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Rally Strong or Bull Trap 🪤 Predicting these Stocks Next Move #tsla #poet #sofi | Stocks with Josh | YouTubeToText
YouTube Transcript: Rally Strong or Bull Trap 🪤 Predicting these Stocks Next Move #tsla #poet #sofi
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The content analyzes recent stock market trends, focusing on SoFi's strong performance driven by its new crypto custodian status, and provides technical outlooks for SoFi, SPY, and POET, while also discussing broader market sentiment and trading strategies.
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So, November's pick was announced
yesterday, a few days into the month,
and it absolutely ripped today. I'm
talking about SoFi. I gave it to you
guys right underneath $31, and this
morning, it popped up to right
underneath $33. Now, I'm going to give
you fresh technicals because this is
going to be a a dayby-day if then
scenario. I'm going to give you my
raised stop loss and the next price that
we've got to get above to trigger the
bigger move higher. This is absolutely
the stock is trending beautifully
higher. It's outperformed the rest of
the market in many ways. It didn't
really pull back in November like a lot
of other stocks have. Uh big tech of
course has been pulling back and still
pulling back. Today is another red day
for big tech. SoFi the financials as a
category are doing well and SoFi in
particular had a jump up today on the
same news that I had shared with you
yesterday was that they have now
becoming a crypto custodian. You can buy
and hold your Bitcoin and Ethereum on
the SoFi platform. They're the very
first bank that has officially entered
into this space and uh so it's
distinguishing them. I'm going to go
into the SoFi trade and I'm going to
give you the day trader view of SoFi and
the long-term investors view of SoFi.
We're going to have to break down the
spy. The spy, it's not the mag 7 that's
bringing the spy up. The mag seven are
cooling off, but the spy has continued
to climb. It's like the markets getting
some breadth. If you the term breadth
means that there are more companies
participating in the up move. Of course,
since April, we have been trending
higher month after month. And I'm going
to take you into the spy chart because I
need you to see that the markets are
extremely bullish right now. Volume and
price action are absolutely indicating
that the markets are still trending
higher. And so at bare minimum, I'd
caution you against loading up on the
short plays or the inverse plays. Now,
those are the ones that I've been making
the most money on. But what I'm not
doing is going in deep and loading up
into positions that I'm holding
overnight. where I'm making all of my
money has been in the A+ scalp trade
setups that I teach and provide in the
stocks with Josh, a community,
protrading community called Chart Goat
University. We traded them live
together. It was a very successful
session. We had a beautiful 55% win
right at the end of that session and an
earlier 30 to 40% win. a great time. And
uh if you are tired of trading alone or
you need to better understand the
charts, do it in a friendly, safe
community. We've got a number of Crown
Traders. We've got eight live trade
sessions right now and five uh teaching
sessions each and every week. Come check
it out. It's the name of the show,
Stocks with Josh. Name of the website, www.stockswithjosh.com.
www.stockswithjosh.com.
Welcome to Wall Street. This is the
Stocks with Josh show. Thank you for
dropping a heart in the comments,
hitting the like, and hit the subscribe
to get December's play. Now, let's talk
about SoFi being November's pick. I gave
it to you yesterday and the price
exploded. Now, at any given time, post
market, pre-market this morning, if you
had taken a position and it continued to
rise the way that it did, it did
something that makes trading and making
money on Wall Street so much less
stressful. It went up after I gave the
alert, which means that once it once you
buy in and it pumped the way it did a
couple dollars, it allows you to put
your stop loss in at your entry price so
that you don't have to lose anything. If
it comes back and kicks you out, the
only thing that you might have lost is a
little bit of time, but your capital was
kept safe and secure. Now, I'm going to
continue to hold my SoFi uh as we
continue to go forward, but ultimately
it'll be my stop loss that determines
whether I get out of my swing trade
position. I'm going to go over that with
you guys today. Uh but I just want to
let you know, we're still holding this.
It looks good. We're going to go into
the charts. I'm going to give you guys
an update on those technicals. We're
going to go over the spy. I'm going to
give you a sneak peek at the Tesla chart
because I want to make a prediction over
there that I broke down in greater depth
in the live trade session this morning.
