0:00 this is the reason interview with Nick
0:01 Gillespie please subscribe to this
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0:08 with people you think should know
0:11 about one of the very first things that
0:14 Donald Trump did after being sworn in as
0:16 president was to make good on promises
0:18 to reduce both legal and illegal
0:21 immigration he even issued an executive
0:23 order ending Birthright citizenship a
0:26 right guaranteed by the Constitution's
0:28 14th amendment that order has already
0:30 been blocked by a federal judge and its
0:32 fate May well end up being decided by
0:34 the Supreme Court but calls for Less
0:37 immigration are super popular with 55%
0:41 of Americans saying current level should
0:43 be decreased that's the highest since
0:47 2001 I disagree with that I think
0:50 immigration is a good thing and that we
0:51 should have more of it done in an
0:53 orderly peaceful efficient fashion so on
0:57 January 21st the day after Trump's
0:59 inauguration ation I asked George Mason
1:01 University Economist Brian Kaplan and KO
1:05 Institute analyst Alex narasa to make
1:07 the libertarian case for more
1:10 immigration at a live event in New York
1:13 City they've written extensively on the
1:15 topic and I think we answer every
1:18 question and concern anybody might have
1:20 about immigration the goal here was to
1:23 steal man critics of immigration and
1:26 explain why more newcomers is a good
1:28 thing for our culture
1:30 our economy and our country here is the
1:33 reason interview with Brian Kaplan and
1:36 Alex
1:42 narasa all right well let's let's start
1:45 talking um and uh we will uh then uh
1:49 move through a couple of different
1:51 um um sections of this but um first off
1:55 Alex we are you know a day one plus one
2:00 and a half I don't know whatever into
2:01 the Trump
2:03 Administration uh Donald Trump both in
2:06 2016 but then especially in this past
2:08 election cycle you know campaigned on
2:12 limiting immigration getting rid of
2:13 illegals Etc what did he do in day one
2:16 he promised a very big day one related
2:19 to immigration what was the primary
2:22 outcome of what he did and is this a
2:24 good or bad thing so he promised to
2:26 reduce legal immigration and illegal
2:29 immigration if you look back to his
2:31 effects during his first Administration
2:33 the biggest effect he had was on
2:35 reducing the legal immigrant population
2:37 and inflows not the illegal during his
2:39 time and what he did was he declared an
2:42 invasion that there is an invasion going
2:45 on along the border he had multiple
2:47 paragraphs explaining and trying to
2:49 argue that there was an invasion usually
2:51 you don't need multiple paragraphs to
2:53 describe an invasion like you just know
2:55 like hey the Nazis are coming they're
2:57 here like you know when that happen you
2:59 tried to justify
3:00 and then uh as a result of that says uh
3:02 because there's an invasion
3:04 extraordinary powers he shut down the
3:06 Asylum system making it virtually
3:07 impossible to apply for Asylum along uh
3:10 the Border also that part of the
3:12 Constitution that's activated allows
3:14 states to wage war I'm not sure how
3:16 they're going to wage war on immigration
3:18 along the border but we'll see as things
3:20 develop there are some pretty creative
3:22 uh border state Governors uh he also
3:24 shut down the res uh Refugee system uh
3:27 for this year it's a temporary pause he
3:29 says
3:30 uh but uh given the numbers that have
3:32 already come in it's shutting down at
3:34 least for the rest of the year uh he has
3:37 declared the uh drug cartels to be
3:40 foreign terrorist organizations so now
3:42 when anybody's killed along the border
3:44 in a drug dispute it's going to be
3:46 considered an active terrorism uh this
3:48 is important because not a single
3:50 American has been killed uh by an
3:52 illegal immigrant in a terrorist attack
3:54 in the last 50 years as far as we can
3:56 tell despite him talking about it
3:58 frequently and he also issued an
3:59 executive order um that is seeks to
4:03 modify the rules about Birthright
4:05 citizenship uh basically call it the
4:07 Kamala Harris order because it is
4:09 designed I think specifically to troll
4:11 Camala Harris to basically remove
4:13 citizenship from her because the way
4:16 that it's defined would basically apply
4:17 to her and could very briefly explain
4:20 that so if you don't have a uh parent
4:23 who is a lawful permanent resident or a
4:25 citizen when you're born then you won't
4:27 be considered a citizen starting in
4:30 about 30 days for people born after that
4:33 now if the courts uphold that then of
4:35 course they're going to expand it uh and
4:37 try to go backwards as far as possible
4:39 he also declared uh all manner of
4:40 emergency along the border that allows
4:42 him to activate uh enormous amount of
4:45 funds the basically be able to uh
4:47 redirect military construction funds
4:50 unilaterally to uh build the Border uh
4:53 to deploy the National Guard if he wants
4:55 to along the border to do all manner of
4:57 other types of military operations could
4:59 you very quickly I know both you and
5:02 your uh your colleague at Ko David beer
5:05 um have written about this extensively
5:07 Trump in his first term he was
5:10 particularly going after illegal
5:11 immigrants but he ended up actually kind
5:15 of cutting legal immigration more than
5:17 illegal immigration and that seems
5:19 counterintuitive what what was going on
5:20 with that so I think it's actually U
5:22 more intuitive than not because the
5:24 president has control over the legal
5:26 system he can adjust that almost any way
5:29 that he wants thanks to some really
5:31 stupid Supreme Court decisions during
5:33 his term uh but it's a black market
5:36 illegal immigration he has less control
5:38 over that sure he can adjust the
5:39 incentives and the deterrent by building
5:42 up border security or or other types of
5:44 measures but he has the most direct
5:46 control over the legal system and so
5:48 that is what He adjusted and if you read
5:50 his platform that he put out for 2016 I
5:52 know it's funny like a trump platform
5:54 like haha whatever but uh it said in
5:57 there specifically he wanted to cut
5:58 legal immigration by 2/3 and then by the
6:01 time of covid um he exceeded that uh
6:04 part of that of course is in reaction to
6:05 the pandemic but even before then he cut
6:07 student visas uh skilled
6:10 immigration um all manner of work visas
6:13 Etc before we go to Brian I want to just
6:15 follow up with one other point how do we
6:17 know that there is not an invasion of
6:20 America or that's the wrong term uh to
6:23 to put it but under Joe Biden a massive
6:26 number of immigrants legal and illegal
6:28 entered the country
6:30 why is it wrong to characterize that as
6:32 an invasion so I think there's a big
6:37 difference right between the Germans
6:40 going to Paris in
6:42 1940 and you know 100,000 of them ahead
6:45 of an army and 100,000 Germans going
6:48 today to get jobs you know it's not a
6:50 military Invasion it's not a conquest
6:54 they are coming here because Americans
6:56 demand their labor and want to hire them
6:58 we've had an extraord ordinarily large
7:00 number of job openings for the last 5
7:03 years after the recovery of Co Americans
7:05 want to hire them they want to rent
7:08 apartments to them they want to sell
7:10 them goods and services and mutually
7:11 beneficial and voluntary exchanges right
7:14 like a foreign army doesn't come to
7:16 repair your deck uh but these people are
7:19 coming to uh they they come to blow it
7:21 up right but immigrants are coming to
7:22 build it and to supply the goods and
7:24 services that we want to buy and consume
7:28 and I'm sure some of them are bad people
7:30 but uh yeah well some of us are bad
7:34 people too right uh Brian what what do
7:37 you mean uh one of when you as one does
7:41 as a Libertarian and you talk to people
7:43 and they say oh you're a Libertarian so
7:44 you believe in open borders what do you
7:47 mean by open
7:48 borders well let's see I got to debate
7:50 for Intelligence Squared a few years ago
7:52 and the resolution was let anyone take a
7:54 job anywhere I think that's a good
7:57 slogan I think of open borders as a
