0:07 I think the fed's committed to keeping
0:09 money tight for the foreseeable future
0:10 but we'll find out tomorrow when the
0:12 jury returns in the guys of fed Chief J
0:14 pal it's pretty easy to stay tighter the
0:16 backbone of the US economy is small
0:18 business and small business optimism is
0:21 the highest it's been all year that
0:23 means more hiring on top of the 272,000
0:26 people who got jobs last month hard to
0:27 imagine getting rate cuts when small
0:29 business is that optimistic instead the
0:31 FED needs be obviously Vigilant against
0:33 inflation natural gas prices spiked
0:35 today there's been less drilling so that
0:37 won't reverse the that won't reverse
0:40 easily the median sale price of homes is
0:42 up about 30% since 2019 that's an
0:44 inauspicious number for certain although
0:46 it used to be 40% so at least we're head
0:48 in the right direction so yes it's easy
0:51 for pal to leave rates higher for longer
0:53 at least on the surface but you know me
0:55 I look at the stocks and the stocks are
0:57 actually saying otherwise consider the
0:59 stock of Cleveland Cliffs an amalgum of
1:01 all sorts of Steel that thing's getting
1:03 clubbed down almost 26% for the year and
1:06 off about eight points from its $23 Peak
1:07 Cleveland CL has been annihilated now
1:09 just now we're starting to get
1:11 downgrades fellow steelmaker new course
1:13 down more than 10% for the year these
1:15 are real world situations not surveys
1:17 they represent a lack of demand that
1:18 will mean lower prices for many
1:20 important goods down the road iron's
1:21 down big too according to data from the
1:24 St Louis fed on pricing for property
1:25 casual insurance premiums one of the
1:27 most intractable sources of inflation
1:29 these premiums are finally rolling over
1:31 at l yes that won't be a
1:34 problem Commodities Lumber rolling over
1:36 iron rolling over nickel rolling over
1:39 wheat sugar soy getting clobbered corn
1:40 aute commodity because you need it for
1:42 animal feed to get meal uh meat and
1:44 poultry it's down big cotton the
1:46 indicator of the intractable
1:49 inflationary power category is now down
1:52 big from its 2024 highs even copper seen
1:53 as the most intergal of cost for the
1:56 data center is getting pummeled China
1:58 had been a vicious consumer of copper
2:00 but now it's cutting back on all prices
2:02 as part of a state sponsored plan hey if
2:03 it helps us beat inflation I'll take it
2:06 so much for the copper super cycle it's
2:07 natural to believe that Autos will be
2:09 next too many pieces of cars coming down
2:11 at Price when you see these building
2:13 block prices coming down you have to
2:15 start thinking that everything could
2:17 roll over even Autos even housing
2:19 because the Commodities don't weaken
2:21 like this unless there's a problem with
2:23 demand so I think the FED has every
2:24 right to be vigilant against inflation
2:26 especially with such strong job growth
2:27 last month but the big hiring Vision may
2:29 actually if you break it down came from
2:30 government and healthare which don't
2:32 depend on the broader economy there's a
2:33 bit of strength in travel and
2:34 Hospitality but those I believe are
2:35 still part of that Revenge travel
2:37 movement left over from covid almost all
2:39 other industries were static again
2:41 something that happens before the
2:44 rollover these are the brown shots the
2:47 down shots that figures and will explain
2:49 why some economists keep clinging to a
2:50 September rate
2:53 cut I think these lower prices have to
2:55 go through a pig and a python style
2:57 before we see the FED take any action
2:59 but they'll have to take action if the
3:00 downward spot spiral continues it's
3:02 likely though because believe it or not
3:04 we're still dealing with shortages that
3:05 stem from the pandemic and the are
3:07 finally winding down we don't have
3:08 enough people to do everything we need
3:09 because of retirement without
3:11 replenishment of the labor pool it's
3:12 just not the way it used to be all that
3:15 said prices are coming down companies
3:17 that don't lower them will lose business
3:19 it's the brutal natural order of things
3:20 and it's going to play out within the
3:22 next year the only wild card is
3:24 immigration if the policies are random
3:26 and the enforcement near to non-existent
3:27 then wages the stickiest of all
3:29 inflation problems will come down too at
3:31 which point the FED can really start
3:33 cutting race remember the FED has to
3:35 take it all in I don't envy J pal but I
3:37 like them I trust him and I believe
3:40 he'll figure things out why because he's
3:43 done it before and he now deserves the
3:46 benefit of the doubt I like to say
3:47 there's always bull market somewhere I
3:48 promise try to find it just for you
3:49 right here on M money I'm Jim Kramer see
3:54 you tomorrow last call Starts Now [Music]
