0:01 my name is Derek I'm a professional
0:03 sports better and I've made almost
0:06 $200,000 in Gross winnings on the app
0:08 prize picks and I did this at around a
0:10 30% profit margin meaning I've made
0:14 almost $50,000 in net winnings on prize
0:16 picks alone and I did all of this
0:18 without watching games without knowing
0:20 different players without watching NBA
0:23 all day I used Straight math statistics
0:25 and data to do this and in this video
0:27 I'm going to show you exactly how you
0:30 can copy me and beat prize picks using
0:33 odds and statistics in fact I made so
0:35 much net profit on prize picks that a
0:37 few months ago they completely Banned Me
0:39 from their platform and I'm no longer
0:42 able to bet more than $5 per slip or $25
0:44 per day and I'm going to show you guys
0:45 that right now I'm going to go to the
0:47 NBA and I'm going to choose two
0:49 completely random props and I'm going to
0:50 show you guys it does not let me bet
0:53 more than $5 let's take Mel Bridges
0:55 under his points and DeMar DeRozan over
0:57 his rebounds I go here if I try to put
1:00 $10 on the slip and hit some midline
1:02 lineup you'll see what happens it says
1:03 the maximum lineup amount for one of
1:06 these sports right now is $5 let's try
1:07 two completely different sports I'm
1:09 going to go over to the MLB I'm going to
1:11 take Nathan avaldi under his strikeouts
1:14 then I'm going to go to the NHL and I'm
1:16 going to take Nath McKinnon under his
1:18 time on ice I'm going to try to put $7
1:20 on the slip hit submit lineup you guys
1:22 can see the exact same thing comes up
1:26 I'm only allowed to bet $5 per slip $25
1:28 per day because prize piix is scared of
1:30 my action because they know that I am
1:31 guaranteed to make money over the long
1:33 term in this video I'm going to show you
1:36 exactly how to find the most profitable
1:38 props with the highest chance of hitting
1:40 on prize pick that will literally
1:41 mathematically guarantee that you make a
1:43 net profit over the long run and this is
1:46 a concept called plus EV betting without
1:54 video what is the ultimate goal of
1:56 playing on prize picks the ultimate goal
1:58 of playing on prize picks is to choose
1:59 the props that have the highest chance
2:01 of hitting and I know this sounds
2:03 obvious but guys look at all these props
2:04 not all of these props have the same
2:06 chance of hitting some of these props
2:08 are more likely to hit and some of these
2:09 props are less likely to hit so that
2:11 brings up the question how are you
2:12 supposed to know which ones are more
2:14 likely and which ones are less likely
2:16 and in order to do this we're going to
2:18 use a strategy called line comparison
2:20 line comparison is what every single
2:21 professional and sharp Sports better
2:24 does in order to get an edge and profit
2:27 in the long term line comparison is dead
2:29 simple we are going to compare the lines
2:32 on price PR pick to a sharp sports book
2:34 to see where prize picks has mispriced
2:36 their odds and are giving props that
2:38 have a high chance of hitting now I know
2:39 some of you guys might be a little bit
2:41 confused right now what is this line
2:43 comparison thing that he's talking about
2:45 but to ease this confusion we're going
2:47 to do a dead simple example that even a
2:49 second grader could understand let's
2:51 take this prop for example Paul George
2:54 under or over 17 and a 12 points if we
2:56 want to find out what the odds of this
2:58 bet hitting are we can go over to the
3:00 largest Sports pooke and the entire
3:03 country FanDuel we're going to go to the
3:05 NBA and we're going to find Paul George
3:09 who plays for the Philadelphia 76ers we
3:11 can simply type his name in up here we
3:14 can type in Paul George
3:17 points and as you can see his line is
3:21 -12 for the over and -18 for the under
3:23 now to get the true odds of Paul George
3:25 going over or under 17 and 1 12 points
3:28 we can use a tool called a no viig
3:31 calculator and that is in a viig
3:33 calculator now this calculator will tell