7:59 slogan of human beings should be able to
8:02 go and move back and forth between
8:04 countries live and work without
8:06 government permission um if you say well
8:09 does that mean open regardless of
8:11 whether the person shows up carrying an
8:13 axe of course not I'd say that's just
8:15 understood in terms of normal English uh
8:18 a way that I've sometimes explained it
8:20 which is if you don't belong in jail
8:22 then you should be able to go and move
8:23 back and forth freely between countries
8:25 right because open borders also doesn't
8:27 mean open up the jails right are are you
8:30 um are you talking about a kind of Ellis
8:32 Island style I mean there would be some
8:34 place where people would show their
8:36 passport or something like that or do we
8:39 you know abolish borders completely I
8:42 mean honestly I'd say that's just a
8:43 detail and it's just not very important
8:46 I mean like it's true if you say like
8:47 you have to show a Passport well if
8:48 you've driven around the EU you don't
8:50 have to show passports to go between
8:51 those countries um you don't need to do
8:54 show a passport to go between Virginia
8:56 and Maryland doesn't that mean that uh
8:58 ax murder from Maryland could freely go
9:00 into Virginia and attack people it does
9:02 actually however it's really convenient
9:05 for everybody else
9:07 so the idea of just actually having no
9:11 no checks at all and you can come and go
9:12 freely I think that the case for that is
9:14 way stronger than what most people think
9:16 because it's very inconvenient to have
9:18 to get checked as you will know if you
9:21 if you have actually gone through
9:22 passport control it's like wow this a
9:24 pain in the neck all right but I don't
9:26 regard that as an important issue and
9:27 say look if you just have to go and show
9:29 your passport all right fine it's not
9:31 that big of a deal um I mean honestly
9:33 the main thing to understand is that for
9:35 tourists this pain in the net cost is
9:37 actually pretty serious and probably
9:38 greatly reduces tourism because it's a
9:41 large percentage of the gain you're
9:43 getting from going to that other country
9:45 uh there's been some interesting work
9:46 saying that just requiring visas Cuts
9:48 international travel to your country by
9:50 about
9:51 70% why do so many countries insist on
9:54 visas yeah it's a great question um it's
9:57 it's mostly just total paranoia National
9:59 Pride I actually got to be on a panel
10:01 with modi's top economic adviser in
10:04 India and when I mentioned this he just
10:07 got quite well actually it was the monp
10:09 society I mentioned since he was in
10:11 charge of getting rid of a bunch of
10:12 stupid regulations I said here's one
10:14 that you might consider and since almost
10:16 everybody there was not from India
10:17 there's wild Applause and then he said
10:20 well you well we will do it when the
10:22 United States gives us free Visa free
10:24 travel and I'm like okay I think that
10:26 would be great but that's not going to
10:27 happen for the obvious reason that very
10:30 few Americans want to move to India and
10:32 start working there and a lot of Indians
10:34 would like to move to the US and start
10:36 working there and when you have a system
10:37 designed to prevent people from move
10:39 from working you is that is a large part
10:42 of the fear of immigration systems that
10:44 someone might move to your country and
10:45 try to produce something and one of the
10:47 interesting things
10:48 is uh before World War I there were only
10:51 two countries in the world that required
10:53 passports those beacons of freedom and
10:55 liberty in Europe the Ottoman Empire and
10:58 the Russian Empire and the rest of the
11:00 world seems to have converged to those
11:02 standards during the war so tell me uh
11:04 Alex what what happened because uh you
11:08 know America broadly speaking goes
11:10 through I mean from the colonial period
11:12 really on uh but goes through waves of
11:15 being kind of pro-immigrant and
11:17 anti-immigrant um it doesn't necessarily
11:20 match up with whether or not people are
11:21 moving here or not but you know we go
11:23 through cycles of this and over the past
11:25 few years there has been an intense uh
11:29 antipathy that has had you know has
11:31 political force to say you know IM we
11:34 have too much immigration we uh you know
11:36 legal and illegal things are out of
11:38 control what is driving that perception
11:41 the chaos at the border the chaos at the
11:44 border caused by the virtual
11:47 impossibility for the vast majority of
11:49 immigrants to come here legally uh wages
11:51 in the United States depending on how
11:52 you measure like three to 15 times
11:55 higher uh adjusting for the cost of
11:57 living than in other countries there's
11:58 enormous demand for these people to come
12:00 here the job market job openings have
12:02 been extraordinary for the last several
12:04 years in the United States Americans
12:05 want to hire them and so a lot more
12:07 people have been coming and you know
12:08 there have been some changes in terms of
12:10 policy on the border but in terms of the
12:12 effect of those changes by Biden on
12:14 illegal immigration they're vastly
12:16 overstated uh for instance December 2020
12:19 the month before Trump left office was
12:21 the highest December to that point in
12:23 terms of Border apprehensions in 21
12:25 years because the job market was
12:27 recovering quite greatly after the end
12:29 of Co people and apprehensions is a
12:31 proxy for the number of people who also
12:34 get through it's a proxy people use it
12:36 as a proxy for that but it's it's a real
12:39 measure of the chaos right and I don't
12:41 think anybody I certainly don't look at
12:43 these pictures of large numbers of
12:44 people coming across being apprehended
12:46 you know sometimes a little mini Riot
12:49 sometimes they assault border patrol
12:50 officers or scale walls I don't like
12:52 that you know I'm I'm a Libertarian but
12:54 I do like order uh I like some laws uh
12:57 but I like order lot and I think that
13:00 but this is the chaos that is born and
13:02 created from laws that are hyper
13:05 restrictive and that prevent people from
13:08 engaging in the mutually beneficial
13:10 voluntary exchanges that they want so I
13:12 think the chaos is driving a large
13:14 percentage of it oh can I say something
13:17 on that yeah so I think it is a bit more
13:19 complicated in a few ways first of all
13:21 I'm not convinced there was ever a
13:22 period when immigration was popular in
13:23 the US right so here I I mean just to
13:27 say like when you if if you look at
13:29 Gallup which asked the same question to
13:31 representative groups uh actually under
13:34 Trump the people who agreed with the
13:36 sentiment that uh immigrants have mostly
13:38 been a benefit to the country went up to
13:40 about 75% the highest they recorded it's
13:43 now below 50% so that's that's what I'm
13:45 talking so well let me this way so we've
13:48 actually got data going I think it is
13:49 Gallop data going back from the 60s so
13:51 the share of the US population that
13:53 favored more immigration was in single
13:55 digits for many decades mean basically
13:59 from like the beginning around 1965 up
14:01 to about 2000 it would generally be
14:03 under 10% of Americans said there should
14:04 be more immigration this is a time when
14:07 immigration was lower and then around
14:09 2000 it started going up uh it is true I
14:11 think in the last couple of years it
14:12 went down a bit from its historic Peak
14:15 but uh and then if you just go back to
14:17 the 19th century you don't have public
14:18 opinion data from then so it's hard to
14:20 know but I don't like there's enough
14:23 nativist movements and enough moves to
14:24 go into St immigration like why was
14:26 there ever open borders there's this
14:28 great paper on how open borders ended in
14:30 six countries that just goes over US
14:33 Canada Argentina Brazil New Zealand
14:36 what's what's the answer so honestly the
14:38 answer is they don't know but uh it did
14:40 end in six countries and I think the
14:43 main thing you can say is that the like
14:44 the easy stories are wrong it's not just
14:47 that objective facts change in some way
