This content introduces game theory as a powerful framework for understanding human and societal behavior, arguing it offers superior predictive and analytical capabilities compared to traditional theories. It posits that by analyzing players, rules, and incentives, one can decipher the underlying "superstructure" of civilizations and predict their trajectory.
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This semester we are going to analyze a
question together which is how do
societies behave? Why do we do what we
do? What motivates us? What drives us?
And there have been different theories
as to what drives human behavior. Okay.
So let's go over some theories.
The first theory
comes to us from
And the idea is that
we are all driven
in a war between good
and evil.
There's a good side to us and there is
an evil side to us. There's Satan and
there's God. and we are constantly in a battle
battle
in ourselves.
Okay? Do we move towards Satan or do we
move towards God? And that's the core of
human civilization. So religion is meant
to give us the strength to show us the
path towards goodness. Okay, that's one
theory. Another theory is comes to us
from biology. Okay. And the idea is sex.
We want to pass on our genes
forward because that's the point of our
existence. If we cannot have children,
we all die. So the point of existence is to
to
have children and have them pass on
their genes to others. Okay? And for
life is different because as a man, you
have a penis and all you have to do is
stick your penis into a woman and you're
good. Okay? That's all you have to do.
So you want to stick your penis in as
many women as possible and that's the
point of your existence.
But as a woman, your life is different
because it's hard to give birth. It
takes 9 months to incubate the child in
your womb and then p child birth is the
most painful experience anyone will have
ever experienced. And then the child
it'll take like 16 18 years to raise a
child to maturity. So it's a huge
investment on your part. So as a female,
you have to be very cautious,
very careful about who you marry or have
or or you or who you have sex with.
Okay? And so life is a struggle between
men who want to put their penis into
anything and women who want to be
careful about who they marry. Okay? So
that's the idea of biology. Then of
course you have the idea of race and culture
that the world it's a struggle between
these different races and cultures for
dominance and each race each culture has
their own characteristics.
Okay. So maybe the yellow rays it's
they're very clever but they're very
weak. And then the white race are brave
but kind of stupid. And the black people
like anyway anyway that's another
theory. I'm not saying it's correct. I'm
just saying it's a theory that people
right? And what they believe is that we
We want to make as much money as possible
possible
and that's what drives us. Okay, that's
pretty simple. And the last big theory
is the idea of liberalism
And here the theory is that history is a
progress towards enlightenment to
rationality to truth and to justice. So
the inevitability of history of human
development is towards paradise towards
heaven. And maybe you know we go off
track now and then but inevitably we
move towards God. Okay. And this comes
to us from the enlightenment. We call
this liberalism. Okay. So these are five
theories. There are others but these are
five theories that show you the
diversity, the variety of ideas out there.
there.
What I will do this semester is present
to you another theory which I call game theory.
>> [snorts]
>> And my argument to you is that game
theory is the best way to understand how
humans behave, what drives nations, what
drives societies, what drives humans.
Okay? So that's my that's my argument to
you this semester. So the entire
semester we will study game theory. All
right. So what is game theory? All
right. Game theory is very simple. The
idea is that there are three components
to a game. Just three aspects to a game.
Okay. Then there are the rules
or the constraints.
Um in mathematics we would call this the
boundary conditions. Okay, the limits to
the game. And the third aspect are the incentives.
Basically, how do you win this game?
What do you get from this game? My
argument to you this semester is that if
you study all three, okay? Figure out
who the if you figure out who the
players are, figure out what if you
understand the rules, you understand the
incentives, then you understand how the
game works and then therefore you can
predict how the game will turn out.
Okay, that's the skill that I want to
teach you this semester.
And what I want to show you or what I
promise you is that if you learn game
theory, there'll be three major benefits
to you as a student.
Again, you don't have to learn game
theory. You don't have you don't have to
come to class. But if you spend the
effort to learn game theory from me,
then three things will benefit you.
Okay. The first benefit
The point of education guys, it's not to
get good grades or get into university
or get a good job. What I believe is the
point of education is to make you into a
better person which means that you are a
much more thoughtful person who can
better analyze yourself in the world
around you. That allows you to make
better better decisions. This makes you
a much more curious, much more moral and
much more imaginative person. Okay. So
one benefit of learning game theory is
you become smarter and therefore you
become a better person.
