This content explores the potential profitability of a betting strategy that involves "laying" (betting against) outcomes at odds of 1.01, investigating whether the common observation of large amounts of money waiting to be matched at these odds translates into a viable long-term trading approach.
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after 2000 markets
let's see if i have made money or if
i've lost
have you ever noticed if you scroll down
to the bottom of the prices on betfair
you always tend to see tons of money
waiting to be matched at 101 well not
long after starting betfair trading i
noticed this i always wondered what is
going on surely all these people are
just losing money over and over again
not one glitter i started to watch
trading videos here on youtube and heard
people saying that long-term data
suggested that laying 101 was actually a
profitable strategy with the theory
being that the trader is going to lose a
large number of times but these small
losses will be outweighed by these big
wins you'll get every so often as a
naturalist skeptical person i was always
a little bit suspicious of this idea why
would odds of 101 be magically different
to any other odds odds of course
represent probability 99
in the case of 101 and surely if an
event is greater than 99 chance of
occurring then 101 should surely be back
value and oppositely just like any of
the odds if the probability of the
outcome occurring is less than 99 then
101 would in fact be lay value but this
isn't what i was hearing in youtube
videos it doesn't really explain why all
this money is waiting at 101 ready to be
matched could it really be that easy to
be profitable all you need to do is just
lay 101 over and over again at the end
of the day curiosity has got the better
of me which is why i'm making this video
to try to figure out the truth when i
first heard the rumors that lane at 101
was profitable in the long term i saw
that none of these people were actually
providing any evidence to prove that
this is true so i decided to search
through the depths of the internet to
see if i could find this data myself and
i didn't really find much but i did come
across some interesting data one article
i found on the website called the game
hunter honestly i have no idea how
reputable that source is but it was the
only data that i could find the data i
found was in fact for horse racing
trading and over a two year period 28
000 horses matched odds of 1.01 of these
387 went on to lose their race 387 out
of 28 000 might not sound like a lot but
if you had laid all of these 28 000
horses which are matched at odds of 101
and let's say we're using a hundred
pound stake so that's one pound my
ability for every single bet you would
lose just over 27 000 pounds on all the
horses which matched at 101 and went on
to win the race as they're expected to
do but the 387 horses which matched at
101 and went on to lose would actually
give you a profit of over thirty seven
thousand pounds well side note that's
assuming that using the standard two
percent commission model on bedford and
overall this strategy of weighing all
these 28 thousand horses would have
given you a total profit of just over
ten thousand pounds now that number
looks nice of course but let's not get
carried away here it's a couple of
things which raise concerns firstly as i
alluded to i'm not sure about the
credibility of this data i'm assuming
that it's accurate but unfortunately i
have no way of verifying that secondly
this data is over a decade old so there
is a good chance that the data isn't
reflective of how the markets are
behaving in now the year 2022. so i'd
say realistically this data set isn't
reliable enough to start basing our
strategies off but it is a good starting
point to suggest that the rumors of lane
of 101 being a long-term profitable
strategy might have some weight towards
them and when you can't find the answers
that you're looking for on google i'm
left with one choice and that is to try
and figure it out myself which is what
i'm going to do in this video i'm going
to run a sort of rudimentary experiment
to figure out if lane at 101 can be a
profitable strategy i won't be placing
you know 28 000 bets to figure this out
because you know i want to hold this
video at some point this decade but i'll
place as many bets as i physically can
to generate the largest sample size so
what i need to do first is what i do
when i'm doing any strategy and that is
to sit here and come up with a plan
however i'm going to implement the
strategy this is a little bit different
because obviously i'm doing a test here
to figure out if wayne at 101 is
profitable long term and now i need to
decide how the best way of figuring that
out is i thought a little bit of trying
to identify places where lane at 101
would be valuable but that just defeats
the entire objective of this video
because you could do that with any odds
and find value that way so ideally i'm
just going to try and find the best way
that i can lay 101 over and over again
and to track those results okay i've
made a few notes now about how i plan to
implement this strategy a part of me is
undecided on whether i should do the
same bet on the same type of market over
and over again so we have a consistent
data set or we should just go gung-ho
and weigh as many selections in as many
different markets all just odds of 101.