14:49 and then people rationally responded to
14:51 them and in general I would just say
14:53 that while political advisers like the
14:55 idea that public opinion is moving in
14:57 response to facts we have a lot lot of
14:59 evidence that that is not so public
15:01 opinion moves in response to perceptions
15:02 which themselves really have very little
15:04 to do with facts I don't know about
15:06 immigration but like for example there's
15:08 a fantastic paper on perceived versus
15:11 actual inequality around the world and
15:14 here's the quick version of that paper
15:16 the correlation between actual
15:18 inequality in a country and perceived
15:19 inequality by the people who live in
15:21 that country is point2 which is barely
15:24 noticeable and the correlation between
15:26 perceived changes in inequality and
15:28 actual changes inequality is zero so
15:31 when you see the people are getting
15:32 upset about inequality and say oh it's
15:34 because inequality is so high it's like
15:35 it's got nothing to do with it it's just
15:38 that people get upset about stuff and
15:39 it's got almost nothing to do with
15:41 numbers which is no surprise when you
15:42 realize how people don't like math what
15:44 happens in the political economy though
15:47 because you know with um the the major
15:51 widescale immigration restrictions in
15:54 the United States that were ultimately
15:56 voted in in 1924 there was about a
15:59 40-year period uh that was coincidental
16:02 with a massive increase in the number of
16:04 people coming from Europe where
16:06 politicians working with Community
16:08 leaders Etc created a groundwell for uh
16:12 you know a series of Acts that passed
16:14 pretty overwhelmingly in Congress so
16:16 what what goes into that why why and and
16:19 I guess more so now how does that map on
16:22 to you know the anxieties and the
16:25 concerns that you know it's clear Trump
16:28 would campaigned as you know he was
16:30 going to cut immigration and that you
16:32 know people responded to that pretty
16:34 strongly yeah so Alex may know a lot
16:36 more than me but so you're talking about
16:37 the 1924 Act and why that passed right
16:39 so basically there's a whole series of
16:41 immigration restrictions acts I had a
16:43 grad student that went through all the
16:44 ones that failed as well as all the ones
16:46 that succeeded from like 1870 up
16:50 till not sure when but anyway um you
16:54 know the main story is that all the
16:56 complaints you hear about immigrants now
16:58 were also very widely shared in that
17:00 period from late 19th century up to
17:03 early early 20th century every complaint
17:04 you've heard about crime and effect on
17:07 labor markets and effect on culture all
17:10 that stuff was around it was very subtle
17:12 differences like the main thing is that
17:14 anti-immigration people in those days
17:16 talked about our Nordic race right which
17:18 is the actual language they would use
17:20 and and when they said immigration will
17:22 destroy our Nordic race turns out they
17:24 were right because any nordics around
17:25 here I don't know any nordics so now you
17:28 realize well it's it's really just a
17:29 change in change in self identity in
17:33 self now may they're dying their hair
17:36 yes um but so you ter yeah but but in
17:39 terms of how it passed like there was
17:40 just a lot of negativity towards
17:42 immigrants for a long time and then they
17:45 managed to get over the hump but it
17:46 doesn't seem like it was particularly
17:48 even then there was some stuff about
17:50 some socialist terrorists Anarchist
17:52 terrorists after World War I but you
17:54 like it's very easy after the fact to
17:56 say well there's some scandals right
17:58 before but there's always scandals but I
18:00 mean there were you know there was there
18:02 were concerted movements to pass laws
18:05 that would restrict immigrants from
18:06 coming and then the question is how do
18:08 you how do you get the the people to
18:10 come out and vote for that or for it to
18:12 be pushed top down I mean Alex do you
18:14 have a sense of what what we might learn
18:17 from the restrictionist movement in the
18:20 early part of the 20th century and now I
18:22 mean are they following the same script
18:24 oh it's very similar I mean they tried
18:26 multiple times I mean there is a law
18:28 passed in the eight late 1890s that
18:31 basically would have done then what they
18:33 did in 1924 and it and it passed but it
18:36 was vetoed and there were a couple other
18:37 bills like this that were veto they had
18:39 some restrictions that they're able to
18:40 put in but they were very persistent
18:43 they were very dedicated they had a
18:44 clear cause that everyone could
18:46 understand and then I think you had a
18:47 few things happen in the 19 uh teens
18:50 right you had World War I that stopped a
18:52 lot of immigration I think people were
18:53 like oh this s this pretty good we don't
18:55 have all these boats of these uh uh
18:57 gross foreigners coming in I think is
18:59 the way that they were thinking about it
19:00 and then I do think um the uh you know
19:03 some of the perceptions of chaos and the
19:05 real chaos there were hundreds of
19:06 bombings um across the United States the
19:09 Socialist Revolution and um in Russia
19:13 convinced actually some businesses for
19:14 the first time to support closing the
19:17 Border because they're afraid of that
19:18 because the the old nativist
19:20 organizations when they failed in their
19:22 laws um they they had it was a
19:24 politically incorrect phrase but they
19:26 would basically blame the quote Jew use
19:29 Jesuits and
19:30 steamships uh Jews being obvious uh they
19:33 didn't like them uh Jesuits being
19:35 Catholics they don't like them very much
19:37 uh big lobbies for immigration but
19:39 steamships being a standin for firms
19:40 that benefited from immigration and
19:43 there was a bit of a sea change in the
19:44 early 20s where you had some big
19:46 industrialists come out because they
19:47 were sort of worried about these red
19:49 bombing so I think it's the um you know
19:51 you have a persist nativists have a
19:53 persistent message it's very easy to
19:55 communicate there's a lot of popularity
19:57 from it and then when you have some uh
20:00 break in the system or some deviation
20:02 from the norval trends and some chaos uh
20:05 it's it's a way to take advantage of it
20:07 you also had a n a huge labor a labor
20:09 movement that was growing that was
20:10 fiercely nativist inspired by Eugenics
20:13 ideology that saw Northern and that all
20:16 Southern and Eastern Europeans who are
20:17 the main immigrant groups as being
20:18 inferior there was a fun it's not funny
20:21 but a book written at the time called um
20:24 the oh well that's gone uh the uh the
20:27 Melting Pot mistake published in the
20:29 1920s about the uh about how you know
20:32 Eastern Europeans Jews and uh Southern
20:35 Europeans would never assimilate to our
20:37 great Nordic
20:38 ways well thing why we're talking about
20:41 the greater regulation immigration also
20:43 worth remembering so 1965 we have this
20:46 act that heavily deregulates immigration
20:48 although if you know the legislative
20:49 history I can't how do you pronounce the
20:51 guy's name GJ L TN uh jilton jilton
20:55 right so he goes over the actual
20:56 legislative history it's fascinating
20:58 because it appears that the the the
21:00 liberalization of immigration was a
21:01 complete mistake the people that were
21:03 involved did not intend it then rather
21:05 it was basically we want to keep America
21:07 white without well without being racist
21:09 anymore so what can we do let's make
21:11 family reunification the basis for
21:13 immigration there's nothing racist about
21:14 families is there just coincidentally
21:16 most people here are white so their
21:18 families will be white right and they
21:20 just didn't seem to realize the effect
21:22 of chain migration in particular saying
21:24 that brothers and sisters siblings would
21:26 count as relatives for purpose as a
21:28 family unification and also the fact
21:30 that most white Americans wouldn't have
21:32 foreign relatives to bring over whereas
21:34 non-white nonwhites would so think
