0:02 There is a total lack of seriousness in
0:04 the online trading space. You see, if
0:05 you go online and search [music]
0:07 trading, you are going to get bombarded
0:08 with thousands of videos telling you
0:10 that trading is simple, that trading is
0:12 easy, and that all you need is a simple
0:13 candlestick [music] strategy. When in
0:15 reality, this couldn't be further from
0:18 the truth. This video is not here to
0:19 sell you a dream. It's here to show you
0:22 that trading profitably is very real.
0:23 But most [music] approach it completely
0:25 the wrong way. So many traders struggle
0:27 not because they're bad traders, but
0:28 because they are missing key tools.
0:30 [music] And chances are you're much
0:32 closer to profitability than you
0:34 realize. So let's get into it. One of
0:35 the first things you have to understand
0:37 is that the odds are against you. Okay?
0:39 They are against you big time. You're
0:41 not trading against other random traders
0:42 on the internet. You are trading against
0:44 institutions. Okay? And what do
0:46 institutions have a lot of? They have a
0:48 lot of money, right? They pour millions
0:50 into modeling different strategies,
0:52 millions into trading algorithms, and
0:54 they hire armies of the smartest people
0:56 they can find. Keep in mind, these guys
0:58 are trading the same thing you're
0:59 trading. So if you're only using
1:01 candlestick analysis, you are going to
1:03 get eaten alive, right? I wish there was
1:05 a kind of a nicer way to put this, but
1:07 the truth is as candlestick analysis is
1:09 very important. It's very very limiting.
1:11 And by itself, if you are using this to
1:13 trade, you are most certainly going to
1:15 get eaten alive. So for you to even
1:17 stand a chance, you need to incorporate
1:20 the fundamental analysis, right? The
1:22 fundamentals, the reason why price is
1:24 actually moving. Now here, it's not
1:26 about using one or the other, right?
1:27 It's not about only using fundamental
1:29 analysis and no can and no technical
1:30 analysis, right? Or it's not about only
1:32 using technical analysis and no
1:34 fundamental analysis here. It's about
1:36 using them together because they
1:38 complement each other so so well, right?
1:40 I like to think of it as the technicals
1:41 tell you when. So they give you that
1:43 entry in the trade and the fundamentals
1:45 tell you why, right? That reason why
1:46 you're actually taking the trade, right?
1:49 The reason behind behind the trade. Now,
1:51 a lot of traders are much closer to
1:53 profitability than they realize, right?
1:55 because they've already have such a
1:57 strong technical analysis base that all
1:59 they need is the fundamental bias to
2:01 give them that clarity. Right? Like I
2:02 said in the beginning uh in the intro of
2:04 this video, if you go online and you
2:05 search trading, you're going to get
2:07 bombarded with thousands of videos and a
2:08 lot of these videos are actually
2:10 breaking down technical analysis, right?
2:12 So a lot of people already have this
2:14 solid base, but they lack this
2:16 fundamental understanding, right? So all
2:17 you need is to learn the fundamentals to
2:19 give you that clarity, right? To give
2:21 you that understanding. Now obviously
2:22 first we have to start with what
2:24 actually are the fundamentals right so
2:26 the fundamentals are basically anything
2:27 that affects the price of what you're
2:29 trading so whether you're trading forex
2:30 foreign exchange FX whatever you want to
2:32 call it um whether you're trading gold
2:34 futures whatever right anything that
2:35 affects the price of what you're trading
2:38 now remember fundamentals does not
2:40 directly equal news right obviously
2:41 these can be used together but doesn't
2:44 mean they mean the exact same thing so
2:46 think about it as the news is more so
2:48 the release so the announcement and then
2:50 the fundamentals is more so Why the
2:52 reason the reason why the announcement
2:53 actually matters right so you have the
2:55 announcement and then the reason why the
2:56 announcement actually matters right so
2:58 they do they are very similar but they
2:59 do have those key key differences which
3:01 is really important to to kind of
3:02 differentiate between them now when we
3:04 come to types of information obviously
3:06 we have our economic data right our CPI
3:08 GDP unemployment claims and again many
3:10 many more obviously I can't put every
3:11 piece here otherwise it won't fit on the
3:13 screen right below that we have central
3:15 banks this is extremely important to pay
3:17 attention to right monetary policy rate
3:18 changes press conferences quantitive
3:20 tightening quantitative easing then we
3:22 have geopolitical events right elections
3:24 trade conflicts sanctions then we have
3:26 market sentiment is the market risk on
3:28 is the market risk off do we have market
3:30 fear do we have market optimism and then
3:31 again many many other things which I
3:33 haven't put on here right but the key
3:36 thing here is to use this information
3:37 and again the other ones and again ones
3:39 that I haven't listed obviously but add
3:41 this information with your technical
3:43 analysis right to give you the
3:45 understanding of what is going on right
3:46 now I know there is a lot in here right
3:48 it takes time to understand this stuff
3:50 but once you start to understand this,
3:51 you're going to understand trading with
3:53 this whole new clarity, right? You're
3:55 going to understand why price is
3:57 actually moving and it's just going to
3:58 completely revolution, like just
4:00 completely change your trading. Right
4:02 now, instead of me just going on and
4:03 talking about this, I'm actually going
4:05 to show you a trade that I took um using
4:06 this this analysis, using technical
4:08 analysis and fundamental analysis.