Okay, that's number one.
Number two is
you'll be able to understand
the world
that we live in because this world is
kind of stupid. Okay, so you may have
heard that Donald Trump
um and the American military went into
Venezuela for no real for no good
reason, kidnapped a president of
Venezuela, which is against which is
against international law and then
brought him back to New York City where
he will stand trial. It's really stupid
what happened. But then, but our class,
it's not meant to say this is stupid or
this is wrong because we all know it's
stupid and wrong. We're trying to figure
out why this happened and what this will
lead to. And so we will be in this class
studying and analyzing current events to
understand how the world really works,
why people behave the way they they do,
and understand how the game of the world
works. And this requires you to actually
follow the news. Okay? It's not hard to
spend five minutes and just read up on
the news, but we'll be looking at the
the war in Ukraine. We'll be looking at
a new war between Israel and Iran. We'll
be looking at what's happening in South
America. We'll be looking at the
conflict between China and Japan. We'll
be looking at the relationship between
United States and China. Okay? So this
is relevant to your lives because you'll
be you will eventually have to work and
live in this really screwed up world
that we live in. Okay.
And the third benefit is
once you understand the game you will
have predictive powers. You'll be able
to understand how the world will
develop. You'll be able to analyze your
own life and understand how you will
develop and that gives you control,
sovereignty over your own destiny.
Okay, that's my promise to you. If you
actually spend the time to listen
carefully in class, to participate
fully, to follow the news, uh, and you
spend the entire semester doing so, then
these three benefits will start to acrue
in you. Okay, this is a lifelong
struggle to learn game theory. I'm a lot
older than you are. I have a lot more
experience than you. Okay, but I want to
show you how to look at the world
through game theory. Another phrase that
you you learn in school is I'm going to
teach you how to think critically about
the world or I'll just teach you how to
think. Okay.
All right. Are we clear? Any questions
before I move on? All right. So, this is
all very abstract. And so, what what I'm
going to do now is I'm going to use an
example of a game to show you how game
theory works. Okay. All right. So, let's
let's use a really simple game. Okay.
Let's imagine there are five boys and
five girls
and they want to get married. Okay. So,
these are the players
and what we're going to do is we're
going to divide up them up into male and female.
female.
Then what we're going to do is we will rank
rank
the males and the females. Okay? Okay.
So, we're going to rank 10 players and
to five 4
3 2 1 5 4 3 2 1. Okay. And so, how do we
rank them? Well, we rank them according
to their attractiveness using three
criteria. Uh the first is genes,
the second is wealth
and the third is status.
Okay. So genes is very simple. It means
that you're good-looking.
It means you're tall. It means you're
healthy. You you will live a long time.
Okay. Genes is pretty simple to
understand. Wealth just means that you
or your family have a lot of money.
Status means that you have a lot of
friends, you have a high status job,
you come from a really
powerful family. Okay, so these are the
three criteria that we can use to judge
a person's attractiveness. And then what
we can do is rank them from five to one.
Five means really the best, one means
the worst. Okay? And we can rank all 10
according to these metrics.
So according to biology, what we call
evolution biology or ev evolution psychology,
psychology,
we're always trying to find the best
genes to procreate because this ensures
that our genes pass on. Okay. So um
remember that men have a penis which
they can stick into anything. Women have
to give birth. So the strategies are
different. Okay. So basically five
number five is trying to have sex with all
all
five women. Right? That's his strategy. Um
Um
but fear one number five wants to ensure
that she only gets five. Okay. So these
are different strategies. And
And
if this according to evidence psychology
all five of these females should try to procreate
procreate
with number five. Okay. But we know you
can't do this. and suicidal.
Why is it suicidal? Because
the human rights couldn't survive,
right? It'd be idiotic to do something
like this where all five women are just
trying to marry this one guy and maybe
him. Okay? But these three are
eliminated because then your society
would collapse. You wouldn't you can
have that many children. So this can't
possibly be true, right?
So let's figure out what rationally what
All right. So let's think about this
rationally [snorts]
or from an e economics perspective. All
right. So again number five,
he's trying to maximize the game. So
he's trying to sleep with all five
women. Okay.
