0:02 When alt season, every cycle has a
0:05 rhythm. And if history is right, we're
0:08 headed straight into the final act. Our
0:11 guest today is Ben Cowan, the founder of
0:13 Into the Cryptoverse and one of the most
0:16 respected analysts in the space. He has
0:19 a PhD in nuclear engineering with a
0:22 background in computational modeling.
0:24 And that's why his signals matter and
0:27 why I wanted him on right now. He says
0:30 the data is screaming the same thing it
0:33 always does right before a cycle top.
0:36 Normally cycles end in Q4 of the post
0:38 having year, right? So that's coming up
0:41 relatively soon. Uh if you look at you
0:42 know the last few cycles, this was the
0:44 fourth quarter of 2013, the fourth
0:47 quarter of 2017 and then the fourth
0:50 quarter of 2021. And so it at least
0:52 stands to reason that we might have a
0:54 top sometime, you know, in the fourth
0:55 quarter of the year.
0:58 So there it is. Ben thinks Q4 is where
1:01 the fireworks hit. But this cycle has a
1:03 twist because while Bitcoin's been
1:05 grinding higher, retail, well, they
1:07 really haven't showed up.
1:09 Retail never really came back. Um, that
1:10 doesn't mean we don't have retail
1:12 investors. We just have the same retail
1:14 investors for the most part that we had
1:18 back four years ago. A lot of this cycle
1:20 seems to be more like, you know, you
1:22 could argue ETF driven, institutionally driven.
1:23 driven.
1:25 That's exactly what's playing out right
1:27 now. Wall Street is carrying this market
1:29 while the average investor stays
1:31 sidelined. And before we get to alt
1:34 season, Ben says there's one more
1:37 rotation and it isn't the one most
1:39 people expect.
1:40 I think people are missing a step. I I
1:42 think so it was it was first it was
1:46 Bitcoin to ETH, right? And and and now
1:48 right now you're getting
1:50 I'll make you guys watch to find out.
1:53 But that's the move that lights the fuse
1:55 for the parabolic altcoin runs
1:58 everyone's waiting for. And if you're
2:00 betting October is when alts take off.
2:03 Well guys, Ben has a different read. You
2:04 know, when you look at Bitcoin
2:07 dominance, normally it reverses course
2:10 in the month of September and then for
2:13 it to explode higher in October. And so
2:15 that's the reason why I still think the
2:17 alt season calls are premature.
2:20 So if October is setting up as Bitcoin's
2:24 month, when alt season, guys, here's the
2:26 hard truth. Historically, the real alt
2:29 season doesn't arrive until one key
2:32 event triggers it. And Ben lays it out
2:36 clearly. in order to get an alt season
2:38 like what people remember as alt season
2:43 back in like late 2017 late 2021 is you
2:46 need today Ben reveals his full playbook
2:48 for how the cycle plays out and how he's
2:51 positioning to maximize profits. So guys
2:54 without further ado let's bring on the
2:56 man, the myth, the legend, Benjamin Cowan.
2:57 Cowan. [Music]
2:59 [Music]
3:01 Ben, welcome back to the show. Good to
3:04 have you here. uh how's it going? And uh
3:07 first question is, you know, where are
3:09 we in this market? It feels like one of
3:11 the most boring bull markets uh we've
3:13 ever seen. But just curious, generally
3:14 speaking, you know, where are we right now?
3:15 now?
3:17 Yeah, thanks for having me. Pleasure to
3:21 be here as as always. Um this has been
3:23 somewhat of a boring cycle. I think I I
3:26 think mainly it's felt boring because a
3:27 lot of altcoins haven't really
3:30 participated as much as, you know, like
3:32 what people remember. Um, but since the
3:34 last time we spoke, we at least now have
3:36 Ethereum participating. I think last
3:39 time we spoke, Ethereum was, you know,
3:42 nowhere to be found, right? In terms of
3:43 uh even flirting with the all-time
3:45 highs. So, we've at least seen we've
3:47 seen Ethereum join in. I can at least
3:50 share my screen and and and perhaps give
3:53 some insight into where I think we are.
3:54 But, you know, it's it's really anyone's
3:56 guess. I mean, when I when I think about
3:59 the cycles, I I think about, you know, a
4:00 lot of repetitive behavior. And if you
4:03 look at like the ROI from the low, you
4:05 know, this cycle is getting potentially
4:08 close to the end. Uh, normally cycles
4:11 end in Q4 of the post having year,
4:12 right? So that's coming up relatively
4:15 soon. Uh, if you look at, you know, the
4:16 last few cycles, this was the fourth
4:19 quarter of 2013, the fourth quarter of
4:21 2017, and then the fourth quarter of
4:25 2021. And so, I mean, it at least stand
4:26 nothing's a sure thing, right? No one
4:27 actually knows what's going to happen,
4:30 but it at least stands to reason that we
4:32 might have a top sometime, you know, in
4:35 the fourth quarter of the year. Um, and
4:36 of course, it is sort of, you know,
4:37 raised the question, well, what about
4:39 altcoins, right? When are altcoins going
4:41 to participate or are they going to
4:43 participate? Normally, you know, when
4:46 you do get an alt season, that's us
4:48 that's usually a sign that the cycle's
4:50 over, right? So by the time you by the
4:53 time you get that it it usually means
4:56 that the Bitcoin's bull market is over.
4:58 Um I think this I think one of the other
4:59 reasons why this one has felt a lot more
5:01 boring is also because we have
5:03 diminishing returns from one cycle to
5:05 another, right? Like every cycle gives
5:08 us slightly smaller returns. It's still
5:10 great returns. I mean Bitcoin, you know,
5:12 started the cycle at 15K and now it's,
5:15 you know, it's already hit 124. um you
5:17 you're already talking about a 7 to 8x
5:19 move from the low which for stock for
5:20 the stock market that would be a great
5:24 return over 3 years. Um but I think a
5:25 lot of people in crypto you know they're
5:27 so accustomed to chasing those higher
5:29 gains and and it's been a more boring
5:32 cycle because a lot of the gains the the
5:34 the gains to be to be had were just in
5:37 Bitcoin and you know I I think that's
5:38 kind of the hard part about this cycle.
5:41 It's mo it's mostly been a a a a Bitcoin
5:43 maxi cycle for the most part with a few
5:44 exceptions. cuz we've seen some altcoins
5:46 do well. Um but yeah, that's where I
5:48 think we are. I mean, and and also one
5:50 other thing when when you look at how
5:53 cycles finish, what normally happens, uh
5:55 is you get a a local top in August and
5:57 then a local low in September and then
5:58 you go into the market cycle top, right?
6:01 So in 2021, we set a high here like in
6:03 late August, early September. We then
6:05 set the local low in late September and
6:07 then we went into the market cycle top
6:10 in Q4. Same thing in 2017, right? We set
6:12 a high in August, a low in September,
6:15 and then the market cycle top was in Q4.