4:10 Right? So, this is the trade right here
4:12 on AUD/USD and it was primarily taken
4:14 off a CPI release, right? So, you can
4:15 see I entered right here and this big
4:18 candle is obviously the CPI uh release.
4:20 Okay, so first off we have to start with
4:22 what actually is CPI. Okay, so CPI
4:24 stands for consumer price index and then
4:27 in short CPI is the change in price of
4:28 goods and services. So for example,
4:29 these goods and services could be
4:32 housing, food, transportation, clothing
4:34 and many more. Um but let's say in this
4:36 situation we have a higher CPI, higher
4:37 CPI than is expected, right? An elevated
4:39 CPI, these goods and services are going
4:40 to be more expensive, right? In a
4:42 situation where we have a lower CPI,
4:44 these goods and services are going to be
4:45 less expensive. Right? Now again this is
4:47 a very simple explanation. And I'm not
4:48 trying to confuse anyone here. There is
4:49 a little bit more to it. But again,
4:51 yeah, trying to keep this simple and
4:53 easy easy to understand. Okay. Now, CPI
4:55 is so important because it is one of the
4:58 key indicators of inflation. Okay. Very
4:59 very important. Um because yeah, it's
5:01 basically the most important indicator
5:03 in in terms of inflation. So, central
5:04 banks are going to be paying very very
5:07 close attention uh to to this CPI
5:10 figure. Okay. Now, in this situation, we
5:13 had AUD CPI forecasted in at a 3.6 and
5:16 then we had it released at a 3.8. Okay.
5:18 Okay, so obviously the print has in this
5:20 case released higher than expected. Now
5:21 I just want to put a quick little
5:23 disclaimer in here. There is quite a big
5:25 um context around this trade. So it's
5:26 very important when you're trading like
5:28 this to understand the context. I'm not
5:29 going to go into it too much because
5:30 again it would make this kind of I want
5:32 to keep this simple. It would make it
5:34 quite uh complicated for for anyone that
5:35 doesn't really know what I'm talking
5:37 about. So just keep in mind that if you
5:38 know if you've noticed that I haven't
5:39 I've missed anything in particular
5:40 that's because I'm trying to make this
5:42 kind of easy to understand, right? Um
5:43 but yeah, I will be going in depth
5:45 further in other videos, right? So just
5:47 to put that out there. Now once we get
5:49 our release, we need to think about what
5:51 is this going to mean to the central
5:53 bank. Okay. So in this case, obviously
5:55 we have the AUD CPI. So we're going to
5:57 be um referring to the Reserve Bank of
5:58 Australia, right? Otherwise known as the
6:00 RBA. If in if in a situation I'm trading
6:02 US CPI, obviously I'll be looking at the
6:04 Federal Federal Reserve. Oops. And then
6:06 for example, if I'm trading in the UK
6:07 CPI, I'll be looking at the Bank of
6:08 England and so on so forth. Right? But
6:11 here, Australian dollar CPI, uh we're
6:12 going to look at the Reserve Bank of
6:14 Australia. So in this situation, we have
6:16 a high CPI and signaling that
6:18 potentially we have higher inflation. So
6:19 what's this going to do? It's going to
6:21 cause the central bank to shift to more
6:25 of a hawkish stance. Okay? So hawish is
6:26 just basically a stance where the
6:28 central bank is what you call more
6:30 restrictive. Okay? So their focus is
6:32 primarily on uh on inflation as opposed
6:34 to helping the labor market. Right? The
6:35 opposite of hawkish is you have
6:37 doubbish. So in a doubbish situation,
6:39 you have the central bank focusing more
6:40 on the labor market and not as much on
6:42 inflation. But obviously here we have
6:44 this higher CPI signaling this potential
6:45 higher inflation. So we're going to
6:48 shift to more of a hawkish stance. Right
6:49 now because of this print it doesn't
6:50 mean we're automatically completely
6:53 hawish like 100% hawkish. It just means
6:54 we're going to tilt this kind of almost
6:56 like a needle if we have from this side
6:57 to be hawkish to be doubbish. We're
6:59 going to tilt to more of the um side of
7:01 hawish. Right? So yeah restrictive.
