0:04 Now we'll be looking at FX risk management.
0:06 management.
0:11 I've spoken about price risk briefly in
0:15 my previous video. And um now FX risk is
0:18 not something that is totally new to you
0:22 because we covered it in FM. I'm going
0:25 to remind you again, please go to my FM
0:28 videos and watch those videos on risk
0:30 management. It will help you to give you
0:33 a very strong foundation especially if
0:35 you did not do FM with me. That video
0:38 will really help you. Yeah. In this
0:40 space. Remember we said usually you have
0:42 three types of FX risk. Just a quick
0:45 refresher. You have the transaction
0:48 risk, you have the translation risk, and
0:52 you have the economic risk.
0:54 This is the focus for now. This
0:55 transaction risk we're going to be
0:57 looking at. So,
1:01 and when we talk about transaction risk,
1:03 how do we manage it? What's our risk response?
1:06 response?
1:10 The response can either be internal
1:12 or external.
1:14 When you're talking about internal
1:16 saying either you want to invoice in
1:18 local currency, so which means you don't
1:20 want to employ anybody to help you, you
1:23 just want to do it as a company. So, you
1:24 might want to invoice in a local
1:27 currency. So when you sell to foreign
1:28 company you don't issue in the foreign
1:30 currency you issuing your own local
1:33 currency such that you are not exposed
1:36 to any conversion. You can also do matching
1:44 on net and I'm going to touch on that in
1:45 this video. The difference between
1:48 matching and netting is a similar
1:50 concept. The only difference is that
1:51 when you talk about netting you're
1:53 talking about within the group. This is
2:02 But this is external parties involved
2:06 for matching. So here maybe you are a
2:08 vendor. The vendor is also you have AR
2:11 and AP you can match
2:15 and maybe you are owing a vendor.
2:17 You also expect money from a customer.
2:20 The timing is the same. The currency is
2:24 the same. You can also match. Those are
2:26 external people involved, external
2:29 parties involved. And that's matching.
2:30 Netting is when you have everything
2:32 going on within the group, subsidiaries
2:34 owning each other in different currencies.
2:35 currencies.
2:38 I'm going to deal with netting in this
2:42 video. Like I said, yeah. So, XNAV
2:44 XNAV
2:46 method involves the use of derivatives.
2:49 So, you can use forwards.
2:51 Let me add one more to the internal lead
2:54 payments. All of that you will see
2:57 details in my FM videos. So back to
3:00 external fact methods forward can use features
3:02 features
3:19 Those are external methods.
3:22 So I'll quickly speak about internal
3:25 method which is a bit new to you and
3:30 that is netting not totally new but
3:34 I've spoke about net like I said netting
3:38 and matching are quite similar.
3:41 So the only difference is just that the
3:42 netting is within the group while
3:44 matching involves external pattern. What
3:47 are you trying to do? You're saying that
3:50 before you go to external party you want
3:55 to handle the FX risk first internally
3:58 by netting
4:00 asset from liability or income from
4:02 expenses. So take for instance what
4:06 we're saying is this. Imagine that A is
4:19 You pay B. Then
4:22 C is going to pay A
4:31 Let's say A is a UK company.
4:34 which means both transactions are
4:36 happening in foreign currency. If A is
4:38 going to be very inefficient, it's going
4:42 to try and edge $100 and edge $50
4:44 separately. But edging comes at a cost
4:48 as well. So that is very inefficient.
4:50 When you find yourself in situation, the
4:52 timing is the same. The currency is the
4:54 same. The best thing for A to do is to
4:57 realize that he can actually net 100
5:00 from 50 and the net exposure is just
5:04 $50. So when A wants to edge, A only
5:07 needs to think about edging externally
5:12 $50 and not $100 and another $50 because
5:14 the lower the amount of what you're
5:17 trying to edge, the lower your cost.
5:19 This is just between few parties.
5:22 Sometimes it get more complicated and
5:24 that is the part I want to do with you
5:33 take few minutes to go through the
5:35 question like I always advise then watch
5:38 the way I'm going to take care of the question.
