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How to Beat PrizePicks With Math: $200,000 in Winnings! | Beat The Sportsbooks | YouTubeToText
YouTube Transcript: How to Beat PrizePicks With Math: $200,000 in Winnings!
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Video Transcript
my name is Derek I'm a professional
sports better and I've made almost
$200,000 in Gross winnings on the app
prize picks and I did this at around a
30% profit margin meaning I've made
almost $50,000 in net winnings on prize
picks alone and I did all of this
without watching games without knowing
different players without watching NBA
all day I used Straight math statistics
and data to do this and in this video
I'm going to show you exactly how you
can copy me and beat prize picks using
odds and statistics in fact I made so
much net profit on prize picks that a
few months ago they completely Banned Me
from their platform and I'm no longer
able to bet more than $5 per slip or $25
per day and I'm going to show you guys
that right now I'm going to go to the
NBA and I'm going to choose two
completely random props and I'm going to
show you guys it does not let me bet
more than $5 let's take Mel Bridges
under his points and DeMar DeRozan over
his rebounds I go here if I try to put
$10 on the slip and hit some midline
lineup you'll see what happens it says
the maximum lineup amount for one of
these sports right now is $5 let's try
two completely different sports I'm
going to go over to the MLB I'm going to
take Nathan avaldi under his strikeouts
then I'm going to go to the NHL and I'm
going to take Nath McKinnon under his
time on ice I'm going to try to put $7
on the slip hit submit lineup you guys
can see the exact same thing comes up
I'm only allowed to bet $5 per slip $25
per day because prize piix is scared of
my action because they know that I am
guaranteed to make money over the long
term in this video I'm going to show you
exactly how to find the most profitable
props with the highest chance of hitting
on prize pick that will literally
mathematically guarantee that you make a
net profit over the long run and this is
a concept called plus EV betting without
video what is the ultimate goal of
playing on prize picks the ultimate goal
of playing on prize picks is to choose
the props that have the highest chance
of hitting and I know this sounds
obvious but guys look at all these props
not all of these props have the same
chance of hitting some of these props
are more likely to hit and some of these
props are less likely to hit so that
brings up the question how are you
supposed to know which ones are more
likely and which ones are less likely
and in order to do this we're going to
use a strategy called line comparison
line comparison is what every single
professional and sharp Sports better
does in order to get an edge and profit
in the long term line comparison is dead
simple we are going to compare the lines
on price PR pick to a sharp sports book
to see where prize picks has mispriced
their odds and are giving props that
have a high chance of hitting now I know
some of you guys might be a little bit
confused right now what is this line
comparison thing that he's talking about
but to ease this confusion we're going
to do a dead simple example that even a
second grader could understand let's
take this prop for example Paul George
under or over 17 and a 12 points if we
want to find out what the odds of this
bet hitting are we can go over to the
largest Sports pooke and the entire
country FanDuel we're going to go to the
NBA and we're going to find Paul George
who plays for the Philadelphia 76ers we
can simply type his name in up here we
can type in Paul George
points and as you can see his line is
-12 for the over and -18 for the under
now to get the true odds of Paul George
going over or under 17 and 1 12 points
we can use a tool called a no viig
calculator and that is in a viig
calculator now this calculator will tell
you exactly what the fair odds of a bat
happening are you're going to take one
side of it which is -12 you're going to
plug it into the top and then you're
going to take -18 and you're going to
plug it into the bottom and here as you
can see it is basically 50/50 whether
Paul George goes over or under 17 1 12
points so with this bed right here is
basically dead even whether he's going
to go over or under 17 and 1 12 points
and that is not what we are looking for
we looking for props that are heavily
favored to either go over or under and
that is where our Edge is going to come
from if this is confusing to you trust
me it is going to make sense to you in
less than 60 seconds now let's take a
look at a completely different prop
let's find RJ Barrett how about his
rebounds line his rebounds line is set
to 6 and a half for the over under if we
go over to FanDuel and we find RJ
Barrett's rebound line let's type in RJ Barett
Barett
rebounds here here we find that RJ
Barrett is plus 116 to go over while his
under isus
154 basically what FanDuel is saying
here with this minus 154 number they're
saying that we think that RJ Barrett is
heavily favored and more likely to go
under than he is to go over compare that
to Paul George's points where you can
see it's -12 -118 FanDuel is not really
favoring on side but as you can see with
this bet they are heavily favoring the
under if we type this into our no VI
calculator we take
116 and we take minus 154 I believe
that's what it was yes - 154 now we see
that the fair odds of RJ Barett going
under is actually
56% compared to with Paul George where
it was like 49 or 50% so now we know
that RJ Barrett when we look at the line
on a sports book is heavily favored to
go under 6 and 1 half rebounds does that
make sense guys we using the information
from a sports book that has millions of
different data points that literally
does this with billion doll teams and
has all the data in the world we are
using their odds against prize picks to
find where props are heavily favored to
go under or over and then we are playing
them on prize picks to get an edge these
are the results in just the last week of
using the line comparison strategy I am