3:36 you exactly what the fair odds of a bat
3:37 happening are you're going to take one
3:39 side of it which is -12 you're going to
3:41 plug it into the top and then you're
3:43 going to take -18 and you're going to
3:45 plug it into the bottom and here as you
3:47 can see it is basically 50/50 whether
3:50 Paul George goes over or under 17 1 12
3:53 points so with this bed right here is
3:55 basically dead even whether he's going
3:57 to go over or under 17 and 1 12 points
3:59 and that is not what we are looking for
4:01 we looking for props that are heavily
4:03 favored to either go over or under and
4:05 that is where our Edge is going to come
4:07 from if this is confusing to you trust
4:08 me it is going to make sense to you in
4:10 less than 60 seconds now let's take a
4:12 look at a completely different prop
4:14 let's find RJ Barrett how about his
4:17 rebounds line his rebounds line is set
4:20 to 6 and a half for the over under if we
4:22 go over to FanDuel and we find RJ
4:26 Barrett's rebound line let's type in RJ Barett
4:28 Barett
4:30 rebounds here here we find that RJ
4:33 Barrett is plus 116 to go over while his
4:35 under isus
4:37 154 basically what FanDuel is saying
4:40 here with this minus 154 number they're
4:43 saying that we think that RJ Barrett is
4:45 heavily favored and more likely to go
4:47 under than he is to go over compare that
4:49 to Paul George's points where you can
4:52 see it's -12 -118 FanDuel is not really
4:55 favoring on side but as you can see with
4:57 this bet they are heavily favoring the
4:59 under if we type this into our no VI
5:02 calculator we take
5:05 116 and we take minus 154 I believe
5:10 that's what it was yes - 154 now we see
5:12 that the fair odds of RJ Barett going
5:14 under is actually
5:17 56% compared to with Paul George where
5:20 it was like 49 or 50% so now we know
5:22 that RJ Barrett when we look at the line
5:25 on a sports book is heavily favored to
5:27 go under 6 and 1 half rebounds does that
5:30 make sense guys we using the information
5:32 from a sports book that has millions of
5:34 different data points that literally
5:36 does this with billion doll teams and
5:39 has all the data in the world we are
5:41 using their odds against prize picks to
5:44 find where props are heavily favored to
5:46 go under or over and then we are playing
5:49 them on prize picks to get an edge these
5:51 are the results in just the last week of
5:53 using the line comparison strategy I am
5:56 averaging around a 55 to 60 sometimes
6:01 even 65% hit rate on NBA props tennis
6:03 props and Esports props as well as
6:05 football props when football season is
6:07 in session obviously you're not always
6:09 going to get that four out of four that
6:11 five out of five that six out of six but
6:13 when you have a hit rate that is this
6:15 High it is guaranteed that in the long
6:17 run you are going to make money now how
6:19 can I make such a bold claim how can I
6:21 say that it is guaranteed see that
6:23 brings us to our next topic and the most
6:25 important topic in the video and that is
6:27 the concept of Break Even odds or
6:29 implied percentage as some of you might
6:32 know not every slip typee on prize pick
6:34 is made the same some slip types are
6:36 optimal to take and some slip types are
6:38 not optimal to take so very quickly I'm
6:40 going to run through this because Prix
6:42 has fixed odds meaning the payout is
6:43 always the same no matter what you
6:46 choose and what do I mean by that if I
6:48 choose more on this and then Less on
6:51 this it's a 3X right I can change it to
6:53 more on this and less on this it's still
6:56 a 3X I can take this guy out and I can
6:58 switch this guy out it's still a 3X
7:00 right because the pay is always the same
7:03 you can actually calculate the percent
7:04 of your individual props that you need
7:06 to get correct over the long run in
7:08 order to break even so basically you can
7:11 measure how good a slip type is or how
7:13 bad a slip type is first with the two
7:17 power you have to hit around 57.7 4% of
7:19 your individual props in order to break
7:21 even over the long run with a 2-an power