21:36 there's some story of a Nigerian Doctor
21:38 Who is the basis for 150 Nigerians
21:40 getting in right and the logic is simple
21:43 it's like if you can let in your
21:44 brothers and sisters then you can get in
21:46 their spouses and if the their spouses
21:48 get in they can get in their brothers
21:50 and sisters and so on and so really it
21:52 looks like this was not a response to
21:54 anything other than cold war and wanting
21:56 to have better PR but they ACD Al
21:59 actually led to a massive increase in
22:01 Immigration combined with this feature
22:03 of the US which is once you pass
22:05 legislation it's really hard to unpass
22:06 it so tell uh uh Brian what is the case
22:11 for more immigration because a lot of
22:13 people and you know uh last year I guess
22:17 I was part of a free press debate uh
22:19 with uh so robari and an cter on the
22:22 other side and they pointed an in
22:25 particular to that 65 law which had many
22:28 unintended consequences as when the
22:30 hit the fan um why is it good that that
22:34 Nigerian doctor brings over 150 of his
22:37 closest relatives yeah great Point uh so
22:40 I recently wrote an open letter to Elon
22:41 Musk which is called E of X is greater
22:43 than zero uh just to begin with the kind
22:47 of immigration that almost every
22:48 rational person wants it's like well we
22:50 want Albert Einstein we want Geniuses we
22:52 want people that found companies we want
22:54 baseball players and movie stars right
22:57 because though why because those people
22:58 add value all right it's like all right
23:00 so far so good yeah they do add value
23:02 they add a lot of value it's like but
23:05 then once you can admit that these very
23:07 high skill immigrants are adding a lot
23:09 of value then the question is all right
23:11 well are they the only people at Value
23:13 it's like do you need to add hundred
23:16 billion dollar worth of value to be a
23:17 worthwhile person it's like no how about
23:20 people only add one billion yeah they're
23:22 good too all right how about people only
23:24 add like 10 million yeah them how about
23:27 people only add a million good how about
23:30 people at 100,000 right and so on right
23:33 so you know the way that I was
23:34 explaining this to Elon I don't think he
23:36 read it but I'm still anyway if you if
23:38 you got a line to him uh it would only
23:39 take five minutes of his time uh is well
23:42 you know probably he could do it in two
23:44 minutes it's very smart you know when
23:46 you're when you're running a company it
23:48 is not the case that the janitors are
23:50 parasites on the rest of the company
23:52 right the janitors they don't contribute
23:54 as much as the CEO but they are still
23:57 valuable people people who more than
23:59 pull their weight and if you look at
24:01 immigration that way you realize wow you
24:04 people who are generally very low
24:06 skilled they still they they take care
24:08 of kids they mow Lawns they grow food
24:11 why is it that people are so eager to
24:13 keep people out just because they are
24:14 lows skilled and again we can be totally
24:16 honest and say look they are not Albert
24:18 Einstein without saying therefore we
24:20 don't want them I say that's really the
24:22 basic economic case is saying let in all
24:24 the people that actually are better than
24:26 nothing and which is almost everybody's
24:29 better than nothing and I like Alex can
24:31 I can I ask um uh Alex you have done
24:35 work on kind of quantifying though the
24:38 amount of benefits of you know of
24:41 tax-funded benefits that uh immigrants
24:43 get particularly low-skilled immigrants
24:45 this is an argument that comes up again
24:47 and again which is to say well you know
24:49 in the 20s you know those Jews and
24:52 Jesuits you whatever else you can say
24:54 about them is that they weren't getting
24:56 you know a temporary assistance for
24:59 needy families and things like that they
25:01 weren't going to public schools that
25:02 cost $30,000 a year um how do you how
25:06 did how does that factor in that
25:07 calculation factor into that argument of
25:11 saying let them all in so uh when you
25:14 take a look at the welfare consumption
25:16 of people who are foreign born compared
25:18 to native born Americans it's a it's on
25:20 average 27% less the dollar value when
25:23 you look at the entirety of uh means
25:25 tested in entitlement programs uh in the
25:28 United States so it's 27% less that's
25:31 part for a handful of reasons one is
25:33 they are legally restricted from certain
25:35 benefits for periods of time uh
25:38 especially when uh for the first five
25:39 years that they are here lawfully uh
25:41 illegal immigrants have very little
25:43 access to benefits it depends on some
25:45 State policies uh but they have access
25:48 to a handful of benefits in a few uh
25:50 States but not very many public school
25:52 is the big one but of course the other
25:54 side of the calculation is the taxes
25:56 right so it's the value of the services
25:59 that they consume and it's the taxes
26:01 that they pay but it's not just what
26:02 they pay specifically but also the taxes
26:05 paid from the extra economic activity
26:07 that results from them being here right
26:09 so the higher corporate profits from
26:11 being able to expand production and sell
26:13 more goods and services uh from
26:15 everything like that from the higher uh
26:17 property values because there's more
26:18 people who are buying uh property so
26:21 property tax revenue goes up even if the
26:23 rates remain the same and when you
26:25 balance that up there's a lot of
26:26 different research on both sides a lot
26:28 of really boring models that go back and
26:30 forth uh I spent a whole summer reading
26:32 them I think you read that working paper
26:33 one time it was like the most boring
26:35 summer ever because basically the result
26:37 right oh
26:39 yeah the um it's uh and so uh basically
26:42 the result was that they mostly pay
26:44 their way there's some variation here
26:47 sometimes some lower skilled immigrants
26:48 don't on average sometimes they do based
26:50 on the model and the methods of it but
26:53 basically immigration is not driving any
26:56 the fiscal problems in the US government
26:57 the fiscal problems are being spent by
26:59 tax and budget policies outside of that
27:03 so but but I want to say if that still
27:05 concerns you the easy answer is to build
27:06 a higher wall around the welfare state
27:08 not around the country is that uh I
27:11 agree with you um but is that really
27:14 plausible because you know when you say
27:17 um you know they on average immigrants
27:19 take 27% Less in transfer payments than
27:22 native born people why isn't it zero or
27:26 should it be zero it should be zero for
27:27 every body uh but yeah if we can only
27:30 make it zero for immigrants and I would
27:32 uh do that right away the thing is the
27:34 most successful long-term part of the
27:37 1996 welfare reform Act was permanently
27:40 reducing immigrant welfare use uh
27:43 substantially below that of uh native
27:46 born Americans and most not all but most
27:48 of those restrictions are stuck around
27:50 and I do have a feeling uh that we're
27:52 going to have more restrictions on
27:53 immigrant access to welfare in the next
27:55 couple years which is would be one of
27:57 the few things uh good on immigration
28:00 policy that were come out of this
28:01 Administration Brian could you talk
28:03 about the job impacts of immigrants
28:05 whether they're high skill or low skill
28:08 this is also a major argument against
28:11 you know more immigration or immigration
28:13 in general is that immigrants come here
28:16 and they take our jobs uh and you know
28:19 and they take our jobs whether we're in
28:21 s Valley or whether we're pool cleaners
28:24 in Southern California is that accurate
28:28 the correct way to start is to say well
28:30 if you are directly competing with an
28:31 immigrant then probably they're bad for
28:33 you in the labor market letting in a
28:34 bunch of foreign py economists is bad
28:36 for me all right on the other hand if
28:39 they are immigrants that so these are
28:41 immigrants that produce what you produce
28:42 are bad for you however immigrants who
28:45 produce what you consume are good for