5:39 question.
5:41 So what is going on here is that all these
5:43 these
5:45 companies you have four companies
5:50 involved here. You have company P, Q, R
5:52 R
5:55 and S.
5:58 They are owing each other.
6:02 This company P is actually
6:04 a parent company that has three
6:06 subsidiaries. This is the parent company.
6:08 company.
6:12 Q is in Europe. R is in US. S is in Canada.
6:15 Canada.
6:19 And we have all the
6:21 transactions, the balances owed to each other.
6:28 These are all foreign currencies.
6:32 We have 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8. Imagine trying
6:34 to edge eight different balances. That's
6:36 a lot of cost
6:38 but instead
6:41 this is where neting comes handy so that
6:45 you will know what you have left after
6:47 you have netted off everything between
6:50 or amongst the group members. How much
6:51 do you need to reach out to an external
6:54 party for edging?
6:56 So there are two methods that can be used.
7:03 The first one is a tabular method which
7:05 I will show you. The second one is a
7:13 Either method is very simple and
7:15 straightforward. What you are saying
7:17 here is
7:19 regardless of the method you are using
7:21 please follow the steps. The first step
7:30 So which means I'm saying convert
7:34 all the balances
7:37 balances
7:40 to one currency. And usually it's better
7:42 to convert to the currency of the
7:46 parent. Yeah. Here, let's say pounds.
7:47 So, we're going to convert everything to
7:50 pound. Then we can do our table. And
7:52 what do you do on the table? First of
7:55 all, recognize the fact that you have
8:00 four companies. So I'm going to put P Q
8:09 I will say old by
8:12 P owed by Q. Then who are they paying
8:15 to? So going to pay to again going to
8:21 have on vertical axis P Q RS. So this is
8:25 paid to column.
8:28 is owed by. So
8:33 what we're saying owed by P
8:35 to S. So which means P is going to pay S3
8:38 S3
8:42 $3 million Canadian dollars. So P
8:46 will pay S3 million Canadian dollars. But
8:48 But
8:50 remember what I said, you need to
8:51 convert to one currency. So everything
8:53 that I'm picking here, I'll be
8:56 converting it into pounds. The exchange
8:59 rate has been given. Please note, you
9:01 always do the conversion
9:09 right? Because after everything is done,
9:10 once you are done with anything, you're
9:13 going to convert back to the whatever
9:14 you have left should be converted back
9:17 to the normal currency at the same spot
9:25 rate again. Okay? So owed by P paid to S
9:27 is3 million Canadian dollars which is
9:33 million
9:36 if you convert at 1.5
9:40 okay keep going next one is owed by P
9:42 paid to R5 million
9:44 million
9:46 if you convert that at the exchange rate
10:05 so Q is going to pay
10:08 R which is here.
10:13 Q is going to pay R4 $4 million
10:17 and that is at exchange rate Q2R
10:25 remember to use exchange rate Q2R is in
10:29 US dollars so you using 1.6 six rate
10:32 very important. The next one is Q paying
10:36 to S 7 million Canadian.
10:38 If you convert that as well, that will
10:49 The next one is I'll pay how much
10:52 I will be paying as $2 million Canadian
10:56 dollars. And that is equivalent to 1.3.
11:04 And R will have to pay P which is up
11:08 here. I was paying P how much? $6
11:10 million US.
11:24 S is going to be paying Q.
11:27 How much
11:38 We convert S paying Q of 12 million at
11:41 1.2. Yeah, that's 10. Then the last one
11:47 is S paying P and S will be paying P
11:50 5 million Canadian which is equivalent to
12:05 3.33.
12:07 So now what we've done is we've been
12:09 able to plot the cash flows on the
12:13 table. So life is now super easy cuz all
12:15 we need to do is to get the total for
12:19 each side and each person. So this
12:21 column is owed by so the total amount
12:24 owed by P is addition of this and this
12:55 So we have that that is we enlarge it.
