This webinar discusses the current state and future outlook of North American inbound tourism to Europe, focusing on market trends, traveler preferences, and the evolving landscape of responsible tourism.
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Well,
good afternoon, good morning, uh,
wherever we are. Um, uh, I'm going to
wait a couple of minutes to let the, um,
delegates come in. We've got a number of
delegates registered for this event. So,
if you give me a minute, we'll let
Okay. Um well, welcome. Um good morning
and good afternoon. Good evening for
those of you joining from Asia. I didn't
think we had too many Asian delegates
today, but you never know. They're
welcome, too. Um um welcome to this um
um really un unveiling ceremony almost
for showcase outbound North America
which is an event which is taking place
in March. Um all the details concerning
um the North American edition of
Showcase are available on the website
and um you can use the UR code there to
access it or you can just access it
straight through the EOA site. Um thank
you very much for that board. Um let's
proceed with the webinar. Um one thing I
would say before we get going is that a
number of you have sent through um
questions. I'm really grateful for you
doing so. We will get to them I hope in
due course. But please put comments and
questions in the uh discussion area that
you've got there. It really helps us um
because we know we're going to have
quite an important discussion. Um, but
it really helps us getting a
conversation going if people are leaving
comments and and questions in the Q&A or
the comment area. Well, first of all,
thank you so much for joining me, Brett,
and thank you so much for joining me,
Terry. You're both old friends of Etoa
and um your regular appearance here. I
really don't think I need to introduce
you, but why don't you just introduce
yourselves just in case there's someone
who's not that familiar with you, Brett,
please? Over to you.
Welcome everyone. My name is Brett
Walker. I am uh we're I'm the general
manager uh for Canada and international
operations for Colette, but I also am
chair of the Canadian Association of
Tour Operators, Kato.
>> And Terry and Tom, it's great to be here
with you. Terry Dale, I've had the honor
of serving as USO's president and CEO
for 15 years.
It seems such a short amount of time.
It's flown, Terry. Um, and um, I'm Tom
Jenkins for those of you fortunate
enough not to know me. Um, I'm from ETA
and I've been here uh, longer than
Terry. I think I've been here since 98.
So, getting on closing on 30 years, but
not quite. Sometimes don't draw any
conclusions from that statement. Um the
um look just as an opening gambit um
North America um lies at the soul of
inbound tourism certainly longhaul
inbound tourism for Europe um it's
defines um the industry in some ways and
much of what you see when you go around
Europe and experience in terms of hotels
and in terms of the itineraries and in
terms of the things that people go to
look at and enjoy and the way they go to
look at and enjoy has been shaped by
North American demand over the last 100
years. And so um it is rightly the the
gold standard and I I would um also
point out that people talk about
evolving markets and all markets are
important. New markets are particularly
welcome but um one year's fluctuation in
demand more or less from the from North
America equals almost the entire volume
of people coming from most Asian
markets. So it's utterly central and
critical to ETA's membership how well
North America performs and I think on
the whole um it's been performing
extremely well since co and I just
actually will start off if I may cherry
to ask him you know what is how do you
how does he think looking back 25 went
how did it go
>> you know I'm I'm happy to say Tom that
we had a very solid year and it goes
without saying, you know, Europe is our
bread and butter. So, how Europe goes is
how uh the rest of our global membership
goes. So, we ended 2025
with 2thirds of our tour operator
members uh having an increase in sales
and passenger numbers and 55% of that
group had increases
10% and higher.
So we started last year January with a
pretty healthy robust outlook and then a
term that we use in the industry all the
time. It was a roller coaster ride in 25.
25.
Uh but at what matters most is we ended
in a very solid healthy situation and
Europe was central to that. So we did it
with with our good partners over there
in Europe. I I I'm I'm just intrigued.
You said it was a roller coaster. I mean,
mean,
what drove the roller coaster up and
down, a roller coaster,
>> you know, uh March was a critical month
and uh we had change of administration
and we had stock market fluctuations as
well as the strength of the dollar. So,
we went through a somewhat of a quiet period,
period,
but then things did eventually pick up
and when they did, it was fairly strong
and we ended good. We ended good, but it
was a it was a roller coaster.
>> Yeah. Brad, how how were things from Canada?
Canada?
>> Ditto. But, um, yeah, it was it was um
it was um
there was some disruption for sure. Um,
and there was a lot of rhetoric
which influenced a lot of travel demand
and I think everyone's aware that the
the north south travel uh between Canada
and the US was
disrupted and uh there was a pivot and
to Terry's point um a lot of a lot of
Canadians who would have otherwise
chosen to vacation south of the border
either canceled and made other
arrangements and Europe benefited from
that Europe and and other destinations
afar but that transborder uh travel had
um there was a pause uh around that
February March time period there's just
a lot of unknowns but uh when things
began to settle
we found that our our our our certainly
the demand curve for Europe went up and
the year ended absolutely better than
expected. Uh Terry, I I agree your
numbers are probably from those I've
talked to, I would say more in the 10 to
15% range. For for those companies for
which Europe is important, virtually
everyone, uh the the the year finished
off much better than expected. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> I mean,
this is heartening news. Um and looking
forward, I mean, Brett, can I just stay
with you? What's what are the prospects
for 26?
