This content introduces and advocates for "positive EV" (Expected Value) betting as a superior strategy to traditional arbitrage betting, demonstrating how it can lead to significantly higher long-term profits by exploiting bookmaker mispriced odds and promotions.
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it's now one year since I was first
introduced to the wonders of Arbitrage
bedding and I made my first $8,000 in
profit and since then I've tried tested
and developed my own optimal betting
strategy which I've now used to make
over $440,000 in profit and Counting
this is a strategy that I call positive
EV or plus EV betting and it's a much
better version of Arbitrage it's simpler
to calculate mathematically it's less
time consuming and in the long term you
can expect to make a lot more money make
sure you guys watch the end of the video
where I'll be going through a real life
example of an actual plus EV and
Arbitrage bet that I can place on
bookies as many people have been asking
for this so what is plus EV betting EV
stands for expected value and is a term
commonly used in the finance industry by
investment analysts quantitative Traders
and all the Wolves of Wall Street it
comes from probability Theory and in
short represents how much you can expect
to make while disregarding any risk in
sports betting this is easy to calculate
it's the sum of all the products of the
payoff multiplied by the probability of
that event for example in a soccer game
between Norwich and man united the
bookie is offering 1.42 on man united to
win this means the payoffs are you make
42 cents profit if Man United win and
lose $1 if man united loses or the game
ends in a draw the EV or expected value
is therefore the probability Man United win
win
multiplied by 42 plus the probability of
the game drawing or losing for Man
United multiplied by -1 for more
information on how you can get these
probabilities you can check out my
previous sports betting video which I'll
link above and in that video I talked
about how you can get the fair odds and
fair probabilities of events happening
by looking at a betting exchange or a
very sharp bookmaker if you do the EV
calculations for most of the bets that
bookies are offering you you will most
likely find that it is negative and this
negative number represents how much The
Bookies are ripping you off by and how
much you can expect to lose in the long
term however occasionally there are plus
EV opportunities positive EV betting
relies on exploiting bookmakers
mispriced odds which they will make
mistakes occasionally and also some of
their promotional offers which can turn
your expected value to become positive
this can come in the form of either
higher boosted odds or partial refunds
on a bet that you don't win in the hope
of luring a new customer into becoming
one of their great customers which is
the degenerate gamblers being a plus EV
better means taking only the bets that
are positive EV from your mathematical
calculations and ignoring all other bets
so let's take a look at a hypothetic
example to have a better understanding
of positive EV betting and also compare
it to Arbitrage and from there you can
see that Arbitrage betting is truly
inferior to positive EV betting so in
our coin TOS example we have a fair coin
coin which means it has a 50% chance of
heads and a 50% chance of tails in this
case let's assume there's a mispricing
in the odds there's odds of four for
heads and odds of 1.8 for
Tails we have $3 to bet across either
heads or
tails let's see how our Arbitrage better
will go through about this what they
will do is first for the first bet bet
$1 on heads at four odds the second bet
is $2 on tails at the 1.8
odds and therefore if it's heads they
win $3 on their first bet and lose $2 on
their second bet which means they make
$1 in overall profit similarly if it's
taals they lose their Dollar on the
first bet and win $160 on their second
bet giving them an overall profit of 60
what about for the plus EV better they
see the odds of four is positive EV or
positive expected value whereas the odds
of 1.8 for tails is negative EV as the
odds are not the fair odds or higher of
two we again have $3 to bet let's see
what the plus EV better would do in this
case what they would do is BET all their
money the $3 all on heads at four odds
since that is the positive EV bet and
completely ignore the other bet so in
the outcome that it is heads they win $9
on their first bet and their only bet so
they get $9 in overall profit if it was
taals then they would be unlucky and
lose $3 on on their bet and incur a $3
overall loss but let's take a look at
what the expected value is the EV is
calculated by the probability multiplied
by the payoffs which is 50% chance of
landing on heads multiplied by $9 plus
50% chance of land on taals multiplied by
by
-3 this gives us $450 -150 which means
our expected value is $3 for this bet
now what about the Arbitrage better this
was their bet $1 on headset four $2 on
taals at 1.8 which means they get $1
overall profit if it is heads and 60
cents overall profit if it is Tails this
means that EV or expected value is 50% *
1 + 50% * 0.6 which are both positive
numbers but in the end the EV is only 80
cents significantly less than if it was
for the plus EV better so what are the
advantes and disadvantages we can see
from this example well for Arbitrage the
profit is risk-free no matter what
outcome it resulted in he would make a
profit but the profit is smaller in the
long term and for plus EV you do have
that risk of losing $3 in that bet but
in the long term your expected profit is
going to be much higher if you guys
didn't understand how I did the
calculations the first time I would
highly recommend you check out again the
previous Sports wedding video where I
explain how to do mathematical
probability payoff calculations and then
