The world has made significant progress in reducing poverty and improving living standards due to industrial revolutions, but the current Fourth Industrial Revolution, driven by automation and AI, poses a threat to the middle class and societal stability by polarizing employment opportunities.
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Two humans enter a bar
the older one says,
we’ve given you young ones of today everything on a plate
the younger one says: that’s not necessarily a good thing
sorry... he’s still not very good at telling jokes
one question
What do you think the future will be like?
or wait...
even easier, do you think the world’s getting better or worse?
for example, those who think the world’s getting worse
imagine that we’re heading towards a more unequal world
a greater divide between north and south
that the part of humanity without healthcare or education is staying stagnant
or even growing
that there are a lot of poor people
and just a few rich
those who believe the contrary
usually imagine a less radical divide
let’s say a more equal world
and many believe that extreme poverty
will be eradicated soon
let’s find out who’s right
in 1960, 60% of the world population lived in a situation
of extreme poverty
that is, on less than 2 dollars a day
do you think that number has gone down these past years?
has it grown?
or has it remained the same?
well, it’s actually considerably lower
today, only 10% of the world population
lives in extreme poverty
in fact, the world’s wealth is not divided between a large part of the population that is poor and a rich minority
that was up until the 60’s
now, the majority of the population tends to group around the middle
in the 60’s, only a little over half of the population had basic education
today, it’s 86%
it looks like we’ve also improved here, doesn’t it?
in the 60’s, being vaccinated against things like
diphtheria, whooping cough, or tetanus was very rare
this meant that of every 100 children, 20 died before the age of 5
today, 86% are vaccinated
only 4% of children in the world die before the age of 5
wait... so then why do we often have the opposite impression?
that the world is getting worse
in his videos, the statistician Hans Rosling
explains it better than I do
we suffer from something we could call
social pessimism
when we don’t know something about the world
our brain usually believes that we are the same as yesterday or are even worse
but as you’ve seen, we’re usually much better than we think
what’s more, if we go back, we’re able to appreciate how spectacular the leap has been
94% of humanity lived in extreme poverty 200 years ago
how have we managed to progress so much?
for many reasons, obviously
but there’s one that’s really important
the industrial revolutions
the first one
saw the invention of the steam engine
that’s when everything began to change
the second
saw the arrival of electricity
and with it, the telephone
the telegraph, radio, cars...
yes, the very first cars were electric
and here just before this take-off
the third industrial revolution
computers
the industrial revolutions brought about incredible changes
first, they practically did away with craftsmen
the people who, for example, made clothing or furniture
one person handled the entire process
design, manufacture, sale...
now
for each small task there were specialised workers
who did the work much faster
with the help of a machine
in order to train this new type of worker
the modern education system emerged
but we’ll talk about that later
it was easier to manufacture things
and so the price of basic products went down
given that the new fertilisers and medications were produced in large quantities
both agriculture and medicine took off
and we began to live much longer
the industrial revolutions
also introduced an idea
the virtuous circle
production grew
thanks to technological innovations
and a better prepared workforce
the wages of these workers went up
consumption increased because there were many products
and people with better wages
companies obtained bigger profits
so there was an interest in increasing production
because more people were being hired
wages kept going up and so on forever
this virtuous circle explains the birth of the so-called middle class
the group in which everyone could afford a house, a car and a television
my parents explained this to me as: we are neither rich nor poor
most of the people are in the middle
do you remember?
now the majority of the population tends to group around
also, the middle class formed a kind of ladder
which you could climb from lower paying jobs to executive positions
we’ve all heard the story of someone who started as a bell boy
and ended up being the chairman of a company
but looking at the virtuous circle
someone came up with a different way to obtain profits
without having to increase workers’ wages
relocation
relocating production to countries where wages were lower
it sounds really bad
but it has also helped the following to occur
according to the UN, in 1991, in developing countries almost half of the population lived in extreme poverty
the middle class barely reached 5%
the ladder was heading down
right now, the ladder has been turned around
the middle class has tripled in size
and the largest group is no longer in extreme poverty
but rather in what the UN refers to as the developing middle class
people that are close to making the leap to the middle class
in the developing world, the employment lost through relocation
was offset, because it coincided with the boom in private services
such as stores,
communications, tourism, hotel & catering, banks...
but also state-run services, such as healthcare or public transport
that provided jobs for all those people
right then... let’s summarise a bit
so the world is getting better, right?
and a bright future awaits us
middle class for everyone!
if you can’t see it, it’s because of social pessimism
affecting your poor brain
is that true?
it was...
but the virtuous circle worked very well during the second industrial revolution
and we’re no longer in the second, or the third
we’re starting the fourth industrial revolution
remember...
the three first industrial revolutions created lots of specialised work
this person only makes car doors
this one only makes steering wheels
this one assembles the chassis
and this one deals with the wheels
and it’s repetitive work
that was carried out with the help of machines
but now, in the fourth industrial revolution
one type of machine has become so good at that specialised
and repetitive job that it no longer needs us
computers
factories are no longer like that
they are becoming this
you may think this doesn’t affect you because where you live there have been no factories for a long time
but this doesn’t just happen in factories
we are generating increasingly more information each day
today, your mobile phone provides information about your whereabouts
what you’ve purchased, read, whom you’ve been in touch with
but this also happens with household appliances, vehicles or the robots in the actual factories
they send data to companies about their status, how much they’re used, how they’re used...
