YouTube Transcript:
Leverage & strategic play as India pauses Indus Waters Treaty after Pahalgam_ & Pakistan's 'loss'

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There are weeks when news cycle moves
really fast. That's tough for us
journalists. There are days then when
new cycle moves even faster, right? That
is tougher still. But then there can be
weeks with successive days where new
cycle moves all the time. All the time a
new headline comes and and an important
headline comes. So we just had we were
still figuring out the implications and
importance of
India's holding the Indas waters treaty
in obeyance and I had done some homework
homework on that and I will share that
with you and my colleague our deputy
editor Mashmi Das Gupta will join in in
in in a bit after I've explained the
larger situation to you to talk about
particular projects she'll join me in
and while we were still sort of
digesting it and understanding it. The
prime minister spoke out this morning
which was very important and some sort
of a diplomatic response diplomatic to
the extent that India's steps were taken
on the diplomatic plane non-military
plane. Pakistan has also announced its
own responses. So what are we doing
then? This is a rare day when you are
going to have two episodes of
kataklatter. So this will be the first
will come out earlier us talking about
India's waters treaty and what it means
what does India's holding it in in a
base means what are the choices what are
the prospects what does it mean for
India for Pakistan and what is the
picture on the ground just to understand
the industry because this is not just
something everybody says Indas waters
treaty do this do that good bad etc but
we need to understand what it is that is
what I will do right now So we know that
Indas waters treaty is something that
India and Pakistan signed with the
mediation of the World Bank. World Bank
is a signary and a kind of third empire
to this. This was signed in 1960 between
Phil Marshall Aayub and and Javaral Neu
on the Indian side. This treaty has so
far stood the test of time. It's been 65
years. This treaty has held through
through wars that is
1965 1971 many near wars including
Cargill of Parakram etc etc. This in
fact is held out because this is a world
that's heading for water wars in many
areas or water wars in the sense that
there are many serious issues with water
in many areas. The most important that
we will see going ahead besides of
course the indust waters in India system
waters in the subcontinent will be
what's happening with river Nile in in
Africa because when Egypt was the only
developed country in that area it made
use of river Nile and built a lot of
economy around it. Now the countries
which are upstream of the river because
that's a south north flowing river. the
the poorer countries of the past also
want to use the water and that's where
that is Sudan, Ethiopia etc. and that's
where trouble is coming up. So Indas
waters treaty was seen as an example of
a good agreement that held out through
periods of crisis. However, it has not
survived at least for now it has not
survive survived this latest crisis
because just the outrage over selective
killing of tourists. These are not just
all tourists but selectively Hindus
after
identification that has caused an
outrage in the country. Also these
bodies have gone to as the prime
minister said in his speech they've gone
to all parts of the country as far as
Arunachal Pradesh. There is grief
everywhere and there is anger
everywhere. That's the reason India's
border treaty has been put in obeyance.
The fact is that in
2021, India had already moved the right
quarters that is the forbal quarters by
asking Pakistan for a renegotiation of
the treaty because India saw some
problems with it. I will explain these
problems to you as we go ahead. I had
done some of this in an earlier Kartaka
clutter episode 164. Today's is episode
1646. So this is 2 and 1/2 years later.
Then this issue had come up. India had
asked for a renegotiation but it did not
go anywhere. What does the Indust water
treaty say? So look at this map. This is
the map of the northern subcontinent and
this this tells you see see these see
these rivers coming in from the
Himalayan region. All of these are
Himalayan rivers. Some originate from
Tibet. Some originate from within India.
