0:01 If you've spent more than 5 minutes in
0:03 the online trading world, you've
0:04 definitely heard the classic trading the
0:06 news is gambling or to avoid trading
0:08 high impact news. But what if I told you
0:11 that trading the news isn't gambling? In
0:14 fact, it's the complete opposite. Now, I
0:16 know this sounds crazy as it's literally
0:18 the exact opposite of what most traders
0:20 have been told. So, let me explain.
0:22 First off, technical analysis is
0:24 extremely important and I use it every
0:26 trade I take. But relying on it alone is
0:29 where so many traders get stuck. Why?
0:30 Well, because as a retail trader, the
0:33 playing field just isn't very level. You
0:34 see, the banks, hedge funds,
0:36 institutions, they have more data than
0:38 you, more capital, more resources. In
0:40 other words, a trader that only uses
0:43 candlesticks, well, is going to get
0:45 eaten alive.
0:47 If you're watching this, you probably
0:48 already have a solid understanding of
0:51 how technicals work, which is fantastic.
0:52 You're already halfway there. All that's
0:55 missing is adding the fundamental bias,
0:57 the news. That context ties everything
0:59 together. Now, the news is a massive
1:01 umbrella. Everything from economic data
1:04 like CBI, NFP, job data, rate decisions.
1:05 Then you've got central bank speakers,
1:07 president comments, geopolitics, and
1:08 everything in between. Let's start with
1:10 economic data. This is what people are
1:11 probably most familiar with. And like I
1:13 mentioned before, it contains this type
1:15 of information. In simple terms, it's
1:17 like the statistics of an economy. Now,
1:19 yes, hedge funds and banks absolutely
1:20 have tools to build a rough picture of
1:22 what these numbers might be beforehand,
1:24 but no one knows for certain until the
1:26 official print drops. And the key thing
1:28 is when it does drop, everyone gets that
1:31 number at the exact same time. But wait,
1:32 you're probably thinking, I don't see
1:34 the number instantly. I have a delay and
1:35 by the time I get it, I've missed my
1:37 entry. Well, the reality is most
1:39 beginner retail traders are using
1:40 delayed economic calendars. One of the
1:42 most popular that I see talked about is
1:44 Forex Factory. While it's fine for
1:45 looking when a print is going to be
1:47 released, it is just super basic and
1:48 extremely limited. So, if you're
1:50 relatively new to the fundamentals, I
1:52 would recommend Financial Juice. And no,
1:53 I'm not getting anything from saying
1:54 this. There's no affiliate link in the
1:56 description. This is just something I
1:58 genuinely wish someone told me when I
1:59 first started. It has around a 15-second
2:01 delay, which is still quite a while. So,
2:03 when you take trading seriously, you
2:04 will need to invest in a high-quality
2:06 terminal with zero delay. But for free
2:08 and as a start, it's honestly really
2:09 great. Okay, so once you've got a
2:11 reliable feed of data coming in, the
2:12 real skill is knowing what to do with
2:14 it. You see, once a print released, the
2:16 markets are obviously going to move. But
2:18 how it moves depends on what that data
2:20 actually means. After all, the markets
2:22 react to new information. I mean, it's
2:24 literally in the word news, right? New.
