0:02 hello everyone today we are taking a
0:05 look at idss and taking a deeper dive
0:08 there our example today will be salana
0:10 but you can use any asset you want these
0:12 principles are going to apply all the
0:15 way across time frames and and across
0:19 any asset and so just adapt accordingly
0:22 to whatever asset you're looking at top
0:25 right here I have a little agenda for us
0:26 we're going to start out with talking
0:28 about time frames quickly then we're be
0:31 jumping into the settings we're going to
0:32 look at back testing settings trading
0:35 style for the Confluence model and then
0:36 playing around with the mean reversion
0:39 standard deviations next we'll look at a
0:42 few examples of where we find Confluence
0:45 across all four of the IEDs models and
0:49 then finally just a note on being aware
0:52 of what's going on in the world to begin
0:54 let's add our indicators in so I'm going
0:56 to go up to indicators invite only and
0:59 then we're going to add confluence mean reversion
1:00 reversion
1:03 optimized Trend and the regular Trend
1:08 okay so these four are what make up the
1:12 iids let's now talk about time frames
1:16 idss has been optimized for the 4H hour
1:18 time frame if you're trading on 4 hours
1:20 you're typically looking to stay in a
1:23 trade for 6 to8 weeks that could be a
1:24 little bit shorter could be a little bit
1:26 longer but generally speaking this is
1:29 going to be a swing trading strategy uh
1:32 in time time frame now 4 hour I think is
1:35 4 hours is uh very forgiving in case you
1:38 do mess up and so uh I would recommend
1:40 for everyone to start on a 4H hour and
1:42 as you get more experienced you can
1:44 start to zoom in to maybe a 1 hour or a
1:47 15 minute or a 5 minute however the
1:50 lower time frame you go the less
1:53 accurate it can be um so always make
1:56 sure to zoom out look at the higher time
1:58 frames you know if we are for example if
2:00 we are in a downtrend here
2:01 on a
2:03 4our even if you go into a 5 minute
2:06 you're probably going to find some blue
2:08 where the trend is turning up and it's
2:10 blue and you're going to say oh it's
2:14 time to get in but overall we're down we
2:16 are in a downtrend on the 4 Hour so be
2:18 careful about what time frame you're
2:20 using so for now in this example we're
2:22 just going to be looking at the 4H hour
2:25 time frame however it does work I adss
2:29 does work on all time frames okay let's
2:30 now take a look at the settings of each
2:32 of the models starting with the
2:34 Confluence model if I go into the
2:37 settings here in the top right our bias
2:39 for now we're going to keep it neutral
2:42 we always want to keep our bias neutral
2:45 until we have identified a opportunity
2:48 or a point where we want to buy and get
2:50 into a position or sell and get and get
2:53 out of a position okay now the back test
2:55 you'll notice right off the bat our win
2:57 rate is only
3:00 68% now one way you can play around with
3:01 the back test is by changing your start
3:04 date okay so currently and by default
3:05 our start date is
3:09 2018 markets change uh over time right
3:13 like we know between now and 2018
3:15 there's been two bull runs well the the
3:17 current one in the previous one and then
3:19 we went through a bare market and so
3:22 what kind of data do we care about what
3:24 kind of data do we want to look at and
3:27 so maybe we're only interested in when
3:29 this bull market started maybe we're
3:32 only interested in when maybe Trump was
3:35 elected okay there's major events in the
3:38 world that change the landscape of the
3:42 markets and so using older data yes it
3:44 can be helpful to know hey does this
3:46 perform over a bare Market does this
3:49 work did this work in the previous cycle
3:51 however for our purposes today I'm
3:55 interested in maybe what happened in the
3:57 last year or two I want recent data has
4:00 this worked for the current market
4:03 landscape again to the back test is just
4:05 a theoretical if you would have hit
4:07 every single one of these buy signals
4:08 and every single one of these sell
4:10 signals what would your win percentage
4:13 be it's very very unlikely that you're
4:16 going to be able to catch every single
4:19 Buy Signal on top of that right we can
4:21 see right off the bat here we have a Buy
4:23 Signal here and a Buy Signal here right
4:26 you wouldn't have taken either of these
4:27 maybe you took this buy when the trend
4:30 flipped here but you definitely wouldn't
4:32 would not have taken this Buy Signal
4:34 because the trend is still orange so
4:37 this automatically right we aren't
4:39 counting that as far as our personal
4:42 track record goes but the back test does
4:45 so just be aware of what the back test
4:48 is it's a theoretical perfect case where