The problem if he does that is these
five know they're all being played and
they recognize that this guy is probably
an So five
the best woman is like you know what
there's not much of difference between
four and five so I'll just go marry this
guy right? So number four is gone and
number four is like you know what
five is probably making a good decision
so I'll just go marry number three right
and then what happens now is that five
by trying to
marry all the women is stuck with the
worst choice. Right?
Right?
So that's kind of stupid for him. He's
stuck with number one. But guess what?
If any of these guys try this crap, the
same thing happens to him. Where four is
like, you know what? I I can't get five,
but I'll but I'll try to get four and
three together. And then three is like,
screw you. I'm I'm going to go and marry
two. Four is going to marry three. Okay.
Then he's stuck with one as well. Or
he's just alone.
So if they try to individually
maximize their outcome, they all get
screwed in the end. So the only way out
out of this is if they cooperate. Okay?
And the best way to cooperate is
basically five is like, you know what?
Screw this. I'm not going to go after
four or three. I'll just I'll just have
Right. Four is like, yeah, I'll just go
marry four. No dating, no games. I'll
just go marry four. And three marries
three. Two marries two. and one marries
one. Okay. And the world now is perfect.
Everyone has a husband and a wife and
they can now just have children and the
world is perfect. And this is actually
the best strategy for all the players,
right? We call this the wording game
theory we call we use for this is called
Okay. Nash equilibrium just means that
you always reach a state in which all
the players maximize their outcome, the
Nash equilibrium.
And so the world makes sense. Now
there's a problem with this though. The
problem is in real life no one does
this. Okay? In real life no one actually
follows this rule. Natural living is
just a theory we made up. But in real
life, that's just not what happens. What
happens in real life is we choose to be suicidal.
suicidal. Okay.
So, let me tell you about a game I
played. So last year I was teaching this
class and I asked the boys and I asked
the girls. Pretend you're now 30 years
old, right? Your parents are pestering
you to get married and you've been on
the dating market for 10 years. There's
really no one that you think is perfect
for you. You've just you you've have
basically give up on love. Imagine
that you want to get married now and
tell me what is the minimum requirement
you need in order to agree to marry
someone else. Okay. What's the minimum?
Okay. And then I have the boys and the
girls write down response. The boys were
pretty simple, right? Well, you know, as
long as she likes me and as long as I
can put her my penis into her, I'm good.
Okay, it's that simple. Okay, it really
is. Guys are like, "Yeah, I'll settle
for anything.
That's the That's the boys, right?"
Girls were different. girls who were
like, "Okay,
if I don't love him, if I'm not even
attracted to him, I need about a million
dollars a month." >> Really?
>> Really?
>> Oh my god.
>> Yeah. I need about a million dollars.
>> Last class.
>> Last semester. Okay. All right. So, [laughter]
[laughter]
this makes no sense, right? So, in theory,
theory,
>> in theory, we should follow Nash
equilibrium. But in real life, what
happens is this. All the girls want this
one guy.
Okay? And maybe number four. Look at
them for number four. But 321 they don't
want. And we know because just look at
the world around you. Look at these
billionaires, right? Like Ellen Mus, how
many wives does does he have?
>> How many children does he have? Right?
All the women in the world, many, not
all, but many just want to marry actors
like Brad Pitt,
billionaires like Ellen Musk, right?
right?
And 3, two, and one,
they what do they do? Well, they watch
Netflix, they watch porn, they play
video games. They've given up on life,
okay? They're like, "We don't care." We
call these people incels, right?
involuntary celibates because basically
they have given up on life and life has
given up on them. So this entire
competition is between number five and
four for all the women in the world. And
this is again suicidal. This will lead
to the death of humanity.
And the question now is okay why are we suicidal?
And so let's look at game three
analysis, right? The players, the rules,
and incentives. We know we know what the
players are. The players are doing
stupid things. The rules, we know, okay,
but incentives
is something that we have to think
about. Why are they behaving like this?
And the answer is because they're not
interested in sex or procaration. What
they're interested in is status.
Okay, that's the game they're playing. Status.
Status.
I don't want to marry someone to have
children. I want to marry someone so I
can take a picture of her and post it on
Instagram so I can get a lot of likes.
Oh my god. I want to marry someone so I
can walk with her in the mall and all
the guys are jealous. I want to marry
someone who I can brag about.
