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Trump’s Ukraine peace deal 'on brink of collapse' | Ukraine: The Latest | The Telegraph | YouTubeToText
YouTube Transcript: Trump’s Ukraine peace deal 'on brink of collapse' | Ukraine: The Latest
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Core Theme
The latest developments in the Ukraine conflict highlight Ukraine's steadfast resistance despite heavy fighting, while internal Russian affairs show signs of strain and strategic adjustments, all against a backdrop of complex international peace negotiations influenced by US policy shifts.
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I'm Francis Sternley and this is Ukraine
the latest. Today, [music] as President
Zilinski appears to reject Donald
Trump's proposal for Ukraine to seed
territory to Moscow, we examine the new
European plan set to be presented to the
US later on. We also report on Ukrainian
troops still holding out in the
frontline city of Perrosp before turning
to developments inside [music] Russia,
including Putin's new law requiring
100,000 military reserves to undergo 2
months of training and growing protests
over tax rises.
>> Bravery takes you through the most
unimaginable hardships to finally reward
you with victory.
If I'm president, I will have that war
settled in one day, 24 hours.
>> We are with you, not just today or
>> Nobody's going to break us. We are
strong. We are Ukrainians.
It's Tuesday, the 9th of December, 3
years and 290 days since the full-scale
invasion began. And today, I'm joined by
our associate editor of defense, Dominic
Nichols, and the podcast's very own
Russia analyst, James Kilmer. But first,
the latest from the front lines.
>> Right, Prosp has not yet fallen despite
Putin's recent claim that Russian forces
have taken the city. Those words come
from our friend and colleague Jonathan
Beiel, the defense editor of the BBC.
He's reporting from the east Ukraine at
the moment. He says there is no doubt
Ukraine has been losing ground in the
city. The city is in ruins. He says the
battle there has been grinding on for
nearly 18 months. But he says Russian
forces have slowly been advancing from
the south. Ukraine is losing ground but
says it still holds the north up to the
railway line that bisects the city. He
was with a number of Ukrainian forces in
the headquarters where they had
personnel on the ground that went into
the city to raise the Ukrainian flag and
take a photo. We see this quite a lot.
Doesn't mean they hold that position,
just that they are there for that brief
moment in time. Anyway, he said that he
reports the Russians have been using
small teams of two to four soldiers to
get past Ukrainian positions, sometimes
dressed as civilians. One Ukrainian
battalion commander said, "That's a good
tactic to get behind enemy lines to get
a foothold." But then added, "The enemy
who gets into our rear is quickly
identified and destroyed." One soldier
known to Johnny Bill as rabbit described
the situation as hard but under control.
He showed Johnny a Russian machine gun
captured by one of his comrades who
spent 70 straight days fighting in
Picrosk. Rabbit said all he wanted was
cigarettes and ammunition. Now, the
fighting is clearly taking its toll on
Ukrainian forces, Johnny says, but
there's no sign of them giving up. Nor
does Rabbit agree with any suggestion
that Ukraine should give up more land
for peace. He says too much blood has
already been spilled. He said, "We are
part of this land. If we give it up,
Russia will want more." Another soldier
called sign ghost fighting in another
unit in describes the situation as tense
but not critical. He dismissed reports
of the city's capture as a Russian
propaganda, saying reports that Picross
is surrounded is fake information.
However, he added that everyone is
exhausted, both Russia and Ukraine.
Now, Johnny reports the Russians have
been using drones with thermal imaging
cameras or more of them than Ukraine
has. Obviously, they'll be able to see
at night. One soldier said that he and
his men always hoped for good weather,
by which he meant fog, rain, and gray
sky. Johnny finishes by saying, "The
message from the troops we talked to is
that the situation in Picrosk is not so
bleak, but Ukraine needs proof of its
resolve at this critical time." We'll
put a link in the episode notes to
Johnny's article. Otherwise, elsewhere
around the country, no significant other
move. Still no great move by Russia west
in the area of Denipro Petrosp Zaparisia
Oblast border areas. Similarly, no
further move in Kubansk in the
northeast. reports recently that Ukraine
had counterattacks in that area. That
seems to have held the situation,
although they've not been able to eject
Russian forces completely from the city,
but nor has Russia been able to get
through. Sunumi left without power this
morning following Russian attacks last
night. 24 of 110 Russian drones got
through air defense, hitting nine
locations. They were mainly in the north
in Sunumi just as I said then rotating
east through Daetsk Zaparisia and
Hezison in the south where two people
were killed there. In total 10 people
killed in the last 24 hours 43 others
injured according to local authorities.
