Recent polling in South Australia suggests a significant realignment on the Australian political right, with the Liberal Party facing a potential decline and the rise of One Nation, indicating a broader fragmentation of the political landscape and a growing voter desire for systemic change.
Mind Map
Click to expand
Click to explore the full interactive mind map • Zoom, pan, and navigate
Well, Angus Taylor has named his new
front bench, but that discussion can
wait. We have a new lead, Tony, and it
goes to the heart of the historic shift
in the right of Australian politics. For
months now that we, or at least
certainly I did, we thought that the
Austral the South Australian election in
four weeks time would be predictable. Uh
that Labour basically would win easily.
Um in fact, they could even win close to
the mark of Mark McGau in in Western
Australia with that historic victory
there. Um, but what I mean by that, a
two-way contest uh with one uh clear
winner. But now a news poll tells us
that um
uh that this could mean far more than
that. It it could have federal
implications and it just might be the
first real time election outcome that
tells us the story that uh or it
certainly confirms the story of the
decline of the Liberal Party and the
realignment on the right. Uh the poll
I'm talking about is a news poll, South
Australian election, state election. It
has ALP on 44 primary vote and we
expected that I guess but the real
kicker is One Nation on 24 and the LIBS
on just 14. Now there's a second poll, a
UGG poll in the Adelaide Advertiser
which is a bit better than that for the
Liberal Party. Uh but it still has One
Nation ahead of them uh 22 to 20. It
just seems to me that this tells you
there's a whole new ball game around
that the Liberal Party is not now
realistically fighting for government.
What it's fighting to achieve is to
remain the major party in opposition.
Tony, if those polls are anywhere near
accurate, if that is the outcome, what
are the consequences?
>> I think they're accurate in terms of a
snapshot uh in time. uh the real test
will be does it hold until the election
and of course in uh South Australia
that's in March and does it translate
into votes on the actual day and of
course for that you need to have
campaign machinery you need to have uh
candidates and um volunteers and and
fundraising so there's a long way to go
yet and but the only real test will be
on that night but I think we can pretty
confidently say there's a major
realignment happening on the center
right at the moment
and a fragmentation of the major party
vote and um you know the little party
are fighting for its very survival right now.
now.
>> And when you make that point about it
holding up of course um the experience
in South Australia itself was with Nick
Zenapon um whose party actually led the
primary vote um in in in polling leading
up to an election. It didn't hold up
under scrutiny. Um there was sort of a
lack of policies I suppose and again
that's still that's still to come. This
is an opinion poll. people tend to use
that as a protest vote at times and and
so the the one nation has to survive the
scrutiny that will now come on them in
the same way that it comes on to the
major parties that candidates will have
to repeal at the local level. So there
is a long way to go but nevertheless we
haven't seen these kind of numbers before.
before.
>> Yeah. And I think, you know, the real
danger here is that that one nation
vote, I suspect a lot of that is
actually the voters wanting to empower
one nation to shake the whole system up.
And we spoke recently about uh the poll
that we did in for the AFR where we
asked which of the following statements
best aligns with your view of the
political system right now. And we
offered, you know, minor change, major
change, no real change, but burn it all
down. 15% of all voters said burn it all
down. But 35% of One Nation voters said
that. And so I think, you know, those
outrageous comments that Pauline Hansen
made the other night. Um
I'm not convinced that's going to affect
her numbers. I'm going to be looking at
that very, very keenly over the next
round of polls that we're about to
release. I just sort of feel that
there'll be a lot of voters out there
who say, "Look, I don't agree with her.
I think she went too far, but she is the
vehicle I need to burn the showdown."
Just to give some uh some context on
this and and uh for listeners and
viewers right around Australia that
beyond South Australia um what has
happened there in recent times is that
the Marshall government was defeated at
the last election um after just one turn
and comprehensively uh defeated. There
are 47 seats in the in the assembly in
South Australia. Labour got 27 seats in
the lip 16 and there was some
independence but 27 seats and then they
won a couple on top of that uh which is
unusual for a government to win seats
from the opposition in in bi-elections.