So I think um what I'm hearing what I'm
seeing is that there's a bit of a
softening of demand and I think that's
because of the fact there was this
extreme pit in 2025 and um those people
who had chosen or were choosing to
travel south of the border either win
Canadian snowbirds who would otherwise
winter in Florida or spend time in
wherever. um made a um a conscious
choice not to and and travel to to
Europe the 2026 because of the advanced
booking window for many tour operators
as Terry and I have mentioned before
that sweet spot is somewhere between 8
to 10 months for many operators some uh
it's tighter but from a from the
advanced booking perspective Europe is
and destinations around the world but
Europe is doing ve very well I would I
would imagine that 2020 26 from my
perspective right now based on how
things are trending
is go the the the growth year-over-year
isn't going to be quite as as much as it
was in 2026. But I would attribute that
not to a lessening of demand from a
Canadian perspective. I would attribute
it that to the the big pivot that
happened in 2025 and um and it's it's
normalized now, but we're seeing a good
growth year for 2026 for sure. Very
Very
>> agreed. Uh so first it's important for
me to share that this survey that I'm referencing
referencing
uh was fielded in the month of October
which is like an eternity ago. So our
forecast for 2026
is one that's fairly healthy. Again, 3/4
of our members are projecting growth in
sales and passengers and 55% say it'll
be between 7 and 10%.
Brett had uh mentioned some, you know,
quiet times a little bit uh and some
softening. That could very well be the
case, but at least we enter the year
with optimism, probably cautious
optimism, uh knowing that our world
could be turned upside down tomorrow.
But yeah, we we see a good base of
business and certainly Europe is key to that.
that.
I mean it just from our point of view
firstly it's really heartening um to be
told and uh I'm told this in Asia as
well that um it's sometimes Europe
worries about their continued relevance
and importance in in origin markets and
what we tend to forget and you've just
reemphasized it is actually it's a
really important big business selling
Europe in in the origin markets if you
take Europe out of the picture And um
that's a big hole in people's margins.
This is particularly the case in Asia.
This is not the topic of our
conversation today, but certainly um we
think we've got a problem with um not
the same volumes of Japanese coming into
Europe as they used to. Japan has got a
problem, but they're not the same volume
of Japanese going to Europe as they used
to. So um
>> and Tom, I would just add, you know,
when I say Europe is our bread and
butter. So, our top 20 countries based
on passenger numbers and sales revenue,
14 out of the 20 are European
>> and that's been pretty darn consistent.
And so, you're you're you're central to everything.
everything.
>> Well, that's what a nice what a nice
sentiment to to kick off what I wanted
to hear already. The first thing now um
people have very kindly sent us some uh
questions and in advance which is great
and um I'm just going to um start posing
them if I may because um we're going to
have more I know coming in online. We've
got uh nearly 200 people in the audience
already and we've uh got um probably
another two to 300 uh waiting to see the
recording. But uh very quickly um we've
heard um I think you know which these
are so complicated questions we're not
going to cover them all but I will skim
across them from ways to wander. We've
got what which product types are booking
fastest? Um escorted tours fit small
groups or tailor-made itineraries. Um I
suppose you can take your pick from
that. And the second question is are
travelers prioritizing flexibility or
price certainty? Um are there any
geopolitical, economic or operational
concerns? I think um there are so many
questions I don't know how we answer
them all. I think the first question
just to tackle was which product types
do you think are are currently on trend?
Terry, can I ask you that question? Is
there anything?
>> Yeah. Yeah. I tell you, sometimes I feel
like um a broken record, but river
cruising is so in demand and will
continue to be, I think, in the
foreseeable future and small groups.
Absolutely. And uh I don't know, it's
just uh I feel like I've been talking
about multigenerational travel forever,
but it's still it seems to strengthen.
those boomers are wanting to take their
grandkids and their children on an
experience hopefully to Europe. So, some
of the basic things, but certainly river
cruising continues to dominate. It seems
>> well, there were a lot of questions in
there, but um Tom, but the uh definitely
this is not only anecdotal, but
quantifiable small groups is um the the
real takeaway in my opinion. Um, I'm
hearing that from every company, from
every company type, whether it's uh
escorted guided touring the likes of
which Travel Corp, Globist, Colette does
where you're doing series blocks, or
whether it's um component type operators
here in Canada, a redteag.ca or others
who would um be packaging car rental,
hotel with flights, whatever. or whether
it's um
custom touring, fit touring, the likes
of what again I'm referencing companies
here in Canada, the likes of GOWay would
do. I'm hearing it right across the
board that and and of course small group
is also being promoted by organizations
like Etoa and etc. in terms of the
messaging, right? People are hearing it.
People are definitely much more
considerate, much more conscious about
responsible, regenerative. These things
are meaning something now. We talked
about them before, but it's really
becoming part of the overall travel
experience that people are considering
when they travel along with the fact
that over tourism is a turnoff for I
mean for in so many ways, right? Um so
for all those reasons, small group
touring I think is you know checks all
the boxes and um that's yeah for me it's
small group touring. >> Y
>> Y
>> I I
I'm not here to question that. I'm just
thinking um and maybe I'm showing my
age, but the speaking as an oldfashioned
group tour operator, which I was uh
before I took over this job many many
years ago, the idea of focusing on small
groups would have been complete anthem
to me. Um you know, you'd have you your
goal was to get 48 people on a 48 seat
coach. Thank you very much. And um
anything less than that was a lost
opportunity. and focusing on break
points of below
uh 30 or 32 would have been an admission
of failure. Now we're talking about the
small groups of 20 to 25 people and the
fixed costs are enormous and your
ability to defrain them is quite
shocking. Now um so people what you're
saying is um this isn't price in the
same way as it used to be. uh this is um
you know the appeal of being with fewer
people is is actually you know we can we
can defay the cost of that people are
willing to pay that money. Is that what
we were saying bro?