28:47 you when you let in Afghan restauranteur
28:49 into my area I'm not worried about
28:51 losing my job I'm saying wow now my
28:53 money buys more and better stuff so for
28:56 any person you can say you need to at
28:57 least consider both the the fact that
29:01 they are competing with you for jobs but
29:02 also competing with your money competing
29:03 for your money competing with you for
29:05 your jobs is bad for you competing for
29:06 money is good for you and then say well
29:08 what's the net effect and that is where
29:10 we can go back to what should be taught
29:12 on the first day of every in econ one
29:14 class and it's this The Secret of mass
29:17 consumption is mass production all rich
29:19 countries are countries that produce a
29:21 lot of stuff for person right and as
29:23 long as you in a country where there's
29:25 very high production rsion it is almost
29:26 certain that you too will have at least
29:28 a reasonably good standard of living and
29:30 this is the heart of the economic case
29:32 for immigration which is that we know
29:35 for a fact that when you let in someone
29:37 from a poor country into a rich country
29:39 their productivity skyrockets overnight
29:42 it's really obvious for agriculture you
29:44 let a Mexican farmer in to work on a US
29:46 farm and he's suddenly growing 10 times
29:48 as much food as he was back in Mexico
29:49 that's just fact you let in someone
29:51 who's working in a primitive Factory in
29:53 India to a modern Western Factory he's
29:55 suddenly producing a lot more that's
29:57 fact the the only one that's a little
29:59 puzzling is what about a service like
30:02 shining shoes it's not like a Haitian
30:04 shines more shoes in Miami than he does
30:06 back in Haiti right and the answer there
30:09 is for services you have to remember the
30:10 point of of a service is to save time
30:13 and when you save more valuable time you
30:15 contribute more to the world so if you
30:17 save five minutes of Bill Gates's time
30:19 you have done more for the world than
30:20 when you save five minutes of my time
30:22 and that's why Services actually do also
30:24 enrich Humanity when you leave Haiti and
30:27 move to the US you now saving the time
30:28 of people's time is worth 10 times as
30:30 much and that's where that extra
30:32 productivity comes so I'd say that like
30:35 you know the best way to think about
30:36 this is say like it at first it's
30:38 ambiguous and then you realize no it's
30:40 not ambiguous at all because you need to
30:42 keep your eye on the ball production
30:44 when you were increasing total
30:45 production you were increasing the
30:46 wealth humanity and there is no example
30:49 in economic history I have at least none
30:52 that I am aware of where there was a
30:53 large incre increase in production that
30:55 was not broadly shared it is not the
30:57 case that building textile factories
30:59 just inrich Factory owners not the case
31:01 that vaccines only enrich pharmaceutical
31:03 companies it's not that the internet
31:05 just enrich programmers when you produce
31:07 abundance the abundance winds up being
31:09 shared through normal Market processes
31:12 uh Alex uh we've heard a lot over the
31:15 past few uh weeks or months about H1B
31:18 visas and how immigrants are taking
31:22 advantage of those and pulling money out
31:24 of American Pockets uh of ual workers
31:28 and potential workers can you just very
31:31 quickly explain what the H1B Visa
31:33 program is and whether or not the
31:35 critique of it is accurate uh the H1B
31:37 Visa is a temporary high-skilled Visa
31:40 program for people it's a minimum wage
31:42 of $60,000 it's a three-year Visa
31:45 renewable once and the company can
31:48 sponsor you for a green card and so long
31:50 as you're working for them you can work
31:51 on that uh the backlog for it is
31:54 tremendous for certain countries to get
31:57 that green card because the Visa the
31:59 Green Card system which is the first
32:01 step to becoming a citizen uh the green
32:03 C so people go often times from student
32:06 to H1B to Green Card the backlog is per
32:09 country so only 7% of people who get a
32:11 green card each year can come from any
32:12 one country so the backlog for some
32:15 Indians in some Visa C in some green
32:17 card categories is about 150 years like
32:21 if you ordered a car in the Soviet Union
32:24 you would get it before you got a green
32:26 card in the American system if you're an
32:28 Indian so the these workers are highly
32:29 skilled so it's 60,000 minimum wage the
32:32 average wage for an H1B worker is about
32:35 $119,000 year there uh what it's 65,000
32:39 per year plus another 20 or 25,000 yeah
32:42 65,000 plus another 20 who are graduates
32:44 for private companies but nonprofit
32:47 research institutions including
32:49 universities and the KO Institute where
32:51 I work are exempt from that numerical
32:54 cap so they don't so I actually compete
32:57 with more immigrant workers and just
32:58 about anybody uh in the country Brian I
33:01 guess too on this on this
33:03 regard they're taking my job at Harvard
33:07 750,000 or so H1B Visa the government
33:10 doesn't actually count them because of
33:12 course the government wouldn't count the
33:13 interesting important things uh but
33:15 those are some of the estimates of them
33:17 and so the the argument recently is that
33:20 uh these are taking the jobs of you know
33:22 hard uh hardworking blue SK uh blue
33:24 collar uh American workers in technology
33:27 science engineering uh and uh
33:31 mathematics there's not really much
33:33 evidence of this firms hire H1B visas
33:35 it's an expensive Visa process when
33:37 they're expanding and increasing their
33:40 Labor uh demand in the United States
33:43 it's it's a wonderful uh visa to bring
33:46 skilled people here there's a lot of
33:48 problems with it uh a lot of regulations
33:50 I delete in that visa and that uh in
33:52 that category to make it easier for
33:53 people in it but uh people are I I just
33:57 it's it's an amazing turn of events
33:58 where people are blaming and and don't
34:00 like a
34:01 high-skilled uh visa for people and we
34:04 saw this in the great H1B Wars on
34:06 Twitter if uh everybody remembers that
34:08 from a few weeks ago I mean at least
34:10 it's nice that people can admit the
34:11 minimum wage can be harmful to the
34:13 workers that are affected yeah um let's
34:16 talk love the Silver Lining Brian let's
34:18 talk a little bit about that because you
34:20 know the the anti-immigrant
34:22 rhetoric um or or immigration
34:26 restriction uh rhetoric is is really
34:28 coming from the right now I mean the
34:29 left or you know the Republicans
34:32 Democrats sometimes walk up to it in the
34:34 1990s it was very different Bill Clinton
34:37 in 96 famously campaigned on getting rid
34:40 of illegal immigrants and tightening
34:41 things up uh but you know so these
34:44 things switch but it's coming from the
34:45 right there was a big uh kind of
34:48 squabble between kind of Maga
34:50 contingents uh who were saying no
34:52 immigrants are terrible and h-1bs we
34:54 should get rid of all of them and then
34:56 people like Elon Musk who as the year of
34:58 the president who works in industries
35:01 that use a lot of H1B Visa people and
35:03 they say you know we need these people
35:05 Brian how do you think that is likely to
35:07 play out in a political Coalition that
35:10 is very much behind Donald Trump who's
35:12 very much anti-immigrant andan I'd say
35:14 that you should always start with the
35:16 base rate which is just the status quo
35:18 this is even when people say they really
35:20 want to change things most often they
35:22 don't so I'd start with there uh in
35:24 terms of what's actually likely to
35:26 happen you you're right you've got two
35:29 forces you've got some very populous
35:31 people saying let's even go after high
35:33 school immigration and then on the other
35:34 hand you've got Elon saying that's a
35:36 terrible idea net effect you I I guess I
35:39 would still go with I think it's going
35:41 to be about the base rate I don't think
35:42 Elon is going to get them to expand it I
35:44 don't think the other people are likely
35:46 to crush Elon and get it crushed but I