2:25 Let me put it this way. Imagine there
2:27 are two people. Let's call this guy Info
2:29 and let's call this guy market. If info
2:30 tells market something he already knows
2:32 or something he just doesn't really care
2:33 about. Market is probably not going to
2:35 have much of a reaction. But if info
2:37 says something important and surprising,
2:39 market will definitely react. And the
2:40 bigger the surprise, the bigger that
2:46 Take this example, the RBA rate decision
2:48 on the 8th of July. Leading up to it,
2:50 markets are expecting a rate cut. But
2:52 instead, the RBA surprised everyone and
2:54 held rates as they were. The unexpected
2:56 print caused a massive surge in
2:58 Australian dollar strength. And even if
2:59 you didn't trade the actual release,
3:00 knowing what has happened and what's
3:02 unfolding helps you interpret future
3:04 price action. You might want to wait for
3:05 a pullback to trade the extension. Or if
3:07 the Prit is strongly bullish, you'll
3:09 know to avoid taking any sells even if a
3:11 perfect technical setup appears. This
3:12 understanding can not only help you
3:14 profit from the moves, but also keep you
3:16 from getting caught on the wrong side. I
3:17 like to think of it as fundamentals tell
3:19 me why and then the technicals tell me
3:21 when. Now, of course, not every single
3:22 print is going to play out perfectly,
3:24 right? But by following what the
3:25 fundamentals are telling you, you get
3:27 that extra layer of confluence because
3:29 at the end of the day, the fundamentals
3:30 are moving almost everything. And just
3:32 before I get into this trade, I really
3:33 want to stress that what I've covered so
3:35 far is just scratching the surface.
3:37 There are so many different nuances,
3:38 factors, different cases that I just
3:40 haven't touched on because it would make
3:42 this video way too long. So, please keep
3:43 that in mind when you're watching this.
3:45 But for now, let's jump into a trade so
3:46 you can actually see what I'm talking
3:48 about. Okay, we're on the charts. Let's
3:51 break down this trade on USD JPY. So,
3:53 this trade was primarily taken based off
3:55 FOMC meeting minutes, right? But before
3:56 I break that down, I want to quickly
3:58 explain what am I looking for in terms
4:00 of my zones, my key levels, um, and
4:01 everything kind of that nature, right?
4:03 My technicals. So, what I'm doing first
4:04 is I'm coming to a higher time frame,
4:06 right? Usually the 4 hour, sometimes
4:07 it'll be the daily, but yeah, most of
4:09 the time 4 hour. What I want to look for
4:11 is key levels, key zones, right? I want
4:12 to look at zones that you could almost
4:16 eye without having to um to draw your
4:17 key level there. Right? So, what I'm
4:18 going to do is I'm going to the 4 hour,
4:20 mark off my zones, come down to the 1
4:22 hour, mark off half an hour, 15 minute,
4:24 and then I'm usually going to stop at
4:26 the 5m minute. Right? Sometimes I will
4:27 go down to the 1 minute, but most of the
4:29 time it's the 5m minute. Okay. So, now
4:32 to FOMC meeting minutes. So, this
4:34 released at 4:00 a.m. in my time zone,
4:38 right? And I'm going to show you the key
4:41 uh I have them here. Here we go. the key
4:43 uh kind of notes from from this meeting
4:45 right and it is that majority viewed
4:47 inflation risk outweighing employment
4:49 risk. Some participants said it would be
4:50 not said it would not be feasible or
4:52 appropriate to wait for complete clarity
4:53 on the tariffs effects on inflation
4:55 before adjusting monetary policy and the
4:57 full effect of tariffs could take some
5:00 time. Okay, so these comments these
5:01 notes is probably a better way to call
5:03 them are hawkish, right? It's saying
5:05 that inflation risk is going to outweigh
5:07 the employment risk and it's going to
5:08 say there would not be feasible or
5:09 appropriate to wait for complete clarity
5:12 on tariffs. Right? We know that tariffs
5:13 are inflationary, right? Tariffs are
5:15 going to cause higher inflation. So
5:17 there's no point in waiting when we
5:19 already know that it's going to cause,
5:20 right? And obviously here the full
5:22 effect tariffs could take some time. So
5:24 it's all about um it's all about um that
5:27 inflation is a big deal, right? And as
5:29 you can see, this is obviously, like I
5:31 said, hawish. And we want to see some
5:33 bullish reaction from the US dollar. So,
5:35 if I come over here to the dollar, you
5:36 can see at 4:00 a.m. we do get that
5:38 bullish momentum, right? We actually
5:39 break out of structure, which is which
5:40 is what you want to see, right? As well,
5:42 if we come over to to the 10-year at
5:44 4:00 a.m. when this releases, we get
5:46 that bullish momentum as well. Now, the
5:49 reason why I'm trading USD JPY is
5:52 because uh when the when we have the uh
5:54 the bonds push up and the dollar pushes
5:56 up, this is going to push down the
5:57 Japanese yen, right? I'm sure most
5:58 people know that, but just for those who
6:01 didn't. So, that's why I told you JPY
6:03 with a lot of US data because it creates
6:05 that kind of perfect kind of scenario.