>> Well and Tom I think the other thing and
we realized this as a company and I
think every those I talked to have
retention rates are so much higher with
small group touring. So you yes there's
there's fixed costs there's the if you
think about it financially right it may
one would think it we shouldn't be u
moving in this direction because it it's
much much more difficult to scale right
but what I think most operators have
found is when you consider the retention
um the quality scores that you'll
receive uh are so much higher with small
group and that's quantifiable and the
cost of acquisition goes way down
because your retention rate goes way up
>> and so I think that's the driving force
and why this small group movement is
pardon the pun sustainable because while
the the you know there's a huge cost to
acquiring new clients and if you can
keep more of them based on the
experience that you deliver then it's
offset or even potentially um an advantage.
>> No, Brett Brett is completely correct
that the cost of acquisition, sourcing
new customers, uh, but having the
success of retaining them year-over-year,
year-over-year,
that's when you benefit, you profit as a
tour operator. So, you know, and you
mentioned 20 to 25. I continue to hear
12 to 15. You know, we're talking small
groups. Uh but the value is there for
people who want that 12 to 15. And so,
it's it's here to stay. Well, well,
we're thinking on to the next question
that we've got, which was um actually
from uh um visit Scotland, which um
sorry, I've momentarily lost the
questions, but I'll get them back in a
second. The um the um
um just what aspects of responsible
travel and tourism resonate most with
your audience?
and where should Scotland where should a
destination focus its efforts to ensure
that this translates into real demand
rather than just sentiment. So I mean
what do we mean by responsible travel I
think is the question I I I would float
to you and then which bits of it um
actually echo with customer Terry you
start off with if you may please.
>> Okay. Well, I'm proud to say that uh the
vast majority of our USA members have
a fast and hard sustainability policy
that comes from their core culture. So,
the next hurdle for us is the supply
chain and making sure that our suppliers
that we partner with share those same
values. And I think ultimately to answer
the question from Scotland is that if
the consumer feels that not only does
Globus or the Travel Corporation have
this value or set of values but their
entire chain shares that and therefore
it starts having more impact and meaning
if it's the entire experience. Now,
we've got a long ways to go uh as far as
bringing our suppliers into the fold. Uh
but uh I think it it resonates if
there's a sense that all the different
pieces, the elements of the experience
are meaningful, they're responsible in
their actions, and that's good for our
industry, and it's good for the planet. Brad.
>> Well, um, this doesn't all happen
overnight and there's a certain amount
of incrementalism to this, right? Um,
these conversations that started out
five, six, seven years ago, where we're
at today, um, it's taken a long time and
um, but I would say the most important
part of this uh, notion of of um,
regenerative travel is education.
um when it's not just what the industry
is doing, it's educating why it's
important. And when people understand
why it's important, they they ultimately
lean into it and then it be again this
is this incrementalism, right? It's not
just supplier or you know a few people
it becomes um you know two and 3% all
the time and it um that creates a
movement. Education is a really really
important part of this when we're
talking about authenticity, you know,
loving local. Um when there's these
themes, what does that mean and why is
it important? And I could think of so
many examples I won't get into right
now, but um many operators are choosing
to um include for example local produce
wherever they go. And that may mean
we're not including certain things that
become are habitual, right? But when you
educate people as to why we're including
this, why we're not including this,
we're supporting local farmers. We're,
you know, supporting uh where we are,
the region, people begin to nod and and
begin to understand why. And then they
begin to believe it. And then the next
time they think about making a trip,
they're going to have that in the back
of their mind. And it becomes this transformational
transformational
thing. Again, doesn't happen overnight.
It happens slowly, but bit by bit. So um
yeah, I think this this as Terry
mentioned, I think this um this notion
of s people call a lot of things sustain
sustainability, regenerative travel, um
authenticity, whatever it may be, is is
is uh is not being driven by any any one
uh side or another, but it's just
happening and we see it and it's going
to it's going to continue. Mhm.
>> I mean, what what you're saying is that
this is really almost an essential
component in your quality portfolio as a
as an operator. It's a component. Um,
but they're not going to um go for, you
know, an authentic
um Scottish Borthy if what they really
want is a five-star hotel. You know,
just sort of being being realistic here.
There's there's levels of authenticity
which people will probably shy clear of
um that um and they would prefer to have
you know a hot shower and a private
bathroom. Thank you very much. Um rather
than a spade um and a 100 yard walk. I I
I think that the um you know there
levels of authenticity which we we we
gently gloss over but there is um
nevertheless this is an element in what
what people are requiring. Is that what
you're saying,
>> Tom? There are a thousand shades of
gray. You're right. But I think that
increasingly there is an expectation
whether I'm going to play around a golf
uh and or whether I'm doing some sort of
cultural immersion. There is a level of
expectation which will be very
different. Um um Tom Terry mentioned uh
intergenerational travel and I think it
will be very different between the ages
too, right? and and and and
generational. So, but there's a but I do
believe that there is increasingly this
level of expectation, whatever level
that may be that you can't ignore.
