The core theme is that a successful betting strategy relies solely on understanding and exploiting probability and value, rather than focusing on traditional metrics like team form or player skill.
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so when it comes to betting strategy there's only really one thing that
actually works the reason for it is based on facts maths and probability
it's a very same reason that bet365 annual revenue was two point nine eight
billion in 2019 they've got you all looking in the wrong direction you see
it doesn't matter if you pick a winner eight times out of ten spot a horse with
a good turn effort or even find a football team with new up-and-coming
players all of these things are what the traditional media will have you focus
your attention on and it's completely wrong as I'll prove to you in this
week's Youtube upload but it's not all doom and gloom because when you know how
betting strategy is incredibly simple especially when you consider all of the
tools and technology that's now available to bettors online so in this
video I'm going to explain what makes a successful betting strategy and where
you can find value for yourself all the pros know is fact the simplest way to
explains for an example imagine a two horse race where both horses are of
equal ability nothing separates them the law of probability dictates each horses
chance of winning is 50% like a coin flip no matter how many times we rerun
the race that average winning distribution is 50% now why am I telling
you this because at the core of every successful betting strategy there's
probability or implied chance as is sometimes referred to knowing the
implied chance is the most accurate way to gauge if betting odds are value or
not and to be successful you need value to win you see it doesn't matter if you
choose the right horse four times out of five in the example if you weren't
getting value the short-term results would be random distribution but over
the long term you'd lose it's a fact the true payout is in line with probability
this is exactly what bookmakers make so much money simple maths they take the
probability of something happening and convert the price into betting odds and
then offer you a lower one so to have a successful betting strategy you must do
the complete opposite it's the only thing that works this of course leads us
to the most important question how do you identify value next I'll tell you
but before I do I'd like to ask you a favor if you find this video of you
tap the like button down below and subscribe to this channel please so how
do you identify value for your betting strategy first you need to know the
implied chance of an outcome or true odds as if sometimes referred to but
this can be a problem as it's a complicated task so it suggests a far
quicker and easier way that everybody can do just look at the betting
exchanges close to the start is the closest indicator to true odds you'll
find especially when you learn how to factor in trading volumes the reason
this works is simple wisdom of the crowd a well-documented phenomenon based on
the law of averages being close to the event start is also important as it
provides the most efficient result with a larger data sample this is only the
first part though as we'll give you a good indication of true price then you
need to find a bigger price on that outcome by doing this you'll massively
increase the amount you win the more you do it the more you'll win a quick
example to illustrate that would be if your selections got a 25% chance of
winning that odds should be 4.0 if you get the 20% price even though your bet
has a 25% chance of winning that's a 5 percent profit margin over the long term
so if you bet 10 pounds a 4.0 over a hundred sample bets you've more than
likely breakeven with 25 winning bets of 40 pound total in a thousand pound
return which is of course the same amount you staked in the first place 100
bets a 10 pound now if we take the same sample and add in our 5% margin the
result is as follows 10 pound at 5.0 over a hundred bets you get 25 winning
bets of 50 pound total in return of 1,250 pound but you need to remember you
only risked that same 1000 pound in the previous example it doesn't take rocket
scientist to realize that's 250 pound value for you but thats not all there's
more to maximizing profit which is where it gets really interesting so once you
know the true price and find one of value we move to staking because that's
another part of the puzzle the stakes must be relative to value if there's a
bigger margin state bigger it's simple like a business if you had a product
with a bigger margin and there's opportunity to do so you should work
hard to sell more of those items doing the opposite is just plain stupid
but everything's about price not the horse team or player they're pretty
irrelevant the easiest way to find value is in change one of my favorite quotes
hits a now square on the head in times of change learners inherit the earth
while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with world
that no longer exists successful betting strategy is no
different sports with fast changing odds are the easiest way to find value horse
racing and greyhounds are prime examples particularly in the final ten minutes
before the event starts learning about what moves a price is key in this respect
anticipating a move and being one of the first to exploit price is the most
reliable betting strategy you'll come across it's an in-depth topic so check
out the video courses at Caan Berry for proper guidance and support the
number one thing you don't want to do is make decisions based on gut feeling or
fancy or even worse follow a tipster particularly if they want you to click
their link talking of which check out these two videos that are previously
published on this YouTube channel and don't forget to subscribe
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