Now you remember that strike on Turnipil
in the west of Ukraine on November the
19th. Two ballistic missiles hit a
residential block there killed dozens of
civilians. Well, as of today, the death
toll stands at 38 after police say they
identified the bodies of two more
victims that had previously been
considered missing. One of the victims
was 7-year-old Polish citizen Amelia.
Poland's foreign ministry declared that
she died with her mother during the
attack. Now, General Alexander Serski,
the head of Ukraine's armed forces, says
that Ukraine is going to focus on
strengthening the army through better
mobilization, recruitment, and high
quality training. He was speaking this
morning following a recent meeting with
a number of senior military personnel.
Writing on Facebook, he said, "The enemy
continues its advance, so we have no
choice but to strengthen our defense and
reinforce our army to continue repelling
Russia's full-scale aggression." It
looks like they're going to be aiming to
improve both the structure and
conditions of military training. Among
the key changes, we're told the military
is going to be extending the duration of
its basic military training to 51 days.
As an aside, I'm well out of date, but I
did do a little time as a recruit
trainer in my military service when our
basic military training was 11 weeks or
77 days. So, it gives you a bit of
comparison. So, that Ukraine is going to
increase its basic military training to
51. So, about what about four weeks less
than you get in in a British or
equivalent military. They're also going
to introduce specialized instruction and
an adaptation period within combat
units. I presume by the adaptation
period they mean actually then training
on your specific role rather than just
getting bunged in there and training on
the job which is never a good thing in
the face of the enemy although sometimes
desperate measures and all that.
Additional measures are going to include
improving the selection of training of
instructors. Always one of the most
important parts of any training pipeline
is get the instructors. Don't get a load
of primadonas who the creeping
excellence as we used to call it. Oh, I
passed the course. If loads of people
pass the course, that means it was easy.
Therefore, I'm going to fail loads of
people to show how hard it is. You don't
want that. You want professional, good,
quality instructors who are good
examples to the people they are
training. They're also going to be
modernizing their training center
infrastructure and improving
psychological and tactical adaptation
support to newly mobilized personnel.
Not entirely sure what that means.
Anyway, to increase safety and ensure
consistent training, General Cerski said
the military is going to be relocating
programs away from the frontline areas
where they can. Bearing in mind the
ballistic missile threat means that
everywhere is under some sort of threat.
They're going to be assigning each army
corps to certain training grounds in the
center and the west of the country.
Serski said, "We have no right to be
careless with the safety of our
servicemen. I have issued the necessary
orders to address the identified
problems." Very good. You might say, why
is it taking till now? I mean, in the
white heat of the chaotic first few
months, it was probably just a question
of get everyone very basic training,
give them a gun, give them a job, point
them east. However, I think for the last
couple of years, they would have had
room to really look at the training
pipeline. I'm a little surprised it's
taken this long, but you know, I'm not
there. into Russia and the SBU.
Ukraine's security service and the
Ukrainian general staff say that their
forces destroyed 20 fuel tanks, 70% of
the total in the drone strike on
Russia's Terriyuk seapport in Krasador
Cry last Friday. We reported it but we
didn't have these stats. This comes from
Ukraine's general staff. Then a source
in the SPU, the security service of
Ukraine speaking to our colleagues at
the Kev Independent says that they
targeted in that strike a liqufied
natural gas terminal in Russia's Terri
Seap port with drones triggering a
massive fire that's been burning for the
last 3 days. According to the source,
the strike caused fires in more than 20
of the site's 30 storage tanks, an area
covering 3,000 square meters. They also
released a video to go with it, which is
mostly orange because everything's on
fire. Now, Russia says that it shot down
280 Ukrainian drones in the last 24
hours. There are unverified reports I've
seen, but indicating something has hit
places in occupied Crimea. And then in
Ingashetta, that is a Russian region
bordering Georgia, Kranadar, just
mentioned it, but that's to the east of
the Kursed Bridge and also Vorones and
Leetsk. They are regions between Ukraine
and Moscow. Russia also says it shot
down a Ukrainian SU27 fighter jet
yesterday. I have seen that verified
elsewhere. However, Tim White, a
freelance journalist at always worth a
follow. This morning, he says that
Russia also lost two pilots yesterday
and probably more today with news of a
Russian army A&22 transport aircraft,
one of the big antinoffs, crashing in
the Yvodsko reservoir, that's in Ianovo
region of Russia about 300ks northeast
of Moscow. Seven people were apparently
on board. None have been found. Divers
are searching in the reservoir for the
bodies. Tim says it's the second A&22 to
crash in the same region in the last 18
months and was the last operational one
of its type in Russia. He says it was
there were reports that that plane was
decommissioned last year but Russia is
so short of cargo planes it remained in service.
service.