>> Agreed. Yeah. Okay. You you got a one
syllable answer from Mr.
um uh I I want to just press you a
little bit more on the sentiment side
because to me, you know, what is
sustainable? And I'm I I'm I'm genuinely
not questioning it, but I'm just
intrigued. I mean, I'm sitting there in
discussions uh with city authorities uh
discussing access to city centers and
I'm going look if you if you really want
to cut congestion
and you really want to cut emissions and
you want to be as sustainable as
possible, what you want is 48 people on
a 48 seated chart pledge. There are
there's nothing there are very few
things that generate such low emissions
and reduce congestion. You can put 48
seats as people on bicycles, but if you
want to generate congestion, 48 bicycles
going down a road is one of the great
ways of doing so. I can assure you. So
to me, you know, this in some ways is
the paradigm model of sustainability
and reduction of over tourism and
action, oddly enough, is is a
sightseeing coach. And you're saying
actually, well, you know, that's not how
it's perceived. Um Tom, this is you know
what people perceive themselves doing is
being explorers traveling in small
groups with people they know and uh
exploring um exploring the destination
rather than just seeing the destination
having an experiential time. Uh and I'm
saying that a lot of this is sentiment
but that's what sells vacation. So I'm
not questioning for one moment that the
sentiments not unimportant. I'm just
just wondering whether there's a
disconnection between the reality of
responsible tourism and the appearance
of responsible tourism. And um I uh I I
I throw that out at you to be shot down
if you want Brett.
>> Well, sorry. I I I uh am going to use a
term that Brett used earlier and that's education.
education.
And I think it's an opportunity for your
membership and my membership and KO. We
have a huge education opportunity with
whether it's a city council, a regional,
you know, county, but
we have to somehow get our message about
responsible, meaningful travel and its
impact. And uh I just had a government
affairs committee call yesterday and one
of the messages that came through very
loudly was, you know, you and Tom and Brett
Brett
need to work more collaboratively
together when it comes to whether it's
uh sustainable travel, responsible,
however you want to frame it. But I I
think the opportunity is all around what
Brett said and that's education. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
We need to take these people on a tour.
They need to understand it. This is what
we need. This is what we need to do. You
need a good tour guide. That's what we
Okay, next question is the thing that we
need to get on to.
>> Um, right. Um, from Aanti West Coast, a
well-known member of everybody, I think.
Um, what are the key drivers of
transatlantic tourism 26? And what's
going to be the impact of the World Cup
on the number of journeys made to the UK
from USA? Are the airlines seeing
specific trends?
Well, that's uh what's the key drivers
and what about the World Cup? Uh Terry,
>> Well, that's what what about the World
Cup? So, at our congressional caucus uh
this past June, uh we had Andrew
Giuliani, whose father is Rudy Giuliani,
and President Trump appointed Andrew as
the executive director of the World Cup
for the States.
And so, having a a relationship with New
York City politics over my career, I
invited Andrew to come and and speak at
our caucus. And he did. Hey, you know,
it's going to be massive.
uh it's going to be a challenge but you
know somehow uh we always figure it out
and I think it'll be a a a huge success
but I don't know the impact as far as
airline seats and so on and so forth but um
um
>> you know I think I think what's key is
let's let's have a safe
experience for everyone who attends
World Cup, you know, that's first and foremost.
foremost.
>> Um Brett,
>> yeah, I personally don't I don't see it
as um I mean, obviously we're all going
to be engaged. It's like any mega event,
right? um it's going to disrupt um those
places in which it it's being housed for
sure and it will create some capacity
issues for sure but on the whole um I
don't think it's going to have a a
material effect in terms of um trans
global like travel the types that we you
know Terry's members and and KO members
do we're certainly not having I I don't
see think everyone's seeing any any
downturn or effect right now it's
something to be considerate of in terms
of how we operationalize, right? In
terms of but that would be true of the
Olympics too or wherever. So I I'm it's
not really there's other issues uh Tom
that are confounding me right now. World
Cup is not
>> I I tend to agree with you. It's it's um
these things any mega event and um we've
got we've got history on this subject.
appreciate. So we need to roll back a
little bit, but any mega event um
uh causes a disproportionate amount of noise
noise
um in the tourism sphere. Um I think
when you actually look at what is
actually happening um you know there is
a game taking place in a city with a set
number of tickets being sold. very few
people and it occasionally happens. I
would say it never happens. There's very
unlikely people will be traveling around
the United States to be in the city
where the game is if they don't have a
ticket. Um and these cities regularly
host events where the stadium uh we
don't talk about the virtue of small
events on these things. Maybe we should
have expand small um football games, but
the um the the the
there are very few these none of these
cities burst when they hold national,
you know, an American football game or
baseball. Um you're not dealing with
extraordinary crowds here. You're
dealing with normal crowds that attend
sporting occasions. And so you cannot
expect a massive exodus from Europe to
witness this particularly the prices
being asked. I think you know you know a
lot of people can be going to be put off
by that. And lastly I would just merely
say that if you want to know about the
impact of an event don't go particularly
the tourism impact of an event. It's
best to avoid the person organizing that
event. Their job is to sell the dream
and the hype. uh not the reality. Um and
I think you'll find that most
destinations that hosted Olympic games
or World Cups or any of these huge
events see very very little u short-term
or even long-term benefit. Um these
places um function what we're dealing
with is not tourism. It's the opposite.