7:03 We're in a hish stance because of this
7:06 higher CPI. Right now what is going to
7:07 be the market impact? What do we expect
7:09 to actually happen? So because of this
7:10 hawkish stance, the currency is
7:13 typically going to gain strength, right?
7:14 This is because obviously in a hish
7:16 stance, um they they are kind of trying
7:18 to tackle inflation. So they're going to
7:19 have interest rates higher. They
7:21 potentially hike rates. They'll
7:23 potentially hold them for longer. Um and
7:24 when we have higher rates, uh you're
7:26 going to get a bigger return on your
7:27 money, right? So people are going to
7:28 want to hold their money in that
7:29 currency. And then again, because more
7:30 people are going to want to hold on the
7:32 currency, you have more capital flow and
7:33 then the currency is going to gain
7:36 strength, right? So just before we jump
7:37 into the charts, I'm actually going to
7:38 break it down and show you everything
7:39 how I entered. But I want to quickly
7:41 make sure we understand that the CPI
7:43 first we get the CPI released. So we've
7:44 come out higher than expected. Then we
7:46 have to come to what does this actually
7:48 mean to the central bank. Right? In this
7:49 situation we have had that means we're
7:51 going to be in a more of a hawkish
7:52 stance. And then because of this hish
7:54 stance, how is the currency going to
7:56 react? Right? And this situation we
7:57 expect the currency in this case the
7:59 Australian dollar to gain strength off
8:01 this print. Okay. So now let's jump into
8:03 the charts so I can actually break
8:04 everything down and show you exactly
8:05 what I'm looking at. Okay, so we're on
8:07 the charts. This is the trade right here
8:09 and let's get straight into it. So first
8:10 things first, before I'm entering the
8:12 trade, before I'm looking at any news,
8:14 any fundamentals, I want to come up to a
8:15 higher time frame, which will usually be
8:17 the 1 hour. And I want to mark off clear
8:19 levels that are most likely going to get
8:21 respected. Okay, so obviously you can
8:22 see my levels here. Again, I'm not
8:24 trying to come down to the 1 minute,
8:25 mark off every possible reaction because
8:27 more often than not, those levels are
8:28 going to get blown straight past. Okay,
8:30 so clear obvious levels that are most
8:31 likely going to get respected. If you
8:33 want to pause here, you can see the
8:34 levels that I have. Okay, so I'm going
8:36 to work myself all the way down to the
8:38 5m minute, which is majority of the time
8:39 where I'm the time frame that I'm
8:41 actually entering most of my trades in.
8:43 Okay, so actually let me go into replay
8:45 just get rid of this before this trade
8:47 plays out. Okay, perfect. So obviously
8:48 this is what I'm looking at before uh
8:50 before the trade before that CPI print
8:51 releases before I'm actually entering
8:53 the trade. So what I want to look for is
8:56 a range or a key uh piece of structure.
8:58 Okay, obviously ideally I want to see a
9:00 range and you can see right here we have
9:02 a very very clear range. So this is this
9:03 is great, right? Obviously not every
9:05 situation um we're going to have a
9:06 perfect range like this. We're going to
9:08 have you know obviously varying
9:09 different price movements but the key
9:12 thing that I want to see here is a key
9:14 structure. Okay, so specific structure
9:15 that I can see be broken in the
9:17 direction that I am planning. Okay, so
9:19 I've got my levels marked off. I found
9:21 in this case my range, my clear points
9:23 of structure. Now I'm going to shift to
9:25 the CPI release and think what do I
9:27 want? um what am I expecting for this
9:29 print? And how am I going to react based
9:31 off the outcome? Okay, so for simplicity
9:32 sake, let's just say we have three
9:34 different outcomes. Okay, we have a
9:35 higher than expected, we have a lower
9:36 than expected, and then we have come out
9:38 as expected. Okay, now just really
9:40 quickly, as expected, I'm usually not
9:41 trading because it doesn't give the
9:43 markets a clear direction. Usually when
9:45 that happens, I will stay out. But in
9:46 this situation, I need to think what
9:48 would offer me the the best trade,
9:49 right? What what do you think is the
9:51 best what do I think, sorry, is the best
9:53 tradable opportunity for for for a
9:55 print. Okay, so I'm not going to get
9:56 into it too much cuz this kind of gets
9:59 into the context, but basically for me,
10:01 um, yeah, I won't get into that, but for
10:03 me, I wanted to see a higher a higher
10:04 than expected CPI release because that
10:07 was most likely going to give the the
10:09 best uh possible move. Okay, so
10:11 obviously I'm thinking before the print
10:13 release is if I see a high CPI release,
10:14 I want to see immediate Australian
10:16 dollar strength. I want to see a break
10:17 out of this range and that will be
10:19 enough for me to enter the trade. Okay,
10:21 so I can skip here. Is this how I do it? Yes.
