0:01 in today's video I'll be talking about
0:04 how to make money betting on basketball
0:06 and predominantly the NBA the NBA is one
0:08 of the most profitable Sports when it
0:10 comes to positive EV and Arbitrage
0:12 betting for Sharp bets primarily because
0:15 of two reasons number one is the number
0:17 of games in a season and number two is
0:19 the effect of one particular player on
0:21 the outcome of the entire game
0:23 fundamentally Arbitrage and positive EV
0:25 bets exist because of Market
0:28 inefficiencies AKA Sportsbook mistakes
0:30 and I've explained how you can make
0:32 money off these in my other videos
0:34 bookmakers will generally offer markets
0:36 on nearly everything which team is going
0:38 to win the game how many total points
0:39 will there be but they also offer
0:42 markets on more obscure things such as
0:44 how many points a particular player will
0:46 score or things such as how many points
0:48 rebounds and assists a player will get
0:50 in basketball one of the biggest reasons
0:52 for a sports book or DFS platform to
0:55 make a mistake is because of a lineup
0:57 change basketball is the most
0:58 interconnected Sport and this means a
1:01 single player has a much greater impact
1:03 on every betting line offered for the
1:05 game compared to for example a sport
1:07 like baseball let's take a look at a
1:09 baseball example but you can think of
1:11 other sports as well in baseball let's
1:14 use Aaron judge who is a baseball star
1:16 but whether he is in the lineup or not
1:18 doesn't really impact other players hits
1:21 or RBI LS yes there will be an impact on
1:23 the money line which is which team will
1:25 win as it means it's more likely that
1:27 Aaron judge's team will win the game if
1:29 he's playing the lineup and there'll
1:30 also be some act in the spread and
1:33 totals markets but the difference in the
1:35 expected outcome if Aaron judge was in
1:36 the lineup compared to if there was his
1:39 replacement is significantly less than
1:41 if in basketball whether LeBron James
1:43 was in the lineup or whether it was his
1:46 replacement LeBron James affects every
1:48 facet of the game in basketball him
1:50 being injured or sitting out for load
1:52 management purposes moves a fair price
1:55 for every single line offered by Sports
1:57 books what this means is if LeBron James
1:59 is not in the lineup then that means
2:01 there are more shots for other players
2:03 on his team to take which naturally
2:05 leads to more points more assists and
2:08 more rebounds for other players to get
2:10 the style of play for their team in the
2:11 game changes dramatically frankly
2:14 everything changes for us as profitable
2:16 betters this is great news because it
2:18 means that the fair lines not just for
2:19 the money line in which team will win
2:21 will change but also for the different
2:24 markets such as other Player points and
2:26 assists some books will update their
2:28 lines faster than others once this
2:31 injury or load management situation is
2:33 announced and if you can act upon this
2:35 information fast enough there is
2:37 positive EV or Arbitrage opportunities
2:40 that come up because some sports books
2:42 will be too slow to update their fair
2:44 prices because of that injury or some
2:45 sports books could have just
2:48 overcorrected or undercorrected for that
2:50 change and therefore their prices are
2:52 completely off this would therefore lead
2:54 to Arbitrage and positive Eevee
2:56 opportunities as the markets move around
2:58 and prices change in response to this
3:01 news in the LeBron James example let's
3:03 say one sports book such as drkings is
3:05 slower than others to update their
3:08 prices for other players markets such as
3:10 another player on Lebron james' team
3:13 Anthony Davis to score over or under X
3:15 number of points in this case you would
3:18 be able to get in a positive EV bet by
3:20 betting on Anthony Davis over the number
3:23 of points because that price didn't
3:25 factor in that LeBron James is no longer
3:27 playing and therefore Anthony Davis is
3:29 actually more likely to get those number
3:30 of points
3:32 and you can turn this into an Arbitrage
3:34 bet by hedging on a Sportsbook that was
3:36 fast enough to update their odds and
3:39 therefore lock in a guaranteed profit
3:41 sometimes you can also do middle bets
3:43 which is a very lowrisk betting system
3:45 where you bet over on one side and under
3:48 on another side and for small loss or no
3:50 loss at all you make a lot of money if
3:52 it lands exactly in the middle of your
3:55 two numbers for example for close to
3:58 even odds you can get an NBA player over
4:00 14.5 points on one one sports book and
4:03 the other side of the bet is under 15.5
4:05 points on another sports book and this