So if you see these rivers you start
Indas originates from from Tibet in in
China. Satlooj originates in Tibet in
China and then none of the others
involved in this case originate in
China. Chinab which is one of the
western rivers. Essential fact of Indas
waters treaty is that the rivers of the
west the west rivers of the west are
Indas, Chennab, Jalam that is three
rivers then Rai, Bas and Satluch those
are the three rivers on the eastern
side. Almost all of the water of the
western rivers that is Indas, Chennab
Ben and Jalam belongs to Pakistan in the
sense that India is supposed to let it
go to Pakistan minus some say about 18%
or so which India can keep and that is
water for local irrigation for local
drinking power generation some gets
consumed like that just like that so the
rest goes into Pakistan that is the
commitment in the treaty however
of the three eastern rivers that is
Ravi, Bas and Satloj. All of the water
belongs to India. All of the water
belongs to India. India has no
obligation to give any water to
Pakistan. If India so wishes, India can
shut these rivers off and nothing will
go into Pakistan. India has done almost
as much. The fact is that after building
a series of dams on these rivers, India
already uses about
90%. Aspirationally about 95% but 90%
mainly because the hurricane dam or the
hurricane bar the last point where the
Slouch goes into goes into
Pakistan before which and where Bas
already has joined Satloj that is where
the confluence is that that barrage
needs repairs. The second thing is that
another dam called called Shapur Kandi
that's been delayed for a very long
time. It's only now that Shapur Kandi
dam has been constructed. Reservoir is
fullying up. I think this monsoon it
will be full up. That that reservoir
will also stop a lot of water. That
water otherwise would have gone into
into Pakistan or to the Pakistani side
because Rabi river is a complex river. I
will come to that. But before we go into
those minutiae, let me give you the
larger figure. While it's one thing to
say that three rivers the water mostly
belongs to Pakistan or almost entirely
belongs to Pakistan, India has to let
go. Those are the western rivers going
through Jammu and Kashmir and Ladak.
While it's one thing to say that three
rivers of the west water belongs to
Pakistan and three rivers of the east
water belongs to India, the equation is
not so simple because the rivers of the
of the western region carry a lot more
water than rivers of the east. If you
look at all the water that India is
entitled to from the three rivers that
India owns, if I may put it like that,
then it comes to about 20 billion cub m.
What is a cubic meter? One cubic meter
is a thousand liters. It's like a
thousand bottles of biscary, aquafina,
kinlay, whatever. So you can visualize
that is 1 cubic meter. So 20 billion
cubic m sounds like a lot of water that
belongs to India. However, what Pakistan
gets is a lot more. Pakistan gets five
times as much. In fact, more than five
times as much. That is
218 billion cub m. That's from the
western rivers that is the Indust water
treaty. Now even within the three rivers
that India has on the eastern side there
are complexities river Ravi for example
it is it is it is described as a
transborder river because it's along one
of the tributaries of a tributary of
Ravi. Oj river is a tributary of Ravi.
Please look at your map carefully. It's
along that tributary that Siril
Radcliffe drew the line. do drew the
border line and from then on the teasil
of Shagar, Patanort and Gurdaspur border
bent along those tile or you can say
Taluka I don't know how you call Tessil
in many parts of the country usage
differs that is where the line was drawn
now if you see Rabi river it's called
it's called a transporter river because
until it goes into Pakistan it forms the
border between India and Pakistan. On
the Indian side there all there's always
been suspicion that while Pakistan does
not openly steal from the river they
carry out a lot of deep irrigation
alongside the river to draw out the
water which should have belonged to
India. At the same time Indas water
treaty says that Pakistan is bound by
the treaty to allow the free flow of the
water of these rivers and their
tributaries. These three eastern rivers
if they happen to stray through
Pakistani territory. Now that happens
with Satlooj in one place near Sulamani
headworks also it happens with Ravi.
Again, UJ river which is a significant
tributary of the Ravi that emanates that
comes out of above Kishwar from one side
of Piranjal ranges in in the larger
Jammu area and then it then it goes 100
kilometers into Pakistani Punjab. It
goes into Pakistani Punjab the Uj river
then makes a U-turn and comes back into
India. All of this water is India's. So
even if water goes into Pakistan,
Pakistan is not supposed to use it. This
water belongs to the Rai river. That's
the reason India has been trying to
build a dam called the UJ project which
would detain quite a bit of this water.
So it doesn't go into Pakistan. It does
not give them the option of drawing it.
This however is India's water. This is
not on one of the western rivers. This
is on one of the eastern rivers.