And we've got to talk briefly about
Poet. P O E T. Now, this is an
interesting company. I'm going to read
you what they do because it's so
freaking technical I can't commit it to
memory. Poet Technologies builds an
optical interposer platform that
integrates lasers, modulators, and
drivers with silicone photonics to make
cheaper, power efficient optical
transceivers for data center AI
networks. So, these guys are part of the
equipment game. It's very high-tech and
sophisticated stuff, but I want to point
out that this stock, of course, in the
last year has traded under a dollar and
it ran up nearly to $10. Now, it's
pulled back tomorrow morning. They're
going to report earnings and Wall Street
is expecting a negative 9 to a1 earnings
per share. So, if it's worse than that,
then they're going to find themselves in
trouble. The stock right now is sitting
on support. It's in a very vulnerable
place in the sense that it could easily
bounce off a surprise revenue earn or
some uh new data or some better forward
guidance. It could pop. But if Wall
Street doesn't like something that they
say, it's also in a vulnerable spot
where it could drop quite a bit. Let me
take you guys briefly into the poet
chart. I'm going to give you guys some
new trend lines that'll help you
navigate your trade plan. I suggest you
develop a trade plan. I'm not giving you
one. I'm giving you technicals today,
but you've got to put that together with
a trade plan so that you can make money
on these types of plays. I want to
highlight the long-term opportunity for
Poet. What originally attracted me to
this company was that it's an AI stock,
but it had this huge, massive
institutional buyin down here. You see
in volume, this was a buy signal for me,
but we've obviously gotten some pretty
ugly candles recently. This massive wick
shows uh the sellers took control of the
move and now we've got a red engulfing
candle that brought the stock price all
the way back to $5. Now the truth is
tomorrow morning it has to run and it's
a buy if the price gets above six
because if the price pushes above six,
we're looking at monthly candles, by the
way. If the price pushes above six, then
that can bring us all the way back up to
the recent high and it could allow us to
see continuation up to $12. So we could
have a 100% opportunity in Poet.
However, obviously this shows a lot of
local weakness. I gave it the PSMV score
and it came out at a $410. So it is
bearish leaning. I just want to
highlight to you guys that this stock
was under a dollar and I think it would
be attractive again to me at around $4
or a move above $6. That's how I'm
viewing poet right now. All right, I'm
going to take you guys into the SPY and
a quick peek at Tesla and then we'll
jump into SoFi here in just a minute.
But as I said at the beginning of the
video, even though we've been seeing a
lot of red and it feels like the markets
are crashing because big tech is the one
that's getting hit the hardest, the fact
is the markets are holding up very well.
And I think you'll see that by looking
at the monthly spy chart. Let's go check
that out. All right, two things that are
super important. The trigger for a
continuation higher and a brand new high
in the month of November is 68590.
Roughly 686. And you can see that this
candle has gotten quite a bit of a wick
on the bottom. That's very bullish. And
it's in a series of 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
bullish candles. And so at the moment,
this is not falling apart. We're very
very close to all-time highs. And if
this candle turns green, I have to
imagine that we're going to get a huge
blowoff top moment because so far we
don't have a single bearish candle on
this chart. I also want to highlight to
you that we are not seeing volume going
down as price is climbing. That would be
bearish divergence. We're actually
seeing volume go up as price is
climbing, which shows that the momentum
is building. Now, let me just make a
case for the bears real quick. If we end
up pushing briefly higher and we end up
coming back and this month largely ends
up being a dogee which is a plus sign
candle. Dogee is a Japanese word that
means same as the opening and the close
are the same. This would be then setting
up on the very high time frame of the
monthly chart as to be an evening star
which is a very bearish pattern. And if
it were to play out that way and we got
in the month of December a flush down
candle that closed beneath this previous
September candle's opening price. So if
we close down here at around 662, that
would signal a move bringing us all the
way back
to right around 640. So I wanted you
guys to be aware from the bears. If
you're a bear, that's how we would get
to 640 if this candle doesn't turn green
on us. Now, let's take a quick peek at
Tesla. I just want to show you that
we've got this uh this is always a
bearish structure. Ascending channels
often break to the downside, but we're
still within the channel and but we are
beneath the bottom half. And as I always
say, top half of every pattern belongs
to the bulls. The bottom half belongs to
the bears, which means that even though
we are still up at these elevated price
levels, we're in the hands of the bears
right now. We've hit the top and we've
retreated and very likely we're going to
have to come back and hit this bottom.