35:49 would also say I believe what Alex says
35:51 more than what I say so what do you say
35:52 Alex uh yeah so uh it's well thank you
35:55 Brian uh but uh you know it's it's it's
35:57 it's really interesting because you know
35:58 Elon came on one of these
36:00 visas and uh he had Visa troubles at
36:03 different times and he's a man who has
36:05 produced more economic value than any
36:07 other living person and he would not
36:09 have been able to do the same thing in
36:11 South Africa uh where he came from to
36:13 say nothing about that but in terms of
36:15 what's going to happen um I agree I
36:17 think things are actually going to get
36:19 worse um I don't think Elon is going to
36:22 have too much influence on the direction
36:26 of immigration policy into the Trump
36:28 Administration he might delay things a
36:29 few weeks here or there uh but it's sort
36:31 of the same thing you see with like woke
36:33 policies inside of government agencies
36:36 right it's like you have a steady a
36:37 committed group of bureaucrats who are
36:40 really in woke ideology pushing it uh
36:43 and so no matter what the politicians
36:44 say it becomes larger and push and and
36:48 grows and what you have is like that
36:50 that the huge source of human capital in
36:52 the American Republican party now for
36:54 managing agencies is in the immigration
36:57 bureaucracy they actually know what
36:58 they're doing as opposed to a lot of
37:00 other agencies so you have a committed
37:02 group of bureaucrats who are committed
37:03 to this the Steven Miller of the world
37:05 and dozens of other people who are just
37:08 on the other side of this from Elon and
37:11 when Trump says publicly like he said
37:13 today he likes the H1B Visa he's like I
37:14 love waiters and the people who work at
37:16 my Resorts he's confusing the H1B with
37:18 another Visa called the h2b
37:21 Visa he normally doesn't make that kind
37:24 of mistake right yeah well I I would put
37:26 it this way my money is on people like
37:28 Steven Miller who actually work in the
37:31 government and are more trusted by the
37:32 president than on Elon even though you
37:35 know one of the things uh we haven't had
37:38 comprehensive immigration reform really
37:40 since the late 80s when Ronald Reagan
37:42 who was exceedingly pro-immigration and
37:46 a pro-immigrant
37:47 uh uh you know helped Forge a synthesis
37:51 wasn't all good um we haven't been able
37:53 to have comprehensive immigration reform
37:56 is it possible that Stephen Miller
37:57 though can put together a consensus for
38:01 a an exclusionary set of uh immigration
38:04 policies I think it's very Poss it's
38:06 certainly the mo the highest chance that
38:08 I've seen in my lifetime for instance
38:10 there was just a bill passed that will
38:12 be passed if it hasn't already today the
38:13 lake and Riley act explain who Lake and
38:16 Riley is uh Lake and Riley was a student
38:19 uh in Georgia who was murdered by this
38:22 uh illegal immigrant from Venezuela
38:23 named I believe it's Jose abara and uh
38:26 uhar was recently convicted of that in
38:29 Georgia in late 2024 so the lake and
38:31 Riley act and he had been arrested a
38:33 couple times at different spots so the
38:35 lake and Riley act does two things one
38:37 of them it says that if you're arrested
38:39 for any kind of theft in the US in your
38:42 illegal immigrant then they have to hold
38:43 you in government detention and remove
38:46 you I don't that doesn't really keep me
38:49 up at night but the third part of it
38:51 which is the part that is really popular
38:53 in the Republican conference if you talk
38:55 to them off the Record is it allows any
38:58 State Attorney General to sue the
39:01 federal government for a uh for Visa
39:04 programs if it imposes more than $100 of
39:07 cost on their state and Steve Bannon and
39:10 other people on the right are saying
39:11 this is the vehicle they're going to use
39:13 to shut down the H1B program uh any kind
39:16 of uh humanitarian parole and other
39:18 types of temporary work programs because
39:20 you can definitely show $100 of cost uh
39:23 you know somebody goes on an H1B to
39:25 estate and they enroll their kids in
39:26 public schools so there's going to be
39:28 this sort of
39:29 um it is a very fascinating way to
39:32 empower states to basically some of them
39:34 to try to shut down the legal
39:35 immigration system uh Alex I know you've
39:38 uh done work on this but how do how do
39:40 you respond to people who are outraged
39:43 that illegal immigrants you know are not
39:46 just committing crimes but are killing
39:48 people um you know what what is a good
39:51 libertarian response to that so I say
39:55 you should punish the people who commit
39:57 the crime crimes who commit uh you
39:59 should not punish people who have the
40:01 same legal status who didn't commit the
40:03 crimes in the same way that uh I would
40:07 hope that if somebody in like in my
40:09 hometown of hearnen somebody committed a
40:10 murder not long ago was a big Scandal a
40:12 big story um I'm glad they punished the
40:15 murderer and not uh the neighbors who
40:17 come from the same state uh who happen
40:19 to have the same uh immigration status
40:22 as that individual so I think you
40:24 punished a person who did it and then
40:25 there's an empirical argument uh illegal
40:27 immigrants are less likely to commit
40:29 crimes and native born Americans to be
40:30 incarcerated for them uh to commit them
40:33 according to the almost all the EV the
40:36 really good evidence that we have and so
40:39 if you're using crime committed by
40:42 subpopulation that doesn't commit as
40:44 much crime and you're using that as an
40:46 argument for mass deportations that is
40:48 an ineffective anti-me policy that
40:50 you're wasting resources on that you
40:52 should be going against act actual
40:54 criminals people who violate other
40:55 people's rights oh if I say something on
40:57 that and so once I actually was invited
41:00 to be the one pro-immigration person at
41:02 the writer Workshop which is basically
41:04 the giant umbrella organization of all
41:06 the anti-immigration groups in America
41:09 and um later that afternoon there was a
41:12 panel of people whose relatives have
41:13 been murdered by illegal immigrants and
41:16 I was not on that panel but I think so
41:18 what would you say to the people on that
41:19 panel and I think the honest thing is to
41:21 say I wouldn't say anything to the
41:22 people on that panel someone who
41:24 actually went through that horrible
41:25 situation like best to go like say like
41:28 I'm just not even going to touch that
41:30 but if you were talking to someone else
41:31 who was not really personally affected
41:33 say look I understand why you're doing
41:35 this but intellectually this is not any
41:37 better than saying let's have a panel of
41:38 everyone murdered by a Jew everyone
41:40 murdered by an Albanian in order to go
41:42 and Stoke Miss misanthropy against that
41:45 group like logically it does not it does
41:47 not in any way differ except that this
41:50 is a group that people are already dis
41:52 already
41:53 dislike I'm amazed they didn't have you
41:55 on that panel
41:58 uh I think I would have refused but uh
42:00 least at least ask for more money let's
42:03 uh let's talk about cultural arguments
42:05 Brian you touched on this earlier um you
42:07 know a lot of people who are concerned
42:11 about immigration will say you know what
42:13 we have led so many people in where at
42:16 uh the percentage of the foreign born
42:18 population is approaching the Peaks that
42:20 it saw in the early teens of the 20th
42:23 century or previous Peaks and people are
42:26 saying you know we need a time out we've
42:28 uh we had a timeout you know starting in
42:30 the 20s through the 60s or really the uh
42:34 late 70s um and we we you know we need
42:37 to stop the influx of different types of
42:40 people with different types of
42:42 Lifestyles and different types of ways
42:44 of being in the world uh what you know
42:47 what is wrong with that
42:49 argument I mean there's so many
42:50 different ways you could start but let
42:52 me start with this one uh my dad is 86
42:55 you think he likes modern American
42:56 culture
42:58 all right since he was born the culture