6:17 Same thing in 2013, a high in August, a
6:19 low in September, and then the market
6:22 cycle top in Q4. And so when you look at
6:23 this cycle, you you actually can see
6:25 that it's the same thing, right? I mean,
6:27 you have a high in August, a low in
6:30 September. Um, and and there's a good
6:31 chance the low for September is already
6:34 in. uh if it's not then I mean it could
6:36 go a little bit lower and then
6:38 potentially going up into whatever you
6:40 know the the final top is. I mean I I
6:42 think it would be prudent as an investor
6:47 to at least entertain the idea that 2026
6:51 will we'll see Bitcoin retracing some uh
6:53 and then hopefully just gearing up for
6:56 another good year in in 2027. It's just
6:58 kind of the way the cycle's worked and I
6:59 still subscribe to the idea if it's not
7:02 broke don't try to fix it.
7:06 Yeah. So, okay. So, but what about uh
7:07 yeah, I'll get into that a little bit
7:10 more in just a second, but what about
7:14 the altcoins? Do do we think that uh you
7:16 know do we think that if we continue to
7:19 go higher in this Q4 that we're going to
7:20 get retail coming back and we're going
7:22 to get or you know I know that you
7:26 you're mostly into charts but
7:29 are we just seeing like a not enough
7:32 capital in the retail markets to to give
7:34 us an altcoin season or people broke or
7:36 what's going on? Well, I think one of
7:38 the reasons this cycle feels different
7:40 too is because a lot of the retail
7:42 investors that people keep talking I
7:43 mean to some degree we are retail
7:45 investors, right? But like in order to
7:49 see more retail investors come in um
7:51 you know like we're not seeing that. I
7:52 mean this is the uh this chart so shows
7:56 the social risk and and you can see like
7:57 this kind of explains how everyone's
7:59 feeling, right? Like everyone feels like
8:01 this cycle sucks and one of the reasons
8:02 is because you don't really have a lot
8:05 of new participants. um you know this
8:07 orange line basically when it's up high
8:10 it shows that like retail is flooding in
8:11 and when it's down low it shows that
8:13 like retail really doesn't care and
8:16 we're now almost in Q4 of the post
8:19 having year and retail never really came
8:21 back um that doesn't mean we don't have
8:22 retail investors we just have the same
8:25 retail investors for the most part uh
8:28 that we had back four years ago a lot of
8:31 this cycle seems to be more like you
8:33 know you could argue ETF driven
8:37 institutional driven. Um, and I I've
8:41 been a big believer that one way you
8:43 could get retail to potentially come
8:45 back, and again, there's no guarantees,
8:47 but a lot of people while they while we
8:49 cheer on Bitcoin, and I mean, I, you
8:50 know, I've been, you know, sort of the
8:52 Bitcoin dominance train for a long time,
8:54 but while a lot of people watch Bitcoin,
8:56 a lot of people that like watch YouTube
8:58 and whatnot, they actually have larger
9:01 positions in altcoins than in Bitcoin.
9:03 So, even if Bitcoin were to go up to
9:06 like 150K, a lot of retail investors
9:08 aren't going to care because they don't
9:09 actually own Bitcoin, right? They want
9:11 to see their altcoins go up. I I think
9:13 one of the things that you're watching
9:15 right now or that's worth watching is
9:17 Ethereum because what I've sort of
9:20 thought for a while is that in order to
9:24 get an alt season like what people
9:27 remember as alt season back in like late
9:32 2017, late 2021 is you need Ethereum to
9:34 really durably break to new all-time
9:35 highs, right? I think that's what you
9:38 need. And I I said for a while that the
9:40 path for Ethereum to get there this
9:43 cycle is that, you know, it would first
9:46 go to its lower regression band, right,
9:50 which it did back in April. Um, then it
9:51 would go to new all-time highs, but on
9:53 the first attempt of the all-time highs,
9:55 it would actually get rejected. And I I
9:58 think that's what's causing that all see
9:59 those all season calls to remain
10:02 premature is because you're still not
10:04 looking at an Ethereum that is
10:05 sustaining new all-time highs,
10:08 right? Um, you could still see Ethereum
10:12 wick above 5K, but I I still am a strong
10:16 believer in the idea that until Ethereum
10:19 tags this 21week EMA, um, it could be
10:23 now uh, at 3,600 or it could be, you
10:24 know, 3 weeks from now at a higher
10:27 price, maybe closer to 4K. But I still
10:29 am a believer in the idea that you need
10:32 Ethereum to sort of check back in kind
10:33 of like it did over here in June, right?
10:35 You see how it checked back in with it
10:37 and then it just exploded higher.
10:38 I think ultimately that's what's going
10:42 to happen for Ethereum is at some point
10:44 over the next say 3 to 4 weeks
10:46 it will check in with that 20we SMA or
10:49 the 21week EMA and then go into its own
10:51 rally into the market cycle top. And by
10:52 the way the same thing has happened
10:55 every cycle right I mean look at 2021
10:56 Ethereum checked in with that that
10:58 moving average in September late or you
11:01 know late September early October. Same
11:03 thing in 2017. Also the same thing in
11:06 2020 in September. So that doesn't mean
11:08 that Bitcoin necessarily has to get as
11:10 large of a correction. I think Bitcoin
11:11 already did get a large I mean look at
11:14 Bitcoin. It already dropped to its
11:15 20week moving average, right? It already
11:19 dropped down there. Um but I I I think I
11:21 I think you're going to see Ethereum
11:23 eventually do the same thing. I think
11:25 it's going to scare some people and then
11:28 hopefully after that it can get a
11:30 stronger rally out of that. And then the
11:32 last thing I'll say uh before we go to
11:34 the next question is you know when you
11:37 look at Bitcoin dominance normally it
11:39 reverses course in the month of
11:40 September right so like if you look at
11:43 like September 2020 dominance was at the
11:45 same level and then it went up into Q4.
11:47 If you look at September and 2017
11:50 dominance also bottomed in September and
11:52 then went up into Q4. And so that's the
11:54 reason why I still think the alt season
11:55 calls are premature because I think
11:57 Bitcoin dominance is going to get
12:00 another rally here late September and
12:02 through the month of October. And so,
12:04 you know, if we get an alt season this
12:06 cycle, my guess is that it won't happen
12:09 until after October if we're going to
12:10 get one, right? I think it'll be after
12:12 October because again, I don't think you
12:15 can get an alt season without a durable
12:17 all-time high by Ethereum. And I don't
12:18 think you're going to get a durable
12:20 all-time high for Ethereum until, you
12:22 know, October, right? That So, that's
12:24 kind of the way I see things playing out.
12:24 out.
12:26 I I was looking at your ex account
12:28 earlier and I scrolled down. I think it
12:30 was like last week or something like
12:34 that. Maybe you you posted the the
12:36 Bitcoin dominance. I think it was like a
12:37 heat map or something like that. I don't
12:38 know if it's on coin glass, but I I
12:39 thought that it seemed like Bitcoin
12:43 dominance dropped in October typically.