13:15 Now let's see what is going on with the
13:29 paid to paid to paid to paid to so how
13:31 much is paid to P
13:34 the total amount that's paid to P is 3.8
13:37 + 3.3 now we are doing horizontal addition
13:39 addition
13:48 this is 10
13:51 only 10 is paid to Q how much is paid to
14:07 the total amount paid to S
14:11 is 2 4.67 67 and 1.3 and that amounts to eight.
14:13 eight.
14:17 So we have all the information that we
14:21 need because all we need to do now is to
14:25 understand that if you are owing someone
14:29 and you expecting a receivable then you
14:33 can net off. So what you can do is now
14:36 that you've plotted the cash
14:38 on this initial table that we did this
14:42 one then you can do a summary table that
14:46 helps a lot and with that you can be
14:48 rest assured that you are not missing
14:50 anything out. So you have account
14:54 receivable and account payable for each
14:57 company. So let's start from the parent
15:00 to subsidiary Q, subsidiary R and
15:04 subsidiary S. Let's find out what they
15:08 have are they have and the AP they have
15:11 amongst the group. With that we can
15:13 determine what the net position is for
15:17 each company and decide on who do we
15:19 need to
15:22 make contact with externally to hedge
15:27 the leftover balance. So for P
15:29 look at the initial table you have owed
15:34 by owed by is definitely a liability. So
15:37 for P is owed by is downward right and
15:39 that is 5.13.
15:50 So that is account payable of 5.13
15:53 7.17 for Q 5.1
15:55 5.1
16:01 for R 13.3 for S. Then receivable is on
16:04 this line this A R column which is paid
16:06 to because you must have account
16:08 receable for someone to be paying you.
16:12 So P that's 7.08
16:15 Q is 10 5.63
16:21 and 8.
16:23 That is it. Then the next thing is to
16:25 find the net and that's why it's called
16:30 netting. So the net for P will be let me
16:38 is account receivable the positive of 1
16:43 96 and yeah approximately Q is also
17:00 and um S is liability
17:03 is 5 3.
17:09 So
17:11 this is the net situation that we find ourselves
17:13 ourselves
17:20 It's actually showing that the main
17:24 transaction that we're having is S
17:28 having to pay
17:31 P 1.96 Q
17:33 Q 2.83
17:36 2.83
17:39 and S 0.54
17:44 and that is why S is owing 5.3.
17:46 So and that is happening in two months
17:50 time. So which means looking at the
17:53 situation on ground now the group
17:55 actually just have
18:00 a liability of 5.3 and this is the area
18:02 where the group needs to focus on. So if
18:04 there's anything to be edged this is
18:06 just 5.3 then it's veg. They don't have
18:09 to edge all these eight items that you
18:10 see here. They don't have to edge all of
18:12 these items
18:14 individually because if they have to do
18:16 it individually then there's a lot of
18:18 transaction cost a lot of fees that they
18:20 will be paying but by the time you
18:22 finish netting you realize that you only
18:25 have few transaction to take care of
18:27 that is using table for this same
18:31 example we can use diagram and that's
18:33 what I'm going to show you right now
18:39 All right.
18:41 So let me
18:43 let's use
18:45 remember what I said there are two ways
18:47 of doing this. You can use tabular or
18:49 graphical. Let's try and use the
18:53 graphical approach for the same. I mean
18:57 don't forget like I said the first step
19:01 is always conversion to one currency
19:03 usually the parent currency and
19:05 [clears throat] in this example is
19:08 pounds. So we've done that before. So
19:11 what we just need to do is to put the
19:14 companies in a form of graph. So we have
19:19 four companies P Q RS. So I'm going to
19:22 put on a graph P Q
19:23 Q
19:26 R S
19:31 from what we seen we know that R
19:34 is owing S
19:38 13 from the conversion that we have done
19:47 R we have to pay S
19:51 no not 1.3 actually cuz that is uh 2
19:55 million and if you convert to
20:00 with the exchange rate that will give us 1.3.
20:02 1.3.
20:04 So R is OS
20:09 1.3. So put 1.3 here. We also know that
20:38 put two there.
