0:00 hey there and welcome back to heimlich's
0:01 history now we've been going through
0:02 unit 4 of the ap government curriculum
0:03 and in this video that means it's time
0:05 to talk about the effects of public
0:06 opinion on elections and policy debates
0:09 so if you're ready to get them brain
0:10 cows milked let's get to it okay as
0:12 always let's start with our learning
0:13 objective explain the quality and
0:15 credibility of claims based on public
0:17 opinion data so if you were here for the
0:19 previous video we talked about how
0:20 researchers use mass surveys and other
0:22 means to measure public opinion on a
0:24 wide variety of issues but they don't
0:26 just do that for funsies they do it
0:28 because public opinion affects elections
0:30 and the outcomes of policy debates based
0:32 on public opinion legislators know how
0:34 much support they have for certain
0:36 pieces of legislation based on public
0:37 opinion candidates for office know how
0:39 to appeal to people's actual desires but
0:41 aside from those higher level effects
0:43 public opinion polls have very real
0:45 consequences maybe you've seen a
0:46 presidential primary debate before this
0:48 is where all the candidates for that
0:49 party are contending to get the
0:51 nomination to run for president now for
0:52 the 2016 republican primaries there was
0:54 roughly a metric butt load of contenders
0:56 for the nomination and if you watch that
0:58 debate you may have wondered how do they
1:00 decide where to place each candidate on
1:02 the stage i mean okay you probably
1:04 weren't wondering that but whatever they
1:05 did place these people on the stage
1:07 according to their polling numbers so
1:09 the candidate with the highest numbers
1:10 will be placed at the center and then
1:12 they fan out from there now why does
1:13 that matter well it matters because the
1:15 candidate in the center will draw more
1:16 attention and the people who study these
1:18 things tell us that the center-placed
1:20 candidates usually have more speaking
1:21 time than the rest and all of that is a
1:23 result of how they fared in public
1:25 opinion polls so you can start to see
1:27 the power of the system like if a
1:29 candidate is popular in opinion polls
1:30 then that same candidate will be front
1:32 and center in the primary debate which
1:33 means more attention and hopefully more
1:35 positive opinions made to the public and
1:37 this can have a self-perpetuating effect
1:39 in fact because of what's called the
1:40 bandwagon effect people are more likely
1:42 to get behind a candidate who is polling
1:44 well because at the end of the day
1:46 people don't want to back a loser they
1:48 want to back a winner additionally
1:49 candidates who have higher polling
1:50 numbers have an easier time raising
1:52 funds because again if you're polling
1:53 well you're more likely to win and
1:55 nobody wants to give money to a losing
1:57 candidate so you can see that public
1:58 opinion polls can have a powerful effect
2:00 on the outcome of an election but in
2:02 addition to election public opinions can
2:03 have a strong effect on policy debate as
2:05 well like if polls indicate that a
2:07 majority of americans favor a given
2:09 policy then politicians are more likely
2:10 than not to vote for it on the other
2:12 side of the coin if a policy is popular
2:14 and a politician votes against it they
2:16 are going to pay for it now i confess
2:17 that recently that has not been as much
2:19 the case like for example as the
2:20 republican party has consistently tried
2:22 to block very popular legislation
2:24 embodied in president biden's
2:25 infrastructure package they don't
2:27 actually appear to be suffering any
2:28 political disadvantage for doing this
2:30 but even so in general what i said is
2:32 usually how it works now what i've said
2:34 so far is this public opinion polls have
2:35 a significant influence over elections
2:37 and policy debates and in a perfect
2:39 world that is how it works however as is
2:40 my custom i need to complicate this a
2:42 little the relationship between public
2:44 opinion polls and elections and policy
2:46 debates can be affected by how people
2:48 view the reliability of those opinion
2:50 polls if you remember in the last video
2:51 we talked about the principles of
2:52 scientific polls and how if polls are
2:54 conducted correctly according to
2:55 scientific rigor then they are about the
2:57 best tools we have for accurately
2:59 measuring public opinion however that