However, all these projects then keep
running into questions, challenges,
litigation because when the two
countries don't see eye to eye on
anything, why would they why would they
agree at least not agree easily on
anything to do with water which is such
a sensitive subject? Now, now once
again, now once again see the big
picture. See the big picture and see how
these rivers are coming out. Indas is
sort of the mother system. That's why
Indas waters treaty it is sort of the
mother system but very little of indust
goes through India. It enters India in
Lada, goes right through Ladak and then
goes into Pakistan occupied Kashmir,
Gilgit Baltistan areas goes around Nanga
Parbat then goes into Kabar Paktuna and
then near the Bandon the famous Bandon
at mentioned much in the Kipling
literature that's where river Kabul
joins it and then river Indas comes into
Punjab. AB Pakistani Punjab near a place
called Kalapani along Indas there are
many major projects and also along its
tributaries in the Pakistani controlled
side including Gilgit Baltistan which is
India's territory look at the map of
India there is no doubt about that
that's because there is a lot of incline
available the more incline you have in a
water course rivers stream whatever the
more power you can produce then the
indust
flows towards the sea towards Karachi if
you look at the map that's how it looks
and as it's flowing in that direction
the five rivers of Punjab the three
eastern rivers and then Chennab and
Jalam are also also have also after
crossing into Pakistani Punjab they are
also converging so they converge
together in a place called Pangjanad
Pangjanad five five rivers right five
rivers join there it becomes a much
bigger river and later later before
Sakur they join the Indas that is
sometimes called Satnut because five
Punjab rivers one Indas and one Kabul
river so it becomes Satnut that then
becomes a humongous river through
through much of the year it can be many
kilometers wide particularly during the
monsoon when water comes in from
different waterheds because it gets
water from Himalayan waterershed It also
it also gets the waters from the
Hindukush waters. So that is the system
right now and that is what the issue is
about. India is now saying that we don't
feel particularly bound by India's water
treaty which means what it doesn't mean
that India can immediately stop the flow
of water. India does not have the
infrastructure ready even if it wanted
to stop the flow of water. But it means
India stops sharing information. It
means projects that Pakistan might have
got injuncted through the Indas waters
tribunal. For example, the project on
Kishan Ganga river. Kishan Ganga on the
Pakistani side is called Nam river. So
as the river goes into Kishan Ganga in
the Pakistani occupied Kashmir area is
called Nam river. Nu m. there they have
also built a project called Nilm Jalam
project. They've been disputing Kishan
Ganga project with India although India
returns all the water it uses to
generate power to them. The Pakistani
argument however is that while you
return it's all right you return the
water to us but you don't return the
water to us in the same place. What that
means is Pakistanis say that you that
you use this water to generate
electricity and then you you let some of
it go into another tributary of the
Kishan Ganga river. So while it comes
and joins the Numm system, it does not
come where our Num Jam project is
located. So there is a dispute about
that. Pakistan's in international court
for that and also the other big project
on the Indian side Ratlay dam on on
Chennab river that also Pakistan has got
blocked Pakistan has got injuncted. So I
told you earlier when India wanted a
renegotiation what was that
renegotiation about? Mainly it was about
article 9 of the Indust treaty. What
does article 9 say? Article 9 says in
case of a dispute there will be three
things that three options that the two
sides will have. One to resolve it
bilaterally by talking with each other.
Second you can reach out to a neutral
expert and say that whatever the expert
says both of us will agree and third is
that you ask for the constitution of a
tribunal. A tribunal means each side
then nominates two members and the
chairman or chairperson sorry is is
named by the world bank. Its order is
binding also it can injunct either side.
Now India India did not dispute this
formulation. India just wanted a
hierarchy of options that first talk
bilaterally second appoint an expert
third have a tribunal. The situation the
current situation was that either side
to could take resort to anything. So
with Ratley for example India first said
India first said an expert an expert was
named Pakistan went went and said a
tribunal. So both processes are were
going on simultaneously. It was a
non-starter because the expert the
Pakistanis did not accept and the
tribunal India did not even nominate its
members. So India wanted that especially
besides other things that that India
wanted especially besides many other
things especially that article 9 amended
that is the larger issue the rest is a
matter of detail you can see satloj
there are some concerns that this could
trigger the Chinese into giving India
trouble because they are the upper
riparian when it comes to Indas Satloj
and Brahutra Indas anything the Chinese
do will affect the Pakistanis. So
unlikely they will do anything. Satloj
about 10% of Satloj's water comes from
comes from the Chinese side from from
the Tipatan side. So it's not that much
water but remember that water can come
in glacial bursts and that's where we
had a disaster not long ago and that is
that's a matter of concern. In fact,
India was very worried when after
Galwan, China had stopped sharing this
border data. I believe some of that has
started now or at least the resumption
of that process has been talked about.
The third is far in the east and that is
something we talked about in great
detail in Kataka the other day. That's
the new mega dam that the Chinese are
building on their side just because just
before just before the braotra does that
humongous bend and comes into India that
is a matter of concern that will take
time but you know history is not made of
fortnights or weeks or years history is
made of generations that's why it's
important that India accelerates the
work on the subansuri dam subansuri dam
will have a reservoir not a very big
reservoir But still a reasonable size
reservoir. It's a run of the river dam.