12:45 So, yeah. So, it was on the website. So
12:47 monthly returns and basically the idea
12:50 is we're going to look at uh metrics. So
12:52 we're going to look at Bitcoin
12:55 dominance. So what you'll notice is in
12:57 in October Bitcoin dominance normally
12:59 goes up, right? So like in 2024
13:02 dominance went up 5%, 2023 dominance
13:04 went up 8%. So the average move of
13:07 Bitcoin dominance in October is about
13:11 5%. Um in fact dominance tends to go up
13:13 the most in the month of October.
13:16 Okay, that was That's that's November
13:17 then it's red, right?
13:19 It's November that it typically is red.
13:22 Okay. So, yeah. So, I'm looking for for
13:24 dominance to,
13:26 you know, really concretely form a low
13:28 in September and the low could very well
13:31 already be in um for dominance and then
13:35 for it to explode higher in October and
13:37 then I could see it then falling in in
13:39 the month of November.
13:43 So, so you're like, do you have any
13:46 other kind of
13:48 rationale behind the other than if it
13:50 ain't if it ain't broke, don't fix it
13:53 kind of logic for why we likely will
13:55 have, you know, the cycle come to an end
13:58 at the end of the year. Uh you got guys
14:00 like Ral Powell and Arthur Hayes talking
14:01 about how you know things like the
14:03 liquidity injection that's coming from
14:04 all the stimulus or from the increased
14:07 debt ceiling beautiful bill Fed cutting
14:10 rates you know over the next year these
14:13 kind of tailwinds that they believe
14:14 potentially would draw out the cycle in
14:17 2026. Um you don't see that happening.
14:21 Uh what are your thoughts there? So, I
14:23 mean, it's possible that uh certain
14:26 cryptocurrencies could go up in 2026.
14:28 Like, I mean, if you look at the 2017
14:31 cycle, Bitcoin topped in Q4, but
14:32 Ethereum actually did not top until
14:35 January of 2026. Uh, and then there were
14:37 altcoins that continued to do well even
14:40 through like April, you know, just like
14:42 last cycle, like we saw Luna doing
14:45 really, really well into 2022, but it
14:47 still I mean, it ended up, you know, we
14:50 know it eventually happened, right? Um,
14:53 so it's possible that some parts of the
14:57 market could do well uh even into 2026,
14:59 especially those that maybe didn't do as
15:02 well. You know, the the coins that were
15:04 um, you know, didn't really participate
15:10 as much so far. It's possible, but I I I
15:13 think there is a decent chance that the
15:18 top will occur um in 2025. If if it
15:20 doesn't, I'm fine with that. I mean,
15:22 normally what I do is I, you know, if if
15:24 I hold any altcoins, I at least
15:26 consolidate the altcoins back to Bitcoin
15:29 before the midterm year or sometime
15:30 early on in the midterm year because
15:32 even if I have to weather the Bitcoin
15:34 bare market, Bitcoin normally gets to
15:36 all-time highs before altcoins do. And
15:38 yeah, this cycle, you know, prove that
15:39 again. Um,
15:42 but I I think the reasoning for it like
15:43 if there could be a couple of things,
15:46 right? You know, one one reason could be
15:48 that longend rates like the long end of
15:50 the yield curve could go higher as we go
15:53 into 2026. And I think that could have
15:55 negative effects on the on the
15:57 cryptocurrency market. You know, if you
16:00 look at at the 10-year yield, um, it
16:02 really went up a lot after the Fed cut
16:04 rates last year. I think a lot of people
16:06 think that the Fed cutting rates means
16:08 that the long end goes down, but you
16:09 know, the Fed cut rates here in
16:12 September 2024 and right after that, the
16:13 long end, the 10-year yield went from
16:18 3.6% all the way up to um all the way up
16:21 to like 4.8. And I I think if the long
16:24 end my my base case for the 10-year is
16:25 that it's going to at least sweep that
16:28 high from October 2023
16:29 uh before the business cycle, you know,
16:32 potentially comes to an end. Um so that
16:34 could be one catalyst. The other thing
16:36 to to to watch out for and and it still
16:38 hasn't been an issue and it and it still
16:40 might not be uh but we saw the labor
16:43 market again we haven't really seen
16:45 layoffs pick up. Initial claims did go
16:47 up a little bit this past week but it's
16:49 just it's just one data point. Hopefully
16:52 that goes away um because going into you
16:55 know uh that type of move where you see
16:56 like layoffs picking up that's not fun
16:58 for anyone. No.
16:59 Um and that that would be kind of
17:02 brutal. But if you look, you know, if
17:03 you look at like the unemployment rate,
17:06 you can see that it it is starting to to
17:08 to move higher. And usually when when
17:11 the unemployment rate starts to move up,
17:13 that's when Bitcoin then pulls back
17:15 some, right? So, if you look at if you
17:18 were just like overlay Bitcoin uh with
17:20 the unemployment rate, you'll see that a
17:22 lot of the the longer consolidation
17:25 periods this cycle coincided to with it
17:28 to when um the unemployment rate was
17:29 heading higher because it was like that
17:31 uncertainty you could argue that that
17:32 sort of led to the some of those
17:35 pullbacks. So, if you look here, you can
17:38 see that the unemployment rate in 2024,
17:40 right, it started to go up right here.
17:42 Mhm. And that was when Bitcoin was, you
17:45 know, struggling, right? Um, and then
17:46 over here when the unemployment rate was
17:49 going up, that was when Bitcoin was
17:51 struggling a little bit. So, if the
17:53 unemployment rate starts to go higher in
17:56 2026, I I could see I could see that
17:58 being a thing. But remember, the good
18:00 news is that with dim even if we do have
18:01 a bare market next year, the good news
18:03 is that with diminishing returns
18:05 normally comes diminishing losses,
18:07 right? So the draw down, if there is
18:10 one, it shouldn't be as bad as prior
18:12 cycles. I mean, I'm expecting like I
18:15 would expect maybe like a 70% drop plus
18:18 or minus 5%. Um, and the reason I say
18:19 that is because if you just go through
18:21 all of the history of Bitcoin and that
18:23 could that's from whatever the top is,
18:24 right? I'm not saying it has to be from
18:28 that level today, right? The top is um
18:29 but you know, if you just go through the
18:31 history of these Bitcoin bare markets,
18:34 the first one was about a 94% draw down.
18:37 The next one was about 87%.
18:39 The next one was about 84 and then last
18:42 one was about 77. So you can see they're
18:44 getting a little bit more manageable. So
18:47 I like I would say maybe a 70% draw down
18:48 from whatever the all-time high ends up
18:52 being is is reasonable. Um again, does
18:54 it have to happen? No. But you know,
18:56 history would at least caution us to at
18:59 least believe that it might. I I heard
19:02 you mention the the business cycle and
19:04 you know one of the other uh guests that
19:06 I that uh was really big on that was uh
19:09 Henrik Zeberg uh when he he's really
19:12 kind of leaning into that. Uh you know
19:14 he thinks that um that's what he's
19:15 paying attention to thinking that we're
19:17 going to come into kind of an everything
19:19 bubble collapse in the next two months
19:22 or so. Um what what are your thoughts on
19:24 kind of the business cycle versus kind
19:28 of the four-year Bitcoin cycle?
