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Leverage & strategic play as India pauses Indus Waters Treaty after Pahalgam_ & Pakistan's 'loss'
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mutual funds top. This is the right [Music] times. This is the right time. Investments are subject to market risks. Read all scheme related documents carefully. There are weeks when news cycle moves really fast. That's tough for us journalists. There are days then when new cycle moves even faster, right? That is tougher still. But then there can be weeks with successive days where new cycle moves all the time. All the time a new headline comes and and an important headline comes. So we just had we were still figuring out the implications and importance of India's holding the Indas waters treaty in obeyance and I had done some homework homework on that and I will share that with you and my colleague our deputy editor Mashmi Das Gupta will join in in in in a bit after I've explained the larger situation to you to talk about particular projects she'll join me in and while we were still sort of digesting it and understanding it. The prime minister spoke out this morning which was very important and some sort of a diplomatic response diplomatic to the extent that India's steps were taken on the diplomatic plane non-military plane. Pakistan has also announced its own responses. So what are we doing then? This is a rare day when you are going to have two episodes of kataklatter. So this will be the first will come out earlier us talking about India's waters treaty and what it means what does India's holding it in in a base means what are the choices what are the prospects what does it mean for India for Pakistan and what is the picture on the ground just to understand the industry because this is not just something everybody says Indas waters treaty do this do that good bad etc but we need to understand what it is that is what I will do right now So we know that Indas waters treaty is something that India and Pakistan signed with the mediation of the World Bank. World Bank is a signary and a kind of third empire to this. This was signed in 1960 between Phil Marshall Aayub and and Javaral Neu on the Indian side. This treaty has so far stood the test of time. It's been 65 years. This treaty has held through through wars that is 1965 1971 many near wars including Cargill of Parakram etc etc. This in fact is held out because this is a world that's heading for water wars in many areas or water wars in the sense that there are many serious issues with water in many areas. The most important that we will see going ahead besides of course the indust waters in India system waters in the subcontinent will be what's happening with river Nile in in Africa because when Egypt was the only developed country in that area it made use of river Nile and built a lot of economy around it. Now the countries which are upstream of the river because that's a south north flowing river. the the poorer countries of the past also want to use the water and that's where that is Sudan, Ethiopia etc. and that's where trouble is coming up. So Indas waters treaty was seen as an example of a good agreement that held out through periods of crisis. However, it has not survived at least for now it has not survive survived this latest crisis because just the outrage over selective killing of tourists. These are not just all tourists but selectively Hindus after identification that has caused an outrage in the country. Also these bodies have gone to as the prime minister said in his speech they've gone to all parts of the country as far as Arunachal Pradesh. There is grief everywhere and there is anger everywhere. That's the reason India's border treaty has been put in obeyance. The fact is that in 2021, India had already moved the right quarters that is the forbal quarters by asking Pakistan for a renegotiation of the treaty because India saw some problems with it. I will explain these problems to you as we go ahead. I had done some of this in an earlier Kartaka clutter episode 164. Today's is episode 1646. So this is 2 and 1/2 years later. Then this issue had come up. India had asked for a renegotiation but it did not go anywhere. What does the Indust water treaty say? So look at this map. This is the map of the northern subcontinent and this this tells you see see these see these rivers coming in from the Himalayan region. All of these are Himalayan rivers. Some originate from Tibet. Some originate from within India. So if you see these rivers you start Indas originates from from Tibet in in China. Satlooj originates in Tibet in China and then none of the others involved in this case originate in China. Chinab which is one of the western rivers. Essential fact of Indas waters treaty is that the rivers of the west the west rivers of the west are Indas, Chennab, Jalam that is three rivers then Rai, Bas and Satluch those are the three rivers on the eastern side. Almost all of the water of the western rivers that is Indas, Chennab Ben and Jalam belongs to Pakistan in the sense that India is supposed to let it go to Pakistan minus some say about 18% or so which India can keep and that is water for local irrigation for local drinking power generation some gets consumed like that