Okay. It's it's a game about status, not
a game about sex or procreation. Do you
understand? They are not people are not
being rational here. People are trying
to maximize their status in life. And
that's why everyone's behaving like
this. Number
she may be the ugest woman in the world,
but she's still like, you know what?
It's still my choice where not to have
kids. And having kids is a pain in the
ass. So, if I'm if I'm going to make the
sacrifice, this guy better be
good-looking, okay? Or this guy better
be rich. Otherwise, why would I want to
have kids? Okay,
so this is why people behave the way
they do. If you think about this way,
what you recognize is that people are rational.
rational.
But to understand why they're rational,
you have to figure out what the game is. Okay.
But then this leads to us to a question
which is okay. Well, clearly this is
wrong because if we behave like this
throughout human history, we wouldn't be
here today.
Okay, how is it that we have this game
today and we're going to die, but we
must have come from somewhere. We've
been around for like a long time. So,
how is it that humans have survived for
so long doing these stupid things? And
the answer is basic game changes over
time according to the superructure of
the superructure is what determines the
nature of the game. Superructure just
think about the big picture, right? How
many people are there? Is somebody
wealthy or poor? Are there enemies to
this society? Okay, this is the
superructure, the big picture,
demographics, economics, culture,
politics, religion. And these things
together is what determines the nature
of the game. All right. So, let's look
All right.
Um example one is you have a low
population society. Okay, low population
is like maybe 200 people, 200 people.
Okay, a village basically
they are poor
and um low technology. Low technologies
means they don't have access to clean
water. They don't know what hygiene is.
They don't understand what germs are. So
it's very easy for a woman to die in childbirth.
childbirth.
Okay. And um low competition.
Low competition just means that
there are no competing villages against
them. Okay. So that's one kind of
superructure, the early superructure of
human society. Okay. Then you have maybe
growing population.
Okay. So we're talking about like maybe
10,000 people, 20,000 people. They are
now growing in wealth, growing wealth.
Um, they have some technology meaning
they have access to clean water and they
have high competition. Okay, meaning
that they're competing against different
villages and societies around them.
Okay, that's another superructure. And
the third superructure is overpopulation.
overpopulation.
Okay, which is the world we live in
today. Okay, where in China you have a
billion people. That's a lot of people. Um,
Um,
Okay. But with wealth, you have
inequality, right?
And then you have high technology. This
high technology means that every woman
who gives birth will not die and every
child born will live on will live. Okay?
And then you have something called an
equilibrium. Equilibrium just means that
yeah, there's competition, but they're
not going to go to war against each
other. The world is basically peaceful.
Okay. And according to super structure,
the game is going to change. So let's go
back to the game. Okay. We have
10 people
in a low population, poor society. Guess
what? They're not going to date. What
they're going to do is they might get
married, but they're going to have sex
with each other.
Why? Because as a woman, the only way to
ensure that your child survives is if
all the men in the village
want to protect and nurture the child.
They will do that if they believe that
the child could be theirs. Okay? So the
woman will maybe have a husband, but the
woman will also choose to sleep with
other men to disguise paternity.
Doesn't make sense. So there's no
dating. There's just lots and lots of
sex in order to maintain social
cohesion. Okay. Now, in a superructure
there's no dating either. Why? Because
this society is in competition with
other societies and they need to have as
many children as possible. So, what the
the solution here is to arrange marriages.
marriages.
arrange marriages where
where
you know who cares who you marry? Just
have lots and lots of kids. Okay,
there's no dating either. Just have lots
and lots of kids. You marry who your
parents tell you to marry. You marry
someone that you know. You marry your
childhood best friend. Who cares? Okay,
but you marry someone. You have lots and
lots of kids. Okay, that's super
structure number two. Superst number
three is the one we live in. And here
you have a dating game, right? Because why?
why?
because the odds of you obtaining status
is really really low. Okay? And the only
way that you can change your status is
by marrying up. [clears throat]
And that's why you have a dating game. A
dating game is opportunity for you to
find someone better than your social
demographic circumstance can suggest.
Okay? And that's why you have low uh decreasing
decreasing
Okay. Where over time because of the
dating game
society will collapse.
Okay. Does that make sense?
All right.
So now you're the government and all
around the world women who are wealthy,
well educated are refusing to have
children, especially in East Asia. Right
now the fertility rate in China is about one.
one.
