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The case for immigration | Alex Nowrasteh and Bryan Caplan | The Reason Interview
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this is the reason interview with Nick
Gillespie please subscribe to this
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with people you think should know
about one of the very first things that
Donald Trump did after being sworn in as
president was to make good on promises
to reduce both legal and illegal
immigration he even issued an executive
order ending Birthright citizenship a
right guaranteed by the Constitution's
14th amendment that order has already
been blocked by a federal judge and its
fate May well end up being decided by
the Supreme Court but calls for Less
immigration are super popular with 55%
of Americans saying current level should
be decreased that's the highest since
2001 I disagree with that I think
immigration is a good thing and that we
should have more of it done in an
orderly peaceful efficient fashion so on
January 21st the day after Trump's
inauguration ation I asked George Mason
University Economist Brian Kaplan and KO
Institute analyst Alex narasa to make
the libertarian case for more
immigration at a live event in New York
City they've written extensively on the
topic and I think we answer every
question and concern anybody might have
about immigration the goal here was to
steal man critics of immigration and
explain why more newcomers is a good
thing for our culture
our economy and our country here is the
reason interview with Brian Kaplan and
Alex
narasa all right well let's let's start
talking um and uh we will uh then uh
move through a couple of different
um um sections of this but um first off
Alex we are you know a day one plus one
and a half I don't know whatever into
the Trump
Administration uh Donald Trump both in
2016 but then especially in this past
election cycle you know campaigned on
limiting immigration getting rid of
illegals Etc what did he do in day one
he promised a very big day one related
to immigration what was the primary
outcome of what he did and is this a
good or bad thing so he promised to
reduce legal immigration and illegal
immigration if you look back to his
effects during his first Administration
the biggest effect he had was on
reducing the legal immigrant population
and inflows not the illegal during his
time and what he did was he declared an
invasion that there is an invasion going
on along the border he had multiple
paragraphs explaining and trying to
argue that there was an invasion usually
you don't need multiple paragraphs to
describe an invasion like you just know
like hey the Nazis are coming they're
here like you know when that happen you
tried to justify
and then uh as a result of that says uh
because there's an invasion
extraordinary powers he shut down the
Asylum system making it virtually
impossible to apply for Asylum along uh
the Border also that part of the
Constitution that's activated allows
states to wage war I'm not sure how
they're going to wage war on immigration
along the border but we'll see as things
develop there are some pretty creative
uh border state Governors uh he also
shut down the res uh Refugee system uh
for this year it's a temporary pause he
says
uh but uh given the numbers that have
already come in it's shutting down at
least for the rest of the year uh he has
declared the uh drug cartels to be
foreign terrorist organizations so now
when anybody's killed along the border
in a drug dispute it's going to be
considered an active terrorism uh this
is important because not a single
American has been killed uh by an
illegal immigrant in a terrorist attack
in the last 50 years as far as we can
tell despite him talking about it
frequently and he also issued an
executive order um that is seeks to
modify the rules about Birthright
citizenship uh basically call it the
Kamala Harris order because it is
designed I think specifically to troll
Camala Harris to basically remove
citizenship from her because the way
that it's defined would basically apply
to her and could very briefly explain
that so if you don't have a uh parent
who is a lawful permanent resident or a
citizen when you're born then you won't
be considered a citizen starting in
about 30 days for people born after that
now if the courts uphold that then of
course they're going to expand it uh and
try to go backwards as far as possible
he also declared uh all manner of
emergency along the border that allows
him to activate uh enormous amount of
funds the basically be able to uh
redirect military construction funds
unilaterally to uh build the Border uh
to deploy the National Guard if he wants
to along the border to do all manner of
other types of military operations could
you very quickly I know both you and
your uh your colleague at Ko David beer
um have written about this extensively
Trump in his first term he was
particularly going after illegal
immigrants but he ended up actually kind
of cutting legal immigration more than
illegal immigration and that seems
counterintuitive what what was going on
with that so I think it's actually U
more intuitive than not because the
president has control over the legal
system he can adjust that almost any way
that he wants thanks to some really
stupid Supreme Court decisions during
his term uh but it's a black market
illegal immigration he has less control
over that sure he can adjust the
incentives and the deterrent by building
up border security or or other types of
measures but he has the most direct
control over the legal system and so
that is what He adjusted and if you read
his platform that he put out for 2016 I
know it's funny like a trump platform
like haha whatever but uh it said in
there specifically he wanted to cut
legal immigration by 2/3 and then by the
time of covid um he exceeded that uh
part of that of course is in reaction to
the pandemic but even before then he cut
student visas uh skilled
immigration um all manner of work visas
Etc before we go to Brian I want to just
follow up with one other point how do we
know that there is not an invasion of
America or that's the wrong term uh to
to put it but under Joe Biden a massive
number of immigrants legal and illegal
entered the country
why is it wrong to characterize that as
an invasion so I think there's a big
difference right between the Germans
going to Paris in
1940 and you know 100,000 of them ahead
of an army and 100,000 Germans going
today to get jobs you know it's not a
military Invasion it's not a conquest
they are coming here because Americans
demand their labor and want to hire them
we've had an extraord ordinarily large
number of job openings for the last 5
years after the recovery of Co Americans
want to hire them they want to rent
apartments to them they want to sell
them goods and services and mutually
beneficial and voluntary exchanges right
like a foreign army doesn't come to
repair your deck uh but these people are
coming to uh they they come to blow it
up right but immigrants are coming to
build it and to supply the goods and
services that we want to buy and consume
and I'm sure some of them are bad people
but uh yeah well some of us are bad
people too right uh Brian what what do
you mean uh one of when you as one does
as a Libertarian and you talk to people