But that reservoir will be useful in
case there is a threat of flooding from
the other side because if you are being
flooded from the other side at least you
will be able to hold some water in this
reservoir. That is also indirectly the
function of some of the other run of the
river projects being constructed but
long delayed on rivers tributaries
coming into the brahutraat in case there
is a catastrophic flooding each one of
these could could hold some water from
the tributaries that is the larger
picture at which point I ask Moshmi
Dascupta to join in Moshmi thanks for
joining in you've been covering the
water issues very closely and also
tracking some of these projects you
visited some uh give us an idea of what
impact
this decision to hold the Indust water
treaty in a bay have uh well this
decision to put the treaty on hold so in
the short term you know it gives India
opportunity to fasttrack projects
fasttrack projects like the 850 megawatt
Ratlay hydropower project which is
coming up on the chain of river so right
now I I mean it it is under work but
Pakistan has taken both the Ratlay it
has objected to the both the Kishan
Ganga project which is which was
completed in 2018 and Ratlay on the
ground that you know it changes the flow
of the river and uh it will divert water
from the western river where ch where
Pakistan has unrestricted access. So in
fact Pakistan has gone to the court of
arbitration and uh India has gone to
neutral experts. So the world bank has
started two processes parallelly. So I
mean in the till the time that the
project are uh till the time that the
treaty is in a it gives India time if
they want to to expedite the you know
completion of the project. Also what it
all also what it means is that uh you
know since uh the treaty is no treaty
has has been temporarily suspended. So
uh India can uh flush the reservoirs uh
for instance the one in the Kishan Ganga
uh plant uh and fill it up. So the IWT
treaty mandated that uh flushing happens
only in during August during the peak
monsoon season. and flushing means
desilting the reserve oil and then
filling it up. So in the SWAT treaty
mandated that that h should happen only
in August but now because it has been
put on hold. So India can you know if it
wants it can flush the reservoir desill
the reservoir at any any time also it
gives India an opportunity if it
actually wants to build up storage
capacity on the Jalam main river. Right
now India doesn't has a storage capacity
on Jalam which is one of the western
rivers. So if India wants it can you
know it can uh devel it it can build a
dam it can it can build a storage
capacity it can build a barrage and to
regulate the water flow of Jalam uh so
that is another thing that will take a
long time that's going to take a long
time in the short term you know India
doesn't need to share dischar discharge
data with Pakistan or the flood data
with Pakistan which they are mandated to
do now under the indust water treaty
also it doesn't need to allow Pakistan
to uh you know tour uh sites of ongoing
and new projects on the on the on the on
the in this uh river basin which is
mandated under the treaty that any
project any new project that India is
building it has to you know share all
the information with Pakistan and
Pakistan can uh come and visit the site
and India has to allow it but now I They
are under no obligation to do that
because the treaty has been put in
abance. The important thing to
understand is that a treaty is in
obeyance. Treaty has not been abroated
just as the Pakistanis have put the
Shimla agreement on hold. Right. Right.
So what are the other projects which
have been planned or which are held up
or which are park built on the western
rivers. So on the western river uh for
instance Tishan Ganga project it was
completed in 2018 like I said but there
are other hydropower projects like the
uh Ratlay uh Pakadul, Kiru, Kawir so uh
which are under construction uh under
various stages of construction and all
these projects I mean they were put on
the fasttrack mode uh uh after 2016
after the UI attack Uri attack on the
army camp uh in Kash Kashmir. So there
was this uh there was this task force
that was set up under the then principal
secretary in the prime minister's office
Nepin Mishra to fasttrack these
projects. So work has been expedited
since then but uh it's yet to be
completed. So these are the main
projects that are coming up on the uh
western river and the eastern rivers. So
on the eastern river you have the Shapur
Kandi dam which has been completed but
uh I mean it will take some more time
for it to become operational because
though the reservoir is complete the two
hydroar plant uh will be completed by
2025 end. Yeah but but irrigation can
start. Yeah, irrigation because as far
as irrigation is concerned in fact and
it's it's a surprise it's it's Jammu and
Kashmir or Jammu region which is a
bigger beneficiary of irrigation from
this river than than Punjab that that's
how this was negotiated in 1979 Shik
Abdullah and Pakar Sim Badel then chief
minister they signed the agreement 1982
Mrs. Gandhi laid the foundation stone of
this project. It was supposed to be
completed in 1999 2025. We are still we
are still sitting here. In fact, if you
look at the area that will come under
irrigation
32,123 hectares will be in Jammu region
that is Katwa and Samba and about 5,000
hectares in Punjab and 206 megawatt
electricity will be produced which I
think is incidentally to the project.