6:07 You have the US dollar strength, the
6:08 Japanese weakness or the complete
6:11 opposite way around, right? So, I have
6:12 my fundamental bias in this situation
6:15 which is a bull a bullish bias, right?
6:16 hish comments, bullish bias. I want to
6:19 see USD JPY push to the upside, right?
6:21 But I'm not going to enter until I have
6:23 my technical break. Right? The technical
6:25 break for me is super super important
6:27 because if for example in this trade I
6:29 am hawkish, I am bullish but price comes
6:30 down and breaks structure to the
6:32 downside, then it signals that I've
6:33 missed something, right? Maybe I've read
6:35 something wrong or maybe the markets are
6:36 paying attention to something different,
6:38 right? So it's really important to have
6:40 that technical confirmation of what your
6:42 fundamentals are are thinking, right? So
6:45 for me, like I just said, fundamentals
6:47 bullish, right? I want to see USD USD
6:49 JPY push higher and break structure. As
6:50 you can see, we have this small zone
6:52 here and we push straight out of the
6:54 zone and break structure. At this point,
6:56 it's enough confirmation for me to enter
6:58 that trade. Right? So I'm entering and
7:00 I'm placing my stop loss below the low
7:03 and I'm targeting this high up here.
7:06 Okay. Now, as you can see, after uh you
7:08 know, not very long, we do get quite a
7:09 nice push in the direction that we want
7:11 to, right? You have to remember that
7:13 this through here is Asian session. So,
7:15 you know, we are going to get a bit of
7:16 ranging. There's not as much volume.
7:18 That's quite common for Asian session.
7:20 And then later in the day, we do get to
7:21 we get we push out of this range, right?
7:23 We break structure to the upside. Again,
7:24 confirming that we're still kind of
7:26 holding, I guess you could say, the
7:28 narrative from um from these comments
7:30 right here. My it's still holding. We
7:31 still get that bullish momentum. Let me
7:33 just put that over there. So, at this
7:35 point, as we break structure to the
7:37 upside, I'm moving my stop loss to break
7:39 even. Right, we're far enough away from
7:41 entry. We've got enough confirmation
7:43 that there is no kind of reason why I
7:45 should be taking a loss here. Um, if
7:46 anything, it'll be taking a break even.
7:47 Right. So, moving my stop loss to break
7:49 even. That's why I have this red line
7:50 here. I'm not sure if it's very visible.
7:52 Yep, here it is. And, um, yeah. So, we
7:54 get another I guess you could call this
7:56 like a retest. And then we get a strong
7:57 push in the direction that we wanted to
7:59 go in. Right. Everything's looking great
8:01 so far. Now, something interesting here.
8:05 So right here, this candle at 10:30 the
8:07 um the same day. This is unemployment
8:09 claims, right? This is a high impact
8:12 news release. And uh the reason that I,
8:13 you know, usually I don't hold through
8:15 high impact news because like I said, if
8:16 you don't, no one knows what the print's
8:17 going to be until it's actually
8:19 released, right? But the reason I am
8:21 holding through this is because if you
8:23 can remember these comments here, right?
8:25 Majority viewed inflation risk
8:28 outweighing employment risk, right? This
8:30 outweighing the employment, right? So,
8:32 if we're having unemployment claims, if
8:34 we get a bad print that's going to go
8:36 against me, I don't see that holding as
8:38 much, right? I don't see it pushing
8:39 completely down, right? This is my this
8:40 is my thought process, what I'm
8:43 thinking, right? For example, if we have
8:45 um if we have a good print, right? If we
8:48 have low employment claims, low can't
8:49 speak. If we have unemployment claims
8:51 come lower than expected, which is
8:52 great, we're going to push up in the
8:54 direction anyway. But if they come out
8:56 above expected, right, more people
8:57 filing for unemployment, that's not
8:59 going to be good. But I don't expect the
9:02 markets to hold as much on that because
9:05 of these comments. Right? Inflation risk
9:06 is outweighing the employment risk.