7:23 this means you have to have some really
7:24 really good props with a very high
7:26 chance of hitting in order to make a
7:29 2-an power profitable over the long term
7:31 3an powers and three man flexes are
7:32 terrible slips you should never use a
7:34 three man if you see anybody on social
7:37 media or selling pics using a three man
7:38 they have absolutely no idea what
7:40 they're doing you should never listen to
7:42 them or follow them you have to hit at a
7:44 extremely high rate just to break even
7:46 when you play these three man do not use
7:51 them guys fourman power next 56.2 3% the
7:53 fourman power you're going to see me use
7:54 this pretty often it's really good
7:56 especially we can get some correlation
7:58 between two different legs the fourman
8:01 flex really makes no sense to play yes
8:03 it is a little bit more than the fourman
8:06 power they are kind of similar but with
8:08 a fourman power you can use correlation
8:09 and when you're using correlation it
8:11 doesn't make sense to use the flex I'm
8:12 not going to go into detail about that
8:13 guys I have different videos on
8:16 correlation out there so so far the Twan
8:18 power I think the two-man power is good
8:20 I use the Twan power pretty often
8:22 because very often I find very good
8:24 props on prize picks the fourman power I
8:26 use this sometimes as well for
8:28 correlation slips or if I can only find
8:30 four really good
8:32 but as you can see down here guys we
8:34 have these two highlighted in green the
8:37 fiveman flex and the six-man Flex these
8:39 two are the most profitable types of
8:41 slips on prize picks and I know that
8:42 might sound confusing I know that might
8:45 sound kind of crazy that a fiveman and a
8:48 six-man is more profitable than a Twan a
8:49 lot of people think that just because a
8:53 Twan is easier to hit that means it's
8:55 more profitable that is not true at all
8:57 guys with the fiveman flex and the
9:00 six-man Flex you only have to hit 50
9:03 4.34% of your individual props over the
9:05 long run in order to break even this
9:08 means that there is a lot more leeway
9:10 and a lot more room to play props so for
9:13 example when we found that prop earlier
9:14 I believe it was Jeremy Grant under 6
9:17 and a half rebounds the fair odds areus
9:19 130 AKA
9:22 56.7% so this would be a good prop to
9:24 use in a fiveman or a six-man Flex or
9:26 even a fourman power because it is a
9:29 prop that hits at a 56% rate that will
9:31 be profitable if you play it inside of a
9:33 fiveman flex or six-man Flex as well as
9:35 a fourman power so in conclusion the
9:36 only sub types that you really should be
9:39 using on prize picks are a two-man power
9:41 sometimes a four-man power sometimes and
9:43 especially a fiveman flex and a six-man
9:45 Flex I'm going to show you guys one more
9:48 example of what is a good prop on prize
9:50 picks and what is a bad prop on prize
9:52 picks so let's go back to the NBA let's
9:55 look at let's see let's look at Josh
9:57 giddy one and 1 half three-pointers made
9:59 we're going to go over to FanDuel and
10:02 we're going to type in Josh
10:03 Josh giddy
10:05 giddy
10:08 3s now as you can see Josh giddy his
10:11 thre's line if we scroll down is - 1225
10:14 for the over and - 106 for the under if
10:17 we type this into our no viig calculator
10:18 I'm going to leave this down in the
10:19 description by the way if you want to
10:21 check out this calculator all I have to
10:22 do is type in no Vig and it'll come up
10:26 on OD Jam type in -125 and I believe the
10:30 under is - 106 we can can see that for
10:33 these props the over is
10:37 51.92 and the under is 48% neither of
10:39 these are strong enough to use in any
10:41 type of slip on prize picks so if you
10:43 try to use this prop it is actually
10:45 negative EV meaning you are going to
10:47 lose money over the long run I'm not
10:49 going to go into the math behind this
10:51 but basically this prop right here has
10:53 no Edge and you would not want to take
10:54 this now we're going to look at an
10:56 example of an actual profitable prop