20:41 I've done P will pay R. Q will pay R as
20:45 well. So this way
21:00 that's 7 million Canadian dollars and if
21:13 R will pay S. We've done that. 1.3
21:17 R will pay P as well. So you can see
21:19 there's another line that needs to come here.
21:21 here.
21:30 and S will pay Q. So there's another
21:33 line going up this way.
21:36 S will pay Q
21:44 S is paying Q10 million.
21:46 million.
21:55 million Canadian dollars. And if you
22:08 and that's everything. So we've plotted
22:10 all the cash flows on the graph. So
22:13 please pay attention to this carefully
22:16 because this is very important and
22:18 follow the steps. Remember step one I
22:22 said convert to one currency. Step two
22:31 Step three. Now it's time to start
22:33 elimination. The first step of
22:38 elimination is to cancel bilateral transaction.
22:40 transaction.
22:41 And what [snorts] do I mean by bilateral
22:43 transaction? Anywhere you see arrow
22:44 going opposite direction like this.
22:47 That's what I mean by bilateral. And in
22:49 this example, we have two of them. In
22:52 fact, three of them. There's one here.
22:55 There's another one here. And there's
22:57 another one here.
22:59 So we have three bilaterals that we have
23:02 to cancel and we have to cancel with the
23:06 lowest amount. So take for instance
23:10 for bilateral one we have 10 and 4.67
23:11 because it's straightforward. What is
23:14 happening is that if S is meant to pay Q
23:17 10 and Q is meant to pay S 4.67 we can
23:21 net it off and say 10 - 4.67 that is
23:24 5.33. So that means S is left with
23:30 paying Q. So next, so plot PQ
23:32 RS. So
23:34 this one we've taken care of it. Then
23:47 This one is not a bilateral, so we are
23:49 not dealing with it yet. So we'll keep
23:51 it there.
23:52 This is not a bilateral. We'll keep it there.
23:55 there.
23:57 Now let's deal with the bilateral number
24:00 two. This one in the middle when P is
24:03 meant to pay S2 and S is meant to pay P
24:06 3.33. So we can eliminate that as well
24:09 and know that. Okay. So we are only left
24:11 with S
24:21 and we can eliminate net the third
24:27 bilateral 3.8US 8 - 3.13 and that is
24:31 still owing after netting I will be
24:34 owing P. So I will have to still pay P 0.67
24:43 and with that there's no more bilateral
24:46 that we have to deal with.
24:49 Once we've dealt with bilateral
24:51 then we need to look at the trilateral.
24:56 Those are the three-way direction
24:59 [snorts] and that's triangle. So
25:01 anywhere you can find a triangle, you
25:03 know that
25:08 you have to deal with it elimination.
25:10 And where are the triangles in this that
25:14 we have left? We have triangle P
25:18 R S as you can see it
25:21 is a triangle.
25:24 And likewise we have another triangle
25:27 that is
25:37 So those are the two triangles that we
25:39 have to eliminate. Once we eliminate all
25:42 the triangles, we're done. So, let's
25:44 start with the first triangle, PRS. So, eliminate
25:56 using the smallest
25:59 side. So, when you're eliminating
26:02 triangle, you look at the smallest side
26:04 and you do it from the understanding of
26:06 the transaction perspective. Please
26:09 don't just cancel out because the
26:11 direction of the arrow matters. And this
26:13 is where it gets tricky. I need you to
26:16 pay attention. PQ
26:17 PQ RS.
26:37 When you look at what is happening with
26:43 P R S, you discover that R is paying 67
26:48 to P. R is also paying 1.3 to S and S is
26:52 paying 1.3 to P.
26:56 So if you look at it, how can we
27:01 you look at it you realize that okay you
27:03 need to work with the smallest figure
27:05 and that is 0.67
27:07 so how can we take that off if we need
27:09 to take 67 off which means if I would
27:12 not have to pay P67
27:15 then someone would need to pay P
27:25 R will not pay P 0.67 67 but will need
27:30 to ask another person to help to pay P.
27:34 And who will help to pay P?
27:39 R is also supposed to pay S 1.3.