just like that so the rest goes into Pakistan that is the commitment in the treaty however of the three eastern rivers that is Ravi, Bas and Satloj. All of the water belongs to India. All of the water belongs to India. India has no obligation to give any water to Pakistan. If India so wishes, India can shut these rivers off and nothing will go into Pakistan. India has done almost as much. The fact is that after building a series of dams on these rivers, India already uses about 90%. Aspirationally about 95% but 90% mainly because the hurricane dam or the hurricane bar the last point where the Slouch goes into goes into Pakistan before which and where Bas already has joined Satloj that is where the confluence is that that barrage needs repairs. The second thing is that another dam called called Shapur Kandi that's been delayed for a very long time. It's only now that Shapur Kandi dam has been constructed. Reservoir is fullying up. I think this monsoon it will be full up. That that reservoir will also stop a lot of water. That water otherwise would have gone into into Pakistan or to the Pakistani side because Rabi river is a complex river. I will come to that. But before we go into those minutiae, let me give you the larger figure. While it's one thing to say that three rivers the water mostly belongs to Pakistan or almost entirely belongs to Pakistan, India has to let go. Those are the western rivers going through Jammu and Kashmir and Ladak. While it's one thing to say that three rivers of the west water belongs to Pakistan and three rivers of the east water belongs to India, the equation is not so simple because the rivers of the of the western region carry a lot more water than rivers of the east. If you look at all the water that India is entitled to from the three rivers that India owns, if I may put it like that, then it comes to about 20 billion cub m. What is a cubic meter? One cubic meter is a thousand liters. It's like a thousand bottles of biscary, aquafina, kinlay, whatever. So you can visualize that is 1 cubic meter. So 20 billion cubic m sounds like a lot of water that belongs to India. However, what Pakistan gets is a lot more. Pakistan gets five times as much. In fact, more than five times as much. That is 218 billion cub m. That's from the western rivers that is the Indust water treaty. Now even within the three rivers that India has on the eastern side there are complexities river Ravi for example it is it is it is described as a transborder river because it's along one of the tributaries of a tributary of Ravi. Oj river is a tributary of Ravi. Please look at your map carefully. It's along that tributary that Siril Radcliffe drew the line. do drew the border line and from then on the teasil of Shagar, Patanort and Gurdaspur border bent along those tile or you can say Taluka I don't know how you call Tessil in many parts of the country usage differs that is where the line was drawn now if you see Rabi river it's called it's called a transporter river because until it goes into Pakistan it forms the border between India and Pakistan. On the Indian side there all there's always been suspicion that while Pakistan does not openly steal from the river they carry out a lot of deep irrigation alongside the river to draw out the water which should have belonged to India. At the same time Indas water treaty says that Pakistan is bound by the treaty to allow the free flow of the water of these rivers and their tributaries. These three eastern rivers if they happen to stray through Pakistani territory. Now that happens with Satlooj in one place near Sulamani headworks also it happens with Ravi. Again, UJ river which is a significant tributary of the Ravi that emanates that comes out of above Kishwar from one side of Piranjal ranges in in the larger Jammu area and then it then it goes 100 kilometers into Pakistani Punjab. It goes into Pakistani Punjab the Uj river then makes a U-turn and comes back into India. All of this water is India's. So even if water goes into Pakistan, Pakistan is not supposed to use it. This water belongs to the Rai river. That's the reason India has been trying to build a dam called the UJ project which would detain quite a bit of this water. So it doesn't go into Pakistan. It does not give them the option of drawing it. This however is India's water. This is not on one of the western rivers. This is on one of the eastern rivers. However, all these projects then keep running into questions, challenges, litigation because when the two countries don't see eye to eye on anything, why would they why would they agree at least not agree easily on anything to do with water which is such a sensitive subject? Now, now once again, now once again see the big picture. See the big picture and see how these rivers are coming out. Indas is sort of the mother system. That's why Indas waters treaty it is sort of the mother system but very little of indust goes through India. It enters India in Lada, goes right through Ladak and then goes into Pakistan occupied Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan areas goes around Nanga Parbat then goes into Kabar Paktuna and then near the Bandon the famous Bandon at mentioned much in the Kipling literature that's where river Kabul joins it and then river Indas comes