i've decided to keep it consistent to
begin with and see how that goes see how
many bets i can get matched per day and
my idea is that i'm going to weigh the
under 2.5 goals market at 101 i'm going
to put the bet in right at the start of
the game obviously it's not going to get
matched until late in the game i've had
a little bit of a research on bet angel
and some goal scoring data that i have
and it predicts that the under 2.5 goals
market will approximately reach odds of
101 somewhere between the 70th and 80th
minute so i'm gonna wait at the
beginning of the game hope to get
matched there at 101 and then obviously
i need three goals to be scored in
approximately 15 minute period plus
added time which is very unlikely but
that's obviously why the odds are 101.
goals are likely to be scored before the
75th minute mark if goals are scored
before that then this changes the
dynamic of the trade i was thinking
what's the best thing to do here should
i cancel a position if a goal is scored
for now i'm just going to leave the
position in for the entire game i want
to see is how many times can i get 101
matched what the results actually are
one thing that i did note down straight
away is it's going to be really
important to try and be at the front of
the queue i don't want to be sat behind
tens and tens of thousands of pounds
waiting to be matched because that is
eating away at my time in which i could
get profit from this trade and i'm going
to do it as an outright bet so obviously
if i lay at 101 and a goal goes in the
price will move up slightly i'm not
going to cash out here to begin with i'm
just going to leave himself out right
back and we'll see
how well that works i've made a couple
of notes about my steak
i don't want to lose all of my bank
doing this and i'll go wrong so i'm just
going to be using 10 pound stakes
because this isn't about making money
this is about research i'm trying to
settle a question which has been
bothering me from a while now so the
first game i'm going to do this on is
the walls versus lee's game just just
because it starts tonight i'm not going
to look at any pre-match research i'm
just going to do as many trades as
possible because that isn't the point
i'm not trying to find an edge from that
principle i'm just trying to see if
there's an edge based purely on odds of
101. so i'm going to open a 2.5 gold
market and i'm going to place away bet
odds of 101 and as i said and there's a
10 pound stake and i'm going to keep the
bet in play so we have a look now at the
price and see how much money is in front
of my money you see that there's 2 500
pound which isn't ideal but i know if i
left this employee by the time the price
was approaching 101 there'd be so much
more money waiting to be matched uh so
no surprises here this game is finished
and it's not won the bet in fact didn't
even get matched as there was already
over 2.5 goals before the price had even
come close to approaching odds of 101.
so yeah one trade in one day is nowhere
near a big enough sample size to to
start making an opinion about this
strategy so tomorrow i'm going to put a
lot more bets into the market in a lot
more games and hope that one of them
might hit so it's the next day here and
it's a saturday which typically is a day
of the week with the most number of
games so i started opening up every
single game and placing a 10-pound
labour in the under 2.5 goals market
making sure that each bet was selected
to keep once the market went into play
it didn't take many markets for me to
realize that this was an incredibly slow
process and i would need a faster
approach if i wanted to place as many
bets as possible for this experiment so
i decided to open up my sports trading
software which enables me to connect to
my betfair account and place bets much
quicker i used a very simple piece of
automation which essentially did two
things number one place a ten pound
labor odds of 1.01 and number two don't
cancel the bet once the market goes into
play this enabled me to place hundreds
of bets extremely quickly and for this
saturday i had 10 pound way bets in just
under 500 markets with a maximum risk of
just under 50 pounds i'm going to come
back tonight to see what mess i've ended
up leaving myself in oh you know you
never know it might in fact just be
profitable so i've been off the computer
all day now i know it's time to check
the results from the first day of doing
this i'm presuming that not many of
those 500 bets will have matched but
let's find out the worst case scenario
is about 50 pound down let's not hope
that's true
okay
13.60 down
wonderful hey so that's 137 markets
matched in theory on average you should
win once every 100 markets this is quite
quite a disappointing result hey a
couple of reasons why this might be the
case number one is because of the way
i've set the automation firewall but
it's going to place bets in markets
which are like one there or one goal in
them on like the 90th minute or the late
80 minutes which is not what i want
really but it's still weighing at 101 i
suppose which is what the aim of this
experiment was tomorrow i think i'm
going to change the automation wheel so
that it will cancel the bet after around
80 minutes in poi this means that the
bot is only going to pick up on markets
which are nil nil between the 70th and
80th minute which is what i wanted
really so i'm gonna try that tomorrow
see what happens it's the next day here
and looking at the results there was a
few games which hadn't finished when i
recorded last night so my overall loss
from day one is in fact even bigger i'm
going to change the way the automation
works because the way it's currently set
up the bet is going to stay in the