It's a it's a one-off event. Um and
people are not traveling for the reasons
nor people normally travel for tourism.
The last thing I'd say is if you look at
um in the UK we have a television
program called Match of the Day which
has been broadcast for um over 60 years
and um no one associates watching Match
of the Day with people choosing where to
go on holiday. It it's it's not uh it's
not a where to go on holiday program. Uh
the World Cup will not be a where to go
on holiday event. Okay, on that thought.
Um but are there any trends? Are there
any trends we want to know about? Sorry,
we've been um rude about the World Cup,
but we should say we're all looking
forward to it, but the um what are the
are there any particular trends you can
spot at the moment? What's up? I What
what destinations are hot? Are there any
ones that are cool, but in the wrong
sense? Um,
>> yeah, you know, here's I'm going to
speak the truth again and uh um this,
you know, I really hope that uh at some
point uh um you know, Terry and I will
say the same thing on this this
people-to-people exchange. People are
people, right? And I can't wait for the
situation between Canada and the US to
normalize again and to see this
transporter trend trend up. And um we
all have friends, family, people we know
and love on both sides. But if I um if I
could, you know, a trend that's
happening point, you know, from Canada
and it's quantifiable, anyone could go
on stats Canada and look at the look at
the the drop in in travel to southbound
to the US and see what's trending up.
Overseas travel is trending way way up
uh from Canada. overseas travel,
transporter travel is traveling way
down. So if I was a hotel, an operator,
a destination in Europe right now, I
would think the Canadian market is is is
ripe because people are it's just what's
happened and it's not a pivot anymore.
It's not a trend. It's just at this
point in time there's not a lot of
appetite to travel to the US which where
there would have absolutely have been.
And interestingly even um there's been
lots of studies out one of our biggest
real estate companies uh um uh um Royal
Apage Royal Laage um did interviewed um
home uh res um Canadians who have
property in the US and over half are
thinking of selling. Well, that capital
then becomes fungeible, right? They may
choose to buy a home in Canada or
elsewhere in Portugal or wherever or
Spain or they may use it to travel. So
there's um then there's economic
uncertainty too. We're um Terry and I
and and then the two countries are
involved in the the Canada US Mexico
free trade
agreement. Who knows what will happen
with that? That could create a lot of
uncertainty. What I'm talking about now
in terms of the the the appetite for
traveling abroad could if the can you
know whatever happens right with it that
could create uncertainty. right now um
there is a real um appetite for
Canadians uh to travel to Europe and
elsewhere in particular Europe in a
normal year because travel is endemic to
Canadians as it is to Americans but it
is really really endemic to Canadians.
And I used to tell people and this is
true of uh when Terry and I did the
visit Britain um symposium a few months
back Canada is onetenth onetenth the
size of the US but then in data the data
speaks for this and it's often 15 the
volume so small market very robust
market small market but very robust
that's uh what I'll leave you with I
just think there's a great opportunity
right now um for this market for Europe.
>> Is there any particular place in Europe
you think is is looking particularly
is surprisingly up or surprisingly down?
I mean,
>> well, I was just looking at a kayak um
survey um that they had out for 2026
and 1 2 3 4 5 six of the 10 top
destinations that people are searching
are European.
>> Well, what's the what's the top
destination? I mean they just wanted to
>> the top the top trending top trending
destinations in terms of uh uh
improvement were Berlin and Milan and
the other ones were Zurich, Madrid,
>> Wow. Okay. When you said you were
looking at Kayak, I thought for one
moment you were meaning a canoe of some
kind, but now it became
Kayak is a is a search engine. I'm I'm
very sorry. I should have I should have
I ought to get out more on the internet.
That's perfectly correct. The um Terry,
I was just Is there any destination
that's particularly up at the moment?
There any trends worth commenting on?
You know, it's it's been from our member
perspective, it's been relatively
consistent. You know, Italy comes out on
top every year. Um France, Spain,
they're always in the mix. One may shift
from second to third and vice versa. So,
it's it's been fairly consistent. I
can't say that there's one that's
catapulting. You know, Iceland has been uh
uh
trendy the last five, six years. Uh but
it's it's all good news. I don't like to
say one's better than the other or one's
hotter or less so.
>> Wow. Okay. Well, you know,
um look, it's just great to hear that
reassurance. It's very difficult to
point out. I know if you look at um uh
the etc figures there are you know the
the countries that have seen an
explosion in arrivals
um are Montenegro and Serbia and Albania
and that's mainly because they've
dominated the Chinese market because
they're the only countries which don't
require Chinese to have visas. So I mean
there are one ways of bouncing bouncing
the figures up but I think what you're
saying Terry and what you're saying
Brett is that broadly the old uh
patterns hold firm the areas that have
got real interest particularly areas
where um tour operators add value and
they add value if you're going to um a
destination that you're perhaps not
totally familiar with such as Germany or
or Italy you will go to tour operators
for assistance in booking in those
areas. is okay. Now um the question came
through look because of and this is the
first time we've really tackled this
head on and because of the current
situation um do North Americans feel
welcome uh in Europe? I mean should we
worry that people are going to stay away
from Europe because people are going to
associate them with um associate with
current antagonism. Let's put it like that.
that.
