YouTube Transcript:
Boot Camp Day 19: How to Read News Data

all right what's good welcome to boot
camp
um I'm just gonna stop saying the days
because I don't know where we're at I
think we're getting close to uh three
weeks so hopefully you guys have been
powering through kind of crazy I've been
uploading every single day for three
weeks seems Seems insane there's been
some days where we've literally uploaded
two videos a day
um it's really motivating I want to keep
it up uh we're almost a month into this
and we're we're you know we're working
we're working slow and steady all right
um you know we're we're getting to where
we need to be we're slowly you know
we're almost done with the building
blocks we're almost getting into
strategy probably by the end of the
month we'll be done
um we'll be done with the building
blocks and we'll have the strategy
locked down
um but today is not about trading today
it's about kind of like psychology but
or it's sort of about trading um but
since we had CPI news data today I
figured today
um is one of the best days for us to
talk about news in the market and you
know what types of news you shouldn't
trade
um why you should be patient with news
um and I was actually just on a a zoom
call with my Discord and it was it
actually made me rage
um seeing how many people
traded during CPI and before CPI and
wanted to trade after CPI so I figured
let's make this the video for today
um
so let's get right into it let's talk
about news in the market okay so first
of all this is going to be who knows how
long but I'm going to try and cover
everything about news
um possible in this video so hopefully
we don't have to recover it again and
I'm trying going to try and drill this
into your guys's skull
um about the [ __ ] so
first of all where do I get my news from
it is called Forex Factory okay so I
literally just go forexfactory.com and
when you come on here
initially it'll look like this
let's put all these things on here
it'll look like this and this is this is
a lot to take in okay so the way that I
like to do it is
I know that these yellow folders these
are just random stupid news events that
happen day in and day out that don't
really affect the marketing that's why
they're yellow
okay so I get rid of those I leave the
gray folders because those announced
like bank holidays and days where there
aren't trading days so I get rid of the
yellow folders and then I also get rid
of all the currencies that I don't trade
so do I trade AUD USD or any AUD pair no
do I trade any Canadian dollar pair nope
do I trade any
um CHF pair no do I trade any uh Chinese
yen pair no do I trade any European pair
nope do I trade a GBP a Great British
pound pair yes I do I trade GBP USD and
GBP JPY cool do I trade a JPY pair yes I
trade GBP JPY cool do I trade NCD no I
do not do I trade a USD pair yes I trade
GBP USD I trade gold and then I also
trade the S P 500 your S P 500 news
events will be covered by USD okay
and then from there I hit apply filter
and boom much prettier knocks it down to
what we need to focus on okay as you can
see it labels what currencies the news
the news is for right in here
okay so from there right we we filtered
it down okay now let's talk about what
news we should try and avoid most of the
time if there is a red news folder no
matter what I will always always always
wait until the news comes out which you
can see what time it comes out right
here and the nice thing about this is it
um
it gets set up to like it automatically
like connects to whatever time zone
you're on so this it'll say it in your
time zone
um
so today we had CPI as you can see red
folder red folder red folder we also
have two red folders on GBP
um overall just a terrible probability
day to trade right we have three red
folders We Know That CPI news data
causes havoc in the market right if we
if we look we can see like even on GJ
oops if we go into the lower time frames
we can see how large these Wicks are
like boom this is right when CPI came
out massive Wick let's look at gold
right this is during CPI massive Wick
math like this is not price action that
you are able to trade it is unprobable
price action
so why don't we why do we want to wait
until afternoons on red folder days
because news is going to drastically
affect the market and
the nice thing about this is let's say
we only have one red folder and I'm okay
with trading on red folder days
it just depends on which ones okay so
let's say we have a red folder day and
we see the market and we wait for news
to come out and news comes out
we let price develop and news doesn't
affect the market that much
then I will be okay Trading right if you
news
doesn't affect the market for like after
like 15 or 20 minutes after it comes out
so at like 8 45 or like at 8 50
if news didn't affect the market I would
have been okay to trade but knowing CPI
CPI always affects the market
Okay so
that's that's my my kind of overall rule
with news red and orange folders
always wait for news to come out
let price develop
see if it drastically affected the
market you know with large Wicks large
moves okay and if it does that don't
trade
okay do not trade and if it doesn't
okay you can potentially look for a
trade but still be playing on that
defensive side still be playing with
that patience in mind knowing that hey
today it will probably be a lower
probability day I should probably risk
less I should probably reduce my risk I
should probably be looking to not trade
unless Market gives me a great
opportunity
and most the time it won't give you a
great opportunity
so de-risk yourself from the market when
there's big news
okay there's a couple news events that I
always avoid you guys should write these
down CPI PPI fomc
and NFP
those four CPI
which happened today
PPI which is happening tomorrow