Can't verify that but interesting if
that's a maintenance failure. Now then,
a little further east from there, Russia
says 14 people were injured, including a
child, according to local authorities,
in a Ukrainian drone attack on the city
of Chbuksari. That's in the Chuvash
region. There's imagery on social media
purportedly showing a drone strike into
an apartment block. Tim says that
Ukraine's target may well have been the
Chbukari number two thermal power plant
or the VNIR Progress defense factory,
which we reported was hit a few weeks
ago. that is only 500 meters away from
where this blast occurred. And just
finally for me, Francis, the Lithuanian
government has declared a nationwide
emergency situation today due to
repeated cases of balloons flying into
Lithuania from Barus. We talked a little
bit about this yesterday, I think, or
maybe Monday. Now, the move's going to
allow state institutions to coordinate
responses more effectively and involve
the military. Lithuania says that
balloons have regularly been flown into
their airspace carrying contraband
mostly posing a risk to national
security, human life, property, and the
environment. Lithuanian officials have
accused Bellarusian dictator Alexander
Lucenko of deliberately allowing and
thereby weaponizing this practice of
floating the balloons over, describing
as part of a wider hybrid attack on
their country. Now, I think this is an
interesting test case because on the one
hand, you could say, "Ah, it's only a
balloon. seems like an overreaction to
use armed force to bring it down, but
you know, it could easily escalate. And
without getting all Tom Clansancy about
the whole thing, but these things, if
they're carrying cigarettes now, they
could be carrying weapons or explosives
tomorrow. We've seen them shut down
airspace already. Imagine a whole fleet
of these things floated across Lithuania
and elsewhere on the first day of some
potential military provocation, shutting
down airspace. We know Putin and uh
well, Lucenko, but does what he's told.
We know Putin likes to push until they
meet resistance and so why would he stop
even if it is only a balloon with a few
on board? Why would he stop? So
yeah, interesting to see what Lithuania
and NATO does next. That's us up to
date, Francis.
>> Well, thanks Tom and to everyone who
came to say hello at the Telegraph carol
service at some brides Fleet Street
yesterday. One lady tried to argue that
Oh come all ye faithful is the best
festive tune followed closely behind by
Wham's Last Christmas.
>> Wrong. bold choices. I'm a fan of the
Sussex Carol personally. But anyway, you
rejoin us everyone as President Trump's
peace plan is seemingly on the brink
after President Zilinski insisted after
that emergency summit in Downing Street
yesterday, Ukraine had no obligation to
seed territory to Russia. After that
meeting, Zilinski before hopping on a
flight to Brussels said, "We have no
right under the law, under the law of
Ukraine, under our constitution or under
international law to be honest, and we
have no moral right. That is what we are
fighting for. Now you may remember back
in February I was invited to that small
round table with Zilinski where sensing
this might be where we ended up. I asked
him whether there was any scenario where
he would agree to a ceasefire or to a
peace deal that would see territory
seeded to Moscow it does not currently
control. He was unequivocal. That would
not be a peace deal. He said that would
be a capitulation.
Now, some would argue that still leaves
him room for legal maneuver. That
territory may not be handed over in a
legal sense, but de facto. Yet, that
clearly wasn't the intent behind what he
said back then. This is a longstanding
red line.
It's understood KE is set to send Trump
a Europebacked counter proposal later
today, balancing out the previous draft
and rejecting Russia's demand to give up
the entire eastern Donbass. We don't
know the full details of that proposal
yet. Interestingly though, number 10 has
voiced optimism a deal may be close.
This is the furthest we've got in four
years, said the prime minister
spokesman, and we welcome the fact that
these talks are continuing at every
level. However, it's worth bearing in
mind that no government at the moment
wants to be signaling negativity in part
not to risk the wrath of the Americans.
At the same time as that meeting was
happening in London, British Foreign
Secretary Vet Cooper was in Washington
meeting US Secretary of State Marco
Rubio trying to build bridges.
It seems the most considerable progress
yesterday was on the frozen Russian
assets. London is now hopeful a deal
could be done between European leaders
within days. Yet whether it's all the
assets or just some of them is unclear.