>> Well, I I'll take a stab at that. Yeah.
Uh I referenced earlier that I had a
government affairs committee call yesterday
yesterday
and with what's going on with Greenland
and we need to be prepared to instill
confidence in the US traveler that they
will be welcome in Europe. Uh I know
that this happened to a certain degree
and Brett knows better than I that call
centers last year would get a call and
say am I going to be welcome? Is it
going to be awkward and uncomfortable
for me? Now, I don't believe we saw
cancellations, but calls were being made
to be reassured that yes, you're going
to feel welcome and you're going to have
a great experience.
We're entering another level
uh with what's going on in Greenland uh
with our administration
and the way he talks about NATO.
So, we need to be prepared as an
industry to make sure that, and I don't
have the answer for this yet, but that
we have the right message to keep
consumer confidence about traveling to
Europe top of mind and reassure them
that they're going to feel comfortable.
Brett, is there is a bleed over on that
at all for you or is it um just
everyone's traveling with confidence?
>> Well, I I echo what Terry said. I think
it's important that um operationally I
think a lot of operators were worried
about co-mingling when the rhetoric
turned up in February and March. Um and
quite frankly, like on the ground, we
haven't had any issues. People are
people. People want to enjoy each other.
They want to um they're looking for the
camaraderie. They're looking for
diversity. they're looking for a lot of
things that the type of travel that
Terry's members and and KO offer. So, we
haven't we haven't seen any real issue
there. Um, I think it's it's a few
individuals who are creating a lot of
hype right now. Um, there's been some
strong words in Davos by a lot of
people. Um, and I I I think though from
a I don't think it's going to affect
people's I personally don't think it's
going to affect people's opinion of one
another. I really do. But I I think it
will definitely affect travel demand for
sure. Um by that I mean um it's not just
Greenland, right, Terry? It's been um
there's been remarks which have been
made about Canada and and and and and on
Twitter um with regard to um uh one
thing or another, right? Um so uh I
don't think it's going to affect the
people-to-people uh exchange or relation
relationship. Um, but I do think that at
least from a Canadian perspective, there
are going to be more and more people
that when they think about traveling,
they're going to be thinking about going
to Europe
>> or elsewhere. I don't think this
situation is going to get any any better
anytime soon. And if it were to stop
tomorrow, I think this is baked in
already. It's going to take a while. And
I also think just because of the
advanced purchasing, uh, people are
making decisions now that will will
basically dictate what happens in 2026.
and maybe in the first quarter of 2027.
I think there's a great opportunity for Europe.
Europe.
>> Well, um that's happening and I I think
I think it's it's a very interesting
point you raised about coming because
the the information I was hearing is
that the only concern that people were
expressing is who am I traveling with?
you know, the idea that um um you you
might be um sharing a space with other
uh compatriots who perhaps don't share
your point of view was one of the only
concerns being expressed through the
telephone lines. Uh and I think this is
um and the good news is that um uh we've
been having comming people with widely
diverging opinions for for decades and
decades uh from North America. That's
not a problem. we've accommodated. I
wouldn't say that we, you know,
I don't go any further than this, but we
we've been covering that one quite a
while, Terry. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> I I I think uh when you talk about
co-mingling, that's the beauty of travel.
travel. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> You know, we we can bridge cultural differences,
differences,
different opinions, but do it respectful.
respectful.
Uh and and we do that in this industry.
And I can't think of many other
industries that are able to deliver uh
>> I'll leave that one hanging in the air.
I think it was very beautifully put.
Right, we're getting we'll be coming on
to the ones that um were posed earlier.
Some of these questions are so extensive
in detail even know where to begin. But
uh from the um how far I mean the these
this is almost what I want which is
really good. How important is the stock
market? How important is the currency to demand?
>> It's important.
I have and Brett Brett can comment
better than I can, but I have a certain
segment of my members, the tour operator
members, that as the stock market goes,
so do bookings.
So, if you have a quiet downward spiral,
the phones stop ringing and it's very
much tied into that that stock market.
Um, and I don't know what percentage of
my members, but I hear it anecdotally
quite a bit.
>> And Terry, I can say it no better. By
the way, you said it perfectly. I can
say it from a different perspective in
that um the Canadian dollar obviously
does not have the purchasing power of
the US dollar, right? Against um strong
currencies like the euro and the frank
and the US dollar. So um there was a
comment in the chat um does it make yeah
I mean currency makes a big difference
for anyone right um but uh for Canadians
we're already coming at this when we're
thinking about traveling to Europe at a
decided disadvantage in terms of the
foreign exchange right um um having said
that we're used to it because we're we
were used to that prior to the all the
issues we've been talking about today
whether we went to the US drove over the
border flew over the border went to
Europe or many other it the Canadian
dollar is um is not a very strong
currency. So um and I referenced this
too in terms of the I think a lot of
what will be happening in terms of the
renegotiation or discussion around KOSMA
and uh the economic effect of that the
effect of that on the Canadian dollar
will have will have impact but um to
what extent I'm not sure but it is a
factor. Foreign exchange for sure is a
factor. Yeah,
>> I think that was very very
straightforward. Um I more more intriguingly
intriguingly
good question. I'm just going to have to
pick ones at random because we've got so
many questions coming in. Don't stop
them, but um I I've we've got so many. I
know we're not going to go through them
all, so don't be disappointed. But are
you seeing a long-term shift towards
later bookings? People have been talking
that the decision lead time which is the
great buzzword for um certainly tour
operator sales um was starting to
shrink. Has it shrunk? And what is what
is the um what is the point at which you
start seeing uh products sold North
America? You were saying at one stage
show it was a 10-month sweet spot. Is it
really a 10-month sweet more like eight
or six or could it even be a
lastminute.com kind of choice? Uh Terry,
you go first.