10:58 where we can see that one side is
11:00 heavily favored and it would be a good
11:02 play to play on prize picks let's find
11:04 Chris Middleton and look at his rebound
11:06 line his rebound line is set to 4 and 1
11:09 half rebounds if we go over to FanDuel
11:12 we type in Chris Middleton
11:14 rebounds here we can see that for the
11:17 line of his rebounds the over four and a
11:19 half is plus 110 while the under is
11:22 heavily favored at minus 140 we're going
11:24 to type this into the no big calculator
11:25 that I showed you guys earlier if you
11:27 guys want to check out this calculator
11:29 I'll leave a link to it down in the
11:30 descript description so you guys can use
11:32 it for yourself we're going to type in
11:34 plus 110 for the over you don't have to
11:36 type in the plus you can just put
11:40 110 and then the under is- 140 we can
11:42 see that the fair odds for this prop
11:45 are- 122 or
11:48 55.6% now going back to this chart we
11:53 can see 55% is above 54.3 4 so this
11:55 would be a good prop to use a fiveman
11:59 flex or a six-man Flex this is plus EV
12:01 and it is mathematically guaranteed that
12:04 if you use props like this inside of the
12:05 correct optimal slip type you are
12:07 literally mathematically guaranteed to
12:09 make money over the long term this is
12:12 the definition of plus EV betting we're
12:14 using odds and statistics in order to
12:17 get an edge using the actual fair value
12:19 of the prop on a sharp Sportsbook like
12:21 FanDuel and I know that might sound kind
12:22 of fancy it might sound kind of out
12:25 there but trust me guys it is dead
12:26 simple all we're doing is going to a
12:29 sports book we're finding the fair odds
12:30 and then we are using that inside of an
12:32 optimal slip type and this is how you
12:34 mathematically make money betting on
12:36 sports and on prize picks now a lot of
12:37 you guys might be thinking this looks
12:39 like a lot of work how am I going to
12:41 find these props by comparing them to
12:43 FanDuel this would literally take hours
12:45 and you guys would be correct that is
12:47 why you don't do this by hand there's
12:49 actually a tool that you can use that I
12:51 handb built by myself that finds the
12:54 most profitable props on prize picks and
12:55 that is called the beat the sportsbooks
12:58 Discord inside of my very own Discord
13:01 server I built a tool that scans these
13:03 Sports books like FanDuel and Pinnacle
13:05 that have sharp odds to find the plays
13:08 that are mathematically more likely to
13:10 hit and it actually sends them out in
13:12 the spreadsheet like format to the
13:14 Discord every 30 seconds here we can see
13:16 the most profitable plays right now are
13:19 Jordan IOU under one and a half shots in
13:21 this leester versus West Ham game
13:24 Jeremiah fears and NCAA basketball under
13:26 17 points Mohamed Kudos under three
13:28 shots RJ Barrett under six and a half
13:30 rebounds which was our first example in
13:33 this video Etc I am very excited to
13:34 release this tool to you guys and it has
13:37 been a long time in the making and I'm
13:38 excited to have my product in the world
13:41 of profitable sports betting optimizers
13:43 now not only did I build this tool for
13:45 prize picks but I also built a tool for
13:47 Underdog fantasy inside of the channel
13:49 called Underdog feed it sends the most
13:52 profitable plays on Underdog fantasy at
13:54 any given time and as you can see guys
13:56 there is a crap ton of value that it
13:58 spits out literally every 30 seconds
14:00 right here it shows the estimated win
14:02 percentage based off the fair odds on a
14:04 sharp sports book and then here it shows
14:06 the expected value which basically means
14:09 how much of an edge do we have if we
14:11 play this prop the tool is dead simple
14:14 It Gets Sent every 30 seconds or so all
14:15 you have to do is read off the props
14:18 make it into the optimal slip type based
14:20 off the win percentage and watch your
14:22 profits climb remember guys this is the
14:24 same exact strategy combined with some
14:26 correlation strategies that got me