19:29 Yeah, it's tough to time that stuff
19:32 because like, you know, you could have
19:34 you could have called for a recession
19:35 every year for the last four years and
19:38 it still hasn't happened, right? Um and
19:40 and and one of the indicators that would
19:42 even suggest that it could I mean, look,
19:44 it could happen in 2026. Like I'm not
19:46 going to say that it can't, but one of
19:47 the one of the really interesting
19:49 metrics this cycle has been the
19:53 comparisons with the dot era uh business
19:57 cycle. But not not necessar I mean
19:59 what's interesting is if you look at the
20:02 S&P 500 divided by the money supply,
20:06 this cycle is is mapping the dot cycle
20:07 perfectly. And it kind of makes sense
20:10 because you know during the dot era we
20:12 had internet companies. No one knew how
20:13 the internet was going to change
20:15 everything and now no one knows how AI
20:17 is going to affect everything but this
20:19 metric while I mean while comparing it
20:22 with the dot obviously sounds bad but I
20:23 mean like we know what ended up
20:25 happening but if you look at it you know
20:28 the move that the S&P divided by M2 had
20:30 starting from 1996
20:32 into the peak it's almost an identical
20:34 move like if you take it from the low
20:37 here right like even that 20% drop right
20:40 there is is is nearly identical right
20:42 like it's it's So you have you sort of
20:44 have this this move first, right? You
20:47 get that draw down and then you get so
20:49 that's like a 10% drop then you get the
20:51 20% drop, right? And that's what we got
20:53 in April, right? That's what that's what
20:55 sent Ethereum to the regression band.
20:57 Now if you look at this, you could see
21:00 how there could be a correction into
21:02 early 2026, right? because this here
21:05 would be early 2026, but there is a
21:07 chance that the music continues to play,
21:09 right, for for a while longer. And and
21:12 you know, maybe maybe the business cycle
21:14 doesn't actually end until say 2027 or
21:16 2028, right? Like no one actually knows.
21:19 Again, this this chart would suggest
21:21 that it could go on longer. So, if if
21:22 you made me if you made me play
21:24 Deadpool's advocate against the
21:26 four-year cycle, um I would say, well,
21:29 Bitcoin moves a lot closer with with,
21:31 you know, the NASDAQ and the S&P today
21:34 than it ever has in the past. Therefore,
21:36 maybe things could, you know, play out
21:40 differently. But I I feel like at the
21:41 current time, I'm going to have to just
21:43 go with look, you're probably going to
21:45 have a bare market for for crypto next
21:49 year. Um, if anything can hold on next
21:50 year and do well, it'll probably be
21:53 Bitcoin, right? Like if if you told me,
21:54 you know, if you could only pick one
21:56 cryptocurrency to do the best in 2026,
21:57 which one would it be? I'd probably say
21:58 Bitcoin. Yeah. Um,
21:59 Um,
22:02 so my strategy, what I would say is by,
22:04 you know, by the end of this year or
22:08 January at the absolute latest, history
22:10 would say it's a good idea to get out of
22:13 altcoins at least. Right. At least. And
22:14 that way, you know, if there is a
22:18 Bitcoin bare market, so be it. Um,
22:19 normally Bitcoin is able to get back up
22:22 to alltime highs first. So, yeah, like I
22:23 think the business cycle will come to an
22:25 end. Uh, my guess is it's going to
22:27 happen sometime,
22:28 you know, during the current
22:30 administration, right? That's my guess.
22:32 Like sometime over the next like three
22:34 three years or so. And I also don't
22:36 really see it as something necessarily
22:38 caused by the current administration. I
22:40 I think it's, you know, it's kind of
22:44 like all the money printing we had um
22:47 you know, last cycle like back in 2020,
22:49 you know, that led to inflation, right?
22:50 Like that that inflation was going to
22:52 happen no matter who took office in
22:54 2021, right?
22:56 But you could also now argue that the
22:58 unemployment rate going higher now or
23:00 going higher into 2026, like it was
23:02 always going to happen no matter who
23:04 took office, right? It's just a lot of
23:06 times administrations like to pass off
23:08 their problems to the next one, right?
23:10 Um, so yeah, I mean I do think the
23:13 business cycle will come to an end, but
23:14 u the the good news about business
23:16 cycles coming to an end is it's normally
23:19 like a like a 12 to 18month process,
23:22 right? So like when markets bottom, it's
23:24 an event, right? It's a it's a single
23:27 event. When markets top, it's a process,
23:30 right? It's a long process where we go
23:33 down, the bulls try again, and and we're
23:34 still not at the point where we're just
23:36 seeing we're not even seeing lower highs
23:38 yet, right? We're still at at all-time
23:41 highs. So, yeah, the business cycle is a
23:43 process. That's the at least the the the
23:44 way that you can try to stay optimistic
23:47 is to just remember that when things are
23:51 truly over. There likely will be signs
23:53 for months, right, of of the market
23:54 dropping and then lower highs because
23:56 the only way you go into the end of the
23:57 business cycle, right, where you get a
23:59 recession is to first start to see lower
24:02 asset prices that scare people, right?
24:04 That scare employers to then want to lay
24:06 people off. And that's the reason why,
24:08 you know, when the S&P dropped over here,
24:10 here,
24:11 a lot of people thought that was a
24:13 recession. But the reason it's not is
24:15 because asset prices recovered. I even
24:16 made a video on it at the time. I said,
24:19 "Look guys, if asset prices recover back
24:20 up to all-time highs within a couple of
24:23 months, like they did in 1998, then
24:24 you're still not going to have a
24:25 recession, right? The way you have a
24:28 recession is you get lower asset prices
24:30 that don't recover, right? So, it's it's
24:32 one of those things where like everyone
24:34 wants to be the hero and call for the
24:37 top and call for the recession, but
24:39 until asset prices start durably going
24:41 down, it's hard to actually have a
24:43 recession, right? Because the incentives
24:45 to lay people off just aren't
24:47 necessarily there yet. And and and and
24:48 that's not just my opinion. I mean,
24:50 like, look at look at layoffs, right? I
24:52 know people think this is a bad labor
24:55 market and and and hires are down, but
24:57 the the layoffs are still if anything
24:59 they're still below the preandemic
25:00 levels, you know,
25:03 um so the right now the labor market is
25:05 still holding up, but within, you know,
25:07 within another year or two at some point
25:10 things have got to start breaking down.
25:13 That makes sense. Uh
25:14 do you I I've seen people recently
25:17 calling for kind of the next rotation
25:19 from ETH to other majors. Do you think
25:21 that we're at that point yet?