rewatch this coint TOS example as things
will only get more and more complex from
here so so hopefully from that example
you can kind of see why I stopped doing
Arbitrage betting and then shifted
towards a positive EV betting style
there's a few reasons for this which
I'll go over now Arbitrage betting is
essentially placing two bets one which
is the positive EV bet which is the same
one that is being placed by the positive
EV better and the second bet is a hedge
bet which is used only to reduce the
risk of the first bet and often times
the second bet or the Hedge bet is
negative EV overall the sum of the EV or
expected value is still positive which
hence you can get an Arbitrage
opportunity out of it and guarantee a
profit but it's likely going to be
significantly less than if you just took
the positive EV bet and this will mean
we are expecting to make less money in
the long run even though we are still
making money just not as much as
positive EV also since we are now
placing two bets instead of the one
which the positive EV bet is only
required to place this kind of tends to
over complicate things and now you have
to work out calculations of how much to
bet which places to bet on for two bets
instead of one and doubling the time and
doubling the complexity J is somewhat of
an advantage that Arbitrage has over
positive EV is by the term itself
Arbitrage is a risk-free way of making
money which is probably what is
appealing to most people no matter the
outcome like in the coint TOs example
you can see you can make money and there
is a lot of more risk when it comes to
positive EV betting in the short term
only for the positive EV better there's
a 50% chance they'll lose money in the
coint TOs example but I would argue that
this risk reduction is pretty
insignificant especially when it comes
to playing the long game and betting
frequently diversification and the law
of large numbers state that as the
number of bets I place approaches a
large number the presence of luck
completely Fades and my profit or loss
will eventually converge to the point
that is represented purely by the sum of
the expected value or EV of all the all
the bets I've placed for the coin toss
example yes if I place the bets once and
only flip the coin once then yes I do
have a 50% chance which is quite a large
chance of losing money but imagine I
made the coin toss and did the same bets
on a thousand different coin tops events
statistically and you don't need to
worry about how I did this exactly but
using binomial probability you can see
that 99.9% of the time there's going to
be at least 450 heads or 450 times that
the fa that the outcome is in my favor
out of 1,000 so 45% of the time so in
this case where there are at least 450
heads which there's a 99.9% chance of
statistically our Arbitrage better won't
actually make that much profit there
would can expect to make 450 * 1 + 550 *
60 which means they make an overall
profit of
$780 for a plus EV better when they at
least 450 heads they can actually make a
substantial amount of profit they can
expect to make $9 * by 450 + $550 * the
$3 that they lose each time they it's
not heads which means they have an
overall profit of
$2,400 significantly greater than that
of our Arbitrage better and this is the
kind of the worst case scenario where
there's only 450 heads if there were 500
heads or more the profit would be even
more bit significant this shows that
even with terrible luck it no longer
plays a huge difference when you can
exploit the law of large numbers to
phase out oneoff variances now as
promised I'll go on to show a bet that
can actually be placed so you guys can
realize that this is definitely not a
scam this wouldn't be possible without a
fast-paced betting odds comparison site
like odds Jam which is also today's
video sponsor so here you can see that I
am on the odds jams platform which is a
site that collects all the most recent
odds data from all the major bookies and
betting exchanges and then Compares them
all to each other and find all the
Arbitrage and positive EV
opportunities we can see this in the
betting tools there's both Arbitrage and
plus CV as an example we can see this
Arbitrage calculator tells us how much
to bet on each event to guarantee a
profit so here we can see for our market
player made threes for Marcus Morris if
we bet over 2.5 on Caesar and we bet
under 2.5 on fanel with the
corresponding amounts of 500 and 659 we
can get a profit guaranteed of $40 58 on
the other hand for our plus EV bets
oddam will just recommend an amount to
wager which is how much to bet based on
our Kelly Criterion and our expected
value of how much we'll make is the
amount to wager multiplied by the
percentage of the EV we can change our
Kelly bank roll in our settings and we
can also actually set email
notifications to be reminded instantly
when there's a large positive EV bet to
place for example here when I get 21%
for this Market odds Jam has the latest
odds St of many bookmakers across the
world but for now the opportunities are
predominantly in the United States so if
you live there then you are in luck and
you're easily going to find plenty of
opportunities and you will make back the
subscription cost and more very quickly
odd Jam also has a neat bet tracking
feature that measures your performance
this helps you keep track of how you are
doing as an added bonus I've managed to
get you guys 25% off your first month
subscription to get this you must one
use use the link below and two enter the
code Shane 25 to get 25% off your first
month if you enjoyed this video then
make sure to give it a big like down
below it really helps out the channel
and if you learned something today then
make sure to subscribe to not miss out
on the upcoming educational Sports
breing content as always take care and
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