into Punjab. AB Pakistani Punjab near a place called Kalapani along Indas there are many major projects and also along its tributaries in the Pakistani controlled side including Gilgit Baltistan which is India's territory look at the map of India there is no doubt about that that's because there is a lot of incline available the more incline you have in a water course rivers stream whatever the more power you can produce then the indust flows towards the sea towards Karachi if you look at the map that's how it looks and as it's flowing in that direction the five rivers of Punjab the three eastern rivers and then Chennab and Jalam are also also have also after crossing into Pakistani Punjab they are also converging so they converge together in a place called Pangjanad Pangjanad five five rivers right five rivers join there it becomes a much bigger river and later later before Sakur they join the Indas that is sometimes called Satnut because five Punjab rivers one Indas and one Kabul river so it becomes Satnut that then becomes a humongous river through through much of the year it can be many kilometers wide particularly during the monsoon when water comes in from different waterheds because it gets water from Himalayan waterershed It also it also gets the waters from the Hindukush waters. So that is the system right now and that is what the issue is about. India is now saying that we don't feel particularly bound by India's water treaty which means what it doesn't mean that India can immediately stop the flow of water. India does not have the infrastructure ready even if it wanted to stop the flow of water. But it means India stops sharing information. It means projects that Pakistan might have got injuncted through the Indas waters tribunal. For example, the project on Kishan Ganga river. Kishan Ganga on the Pakistani side is called Nam river. So as the river goes into Kishan Ganga in the Pakistani occupied Kashmir area is called Nam river. Nu m. there they have also built a project called Nilm Jalam project. They've been disputing Kishan Ganga project with India although India returns all the water it uses to generate power to them. The Pakistani argument however is that while you return it's all right you return the water to us but you don't return the water to us in the same place. What that means is Pakistanis say that you that you use this water to generate electricity and then you you let some of it go into another tributary of the Kishan Ganga river. So while it comes and joins the Numm system, it does not come where our Num Jam project is located. So there is a dispute about that. Pakistan's in international court for that and also the other big project on the Indian side Ratlay dam on on Chennab river that also Pakistan has got blocked Pakistan has got injuncted. So I told you earlier when India wanted a renegotiation what was that renegotiation about? Mainly it was about article 9 of the Indust treaty. What does article 9 say? Article 9 says in case of a dispute there will be three things that three options that the two sides will have. One to resolve it bilaterally by talking with each other. Second you can reach out to a neutral expert and say that whatever the expert says both of us will agree and third is that you ask for the constitution of a tribunal. A tribunal means each side then nominates two members and the chairman or chairperson sorry is is named by the world bank. Its order is binding also it can injunct either side. Now India India did not dispute this formulation. India just wanted a hierarchy of options that first talk bilaterally second appoint an expert third have a tribunal. The situation the current situation was that either side to could take resort to anything. So with Ratley for example India first said India first said an expert an expert was named Pakistan went went and said a tribunal. So both processes are were going on simultaneously. It was a non-starter because the expert the Pakistanis did not accept and the tribunal India did not even nominate its members. So India wanted that especially besides other things that that India wanted especially besides many other things especially that article 9 amended that is the larger issue the rest is a matter of detail you can see satloj there are some concerns that this could trigger the Chinese into giving India trouble because they are the upper riparian when it comes to Indas Satloj and Brahutra Indas anything the Chinese do will affect the Pakistanis. So unlikely they will do anything. Satloj about 10% of Satloj's water comes from comes from the Chinese side from from the Tipatan side. So it's not that much water but remember that water can come in glacial bursts and that's where we had a disaster not long ago and that is that's a matter of concern. In fact, India was very worried when after Galwan, China had stopped sharing this border data. I believe some of that has started now or at least the resumption of that process has been talked about. The third is far in the east and that is something we talked about in great detail in Kataka the other day. That's the new mega dam that the Chinese are building on their side just because just before just before the braotra does that humongous bend and comes into India that is a matter of concern that will