They achieved that on back of a 5545 two
party split. Now before today the polls
were suggesting 6139
um in favor of the Labour party and
that's what built this expectation that
Labour was going to win big. Um I think
the the optimists after that poll in the
um in the Liberal party would have would
have thought well they can field a
cricket team and the the realists were
saying well maybe it'll be a netball
team but if that one one nation vote
holds up it it could be worse than that
because the um the most of what is left
of the Liberal Party in South Australia
is in the rural and and regional seats
and that's where One Nation will be at
its strongest.
>> Yeah. Uh I think you know what we're
looking at here is um and we've been
talking about it's going to be an
extinction level event even before the
surge of One Nation purely because Peter
Malanascus was just a political athlete. But
But
the thing that did strike me is as as
catastrophically bad as it is for the
Liberal Party with their votes in the
teens uh in most polls in South
Australia is that Peter Melanas um 12
months ago was polling in the high 40s
primary vote which reflects his you know
performance levels um as a political
communicator and performer but it's now
come down to high30s maybe 40%. So I
think some of that one nation vote
whilst it's the great majority of it is
coming off the Liberal pile obviously
there seems to be a few points coming
off the Labor pile and I guess you know
the the the thing that Labor needs to be
concerned about is are there more votes
to be lost um to One Nation by people
who are frustrated of the two party
system which is something we're seeing
in our focus groups. Um I wouldn't rule
it out. I don't think it's going to
necessarily happen but I wouldn't rule
out that they start eating into Labor
territory soon. Yeah, but it's hard to
see where that happens in South
Australia. Um, you can see it happening
in in other areas and Labour certainly
going to be vulnerable in in some
places, but if you were to get the kind
of doomsday scenario result, would it
start a conversation in this country
about um about the vacuum that will then
exist on the center right of Australian
politics? Because um it's not an area
that that that Labor is seriously
challenging. Um there are times when you
think the Liberal Party has lost
interest in that area. You've got the
Teals capturing part of it, but they are
a series of independents. Uh they're not
a party. Do you think it would start a
conversation around that?
>> Yeah, I think you know the Libery's got
a massive identity crisis right now. You
know, people don't know what they stand
for. They know what they stand against,
but they can't tell you what they stand
for. That sort of um better economic
management legacy that they used to have
is kind of very diminished now. In fact,
you know, Labor generally and most polls
have a lead on that. And if there's, you
know, that was the reason to vote
Liberal all throughout the How and
Costello years. Um, and so I think, you
know, without that to leverage off, I
think, you know, the Liberal part is
going to be in a lot of strife because,
you know, they're being very tactical.
Um, and there's no sort of broader
strategic messaging. Having said that, I
think the, um, reshuffle, uh, this week
was very interesting. um you know uh Tim
Wilson I think is a good choice for
Shadow Treasure. He's a good
communicator. Um but there's a lot of
work to be done.
>> Yeah, I would come back to that in in
quite a bit more detail. But just um
finally on the South Australian
situation, look, I've I've learned the
lesson over many years that you don't
put too much weight on on state election
polls or state election results in terms
of federal implications. But what what
is new about this is that this will be
the first test of whether the surge for
one nation in the polls is going to
transfer to votes on election day. I
think that's that's what now makes South
Australia fascinating uh for the whole
country. But whatever happens, there
will be another chance like for for the
Liberal Party to say, well, let's just
accept we've hit rock bottom now. Oh,
we've got to look at Victoria and that's
where we've got to put in our our
efforts because in late November this
year they will get a second chance and
you would think they'd have a shot at
it. The the danger now is that One
Nation could replicate these kind of
numbers in Victoria and then that would
disturb what is a genuine uh a genuine
prospects on the on the part of the
coalition in Victoria. Yeah, I think if
South Australia is a total annihilation
for the Liberal Party, then compounded
with uh a really poor or modest result
in November on what is a already a
12-year-old government that, let's face
it, has got more than its fair share of
problems and now it's got corruption
sort of allegations with CFMEU and so forth.
forth.
If the coalition can't make up major
ground and win, I think that's going to
be a seminal moment for the Liberal
Party where you know um the panic will
go all the way through to CRA because
you know it is ripe for the taking.