and they say oh you're a Libertarian so
you believe in open borders what do you
mean by open
borders well let's see I got to debate
for Intelligence Squared a few years ago
and the resolution was let anyone take a
job anywhere I think that's a good
slogan I think of open borders as a
slogan of human beings should be able to
go and move back and forth between
countries live and work without
government permission um if you say well
does that mean open regardless of
whether the person shows up carrying an
axe of course not I'd say that's just
understood in terms of normal English uh
a way that I've sometimes explained it
which is if you don't belong in jail
then you should be able to go and move
back and forth freely between countries
right because open borders also doesn't
mean open up the jails right are are you
um are you talking about a kind of Ellis
Island style I mean there would be some
place where people would show their
passport or something like that or do we
you know abolish borders completely I
mean honestly I'd say that's just a
detail and it's just not very important
I mean like it's true if you say like
you have to show a Passport well if
you've driven around the EU you don't
have to show passports to go between
those countries um you don't need to do
show a passport to go between Virginia
and Maryland doesn't that mean that uh
ax murder from Maryland could freely go
into Virginia and attack people it does
actually however it's really convenient
for everybody else
so the idea of just actually having no
no checks at all and you can come and go
freely I think that the case for that is
way stronger than what most people think
because it's very inconvenient to have
to get checked as you will know if you
if you have actually gone through
passport control it's like wow this a
pain in the neck all right but I don't
regard that as an important issue and
say look if you just have to go and show
your passport all right fine it's not
that big of a deal um I mean honestly
the main thing to understand is that for
tourists this pain in the net cost is
actually pretty serious and probably
greatly reduces tourism because it's a
large percentage of the gain you're
getting from going to that other country
uh there's been some interesting work
saying that just requiring visas Cuts
international travel to your country by
about
70% why do so many countries insist on
visas yeah it's a great question um it's
it's mostly just total paranoia National
Pride I actually got to be on a panel
with modi's top economic adviser in
India and when I mentioned this he just
got quite well actually it was the monp
society I mentioned since he was in
charge of getting rid of a bunch of
stupid regulations I said here's one
that you might consider and since almost
everybody there was not from India
there's wild Applause and then he said
well you well we will do it when the
United States gives us free Visa free
travel and I'm like okay I think that
would be great but that's not going to
happen for the obvious reason that very
few Americans want to move to India and
start working there and a lot of Indians
would like to move to the US and start
working there and when you have a system
designed to prevent people from move
from working you is that is a large part
of the fear of immigration systems that
someone might move to your country and
try to produce something and one of the
interesting things
is uh before World War I there were only
two countries in the world that required
passports those beacons of freedom and
liberty in Europe the Ottoman Empire and
the Russian Empire and the rest of the
world seems to have converged to those
standards during the war so tell me uh
Alex what what happened because uh you
know America broadly speaking goes
through I mean from the colonial period
really on uh but goes through waves of
being kind of pro-immigrant and
anti-immigrant um it doesn't necessarily
match up with whether or not people are
moving here or not but you know we go
through cycles of this and over the past
few years there has been an intense uh
antipathy that has had you know has
political force to say you know IM we
have too much immigration we uh you know
legal and illegal things are out of
control what is driving that perception
the chaos at the border the chaos at the
border caused by the virtual
impossibility for the vast majority of
immigrants to come here legally uh wages
in the United States depending on how
you measure like three to 15 times
higher uh adjusting for the cost of
living than in other countries there's
enormous demand for these people to come
here the job market job openings have
been extraordinary for the last several
years in the United States Americans
want to hire them and so a lot more
people have been coming and you know
there have been some changes in terms of
policy on the border but in terms of the
effect of those changes by Biden on
illegal immigration they're vastly
overstated uh for instance December 2020
the month before Trump left office was
the highest December to that point in
terms of Border apprehensions in 21
years because the job market was
recovering quite greatly after the end
of Co people and apprehensions is a
proxy for the number of people who also
get through it's a proxy people use it
as a proxy for that but it's it's a real
measure of the chaos right and I don't
think anybody I certainly don't look at
these pictures of large numbers of
people coming across being apprehended
you know sometimes a little mini Riot
sometimes they assault border patrol
officers or scale walls I don't like
that you know I'm I'm a Libertarian but
I do like order uh I like some laws uh
but I like order lot and I think that
but this is the chaos that is born and
created from laws that are hyper
restrictive and that prevent people from
engaging in the mutually beneficial
voluntary exchanges that they want so I
think the chaos is driving a large
percentage of it oh can I say something
on that yeah so I think it is a bit more
complicated in a few ways first of all
I'm not convinced there was ever a
period when immigration was popular in
the US right so here I I mean just to
say like when you if if you look at
Gallup which asked the same question to
representative groups uh actually under
Trump the people who agreed with the
sentiment that uh immigrants have mostly
been a benefit to the country went up to
about 75% the highest they recorded it's
now below 50% so that's that's what I'm
talking so well let me this way so we've
actually got data going I think it is
Gallop data going back from the 60s so
the share of the US population that
favored more immigration was in single
digits for many decades mean basically
from like the beginning around 1965 up
to about 2000 it would generally be
under 10% of Americans said there should
be more immigration this is a time when
immigration was lower and then around
2000 it started going up uh it is true I
think in the last couple of years it
went down a bit from its historic Peak
but uh and then if you just go back to
the 19th century you don't have public
opinion data from then so it's hard to
know but I don't like there's enough
nativist movements and enough moves to
go into St immigration like why was
there ever open borders there's this
great paper on how open borders ended in