>> Yeah, our our survey said it's
shortening, but it didn't we didn't have
by how much. So, uh yes, it's becoming
that window is getting shorter. I think
there are some kind of spontaneous
decisions saying hey let's go to Europe
wherever kind of last minute but uh I
think that booking window is shortening
from the traditional 10 months uh that
we've seen before Brett what do you what
do you see
>> yeah T I would I would say it's it's
creeping inward a bit um and this whole
thing about incrementalism right right
now it's not material really, but if it
were to continue, it could be. Um, and I
think the fact that there might be some
um some a lot of reasons why people
would want to book um later as opposed
to um what they might traditionally
Tom and it gets back to it could be and
I'm this is just off the top of my head
but as we move into um as we build talk
about small group experiences too it
could be that the time that you want to
go there's not as much inventory anymore
too, right? So, um if you're talking
about a groups of 12 or 14 or 16, they
can fill up much more quickly than 40 or
more. So,
um but I on the whole there's a lot of
factors that influence when people book.
But if I if and it is u when we're
spending money, we're still spending
money that that travel intention for
most of our members is a year or more
out. And the the point of booking is
within that 10 to 8 month, 7 month area.
So you need to be
in terms of that travel intention, you
need to be where the consumer is well
outside of that that booking period. Um,
so I mean is this I mean I I'm assuming
and I may be wrong in my assumption that
the old
golden weeks of the six weeks after
the week of the five weeks after Labor
Day, the whole of September and the
first couple of weeks in October were
the were with were a high volume peak
season for Americans coming to Europe.
And if you're a customer and you're
wanting to travel during those periods,
you want to book book pretty early for
that because they'll sell out. Um, and I
know um group blocks couldn't be secured
um in
uh in September, October um if you tried
to do so 12 months in advance. I mean
you these these were these were peak
selling opportunities. Is that still the
case? I mean, is this a long the lead
time on on the peak season?
>> Well, I think there's a long lead time
on all all seasons that that that
booking window is the same regardless of
when you're traveling, right? I think
the difference So, the in terms of the
booking period, I I I I'm not hearing
that there's any any um any difference
uh based on when people are traveling. I
think the one difference for many
operators is yes that September o that
September October time period
was a busy time for people to travel and
that that we've I think this has been
supply driven but what we've all been
focused on is leveling that out right
that doesn't help anyone um you don't
hire for that peak period you hire for
some median and so what I'm hearing and
this is true of of my own company is
where the company I work for is that
we're really focused on that sort of
April, May, June, even March time period
where there is interest, there is intent
and then it becomes either a pricing or
an offer um strategy and we're seeing a
lot of movement and a flattening of when
people are traveling.
>> Yeah, I I agree with Brett. I would also
say in the best interest of your
customer experience,
September, October probably isn't
optimal for the customer experience
because of the numbers of of people
visiting whatever the European country
is. So, I have definitely seen what
Brett described, you know, a leveling
out shoulder season becomes more
attractive because you can actually
exhale and enjoy the destination. So I I
think that's a trend that we we will
continue to see uh build.
>> Well, we hope so was um if I may just
take a moment's commercial break. I mean
we have a um a shoulder and off peak
initiative called shop which is taking
place um in the middle of summer. Of
course that's the time we had to hold
it. Um uh it's called shop shoulder and
off peak and there's going to be a
workshop and plenty of discussions on
this very topic. Um I'm just intrigued
just trying to open up some more more um
got loads of questions on FXes and uh
there's a question for well I mean
Terry's partly covered this already but
looking ahead what is your forecast for
European river cruise demand. Uh Brett I
mean you you haven't had a word on this
angle but river cruises for reasons
which we're very familiar with uh looks
like it's going well. Would you agree?
>> Totally agree. I think it's a very very
attractive way to travel and um and so
uh we're seeing more more river cruises
introduced every year. Um more and more
demand um and uh so yeah know I I and I
don't have any numbers around that but I
I can tell you that in within the market
and and uh here river cruising is
extremely popular.
>> I s you've already covered it.
Well, I I would just say yes, it's
extremely popular. It's a wonderful way
to travel, but I do think our industry
has to be cognizant of how do we manage
this? Because, you know, when you go
into some ports and you you walk through
six different vessels that are all there
at the same time, you know, that's over
tourism. We need to make sure we we're
cognizant of of uh that customer
experience again because we Brett's
absolutely right. Every year, you know,
we're seeing more and more inventory and
more attractive ships, but we need to be
somewhat sensitive to uh that customer experience.
experience.
