This analysis explores Melisandre's unwavering conviction that Stannis Baratheon is Azor Ahai reborn, despite textual evidence and visions suggesting otherwise, by examining her interpretation of prophecy and her personal interpretations of flame visions.
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Why did Melisandre choose Stannis? Jon
and Dany are both much stronger
candidates for Azora High reborn. So why
is she so convinced it's him? Hi
everyone, this is Robert. Welcome to
InDeepge Geek. If you like theories,
background, history, and lore about A
Song of Ice and Fire, The Lord of the
Rings, and The Witcher, this is the
place for you. Welcome.
It seems obvious to us as we read A Song
of Ice and Fire that Stannis is not Azor
Ahai reborn. And Melisandre seems to be
trying very hard to make it look like he
is giving him a fiery looking sword, for
example. But when we finally get a POV
chapter from her perspective in A Dance
with Dragons, it also becomes apparent
that she does genuinely think he is Azor
Ahai reborn, despite all the evidence to
the contrary. And even when she
repeatedly looks into the flames for a
sight of Azor Ahai and sees not Stannis
but Snow with a capital S. So Jon Snow,
she may or may not be aware of it, but
the powers that be in her faith with
access to the same prophecies and seeing
things in the flames magic have also
independently concluded that it is Dany,
not Stannis, who was Azor Ahai reborn
and are throwing their weight behind
her. He hasn't brought any stone dragons
to life. And she had to provide him with
that fake lightbringer to try to
persuade people he was who she said he
was. So why? She doesn't seem
unintelligent and clearly does see true
visions in the flames. So why? What made
her so convinced it is Stannis? Well,
let's start with what she herself says?
Because her logic seems to be based on
two things. her understanding of ancient
prophecy and her interpretation of what
she has seen in the flames. She sets
this out in probably the clearest way
when talking to Davos.
The old maester, she says, looked at
Stannis and saw only a man. You see a
king. You are both wrong. He is the
lord's chosen, the warrior of fire. I
have seen him leading the fight against
the dark. I have seen it in the flames.
The flames do not lie. Else you would
not be here. It is written in prophecy
as well. When the red star bleeds and
the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be
born again amid smoke and salt to wake
dragons out of stone. The bleeding star
has come and gone and dragon stone is
the place of smoke and salt. Stannis
Baratheon is Azor Ahai reborn.
So that is her logic. And let's start
with the prophecy bit. Melisandre is
clearly well read. And although we don't
know huge amounts about her history, we
know a large part of it was in Ashai.
She is Melisandre of Ashai after all.
And Ashai is home to lots of obscure
ancient text and knowledge. So she
clearly knows what to look for when it
comes to Azora High reborn. From what
she said and confirmed by people like
Maester Aean, this includes someone born
amidst salt and smoke, someone whose
coming is heralded by a red comet
blazing across the sky. Or in a slightly
longer version, they will come after a
long summer when the stars bleed and the
cold breath of darkness falls heavy on
the world. Someone associated with
bringing a stone dragon or dragons to
life. Someone who will wield the fiery
sword lightbringer.
For completion's sake, there are a
couple more that seem more attached to
the Targaryen heavy prince that was
promised prophecy. Someone from the line
of Aries II and his wife Raela. someone
to whom belongs the song of ice and
fire. These seem more recent though and
Westerosybased rather than ancient and
from doctrine or Ashai based. So let's
leave them to one side for a moment.
Melisandre certainly seems to have. If
we also put to one side for a moment the
bits of prophecy that are clearly only
able to happen once Azor Ahai has
already been revealed in some way, like
them having the fiery sword
lightbringer, we are actually left with
a very short list of clues to look out
for. Chief among these is the idea of
someone being born or reborn amid salt
and smoke, as well as the long summer,
the red comet, and depending on your
reading, access to some stone dragons to
bring to life. We don't know exactly
when Melisandre started to search for
Azor Ahai reborn, but we do have a rough
idea of when she arrived in Dragonstone,
probably a handful of years before we
meet her in the story. If you want the
nerdy maths here, in a clash with kings,
so the year 299 AC, Littlefinger recalls
Varys telling the small council, quote,
"Some years passed," about her arrival.