six countries that just goes over US
Canada Argentina Brazil New Zealand
what's what's the answer so honestly the
answer is they don't know but uh it did
end in six countries and I think the
main thing you can say is that the like
the easy stories are wrong it's not just
that objective facts change in some way
and then people rationally responded to
them and in general I would just say
that while political advisers like the
idea that public opinion is moving in
response to facts we have a lot lot of
evidence that that is not so public
opinion moves in response to perceptions
which themselves really have very little
to do with facts I don't know about
immigration but like for example there's
a fantastic paper on perceived versus
actual inequality around the world and
here's the quick version of that paper
the correlation between actual
inequality in a country and perceived
inequality by the people who live in
that country is point2 which is barely
noticeable and the correlation between
perceived changes in inequality and
actual changes inequality is zero so
when you see the people are getting
upset about inequality and say oh it's
because inequality is so high it's like
it's got nothing to do with it it's just
that people get upset about stuff and
it's got almost nothing to do with
numbers which is no surprise when you
realize how people don't like math what
happens in the political economy though
because you know with um the the major
widescale immigration restrictions in
the United States that were ultimately
voted in in 1924 there was about a
40-year period uh that was coincidental
with a massive increase in the number of
people coming from Europe where
politicians working with Community
leaders Etc created a groundwell for uh
you know a series of Acts that passed
pretty overwhelmingly in Congress so
what what goes into that why why and and
I guess more so now how does that map on
to you know the anxieties and the
concerns that you know it's clear Trump
would campaigned as you know he was
going to cut immigration and that you
know people responded to that pretty
strongly yeah so Alex may know a lot
more than me but so you're talking about
the 1924 Act and why that passed right
so basically there's a whole series of
immigration restrictions acts I had a
grad student that went through all the
ones that failed as well as all the ones
that succeeded from like 1870 up
till not sure when but anyway um you
know the main story is that all the
complaints you hear about immigrants now
were also very widely shared in that
period from late 19th century up to
early early 20th century every complaint
you've heard about crime and effect on
labor markets and effect on culture all
that stuff was around it was very subtle
differences like the main thing is that
anti-immigration people in those days
talked about our Nordic race right which
is the actual language they would use
and and when they said immigration will
destroy our Nordic race turns out they
were right because any nordics around
here I don't know any nordics so now you
realize well it's it's really just a
change in change in self identity in
self now may they're dying their hair
yes um but so you ter yeah but but in
terms of how it passed like there was
just a lot of negativity towards
immigrants for a long time and then they
managed to get over the hump but it
doesn't seem like it was particularly
even then there was some stuff about
some socialist terrorists Anarchist
terrorists after World War I but you
like it's very easy after the fact to
say well there's some scandals right
before but there's always scandals but I
mean there were you know there was there
were concerted movements to pass laws
that would restrict immigrants from
coming and then the question is how do
you how do you get the the people to
come out and vote for that or for it to
be pushed top down I mean Alex do you
have a sense of what what we might learn
from the restrictionist movement in the
early part of the 20th century and now I
mean are they following the same script
oh it's very similar I mean they tried
multiple times I mean there is a law
passed in the eight late 1890s that
basically would have done then what they
did in 1924 and it and it passed but it
was vetoed and there were a couple other
bills like this that were veto they had
some restrictions that they're able to
put in but they were very persistent
they were very dedicated they had a
clear cause that everyone could
understand and then I think you had a
few things happen in the 19 uh teens
right you had World War I that stopped a
lot of immigration I think people were
like oh this s this pretty good we don't
have all these boats of these uh uh
gross foreigners coming in I think is
the way that they were thinking about it
and then I do think um the uh you know
some of the perceptions of chaos and the
real chaos there were hundreds of
bombings um across the United States the
Socialist Revolution and um in Russia
convinced actually some businesses for
the first time to support closing the
Border because they're afraid of that
because the the old nativist
organizations when they failed in their
laws um they they had it was a
politically incorrect phrase but they
would basically blame the quote Jew use
Jesuits and
steamships uh Jews being obvious uh they
didn't like them uh Jesuits being
Catholics they don't like them very much
uh big lobbies for immigration but
steamships being a standin for firms
that benefited from immigration and
there was a bit of a sea change in the
early 20s where you had some big
industrialists come out because they
were sort of worried about these red
bombing so I think it's the um you know
you have a persist nativists have a
persistent message it's very easy to
communicate there's a lot of popularity
from it and then when you have some uh
break in the system or some deviation
from the norval trends and some chaos uh
it's it's a way to take advantage of it
you also had a n a huge labor a labor
movement that was growing that was
fiercely nativist inspired by Eugenics
ideology that saw Northern and that all
Southern and Eastern Europeans who are
the main immigrant groups as being
inferior there was a fun it's not funny
but a book written at the time called um
the oh well that's gone uh the uh the
Melting Pot mistake published in the
1920s about the uh about how you know
Eastern Europeans Jews and uh Southern
Europeans would never assimilate to our
great Nordic
ways well thing why we're talking about
the greater regulation immigration also
worth remembering so 1965 we have this
act that heavily deregulates immigration
although if you know the legislative
history I can't how do you pronounce the
guy's name GJ L TN uh jilton jilton
right so he goes over the actual
legislative history it's fascinating
because it appears that the the the
liberalization of immigration was a
complete mistake the people that were
involved did not intend it then rather
it was basically we want to keep America
white without well without being racist
anymore so what can we do let's make
family reunification the basis for
immigration there's nothing racist about
families is there just coincidentally
most people here are white so their
families will be white right and they
just didn't seem to realize the effect
of chain migration in particular saying
