Skip watching entire videos - get the full transcript, search for keywords, and copy with one click.
Share:
Video Transcript
Video Summary
Summary
Core Theme
Court sighting is a tennis betting strategy that exploits delays in bookmakers updating live odds by betting on events that have just occurred but haven't yet been reflected in the odds, aiming for positive expected value.
Mind Map
Click to expand
Click to explore the full interactive mind map • Zoom, pan, and navigate
this is probably the best tennis betting
strategy if not the best betting
strategy ever and this guy made over 1
million pounds using it this strategy is
relatively low risk and yields very good
returns and the best part about it is
you don't need to be a tennis expert and
analyze the games of hundreds of players
this strategy is known as Court sighting
and involves betting at the game live at
the location where it is being played
and getting on the bets before bookies
or Sports books have updated their odds
appropriately based on the events that
have just happened this means they get
their bets on at odds well above the
fair rides which therefore makes it
positive EV or expected value and after
that they can either choose to let the
bet just ride and hope for the best at
positive expected value or they can cash
out with the Sportsbook or bookie with a
small profit the most popular sport for
court sighting is tennis and this is for
two main reasons firstly because there
are Dynamic events meaning to have
significant effects on odds and betting
outcomes when they do occur an example
of this is when a player breaks their
opponent's serve meaning they're much
more likely to win the game or the set
or alternatively to a lesser extent when
they win a point to gain a couple of
break points against their opponent
secondly the frequency of these events
is quite High these significant events
such as players breaking serve or
gaining breakpoints happens many times
throughout each match and therefore
presents many frequent opportunities per
game this is separate from something
like a soccer game where even though
there are significant events that can
affect the outcome of a game such as if
a player gets a red card or there's a
penalty kick awarded to a team these
don't really happen too often and
sometimes they don't even happen at all
in soccer games so how can Court
sighting be possible how can you be able
to get odds that aren't updated by the
bookie but bet on events that kind of
happen in the future well the reason for
this is that the scores aren't updated
automatically at the moment the point is
one so when a player serves an ace at
that moment the player doesn't receive
it it's not automatically updated there
has to be an Umpire who updates the
score electronically into a system and
that system gets passed onto Sports
books and they can therefore reflect
their odds so how you take advantage of
this is by exploiting slow umpires they
might take a couple seconds before they
can update the numbers into their pad
correctly so chord sighting doesn't
always work you do need to find slow
umpires which gives you a little bit of
time like even a few seconds to bet on
the events before sportsbooks can update
their odds the easiest and simplest case
of Court sighting is betting on
something entirely risk-free as you are
basically betting on something that has
already won for example if you are
betting on the next Point winner or the
next game winner if it's already at game
point and you see a player win that
point or win the game then you can bet
on that and it's entirely risk-free and
we can see this is what this guy from
BBC was doing he was basically betting
on game point and we can see the odds
are very very low and that's because
here's just one point away from winning
so if you watch this clip carefully we
can see there's two parties involved one
is the court cider because nowadays
sporting events don't really like
courtsiders and you're technically not
allowed to do it so what he does is he
communicates to someone remotely using a
Bluetooth connection or like a phone and
that person places the bets for him we
can see he was purely focusing on the
entirely risk-free bets so just betting
on the next game point winner and we can
see he's only showing wins and no losses
which implies that he was only betting
on guaranteed things that had already
occurred and the fact that the odds were
quite low kind of reaffirms this idea
unfortunately though this was back in
2017 and because of that video or
through just losing a lot of money to
these courtsiders The Bookies definitely
caught on and the next game winner is
suspended during the final points of the
game when it is at a game point scenario
meaning it is no longer possible to
guarantee a profit by betting on
something you know has already
definitely won so it is quite exciting
no longer possible well actually no just
because the purest risk-free and
simplest form of Court sighting is no
longer available doesn't mean
opportunities no longer exist but it
does take a bit more skill a basic
understanding of the game of tennis and
some mathematical intuition to figure it
all out to try and explain let's use an
example let's say its final set of a
tennis match between Medvedev and Nadal
both players have won two sets and two
games each the score is 30 40 on
medvedev's serve which is breakpoint the
next game we're not Market will be
suspended as it is game point and
bookies are trying to avoid losing to
court circles however what about winning
the match if the mighty Rafa Nadal wins
the next point he will have a huge
Advantage as he would have broken