Littlefinger was appointed to the small
council around the year 292, so sometime
after that, but a few years before 299,
so 294 or 295 seems reasonable. by which
time summer had been going on for five
or six years. That's already a long
summer by Wester Rosie standards, and
the prophecy talked of a long summer
heralding Azor Ahai reborn. So perhaps
Melisandre felt that the time was right
and she had to get to her mission of
identifying and supporting this new Azor Ahai.
Ahai.
The biggest clue about where she should
go was the salt and smoke bit, and she
decided that this must mean Dragonstone.
To be clear, in the books, Dragonstone
is not considered to be a pleasant place
to live by most people. It is a volcanic
island with steam bursting forth from
rocks, regular storms, and a smoky,
salty, sulfurous atmosphere. Added to
which the castle itself is basically
made of stone dragons. Lots of them.
They didn't really show this on the TV
show, but the architecture there is
very, very dragonheavy. Torch sconces
are shaped like clawed dragon hands.
archways like dragon tails, the kitchen
chimney like a giant dragon snout. The
krenellations are stone dragons rather
than boring square stones. Basically,
there are lots of stone dragons that
Azor Ahai could conceivably bring to
life. All of which makes Dragonstone
seem like a good place to start your
search for Azor Ahai Reborn. Maybe
Melisandre even saw Dragonstone in her
flames. We don't know. And to be fair to
Melisandre, connecting Azor Ahai to
Dragonstone is not just something she
made up. Several other people have come
to the same conclusion. When Rhaegar
thought his son Aegon would be the
prince that was promised, it was partly
because he was born at Dragonstone.
Later, Maester Ammon thinks that it is
evidence that Daenerys is the prince
that was promised because she was born
there. And Banero, the high priest of
Ror in Volantis, thinks the same. At
which point we should probably clarify
that Melisandre thinking these clues
lead to Stannis happens before Dany and
Jon are on anyone's radar. Jon's
Targaryen ancestry is still clearly
hidden and Dany is still years from
hatching those dragon eggs. There are no
obvious candidates out there. Melisandre
seems to be the first or insert your
blood raven conspiracy theory here among
the first to be actively looking for
Azor Ahai reborn and expecting to find
them. So to return to where we were a
moment ago, Dragonstone being the place
of salt and smoke pointing to Azora High
reborn isn't some random thought by
Melisandre. It actually seems to have
been quite a mainstream view among the
prophecy pondering people of Westeros
and Essos. Going there seems to have
been a very reasonable starting point
for Melisandre. So she goes there and
Stannis isn't there. He's in King's
Landing most of the time at that point
as master of ships in his brother
Robert's small council. So she sets
herself to converting people to the
worship of Ror while she waits to see
her champion emerge. This is a huge
success with Stannis's wife Cis the most
high-profile new convert. And during
this time she no doubt looks in the
flames and sees something that convinces
her that the person she is seeking must
be Stannis. What? Well, going back to
what she said to Davos, we read this. I
have seen him leading the fight against
the dark. I have seen it in the flames.
Now, Melisandre is a complex character,
and we have to acknowledge that what she
says is not necessarily what she saw.
One of the big reveals in her POV
chapter is how set she is on seeming all
knowing and powerful all of the time.
This often plays out by her saying
things with certainty when she is, in
truth, not 100% certain. As an example,
we get this exchange with Jon about
another largely unrelated vision she had
in the flames.
I saw towers by the sea, she says,
submerged beneath a black and bloody
tide. That is where the heaviest blow
will fall. Eastwatch asks John. Was it?
Melisandre had seen East Watch by the
sea with King Stannis. That was where
his grace left Queen Ciss and their
daughter Shireen when he assembled his
knights for the march to Castle Black.
The towers in her fire had been
different, but that was off the way with
visions. Yes, East Watch, my lord. So,
there she is confidently asserting that
she saw something that she didn't
actually see. The towers she saw in her
flames were not Eastwatch, but she tells
Jon that they are. So, perhaps that
happened here. She tells Davos she saw
Stannis lead the fight against the dark,
but in reality, she wasn't so sure.