25:23 So I I think I think people are missing
25:25 a step. I I think so it was it was first
25:27 it was Bitcoin to ETH. Right. So and and
25:30 and when Ethereum went to its regression
25:32 band back in April, that was the time to
25:34 trade things in for Ethereum because you
25:36 can actually see that altcoins bled over
25:39 50% against Ethereum after that after
25:41 Ethereum went down to $1,300 $1,400 back
25:44 in April. So that was your sort of
25:47 Ethereum season. Now, right now, you're
25:49 getting you sort of got a taste of what
25:50 an alt season might be like where you're
25:52 starting to see alts rally against
25:54 Ethereum, but the only reason they're
25:57 rallying against Ethereum right now is
25:59 because usually after, you know, after
26:02 Ethereum sweeps a prior high, um it or
26:04 not just Ethereum, just when assets
26:05 sweep a prior high, they can then
26:07 correct for a little bit, you know, a
26:08 little bit like a few weeks, sometimes a
26:10 few months. Um and and you're seeing
26:12 alts rally against Ethereum. What I
26:14 think people are missing right now when
26:15 you know they keep calling for all
26:17 season. I I think they're missing an
26:19 intermediate rotation back to Bitcoin
26:22 first, right? So it was Bitcoin only
26:24 basically until April because Bitcoin
26:26 dominance was just going up, right? It
26:27 really went up until June, but Ethereum
26:30 bottomed in April against Bitcoin. Um so
26:31 it was basically Bitcoin only then
26:34 Bitcoin and Ethereum since April and
26:35 then I think a lot of people think it's
26:37 alt season now, but I don't think it's
26:39 alt season until Ethereum puts in
26:40 durable all-time highs. And I don't
26:41 think it's going to do that until
26:44 October at the earliest, which means
26:46 that we're not witnessing a rotation
26:48 right now to the other majors. We're
26:50 witnessing a rotation back to Bitcoin.
26:52 And it should be a timely rotation
26:54 because we already saw that October is
26:56 normally the best month for Bitcoin
26:57 dominance, right? October is the best
26:59 month. We've seen dominance bottom in
27:02 September like five or six of the years
27:04 that Bitcoin do that that we've even
27:07 tracked this stuff. Um, so I think there
27:10 that rotation will likely come, but I
27:11 think people are off by about two months
27:13 on on that call. I think we're going to
27:15 first get a Bitcoin rotation back. That
27:18 rotation will probably last us for the
27:19 rest of this month and then through all
27:22 of October. Um, and then maybe early
27:23 November, but by the time you're getting
27:25 to mid November, you probably get that
27:28 rotation you talked about. So,
27:29 So,
27:32 how are you currently positioned
27:33 yourself in your portfolio from Bitcoin
27:37 and altcoins and ETH to majors?
27:39 So, I if you look at like this modern
27:41 portfolio theory stuff and and you want
27:42 to like maximize your risk adjusted
27:44 returns, generally speaking, you know,
27:47 to maximize your ratio, you're looking
27:50 around 83% Bitcoin, 17% ETH, right? So,
27:53 about 8020 uh plus or minus I think is
27:57 the way to go. that way. Um, if you
27:59 know, especially right now because if if
28:01 you're banking on Bitcoin dominance
28:02 going up again, which is what I think is
28:04 going to happen, it makes sense to have
28:05 most of your crypto portfolio in
28:07 Bitcoin, right? Because it's lower risk
28:09 than alts and it should outperform most
28:12 of them uh for the next 6 weeks. uh but
28:15 about 20% into ETH because while I do
28:16 think it it's going to struggle against
28:19 Bitcoin for maybe a few more weeks from
28:21 as measured from now until the end of
28:23 the cycle Ethereum will likely
28:24 outperform Bitcoin right from as
28:26 measured from now until the end even
28:28 though I expect weakness through the
28:29 month of October for the ETH Bitcoin
28:32 pair. So I think right now about an 80
28:35 20% 80 to 20% split Bitcoin and ETH
28:37 makes the most amount of sense. If you
28:39 are going to go into altcoins right now,
28:41 I would still keep it a relatively low
28:43 amount. Um, just because I see that
28:47 rotation back to Bitcoin coming.
28:52 And so then would you say that I mean
28:55 for you or uh just generally speaking,
28:58 do you think then kind of at the end of
29:00 October would be the good time to start
29:02 rotating into kind of alts or majors?
29:03 Well, it depends on what your unit of
29:05 account is, right? I mean, and this is
29:06 where I get into trouble with people is
29:07 because a lot of people will sit there
29:09 with cash and they'll hear me say like,
29:12 "Oh, Ben says don't get into altcoins."
29:15 But what I'm actually saying is being in
29:18 Bitcoin makes more sense, right? So, if
29:20 you account US dollars and you want to
29:22 get into altcoins, I think just DCA,
29:24 right, is the way. It's it's kind of
29:25 foolish to try to time the market too
29:27 much because no one can really time the
29:30 market in my opinion. Um, but if if your
29:33 unit of account is Bitcoin, that's been
29:35 a lot easier to track this cycle, right?
29:36 It's been a lot easier to just know when
29:38 Bitcoin tends to outperform. So, if
29:41 you're looking to rotate, then I would
29:46 say stay with Bitcoin for now. Um, and
29:48 then maybe early November rotate. But
29:49 that's it. That's if your unit account's
29:51 Bitcoin. If your unit account is US
29:52 dollars, like, you know, I think DCA is
29:54 the way.
29:56 Do you do you have any idea uh
29:58 potentially how high the total market
30:04 cap might go and uh this this uh cycle?
30:05 Any theories on that?
30:09 Um that's a good question. Uh let me
30:12 see. I I haven't really looked at a
30:15 whole lot. Um
30:17 I guess if you kind of extend this out.
30:19 I mean, I think I, you know, someone
30:21 asked me this like a week or two ago,
30:23 and I I feel like, you know, 5 to 6
30:26 trillion is obtainable. Um, you know,
30:27 you would essentially need to have
30:29 Bitcoin at all-time highs, Ethereum
30:31 participating, and and altcoins starting
30:34 to participate. If you look at like last
30:36 cycle and you look at this like fib
30:38 extension uh from the top, you know, you
30:41 can see that we rallied up to the 4.236
30:43 um from the cycle before. So, if you if
30:46 you kind of extend that out, you can see
30:48 that the 1.61 618. We're getting
30:49 relatively close to it. That would
30:52 correspond to about 4.5 trillion or so.
30:55 Maybe about 4.4. Uh so there's a decent
30:57 chance we'll we'll reach that. The next
30:59 level is a 2.618, which is all the way
31:01 up at, you know, just over 6 trillion.
31:03 Unfortunately, with diminishing returns,
31:06 you normally won't go to sort of the
31:08 extension that you got the last cycle.
31:10 So I do not think we will make it to the
31:13 4.236 this cycle, uh which would be
31:16 about 10 trillion. But I do think the
31:18 asset class will make it to 10 trill,
31:20 you know, will make it to 10 trillion. I
31:21 just don't know if it's going to happen
31:23 this cycle or not, right? Like we might
31:24 have to wait until next we might, you
31:27 know, we might get close um and then
31:29 maybe we get our 2026 bare market and
31:32 then maybe then we go up to uh you know
31:34 10 trillion by 2028 or something, right?