And thanks to those listeners in
Belgium, the chief blocker at the
moment, we understand, who've written to
us giving us the mood music there. I'm
going to reflect on some of that in a
future episode. Now, if those frozen
assets are unlocked, then the Trump
administration isn't going to be happy
as they've clearly signaled they want
all of the assets on the table for their
negotiations with the Kremlin. It seems
that tensions between the US and Europe
are frankly spilling over with
Chancellor Mets's remarks yesterday that
he was skeptical about American demands
and that sharing by Trump shortly after
yesterday's talks of a New York Post
article titled Impotent Europeans can
only fume as Trump sidelines them for
Ukraine deal. Since then, in an
interview with Politico published this
morning, he denounced Europe as a
decaying group of nations led by weak
people, belittling the traditional US
allies for failing to control migration
and to end the war and signaling he
would endorse European political
candidates aligned with his own vision
for the continent. Something also stated
very clearly in the new US national
security strategy published last week,
which we discussed. Further evidence of
frustration in the White House can be
found from reports that Trump's envoys
pushed Zilinski for immediate consent to
seed Ukrainian territory to Russia
during their call on December the 6th,
with their peace proposal worsening
after their trip to Moscow, offering
tougher terms on territorial concessions
and control over the Zaparisia power
plant while sidest stepping apparently
any real security guarantees pledges.
Clearly, the envoys are under intense
pressure now from Trump to get a deal
done so that economic ties with Russia
can resume and have taken the decision
to put pressure on Keev rather than
Moscow. As an Applebound writes in the
Atlantic, quite a few Ukrainians and
indeed many Europeans believe that the
investigation which brought down Yermach
has somehow been assisted by the Trump
administration as a way of weakening
Zalinski to force him to capitulate.
She then goes on to underscore an irony
here. Wickoff and Kushner are not taking
kickbacks on government contracts as
some Ukrainian officials are now accused
of doing. The corruption they represent
is more profound. They're using the
tools of the American state in a manner
that happens to benefit their friends
and business partners even while they do
terrible damage to America's allies,
American alliances, and America's
reputation. This is a conflict of
interest on a grand scale with no real
precedent in modern American foreign
policy. In Ukraine, the state itself is
investigating the government, the
cabinet, even the president's closest
advisers. By contrast, it is impossible
to imagine Cash Patel's FBI
investigating anyone in Trump's White
House. Any Russian who investigates
Putin goes to jail. The word corruption
has many nuances and we aren't using
enough of them when we talk about Ukraine.
Ukraine.
So, an interesting piece there which
we'll link to in the show notes. And
just as a side tangent on that point
about America's reputation, CNN has a
fascinating exclusive at the moment that
I point you to on a previously
undisclosed secret mission in 2017. So
during during Trump's first term when
the US extracted from Russia one of its
highest level covert sources inside the
Kremlin partly because of concerns that
Trump is in his administration
repeatedly mishandled classified
intelligence that could contribute to
exposing the covert source as a spy. But
to wrap up Dom your Valentine Czech
President Petra Pavl is in the news
again today.
>> Good man. Having formally appointed the
billionaire leader of the populist ANO
party Andre Babis as prime minister, his
cabinet will include the anti-EU and
pro-Russian SPD party and your favorite
domists for themselves.
>> That party whose main agenda is opposing
the EU's climate policy. It's got to be
one of the best named parties in Europe,
that surely. It's not yet clear what
impact this will have on Czecha's
support for Ukraine. But Parville has
been very vocal in saying that he
intends to wield considerable influence
on its foreign policy. So I think watch
this space on that one. Meanwhile,
Zilinski's in Rome meeting Pope Leo I
14th at Castell Gandalfo, the Pontiff's
hilltop vacation retreat used by the
popes since 1626. Sounds like the
perfect place for a festive drink. He'll
later meet Georgia Maloney before
sharing the revised peace plan with the
US I mentioned earlier on. He'll also be
trying to decide, I think, who will be
the new head of his office after Yerax's
resignation. We named the candidates
yesterday. Among them, Dennis Mihal,
Ukraine's defense minister, digital
transformation minister Michaela
Federov, military intelligence chief
Krillo Badanov, and deputy president's
office head Pablo Palisa. We understand
the appointment was originally meant to
be made last Thursday, but Zilinski held
off. And since we mentioned the papacy,
one last story. We learned last week
that Pope Francis, who died back in
April, of course, left money in his will
to purchase ambulances for Ukraine. This
was revealed by Sister Luchia Karam, who
has been traveling to Ukraine on
humanitarian missions since the start of
the invasion, and said Francis had
promised support, but didn't actually
expect him to enshrine it in his will.
Now, as we've talked about many times on
the podcast, ambulances save hundreds of
lives each month. So, if you are looking
for a cause to donate to this season,
that might be worth your consideration.