that brothers and sisters siblings would
count as relatives for purpose as a
family unification and also the fact
that most white Americans wouldn't have
foreign relatives to bring over whereas
non-white nonwhites would so think
there's some story of a Nigerian Doctor
Who is the basis for 150 Nigerians
getting in right and the logic is simple
it's like if you can let in your
brothers and sisters then you can get in
their spouses and if the their spouses
get in they can get in their brothers
and sisters and so on and so really it
looks like this was not a response to
anything other than cold war and wanting
to have better PR but they ACD Al
actually led to a massive increase in
Immigration combined with this feature
of the US which is once you pass
legislation it's really hard to unpass
it so tell uh uh Brian what is the case
for more immigration because a lot of
people and you know uh last year I guess
I was part of a free press debate uh
with uh so robari and an cter on the
other side and they pointed an in
particular to that 65 law which had many
unintended consequences as when the
hit the fan um why is it good that that
Nigerian doctor brings over 150 of his
closest relatives yeah great Point uh so
I recently wrote an open letter to Elon
Musk which is called E of X is greater
than zero uh just to begin with the kind
of immigration that almost every
rational person wants it's like well we
want Albert Einstein we want Geniuses we
want people that found companies we want
baseball players and movie stars right
because though why because those people
add value all right it's like all right
so far so good yeah they do add value
they add a lot of value it's like but
then once you can admit that these very
high skill immigrants are adding a lot
of value then the question is all right
well are they the only people at Value
it's like do you need to add hundred
billion dollar worth of value to be a
worthwhile person it's like no how about
people only add one billion yeah they're
good too all right how about people only
add like 10 million yeah them how about
people only add a million good how about
people at 100,000 right and so on right
so you know the way that I was
explaining this to Elon I don't think he
read it but I'm still anyway if you if
you got a line to him uh it would only
take five minutes of his time uh is well
you know probably he could do it in two
minutes it's very smart you know when
you're when you're running a company it
is not the case that the janitors are
parasites on the rest of the company
right the janitors they don't contribute
as much as the CEO but they are still
valuable people people who more than
pull their weight and if you look at
immigration that way you realize wow you
people who are generally very low
skilled they still they they take care
of kids they mow Lawns they grow food
why is it that people are so eager to
keep people out just because they are
lows skilled and again we can be totally
honest and say look they are not Albert
Einstein without saying therefore we
don't want them I say that's really the
basic economic case is saying let in all
the people that actually are better than
nothing and which is almost everybody's
better than nothing and I like Alex can
I can I ask um uh Alex you have done
work on kind of quantifying though the
amount of benefits of you know of
tax-funded benefits that uh immigrants
get particularly low-skilled immigrants
this is an argument that comes up again
and again which is to say well you know
in the 20s you know those Jews and
Jesuits you whatever else you can say
about them is that they weren't getting
you know a temporary assistance for
needy families and things like that they
weren't going to public schools that
cost $30,000 a year um how do you how
did how does that factor in that
calculation factor into that argument of
saying let them all in so uh when you
take a look at the welfare consumption
of people who are foreign born compared
to native born Americans it's a it's on
average 27% less the dollar value when
you look at the entirety of uh means
tested in entitlement programs uh in the
United States so it's 27% less that's
part for a handful of reasons one is
they are legally restricted from certain
benefits for periods of time uh
especially when uh for the first five
years that they are here lawfully uh
illegal immigrants have very little
access to benefits it depends on some
State policies uh but they have access
to a handful of benefits in a few uh
States but not very many public school
is the big one but of course the other
side of the calculation is the taxes
right so it's the value of the services
that they consume and it's the taxes
that they pay but it's not just what
they pay specifically but also the taxes
paid from the extra economic activity
that results from them being here right
so the higher corporate profits from
being able to expand production and sell
more goods and services uh from
everything like that from the higher uh
property values because there's more
people who are buying uh property so
property tax revenue goes up even if the
rates remain the same and when you
balance that up there's a lot of
different research on both sides a lot
of really boring models that go back and
forth uh I spent a whole summer reading
them I think you read that working paper
one time it was like the most boring
summer ever because basically the result
right oh
yeah the um it's uh and so uh basically
the result was that they mostly pay
their way there's some variation here
sometimes some lower skilled immigrants
don't on average sometimes they do based
on the model and the methods of it but
basically immigration is not driving any
the fiscal problems in the US government
the fiscal problems are being spent by
tax and budget policies outside of that
so but but I want to say if that still
concerns you the easy answer is to build
a higher wall around the welfare state
not around the country is that uh I
agree with you um but is that really
plausible because you know when you say
um you know they on average immigrants
take 27% Less in transfer payments than
native born people why isn't it zero or
should it be zero it should be zero for
every body uh but yeah if we can only
make it zero for immigrants and I would
uh do that right away the thing is the
most successful long-term part of the
1996 welfare reform Act was permanently
reducing immigrant welfare use uh
substantially below that of uh native
born Americans and most not all but most
of those restrictions are stuck around
and I do have a feeling uh that we're
going to have more restrictions on
immigrant access to welfare in the next
couple years which is would be one of
the few things uh good on immigration
policy that were come out of this
Administration Brian could you talk
about the job impacts of immigrants
whether they're high skill or low skill
this is also a major argument against
you know more immigration or immigration
in general is that immigrants come here
and they take our jobs uh and you know
and they take our jobs whether we're in
s Valley or whether we're pool cleaners
in Southern California is that accurate
the correct way to start is to say well
if you are directly competing with an
immigrant then probably they're bad for
you in the labor market letting in a