9:10 Right? So in my eyes, it's fair to hold
9:11 this trade um because I don't see the
9:13 reaction if the print does go against
9:15 me. I don't see the reaction being um
9:17 that that big of a deal. I don't see the
9:18 reaction the market's paying that much
9:20 uh putting that much emphasis on the
9:22 print. Right? And the forecast for this
9:26 print was 226 and the actual was 235.
9:28 Right? So it did come above expected
9:30 which is bad right more people filing
9:31 for unemployment. So the print actually
9:33 did come against me which obviously
9:35 ideally is not what I wanted but this
9:36 was going to be very interesting to see
9:38 how price would react right as you can
9:40 see right off the bat we do have quite a
9:43 strong um quite a strong bearish candle
9:45 but right after we start to push back up
9:47 right as you can see here this should be
9:50 it right here. Yeah. So at 10:30 we get
9:52 that massive uh push down but then right
9:54 away we start retracing. Right. This is
9:56 showing me that the markets are
9:58 respecting um what this was saying,
10:01 right? Majority are risking uh the the
10:03 inflation risk is you know it's pay
10:04 getting paid more attention to than the
10:06 unemployment claim. So this is actually
10:09 giving me um more kind of it's making me
10:10 more confident that the trade I'm
10:12 holding I should be holding. Right? For
10:14 example, if we had a if we had the
10:15 unemployment claim print and it just
10:17 completely melted from here and it broke
10:18 kind of this structure point here, then
10:20 I would definitely be thinking to, you
10:21 know, get out of the position because
10:23 it's going against me. that kind of
10:24 narrative I guess you could say is not
10:28 really holding as much. Okay, so I think
10:30 an hour and 15 after that, yes, an hour
10:33 and 15 after that we had manufacturing
10:35 PMI as well. So another high impact news
10:36 release and I'm just going to quickly
10:40 explain this over here. So PMI is
10:42 measured on a scale of 50, right? Above
10:45 50 means that the sector is expanding
10:47 and then below 50 means that this the um
10:49 sector is um getting smaller, right?
10:52 Shrinking, it's decreasing. So obviously
10:53 you know very simple kind of explanation
10:55 here but this is just how you um how
10:56 this is measured right and then
10:58 obviously if it's 50 it's just staying
11:00 the exact same there's no change. So I'm
11:04 going to quickly um put here so we had
11:07 manufacturing let's put this m and we
11:09 have services s and then let's put the
11:11 forecast and then for manufacturing we
11:14 had 49.7
11:17 and then for services we had 54.2.
11:21 Okay, so these are the forecast for um
11:23 for these prints, right? As you can see,
11:26 54.2 is obviously above 50. So that
11:28 sector is still is going to still
11:30 growing if we get as expected, right?
11:32 But for manufacturing, it's 49.7. If it
11:34 comes out at the forecast, we will be
11:37 decreasing. So I have to think about
11:39 what are all the possible scenarios um
11:41 that I'm I could be seeing and how am I
11:42 going to react to each of those
11:44 scenarios. Really quick, my mouth is
11:45 getting dry, but I need to get a drink
11:53 Okay, that's better. So, yeah. So, what
11:55 am I expecting to see if So, I first
11:56 have to think, right, what is the
11:58 absolute best scenario, right? The best
12:00 scenario is obviously both come above
12:02 50, well above the forecast, right? That
12:04 would be great. That would push price
12:06 straight in my direction. Another
12:07 possibility is that both the prints come
12:09 out below 50, right? Showing that
12:10 they're both decreasing. Now, this is
12:12 not what I want to see at all. And if
12:14 that happened, I probably would have
12:16 closed this trade if we broke below some
12:17 serious structure, right? Because it's
12:19 going it's going completely against what
12:20 I'm trading. Why I'm like, you know, my
12:22 whole narrative is completely going
12:23 against it, right? If two things are
12:24 clashing, the best idea is to get out of
12:26 the trade because what most hap what
12:27 most likely will happen is you'll get
12:29 stuck in some consolidation and it'll
12:31 just kind of, you know, range the whole
12:32 time, right? Which you don't want to be
12:35 in. So, what I wanted to see kind of uh
12:37 really uh heavily, obviously, the best
12:39 case scenario is, you know, like I said
12:40 before, both come out way above
12:42 expected, way above 50. That's great.