31:36 Like I don't know. I think we are going
31:37 to 10 trillion. It's just like when's it
31:39 going to happen? I don't One of the
31:41 reasons why it's hard for it to again
31:42 anything's possible. One of the reasons
31:44 it's hard for it to happen this cycle is
31:46 because arguably if it is a four-year
31:48 cycle, we only have three and a half
31:50 more months, right? So,
31:52 the market really needs to start moving
31:54 if it's going to happen. I'm not It's
31:56 not that it can't, it could. It It's
31:58 just like we haven't we would have to
31:59 start doing something that we haven't
32:01 really done this cycle, and that's just
32:03 go parabolic, right? Like Bitcoin hasn't
32:07 really done that um as much this cycle.
32:09 It's been more of a slow prog I mean,
32:10 look at look at this cycle compared to
32:11 last cycle, right? where it was
32:13 basically just up only.
32:14 Yeah. Crazy.
32:16 Yeah. And I So, like anything's
32:17 possible. So, I don't want to say it
32:19 can't happen, but like look at to give
32:20 you an idea of what I mean like when I'm
32:22 looking at total market cap, look at
32:23 Bitcoin and you can kind of you can kind
32:25 of look at the same idea. Like if you
32:28 look at the first cycle, um you can see
32:30 that we went way above, right? Like way
32:32 above any extensions. But then if you go
32:34 to like the next cycle, still above it.
32:38 Next cycle we hit the uh we hit the
32:41 3.618, right? So, it it got lower than
32:43 the cycle before that. And then this
32:45 cycle, uh, we're already, you know,
32:46 obviously we've already broken a new
32:49 all-time high. So, um, you know, we've
32:52 already passed the 1.618. So, the next
32:55 level, so I would say for Bitcoin, we're
32:57 probably not going to the 3.618.
32:59 Probably not, cuz that's where that's
33:01 where we were last cycle, and we would
33:03 expect some form of of diminishing returns,
33:04 returns,
33:07 you know. Is the 2.618 possible? Yeah,
33:08 like that's possible. Where does that
33:10 put us at for Bitcoin?
33:13 About 150, you know, plus or minus about
33:15 150. I mean, again, it's not like it has
33:17 to happen, but it is possible. And the
33:19 way I would play this is, you know, I I
33:22 I am just more so looking at like risk
33:23 metrics and like volatility and and
33:25 euphoria. We're not really in that right
33:26 now. Like, we're not really seeing
33:28 euphoria. The fear and greed index is is
33:32 I think it's kind of low right now. Um,
33:35 if you look at uh fear and greed, it's
33:36 it can't be that high. Yeah, I mean,
33:38 it's neutral right now. it's only at 53.
33:41 Um, and then of course if you look at at
33:43 some of the risk stuff, you can see that
33:45 we're not we're not really in the
33:46 euphoric times. No.
33:46 No.
33:49 Um, but so here's how I would play it,
33:51 right? We have about three and a half
33:54 more months um historically of of
33:55 potentially good price action. It could
33:57 the market cycle could end as early, you
34:00 know, as October uh or as late as
34:01 December is kind of how I see it.
34:04 Sometime between October and December. I
34:06 would like I think it makes sense to
34:09 start becoming cautious once we get into
34:12 Q4. Um, and if and if it's like if it's
34:14 mid December and Bitcoin and the
34:17 euphoria still hasn't returned, then I
34:19 would start to question if it's going
34:20 to, right?
34:22 But at this point, like there's still a
34:24 chance that it might come back. Um, and
34:27 remember, you know, it's still it has
34:29 this entire cycle, it's paid to be
34:31 optimistic. As long as we've continued
34:33 our weekly closes above the 50we moving
34:35 average. Historically, once you get
34:37 those closes below the 50we, it means
34:39 the cycle is over, right? It means the
34:42 cycle is over. And every single time, we
34:44 have not had that yet this cycle. Now,
34:46 the 50we moving average is currently at
34:49 around $98,000. So, you know, I will
34:52 still lean optimistic and and call for
34:54 the, you know, for for for Bitcoin
34:56 season and whatnot, as long as we're
34:58 above that 50we estimate, but whenever
35:00 we drop below it on weekly closes, I
35:02 think it makes sense to to pivot quickly
35:04 and say, look, that could be it. And we
35:06 need to prepare for the bare market when
35:07 that happens. But we haven't seen it
35:09 yet. We've had a couple of close calls,
35:11 right? We had one in uh September 2024.
35:13 We had one in April. I even think I
35:15 wasn't I on your channel.
35:17 Yeah. Um, and I think I said like as
35:19 long as we hold the 2024 high, we should
35:22 go to new all-time highs on on this
35:24 drop. And so now we're kind of seeing
35:26 something similar, right, where we're
35:28 trying to hold these highs, right? We're
35:31 trying to hold the the the January highs
35:32 um as support. And as long as those
35:34 hold, then we should go to new all-time
35:37 highs. Uh, once again, I just think that
35:38 we're going through this brutal
35:40 September month. And normally in the
35:42 month of September, Bitcoin just tries
35:44 to hold the 20week moving average,
35:45 right? You can look at 2020. You know,
35:48 2020 is actually a really a really close
35:50 carbon copy of what we've seen so far.
35:52 Like look at the the pattern, right? You
35:55 have a low in in Q1. You go up and then
35:58 you go sideways until the 21week EMA
36:00 catches up. Then you pop up, go
36:02 sideways, and then back down. And then
36:04 you test that 20we SMA for the entire
36:06 month of September. Right? So it's the
36:08 same thing, right? You have a low in in
36:11 in the Q1, early Q2. you go up, then you
36:13 go sideways until the 21 EMA catches up.
36:15 Up, sideways, back down. So, I think
36:18 right now we're we're basically in this area,
36:20 area,
36:23 right? We're in that area. So, I think
36:25 Bitcoin I mean, obviously investors are
36:27 hopeful that we're going to coil up and
36:29 go into the final rally into the market
36:30 cycle top.
36:33 But I will say like it it it
36:34 that I think that should be the base
36:36 case, right? Absolutely that should be
36:38 the base case. But if that actually
36:39 starts to happen, just remember the top
36:41 could occur at any moment, right? Cuz no
36:42 one's going to tell like no one's going
36:44 to be like this is the top, you know,
36:45 like everyone's just going to be
36:47 euphoric if we start to see a move up.
36:49 And so what I what I started looking at
36:51 a little closer recently just because
36:53 we've started to, you know, we started
36:55 to get um
36:57 closer potentially to the end, as you
36:59 look at like the ROI from the low, you
37:03 can see we're currently on day 1,041
37:07 of the cycle. Um last cycle ended on day
37:09 1,059 which is only wow
37:09 wow
37:12 18 days but the cycle before that ended
37:15 on day 1,067
37:16 right which that would that that would
37:19 put you closer to midocctober. So I
37:21 would say look by midocctober we at
37:23 least have to ask ourselves could that
37:24 be it
37:27 and and if it is who knows and the other
37:30 thing too is in terms of like patterns
37:32 and whatnot Bitcoin tends to repeat patterns
37:34 patterns
37:35 there's two ways you can look at this
37:38 right you can say all right well in 2017
37:41 it was a December top in 2021 it was a
37:42 November top maybe this one is an
37:44 October top right so we go December
37:47 November October every cycle that comes
37:48 one month earlier just to throw people
37:51 off. But the counterpoint to that is the
37:54 cycle before was November. So maybe it
37:56 just goes November, December, November,
37:58 December. Structurally speaking, there
38:00 are a lot of similarities between this
38:03 cycle and the 2017 cycle. We even have
38:04 the same president, right? I mean, Trump
38:09 was also president in in 2017. Um so
38:11 good chance you'll see a top either
38:15 October or December. Um would be my
38:17 guess. And the way it would work out is
38:20 if it's an October top, then you would
38:22 then you could have an uh a November alt
38:24 season, right?