27:43 So which practically means that
27:48 R is owing two people 67 and 1.33.
27:55 I will pay it to S
27:59 this 67 I'll give it to S then S can
28:01 just pay everything
28:05 for me. So if I I'm only supposed R is
28:08 only supposed to pay 1.3 to S. But
28:10 because we want to eliminate the
28:14 smallest figure we say okay yeah
28:16 I'm owing S. I will give it to S. So
28:19 which means I'll now be giving S 1.3 + 67
28:21 67
28:25 which makes it uh 1.97.
28:28 Once I give to S, S S will help me to
28:31 remit to P. So instead of S remitting
28:35 1.33 to P, S will be remitting 1.33 and
28:38 67 to P and that is how we're going to
28:40 eliminate that. So which means this
28:42 direction will will mean will now be
28:45 valued at 1.97
28:47 and suddenly
28:51 this guy as well would change to two
28:55 actually because when you add 67 to 1.33
28:57 you have two and that takes care of that
28:58 triangle. Now we don't have triangle
29:02 again but we still have triangle
29:06 let me put it here. This triangle QRS
29:08 is still there.
29:10 This is 5.33
29:15 and this is 2.5. Please pay attention.
29:18 Gradually we eliminating. Now let's
29:29 and like I always say it must always
29:31 come from a place of understanding
29:32 because there's no one way of
29:34 eliminating. You can't just deduct you.
29:38 Sometimes you have to add
29:40 this part. There's nothing that's going
29:42 to happen to it. We already know there's
29:44 no more triangle there. This remains two.
29:46 two.
29:50 This remains 1.97.
29:53 There's nothing going on there.
29:55 Okay. No, this might not remain 1.97.
29:56 Remember, it's part of the triangle that
29:59 we want to eliminate. Now QRS cuz this
30:06 is is part is what we want to eliminate
30:08 now. So which means these three lines
30:13 will change only line S to P will remain
30:17 the same. So we always work with this
30:20 smallest figure.
30:23 We have 1.97 here.
30:28 We have 2.5 here and we have 5.33 here.
30:31 If we use the smallest figure to
30:33 eliminate, how does that help us? That's
30:35 first thing you have to check. So which
30:37 means if R will not have to give money
30:39 to S,
30:44 who will pay S on his behalf?
30:46 As we can see, there's nobody paying.
30:49 Now S is practically the one paying. So
30:55 S is paying Q 5.33 but Q is paying R.
30:57 So the easiest thing to eliminate here
31:00 actually is what Q is paying R because
31:03 you can say Q does not have to pay R actually
31:05 actually because
31:08 because
31:12 if S is meant to give Q a sum that is as
31:14 much as 5.33
31:19 then Q can forfeit 2.5 out of that money
31:23 and say S should actually
31:27 pay R for name
31:29 and see how it's going to look. So what
31:32 you are saying now is that 2.5 will
31:35 reduce this then S will now have
31:37 something like a bilateral here paying
31:42 to S 2.5 S pay to R 2.5
31:45 and Q will now be
31:48 deducting that 2.5 from this because it
31:51 mean Q will want to forfeit 2.5 out of
31:55 5.33 which means that this S O will be less
31:57 less
32:00 and that'll be 5.33 minus plus 2.5 which
32:06 and this bilateral will now be taken
32:08 care of because that is meant to pay S
32:12 1.97 before is now looking at the
32:14 possibility of receiving 2.5 from S and
32:16 that's a bilateral forming and you have
32:19 to eliminate it which means that arrow
32:22 will change direction
32:25 and all of a sudden turns this way and
32:30 2.5 and 1.97 give you 0
32:32 53 three
32:46 and you can see that is exactly what we
32:50 had before 2 2.83 A3 from the tabular
33:00 that 5.3 that S is owing is what has
33:04 been shared into these five places yeah
33:05 yeah
33:08 which you can see S is meant to pay P 1.96
33:10 1.96
33:19 S is meant to pay Q 2.83 83 and 0.54.
33:24 This is 2.83 and 0.53. Very similar. So