0:03 With so much gold concentrated now in
0:05 the hands of central banks, entities
0:08 that are not subject to margin calls,
0:10 they are not trading gold to make a
0:12 profit, but they're rather holding it as
0:15 a reserve asset. This is not the same
0:17 market that existed during previous
0:20 crashes. Hello everyone, welcome to Bald
0:22 Guy Money. And with a plan that Ukraine
0:24 allegedly agrees to in place to end the
0:27 Russia Ukraine war, I was asked this
0:29 week if I was concerned that it would
0:32 crash gold and silver prices. And to be
0:34 perfectly straightforward, the answer is
0:37 no. First off, because it's good to see
0:40 wars end, but number two, the conflict
0:43 by itself has had little to no impact on
0:45 the long-term prices of gold and silver,
0:47 as we saw them crash in the months
0:50 following the start of the war due to
0:51 central banks around the world,
0:54 including the Federal Reserve, raising
0:56 interest rates in their fight against
0:59 inflation, showing us all, that it's
1:02 rate policy that drives metals prices
1:04 more than war, along with the now
1:07 irreversible reputational damage done to
1:10 the US dollar and the euro as reserve
1:13 assets as a consequence of what they did
1:15 during the war when they froze Russian
1:18 assets in 2022 and later approved their
1:22 outright confiscation in 2024 which has
1:25 just pushed central banks increasingly
1:28 towards gold and just can't be undone at
1:30 this point even if a peace deal is
1:33 reached and with the Federal Reserve now
1:36 expected to lower rates again in
1:37 December, which is something I warned
1:40 you all about back on November 16th when
1:42 I said gold and silver could retest
1:44 their all-time highs as soon as
1:47 December. There is literally nothing
1:49 stopping the gold and silver train at
1:52 this point. And that's precisely what I
1:54 want to cover in this video, starting
1:56 with why the Federal Reserve has no
1:59 choice but to pursue policy that will
2:01 result in higher gold and silver prices.
2:03 with some brand new points I want to
2:06 bring to your attention. Once that's
2:08 covered, I want to reopen the topic of
2:10 metals and mining stocks in a market
2:13 crash to show you all what's really
2:15 different this time and why the
2:17 relationship between gold and the US
2:20 dollar and a market crash may never be
2:22 the same again. And that will also
2:25 contain some information on how I think
2:27 you can protect your mining stock
2:29 positions while earning some money via
2:31 dividends at the same time. Now, just
2:33 before we dive in, I want you all to
2:35 know that this bonus midweek video has
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4:15 jumping in, as I said in my Sunday
4:18 video, we need to focus on the signal
4:20 when it comes to gold and silver that
4:22 will drive prices over the long term,
4:24 not the noise that is intended to make
4:27 us doubt and sell gold and silver at
4:30 current prices to institutional
4:32 investors, including central banks who
4:35 are only more than happy to buy at these
4:38 prices, just like they did in October
4:42 and November 2024 when metal's prices
4:44 pulled back only slightly. People called
4:46 the top of the metals market and central
4:49 banks piled in to make their largest
4:51 purchases of the year. So, don't be
4:54 fooled here because it wasn't long ago
4:56 that the mainstream financial media was
4:59 taking Jerome Powell at his word when he
5:01 said the Fed might not cut rates in
5:03 December, which applied pressure to gold
5:05 and silver prices as well as mining
5:07 stocks, which we will cover a bit more
5:11 shortly, but pulled back 19% in early
5:14 November as measured by the GDX large
5:17 miners ETF, despite the fact that metals
5:19 hadn't really moved that much. And it's
5:21 why I was preaching patience with the
5:24 mining stocks only a couple weeks ago.
5:27 Because just like a dad telling his kids
5:28 that he's going to turn the car around
5:31 if they don't start behaving, Jerome
5:33 Powell's words look like empty threats
5:36 just weeks after he said them. with the
5:39 Federal Reserve not only expected to cut
5:41 rates in December, but expected to cut
5:45 them to 3% or even lower by April of
5:48 next year, keeping us, of course, on our
5:50 path to real negative interest rates by
5:53 March or April of next year, which will
5:56 impact gold and silver in the opposite
6:00 way that raising rates did in 2022 when
6:02 rates went from negative to positive and
6:05 metals prices came down significantly.