43:00 not of not of immigrants but of native
43:02 born Americans has dramatically changed
43:04 the point where he is horrified just to
43:06 go and turn on his television all right
43:09 now the question is look hm so how
43:12 horrible was it really right now those
43:14 of us who are younger say well I guess
43:16 there's some things are better some
43:17 things are worse I don't see the culture
43:19 is worse overall probably it's actually
43:20 bit better all right that would I think
43:22 be at least a a more reasonable attitude
43:24 to take about it but then here's
43:26 something that that that you can can
43:27 also say well who do you feel culturally
43:29 closer to my dad or an immigrant of your
43:32 own generation like like almost everyone
43:35 says yeah of course I feel a lot closer
43:36 to immigrants from my own generations to
43:39 a guy who's 86 years old he's just
43:41 living in a totally different era it's
43:43 like yeah and yet we still have a highly
43:46 functional Society we have the greatest
43:48 economy that's ever existed despite all
43:50 this cultural change it seems like our
43:52 system is actually very robust I have an
43:54 essay that's called Western Civ as a
43:56 hearty weed
43:57 uh this our civilization actually is
44:00 amazingly flexible amazingly good at
44:01 adapting and this is what makes it so
44:05 terrifying to the enemies of Western
44:07 culture around the world in Iran the
44:09 Ayatollah had a great word West
44:11 toxification this is what the West is
44:13 doing they're sending their Western
44:15 poison into Iran and so we need to keep
44:17 it out in order to save our country and
44:19 our culture and this is one where it's
44:21 like people can be living in Iran and
44:23 yet they feel bombarded by our culture
44:26 right and yet who going pick that who's
44:28 going to pick that weed it's going to be
44:29 an immigrant too right so it's well I
44:33 mean what's really striking is if you
44:34 can't actually keep people in Iran from
44:37 westernizing what are the odds you can
44:39 keep Iranian immigrants from that that
44:41 actually move to the west from
44:42 westernizing we've got Alex nasta here
44:45 uh and his dad uh director Cy Cyrus
44:47 nasta my grandparents were the
44:49 immigrants but so you're your dad was
44:51 actually born here yes okay uh under the
44:53 new rules by the way um that uh Trump
44:57 put into a it's actually unclear whether
44:58 he would be an American citizen but he
45:00 was born here now yes are you uh I hope
45:03 you're taunting him with that very much
45:05 so and I told him that I'm going to call
45:06 Ice on him uh but but but the but the
45:10 thing is like just like I I think
45:12 Brian's right you know when people get
45:13 older I think they find more things in
45:15 American culture or any culture they
45:16 grow up in to complain about but next
45:19 time you see this I mean you all look
45:20 pretty young in here uh but next time
45:23 very goodl looking well some of us uh
45:26 next time no nordics no nordics need a
45:28 plot yeah next time you think of
45:30 something in American culture that you
45:32 don't like um think about was this a
45:34 foreign import or is this something
45:36 those crazy kids came up with and uh I
45:39 haven't found one that's not uh foreign
45:41 import it's always those crazy kids yeah
45:44 the good the good culture changes
45:45 starting with Cuisine oh yeah spicy
45:48 food do you um do either of you have
45:52 concerns about a common culture uh and
45:55 whether it's driven by immigration or
45:58 internal migration or just technology do
46:01 you are you overly concerned that um you
46:04 know people will uh Benchmark it going
46:07 back depending on how old they are or
46:09 what they're interested in but things
46:11 were better uh in the early days of the
46:14 internet uh things were better when we
46:16 had three TV channels and a couple of
46:18 source trusted sources of news uh you
46:21 know when we all read the same books
46:23 things like that do those critiques or
46:26 do those worries um speak to you at all
46:29 you I say the best case scenario is if
46:30 we have a common awesome culture that's
46:33 the best case scenario on the other hand
46:35 we could have a common crummy culture
46:37 which is what we had when you're talking
46:38 about when we had three channels of
46:40 television and your trusted news sources
46:42 that did not deserve to be trusted but
46:44 nevertheless were right and see
46:47 especially of course if you have a
46:48 minority view the idea that you want a
46:49 common culture well who do you think is
46:51 going to get
46:52 assimilated right uh your it's not going
46:54 to be the rest of society starts being
46:56 like you it's that you're under pressure
46:58 to start being like them so I'd say
47:01 given the given the problems in
47:03 mainstream culture it's better that it's
47:05 not common at least at least there's
47:07 some dissent so you know during Co like
47:10 on the one hand you've got this very
47:12 popular view of lockdowns but on the
47:14 other hand there's a lot of dissent much
47:15 better that it wasn't I think the best
47:17 thing would have been if there's a
47:18 common culture saying no lockdowns but
47:20 if you're not going to get that it's
47:22 better to have polarization so at least
47:24 there's some placees in the US you can
47:25 go to be free oh is there any reason to
47:28 believe that
47:29 assimilation and it would be worthy uh
47:31 worth defining that term is it happening
47:34 at a different rate than it happened in
47:36 the early part of the 20th century or at
47:38 other points of high immigration in
47:41 United States history so there's been
47:42 some good work on this uh Jake bigor and
47:44 others have tried to take a look at this
47:46 uh over time and by assimilation he
47:49 basically means whether the immigrants
47:50 or their kids are similar to longer
47:53 settled Americans along measurements of
47:55 like uh education income family size
47:58 religiosity civic participation and some
48:01 other metrics of opinion and he finds
48:04 that it's going at about the same Pace
48:06 as 100 years ago Mexicans are pretty
48:08 similar to Italians in terms of their
48:11 pace of assimilation along a lot of
48:13 these metrics one of the big ways that
48:15 people assimilate is through
48:16 intermarriage called assimilation at the
48:18 altar um that's one of the major reasons
48:21 why you have like large descendants of
48:23 Hispanic immigrants in the United States
48:25 who don't even identify as Hispanic on
48:27 surveys so they actually are so well
48:29 Blended in and so successful that they
48:31 just identify as white because they've
48:34 you know one of their parents uh is
48:36 white or one of their grandparents is so
48:37 no that the trends are pretty positive
48:39 and they didn't improve when the borders
48:41 were closed in the 2030s and 40s the
48:44 pace of assimilation for Italians was
48:46 basically unchanged even when the
48:48 borders were closed what's true is when
48:50 you close off immigration you don't have
48:52 that stock of new immigrants so it
48:54 probably seems like oh assimilation
48:56 increasing but it's not increasing at a
48:59 different rate um than anybody it I mean
49:02 this was the problem with uh
49:04 particularly in the90s in Southern
49:05 California where there was a constant
49:07 flow mostly from Mexico of new Spanish
49:09 speakers so it seemed as if nobody was
49:12 learning English but if you actually
49:14 tracked uh Generations by the third
49:17 generation essentially nobody spoke the
49:20 mother tongue uh predominant I mean the
49:22 Spanish lasts a little longer uh into
49:24 the third generation a lot of cases but
49:26 what's like I grew up in Southern
49:27 California not that they don't know
49:29 English but they retain Spanish it's
49:31 100% English fluency but then you know
49:33 they say they speak Spanish like my
49:35 father says he speaks farsy and he
49:36 speaks it with a Wisconsin accent like
49:38 he's five years old like yeah right it's
49:40 like he he jibber jabber jibber jabber
49:42 tater tots like it's like the way that
49:44 he talks it's hilarious but uh you know
49:46 when I was a kid growing up in Southern
49:47 California most of the people I knew who
49:49 were Hispanic uh spoke with an accent I