Okay, about one. The replacement rate
that you need is a 2.1. So just to
maintain your current population levels,
every woman in China needs to give birth
to at least two kids. But right now on
average, women are choosing to have one
kid only in China. And the worst thing
is that this trend is increasing. So 5
years ago, the fertility rate was maybe 1.7.
1.7.
Now it's one. Okay. So the trend is very
very negative. Okay. So governments all
around the world are trying to figure
out what to do. How do you convince
women to have more kids?
And what we've discovered is
it's impossible.
We can pay you more money like they do
in South Korea. Guess what? It doesn't
work because people don't want money.
They want status. And status is a zero-
sum game. Okay? Money is infinite. But
status power is a zero sum game. So when
you have overpopulation, when you have
too many people competing for two
status, too few status positions, you
have decreasing
fertility rates and there's nothing you
can do about it. The moment you give
women choice, they choose to improve
their lives by marrying someone better.
Okay? Not all but most. And so over
time, what happens is your society
collapses. If you look at history, the
best indicator that a society is about
to collapse is if the woman who are
wealthy and well educated, if they
refuse to have children. This is the
same. This is what happened to the
Romans who collapsed. This is what
happened um to many empires. This is
what's happening around the world today
in America, in Britain, in Europe, in
China. Okay? And this tells us that
society is collapsing. So in other words,
words,
what this really is, okay, these superructures,
superructures,
it tells us the life cycle of a civilization,
civilization, right?
right?
So this is when you when civilization is
young then it mature it grows
Okay.
And if you look at history all
civilizations go through this process of birth
birth
maturation and then collapse.
and there's no way around it. So the
power of game theory is that just by
studying one aspect, okay, if I just
study this game, all right, I figure out
who the players are, the rules and the
incentives, I can figure out what the
super structure
of the civilization is. Okay, and then
once I have these two, I can now figure
out where it came from and where it's going.
going. Okay,
that's what I want to teach you in this
class. How to analyze a situation so you
understand the players, the rules and
incentives which will give you insight
into the superructure
so that you can figure out where it came
from and then you can also predict where
it's going. All right.
All right.
So, but you can also look at the
superructure and figure out what the
Okay. So, this is one example, but but
throughout the semester, we'll be doing
many many different examples of game
theory. Is this clear so far?
Are there any questions?
Any comments? Any questions before I
move on? All right.
All right.
All right. So let's just look at some basic
basic
All right. All right. This is a map of
the world. Okay.
As you can see. Okay. Oh, sorry. So the
color scheme is this. The red is where
the population
uh the society has an above replacement
fertility rate. Okay. So above 2.1. If
it's dark red like here in the middle of
Africa, it's six to seven or six above.
Okay? And why why is it that the case?
Because Africa is in a situation where
it is a growing society with middling
tech. So a lot of people die, lots of
competition. So to survive, families
have to give birth to a lot of kids.
Okay? They have no choice in the matter.
But then you move to the rest of the
world. Okay? So this is um North
America, Europe, and East Asia. the
three wealthiest parts of the world. And
guess what? The fertility rate is
collapsing because now we've entered the
endgame where it is overpopulation, too
much wealth, so too much inequality. And
so women are forced to pick the best
possible mate or not have children at
all. All right? And here the situation
is very very dire. North America and
Europe are kind of okay. Why? Because
immigration. because even though their
women are not having children, they can
choose to import
people for their labor force.
But East Asia is really really screwed
Okay, so China is one but the worst is
North Korea. Sorry, South Korea. South
Korea has the lowest population
uh rate in sorry the lowest fertility
rate in the world. They're at between
0.6 to 0.8. So they're probably gone in
50 years time. It's so bad that when you
go to South Korea, they have signs
outside restaurants that says no dogs
and no kids. They think that kids are a
problem. Okay. So you look at the these
areas again they are poorer so women are
forced to have more children in order to
survive. Okay. But you look at wealthy
areas well they'll probably be gone in
100 years time.
Okay. You it's total total collapse.
The solution the governments are
choosing right now is to import immigrants.
immigrants.