4:51 you take every single one but that's not
4:53 really realistic for you to trade and
4:55 get every single Buy Signal especially
4:57 if the other models aren't saying that
4:59 you should be buying all right jumping
5:01 back in in to the settings here I'm
5:05 going to change my start date to 2023
5:08 okay so I'm just going to go January 1st
5:13 2023 how has that done so since uh
5:16 January 1st 2023 we have a 100% win rate
5:19 okay great that's great I know that at
5:22 least for this bull market we have done
5:23 well we're currently still in a bull
5:26 market so I don't see any reason to not
5:30 have it set up here okay and then as
5:32 always down here entry type is percent
5:35 current capital at 50 and then lifo we
5:40 got 50 here too okay so let's now go
5:42 optimized Trend does not have any
5:45 settings to play with so great going
5:47 down into Trend I have to turn my
5:50 showback test to True let me change my
5:55 date to be the same 2023 first okay so I
5:59 have a 76% win rate now if I change it
6:03 to very tight I have a 98% win rate okay
6:05 so I'm going to keep it on very tight
6:06 for now but you can play around with
6:09 what you like and what is going to give
6:10 you the best win
6:14 percentage same thing down here lifo
6:17 50/50 hit okay there let's go into mean
6:20 reversion now mean reversion same thing
6:23 have to hit my back test to True let's
6:26 go start date up here
6:30 2023 all right lifeo 5050 great so one
6:33 thing I do want to point out and this is
6:38 where um standard deviations really can
6:41 help you you can see we have down here
6:44 let me pull this up so everyone can see
6:47 right we've got a whole bunch of dots in
6:51 here all the of these buy signals well
6:54 for me and for most people you don't
6:56 care necessarily about all of the buy
7:00 signals we really just want outliers or
7:02 things that are really far away from the
7:07 mean so what we can do is let's change
7:08 our styling here this isn't going to
7:11 affect the back test but it can help you
7:14 visually so what I like to do is I set
7:15 to minus
7:17 1.75 and every asset's going to be
7:19 different so you'll have to play around
7:22 and get used to what you like to see
7:26 okay so if I hit okay here now I can see
7:28 that the only signals I really care
7:30 about are going to be the ones outside
7:34 of my cloud here see how we're way down
7:37 here and way up here okay so we we talk
7:40 about these Pico moments and getting in
7:42 when we have these opportunities this is
7:44 what we're talking about mean reversion
7:47 is extremely overextended One Direction
7:50 or the other and when I visually put it
7:52 on my chart like this I can see very
7:56 clearly okay this is overextended okay
8:00 so that is mean reversion 95% rate great
8:02 so now we've dialed in the settings for
8:06 all of our models when you have an 80%
8:10 win rate across uh all of the models
8:12 your win rate really jumps to more like
8:15 95% okay so if all the models can tell
8:17 you the same thing and they have high
8:20 win percentages your trades will almost
8:23 always work out okay so let's take a
8:25 look at some
8:27 examples current day it's February 20th
8:30 today we can see if I Zo in here we have
8:33 been in a major downtrend okay continue
8:37 to bleed lower and lower and lower if I
8:39 turn off the optimized Trend and just
8:41 look at the opt or if I turn off regular
8:44 Trend and just look at optimized Trend
8:47 um it's not looking great as in we're we
8:49 we're definitely in a strong downtrend
8:54 however we can see right now that we
8:56 might just be turning blue here if we
8:58 have a few more green candles here then
9:01 see how skinny this is starting to get
9:03 and it looks like we so we'll either
9:05 break down and we'll continue our
9:07 downtrend or we might break up a tiny
9:10 bit if this turns blue I'll also see I
9:13 got my Buy Signal here and I see my mean
9:16 reversion is outside of my standard
9:19 deviation uh threshold so this is
9:21 actually turning out to be
9:24 potentially a good setup okay we've got
9:26 this outside we've got our Buy Signal
9:28 here now we just need to wait for the
9:32 trend to flip blue okay let's take a
9:36 look at another example back here so
9:39 you'll say well I didn't get a Buy
9:42 Signal down here but this obviously this
9:45 was the uh Trump rally coming into the
9:47 inauguration right this would have been
9:49 great but I didn't get my Buy Signal
9:52 what I can do is go into the settings of
9:55 Confluence and say hey I really think
9:57 that this is an opportunity to buy we
9:58 can see mean reversion has been on the floor
9:59 floor
10:01 right we just had to run up all the way
10:05 back down we're on the floor here trend
10:07 has turned blue I would really like to