We featured on this podcast the NGO
Ukraine Focus before, who I joined on
route to Ukraine last year. stopping off
at the D-Day anniversary to hear
President Biden say Ukraine was fighting
for the same values as those Americans
who died to liberate Europe. I just
mentioned that because it feels like a
long, long time ago indeed. But let's
turn now to Russia and our Russia
correspondent on Ukraine, the latest,
James Kilner. Now James, at the moment
you're back in West Yorkshire and I
understand that you were in central
Huddersfield overseeing well I hope you
were anyway the Huddersfield
International Crisp Festival and I was
reading the article that you sent across
about this absolutely fascinating stuff
but I think one perhaps for us to focus
on instead in our final thoughts James
to more important matters these peace
talks. Welcome back. What exactly is the
Russian press saying about all this? Are
they thinking that peace is imminent?
Frances, just to clarify, the
international Chris Championship
happened in October. I was at the pub
where the Chris Championship was staged.
Uh the sportsman's arms in central
Huntersfield where they do XM points.
But putting that aside, back to the
issue of the day, the line in the
Russian media continues to be consistent
about where they are on these peace
talks. They're still projecting the
Europeans and the Ukrainians as the
wararmongers and how the Kremlin and
Putin are suing for peace with the US.
The US very much the good guys. There've
been such a change from before the
presidential election in the US last
year when Biden was the US president.
The US were the bad boys and now under
Trump they're very much the good boys
according to the Russian media and it's
the Europeans and the Ukrainians who are
scuppering what should be a natural
Russia US peace deal. The Kremlin very
much wants to do a deal with US. It
doesn't really want to do a deal with
Ukraine. Various headlines saying that
the contacts of the American side
continue for existing channels. This is
after the the Wickoff Kushner visit to
the Kremlin. So the Kremlin's very much
saying we're still negotiating. We still
want peace here. It's the Europeans and
the Ukrainians who are messing this up.
This is all sort of laced through as it
has been throughout France's with
increased posturing increased sort of
lacing the media with tales of heroism
from Russian soldiers on the front line
daring do etc reminding Russian public
of the soldiers and of their legacy and
today is is the defender of the
fatherland day in Russia and only today
Putin was handing out here are Russia
medals to military guys inside the
Kremlin. So they are very much as we've
been reporting throughout presenting the
Kremlin as as people as the team that
wants peace but also pushing the front
line. So there's a double-edged sword
here about what they're trying to project.
project.
>> Well, thanks very much James. Now that
brings us on to the next I think big
story of the week in the Russian sphere
and that of course is this new law which
will see 100,000 military reservists do
two months of training. Can you tell us
a little bit more about this?
>> Yeah, right. So this again feeds into
what we've just been talking about. I
feel it's very much, you know, we want
to do a peace with the good guys. We
want to do a peace in Ukraine, but also
we're prepared to fight on. So this was
a law Putin signed yesterday where he
called up 100,000 military reser. If you
remember, the Russia only set up its
reserve army in 2015 after Crimeir was
annexed 12 months earlier. So it's
called up 100,000 military reser two
months training from beginning of next
year. Now, this doesn't automatically
mean that after their two months
training, they're going to get sent off
to Ukraine. But it does come as your
listeners will probably know a couple of
months after reser were mobilized into
anti- drone units by various regions of
Russia and also after parliament passed
a law in mid-occtober I think it was
which allowed reser for the first time
to be deployed alongside regular
soldiers in Ukraine. So Putin and the
Kremlin haven't said they're sending an
extra 100,000 military reserves to
Ukraine. That's not what has been said
here, but it is moving in the direction.
It feels like mobilization by stealth.
Uh it feels like this is part of the way
the Kremlin is able to project pressure
to put pressure on on Ukraine and its
European allies at a time when it's
trying to get the best peace deal
possible with increasingly it seems the
help of the US. So I think this is
another tool in the Kman's armory. We're
going to have to be very watchful the
end of February, March time and see what
happens with these 100,000 reserves.
>> Interesting. Well, thanks very much,
James. Now, of course, we've spoken with
you many, many times about the economic
picture in Russia at the moment and its
various oscillations, but generally it's
becoming more negative the longer the
war is going on. And I know that you've
been looking into VAT tax rises. Yeah,
the reason I've been looking at this
again, it's been spiking a bit on the
Kremlin's propaganda outlets, this
newspaper propaganda outlets. And this
seems to be because it it's triggering
rare sort of anti- Kremlin sentiment.