averaging around a 55 to 60 sometimes
even 65% hit rate on NBA props tennis
props and Esports props as well as
football props when football season is
in session obviously you're not always
going to get that four out of four that
five out of five that six out of six but
when you have a hit rate that is this
High it is guaranteed that in the long
run you are going to make money now how
can I make such a bold claim how can I
say that it is guaranteed see that
brings us to our next topic and the most
important topic in the video and that is
the concept of Break Even odds or
implied percentage as some of you might
know not every slip typee on prize pick
is made the same some slip types are
optimal to take and some slip types are
not optimal to take so very quickly I'm
going to run through this because Prix
has fixed odds meaning the payout is
always the same no matter what you
choose and what do I mean by that if I
choose more on this and then Less on
this it's a 3X right I can change it to
more on this and less on this it's still
a 3X I can take this guy out and I can
switch this guy out it's still a 3X
right because the pay is always the same
you can actually calculate the percent
of your individual props that you need
to get correct over the long run in
order to break even so basically you can
measure how good a slip type is or how
bad a slip type is first with the two
power you have to hit around 57.7 4% of
your individual props in order to break
even over the long run with a 2-an power
this means you have to have some really
really good props with a very high
chance of hitting in order to make a
2-an power profitable over the long term
3an powers and three man flexes are
terrible slips you should never use a
three man if you see anybody on social
media or selling pics using a three man
they have absolutely no idea what
they're doing you should never listen to
them or follow them you have to hit at a
extremely high rate just to break even
when you play these three man do not use
them guys fourman power next 56.2 3% the
fourman power you're going to see me use
this pretty often it's really good
especially we can get some correlation
between two different legs the fourman
flex really makes no sense to play yes
it is a little bit more than the fourman
power they are kind of similar but with
a fourman power you can use correlation
and when you're using correlation it
doesn't make sense to use the flex I'm
not going to go into detail about that
guys I have different videos on
correlation out there so so far the Twan
power I think the two-man power is good
I use the Twan power pretty often
because very often I find very good
props on prize picks the fourman power I
use this sometimes as well for
correlation slips or if I can only find
four really good
but as you can see down here guys we
have these two highlighted in green the
fiveman flex and the six-man Flex these
two are the most profitable types of
slips on prize picks and I know that
might sound confusing I know that might
sound kind of crazy that a fiveman and a
six-man is more profitable than a Twan a
lot of people think that just because a
Twan is easier to hit that means it's
more profitable that is not true at all
guys with the fiveman flex and the
six-man Flex you only have to hit 50
4.34% of your individual props over the
long run in order to break even this
means that there is a lot more leeway
and a lot more room to play props so for
example when we found that prop earlier
I believe it was Jeremy Grant under 6
and a half rebounds the fair odds areus
130 AKA
56.7% so this would be a good prop to
use in a fiveman or a six-man Flex or
even a fourman power because it is a
prop that hits at a 56% rate that will
be profitable if you play it inside of a
fiveman flex or six-man Flex as well as
a fourman power so in conclusion the
only sub types that you really should be
using on prize picks are a two-man power
sometimes a four-man power sometimes and
especially a fiveman flex and a six-man
Flex I'm going to show you guys one more
example of what is a good prop on prize
picks and what is a bad prop on prize
picks so let's go back to the NBA let's
look at let's see let's look at Josh
giddy one and 1 half three-pointers made
we're going to go over to FanDuel and
we're going to type in Josh
Josh giddy
giddy
3s now as you can see Josh giddy his
thre's line if we scroll down is - 1225
for the over and - 106 for the under if
we type this into our no viig calculator
I'm going to leave this down in the
description by the way if you want to
check out this calculator all I have to
do is type in no Vig and it'll come up
on OD Jam type in -125 and I believe the
under is - 106 we can can see that for
these props the over is
51.92 and the under is 48% neither of
these are strong enough to use in any
type of slip on prize picks so if you
try to use this prop it is actually
negative EV meaning you are going to
lose money over the long run I'm not
going to go into the math behind this
but basically this prop right here has
no Edge and you would not want to take
this now we're going to look at an
example of an actual profitable prop
where we can see that one side is
heavily favored and it would be a good
play to play on prize picks let's find
Chris Middleton and look at his rebound
line his rebound line is set to 4 and 1
half rebounds if we go over to FanDuel
we type in Chris Middleton
rebounds here we can see that for the
line of his rebounds the over four and a
half is plus 110 while the under is
heavily favored at minus 140 we're going
to type this into the no big calculator
that I showed you guys earlier if you
guys want to check out this calculator
I'll leave a link to it down in the
descript description so you guys can use
it for yourself we're going to type in
plus 110 for the over you don't have to
type in the plus you can just put
110 and then the under is- 140 we can
see that the fair odds for this prop
are- 122 or
55.6% now going back to this chart we
can see 55% is above 54.3 4 so this
would be a good prop to use a fiveman
flex or a six-man Flex this is plus EV
and it is mathematically guaranteed that
if you use props like this inside of the