take time but you know history is not made of fortnights or weeks or years history is made of generations that's why it's important that India accelerates the work on the subansuri dam subansuri dam will have a reservoir not a very big reservoir But still a reasonable size reservoir. It's a run of the river dam. But that reservoir will be useful in case there is a threat of flooding from the other side because if you are being flooded from the other side at least you will be able to hold some water in this reservoir. That is also indirectly the function of some of the other run of the river projects being constructed but long delayed on rivers tributaries coming into the brahutraat in case there is a catastrophic flooding each one of these could could hold some water from the tributaries that is the larger picture at which point I ask Moshmi Dascupta to join in Moshmi thanks for joining in you've been covering the water issues very closely and also tracking some of these projects you visited some uh give us an idea of what impact this decision to hold the Indust water treaty in a bay have uh well this decision to put the treaty on hold so in the short term you know it gives India opportunity to fasttrack projects fasttrack projects like the 850 megawatt Ratlay hydropower project which is coming up on the chain of river so right now I I mean it it is under work but Pakistan has taken both the Ratlay it has objected to the both the Kishan Ganga project which is which was completed in 2018 and Ratlay on the ground that you know it changes the flow of the river and uh it will divert water from the western river where ch where Pakistan has unrestricted access. So in fact Pakistan has gone to the court of arbitration and uh India has gone to neutral experts. So the world bank has started two processes parallelly. So I mean in the till the time that the project are uh till the time that the treaty is in a it gives India time if they want to to expedite the you know completion of the project. Also what it all also what it means is that uh you know since uh the treaty is no treaty has has been temporarily suspended. So uh India can uh flush the reservoirs uh for instance the one in the Kishan Ganga uh plant uh and fill it up. So the IWT treaty mandated that uh flushing happens only in during August during the peak monsoon season. and flushing means desilting the reserve oil and then filling it up. So in the SWAT treaty mandated that that h should happen only in August but now because it has been put on hold. So India can you know if it wants it can flush the reservoir desill the reservoir at any any time also it gives India an opportunity if it actually wants to build up storage capacity on the Jalam main river. Right now India doesn't has a storage capacity on Jalam which is one of the western rivers. So if India wants it can you know it can uh devel it it can build a dam it can it can build a storage capacity it can build a barrage and to regulate the water flow of Jalam uh so that is another thing that will take a long time that's going to take a long time in the short term you know India doesn't need to share dischar discharge data with Pakistan or the flood data with Pakistan which they are mandated to do now under the indust water treaty also it doesn't need to allow Pakistan to uh you know tour uh sites of ongoing and new projects on the on the on the on the in this uh river basin which is mandated under the treaty that any project any new project that India is building it has to you know share all the information with Pakistan and Pakistan can uh come and visit the site and India has to allow it but now I They are under no obligation to do that because the treaty has been put in abance. The important thing to understand is that a treaty is in obeyance. Treaty has not been abroated just as the Pakistanis have put the Shimla agreement on hold. Right. Right. So what are the other projects which have been planned or which are held up or which are park built on the western rivers. So on the western river uh for instance Tishan Ganga project it was completed in 2018 like I said but there are other hydropower projects like the uh Ratlay uh Pakadul, Kiru, Kawir so uh which are under construction uh under various stages of construction and all these projects I mean they were put on the fasttrack mode uh uh after 2016 after the UI attack Uri attack on the army camp uh in Kash Kashmir. So there was this uh there was this task force that was set up under the then principal secretary in the prime minister's office Nepin Mishra to fasttrack these projects. So work has been expedited since then but uh it's yet to be completed. So these are the main projects that are coming up on the uh western river and the eastern rivers. So on the eastern river you have the Shapur Kandi dam which has been completed but uh I mean it will take some more time for it to become operational because though the reservoir is complete the two hydroar plant uh will be completed by 2025 end. Yeah but but irrigation can start. Yeah, irrigation because as far as irrigation is concerned in fact and it's it's a surprise it's it's Jammu and Kashmir or Jammu region which is a bigger beneficiary of irrigation from this river than than Punjab that that's how this was negotiated in 