6:08 despite the start of the Russia Ukraine
6:10 war which many had incorrectly thought
6:12 would only result in higher metals
6:15 prices no matter what. So I hope that
6:17 relationship between real interest rates
6:20 and gold and silver prices is now clear
6:22 for everyone because people who are
6:24 concerned about wealth preservation and
6:26 there are plenty of such people in the
6:30 world. They are going to flock to the
6:32 only safe haven left once real official
6:35 rates go negative early next year and
6:38 buying US bonds becomes even more of a
6:40 losers investment. And that only safe
6:44 haven, the last place to find safety and
6:46 security in what I think we can all
6:48 agree is not only an overpriced market
6:52 but an extremely volatile market is gold
6:55 and to a lesser extent silver. Now, to
6:56 those of you saying that there's no
6:59 guarantee this is going to happen, let
7:02 me tell you this. Even if they don't cut
7:04 rates in December, the Fed is backed
7:07 into a corner with mounting pressure to
7:09 prioritize saving the economy, which
7:11 despite information out there claiming
7:14 it's great, it's not really all that
7:17 great. As you can see here in the ADP
7:20 private payroll data, which shows the US
7:23 private sector has lost jobs over the
7:25 last three weeks with official
7:27 government data released just a couple
7:30 weeks ago, including revisions for the
7:32 month of August showing that instead of
7:34 adding jobs in the month of August, the
7:37 US market actually lost jobs. And I
7:39 think where you can most clearly see
7:42 this is when we look at the Russell 2000
7:45 index, which is a stock index made up of
7:48 smaller cap US companies. And in my
7:50 opinion and the opinion of many other
7:52 experts out there, it is a great
7:55 reflection of US economic health. And
8:00 this index is up only 1% today versus
8:03 its 2021 highs despite major growth in
8:07 the S&P 500 and an official increase in
8:10 market prices according to the CPI of
8:14 17% over the same period of time. And
8:16 what this tells me and the Fed
8:18 definitely sees this too is that the US
8:22 economy is already in recession. And it
8:25 means not only more rate cuts are coming
8:28 in 2026 and negative real interest rates
8:30 and probably even quantitative easing,
8:33 but it means higher metals prices are
8:35 also on the way. And the market is
8:37 making that perfectly clear as
8:40 conviction in owning metals remains high
8:43 with gold price currently consolidating
8:47 down only about 4% versus its high 27
8:50 days after making it in October. Whereas
8:53 gold had already lost 12% in 2011, 27
8:57 days after making its high and fell 22%
9:00 in the 27 days after making its high in
9:03 1980. And when we look at silver, which
9:06 usually overreacts to any negativity in
9:08 the market, we all know that. And is a
9:11 great leading indicator of gold and
9:13 silver market tops. It's holding up
9:16 extremely well after making its recent
9:19 high, down only about 2% from the high.