38:27 If it if it's a December top, then what
38:29 will happen is you'll get another you'll
38:31 get one more fake alt season before the
38:33 real one, right? Um and that's
38:35 essentially what happened uh in 2017.
38:36 Like if you look at Bitcoin dominance in
38:38 2017, you can see the narrative exactly
38:40 how it played out. Like you see how
38:43 dominance um rallied, right? It it it
38:44 bottomed in September and then it
38:47 rallied into late October and then you
38:49 had a massive move down by dominance in
38:51 the first week of November and everyone
38:53 thought it was all season. I know cuz I
38:56 I did too. Um and then you still have
38:58 had one more Bitcoin dominance rally, right?
38:59 right?
39:01 And then you finally had the top end. So
39:03 for again for everyone who's who wants
39:06 alt season to happen remember the the
39:09 the better alt seasons come you know
39:10 normally closer to the end of the year
39:13 and then also the they come from higher
39:15 Bitcoin dominance levels right like the
39:16 higher dominance is the better the alt
39:18 season that you can get. Um
39:19 Um
39:22 so I would say you know you'll either
39:24 you you probably will see dominance drop
39:26 a lot in November. I think I think
39:28 dominance will be green in September. So
39:30 it should be green this month. It'll go
39:33 up a lot in October. It'll drop a lot in
39:36 November. And if if the top if the cycle
39:38 top for Bitcoin is in October, that's
39:40 all we get, right? And we just we you
39:42 know, we're happy that it happened and
39:43 we move on to the next cycle. If we can
39:47 get one more dominance rally, uh it's
39:49 possible for it to go up one final time
39:51 in early December. But even if it does
39:52 go up in early December, I still think
39:55 dominance will probably drop by then. uh
39:56 because even if even if dominance
39:58 rallies for like the first week or two
39:59 of December, it'll probably drop for the
40:02 rest of December.
40:04 So that's kind of how I see the cycle
40:05 playing out. And then if it does play
40:07 out like that, then it just kind of
40:11 nicely sets up the uh you know a 2026
40:14 bare market. We consolidate, we get all
40:16 the crap out, all the fluff, and we
40:18 repeat our cycle in 2027.
40:20 What do you What are the kind of things?
40:22 you know, we've gotten kind of the
40:23 assumption that potentially the cycle
40:26 tops out in either October or December,
40:28 but what are you going to be looking at
40:30 the closest to try to, you know, try to
40:32 figure out either consolidate back into
40:35 Bitcoin or, you know, take profits into
40:37 stable coin and and actually if you get
40:39 a good hunch or a feeling or your data
40:40 tells you that you believe that the
40:42 cycle is coming to an end, how are you
40:43 going to play that? Are you going to
40:45 take profits into stable coin or going
40:47 to go into Bitcoin or what? I would
40:49 consolidate altcoins back into Bitcoin,
40:51 right? So, like if you own altcoins, if
40:53 you own Ethereum, you know, by the end
40:55 of the year or early 2026, I would I
40:57 would go back to Bitcoin at the very
40:59 least. Um, I do think it makes sense to
41:01 have at least 30% cash going into the
41:03 uh, you know, going into the midterm
41:04 year in case it does end up being a bare
41:05 market. You at least want to have
41:07 something to be able to buy the dip
41:09 with. Um, I'm using this like this is a
41:11 risk level for Bitcoin. It's pretty
41:13 neutral right now. Uh, you know, it's
41:16 between 0.5 and 6 risk. So, normally
41:18 this spikes and when it spikes it sets
41:19 up the market cycle top and then the
41:21 bare market happens. That hasn't
41:23 happened yet this cycle. Um, you know,
41:25 the best time for it to happen would be
41:29 in Q4, right? Uh, so if it happens in
41:33 Q4, then um that'll make it really easy
41:34 because if we if we start screaming
41:37 higher in Q4 for me, it'll just be
41:39 simple like, all right, this time's not
41:40 different. I'll just I'll take profits
41:43 back to stables uh and and you know
41:45 maybe wait until mid 2026 to get
41:46 interested again, right?
41:47 right?
41:49 What's going to be harder is if it
41:51 doesn't spike, right? And and it just
41:52 kind of kind of like you see this like
41:55 move in 2019 where like the risk went up
41:57 uh but then it ended up going back all
41:58 the way down because we went into a
42:00 recession, you know?
42:03 Um like that would be the harder pill to
42:06 swallow and I I'm not really prepared to
42:08 swallow that pill right now. I feel like
42:09 I feel like there's still reason to
42:10 again there's still reason to be
42:12 optimistic as long as Bitcoin is holding
42:14 those prior highs, as long as we're
42:16 above the 50we SMA and as long as we're
42:18 still looking at, you know, potentially
42:21 Bitcoin dominance surging in October. It
42:23 it seems reasonable to hope for another
42:25 surge by the risk metric to the upside.
42:27 Where it becomes tricky is if we're
42:29 sitting here in mid December and we're
42:32 still at 0.5 risk, right? You know, what
42:34 happens then? Like then do we does
42:35 everyone just give up and say, "All
42:36 right, it wasn't meant to be this
42:38 cycle." uh do your friends get it right
42:40 and and that that are calling for a a
42:42 longer cycle in the 2026, right? Maybe
42:44 that's what has to happen is everyone
42:46 gives up and and then you finally get
42:47 the spike to the higher risk levels. But
42:49 for me personally, I use the risk
42:52 metric. If we're still not spiking to
42:53 the higher risk levels by the end of the
42:56 year, I would probably have to assume
42:58 that uh you know something is keeping
43:00 that from happening, right? And already
43:02 I mean already with diminishing returns
43:04 like we've seen much lower returns this
43:05 cycle. I mean to give you an idea of
43:08 just how muted these returns have been. Mhm.
43:08 Mhm.
43:13 Look at uh look at 2017. So the low from
43:15 2017 cuz Bitcoin also had a correction
43:18 in 2017 where it tested the 2016 high,
43:21 right? Um or sorry, I'm looking at the uh
43:23 uh here
43:26 here
43:28 is 2016 high. So the 2016 high is right
43:30 here, right? So in early 2017, you see
43:32 how Bitcoin got the same correction and
43:35 tested it. um just like we did this
43:39 cycle where Bitcoin tested uh the 2024
43:41 high in 2025, right? So, very similar
43:44 setup, but what's what's different is
43:47 that the rally from that low into the
43:50 August top for Bitcoin back in 2017, it
43:53 was over a 500% rally, right? It was a
43:57 540% rally, but from this low into the
44:00 August top, it was only like a a 60%
44:03 rally, right? So, it's, you know, you're
44:05 looking at basically an an entire order
44:07 of magnitude difference um
44:09 in in the in the level of the rally that
44:12 we got. And that's kind of like just
44:15 like a a sobering smack in the face, I
44:18 guess, um to just realize, you know,
44:21 just how how how how different that's
44:24 been. So, everyone's waiting on a
44:26 similar move and it and it very well
44:27 could happen, right? Like it it
44:29 certainly still could. I'm just saying
44:31 if it doesn't happen by the end of the
44:35 year, then I feel like me and I I have
44:36 to assume some other people too would
44:37 start to wonder if it's actually going
44:39 to this cycle or not.