Okay? Especi So these are the trends
right now and it's causing a lot of
disruption in society because guess why
guys people don't like outsiders people
don't like immigrants but they don't
have a choice of matter because along
with the fertility crisis is the aging
crisis where your population is getting
older and older. Okay. So life the world
is not that simple. If you want to know
who will rule the world in 100 year
time, 100 years time, just figure out
which society in which society do
wealthy educated women choose to have
children and then that society will rule
the world. Okay, it's that simple,
right? [snorts] Well, unfortunately, if
you do it that way, you get a really
really disturbing answer. Okay. So this is
is
per capita G uh GDP. Okay. So how much
people people make. All right. So
obviously if you're zero you're very
poor and um if you move to over here
you're very wealthy. Okay. So United
States is the wealthiest society in the
world. Right? Sure we can understand
that. Then this is the fertility rate
which tells us how many children women
have on average. Okay, so again 2.1
is replacement rate. Okay, 2.1 is
replacement rate. So United States is
actually below replacement rate, but the
United States doesn't really care
because it can import immigrants. Okay,
um China is probably around here
somewhere somewhere. Okay.
Um, Angola is up here, but it's poor.
So, what this map tells us is a country
that is most likely to be dominant for
the next 50 years is
this country, Israel. Okay? Is it is the
only wealthy western high-tech society
in which women choose to have more than
two kids.
Okay, this is what game theory teaches
us. And yeah, I know there are people
like, "Yeah, but Israel, it's um it has
9 million people
and um it's in the middle of a desert
and everyone hates Israel. I understand
that. Thank you very much." Okay, I
understand that. But if you just analyze
how the game works,
okay, if you just look at it objectively
from a game theory perspective, you are
forced to conclude that Israel right now
has the major advantage over everyone
else. Now, it is possible that societies
will change the fertility rate as the as
the world changes. Okay? But I'm saying
that given the current state of things
Israel their growth trajectory is very
very high.
But then the question then is okay
why is it that Israel
they are different from everyone else?
And the answer is because the world
hates them. Okay? Because they think
they are different from everyone else.
and they must unite together to survive.
So in Israel, fertility
is status.
Okay? If you are a woman and you give
birth to a lot of kids, that means that
you love Israel. That means that you are
doing what you can in this war
for survival.
It means you are a patriot. Okay?
Okay?
So what the west has done is not only um
has it created a dating game where women
can choose to have kids but the western
world has also given up on religion and
embraced materialism. Right?
Right?
So what is valued
in our world in the west? It's not patriotism
patriotism
or love of family or religious duty.
It's just how many Instagram followers
you have. It's how many YouTube
subscribers you have. It's how many how
much money you have. Okay? That's all
that matters.
So given the current state of state of
events, it's very hard for the Western
world and really for China to survive
next for the next 50 years. Okay. And I
and I know like well China has a billion
people. So even though um
um
you know we're only giving birth to 10
million kids a year which will still be
around for a long long time. Okay. So at
this rate by 2100
China will be will be at a population
about 600 million. That's still a lot of
people man.
Um okay
here's the problem though. Okay. This is
South Korea. Okay. South Korea is like
the worst case scenario and for South
Korea this is actually the best case
scenario where okay given current trends
and let's let's just pretend that
nothing bad happens to South Korea.
Well, by the year 2100 you you have a
situation like this where the vast
majority of people are over 65 and you
have no kids. Okay, that is a zombie
society where no one works and everyone
just I don't know walks around the park
every day.
No one works. So the economy has
collapsed. Okay. So look look look at
this trend where we are now in here.
Okay. Where the majority it's still a
working population which is good. You
need that for the economy. But by the
time you hit 2040,
okay, you got this huge dependency and a
creating population. Okay. You you guys
see this where we are in um Okay. So
we're at 2020, right? Okay. All right.
So it's still not too bad. But by the
time you have 2040, look at this. Okay,
look at this m look at this. Where you
have absolutely no kids and then you
have lots and lots of retirees. Okay?
And then by the time you hit 60, oh my god,
god, right?
right?
Your population, your working population
has decreased by half, by 50%. All right?
All right? So
So
if things are stay the same, if nothing
happens, South Korea will be will be
dead in I don't know by 20
20
150. Okay, best case scenario. But what
we know from history is that societies
will not die naturally.
Eventually South Korea will be forced
into wars, new economic crisis. So this
trend will just increase and so if North
Korea get got past 2080 I'd be very
surprised. Okay, I would be surprised by 2040
2040
South Korea were to face collapse as a
nation state.