There was a protest in its town in
Siberia at the end of November where 150
people gathered for this ostensively
pro-Putin, pro-Russia rally. This is
really the only way of holding a some
sort of protest or public rally in
Russia these days. They're banned. You
have to get permission from local
authorities. They're only likely to give
permission if it's sort of a pro Putin,
pro-Russia rally. So the way around it
is they apply for a nationalist
patriotic rally with the Russian flags
and slogans in favor of Putin. And then
they appeal, this is something which is
fairly common in Russia. They appeal
directly to the president as the the
embodiment of the state to do something
about this situation which they're
aggravated by. And in this case it was
this VAT tax rise uh which is due to
come in on January the 1st which is
raising VAT from 20% to 22%. And these
apparently according to reports were
local business leaders. They were
complaining that this is going to really
impact their business. It's going to
cause a load of redundancies. It's going
to cause a load of diminished business
sales. It comes at a time as as we've
increasingly been talking about
inflation's rising you know the war
debts mounting up jobs are diminishing
etc etc and now the start of this long
Russian winter season where you got
utilities seen their budget slash street
lighting quality roads upkeep of
municipal apartments all this sort of
stuff so yeah heating outages power
outages you know so these are long
winters in Russia so people getting
increasingly annoyed they know exactly
why the ATS be increased and the Kremlin
is very specific about it when it
announced the rise about two months ago.
It said it's going to be increased to
pay for the war in Ukraine. Um and these
little tension points are really
important to to highlight. If you
remember I came on the podcast a couple
of months ago or six weeks ago was
talking about how there was a protest in
Balib Bosto where importers of cars
there were getting very grumpy about an
extra tax been slapped on on on car
imports. So this is the same sort of
rare just tension threshold that it's
important to notice. Putin himself seems
to have noticed. This is also important.
He was at a big government strategy
meeting yesterday and in it he talked
about various different things. France
is one of his pet projects is trying to
increase birth rate in in Russia and
he's failing to do that and he was
grumpy about that. But he also spoke
about the VAT rise which is to my
knowledge maybe the first time he's
directly spoken about it and he blamed
it on the central bank. He said well
this is a central bank idea to raise
taxes. It's only going to be temporary.
This was his line. I mean of course this
is a Kremlin project and of course it's
unlikely to be temporary but this was
his line. The point is here Russians are
frustrated. You can see this by this
rare protest. This frustration is being
reported back to Putin who is then
commenting on it live at a big Kremlin
shindig which is then reported on by all
the Kremlin media. So interesting
dynamics going on there. Francis.
>> Thanks, James. And I know that Dom's got
a a question as well in a bit, but just
I have to ask first of all because it's
relating to the news this week, of
course, Putin being in India for this
meeting with Modi and various different
deals being signed and we knew that we
would be having you on this week. So,
very interested in your take on some of
the major things that we've learned from
this and perhaps signed even. Well, I
think it was a fairly scripted
opticsheavy visit by Putin. For Putin's
propaganda machine, he really needed
these photo shots of him laughing in the
back of a car with Modi, having private
dinners, these great inspection of the
guard, this sort of thing. He needed all
that and he, you know, he definitely got
all that. And then there was some sort
of there were illusions to deals around
weapons around joint production of of
passenger jet this sort of thing. I
think one of the most important
policy outcomes of this trip, which
really went under reportported in the
west anyway, was Putin needed Modi to
agree to basically sending what could
amount to be hundreds of thousands of
Indian migrant workers to Russia to plug
gaps in the workforce in Russia. This
was trailed a week or 10 days before
Putin's trip to Delhi and then coverage
of it really sort of dropped off. But
we've now had a first deputy prime
minister Dennis Manurov. He's has popped
up and said that Russia will now be
opening itself to quote an unlimited
migration of workers from India. And the
numbers are quite staggering. Like he
was talking about Russia needing 800,000
workers to plug gaps in this industry
alone and another 1.5 million to plug
gaps in trade and logistics. Now this is
a critical deal for the creme. Really
critical. I'd argue is the most
important thing that Putin came away
with. Although it's much more
complicated for mainstream western media
to really get into for India it creates
all sorts of optic problems here. For
them basically India became the biggest
buyer of Russian crude oil once the war
in Ukraine has started. So it was in
many ways propping up the Kremlin war
machine that way. Now it may be propping
up the Kremlin war machine by literally
sending labor to Russia. This is
something that North Korea has been
doing. The context with this here we
know that North Korea sent tens of
thousands I think you know 20,000 and
one one go another 20,000 another go to
to work on farms and in light factory
industries around St. in Petersburg as
well as soldiers for the Russian army.
But here we have the the prospect of
Indian workers really really going to
Russia and working in industry which
will be helping the Russian war machine.
So for my mind that is the most
interesting potentially spicy part of
the Putin Modi bilateral diplomatic
talks. Hi James, great to chat again
mate. On the India visit, I saw some
comment that the lack of very public
pronouncements about weapons deals and
all the rest of it that you might expect
at the end of a big bilat such as this
spoke volumes. And the comment I saw was
that that that must mean that even more
had been done behind closed doors that
we don't know about. And it was sort of
styled as this is even worse for
Ukraine. I mean, is that how these
things happen? I've always expected if
they've done some great deals that they
take every opportunity to trumpet it. Or
do you think it's significant that we
didn't really see an awful lot in public
at the end of the visit?