There is 16 seats. That's that's a lot
of ground to make up but um the
preconditions are there for a big
result. Uh we're in the field right now
for Victorian state and uh we should
have those results out soon. Um, but I
think we're going to see similar voting
behaviors and patterns as we're seeing
all around the country at the moment,
which is a surge in support for One
Nation as a form of protest and
empowerment um to shake the whole system
up. Interestingly though, there was a
resolve poll in Queensland out this week
as well. got less publicity, but the LNP
government isn't being hugely bothered
by the one nation vote, but I think
that's due to performance levels of Christopher
Christopher
>> and um general perception that they seem
to be focused on the bread and butter
issues. They're not they're not really
distracted by some of those cultural
issues or fringe issues that that uh the
federal Liberal Party is. But I think
you know what we're looking at here,
Barry, is you know some of these results
in all the polling for the coalition,
not just in CRA. It's not just a Susan
Lay thing. It's a Liberal Party thing
and it's a reminder that if you play on
the political fringes, you start getting
fringe political results.
>> Yeah. Yeah. That's um that's a powerful
point to make and I do look forward to
um to the Red Ridge poll because there
has been some significant variance in
the polls that we've seen so far in
Victoria. One of them I think was the
resolve poll had the the two major
parties at 28 and 30. So sort of toe to
toe and then the Greens and One Nation
toe-to-toe at about 12 and 11, but then
another poll showed One Nation at 21.
Now that's that's a big difference. If
it's up around 21, then it's it does
make it difficult. But you you talk
about the um I I think that CFMEU
scandal uh will have quite an impact. Um
and it'll have an impact because it's
not this is not just the first post Dan
Andrews election which which is
significant in itself but the CFMEU
thing is so that it lends itself to easy
lines. how much money was lost through
corruption. It's all there. Um that the
the the government is is arguing that
it's tidied things up. But the problem
is who was in charge of uh of this
portfolio responsibility when it first
happened. And of course that's just
Ellen, the premier. And the most recent
poll I saw there had um Jess Wilson, the
the relatively new leader of the Liberal
Party on 39 against 20 as uh as
preferred premier. And that that's quite
an achievement for a new leader.
>> Yeah. And I think that was really an
anyone but Justinta Allen uh vote. Um
Jess Wilson is a very good candidate,
but she's very um very much not defined
in the elector. They don't know much
about her. Um she presents well um and
she certainly can create a good story
and good narrative over the next 9
months. But I think for the coalition,
they don't want to overthink this. Um
the challenge is the CFMEU story is
incredibly important and Nick McKenzie
from the age has done some wonderful
work on it but it is a complicated story
to tell you to voters. Um whereas like a
like a travel rot story is very simple.
You know voters understand that they get
that and it enrages them.
But the key word in this CFMU story is
corruption. And I think, you know, they
they just need to keep it at a macro
level, which is um just keep on
emphasizing that word without trying to
tell this detailed complicated story and
introducing Mick Gatau and his lunches
and all that sort of stuff because
that's when I think there's a tendency
to lose voters and they can't see the
personal relevance or personal
consequence to them. And I think, you
know, if I was the coalition in
Victoria, I would be just saying if you
want to get rid of this corrupt,
incompetent government, vote one
liberal. And that hopefully will bring
those sort of one nation voters back.