Okay, because you need these people to
work but guess what? You also need them
to fight wars. So if North Korea ever
threatens South Korea, most of your
adult population will be dead.
Okay. So, South Korea cannot fight a
war. Now, the prospects for South Korea
is utterly hopeless. There's nothing
South Korea can do about this because
South Korea is an extremely
materialistic society where
the only way only way to get ahead is by
making a lot of money. Okay? And if
you're a middle class person in South
Korea, it makes no sense for you to have
three kids. makes sense for you to have
one kid and put all your resources into
this one kid in the hopes that he passes
the college examination, gets in a good
university and then gets a good job at
Samsung, which is the only company in
South Korea. Okay, Samsung,
right? So, the situation is pretty dire
in South Korea.
All right. Okay, that's it for
today. Any questions, guys, about what
we've learned? Yeah.
Yeah. >> Okay.
>> Yeah. Speaking of mic, please.
>> So, so for the last graph that uh we
talked about Israel and I've noticed
that the Saudi Arabia that is also like
uh at uh have not bad GDP per capita and
fertility rate. So, but for Saudi
Arabia, maybe I'm wrong, like uh
stereotypically that they didn't receive
uh much hate as Israel. So, so why did
they like at the similar position as Israel?
Israel?
>> Okay, that's actually really good
question. Okay. All right. So,
So,
South Saudi Arabia, as you can see from
this map, has it's a very wealthy society.
society.
um and families have about 4K on
average. All right. So, South Saudi
Arabia is actually an outlier. And the
reason why is that it gets all the money
from oil revenues. Okay? So, it sells
with oil around the world. What what
does it do? It creates a welfare state
using this oil.
Um so, you're incentivized to have um
many children as possible because the
government will pay for it. free
schooling, free health care, free
housing, and then a guaranteed job. So,
it's basically like socialism. Uh it's
also a Muslim country. So, you have this
religious duty imperative to have have
as many children as possible.
Okay. But the problem with Saudi Arabia
is the idea of human capital
where it is not really a Mar society in
which people are well educated and
they're contributing to the to the
economy. Okay. Saudi Arabia just just
gets all its money from oil and that's
it. It's trying to grow terrorism. It's
trying to develop its uh human capital,
but it doesn't really work. Okay. So, so
you're right in that Saudi Arabia
um it is uh it seems to be doing well,
but it's not really. Okay.
Um but also like people will argue about
Israel as well. We're like, well, Israel
gets all its money from the United
States and it's the American military
that supports Israel. Um, that's true to
a certain extent, but I would argue that
you actually go to Israel, you will see
that it's an open dynamic society in
which you're allowed to ask questions,
which you're allowed to criticize the
government, uh, in which you are given a
lots of opportunities for social
mobility. Okay. So, Israel has democracy,
democracy,
it has uh innovation, okay, it has um
um technology,
okay? And Saudi Arabia doesn't have
these things. If you want to be a really
strong nation, then you need innovation,
you need openness, you need you need
technology, okay? It's also um really
highly educated,
right? Okay. Does that make sense? Okay.
So Saudi Arabia is really an outlier
here. All right. But the problem is what
happens if
Saudi Saud runs out of oil, right? Or
there's a war in the Middle East and
Saudi Arabia is kind of screwed. All right.
right.
All right. But you can also argue, no,
well, you know, Saudi Arabia, it has a
lot of money and maybe Okay. So, so game
theory doesn't give us the answers. Game
theory we it just gives us a guide to
ask questions and do research. Okay.
Does that make sense? Uh yeah.
>> I have a question about
I have a question about like when is
this data? It's it's rose about 2009,
right? So how about now? Did it change a
lot or like is there anything change?
>> Um okay.
Okay. Yeah. So you ask you asked about
the sourcing of the data. Okay. And
you're right in that there there will be
fluctuation. Okay.
But the um but this is 2024. Okay. 2024.
And this is Israel right here. Okay. All
right. So if it's red, it's above replacement.
replacement.
All right. And if you just Google Israel
population fertility rate, Israel is the
only wealthy nation in the world that
has an above replacement fertility rate. Okay.
Okay.
[snorts] [clears throat]
[clears throat]
All right. Great. So, I will see you
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