fomc which is also happening tomorrow
and then NFP non-farm payroll anything
that says non-farm non-farm employment
non-farm payroll nope no go okay those
four I will not I do not trade
whatsoever
okay so I won't be trading tomorrow
the following day this day
I don't want to trade
I I probably won't trade on Thursday
either because look we have one red
folder two red folder three red folder
four red folder orange folder another
orange folder a [ __ ] red folder and
then an orange folder okay and and all
of these are for USD so if anything I'll
probably only be looking at like GJ
on Thursday
right because all of these are USC Pairs
and all the other all the trade all the
pairs that I trade are USC besides JPY
okay and again I'll look at the market
after 8 30 right and see how price
develops after all this news comes out
and I'll make a decision right because
this isn't CPI this isn't PPI this is an
fomc and this isn't non-farm payroll
however
this is a lot of red folders so low
probability d-risk see what happens in
the market if it makes a big move we're
done
okay on Friday this is a perfect example
of when I would trade and how I would
trade news we have news that comes out
30 minutes into Market open Market opens
at 9 30 for me boom news comes out at
10. what am I going to do I'm going to
sit on my hands [ __ ] tuck that [ __ ]
under my ass and I will not trade until
10 a.m hits
and I'm and I still won't trade until
like 10 30 hits because we need price to
develop and we need to see what happens
with consumer sentiment and even then
even then
will I be you know actively trying to
make a lot of money no I definitely
won't why because this entire week is
flooded with news this entire week has
so much news
okay so it's best to sit on your hands
don't trade in unprobable conditions be
patient
remember this is what we talked about be
patient look for a reason not to trade
not a reason to trade okay and it will
benefit you
all right so now we know what news what
news events to avoid and now we know
that we should wait if we do want want
to trade news or if we're looking to
potentially take a trade and we know
that there is news that day and it isn't
one of those four events we wait for
news to come out we wait to see the data
and we'll talk about how to read the
news data right now
um and then we wait for like you know 15
20 30 minutes okay let price develop
and then we can look to take a trade
cool cool
now let's talk about how to read news
data
so Forex factory makes this [ __ ] super
easy so the nice thing about this we see
CPI month-to-month CPI year to year core
CPI month to month okay as you can see
right here we have the forecast which is
what people in the news is predicting
right like CNN Fox News whatever this is
what Forex Factory is predicting the
news will be right this is what everyone
is predicting
right and these numbers are the actual
news data that ends up coming out
okay so when we see these numbers and
they're different than the forecast and
they're different than what people are
expecting we can open up this little
folder you just click the little folder
and it brings you a bunch of data okay
we can see where it's coming from Bureau
of Labor Statistics no one gives a [ __ ]
okay measures measures what is this
talking about change in the in the price
of goods and services purchased by
people so when you go to the grocery
store what do you buy right this is
pretty much what it's measuring
okay
this is the only thing that I care about
the usual effect right because this will
tell you
the news bias and that doesn't mean that
should be your buys for the day that's
just telling you what the news came out
as
so what was the forecast 0.2 and also
before the news comes out this actual
spot is blank okay this is because news
already came out right if we go and look
at tomorrow
right we see that as blank and if we
click on this
right we don't we don't know what the
news data is yet
okay but we have this one
so we see what is the usual effect if
the if
the actual
right it literally gives it to you if
actual
is greater
is greater than
the forecast
then it is good for the currency
hold on though
okay
this is where it gets tricky
some of you guys might you know needs to
take some time to understand this for me
it makes complete sense but some of you
guys might take some time
good for the currency what does that
mean does that mean good for the S P 500
no no
it does not mean good for the S P 500 is
the S P 500 the U.S currency
no
the S P 500 is not the currency bruh
what is the currency the dollar the dxy
and what do we know about the dxy when
the dxy goes up anything against the the
dollar goes down so gold where's gu g u
the s p
will follow down so when it's good for
the currency when when that means good
for the dollar that means bad for SPX
bad for gold bad for GU bad for EU bad
for AUD USD bad for [ __ ] anything
against you the US dollar
good for the US dollar means bad for
anything against it that even goes for
crypto
BTC slash USD anything XXX slash USD bad
SPX
bad
good for the dollar bad for SPX
hopefully that that gets it across
okay so when we see this
greater than forecast is good for
currency it was less than forecasts okay
all right
it was less than less than forecasts
okay we see the dxy rally bad for
[ __ ]
um we see the [ __ ] s p fall okay if
we go on this same [ __ ] greater than
forecasts good for currency
okay
cool okay and that doesn't mean that the
chart is going to follow
right because we can see we can see
today
right greater than forecast good for
currency it was less in the forecast but
what happened to dxy
it's [ __ ] pumping right right here
this candle is when the news came out
this is all that news did right we say
uh oh bad for bad for
um sorry bad for the currency because