bunch of foreign py economists is bad
for me all right on the other hand if
they are immigrants that so these are
immigrants that produce what you produce
are bad for you however immigrants who
produce what you consume are good for
you when you let in Afghan restauranteur
into my area I'm not worried about
losing my job I'm saying wow now my
money buys more and better stuff so for
any person you can say you need to at
least consider both the the fact that
they are competing with you for jobs but
also competing with your money competing
for your money competing with you for
your jobs is bad for you competing for
money is good for you and then say well
what's the net effect and that is where
we can go back to what should be taught
on the first day of every in econ one
class and it's this The Secret of mass
consumption is mass production all rich
countries are countries that produce a
lot of stuff for person right and as
long as you in a country where there's
very high production rsion it is almost
certain that you too will have at least
a reasonably good standard of living and
this is the heart of the economic case
for immigration which is that we know
for a fact that when you let in someone
from a poor country into a rich country
their productivity skyrockets overnight
it's really obvious for agriculture you
let a Mexican farmer in to work on a US
farm and he's suddenly growing 10 times
as much food as he was back in Mexico
that's just fact you let in someone
who's working in a primitive Factory in
India to a modern Western Factory he's
suddenly producing a lot more that's
fact the the only one that's a little
puzzling is what about a service like
shining shoes it's not like a Haitian
shines more shoes in Miami than he does
back in Haiti right and the answer there
is for services you have to remember the
point of of a service is to save time
and when you save more valuable time you
contribute more to the world so if you
save five minutes of Bill Gates's time
you have done more for the world than
when you save five minutes of my time
and that's why Services actually do also
enrich Humanity when you leave Haiti and
move to the US you now saving the time
of people's time is worth 10 times as
much and that's where that extra
productivity comes so I'd say that like
you know the best way to think about
this is say like it at first it's
ambiguous and then you realize no it's
not ambiguous at all because you need to
keep your eye on the ball production
when you were increasing total
production you were increasing the
wealth humanity and there is no example
in economic history I have at least none
that I am aware of where there was a
large incre increase in production that
was not broadly shared it is not the
case that building textile factories
just inrich Factory owners not the case
that vaccines only enrich pharmaceutical
companies it's not that the internet
just enrich programmers when you produce
abundance the abundance winds up being
shared through normal Market processes
uh Alex uh we've heard a lot over the
past few uh weeks or months about H1B
visas and how immigrants are taking
advantage of those and pulling money out
of American Pockets uh of ual workers
and potential workers can you just very
quickly explain what the H1B Visa
program is and whether or not the
critique of it is accurate uh the H1B
Visa is a temporary high-skilled Visa
program for people it's a minimum wage
of $60,000 it's a three-year Visa
renewable once and the company can
sponsor you for a green card and so long
as you're working for them you can work
on that uh the backlog for it is
tremendous for certain countries to get
that green card because the Visa the
Green Card system which is the first
step to becoming a citizen uh the green
C so people go often times from student
to H1B to Green Card the backlog is per
country so only 7% of people who get a
green card each year can come from any
one country so the backlog for some
Indians in some Visa C in some green
card categories is about 150 years like
if you ordered a car in the Soviet Union
you would get it before you got a green
card in the American system if you're an
Indian so the these workers are highly
skilled so it's 60,000 minimum wage the
average wage for an H1B worker is about
$119,000 year there uh what it's 65,000
per year plus another 20 or 25,000 yeah
65,000 plus another 20 who are graduates
for private companies but nonprofit
research institutions including
universities and the KO Institute where
I work are exempt from that numerical
cap so they don't so I actually compete
with more immigrant workers and just
about anybody uh in the country Brian I
guess too on this on this
regard they're taking my job at Harvard
750,000 or so H1B Visa the government
doesn't actually count them because of
course the government wouldn't count the
interesting important things uh but
those are some of the estimates of them
and so the the argument recently is that
uh these are taking the jobs of you know
hard uh hardworking blue SK uh blue
collar uh American workers in technology
science engineering uh and uh
mathematics there's not really much
evidence of this firms hire H1B visas
it's an expensive Visa process when
they're expanding and increasing their
Labor uh demand in the United States
it's it's a wonderful uh visa to bring
skilled people here there's a lot of
problems with it uh a lot of regulations
I delete in that visa and that uh in
that category to make it easier for
people in it but uh people are I I just
it's it's an amazing turn of events
where people are blaming and and don't
like a
high-skilled uh visa for people and we
saw this in the great H1B Wars on
Twitter if uh everybody remembers that
from a few weeks ago I mean at least
it's nice that people can admit the
minimum wage can be harmful to the
workers that are affected yeah um let's
talk love the Silver Lining Brian let's
talk a little bit about that because you
know the the anti-immigrant
rhetoric um or or immigration
restriction uh rhetoric is is really
coming from the right now I mean the
left or you know the Republicans
Democrats sometimes walk up to it in the
1990s it was very different Bill Clinton
in 96 famously campaigned on getting rid
of illegal immigrants and tightening
things up uh but you know so these
things switch but it's coming from the
right there was a big uh kind of
squabble between kind of Maga
contingents uh who were saying no
immigrants are terrible and h-1bs we
should get rid of all of them and then
people like Elon Musk who as the year of
the president who works in industries
that use a lot of H1B Visa people and
they say you know we need these people
Brian how do you think that is likely to
play out in a political Coalition that
is very much behind Donald Trump who's
very much anti-immigrant andan I'd say
that you should always start with the
base rate which is just the status quo
this is even when people say they really
want to change things most often they
don't so I'd start with there uh in
terms of what's actually likely to
happen you you're right you've got two
forces you've got some very populous
people saying let's even go after high
school immigration and then on the other
hand you've got Elon saying that's a
terrible idea net effect you I I guess I
would still go with I think it's going