>> I did see some headlines. You're right.
There wasn't like a great pronouncement
at the end of the Modi Putin talks, but
there were some leaks about building
joint production of a Russian um
passenger jet in India. There were some
sort of slight tendrils about getting
Russian missile supplies up and running
again to India, etc. But no hard and
firm stuff. I do think the stuff will
leak out. I suspect it's very hard for
India to to be seen to be doing hard
deals with Russia. And I I think for the
Kremlin, the photo was just as important
as the hard deals. They're realistic
about what they're going to get India to
sign off on. I do think this Labor
migration deal, which has now been
leaked out or is being worked on, but is
definitely something Kremlin is very
keen on, is probably the most important
element of what Putin was doing down
there. And that has been kept under
wraps a bit. The prospect of Indian
workers like I've been saying working in
Russian industry which is propping up a
war in Ukraine is very controversial is
absolutely what I think the Kremlin
would like to see happen. It's much
harder to pull off. So they're
pragmatic. They'll be deciding how to
dress this up and seeing really where
they can pull it off.
>> Yeah. And just to go back a stage from
what you you were saying earlier on, you
were talking about the tension
threshold, the communication between
Putin and society over the economic
impact of the war. How much wiggle room
do you think he has to say to put the
rise in VAT and other economic factors
at the foot of the war? Because it's a
special military operation. Okay. It's
just a small little it's basically an
exercise. It's not a war. So, does he
have the room to say this is going to
hit you in the pocket or people will
people turn around and say, "Well, hang
on. I thought it was just some very
minor military scrap." I mean, what do
you think?
>> Well, I don't think the Russian public
were ever really pulled into that race.
I think that was for a western or
diplomatic audience. When I was there
last October, I got a very strong sense
that everyone knew exactly what was
going on. They they have to be very
candid when they talk. But everyone I
spoke to candidly said that they knew
people who've been killed in Ukraine or
combat badly injured and how inflation
was all linked to the war in Ukraine.
Their neighbors had disappeared fighting
the war in Ukraine. People know that
this war is happening. The Russia sphere
is so fluid that everyone has relatives
or friends in Kiev and Moscow and St.
Petersburg and Kazan and and and Hiv
etc. So people understand this. And I
made the point earlier when the VAT rise
was announced at the budget a couple of
months ago. The Crown specifically said
this was needed to pay for the war in
Ukraine. So I mean people know exactly
what's going on in Russia and their
right to protest is severely restricted.
Otherwise I think you would see a lot
more protest but it is too dangerous to
them where it's outlawed and it's and
it's basically too dangerous to break
that ban. Like I said, the way round it
is to apply for a patriotic rally with
with lots of Russian flags and proputin
posters, etc., and then appeal to the
president personally to change an
awkward situation, be it a rise in VAT
or extra taxes on on imported cars. But
it's very very important to track this
sort of stuff and especially important
to track it when it appears to trigger a
reaction from Putin because he will be
getting fed up information through his
own channels that people are angry or
irritated about VAT. And he's had to go
on record basically. This is the point
I'm trying to make. Had to go on record
and confront it directly to the to the
Russian public. He's done what he always
does. He's battered away. He's blamed
someone else. And he said, "Hey, this is
just a temporary problem. Don't
overthink it. >> [music]
>> Dom, where do you want to leave
listeners? First of all,
>> thanks France. There's a couple of
thoughts if I may. Well, two linked
thoughts. I'll point folks to a
interesting piece in the Financial Times
by Gideon Rackman, the chief foreign
affairs commentator. He was talking
about the United States National
Security Strategy that came out last
Friday. We spoke about it. Uh, God, the
days are blowing. I think it was
yesterday. Uh, could have been the day
before. Anyway, Gideon makes the point.
He says, "The national security strategy
makes clear that there is now a battle
underway between two different versions
of the West, which pits the US and
Europe against each other. The Trump
administration view of Western
civilization is based on race,
Christianity, and nationalism. The
European version is a liberal view
founded on democracy, human rights, and
the rule of law, including international
law. In Europe, the biggest threats to
the liberal version of Western
civilization are the far-right parties
that the US is promoting and the Russian
state that the Trump administration is
courting. Little wonder that the Kremlin
senses an opportunity. Words there by
Gideon Rackman. Interesting that that
split and I thought of that in the
context of an email we got from Melis in
Germany. Melis, thank you so much for
getting in touch. He said, I'm from East
Germany and served in both the East
German Army and the West German army,
the Bundesv. I'm still an active
reservist in the Bundesv. I don't
understand the pro-Russians in Germany
who defend a system that did nothing
good in East Germany during the 50-year
occupation. Germany rightly paid massive
reparations after World War II. We lost
a great part of the territories in the
East, and we paid substantial
reparations, at least in East Germany.