Maybe. But given her clear personal
buyin to this idea, I think there's
actually a good chance that this time
she did see Stannis lead the fight
against the dark as she says. However,
leading the fight against the dark is a
very vague description at the best of
times. But let's imagine that she saw
the most convincing version of that.
Stannis on the wall leading his men
fighting against the others, a flaming
sword in his hand. That's what she saw
and that's why she's convinced it's him.
as well as the salt and smoke thing, we
can understand why on that basis she
might be convinced. So, doesn't that
make him Azor Ahai? Well, no, not
necessarily. Simply put, that could
happen in the story and Stannis still
not be the main Azor Ahai figure in this
drama. Leaving aside for another video
the idea that there might be more than
one Azor Ahai reborn, Jon as Lord
Commander of the Night's Watch has given
Stannis the Night Fort. If he triumphs
at Winterfell, there is every reason to
believe Stannis will head up there next.
And if the others go there, as they
might, he will no doubt fight them. And
Melisandre may have seen that in her
flames. But Jon may also be fighting at
Castle Black, say, with Dragon Glass,
Valyrian Steel, and maybe even the Horn
of Winter. And Dany may also arrive on
Drogon. Stannis could be leading his own
men in the fight against the dark
without being the most important person
in that fight.
Melisandre believes that there was no
one, even in her order, who had her
skill at seeing the secrets half
revealed and half concealed within the
sacred flames. That may well be true.
Again, in her POV chapter, we can see
that she sees many, many different
things in the flames, flashing past her
at dizzying speed. Seeing visions, even
true visions in the flames, is not her
problem. interpreting what she sees is,
as Jon Snow says to her face. A gray
girl on a dying horse, daggers in the
dark, a promised prince born in smoke
and salt. It seems to me that you make
nothing but mistakes, my lady. Where is
Stannis? What of Rattleshirt and his
spear wives? Where is my sister?
John could probably wait for answers
about the gray girl on the dying horse
and daggers in the dark, but his point
is a fair one. Melisandre sees a lot of
true things, but interpretation to real
world advice and guidance is not her
strong point. So, where does all that
leave us? Having decided that Dragon
Stone was the place to look because of
the salt and smoke and stone dragons,
and that the timing, as the long summer
drew to a close, was right, Melisandre
will then perhaps have seen Stannis in
her flames, seemingly leading the fight
against the dark. Surely, he was who she
was seeking. Then he unexpectedly became
rightful king of the seven kingdoms from
some people's perspective anyway, which
seems pretty important. Then as the red
comet flew overhead, Stannis accepted,
or at least decided to go with her lead
that he was Azor Ahai reborn. Everything
seemed to add up. Then to add to all of
that, he alone of all the lords of
Westeros understood and answered the
Nights Watch's call to fight against the
others, leading an army up to the wall.
the only hero to do so. So yes, it makes
sense from her perspective. And once she
had decided that, she seems to have been
the kind of person to just bank that
idea and not challenge it and let
everything else she saw and experience
arrange itself around that
unchallengeable fact. Stannis was Azor
Ahai reborn. I'm sure psychologists
watching this will have a term for this
kind of certainty. Everything else had
to be interpreted in that light. There's
certainly some confirmation bias going
on at the very least. In practice, she
then decided that as Stannis was Azor
Ahai Reborn, others needed to believe
it, too, which led to her forcing the
Lightbringer issue, giving him a flaming
sword she probably knew wasn't
Lightbringer to make it look more like
he was the thing she thought he was.
Azor Ahai must have Lightbrer, so she
would provide it. The same goes for the
turning stone dragons to life idea that
she tried to force as well with the
blood of Edric Storm. From our vantage
point across the entire story, seeing
how Dany seems to have fulfilled
prophecy, including turning stone dragon
eggs into real dragons, and Jon probably
will too soon, it seems rather obvious
that there are better candidates. And
indeed, it seems like we shouldn't trust
prophecy completely either. But from
Melisandre's perspective, all the clues
do indeed lead to Stannis. It will take
something spectacular to make her change
her mind.
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