9:22 29 days after making it. While silver
9:26 price had already gone down 23% 29 days
9:29 after making its high in 2011 and nearly
9:33 30% 29 days after making its high in
9:38 1980. And that's because real investors
9:40 know what's going on here and they're
9:42 holding their metals while traders are
9:44 the ones contributing to short-term
9:47 volatility, which has decreased notably
9:50 as a healthy fear of shorting silver has
9:52 been instilled in these traders because
9:56 even as silver is above $50 an ounce,
9:59 short sales volume on the SPAT physical
10:02 silver ETF has crashed since October
10:05 20th. It is extremely low as you can see
10:07 on the chart here. And from my point of
10:09 view, this is just another very
10:12 promising sign for both gold and silver
10:14 moving forward. So, with that covered,
10:16 it's time for this video's viewer
10:19 question, which comes from Mo Abbott,
10:20 who wants to know, "What will happen to
10:23 metals and miners if the stock market
10:25 crashes?" And it's a great question
10:28 because, as far as I'm concerned, market
10:30 fundamentals have significantly changed
10:33 over the past few years. and not enough
10:35 analysts are correctly building those
10:37 changing fundamentals into their models
10:40 or communicating this to people via
10:42 social media. So, jumping in to those of
10:45 you who are worried about the safety of
10:47 your gold, silver, and mining stocks in
10:50 a market crash. Luckily, we experienced
10:53 a mini crash earlier this year with the
10:56 S&P 500 pulling back about 20% from
10:59 midFebruary to early April. And that's
11:02 versus a 25% pullback from the end of
11:07 2021 to October 2022. So I think we can
11:10 all agree when I say it was significant
11:12 enough to trigger some margin calls
11:14 which is forced selling in the market
11:16 even of good profitable assets which is
11:18 done to secure loans that have been made
11:21 to traders and is usually what hits
11:24 precious metals the hardest along with
11:26 liquidity crunches. Now, in addition to
11:28 that pullback, which you are looking at
11:31 on this crazy chart here, it can't
11:34 exactly be classified as a flash crash
11:37 since it took place over about 50 to 60
11:39 days depending on how you measure it.
11:42 So, this was a real crash, albeit a mini
11:44 one. And if there's anything we learned
11:48 from it, it's that gold is in a
11:50 completely new reality versus where it
11:54 used to be as price moved up during the
11:55 majority of the crash, only
11:58 significantly pulling back during a
12:00 3-day period by about 5%. In fact, it
12:02 was 4.8%
12:05 during which time the S&P 500 pulled
12:09 back about 13%. And despite an initial
12:11 sell-off in the mining stocks measured
12:14 by the GDX here, they turned around by
12:17 early March, which was very early in the
12:19 crash. And they even started to move up
12:24 with gold even as the S&P 500 sold off
12:26 with silver being the only one of these
12:29 three to have really dropped below its
12:32 pre-crash price during the final days of
12:35 the crash. Now, I know that's probably a
12:37 lot for all of you to take in, but it is
12:40 very significant because common wisdom
12:43 tells us that everything sells off in a
12:45 market crash, even gold, and that it's
12:49 the US dollar that goes up. But during
12:52 those 50 to 60 days, as the S&P 500 sold
12:56 off, the US dollar went from 107 on the
13:01 US dollar index down to 103 as the price
13:04 of gold went up. never closing below its
13:07 pre-pullback highs despite the major
13:09 market crash that was happening. Now,
13:11 this doesn't mean that gold couldn't
13:13 have pulled back more if the crash had
13:16 continued. But what I'm saying is that
13:19 with so much gold concentrated now in
13:22 the hands of central banks, entities
13:24 that are not subject to margin calls,
13:26 they are not trading gold to make a
13:28 profit, but they're rather holding it as
13:31 a reserve asset. This is not the same
13:33 market that existed during previous
13:36 crashes. Which means as we come back to
13:40 this image here, the pullbacks won't be
13:42 as serious for precious metals or even
13:44 the miners as they have been during
13:47 market crashes of the past. Even if we
13:50 see deeper corrections for silver versus
13:52 gold, which we've always seen deeper
13:54 corrections for silver versus gold
13:57 during major market volatility. Now,
14:00 with that said, since we can't predict
14:02 when a crash is going to happen and from
14:04 what levels gold and silver will pull
14:06 back from and really what levels they're
14:09 going to pull back to, I think it's more
14:12 important to focus on the one thing that
14:14 stayed the same earlier this year versus
14:17 past market crashes. And that is once
14:21 the market started to come back, gold,
14:23 silver, and the mining stocks led the
14:26 way back up with the fastest rebounds.