During the occupation, the Russians told
us that the Germans could no longer be
trusted after World War II because they
hadn't fought against Hitler and the war
themselves. Therefore, Germany had to
remain occupied. The same standard the
Russians applied to us back then should
also apply to themselves. I've lived in
both systems and I'm still grateful that
the democratic system won and I will
defend it wherever and however I can.
Europe has to get stronger, more
independent and has to stand together
against Russia. No one else will help
us. Thanks Melissa. As I said, thank you
for that email from Germany. I just
thought that was an interesting view of
this idea about as hard power, soft
power, its its values, its nationalism,
things that are going on at the moment.
Russia's making hay. Putin's trying to
drive the wedge. But I thought a lot
came out of the national security
strategy last Friday. Well worth a read
if you've not done so. Lots of comment
out there, ours included, but what it
means and you know, is it a fundamental
shift, a fundamental break in in the
West? Well, thanks very much, Tom. It
sounds like a lot also came out of the
Huddersfield International Crisps
Festival because I've just been reading
about it after James was signaling about
it earlier on. Sounds fascinating.
Apparently, all of the continents of the
world were represented there. Spanish
entries, Italian entries, Iranian
entries, all coming from there. And the
the winner, Hammond Coleman's mustard
flavor variety based in Wales, beat 160
varieties of crisps and snacks to take
the crown. So, I think next year, James,
you're going to have to be our
representative there and uh and give us
a full report on what takes place
because I am a massive Crisp fan, as
long-standing listeners will know.
Indeed, some actually sent some obscure
flavors from around the world and which
were well, some of them were deeply
suspicious. That's all I'll say. But
Dom, I think is still traumatized from
when on one of our train trips to Kev I
was munching them in the middle of the
night. But yes, so James, where would
you like to leave listeners? I'm
guessing it's not going to be with the
Huddersfield International Christmas
Festival, but you know, surprise us.
>> No, it's not Francis, but as you know, I
consider Huddersfield to center of the
known universe. So why wouldn't it have
an international Chris Festival? But I
will leave listeners on a interesting
note that I found this morning. This is
the death of a Russian diplomat.
Actually, Russia's ambassador to North
Korea, a guy called Alexander Mantis
Gorda, 70 years old. He died uh
beginning this week. Uh the actual cause
of death hasn't been released, but the
the significance of his death does seem
worth talking about very quickly. The
context here is that the Russian
approach to commissioning ambassadors
differs slightly from the UK western
approach. They like to put someone in
place for a long time, really embed
them, but that person becomes a real
hinge for Russian foreign policy and
relations with the host country, etc.
The UK system seems much more carousel
like. But anyway, this guy Masuga, he'd
been the ambassador there since 2014,
but he'd spent his entire career as a
diplomat in and out of North Korea,
furthering Soviet or Russian relations.
He spoke Korean fluently apparently and
according to this very sort of unusually
floorid statement by the Russian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs was
absolutely instrumental in pushing North
Korea Russia relations up to this
stratospheric level they're at now. As
your uh listeners will know only too
well, North Korea has been a huge ally
of of Russia in the last few years. sent
soldiers to to fight alongside Russian
soldiers and it sent migrant workers to
to help the Russian economy. Now the
this Russian statement the Russian
foreign ministry statement said that
Matagora was one of the most outstanding
I'm quote quoting a direct quote here
one of the most outstanding
representatives of the Russian
diplomatic school and made an invaluable
contribution into boosting North Korea
Russia relations up to up to this very
high level and was the forefront of the
most intensive work being carried out.
It then goes on to say that he was an
ideological inspirer, the driving force
and the locomotive of the current very
strong Russia and North Korea relations.
And then it says this is a tremendous
irreparable loss. This ladies and
gentlemen and listeners of the podcast
is a remarkable statement by the Russian
foreign foreign minister. I've never
anything quite so emotive. I don't know
whether this is going to impact North
Korea Russia relations in any way, but
it does sound like the Russian foreign
ministry and the its embassy in North
Korea has taken a hit with the death of
>> Ukraine the latest is an original
podcast from the Telegraph created by
David Nolles. To support our work and
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Ukraine the latest was today produced by
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>> My name is David Nolles. Thank you all
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