what they call the Internet of Things
until now, to process all that data
we’ve had huge departments handling accounts, administration, marketing
maintenance... millions of people doing specialised, repetitive
data-based work
but now we have someone who loves
specialised, repetitive, data-based work
someone who obeys blindly and expects no wage
or rest
bingo
computers
how much specialised and repetitive work is there in our society?
there are studies such as this one from Oxford University that say that in the US
47% of employment is just like that
specialised and repetitive
in countries like Spain
studies such as this
indicate figures of around 36%
we’re saying that almost half of our jobs
could be performed by computers
this is what they call
the automation of work
now, attention please
the majority
of this specialised and repetitive employment
is paid an average wage
neither rich people’s wages
nor poor people’s wages
in other words...
textbook middle class
by doing away with
this specialised and repetitive employment
we are doing away with the middle class
mainly
in truth, computers don’t really distinguish between the rich and the poor
they’re also going to do away with the upper-class jobs
in medicine there are certain specialties that involve spending
a lot of time comparing large quantities of information on one patient
after another
after another
repetition
specialisation
and data
and you already know who loves this shit
so that’s what this video’s about
about how computers or robots, or algorithms
or artificial intelligence, or whatever you want to call them
are going to steal our jobs
no, not exactly
as you’ll recall
already in the first industrial revolution
the machines did away with the craftsmen
but they also created hundreds of new jobs to operate those same machines
there are studies that say that over the next four years
automation will destroy 75 million jobs
the last great crisis destroyed 30 million
but it will also create 133 million jobs
routine jobs are disappearing from factories
but people will be required to supervise, programme or design the robots
the same is happening in the rest of companies
a computer programme may destroy thousands of jobs
but people will be required to supervise
the programmes and algorithms and make the best decisions
in other words, we’re creating new jobs
and very well-paid ones at that
the problem is they also require a high level of studies
and that isn’t something everyone can afford
but not only is there a need for people to lead or supervise
another type of work is being created at the other end
one that computers still can’t do
and this work is accessible to almost everyone
but it’s shitty work, badly-paid
and extremely temporary
think of fast-food ‘riders’
or those apps where people do all sorts of things for 20 Euros
what the Economy Professor Guy Standing would call precarious employment
that’s what the video’s about
automation
is creating a world that has above all
high-paying jobs and low-paying jobs
where before there was a ladder you could climb
even if you started at a low-paying job
now there’s going to be
a wall
of all the people who are going to be left out
those who can afford to study whatever is required to access this type of employment
will get the jobs
the rest
will stall here, with no chance to climb up
this is called polarisation
we’re dividing society
into two separate poles
many studies confirm this
the low-paying jobs
and high-paying jobs
are the only jobs that are growing
meanwhile, many middle class jobs are in danger
this is happening in Europe
in the US.
and everywhere in the world
and the reason
is that the majority of specialised
and repetitive jobs
many of them based on processing data
that are disappearing as a result of automation
are here
in the middle
we’re at risk of going back
to a more divided society
rich
and poor
just like before the industrial revolution
this is a fucking catastrophe
remember... the virtuous circle
the middle class isn’t just useful for making purchases
and to help boost production
they also pay the majority of the taxes
which a country uses to build what they call the welfare state
a healthcare system for everyone
pensions, state schools, employment benefits for the unemployed
if we destroy the middle class
we are blowing up... society
but I have good news
oh, right no, that comes later
no, I have bad news
and you’re already viewing this video and still haven’t got a job
you’re studying, training to try and get a job
in such a complicated future
in order to train this new type of worker
the modern education system emerged
but we’ll talk about that later
the problem with this education system
is that it’s mainly based
on memorising facts
completing repetitive exercises
specialising in one thing
and following orders
do you think I’m exaggerating?
in 2017
in the entrance exam for the best University in Japan
a robot already achieved a better grade than 80% of the students
the Project Director said she was alarmed at how a non-intelligent machine
performed better than our own children
computers have exceeded all our expectations
in processing data quickly
completing repetitive exercises
specialising in one thing
and following orders
and they’re going to continue to do just that
when we created them
we believed their calculating power would increase like this
realistically, it’s growing like this
there are those who say that by 2030
they’ll exceed the calculation capacity of a human brain
meanwhile
we’re still set on educating our youth by
memorising facts
completing repetitive exercises
asking them to specialise in one thing
and to follow orders
preparing them for jobs
that are on the verge of disappearing
unless they are a part of that society
that will indeed be able to afford that extra training required
to be here
I repeat
it’s impossible
to compete with computers in this
technology isn’t the problem
we are the problem
we’ve been preparing ourselves for centuries
to become a species of mediocre artificial intelligence
but
surprise!
true artificial intelligence has finally arrived
so...
is this the video’s message?
that up until now, we’d been doing OK
but that the fourth industrial revolution is pushing us towards disaster?
I would rather you wait before drawing any conclusions
everything I’ve said
has a hidden side
and I need you to know about it
there’s a reason, which is not very well-known,
why no politician is talking about this
and I’d like to propose to you a way to start changing this
it’s all in
#miempleomifuturo 2 (myemploymentmyfuture 2)
click here to view it
or search for #miempleomifuturo 2 (myemploymentmyfuture 2) on YouTube
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