10:23 Yes.
10:26 Is it working? Okay, so I can skip
10:27 across to see this is the release that
10:30 we have right here. So this is CPI
10:31 releasing and as like we've already
10:33 discussed before um we came out higher
10:35 than expected. Okay, I think it was a
10:38 forecasted in 3.6 came out at a 3.8. We
10:39 can see that we get that immediate
10:41 Australian dollar strength and we have
10:44 um the clear break above this above this
10:45 structure above this zone above this
10:46 range right whatever you want to call
10:48 it. So for me I have my technical reason
10:50 when which is this break of structure to
10:52 the upside and then I have my
10:54 fundamental reason why which is the
10:55 reason yeah backing the whole trade
10:57 which is this CPI release um and then
10:58 obviously the higher than expected
11:00 because what we've discussed before with
11:01 the hawkish stance and all this kind of
11:03 strength right so that's enough for me
11:04 to enter the trade you can see that I'm
11:05 entering the trade my entry is right
11:09 here now keep in mind I am using a um a
11:11 news terminal so I get the data really
11:13 really uh uh really really quickly right
11:14 I get it basically the second it's
11:16 released I would strongly recommend and
11:18 to use a news news terminal. If you're
11:19 using, for example, like an economic
11:22 calendar, um you you can get quite a
11:23 delay and sometimes you won't even be
11:25 able to catch catch these trades, right?
11:26 So for me, I get the data the second
11:28 it's released. I'm looking here. I see
11:30 my news terminal. I see the print come
11:31 out higher than expected. Like I've
11:33 already prepared. I want to see that
11:34 breakup structure. Soon as I get that
11:35 breakup structure, I can see that
11:37 strength coming in, I'm entering that
11:39 trade. Okay. So I enter the trade. My
11:41 stop loss is below this small structure
11:42 point right here. And then I have my
11:45 takerit right targeting this high up
11:47 here. Okay, so how do I get out of this?
11:49 Here we go. So, as you can see,
11:51 obviously the trade ran quite nicely um
11:54 and hit my my takerit. Okay, now this
11:56 red line is represents my my stop loss.
11:58 I do like to trail my stop loss. There
12:01 is no reason for me to be in a trade um
12:02 where I'm in profit and then for that
12:04 trade to be a loser, right? So, when I'm
12:05 in a certain amount of profit, I like to
12:07 base it off this uh indicator called
12:09 pivot points. You can search that up.
12:11 Um, and basically I like to find my
12:13 trailing stop loss points or below
12:14 pieces key pieces of structure while I'm
12:16 in profit. Right? So obviously I had it
12:17 down here and then I think when I
12:19 actually remember when price uh pushed
12:21 up here I moved my stop loss. I think it
12:23 was a pivot point that was hit right
12:25 now. Obviously looking back at this I
12:26 probably should have held this trade. I
12:28 was actually able to get into a few
12:30 scaling positions here. But obviously I
12:31 don't know the future right? I need to
12:34 stick to my plan to what I I've prepared
12:36 for for this trade. Okay. But um yeah,
12:39 you can see the reason CPI, we got those
12:40 technical breaks. I was able to enter
12:42 stop loss below, target the high, and
12:44 you can see we hit uh we hit my take
12:46 profit. Okay, so I hope this was um
12:47 educational. I hope this is easy to
12:49 understand. Um obviously, there's a lot
12:51 more to it. I haven't I've missed quite
12:52 a few things. So if you know, if you
12:53 think I've missed something, don't
12:55 worry. I'm trying to make this easy
12:56 understand, but I'll be able to go
12:58 through more in future videos. And yeah,
13:00 again, hope you found this educational.
13:01 If you have any questions, feel free to