Where's that bottom? Watch for a move to
416. And that's our next best hope for a
bullish Tesla to bounce. It needs to
pull back to that 416 and bounce. Right
now, it's been largely moving sideways.
And I do see the possibility for that to
come down to 416. I don't at the moment
expect that level to break. But if it
did, the next level beneath that would
be the psychological level of 400 and
then beneath 400. The only support on
Tesla is all the way back there at 360.
Now, the macro would have to unwind for
Tesla to fall apart like that. I am only
now predicting that in the near-term
future that we're going to come back to
at least that 416 on Tesla. Let's see
how that turns out. Let me know in the
comments what your opinion is. If you
think Tesla is getting ready to break
down, as I'm suggesting, minimally, not
significantly, or if you think it's uh
ready to rip higher with the rest of the
market. As we just talked about with the
spy, if if we hold this level and that
monthly candle turns green, we could get
a powerful move. It would bring all the
bulls back to the market and people
would be feeling like they missed buying
another dip. I think the markets are
undecided, but you have both views with
the analysis I just gave you. Okay, we
came to talk today about SoFi again, and
I'm going to give you the short-term
view and the long-term view. Let's start
off with the short-term view. Let me
take you into the charts. Okay, I want
you guys to be aware of of some
bullishness and bearishness. We are
climbing nicely off of this recent dip.
Everything is healthy about the Sofi
move. However, we have recently, just
today, established what could be a
double top. Double tops are bearish.
They get confirmed if the valley of the
two peaks gets crossed. And so, the real
danger zone for Tesla moving forward is
$28. And I had mentioned that in a
recent video. 2750 is what needed to
hold as support. Now, since we popped
$3, you can see that I've raised the
stop loss to 30 bucks. But if we end up
closing a daily candle beneath 28, you
take the neckline of the double top and
you put that at the valley of the double
top. And look, that gets us all the way
back here to 23. And uh again, this
would be if the markets had a larger
pullback. If we can close a candle above
3204, we're going to squeeze to $36.
That's the shortterm trade. Let me
remind you, stop loss now raised to $30.
Now, let's take a look at long-term
SoFi. For long-term SoFi, I just want to
highlight what an incredible move we've
got. The volume here, and October's
volume being the highest, and November's
volume has not been disappointing. It's
continued to climb. And so, this is
absolutely in a parabolic move right
now, and it's not slowed down. There's
no red candles here. So, as a long-term
SoFi holder, this feels very, very good.
However, you can see that we're at a fib
level. It's this one fib level, and then
if we cross above that, and that's
largely at $32. If we cross above that,
we get all the way up to the next fib
level, which is $38. And then the other
thing I want to highlight, I've talked
about it many times, is that secular
trends die in the golden pocket, and
that's way up here between 46 and 56.
And this would be the ultimate target
for SoFi in the course of the next six
months. This is where I'm looking for it
to go. You know, this has been one of
those stocks. I can't promise you that
tomorrow it'll be higher. Even though I
did the video yesterday and today the
stock was $2 higher. But what I can tell
you is that it's extremely strong. It
passed all of my tests for price
structure, momentum, and volume. I
reviewed that in yesterday's video. And
I don't see why this journey up on SoFi
right now wouldn't end in the golden
pocket at that higher level. And so this
is one that every red candle has been a
buying opportunity and I think it'll
continue to be that way. But as I said
in regards to the trader view, you got
to watch specifically that $30 level
because that's our stop-loss level for
those who are trading especially
short-term options. And if that gets
broken, then we want a beautiful,
healthy pullback to $23 where I would
load right back up into a larger uh
skips and leaps and go long again. So,
I'm happy with the SoFi play. It's
continuing to perform well. If you
jumped on it the minute that I shared
the play from yesterday, you made some
money and now the price is above your
entry. I hope that that you have made
some money on SoFi. Let me know if you
think it's going to remain a top pick
for November or if the markets are going
to just turn around and pull everything
back. We're still in a time of
indecision. Big tech is what's soft
right now, but the Dow and the other
companies in the S&P are holding things
up. And if Nvidia signals that the AI
trade is alive and well, then big tech
will come back and join the up party.
Let me know what you think. I'll see you
in the next video. Don't sleep on the
stocks with Josh Discord. We made money
today in the live trade session. We did
extremely well and I plan on doing it
again in the next live trade session.
Peace and blessings, my friends. I'll
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