to be about the base rate I don't think
Elon is going to get them to expand it I
don't think the other people are likely
to crush Elon and get it crushed but I
would also say I believe what Alex says
more than what I say so what do you say
Alex uh yeah so uh it's well thank you
Brian uh but uh you know it's it's it's
it's really interesting because you know
Elon came on one of these
visas and uh he had Visa troubles at
different times and he's a man who has
produced more economic value than any
other living person and he would not
have been able to do the same thing in
South Africa uh where he came from to
say nothing about that but in terms of
what's going to happen um I agree I
think things are actually going to get
worse um I don't think Elon is going to
have too much influence on the direction
of immigration policy into the Trump
Administration he might delay things a
few weeks here or there uh but it's sort
of the same thing you see with like woke
policies inside of government agencies
right it's like you have a steady a
committed group of bureaucrats who are
really in woke ideology pushing it uh
and so no matter what the politicians
say it becomes larger and push and and
grows and what you have is like that
that the huge source of human capital in
the American Republican party now for
managing agencies is in the immigration
bureaucracy they actually know what
they're doing as opposed to a lot of
other agencies so you have a committed
group of bureaucrats who are committed
to this the Steven Miller of the world
and dozens of other people who are just
on the other side of this from Elon and
when Trump says publicly like he said
today he likes the H1B Visa he's like I
love waiters and the people who work at
my Resorts he's confusing the H1B with
another Visa called the h2b
Visa he normally doesn't make that kind
of mistake right yeah well I I would put
it this way my money is on people like
Steven Miller who actually work in the
government and are more trusted by the
president than on Elon even though you
know one of the things uh we haven't had
comprehensive immigration reform really
since the late 80s when Ronald Reagan
who was exceedingly pro-immigration and
a pro-immigrant
uh uh you know helped Forge a synthesis
wasn't all good um we haven't been able
to have comprehensive immigration reform
is it possible that Stephen Miller
though can put together a consensus for
a an exclusionary set of uh immigration
policies I think it's very Poss it's
certainly the mo the highest chance that
I've seen in my lifetime for instance
there was just a bill passed that will
be passed if it hasn't already today the
lake and Riley act explain who Lake and
Riley is uh Lake and Riley was a student
uh in Georgia who was murdered by this
uh illegal immigrant from Venezuela
named I believe it's Jose abara and uh
uhar was recently convicted of that in
Georgia in late 2024 so the lake and
Riley act and he had been arrested a
couple times at different spots so the
lake and Riley act does two things one
of them it says that if you're arrested
for any kind of theft in the US in your
illegal immigrant then they have to hold
you in government detention and remove
you I don't that doesn't really keep me
up at night but the third part of it
which is the part that is really popular
in the Republican conference if you talk
to them off the Record is it allows any
State Attorney General to sue the
federal government for a uh for Visa
programs if it imposes more than $100 of
cost on their state and Steve Bannon and
other people on the right are saying
this is the vehicle they're going to use
to shut down the H1B program uh any kind
of uh humanitarian parole and other
types of temporary work programs because
you can definitely show $100 of cost uh
you know somebody goes on an H1B to
estate and they enroll their kids in
public schools so there's going to be
this sort of
um it is a very fascinating way to
empower states to basically some of them
to try to shut down the legal
immigration system uh Alex I know you've
uh done work on this but how do how do
you respond to people who are outraged
that illegal immigrants you know are not
just committing crimes but are killing
people um you know what what is a good
libertarian response to that so I say
you should punish the people who commit
the crime crimes who commit uh you
should not punish people who have the
same legal status who didn't commit the
crimes in the same way that uh I would
hope that if somebody in like in my
hometown of hearnen somebody committed a
murder not long ago was a big Scandal a
big story um I'm glad they punished the
murderer and not uh the neighbors who
come from the same state uh who happen
to have the same uh immigration status
as that individual so I think you
punished a person who did it and then
there's an empirical argument uh illegal
immigrants are less likely to commit
crimes and native born Americans to be
incarcerated for them uh to commit them
according to the almost all the EV the
really good evidence that we have and so
if you're using crime committed by
subpopulation that doesn't commit as
much crime and you're using that as an
argument for mass deportations that is
an ineffective anti-me policy that
you're wasting resources on that you
should be going against act actual
criminals people who violate other
people's rights oh if I say something on
that and so once I actually was invited
to be the one pro-immigration person at
the writer Workshop which is basically
the giant umbrella organization of all
the anti-immigration groups in America
and um later that afternoon there was a
panel of people whose relatives have
been murdered by illegal immigrants and
I was not on that panel but I think so
what would you say to the people on that
panel and I think the honest thing is to
say I wouldn't say anything to the
people on that panel someone who
actually went through that horrible
situation like best to go like say like
I'm just not even going to touch that
but if you were talking to someone else
who was not really personally affected
say look I understand why you're doing
this but intellectually this is not any
better than saying let's have a panel of
everyone murdered by a Jew everyone
murdered by an Albanian in order to go
and Stoke Miss misanthropy against that
group like logically it does not it does
not in any way differ except that this
is a group that people are already dis
already
dislike I'm amazed they didn't have you
on that panel
uh I think I would have refused but uh
least at least ask for more money let's
uh let's talk about cultural arguments
Brian you touched on this earlier um you
know a lot of people who are concerned
about immigration will say you know what
we have led so many people in where at
uh the percentage of the foreign born
population is approaching the Peaks that
it saw in the early teens of the 20th
century or previous Peaks and people are
saying you know we need a time out we've
uh we had a timeout you know starting in
the 20s through the 60s or really the uh
late 70s um and we we you know we need
to stop the influx of different types of
people with different types of
Lifestyles and different types of ways
of being in the world uh what you know
what is wrong with that
argument I mean there's so many
different ways you could start but let
