YouTube Transcript:
Evaluating PUBLIC OPINION Data [AP Gov Review_ Unit 4 Topic 6 (4_6)]
Skip watching entire videos - get the full transcript, search for keywords, and copy with one click.
Share:
Video Transcript
hey there and welcome back to heimlich's history now we've been going through unit 4 of the ap government curriculum and in this video that means it's time to talk about the effects of public opinion on elections and policy debates so if you're ready to get them brain cows milked let's get to it okay as always let's start with our learning objective explain the quality and credibility of claims based on public opinion data so if you were here for the previous video we talked about how researchers use mass surveys and other means to measure public opinion on a wide variety of issues but they don't just do that for funsies they do it because public opinion affects elections and the outcomes of policy debates based on public opinion legislators know how much support they have for certain pieces of legislation based on public opinion candidates for office know how to appeal to people's actual desires but aside from those higher level effects public opinion polls have very real consequences maybe you've seen a presidential primary debate before this is where all the candidates for that party are contending to get the nomination to run for president now for the 2016 republican primaries there was roughly a metric butt load of contenders for the nomination and if you watch that debate you may have wondered how do they decide where to place each candidate on the stage i mean okay you probably weren't wondering that but whatever they did place these people on the stage according to their polling numbers so the candidate with the highest numbers will be placed at the center and then they fan out from there now why does that matter well it matters because the candidate in the center will draw more attention and the people who study these things tell us that the center-placed candidates usually have more speaking time than the rest and all of that is a result of how they fared in public opinion polls so you can start to see the power of the system like if a candidate is popular in opinion polls then that same candidate will be front and center in the primary debate which means more attention and hopefully more positive opinions made to the public and this can have a self-perpetuating effect in fact because of what's called the bandwagon effect people are more likely to get behind a candidate who is polling well because at the end of the day people don't want to back a loser they want to back a winner additionally candidates who have higher polling numbers have an easier time raising funds because again if you're polling well you're more likely to win and nobody wants to give money to a losing candidate so you can see that public opinion polls can have a powerful effect on the outcome of an election but in addition to election public opinions can have a strong effect on policy debate as well like if polls indicate that a majority of americans favor a given policy then politicians are more likely than not to vote for it on the other side of the coin if a policy is popular and a politician votes against it they are going to pay for it now i confess that recently that has not been as much the case like for example as the republican party has consistently tried to block very popular legislation embodied in president biden's infrastructure package they don't actually appear to be suffering any political disadvantage for doing this but even so in general what i said is usually how it works now what i've said so far is this public opinion polls have a significant influence over elections and policy debates and in a perfect world that is how it works however as is my custom i need to complicate this a little the relationship between public opinion polls and elections and policy debates can be affected by how people view the reliability of those opinion polls if you remember in the last video we talked about the principles of scientific polls and how if polls are conducted correctly according to scientific rigor then they are about the best tools we have for accurately measuring public opinion however that reliability has come into question recently not least because there have been a few spectacular blunders with poland probably the most recent and notable polling failure occurred in the 2016 presidential election between donald trump and hillary clinton according to the pollsters clinton was a shoo-in for victory in fact i could still remember going to bed about 10 o'clock that night convinced that i would wake up to a clinton presidency because that's what all the polls were showing and they were good polls like no reason to doubt them but instead i woke up with everyone else to this shocking news the pollsters were wrong trump had won and not clinton now as the numbers were added up clinton did have a healthy winning margin on the popular vote but trump won the electoral college vote which is you know all that matters so that can't be the explanation so what happened well researchers tried to figure out what went wrong and they came up with a list of potential explanations and i'm only going to give you two first they considered what's called the social desirability bias and this is when people are filling out surveys and they give a socially desirable answer even if they