44:40 You know what I was just thinking about
44:43 that's um I think a lot different about
44:45 this cycle too is just uh maybe another
44:46 reason it feels a little bit more boring
44:49 to is that we haven't really had you
44:51 know all these kind of 30 to 40%
44:52 pullbacks that we've had in previous
44:54 cycles, right? like we're getting like
44:56 on Bitcoin at least as far as it's
44:59 concerned we getting like 10 15 maybe
45:02 20% max pullbacks we haven't seen like
45:04 any of these 40% pullbacks right
45:06 I think the largest we had was over here
45:08 and it was it was barely a 30% drop you
45:10 want to see an interesting chart
45:12 actually I think you might like this
45:13 chart because you because that was a
45:15 really good point uh days we're let's
45:20 look at days since Bitcoin had a a 50%
45:23 drop right what what cycle What does
45:24 this look like? It looks like the 2016
45:26 2017 cycle, right? Yeah.
45:26 Yeah.
45:28 Like because that's the only other cycle
45:31 where Bitcoin went over a,000 days
45:33 without a 50% drop, right? And it looks
45:36 like that's what we're potentially
45:37 coming into here.
45:38 How many days?
45:41 Well, right now it's been 1,041.
45:44 Um, in 2017
45:46 it topped, you know, the the market
45:48 cycle topped on basically a d a day
45:51 1,070. So about it again it puts us in
45:55 October. Um, but then the the drop, the
45:57 50% drop didn't happen until, you know,
45:59 until uh a little bit later on, like a
46:01 few months later, like it took until I
46:03 think, you know, 2018 until you actually
46:06 had the 50% drop, but the top occurred
46:08 sooner than that, right? So, you know,
46:11 we're coming up on that in about a
46:13 month, right? Midocctober.
46:15 That's why for me, like once we get to
46:17 mid-occtober, like I have to force
46:20 myself to think maybe that's it, right?
46:22 Even though I don't want it to be, I
46:23 have to force myself as early as
46:25 mid-occtober to think maybe that's it.
46:26 Hopefully, we get another move in
46:28 December. We have to take it one step at
46:29 a time.
46:31 Ben, all of these charts, everything
46:32 that you've been showing us so far has
46:34 all been in your into the cryptoverse
46:36 kind of toolkit, right?
46:37 Yeah. Yeah, we got a lot of charts over there.
46:38 there.
46:40 For for folks who uh just maybe you
46:42 could just uh do a a shameless plug real
46:44 quick and let people know because it's
46:46 like all very fascinating stuff. And so
46:47 if someone's watching this and wants to
46:49 know how to get access to all of these
46:51 and how to use everything that you've
46:53 been showing us, how do they do that?
46:54 Yeah, just go into the cryptoverse.com.
46:57 I also talk a lot about it just on my uh
46:58 my channel uh
47:00 you know just after my name, Benjamin
47:03 Cowen. Um but yeah, I mean like and and
47:05 we have a free tier as well where people
47:06 can get access to a lot of the charts
47:08 for free. I mean, not all of them, of
47:10 course, but we also have um I don't
47:11 really talk a whole lot about altcoins,
47:13 like you know, I just I more so focus on
47:14 the majors like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and
47:16 whatnot. I don't really got on the list,
47:18 but we do have this like asset filter
47:20 where, you know, you can go in here and
47:24 and pick different different altcoins um
47:27 to basically look at and and if you do
47:29 that, it'll then pull up the uh the
47:31 charts that we have just for that
47:34 altcoin, right? So, you know, if if
47:35 there are some altcoins that you're
47:37 interested in, that is at least one way
47:40 you can get some data behind it. But,
47:42 you know, for for me, I feel like the
47:43 longer you're in the cycles, the more
47:45 you just sort of defer towards, you
47:46 know, towards Bitcoin to be completely honest.
47:47 honest.
47:48 May maybe you could just pull up
47:50 something on Salana real quick and show
47:51 us a little bit about like how that
47:54 would work because uh I'm doing a show
47:56 on Salana soon and um and just, you
47:57 know, there's a lot of talk about the
47:58 ETFs. You just had that digital asset
48:01 treasury company buy like 1.6 6 billion
48:03 on it. And so there just it seems to be
48:04 kind of on the timeline.
48:06 Here's like yeah, here's like the Salana
48:08 running one-year ROI, right? Here's a
48:11 here's a good um a nice chart. If you
48:12 look at I think we have a risk metric
48:16 for Salana uh as well.
48:18 So the the risk metric for Salana right
48:22 now is about 695, right? So it's
48:23 getting, you know, it's getting up
48:25 there. It's not like as high as it was
48:27 last cycle. Um, but it's pretty it's
48:29 pretty elevated, but again, it's not as
48:31 elevated as some of other things we've
48:34 seen. XRP was a coin that, you know, I
48:36 think it keeps if people keep thinking
48:37 it's going to go like I I see all these
48:39 like crazy price predictions,
48:41 but you know, it is already in the 7 to
48:43 point8 wristband. It doesn't mean it
48:44 can't go higher. It could, but just know
48:47 that if it gets that final spike up like
48:48 it did all these other cycles, that's
48:50 probably it, right? So,
48:52 you could see how we could put a bow on
48:54 the cycle for a lot of these altcoins,
48:55 even for Ethereum, right? you can see
48:57 how we could put a bow on it. Just get
48:59 that final spike up to the higher
49:01 wristbands and let's just call it a day,
49:04 you know, let's enjoy 2026 doing our our
49:06 other hobbies and we'll come back at the
49:08 end this whole thing, right?
49:11 So I Yeah, I mean I I feel like you
49:14 could visualize how the cycle might end. Um
49:15 Um
49:16 it's just a matter of of of does it play
49:18 out between now and and the rest of the year.
49:18 year.
49:21 Yeah. All right, Ben. Uh amazing. Thank
49:23 you so much for for everything. Uh
49:25 really fascinating and helps a lot. I've
49:28 been uh been wanting to get my my
49:29 audience up to date on some technicals
49:31 and see how things are playing out, get
49:33 a different perspective from the other
49:34 mega bulls who are looking at
49:36 fundamentals and just have a sense
49:38 check, reality check here.
49:39 Yeah. No, thanks for having me. A
49:41 pleasure to be here as always. Um and
49:43 hopefully we can catch up again in a few months.
49:43 months.
49:45 Sure. Thanks, Ben.
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