the forecast because the forecast was
actually less because sorry the actual
was actually less than the forecast we
dropped down but then what did dxy do
rallies
a rally that's why we can't necessarily
trust news bias
because price action is is superior
that's why we have to wait for news to
come out
okay right we see that it was less than
forecasts
right so that means it would be bad for
the currency we see dxy right when news
comes out with this candle it dumps
right bad for currency boom false what
happened to the S P 500 [ __ ] rallied
right where where did it come out with
news right here look boom rallies high
high high
okay but that doesn't necessarily
show you guys where Market wants to go
for the day
right where did Mark where did market
end up going dollar ended up rallying
the dollar ended up eating up this news
drop
so that's why we need to wait for news
okay
so good for currency bad for the S P 500
okay same thing
with these GBP stuff okay however we
need to understand right understand your
currency pairs if it is xXx slash USD
right and we have something that is good
for the US dollar whatever that pair is
it will go down because it's against the
US dollar right so if it's the Great
British pound against the US dollar and
the US dollar benefits
then what does that mean that means the
pound against the dollar will fall
because the US dollar is going to be
stronger than the pound
can you get like are we comprehending
are we good with that
write that down rewind that watch it
again because like sometimes
I don't know what it is about reading
news but some people like I try and
explain this as simple as possible but
some people still don't understand it
okay so that's against the US dollar now
hold on this is where
you might start bugging out really focus
okay
what about
GBP slash XXX right when there's news
for Great British pound right look at
how these pairs are set up right if we
drag this over
what does this say GBP JPY that means
right literally Great British pound
against the Yen so for the news for
Great British pound
when we see okay less than forecasts is
good for currency we had less than
forecasts that means it's good for
currency that means if it's good for the
pound then anything pound against XXX
will go up
it's different than against the US
dollar
right so if we see if we have news for
GBP
right this one for example less than
forecasts good for currency good for the
Great British pound if it's the pound
against the dollar in the pound
gets good news good for that currency
then that pair is going to go up
right but if it's
whatever currency against the US dollar
right it depends on what side of the
parentheses uh what side of the slash it
is
right
pound against the dollar
right
versus
right yeah like pound against the dollar
versus like USD JPY
okay would be different
for this right because that's USD
against the yen
are we understanding that we have to
understand what side of the slash we are
on we have to we have to understand that
These Guys these we are literally
comparing two currencies it's a fraction
so the pound is on top USD is on the
bottom
right so if we get good news for what's
on top
that means up up if we get bad news for
[ __ ] that's on the bottom that means up
up if we get good news for what's on the
bottom that means down down if we get
bad news for what's on top that means
down down
is that making sense
ready we'll literally write this down
does that make sense
and then we'll do a contrasting one like
USC JPY
that makes sense
okay
so whatever is on top whatever's on top
it's positive correlation whatever's on
bottom it's just inversed okay so if
it's good for currency on whatever is on
the back end of the Slash
it's inverse okay so if we get good for
currency on the US dollar price is going
to go down if we get bad for currency on
the US dollar price is going to go up
versus here on uh on if USC's on the on
the other side if we get USC good for
currency price is going to go up if we
get USC battery Currency Price goes down
screenshot this put this in your notes
do whatever you have to do
that's how we find our news bias is new
is news bias and all be all no it just
helps us understand [ __ ] news data
okay
cool we got it we locked in awesome
that's how you read news
and that's how you should trade news
right wait for Newsday to come out if
it's CPI PPI fomc or NFP just call it
quits bro sleep in
live to trade another day don't lose
your money you're trading in
unprobleable conditions odds are you're
not profitable already so that means you
have a below a 50 chance to win the
trade in the first place because you're
not profitable okay
along with news coming out
gives you a lower probability of winning
because you don't know how to trade and
you have an unprobable an unprobable of
news event coming out into the market
terrible decision to trade
and you wonder why you guys lose money
in these markets
literally had this discussion with my
Discord this morning I literally had a
zoom call with my Discord telling them
literally I did a zoom call
I told them I was going to trade
and I did a zoom call just so I could
tell them not to trade
trying to save you all bread man
hopefully so hopefully this video helped
you understand news within the market
hopefully you guys understand how to
read news within the market with this
stuff now and hopefully you guys can set
up your Forex Factory and make sure you
guys are checking this every single
morning before you guys trade because
you don't want to get caught taking a
trade and the next thing you know news
comes out five minutes later it stops
you out makes you lose a bunch of money
cool cool with that being said you guys
now know how to read news and I know how
to find a news bias you now know what
news not to trade I'll catch you guys
tomorrow