Not on merit, but just sort of say, you
know, the only way to guarantee to get
rid of this government is to vote one
liberal. Um because if you vote for
another party, there's a danger with
preferences and so forth that you could
end up with a Labor government. So I
think they really need to leverage that
and not overthink it. Um you know it's
not too dissimilar to what Abbott did in
2013 very effectively. Um and I think
you know the coalition has got a real
opportunity here but you know uh One
Nation is looming large and and we all
know Barry um politicians you know they
can panic in these situations and try
and sort of you know out Hansen Hansen
or leap out its shadows and um and make
themselves less competitive. to your
point. You just do your own thing. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> And hope that that works. Uh because if
Jess Wilson fighting her first election
has has to spend time fighting off one
nation as well, it makes it almost
impossible for her. So the approach to
just put that to one side, focus on what
you're about. Um that makes a whole lot
of sense. Um you you raised the um the
new front bench that Angus Taylor has
put together. most most notably I think
he's rewarded uh reward loyalty
certainly loyalty to him but he did
bring in a whole new economic team and
uh I think that's a that's a critical
thing you know the the the kind of
dilemma um uh for the coalition
nationally is that well certainly the
Liberal party in federal in the federal
caucus is in the federal party room is
that most of them now are rural and
regional members and the temptation
would be to see the issues through the
lens of rural and regional Australians
when they just have to get back those
city seats. But when you look at what
has happened, Tim Wilson um his seat is
virtually inner city Melbourne. Jane
Hume has a has an office in Richmond,
which is inner city Melbourne. And uh
the interesting one, the Tasmanian
Senator Cla Chandler, the shadow finance
minister now, she's from Hobart. So the
economic team is well represented with
the city base.
>> Yeah. Um well, as you know, Barry, um uh
my little baby boy turned one this week
and uh he's already lived through three
Liberal leaders. So, um at this rate, by
the time he turns nine, he will cycle
through all 20 or 27 remaining. But um
but you know, as I tell uh Thomas every
night when we put him to bed, you are
now um one sleep closer to another
Liberal leadership spill. And um and I
think that's sort of the heart of the
problem is you know the the great
liberal pastime of looking for a messiah
and a scapegoat and uh the last week um
Susan Lelay has been a scapegoat and uh
Angus Taylor is the new messiah. Um I
thought it was a fairly astute
reshuffle. Um he's rewarded his uh
supporters which you have to do all
sides do it. Um he's tried not to punish
too many Susan lay people. um you know
he's um
because Barry you know uh in this game
in politics you know friends come and go
but you accumulate enemies over time and
I can't think of too many political
leaders that have ended their careers
with less enemies than they started and
um and you've always got to be conscious
that you know a very unhappy disgruntled
backbench um he punished Alex Hawk um
who's now on the back bench that was
totally expected and um I think you're
going to need a telescope to see him.
He's going to be so far on the
backbench. And um uh Cla Chandler I
thought was very interesting. Um her
economic credentials were previously
unknown to me. Um she's probably more
made a mark of talking about transgender
issues, I think, um rather than the
economy. Um and I think that's that's a
concern for the Liberal Party because
it's fine to have those views that she's
got. Um but you know, she's not someone
who's been passionate about the economy.
um in the same way that Tim Wilson Tim
Wilson's been talking about the economy
in his various different careers for a
very long time. In fact, I think he's
got a um a photograph of him and Milton
Friedman on his uh on his office wall
from memory. Um he loves talking about
the economy which is um sets him apart
from some of the other um predecessors.
And look, I think he's got big ideas and
he's always willing to give it a crack.
He doesn't assert or just use talking
points. you try to argue the case which
I think is a lost art these days
>> and the big ideas will be critical to it
because it's one thing to talk about um
what's wrong with the system and he's
done that he says that um the country
needs to cut waste to boost productivity
to deregulate the economy we rely too
much in terms of jobs on government
supported jobs and so on but that's
that's outlining the problem and Angus
Taylor does that all the time as well
it's it's when they come up with the
with the solutions that will matter. You
know, your colleague um Cosmarus, I
think, um um got it right when he said
you've got to see this situation like
you're running a brewery and you're
selling bad beer. And it's not good
enough just to change the CEO.
The CEO has got to start come in and
make better beer. Not beer that just
sells in, and now I'm paraphrasing, this
is my way of expressing it, but you the
beer has to sell outside of um the the
outback pubs in Queensland. It's got to
sell in it's got to sell to young people
and it's got to sell in the cities.