me start with this one uh my dad is 86
you think he likes modern American
culture
all right since he was born the culture
not of not of immigrants but of native
born Americans has dramatically changed
the point where he is horrified just to
go and turn on his television all right
now the question is look hm so how
horrible was it really right now those
of us who are younger say well I guess
there's some things are better some
things are worse I don't see the culture
is worse overall probably it's actually
bit better all right that would I think
be at least a a more reasonable attitude
to take about it but then here's
something that that that you can can
also say well who do you feel culturally
closer to my dad or an immigrant of your
own generation like like almost everyone
says yeah of course I feel a lot closer
to immigrants from my own generations to
a guy who's 86 years old he's just
living in a totally different era it's
like yeah and yet we still have a highly
functional Society we have the greatest
economy that's ever existed despite all
this cultural change it seems like our
system is actually very robust I have an
essay that's called Western Civ as a
hearty weed
uh this our civilization actually is
amazingly flexible amazingly good at
adapting and this is what makes it so
terrifying to the enemies of Western
culture around the world in Iran the
Ayatollah had a great word West
toxification this is what the West is
doing they're sending their Western
poison into Iran and so we need to keep
it out in order to save our country and
our culture and this is one where it's
like people can be living in Iran and
yet they feel bombarded by our culture
right and yet who going pick that who's
going to pick that weed it's going to be
an immigrant too right so it's well I
mean what's really striking is if you
can't actually keep people in Iran from
westernizing what are the odds you can
keep Iranian immigrants from that that
actually move to the west from
westernizing we've got Alex nasta here
uh and his dad uh director Cy Cyrus
nasta my grandparents were the
immigrants but so you're your dad was
actually born here yes okay uh under the
new rules by the way um that uh Trump
put into a it's actually unclear whether
he would be an American citizen but he
was born here now yes are you uh I hope
you're taunting him with that very much
so and I told him that I'm going to call
Ice on him uh but but but the but the
thing is like just like I I think
Brian's right you know when people get
older I think they find more things in
American culture or any culture they
grow up in to complain about but next
time you see this I mean you all look
pretty young in here uh but next time
very goodl looking well some of us uh
next time no nordics no nordics need a
plot yeah next time you think of
something in American culture that you
don't like um think about was this a
foreign import or is this something
those crazy kids came up with and uh I
haven't found one that's not uh foreign
import it's always those crazy kids yeah
the good the good culture changes
starting with Cuisine oh yeah spicy
food do you um do either of you have
concerns about a common culture uh and
whether it's driven by immigration or
internal migration or just technology do
you are you overly concerned that um you
know people will uh Benchmark it going
back depending on how old they are or
what they're interested in but things
were better uh in the early days of the
internet uh things were better when we
had three TV channels and a couple of
source trusted sources of news uh you
know when we all read the same books
things like that do those critiques or
do those worries um speak to you at all
you I say the best case scenario is if
we have a common awesome culture that's
the best case scenario on the other hand
we could have a common crummy culture
which is what we had when you're talking
about when we had three channels of
television and your trusted news sources
that did not deserve to be trusted but
nevertheless were right and see
especially of course if you have a
minority view the idea that you want a
common culture well who do you think is
going to get
assimilated right uh your it's not going
to be the rest of society starts being
like you it's that you're under pressure
to start being like them so I'd say
given the given the problems in
mainstream culture it's better that it's
not common at least at least there's
some dissent so you know during Co like
on the one hand you've got this very
popular view of lockdowns but on the
other hand there's a lot of dissent much
better that it wasn't I think the best
thing would have been if there's a
common culture saying no lockdowns but
if you're not going to get that it's
better to have polarization so at least
there's some placees in the US you can
go to be free oh is there any reason to
believe that
assimilation and it would be worthy uh
worth defining that term is it happening
at a different rate than it happened in
the early part of the 20th century or at
other points of high immigration in
United States history so there's been
some good work on this uh Jake bigor and
others have tried to take a look at this
uh over time and by assimilation he
basically means whether the immigrants
or their kids are similar to longer
settled Americans along measurements of
like uh education income family size
religiosity civic participation and some
other metrics of opinion and he finds
that it's going at about the same Pace
as 100 years ago Mexicans are pretty
similar to Italians in terms of their
pace of assimilation along a lot of
these metrics one of the big ways that
people assimilate is through
intermarriage called assimilation at the
altar um that's one of the major reasons
why you have like large descendants of
Hispanic immigrants in the United States
who don't even identify as Hispanic on
surveys so they actually are so well
Blended in and so successful that they
just identify as white because they've
you know one of their parents uh is
white or one of their grandparents is so
no that the trends are pretty positive
and they didn't improve when the borders
were closed in the 2030s and 40s the
pace of assimilation for Italians was
basically unchanged even when the
borders were closed what's true is when
you close off immigration you don't have
that stock of new immigrants so it
probably seems like oh assimilation
increasing but it's not increasing at a
different rate um than anybody it I mean
this was the problem with uh
particularly in the90s in Southern
California where there was a constant
flow mostly from Mexico of new Spanish
speakers so it seemed as if nobody was
learning English but if you actually
tracked uh Generations by the third
generation essentially nobody spoke the
mother tongue uh predominant I mean the
Spanish lasts a little longer uh into
the third generation a lot of cases but
what's like I grew up in Southern
California not that they don't know
English but they retain Spanish it's
100% English fluency but then you know
they say they speak Spanish like my
father says he speaks farsy and he
speaks it with a Wisconsin accent like
he's five years old like yeah right it's
like he he jibber jabber jibber jabber
tater tots like it's like the way that
he talks it's hilarious but uh you know
when I was a kid growing up in Southern