4:07 means you'll win both bets if it lands
4:09 on exactly 15 and you make a lot of
4:11 money and if it doesn't land on 15 well
4:13 you win one bet and lose the other bet
4:15 and you lose a small amount of money or
4:18 sometimes no money at all so in this
4:20 case you win both bets if it lands on
4:22 exactly 15 points for that player and if
4:24 it lands on anything else say 16 or like
4:27 14 then you win exactly one bet and lose
4:29 the other bet and in that case you don't
4:31 make or lose any money at all so it's
4:33 basically a free roll now it's very
4:36 difficult to find these Arbitrage and
4:37 positive opportunities yourselves
4:39 because these lineup situations happen
4:42 fast and sports books are slow but they
4:44 aren't that slow in updating their odds
4:45 so if you are manually doing it it would
4:47 be pretty difficult and also there's so
4:49 many games to look out for that makes it
4:51 really impossible but one tool that lets
4:54 you find these bets relatively easily is
4:56 today's sponsor odds Jam which has
4:58 realtime odds scraping software that
4:59 scrapes the odds across hundred hundreds
5:01 of different markets across multiple
5:03 Sports books and therefore can easily
5:05 identify these sports book mistakes very
5:08 quickly as a result of these changes in
5:10 lineups and player injuries this saves
5:12 you time from having to look for
5:13 everything yourself which is very timec
5:15 consuming and realistically pretty
5:17 impossible and it also has the option to
5:20 give you instant email updates when bets
5:23 that you are filtering for do exist this
5:25 lets you get ahead of others who are
5:27 also looking for the same opportunities
5:29 and being first to place these bets is a
5:31 big Advantage as these Arbitrage bets
5:33 and positive e bets disappear very
5:35 quickly once bookies or Sports books get
5:37 a lot of volume being placed on them and
5:39 therefore they will shift their prices
5:41 back in line and as an added bonus you
5:43 can get 25% off your first month of odds
5:45 Jam if you want to check them out by
5:47 using the link in the description below
5:49 and using the code Shane at checkout in
5:51 basketball injuries and especially the
5:53 concept of load management which is a
5:55 systematic and often last minute
5:57 decision to bench star players to help
5:59 reduce their workload over the course of
6:01 a long and grueling season are very
6:04 common and therefore this creates very
6:06 drastic lineup and betting line changes
6:09 than practically any other sport out
6:11 there and the second reason that the NBA
6:13 is so profitable is there's 82 games
6:15 across a single season multipli that by
6:17 30 different teams comparing that with
6:20 something like the NFL which only has 17
6:22 games with 32 teams or the Premier
6:24 League which has 38 games in season with
6:27 only 20 teams we can clearly see that
6:29 there's a lot more games that exist in
6:31 the NBA this naturally means there's
6:34 more lines more markets and therefore
6:36 more Sportsbook mistakes for you to take
6:38 advantage of and make money in addition
6:40 to the regular season there's also the
6:42 playoffs which can go up to seven games
6:45 in the series versus the NFL for example
6:47 which are just single elimination games
6:48 this means there's just so much more
6:50 opportunity probably multiple games
6:52 across every day of the week and that
6:54 means there's more opportunity for daily
6:57 compounding of your bankroll and growing
6:58 your profits exponentially on each
7:00 Arbitrage or positive e bet you might
7:04 only make 1 to 4% 1 to 4% per day
7:06 doesn't sound like a lot but compared to
7:08 like the stock market which only gets 8%
7:10 per year on average this is now
7:13 significant this is a level of return
7:14 that is very very difficult to get
7:16 anywhere else other than from sports
7:18 betting as there's no real other
7:20 Financial mechanism that allows you to
7:22 have these compounding returns so easily
7:25 even let's say you make $5 a Time by
7:27 doing Arbitrage bedding that doesn't
7:28 sound like a lot but given that each
7:30 beted only takes a minute or two as
7:32 you're just bang bang pressing a couple
7:34 of buttons If you place 10 of these bets
7:38 a day that's $50 a day or over $18,000
7:40 per year which is really pretty good for
7:42 probably less than hours of work each
7:44 day making it an excellent side hustle
7:46 so there you have it that's the reason
7:49 why betting on the NBA and basketball in
7:51 general is just so profitable and as you
7:52 can see here pretty much all the
7:54 opportunities you will find are from the
7:57 NBA when it comes to Arbitrage and
7:59 positive EV betting as always hope you
8:00 guys enjoyed this video and learned
8:02 something useful take care and I'll see