>> You know, one of the coalition's biggest
failings last term was to think they
could just critique their way to
government and then offer a sort of
merely sort of, you know, petrol excise
relief for for 12 months. You know,
that's not going to really sort of
capture the imagination of voters cuz
they're in the market for some bold
policies, bold ideas, you know,
something that gives them a bit of hope
because at the moment, yeah, there's
just entrenched pessimism. And um you
know I think for the coalition you know
they either die on their feet fighting
for something even if it puts a huge
bullseye on them um coming under attack
from charas and Albani
um or they just die on their knees. You
know at the moment they're just on a you
know they're on a pathway to total
irrelevance if they're not careful. And
I think you know just hoping that um
anger in the electorate about the
government is is not going to be enough
for them. And the other aspect too of
the um uh of of the new front benches,
they brought the the nationals back
right away that was decided with a fair
degree of pragmatism. Um Angus Taylor is
the preferred candidate for the
nationals in terms of the Liberal
leadership and in his own words he says
we just want to get on with it. Um with
that in mind, I just want to um read out
part of an email um from Tim Field. It
was a it was a long email, but this is
the part that's relevant to what we're
talking about. Um and he said that he'd
read your analysis in the Guardian and
that Susan Lee is today's uh scapegoat.
I think this is another um dimension
though he says to all of this that the
NATS will become a major issue for the
libs as they formulate policy. The
nationals are moving to the right to
contest one nation in rural areas. Their
policies will overlap and often align
with one nation and they are not
mainstream or acceptable in urban areas.
Has he outlined there the dilemma they
face? Yeah, he's spot on. And um you
know, the National Party of today is not
the National Party of Tim Fischer. And I
think you know, there's a lot of um you
know, I think back to 2004, the late Ron
Boswell um who campaigned hard against
One Nation on the ground. And I think
this is the lesson for the coalition of
today is that How and Castello,
particularly Castello on an economic
narrative um really went in hard on one
nation and the the threats that they
posed to the national economy with their
reductive policies. Um but Boswell on
the ground in Queensland was very
effective in in you know campaigning
against One Nation and one of those
classic sliding door moments. Um he was
so effective with How and Costello
providing that sort of helicopter sort
of air cover um that One Nation didn't
win a Senate spot that year and in fact
the coalition won an unprecedented
fourth spot out of six Senate spots
available which I don't think has ever
happened before and of course that
fourth spot went to a fellow named
Barnaby Joyce um who nobody ever
expected to win and of course um you
know the rest is history. uh Howard then
had the numbers to pursue IR which ended
up being uh a flawed um political
strategy for re-election. But more relevantly,
relevantly,
I think, you know, um and Ron Boswell
sadly passed away um about a month ago,
but you know, I think he would literally
turn in his grave if he realized that
the guy that he effectively helped get
elected in Barnaby Joyce is now joined
One Nation. Um, and that's I think Ron
Boswell and Tim Fischer and all those
fellows, John Anderson, they campaign
really hard against One Nation, took
them front front on. And um, you know, I
saw Jeff Ket come out recently and
suggest that the Victorian Liberal Party
um, cut a deal with One Nation, which
seemed out of character for him. He has
previously campaigned against One
Nation, and I think that's a very flawed strategy.
strategy.
>> I just want to go to one other email. um
um in fact referenced to me in fact from
Belinda Burke and she said she was
disappointed with my comments uh last
week uh when I was talking about the um
the independent Liberal candidate in in
Farah Michelle Milthorp. I did describe
her as a as as a young mother uh a
teacher a netball coach uh from a small
town and went on to say that um given
that she didn't win the seat it could
have been lack of experience and
political acumen and Belinda makes the
point that these are not drawbacks um as
she sees it now that was open to
misinterpretation. I do accept and and I
meant to make the point that all of
those things about it being a young
mother and a net coach and so on are
assets. it was just the the lack of
experience. But um I do accept now that
my comments might have been a bit harsh
because given the the nature of now
what's emerging as the um as the Farah
bi-election um it's the difference this
time it won't be just a liberal
candidate she that she needs to defeat.
It'll be liberals and nationals probably
going up against each other. One nation
will be in there. So somebody um who has
fought the campaign before and has
gained that experience could come
through the middle
>> in in a bi-election like Farah. So, um I
I take it that I'm being suitably
chastised. Uh she went on to say that
she hopes Michelle wins because we need
diversity and she'll represent her
country, uh her community rather than
the the party line. Um but yeah, you
really wouldn't want to try and pick a
winner in in that electorate.