14:28 and the largest gains. Now, just before
14:30 we finish this video, I want to reveal
14:32 something to you all for the first time
14:34 here on YouTube that I think is very
14:37 important on the topic of mining stocks,
14:39 which are rebounding fantastically right
14:41 now, as I told you all they would a
14:43 couple weeks ago. But what I want to
14:46 share with you all is one strategy that
14:48 I think is a good one in the spirit of
14:51 protecting your downside risk on mining
14:53 stocks while also earning some great
14:55 money at the same time in something that
14:58 I think is objectively undervalued right
15:01 now. And that is oil stocks. And the
15:03 reason I took a position in them is
15:05 because as you can see in the image here
15:08 on the screen, fluctuating oil prices
15:11 have historically impacted mining stock
15:14 prices as higher oil prices negatively
15:16 impacts their profitability and lower
15:19 oil prices positively impacts their
15:22 profitability since of course they use a
15:24 lot of oil in their operations. Now I
15:27 think metal's prices are strong enough
15:29 that the miners could shrug off higher
15:32 oil prices. So, it's not a major concern
15:35 of mine, but with oil price at $58 a
15:39 barrel, below its 5-year average of $76
15:41 a barrel, and even below its average
15:45 price since 2000, which is about $64 per
15:48 barrel. I also see value here as the
15:51 upside opportunity is much larger than
15:54 the downside risk. And for transparency,
15:56 I am invested in some oil and energy
15:58 stocks, including Exxon Mobile, which is
16:01 currently paying a 3.6% dividend through
16:04 an ETF I own. And what I want to say to
16:06 anyone like Mo who asked the viewer
16:08 question for this video who may be
16:11 concerned about how a market crash is
16:13 going to impact the mining stocks, what
16:15 I think you should be concerned about,
16:18 where I think you should put your focus
16:20 is on the structural threats to mining
16:23 stocks or any other stocks you own which
16:25 can have a longer term impact on their
16:28 value than a temporary market crash. And
16:32 I think oil price has proven to be such
16:34 a threat for the mining stocks in the
16:36 past. And it's why I think having some
16:39 exposure to those oil stocks makes sense
16:42 as a hedge to mining stocks. And for
16:43 those of you who are interested, I've
16:46 even provided some of the topline data
16:48 for Exxon Mobile here on the screen,
16:50 which again is a stock that I own
16:52 through an ETF along with value
16:55 comparisons versus its peers, which you
16:57 can get from the investing pro tool from
17:00 investing.com that I think is extremely
17:03 useful for anybody considering this as a
17:06 hedge to their mining stocks. And in
17:08 addition to that, anyone who's already
17:10 signed up for the investing pro tool,
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17:15 signing up for it today since the price
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17:24 it's in the prop pick section with some
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17:33 market is just overvalued right now and
17:35 I think the market is overvalued right
17:38 now and that good deals apart from
17:40 metals and mining stocks are just too
17:42 hard to find. I think diversifying in
17:45 this direction into some of these energy
17:47 stocks could be very helpful as I've
17:49 done it myself. And the investing pro
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17:58 need to research mining stocks before
18:00 you buy them instead of just taking for
18:03 example a YouTuber's word for it. So as
18:05 we finish I just want to thank investing
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18:37 if you want to sign up because you want
18:38 to increase your confidence when
18:41 investing in mining stocks or take a
18:43 bite off of the oil stocks, please
18:45 consider signing up now and take
18:48 advantage of the 60% off deal plus the
18:51 extra 15% off you get when you use my
18:53 link. And as we wrap up this video, I
18:55 want to thank everybody for making it to
18:56 the end of this video. Please remember
18:58 to leave me some feedback in the
19:00 comments section below to let me know
19:02 what you think of these midweek videos
19:05 and if you'd like to see more of them.
19:07 Also, if you enjoyed it, leave a like as
19:09 that helps this content reach more
19:11 people who may need to hear this
19:13 message. And before I sign off, I just
19:15 want to wish all of my American viewers
19:18 a very happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy the
19:19 long weekend with your families. And as
19:22 I say at the end of all of my videos,
19:23 please remember to take care of
19:25 yourselves and take care of each other.