California most of the people I knew who
were Hispanic uh spoke with an accent I
go back now and they all have this Nas
accent like I do um they sound like uh
they're native born I mean they are
native born Americans they sound like me
and Brian yeah my favorite debate on
this was against marker Coran head of
Center for immigration studies probably
the leading anti-immigration think tank
in the world and he had this bizarre
statement which he then clarified he
said look immigration is like donuts
immigration is like donuts what does
that mean well delicious yes not his
word he says look when you're when when
you're when you're young you can stuff
your face with donuts eat all you want
and you're fine you don't get fat but
once you're old if you keep eating that
way you're going to be a big fat
disgusting Pig he says and that's how
immigration is for countries a young
country can stuff its face with
immigrants it's all fine but a mature
country can't and I'm like all right
that's an an analogy but like what are
the world are you talking about and then
he said something much more thoughtful
he said well look um back in the 19th
century when an immigrant came to the US
they had to assimilate because the costs
of communication and transportation were
so high due to to to the technology of
the time that they basically were never
going to go back were barely in contact
with the people from The Home Country so
they had to assimilate back then whereas
now you can move here and physically and
yet psychologically remain a citizen of
your home country I've got a colleague
whose wife is from Taiwan and she
basically just lives in Taiwan in
Virginia she just watches Taiwanese
television talks to relatives in Taiwan
she's not assimilating at all all right
so so all right there's something in
what you're saying Mark but you are
forgetting that in the same way
transportation and communication
Technologies allow someone here to not
assimilate they also allow someone who
isn't here to assimilate in 1900 there
were not many Sicilians speaking fluent
English who were up to up to date on
Modern American culture at the time
because the communication and
transportation was so expensive whereas
now the world is full of people who are
what my student Nathaniel Smith calls
pre- assimilated they've never been in
the west but they're very Western I was
just in India and I met hundreds of pre-
assimilated people people whose English
is fluent people who know more about
America than about their own country
they are totally ready to hit the ground
running in a way that basically no one
in India would have been 100 years ago
so yeah it makes sense that we're not
seeing much change overall because we
got two conflicting forces and and in
fact right now we've got like a billion
people who are on earth who are ready to
be Americans without any further Ado
they already are in their own minds how
um let's say a billion people want to
move here uh which strikes me as high uh
or or rather the number who would take
the next step uh you know how many
people do you think uh the us could
assimilate or not assimilate but just
you know take it over the course of a
century I think we could get let's say
over the course of five years five years
so in five years I think we would get 20
to 30 million right there's just a lot
of people who currently have friends and
relatives here and who they could sleep
on their couch these are the people who
pretty much already have their bags
packed as soon as they get the green
light they'll be here uh so of course
that also solves a lot of other problems
well who's going to take care of them
yeah it's going to be their friends and
relatives um but yeah like you know
something just to understand like how
high the potential is the US population
has multiplied about hundred times since
the founding of the country a hundred
times if you would told people that like
in 1789 we can have a hundred times as
many people in this country I think they
just would have thought you were crazy I
it sounds crazy but it happened same
thing United Arab Emirates their
population is multiplied by a factor of
34 in 50 years it really has that's fact
that's not speculation and is it a
disaster it's like no it is awesome go
there don't go there when it's 110
degrees but go there and just look this
is not Theory this is what is actually
possible to unlock by moving human
talent to a place where it's
productive Alex
um to wrap up what what are you uh most
worried about over the next four years
um and what do you you know what is
something positive that you think will
um emerge from kind of the current
turmoil over immigration I am most
worried about uh legal changes that
reduce legal immigration to the United
States changes in statutes new bills
being passed because as Brian said
earlier it's very difficult to undo a
law once you put it into effect
I think if they reduce the number of
green cards that would be a um disaster
most of the the actions that Trump has
taken so far uh could be undone by the
next president if they wanted to laws
passed by Congress not so much so what
I'm most worried about is that they'll
reduce um they'll they'll reduce it and
then it'll be very difficult to get it
back do you see anything positive coming
out of uh this kind of renewed
antagonism towards immigration I think
that we we could see some reductions in
immigrant access to welfare benefits I
guess I have to put something positive
on it that that could be the most
positive thing that we see listen I mean
Donald Trump ran both times on a
platform to reduce legal immigration he
ran on that he said it multiple times
people try to fool you and gas light you
into saying he's against just illegal
immigration it's not true um so I think
that uh he means it he did it last time
he's going to do it again uh Brian what
about you what do what do you worry the
most about over the next uh you know
four years yeah so My worry is the same
as Alex I would say that the probability
of something actually going through
remembering how partisan it is and how
polarized the US is I would only give
that like 15 20% so ultimately I you
know it's it's a concern it's not one
that seems terrible and I'd also give
five or 10% that Doge and Elon do
something awesome like like people have
have underestimated that guy a bunch of
times and yes there's people saying
maybe he's totally evil and terrible
like it's possible but all right like I
don't know him that well but on the
other hand he's also done some great
things and it's just so weird and
chaotic and like just the things that
are happening just the way like Trump
talks about Greenland and I'm like what
the hell like and then it's like one
time no he's talking about it all the
time like like just like the variance of
what can occur maybe what we could do we
could do is is letting greenlands and we
say okay only open borders for Greenland
yeah and we use that as a bridge I don't
know it's pretty they'll go to emirat
they will go to Greenland they totally
would no all right we're going to end uh
the conversation here uh we've been
talking with Alex naso of the KO
Institute and Brian klin of George Mason
about the libertarian case for more
immigration gentlemen thank you thank
you thank you
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