49:52 go back now and they all have this Nas
49:54 accent like I do um they sound like uh
49:57 they're native born I mean they are
49:59 native born Americans they sound like me
50:00 and Brian yeah my favorite debate on
50:03 this was against marker Coran head of
50:05 Center for immigration studies probably
50:07 the leading anti-immigration think tank
50:09 in the world and he had this bizarre
50:11 statement which he then clarified he
50:13 said look immigration is like donuts
50:16 immigration is like donuts what does
50:17 that mean well delicious yes not his
50:20 word he says look when you're when when
50:22 you're when you're young you can stuff
50:23 your face with donuts eat all you want
50:26 and you're fine you don't get fat but
50:27 once you're old if you keep eating that
50:29 way you're going to be a big fat
50:30 disgusting Pig he says and that's how
50:32 immigration is for countries a young
50:34 country can stuff its face with
50:35 immigrants it's all fine but a mature
50:37 country can't and I'm like all right
50:39 that's an an analogy but like what are
50:42 the world are you talking about and then
50:44 he said something much more thoughtful
50:46 he said well look um back in the 19th
50:49 century when an immigrant came to the US
50:51 they had to assimilate because the costs
50:54 of communication and transportation were
50:56 so high due to to to the technology of
50:57 the time that they basically were never
50:59 going to go back were barely in contact
51:01 with the people from The Home Country so
51:03 they had to assimilate back then whereas
51:05 now you can move here and physically and
51:08 yet psychologically remain a citizen of
51:10 your home country I've got a colleague
51:12 whose wife is from Taiwan and she
51:13 basically just lives in Taiwan in
51:15 Virginia she just watches Taiwanese
51:17 television talks to relatives in Taiwan
51:18 she's not assimilating at all all right
51:20 so so all right there's something in
51:22 what you're saying Mark but you are
51:24 forgetting that in the same way
51:26 transportation and communication
51:27 Technologies allow someone here to not
51:29 assimilate they also allow someone who
51:32 isn't here to assimilate in 1900 there
51:35 were not many Sicilians speaking fluent
51:37 English who were up to up to date on
51:38 Modern American culture at the time
51:40 because the communication and
51:41 transportation was so expensive whereas
51:43 now the world is full of people who are
51:45 what my student Nathaniel Smith calls
51:48 pre- assimilated they've never been in
51:50 the west but they're very Western I was
51:53 just in India and I met hundreds of pre-
51:55 assimilated people people whose English
51:57 is fluent people who know more about
52:00 America than about their own country
52:02 they are totally ready to hit the ground
52:03 running in a way that basically no one
52:05 in India would have been 100 years ago
52:08 so yeah it makes sense that we're not
52:09 seeing much change overall because we
52:11 got two conflicting forces and and in
52:15 fact right now we've got like a billion
52:16 people who are on earth who are ready to
52:18 be Americans without any further Ado
52:20 they already are in their own minds how
52:24 um let's say a billion people want to
52:26 move here uh which strikes me as high uh
52:29 or or rather the number who would take
52:32 the next step uh you know how many
52:35 people do you think uh the us could
52:39 assimilate or not assimilate but just
52:41 you know take it over the course of a
52:44 century I think we could get let's say
52:46 over the course of five years five years
52:48 so in five years I think we would get 20
52:49 to 30 million right there's just a lot
52:52 of people who currently have friends and
52:54 relatives here and who they could sleep
52:55 on their couch these are the people who
52:57 pretty much already have their bags
52:58 packed as soon as they get the green
53:00 light they'll be here uh so of course
53:02 that also solves a lot of other problems
53:04 well who's going to take care of them
53:05 yeah it's going to be their friends and
53:06 relatives um but yeah like you know
53:09 something just to understand like how
53:11 high the potential is the US population
53:13 has multiplied about hundred times since
53:16 the founding of the country a hundred
53:18 times if you would told people that like
53:20 in 1789 we can have a hundred times as
53:23 many people in this country I think they
53:25 just would have thought you were crazy I
53:27 it sounds crazy but it happened same
53:29 thing United Arab Emirates their
53:31 population is multiplied by a factor of
53:33 34 in 50 years it really has that's fact
53:38 that's not speculation and is it a
53:40 disaster it's like no it is awesome go
53:43 there don't go there when it's 110
53:45 degrees but go there and just look this
53:47 is not Theory this is what is actually
53:50 possible to unlock by moving human
53:53 talent to a place where it's
53:55 productive Alex
53:57 um to wrap up what what are you uh most
54:00 worried about over the next four years
54:03 um and what do you you know what is
54:05 something positive that you think will
54:07 um emerge from kind of the current
54:10 turmoil over immigration I am most
54:13 worried about uh legal changes that
54:16 reduce legal immigration to the United
54:18 States changes in statutes new bills
54:20 being passed because as Brian said
54:22 earlier it's very difficult to undo a
54:24 law once you put it into effect
54:27 I think if they reduce the number of
54:28 green cards that would be a um disaster
54:32 most of the the actions that Trump has
54:33 taken so far uh could be undone by the
54:36 next president if they wanted to laws
54:38 passed by Congress not so much so what
54:40 I'm most worried about is that they'll
54:43 reduce um they'll they'll reduce it and
54:45 then it'll be very difficult to get it
54:47 back do you see anything positive coming
54:49 out of uh this kind of renewed
54:52 antagonism towards immigration I think
54:55 that we we could see some reductions in
55:00 immigrant access to welfare benefits I
55:02 guess I have to put something positive
55:05 on it that that could be the most
55:06 positive thing that we see listen I mean
55:08 Donald Trump ran both times on a
55:10 platform to reduce legal immigration he
55:13 ran on that he said it multiple times
55:15 people try to fool you and gas light you
55:17 into saying he's against just illegal
55:19 immigration it's not true um so I think
55:22 that uh he means it he did it last time
55:24 he's going to do it again uh Brian what
55:26 about you what do what do you worry the
55:28 most about over the next uh you know
55:31 four years yeah so My worry is the same
55:32 as Alex I would say that the probability
55:35 of something actually going through
55:37 remembering how partisan it is and how
55:39 polarized the US is I would only give
55:41 that like 15 20% so ultimately I you
55:44 know it's it's a concern it's not one
55:46 that seems terrible and I'd also give
55:48 five or 10% that Doge and Elon do
55:51 something awesome like like people have
55:54 have underestimated that guy a bunch of
55:56 times and yes there's people saying
55:58 maybe he's totally evil and terrible
56:00 like it's possible but all right like I
56:03 don't know him that well but on the
56:05 other hand he's also done some great
56:06 things and it's just so weird and
56:08 chaotic and like just the things that
56:10 are happening just the way like Trump
56:11 talks about Greenland and I'm like what
56:13 the hell like and then it's like one
56:15 time no he's talking about it all the
56:16 time like like just like the variance of
56:19 what can occur maybe what we could do we
56:21 could do is is letting greenlands and we
56:24 say okay only open borders for Greenland
56:26 yeah and we use that as a bridge I don't
56:28 know it's pretty they'll go to emirat
56:32 they will go to Greenland they totally
56:34 would no all right we're going to end uh
56:37 the conversation here uh we've been
56:39 talking with Alex naso of the KO
56:41 Institute and Brian klin of George Mason
56:44 about the libertarian case for more
56:46 immigration gentlemen thank you thank
56:48 you thank you
56:51 [Applause]
56:52 [Music]
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