14:28 banned from prize picks and no longer
14:32 even able to Play More Than a $5 slip
14:34 $25 per day even better if you guys want
14:36 to try out this tool for completely free
14:38 you don't have to give me any money I
14:40 want you guys to join and see how
14:41 profitable this tool can be you guys can
14:44 get a free 3-day trial using the first
14:47 link down in the description again it is
14:49 completely free for 3 days and then it
14:51 is only $49 a month for this tool if you
14:53 guys want to get a free trial go ahead
14:54 and check out the link in the
14:57 description again this tool can be found
14:59 inside my Discord which is called be the
15:00 sports books in addition to the prize
15:03 picks and Underdog feed I also give out
15:05 prize pick plays from my personal AI
15:07 machine learning model which has a
15:10 historical 60 plus% hit rate on Esports
15:12 alone and these pcks can be found inside
15:14 of the prize pick VIP Channel where I
15:16 put out the slip along with the link to
15:18 tail when you guys join the Discord make
15:20 sure you go to the start here in the
15:21 general guide channel and this will tell
15:23 you how to navigate and use the server
15:25 this is super important guys before
15:27 using the prize picks and the underdog
15:29 feed before you place a sing sing Le bet
15:30 you're going to want to go to this
15:33 channel called feed guide this is going
15:35 to tell you the best practices and how
15:37 to use the feed to get the most optimal
15:39 bets and the bets that have the highest
15:40 chance of hitting one of the most
15:43 important things in my opinion is number
15:45 two right here play props that are
15:47 closer to game time instead of games
15:50 that are you know 12 16 or 24 hours plus
15:52 away this is because right before game
15:55 time the lineups as well as the injury
15:57 news is set and that means you're going
15:59 to get the best and most accurate op
16:00 compared to these sharp books so for
16:02 example let's say you take a bet where
16:04 you have a player on one team to go
16:07 under but then somebody else on the team
16:09 is ruled out of the game so this person
16:10 is going to be getting more shots you
16:12 don't want stuff like that to happen you
16:14 don't want injury news and lineup news
16:16 to affect your bet so you want to be
16:18 betting closer to game time sometimes I
16:19 literally put in bets 30 minutes before
16:21 game time and this leads to Super
16:23 accurate bets I also have these implied
16:25 odds charts inside of the Discord so you
16:26 don't have to leave the Discord to see
16:28 them every single time on prize picks
16:31 and Underdog fantasy I also get into how
16:32 much you should be betting on each
16:34 parlay in my opinion I think you should
16:38 do anywhere from 0.25 to.5 units on
16:40 three mans and two mans and then stick
16:42 to around 0.25 maybe 33 units on five
16:45 mans the beat the sports books plus EV
16:48 Discord with the prize pick feed the
16:50 underdog feed and all of my personal
16:52 machine learning and AI picks is
16:55 available for only $49 per month Yes you
16:59 heard that right $49 per month but if
17:00 you guys want to get a free trial to Tri
17:03 out the Discord for completely free for
17:06 three whole days I am giving out 100
17:08 free 3-day trials using the first link
17:10 in the description so if you are one of
17:12 the first 100 people to click on that
17:14 link and join the Discord you will get 3
17:17 days for completely free I may extend
17:18 this farther than 100 people in the
17:20 future but for now it is only going to
17:22 be the first 100 people so make sure you
17:24 join using the first link in the
17:25 description that's going to do it for
17:27 this video guys can't wait to see you
17:29 guys in the Discord if you guys have any
17:30 questions you can add me on Discord at
17:33 Derek bets or you can send me an email
17:34 my email is going to be down in the
17:36 description make sure to like and sub if
17:37 you guys like the video and I'll see you
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