3:00 reliability has come into question
3:02 recently not least because there have
3:03 been a few spectacular blunders with
3:06 poland probably the most recent and
3:07 notable polling failure occurred in the
3:09 2016 presidential election between
3:11 donald trump and hillary clinton
3:12 according to the pollsters clinton was a
3:14 shoo-in for victory in fact i could
3:16 still remember going to bed about 10
3:17 o'clock that night convinced that i
3:18 would wake up to a clinton presidency
3:20 because that's what all the polls were
3:22 showing and they were good polls like no
3:24 reason to doubt them but instead i woke
3:27 up with everyone else to this shocking
3:29 news the pollsters were wrong trump had
3:31 won and not clinton now as the numbers
3:33 were added up clinton did have a healthy
3:35 winning margin on the popular vote but
3:37 trump won the electoral college vote
3:38 which is you know all that matters so
3:40 that can't be the explanation so what
3:42 happened well researchers tried to
3:43 figure out what went wrong and they came
3:45 up with a list of potential explanations
3:47 and i'm only going to give you two first
3:48 they considered what's called the social
3:50 desirability bias and this is when
3:52 people are filling out surveys and they
3:53 give a socially desirable answer even if
3:55 they don't follow through with it in
3:57 other words when a pollster asks a
3:58 person for which candidate they're
3:59 likely to vote it would not be socially
4:01 acceptable to say i am not voting as
4:03 americans we see voting as kind of like
4:05 a sacred responsibility and so it could
4:07 be that a lot of people who said they
4:08 were going to vote didn't actually vote
4:10 another potential explanation is the
4:11 non-response bias which says that
4:13 certain groups are more likely to
4:14 respond to public opinion polls than
4:16 others think about it this way if
4:17 someone is standing with a clipboard in
4:19 a mall and asks me for a few minutes of
4:21 my time to respond to a survey i always
4:24 tell them no like i've got other things
4:25 to do i don't want to stop don't judge
4:27 me that's just how i am but there are
4:28 other kinds of people who feel really
4:30 uncomfortable telling a person no for
4:32 whatever reason so even if they don't
4:33 want to stop and respond to the survey
4:35 they're going to do it just because they
4:37 don't want to endure the uncomfortable
4:38 social interaction that is required to
4:40 tell that person no so think about it at
4:42 the end of the day that person
4:43 conducting the survey is only going to
4:45 have data from people who said yes and
4:47 precisely no data from people like me
4:49 who are fine saying no now it's a very
4:51 simple example and scientific polling
4:53 has methods to adjust for that kind of
4:54 bias but that was a potential
4:56 explanation for the polling failure of
4:57 2016. polster speculated that since
5:00 trump frequently spouted strong words
5:01 against establishment media his
5:03 supporters were perhaps less likely to
5:05 respond to polls and that could account
5:07 for the inaccuracy of the data
5:08 regardless that major polling failure
5:10 led to widespread criticism of public
5:12 opinion data the last thing i should say
5:14 is that non-scientific polls can affect
5:16 the relationship between polling data
5:17 and elections as well polls can be
5:19 funded by partisan groups or partisan
5:21 news outlets and they are designed to
5:22 show support for their own favored
5:24 interests and i shouldn't even have to
5:25 say this but i will these are not
5:28 reliable polls like if you see a
5:30 partisan news outlet showing public
5:31 opinion polls that heavily favor a
5:33 policy that is in line with their
5:34 particular partisan affiliation take it
5:36 with a grain of salt nay take it with a
5:38 metric butt load of salt because those
5:40 polls are in no way a reliable measure
5:42 of public opinion but unfortunately many
5:44 americans don't know the difference
5:46 between these kinds of polls in the
5:47 scientifically rigorous polls and thus
5:49 lump them all together further degrading
5:51 the public's trust and polling numbers
5:52 okay thanks for watching click right
5:53 here to grab review packet which is
5:54 going to help you get an a in your class
5:56 and a five on your exam in may if you're
5:57 helped by this video and you want me to
5:58 keep making them then by all means
5:59 subscribe and i shall oblige heimler out
Chrome Extension