don't follow through with it in other words when a pollster asks a person for which candidate they're likely to vote it would not be socially acceptable to say i am not voting as americans we see voting as kind of like a sacred responsibility and so it could be that a lot of people who said they were going to vote didn't actually vote another potential explanation is the non-response bias which says that certain groups are more likely to respond to public opinion polls than others think about it this way if someone is standing with a clipboard in a mall and asks me for a few minutes of my time to respond to a survey i always tell them no like i've got other things to do i don't want to stop don't judge me that's just how i am but there are other kinds of people who feel really uncomfortable telling a person no for whatever reason so even if they don't want to stop and respond to the survey they're going to do it just because they don't want to endure the uncomfortable social interaction that is required to tell that person no so think about it at the end of the day that person conducting the survey is only going to have data from people who said yes and precisely no data from people like me who are fine saying no now it's a very simple example and scientific polling has methods to adjust for that kind of bias but that was a potential explanation for the polling failure of 2016. polster speculated that since trump frequently spouted strong words against establishment media his supporters were perhaps less likely to respond to polls and that could account for the inaccuracy of the data regardless that major polling failure led to widespread criticism of public opinion data the last thing i should say is that non-scientific polls can affect the relationship between polling data and elections as well polls can be funded by partisan groups or partisan news outlets and they are designed to show support for their own favored interests and i shouldn't even have to say this but i will these are not reliable polls like if you see a partisan news outlet showing public opinion polls that heavily favor a policy that is in line with their particular partisan affiliation take it with a grain of salt nay take it with a metric butt load of salt because those polls are in no way a reliable measure of public opinion but unfortunately many americans don't know the difference between these kinds of polls in the scientifically rigorous polls and thus lump them all together further degrading the public's trust and polling numbers okay thanks for watching click right here to grab review packet which is going to help you get an a in your class and a five on your exam in may if you're helped by this video and you want me to keep making them then by all means subscribe and i shall oblige heimler out
Share:
Paste YouTube URL
Enter any YouTube video link to get the full transcript
Transcript Extraction Form
How It Works
Copy YouTube Link
Grab any YouTube video URL from your browser
Paste & Extract
Paste the URL and we'll fetch the transcript
Use the Text
Search, copy, or save the transcript
Why you need YouTube Transcript?
Extract value from videos without watching every second - save time and work smarter
YouTube videos contain valuable information for learning and entertainment, but watching entire videos is time-consuming. This transcript tool helps you quickly access, search, and repurpose video content in text format.
For Note Takers
- Copy text directly into your study notes
- Get podcast transcripts for better retention
- Translate content to your native language
For Content Creators
- Create blog posts from video content
- Extract quotes for social media posts
- Add SEO-rich descriptions to videos
With AI Tools
- Generate concise summaries instantly
- Create quiz questions from content
- Extract key information automatically
Creative Ways to Use YouTube Transcripts
For Learning & Research
- Generate study guides from educational videos
- Extract key points from lectures and tutorials
- Ask AI tools specific questions about video content
For Content Creation
- Create engaging infographics from video content
- Extract quotes for newsletters and email campaigns
- Create shareable memes using memorable quotes
Power Up with AI Integration
Combine YouTube transcripts with AI tools like ChatGPT for powerful content analysis and creation:
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this tool really free?
Yes! YouTubeToText is completely free. No hidden fees, no registration needed, and no credit card required.
Can I translate the transcript to other languages?
Absolutely! You can translate subtitles to over 125 languages. After generating the transcript, simply select your desired language from the options.
Is there a limit to video length?
Nope, you can transcribe videos of any length - from short clips to multi-hour lectures.
How do I use the transcript with AI tools?
Simply use the one-click copy button to copy the transcript, then paste it into ChatGPT or your favorite AI tool. Ask the AI to summarize content, extract key points, or create notes.
Timestamp Navigation
Soon you'll be able to click any part of the transcript to jump to that exact moment in the video.
Have a feature suggestion? Let me know!Get Our Chrome Extension
Get transcripts instantly without leaving YouTube. Install our Chrome extension for one-click access to any video's transcript directly on the watch page.