market break the entire game so it'll be
there when i want it to be though if the
game's about nil nil at around the 70
and 80th minute but it'll also be there
if there is one goal scored or two goals
in the game and the game is approaching
the 90th mania or even the very last
seconds of the game but that'll still be
there and can still be taken this may be
the cause of all my losses from day one
so because of that i'm adding one extra
condition to the automation cancel all
unmatched bet 95 minutes after the game
goes in play this would be approximately
after the 80th minute 45 minutes in the
first half 15 minute half time and then
35 minutes of the second half after
making this change i'm gonna come back
tonight to see if the automation did any
better today
or if this is gonna be a very expensive
video so i didn't have a chance to look
at any of the results from the bets i've
placed so it's not a day later i've been
at work all day and i've been itching to
check what the results are but i didn't
want to show you because i wanted to see
the live reaction here let's have a look
at my profit and loss here to see how i
did yesterday
it's called get bad okay so these must
been games that went in overnight past
12 o'clock august today
promising to start eight losses
oh wow
it's pretty good eh 2289
2289
167 markets that seems
quite too many markets for the
automation but i said well perhaps it
was an error there but what is that is
that it's like four or five wins there
we go there's a win
no idea what that league is all of these
leagues i've got no idea what they are
but yeah i've got i've got wins which
makes me feel a bit more confident that
i'm not going to lose all my money
making this video to look at my total
profit so far we've got seven pound
profit over 320 markets we're still in
the early stages so far testing the
strategy but it's promising at the
moment i'm going to be putting the
automation on and it's going to try and
get as many markets as possible and
let's see how well we can do i did some
thinking and realized that the
automation didn't work properly and more
bets were placed than they should have
been because i messed up on the third
automation rule didn't set it up
correctly but as the 300 plus bets that
i'd placed so far with the original
automation was giving me results i could
work with i decided to keep using these
conditions rather than fixing the broken
automation rule it's been a few weeks
since i last recorded however i've been
placing lay bets at 101 in as many under
2.5 gold markets that i can possibly
find all in all i have pleased over 5
000 bets and just over 2 000 of those
i've gone on to get matched so over 2
000 10 pound lay bets odds of 101 puts
my overall risk from this strategy this
experiment over 200 pounds so this is
the moment of truth after 2000 markets
let's see if i have made money or if
i know we have it after a terrible start
where i went 15 pounds down the strategy
has made a miraculous comeback and i'm
quite aware the strategy has done really
well if odds of 1.01 accurately reflect
the true probability then i was expected
to win quite a few times given the
number of markets i've ended up trading
but i've gone on to win many more
markets and i was expected to do so
which is a promising sign that this
strategy does in fact actually have
something going for it when i look at
some of the games where the strategy's
won there's been some games where i've
needed three goals in order to profit
somewhere was two goals needed for me to
win and some was the last second goal
that enabled me to get a profit i really
should emphasize that these results that
i've got so far do not guarantee by any
stretch of the imagination that this is
actually a long-term profitable strategy
there is every chance after thousands
and thousands of more markets than i've
already done that this strategy could
well in fact prove to be a losing
strategy in the long run and this is why
trading is so risky and it's very
important which what i've done here used
very low stakes each trade was tempe i'm
willing to use very low stakes in order
to develop my strategies and i recommend
that is what you do too and there's
every chance that if you just try to
copy exactly what i do you could
actually lose money so please be careful
when you are bet for trading i've been
giving that caveat i must say that i'm
very impressed with the start of this
strategy i'm going to continue to
develop and fine-tune this strategy in
the coming weeks and months if you want
to know how i set up my automation for
this trading strategy each day in order
to get the profits that i've got as a
matter of fact i've uploaded a tutorial
video to my patreon detail exactly how i
set this automation to run in the
background when i'm doing other things
if you're interested you can check it
out in the video description below you
can get your hands on some exclusive
trading content to say thank you i'd
like to specially thank all the people
who are already supporting the channel
really means a lot here's a little
shout-out for you for supporting the
channel this experiment has settled my
mind a little bit to finally make me
understand why there is always so much
money waiting to be matched at such
rewards and i'm excited to develop this
strategy further however one strategy on
its own isn't enough on your bet for
trading and if you want to learn
everything you can possibly know the ins
and outs of one of the most popular bet
for trading strategies out there you can
check out this video right here giving
an in-depth overview of the under 2.5
goals trading strategy [Music]
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