medibadev's sir and therefore in the
final set of the game with a break of
serve is very very likely now that Nadal
will win the game okay this means if you
see either Nadal already win the break
point or even earlier maybe see Nadal is
very likely to win that point for
example if you just saw Medvedev lobb
the ball high into the air land short in
Rafa's side of the court and Rafael
Nadal has a very easy smash then
therefore betting on the dial to win the
game is now a value bet at that time
before the bookmakers could update their
odds the fair rods for Nadal to win the
game might be 1.6 and the bookie is
offering you 1.5 however after the point
an endowed breaks served the fair odds
will likely drop to perhaps 1.2 meaning
the 1.5 odds for Nadal to win the game
is a great value bet we can work out the
expected value mathematically for a one
thousand dollar bet dividing one by the
fair rods gives the fair probability of
83 percent of Nadal winning then we plug
the numbers into the EV formula which is
the sum of the probabilities multiplied
by the respective payout which is an 83
chance of winning multiplied by 500
profit effort and a 17 chance multiplied
by a negative one thousand dollar loss
which is two hundred and fifty dollars
or twenty five percent in expected value
the reason this bet is profitable even
though we aren't guaranteed to win is
because this particular bet has a high
Delta a term I borrowed from stock
options theory that represents the
change in value of an option given in
one dollar change in the underlying
stock for tennis betting DOTA we can
think of it as a change in the audits
for a player to win given a one point
change in the scoreline depending on the
score at that time each Court signing
opportunity might have a high Delta or a
low Delta in the example above the
opportunity has a high Delta with the
odds moving from 1.6 to 1.2 given a
dollar's break-off serve in the decisive
set however if instead the score was two
sets to nil in favor of Nadal and four
nil in the third set in favor of Nadal
even if Nadal broke men would have
served to make it five nil it wouldn't
affect the odds as much as if it were
still four nil as at that point there's
already pretty much no chance of
Medvedev winning in this case the fair
rides for Nadal might be 1.01 at 4 nil
in the final set with the bookmaker
offering 1.01 after it becomes five nil
the fair odds might become 1.05 but it's
a small change and a low Delta
opportunity since the booking odds are
still lower than this it is still a
negative EV bet figuring out the Delta
for points throughout the game will take
some mathematical modeling and knowledge
of tennis and the player's strengths
relative to each other but it can be
done this will help you determine if the
change or shortening of the odds as a
result of the Court signing information
and Advantage is enough to offset the
difference between the fair rods and the
current outdated bookies worst odds and
therefore create positive EV bet
opportunities nowadays this strategy is
made even harder as in some places like
Australia it's no longer possible to bet
live just by pressing a button instead
with most Sportsbook seem to call up the
company and they'll have to place the
bets for you after reading through the
terms and conditions and whatnot which
takes time and by that point the
opportunity as a result of that Court
signing Advantage for a few split
seconds no longer exists however even if
you timed everything very well bookies
like Bet365 which is the main bookie
offering these live bets on tennis games
are catching up to what is happening
here looking at Bet365 priority Problem
customer we can see that they've
identified problem customers or
customers to ban and restrict as those
who are stalling going through silence
checking prices or selections refusing
bats during read back or hanging up
which means courtsiders might also time
waste or store as a result of having to
place these bets over the phone and wait
for the right opportunity between sports
books don't like these customers and as
a result they're more likely to be
labeled as a priority Problem customer
and get account restrictions stuck on
them and of course they can just pick
anyone who is suspected of having your
system or visual Advantage which is just
Court citing Advantage now even though
code setting is a great strategy it does
take a lot of costs like having to go to
the tennis match and actually watch the
game live and it does take a lot of
skill to do it right as well however if
you guys want some simpler strategies
you can check out my other videos that
are free on my channel the strategies I
offer will work very well for Australia
and New Zealand bookies and are
specifically targeted for them and I've
also just launched the USA and Canada
course for taking advantage of sports
books in North America and making a
profit using strategies that work well
over there if you enjoyed this video
then make sure to give it a big like
down below and subscribe to this channel
to not miss out on future sports betting
tips and tricks take care and I'll see
Click on any text or timestamp to jump to that moment in the video
Share:
Most transcripts ready in under 5 seconds
One-Click Copy125+ LanguagesSearch ContentJump to Timestamps
Paste YouTube URL
Enter any YouTube video link to get the full transcript
Transcript Extraction Form
Most transcripts ready in under 5 seconds
Get Our Chrome Extension
Get transcripts instantly without leaving YouTube. Install our Chrome extension for one-click access to any video's transcript directly on the watch page.