The whole point is that this water
should not be going into Ravi river
because Pakistan then also once one it
ultimately goes into Pakistan because
soon after this the river becomes the
border between India and Pakistan and
then Pakistan can pull it out through
deep uh through deep tube wells from the
other side. So this is to protect that
water and bring it to the Indian side.
When this happens then India gets almost
100% access to almost 100% of the water
of the three eastern rivers. Yeah. uh
once the shapur kandi project is
complete and becomes operational and the
multij multi-purpose project gets
completed then uh I mean technically
India gets to utilize 100% of the uh
water from the eastern bar is some
additional water that comes up during
monsoon time which sometimes can become
as as much as 9 billion cubic meters
depend depending on the size of the
monsoon so if you have the reservoirs
you can you can hold most more of it in
fact earlier Here this is after after
the parliament attack in a cabinet
meeting in a CCS meeting of the Baj Pay
government this issue was brought up by
Eshwan Sina in one of the Baj Pay
government's cabinet committees and
security meetings after parliament
attack when oparakram was going on and
he said that terrorism is an atrocity by
the Pakistani establishment on our
people. So we should also do something,
India should do something that also
imposes punitive costs on Pakistan's
people. So they feel the pain and one
way of doing that was to deny them even
the small amounts of water from the
eastern rivers that was still going
there. So this thought has been an old
one and after that Nitan Gutkari once
said that I will build these dams and
then no water will go to Pakistan. Then
in the course of time he ceased to be
water resources minister also. And these
these projects sort of went along at the
usual Indian speed not with the kind of
urgency it should have had given the
strategic implications and the strategic
idea behind it. Yeah. I mean in fact
they were put on fasttrack mode in after
2016 after that uh highowered task force
was set up under Nependra Mishna. So uh
and and that that's why Shahur Gandhi
coming on stream is good news and
uj hopefully in the course of time will
happen but these are on our rivers these
are not on rivers that whose water
belongs to Pakistan although rivers as I
told you about the Ravi a tributary goes
into Pakistan and comes back both the
Ravi and the Satloj in the border areas
skirt Pakistan the treaty says the
Pakistanis can't interrupt any of that
water flow. Similarly, if you see a long
river like the Indas, it starts in Tibet
but it it goes through Ladak and right
across Pakistan and before it goes into
the Arabian Sea. It then breaks up into
tributaries. one of those tributaries
again goes through India a little bit
and that is where India has many
complaints with Pakistan because as if
that tributary changes directions rivers
rivers don't need visas to go anywhere
and river rivers don't need any gate
pass or any any security pass to go
anywhere they choose their own course so
so the
industry problem and some other problems
India has in that area India believes
that Pakistan has built something called
left bank outflow drain LBOD which
pushes more salt water to the Indian
side. So our soil becomes more marshy
and there's always a dispute about that.
So rivers are always a contentious issue
because rivers are very powerful and
that is why this policy shift by India
amounts to a very major move. You agree
Mshi? Yes. In fact today afternoon I was
interviewing the former Indian
commissioner for indust water Mr. PK
Sakenna who said that you know for a
long time India has felt that Pakistan
is using the Indust water treaty as a
political tool against India to stall
development in Jammu and Kashmir and you
know it's not I mean India is not
getting anything out of it. So in fact
uh India has been uh talking about
reviewing this treaty for quite some
time. first time in 2016 after the UI
attack uh I mean prime minister Modi had
said that you know they I mean the
treaty needs to be reviewed nothing
happened nothing much happened then but
then again in 2023
uh India wrote to Pakistan saying that
you know they want to renegotiate the
treaty and uh nothing again no response
from Pakistan India followed it up again
in 2023 2024
uh that you know uh we want to review
the treaty nothing happened. So this
time around India is saying that you
know it is I mean it has put it on aance
and in fact Mr. Sakana said that this is
the first step towards abrogating the
treaty. I see. So so to that extent
India has crossed the policy Rubicon.
Yeah. And and it's an irony because
Rubicon in sort of Roman history is
actually a river. Right.
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