correct optimal slip type you are
literally mathematically guaranteed to
make money over the long term this is
the definition of plus EV betting we're
using odds and statistics in order to
get an edge using the actual fair value
of the prop on a sharp Sportsbook like
FanDuel and I know that might sound kind
of fancy it might sound kind of out
there but trust me guys it is dead
simple all we're doing is going to a
sports book we're finding the fair odds
and then we are using that inside of an
optimal slip type and this is how you
mathematically make money betting on
sports and on prize picks now a lot of
you guys might be thinking this looks
like a lot of work how am I going to
find these props by comparing them to
FanDuel this would literally take hours
and you guys would be correct that is
why you don't do this by hand there's
actually a tool that you can use that I
handb built by myself that finds the
most profitable props on prize picks and
that is called the beat the sportsbooks
Discord inside of my very own Discord
server I built a tool that scans these
Sports books like FanDuel and Pinnacle
that have sharp odds to find the plays
that are mathematically more likely to
hit and it actually sends them out in
the spreadsheet like format to the
Discord every 30 seconds here we can see
the most profitable plays right now are
Jordan IOU under one and a half shots in
this leester versus West Ham game
Jeremiah fears and NCAA basketball under
17 points Mohamed Kudos under three
shots RJ Barrett under six and a half
rebounds which was our first example in
this video Etc I am very excited to
release this tool to you guys and it has
been a long time in the making and I'm
excited to have my product in the world
of profitable sports betting optimizers
now not only did I build this tool for
prize picks but I also built a tool for
Underdog fantasy inside of the channel
called Underdog feed it sends the most
profitable plays on Underdog fantasy at
any given time and as you can see guys
there is a crap ton of value that it
spits out literally every 30 seconds
right here it shows the estimated win
percentage based off the fair odds on a
sharp sports book and then here it shows
the expected value which basically means
how much of an edge do we have if we
play this prop the tool is dead simple
It Gets Sent every 30 seconds or so all
you have to do is read off the props
make it into the optimal slip type based
off the win percentage and watch your
profits climb remember guys this is the
same exact strategy combined with some
correlation strategies that got me
banned from prize picks and no longer
even able to Play More Than a $5 slip
$25 per day even better if you guys want
to try out this tool for completely free
you don't have to give me any money I
want you guys to join and see how
profitable this tool can be you guys can
get a free 3-day trial using the first
link down in the description again it is
completely free for 3 days and then it
is only $49 a month for this tool if you
guys want to get a free trial go ahead
and check out the link in the
description again this tool can be found
inside my Discord which is called be the
sports books in addition to the prize
picks and Underdog feed I also give out
prize pick plays from my personal AI
machine learning model which has a
historical 60 plus% hit rate on Esports
alone and these pcks can be found inside
of the prize pick VIP Channel where I
put out the slip along with the link to
tail when you guys join the Discord make
sure you go to the start here in the
general guide channel and this will tell
you how to navigate and use the server
this is super important guys before
using the prize picks and the underdog
feed before you place a sing sing Le bet
you're going to want to go to this
channel called feed guide this is going
to tell you the best practices and how
to use the feed to get the most optimal
bets and the bets that have the highest
chance of hitting one of the most
important things in my opinion is number
two right here play props that are
closer to game time instead of games
that are you know 12 16 or 24 hours plus
away this is because right before game
time the lineups as well as the injury
news is set and that means you're going
to get the best and most accurate op
compared to these sharp books so for
example let's say you take a bet where
you have a player on one team to go
under but then somebody else on the team
is ruled out of the game so this person
is going to be getting more shots you
don't want stuff like that to happen you
don't want injury news and lineup news
to affect your bet so you want to be
betting closer to game time sometimes I
literally put in bets 30 minutes before
game time and this leads to Super
accurate bets I also have these implied
odds charts inside of the Discord so you
don't have to leave the Discord to see
them every single time on prize picks
and Underdog fantasy I also get into how
much you should be betting on each
parlay in my opinion I think you should
do anywhere from 0.25 to.5 units on
three mans and two mans and then stick
to around 0.25 maybe 33 units on five
mans the beat the sports books plus EV
Discord with the prize pick feed the
underdog feed and all of my personal
machine learning and AI picks is
available for only $49 per month Yes you
heard that right $49 per month but if
you guys want to get a free trial to Tri
out the Discord for completely free for
three whole days I am giving out 100
free 3-day trials using the first link
in the description so if you are one of
the first 100 people to click on that
link and join the Discord you will get 3
days for completely free I may extend
this farther than 100 people in the
future but for now it is only going to
be the first 100 people so make sure you
join using the first link in the
description that's going to do it for
this video guys can't wait to see you
guys in the Discord if you guys have any
questions you can add me on Discord at
Derek bets or you can send me an email
my email is going to be down in the
description make sure to like and sub if
you guys like the video and I'll see you
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