12:43 Okay. But something else that I really
12:45 wanted to see was I just wanted to see
12:48 both prints come out come above
12:51 I wanted to see both prints come above a
12:53 50. Okay. So for this services I didn't
12:55 actually need to see it come above
12:57 forecast. I just needed to be above 50.
12:58 But for the manufacturing I would need
13:01 it to be above the forecast. Right. So
13:03 um let's come to the actual print. The
13:04 release was actually a great release.
13:07 Right. For manufacturing PMI we had 53.3
13:10 well above 50 and above the forecast.
13:12 And then flash services PMI we had 55.4
13:14 four which is again well above the
13:16 forecast and well above 50 right so from
13:17 that print we have you know straight
13:18 away we have that bullish momentum right
13:20 I'm entering as we're breaking a minor
13:21 structure and then later in that trade
13:23 I'm entering again as we break some more
13:25 significant structure okay please keep
13:27 in mind that these two trades were much
13:29 smaller than my initial trade because um
13:30 yeah that's just how I manage my risk
13:32 you know risk management is super super
13:34 important if you're risking all over the
13:36 place well then you're destined for
13:37 failure right so yeah make sure your
13:39 risk is is in control I have my biggest
13:41 position here and then two smaller
13:43 positions up here. So, as I'm entering
13:45 these, uh, price pushes directly in my
13:47 direction. And actually, around this
13:49 time, I had to go to sleep because I
13:50 was, um, borderline crosseyed because
13:54 I'd been awake for so long. Okay,
13:56 so you can see that the trade did end up
13:58 running and hitting my takerit. Okay,
13:59 which is exactly what I wanted to see.
14:01 Of course, take profit. Perfect. Right.
14:03 So, I hope this was um informative. I'm
14:05 trying to make this as educational as
14:06 possible. You know, the reason I'm
14:10 making these videos is um is because uh
14:11 this is exactly what I wish I had when I
14:12 first started trading, right? There
14:14 isn't really that much out there about
14:15 kind of understanding the fundamentals
14:18 with your technicals. Um and yeah, this
14:19 just this is what I would would have
14:20 wanted to see. So, I hope it is
14:22 educational, informative. Hope you get
14:24 something out of this. Um just keep in
14:25 mind that, you know, if you're watching
14:27 this, there are many things that I'm not
14:29 going over, you know, and I'm sure
14:30 someone in the comments will uh say
14:32 something about you've forgotten this,
14:33 you've forgotten that. Look, I
14:34 understand. I know. I'm trying to keep
14:36 it manageable as I can for most people.
14:38 Um but yeah, this is just my thought
14:40 process throughout the trade. Obviously,
14:41 maybe you've seen this. This is another
14:43 trade that I took um based on the
14:45 Jackson Hole because now the um the
14:47 narrative has kind of changed with rates
14:49 and what Jerome Powell has been saying.
14:50 So um yeah, but that's that's for
14:52 another video. So yeah, I hope you found
14:53 this interesting. I hope you got
14:54 something out of this. If you have any
14:56 questions, drop a comment. Uh send me a
14:57 message. I have my details in the
14:59 description for all of those who have
15:00 messaged me. I am getting back to them.
15:02 Sorry, I've been really busy. But um
15:03 yeah, more videos to come. I'm going to
15:05 be posting much more consistently and I