1979 Shik Abdullah and Pakar Sim Badel then chief minister they signed the agreement 1982 Mrs. Gandhi laid the foundation stone of this project. It was supposed to be completed in 1999 2025. We are still we are still sitting here. In fact, if you look at the area that will come under irrigation 32,123 hectares will be in Jammu region that is Katwa and Samba and about 5,000 hectares in Punjab and 206 megawatt electricity will be produced which I think is incidentally to the project. The whole point is that this water should not be going into Ravi river because Pakistan then also once one it ultimately goes into Pakistan because soon after this the river becomes the border between India and Pakistan and then Pakistan can pull it out through deep uh through deep tube wells from the other side. So this is to protect that water and bring it to the Indian side. When this happens then India gets almost 100% access to almost 100% of the water of the three eastern rivers. Yeah. uh once the shapur kandi project is complete and becomes operational and the multij multi-purpose project gets completed then uh I mean technically India gets to utilize 100% of the uh water from the eastern bar is some additional water that comes up during monsoon time which sometimes can become as as much as 9 billion cubic meters depend depending on the size of the monsoon so if you have the reservoirs you can you can hold most more of it in fact earlier Here this is after after the parliament attack in a cabinet meeting in a CCS meeting of the Baj Pay government this issue was brought up by Eshwan Sina in one of the Baj Pay government's cabinet committees and security meetings after parliament attack when oparakram was going on and he said that terrorism is an atrocity by the Pakistani establishment on our people. So we should also do something, India should do something that also imposes punitive costs on Pakistan's people. So they feel the pain and one way of doing that was to deny them even the small amounts of water from the eastern rivers that was still going there. So this thought has been an old one and after that Nitan Gutkari once said that I will build these dams and then no water will go to Pakistan. Then in the course of time he ceased to be water resources minister also. And these these projects sort of went along at the usual Indian speed not with the kind of urgency it should have had given the strategic implications and the strategic idea behind it. Yeah. I mean in fact they were put on fasttrack mode in after 2016 after that uh highowered task force was set up under Nependra Mishna. So uh and and that that's why Shahur Gandhi coming on stream is good news and uj hopefully in the course of time will happen but these are on our rivers these are not on rivers that whose water belongs to Pakistan although rivers as I told you about the Ravi a tributary goes into Pakistan and comes back both the Ravi and the Satloj in the border areas skirt Pakistan the treaty says the Pakistanis can't interrupt any of that water flow. Similarly, if you see a long river like the Indas, it starts in Tibet but it it goes through Ladak and right across Pakistan and before it goes into the Arabian Sea. It then breaks up into tributaries. one of those tributaries again goes through India a little bit and that is where India has many complaints with Pakistan because as if that tributary changes directions rivers rivers don't need visas to go anywhere and river rivers don't need any gate pass or any any security pass to go anywhere they choose their own course so so the industry problem and some other problems India has in that area India believes that Pakistan has built something called left bank outflow drain LBOD which pushes more salt water to the Indian side. So our soil becomes more marshy and there's always a dispute about that. So rivers are always a contentious issue because rivers are very powerful and that is why this policy shift by India amounts to a very major move. You agree Mshi? Yes. In fact today afternoon I was interviewing the former Indian commissioner for indust water Mr. PK Sakenna who said that you know for a long time India has felt that Pakistan is using the Indust water treaty as a political tool against India to stall development in Jammu and Kashmir and you know it's not I mean India is not getting anything out of it. So in fact uh India has been uh talking about reviewing this treaty for quite some time. first time in 2016 after the UI attack uh I mean prime minister Modi had said that you know they I mean the treaty needs to be reviewed nothing happened nothing much happened then but then again in 2023 uh India wrote to Pakistan saying that you know they want to renegotiate the treaty and uh nothing again no response from Pakistan India followed it up again in 2023 2024 uh that you know uh we want to review the treaty nothing happened. So this time around India is saying that you know it is I mean it has put it on aance and in fact Mr. Sakana said that this is the first step towards abrogating the treaty. I see. So so to that extent India has crossed the policy Rubicon. Yeah. And and it's an irony because Rubicon in sort of Roman history is actually a river. Right. [Music] [Applause] [Music]
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