10:11 get in okay so I can change my bias here to
10:12 to
10:14 bullish and notice when I change to
10:17 bullish I get my Buy Signal okay so this
10:20 would have gotten you in right around
10:22 here that would have that would have
10:24 been great right and then we hold all
10:28 the way up and your exit point at least
10:31 here on optimized Trend would have been
10:33 somewhere in
10:38 here okay so not bad 35% in just six
10:40 days and that's again that's assuming
10:42 you get out at 250 and not somewhere up
10:44 here in the top so then you'll ask
10:46 yourself well how do I get out earlier
10:50 than that okay so maybe let's turn off
10:52 optimized Trend let's turn on regular
10:55 Trend cuz regular trend on very tight is
10:57 going to be more sensitive okay so now
11:00 you can see Trend changed back here here
11:05 right on the let's see 270 is somewhere
11:08 in here you also have mean reversion on
11:11 this candle way overextended this is up
11:14 to over three you can see this here over
11:17 three we have not had let me draw a
11:18 little line
11:21 here we have not had mean reversion this
11:24 High basically ever okay maybe all the
11:27 way back here and sure enough the last
11:31 instance of this was February 24 okay
11:32 and then we come all the way back down
11:34 before we make our move back to the
11:37 upside okay so that also could have been
11:39 an indication hey maybe you didn't sell
11:42 everything exactly but this is way
11:45 overextended on the mean reversion here
11:47 so at least taking some profits on your
11:50 position on the way up and then when we
11:53 get the orange flip of trend um you can
11:54 exit the position and then of course we
11:57 get our cell signal later all right so
11:59 now that I've entered here I just want
12:01 to make sure I go back to
12:04 neutral and I'll be ready for the next
12:06 opportunity one point that we really
12:09 need to make here you have to be aware
12:14 of the macro situation okay this section
12:18 here this runup was a runup to the uh
12:21 inauguration of President Trump on top
12:24 of that the Trump meme coin that drove
12:27 tons of volume happened at the same time
12:30 okay while the models are great they
12:31 don't know what's going on and so when
12:34 we start to see price get
12:37 overextended somewhere in here yes
12:38 that's a sign that we are overheated but
12:40 it doesn't mean you just have to exit
12:43 right away what is going on in the world
12:46 okay we know that Trump's coming in we
12:48 know that that coin has been craziness
12:50 we probably have further upside okay so
12:51 that's something to be aware of same
12:54 thing back here this is a probably a
12:57 better example here right we had this
13:00 huge run up this was November 4th or
13:03 when Trump did win the election um
13:06 where's my Buy Signal no Buy Signal okay
13:09 let me go to bullish okay even when I go
13:12 to bullish no Buy Signal still however
13:14 if you didn't take that trade you missed
13:17 out on a ton of potential gains well we
13:19 know that the Trump presidency is pro
13:22 crypto when he wins of course we start
13:27 to rally and so something to be aware of
13:29 as well okay to recap I know this has
13:32 been a bit of a longer video start with
13:34 a 4our time frame for the beginners out
13:36 there I think starting on the 4 Hour is
13:39 great however these principles of course
13:41 apply all the way across the board once
13:42 you start getting more advanced you can
13:44 start zooming in more to identify
13:48 exactly where to enter two dial in your
13:51 settings pick a back test date that
13:53 makes sense when has the landscape
13:55 changed for example again maybe the
13:57 Trump election when he won or maybe when
13:59 the bull market started
14:03 pick a appropriate back testing date
14:05 trading style or the trading bias in the
14:08 Confluence model we only change this
14:10 when we want to get more aggressively
14:13 enter or exit a position standard
14:16 deviations they can help us to filter
14:19 out the other signal and only take
14:21 signals on these Pico moments or where
14:25 we're really far overextended next we're
14:27 looking for what we're looking for a Buy
14:30 Signal a mean conversion dots and we're
14:33 looking for Trend to flip again golden
14:37 example here when I Chang to bullish is
14:40 right here we've got the Buy Signal here
14:42 we've got Trend changing blue and we've
14:44 got our little mean reversion dots down
14:48 here great and then make sure you are
14:51 aware of the macro maybe you missed a
14:54 trade uh sometimes it's not too late to
14:56 get in if you're aware of what's going
15:00 on in the world Okay so this was
15:05 idss on salana please use it on whatever
15:06 asset you'd like let me know if you have
15:08 any questions down below and I'll see