Um and this is partly in response to um
a leading national tourist offic's
publicity campaign, but is the demand
rising in North America for set jetting
as they're now calling it, which is
travelers wanting to go and see a movie
and t TV locations. And is this a um is
this a trend you're witnessing or is
this um I what the a is there a trend
for this? I think I believe that
question is a single question rather
than an alternative. Uh Brett is this do
you see people going hey we got to go
there we've seen it on James Bond or um
you know launchito or something what
there's no doubt I don't I I must admit
I don't have any data behind this. I'm
sure others do. Um it's mentioned time
and time again by the likes of Visit
Britain and and others. Um and obviously
where there is filming there is going to
be interest right because people um are
passionate about what they watch and the
time they spend and and there would be a
certain portion that want to want to see
where where it's made. So there's no
doubt about it that it's if if you have
that um if you have that in your
backyard um it's going to be attractive
and then it can almost become another
issue in terms of over tourism, right?
It can be very ve very appealing in
terms of promotion, but then you can
have the same issue over and over again.
So Terry,
>> yeah, I don't I don't have any data
either, but certainly you look at a
destination like Dubravnik
and there's a lot of interest, but it
becomes to the point where it's over
tourism coupled with, you know, the
cruise ships that come in. uh but
they've managed the cruise ship piece of
that. But I I I think yeah there's there
certainly appears to be demand that's
generated certainly awareness that's
generated from whether it's movies or uh
TV shows.
I just don't have any data on what the
extent of it is.
>> I mean I I think it's very interesting.
I mean you you wouldn't um in North
Wales to give one example I don't think
you'd see the crowds that you see at
Port Marian which is a model village by
KL Williams Ellis were it not for the
cult TV series the prisoner which was
aired back in the 1960s
um and there are numerous examples of
this dotted around so I think it
undoubtedly motivates people to stop and
look whether it mot mot motivates people
to travel across continents It's another
matter entirely. But there are two
categories I imagine of attraction. One
the things that lead people to a
destination. The other thing that gives
them something to do when they're in
that destination. the top of the
>> Well, it's it's also it's also
interesting, Tom, when you look at, you
know, Taylor Swift's concerts or Beyonce
and, you know, fans do follow and they
do have an economic impact and uh I
>> Yeah, I I I agree. So, you can look at
culture. Well, I I don't Terry, what an
amazing intervention. I'm at loss for
words at the idea of 10 Swift being
introduced in this, but you're quite
right, of course. Excellent. Um, if you
thought this was going to be Swifty
Zone, you're wrong, guys. Anyway, um,
last question. Um, do do you do you
still see first-time visitors that want
to see and visit bucket list? I mean, is
the bucket list still important as a
factor, I suppose, is the question. I
mean, um, Brett, do you think bucket
list visits are still driving demand?
>> Short answer is yes. I mean, there are
people that want to go and whatever it
may be. Um, again, there's a thousand
shades of gray. We we try and find our
our our spot where we should be and um
every operator is going to have that in
terms of where they go and the type of
travel and what they do. Um, I would
just go back to the point that even if
there is a bucket list, right, people
are being much more considerate. I
believe people are being much more
considerate with regard to where they
travel, how they travel. Um and and that
will be woven into the fabric of either
their you know who they choose to travel
with, where they go, and how they go. Um
so yes, the bucket list is still alive
and well and and that's part of the live
entertainment. Um right, that's part of
the live entertainment we were just
talking about. Live entertainment is a
huge business for sure,
>> whether it be Beyonce, Taylor Swift, or
anything else. Um, so
>> Bad Bunny, >> uh,
>> uh,
>> so I I would I would like to jump in on
the bucket list. Uh, it is alive and it
does, uh, drive a certain amount, but I
personally don't like the bucket list.
And here's why. Because as a tour
operator or a destination,
it's about creating a relationship with
that customer. And a bucket list to me
implies you check the box, been there,
done that, move on, and never
potentially come back. So, I'm just
like, I don't don't worry about whether
you're a bucket list destination or not.
It's building a connection, uh, a
relationship with that traveler.
>> Gentlemen, uh, we've more or less run
out of time and I I just I've got the
last minute here just to say thank you
so much. We've thrown up ideas that are
actually genuinely contentious and we
could sit down and discuss over tourism
or misplaced tourism as people or
unbalanced tourism as people wish to
call it. We could look at bucket list
and the importance otherwise. Um, we've
barely touched on the whole great roller
coaster to use a met of experiential
tourism as to what on earth that means
and as if going to see uh to use the
bucket list um the cyine chapel for the
first time is not an extraordinary
experience. It is an extraordinary
experience but it and it is also on the
bucket list.
There are some uh interesting issues
floating around out there. But thank you
so much Brett. Thank you so much Jerry
for sparing your time. It's been genuinely informative, genuinely
genuinely informative, genuinely interesting for me. I'm sure it has been
interesting for me. I'm sure it has been for the audience and thank you audience
for the audience and thank you audience for being there. So um thank you
for being there. So um thank you everybody involved in this. Very much
everybody involved in this. Very much look forward to talking again. Take
look forward to talking again. Take care. Bye-bye.
care. Bye-bye. >> Thank you Tom. Bye
>> Thank you Tom. Bye >> bye.
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