>> No, I think a lot of it's going to come
down because it's effectively, you know,
potentially a four-party contest.
National Liberals, the um climate 200
candidate who ran last time. There's
talk of um the the state MP for Murray
River um resigning and running. So um
and that's without Labor even entering
the contest, which I I don't expect they
will. So that'll be a potentially four
party contest or four candidate contest.
So the order of exclusion of candidates
will be critically important and how
disciplined their voters are in
following how to vote cards. um if they
follow them and and the preference flows
the right way, then you know um you
could very well see one of the
independent candidates elected. Um in
fact, I think it's going to be
incredibly hard for uh a Liberal or a
National Party candidate to win that seat.
seat.
>> Uh just before we take a break, I want
to mention the ISIS brides issue and the
and and their children. It's in the
context of how um I think it
demonstrates how sensitive immigration
is going to be as an issue um at the
next election. But um these people, 34
of them have had seven years in a in a
refugee camp in Syria. Uh their husbands
had either been killed fighting or or in
jail. Um the it's a question I suppose
people are arguing guilt guilt by
association. Um one woman in in the
prohib who was charged I think with
being in a prohibited area. Um only one
and uh she was convicted but no no
prison sentence. I think it was a bond
or something. Um, but the issue just
seems to be centering on whether whether
the government what what approach is the
government taking to these people and it
is a brute of an issue. I mean, I think
if there was more space on on this
issue, it would be very tough on the
government. Um, but the the point is to
what Anthony Albanesey's position is
he's not helping them. I'm not helping
them. He said that his mother said you
made the bed, you know, you lie. That's
certainly not true of the children, some
of them who are being born in that
refugee camp. Um but um that's that's
the position. Um they accept their
Australian citizens. They're entitled to
a passport just in the same way that
they're entitled to a Medicare card. So
if they can find their own way out and
get on a plane back to Australia,
there's not much the Australian
government can do about it. The
authorities would then need to keep an
eye on things and maybe even charge some
of them if they think that they have uh
broken the law. Um but I think just the
enthusiasm um that one nation have taken
on this issue for a start but but the
coalition to a lesser extent as well
demonstrates the whole vulnerability the
difficulty for for the government of
this period over immigration in in a
postbondi atmosphere.
>> Yeah. I think um Mark Riley wrote a
great piece this week where he sort of
pointed out that SCO in 2019 said you
can't punish the children for the sins
of their parents. um the legislation
which allows them to come back was
actually drafted by uh the then minister
for home affairs Peter Dutton and Mark
Riley made the point like if Albani
doesn't need any more right-wing
credibility cover you know to bring them
back but he's obviously totally spooked
by it and I think you know this is the
broader point that that you're making as
well Barry is that
>> you know a lot of the cabinet current
cabinet ministers live through the 2010
to 2013 RD Gillard government where um
uh Rudd basically dismantled the Pacific
solution and either because of that or
completely coincidentally, the um u
number of boat arrivals, you know,
increased dramatically and um and you
know, uh Abbott ran that stop the boats
campaign, tow them back and um I think
you know all those guys, Albanese
himself, Richard Miles, Penny Wong, uh
Chris Bowen, Tanya Plebec, they were all
sitting there at the time as they got
smashed to pieces during that thing. And
I think they're so spooked by that. And
then you go further back to Tampa and
admittedly only Tanya Plebec and
Albanesei himself were in parliament at
the time.
>> But Tampa was another incident. And um
which also you know it's it's
immigration adjacent of course. It's not
uh like for like
>> but that broader immigration issue I
think just spooks Labor enormously. And
look some some of my friends in the
Labour party say oh well you know this
is a center a center center right issue.
it only sort of fragments um the
right-wing vote and that's why part part
of the reason why we're seeing the one
nation vote escalate at the moment is
because of immigration. It doesn't
impact the the the center left vote but
Albanesey's mere actions says to me they
are spooked and they're haunted by that
experience and they don't they just
don't want to go there.
>> Yeah. See the difference this time?
Well, ISIS brides have been brought back
to Australia by the Morrison government
and previously by the Albanesei
government, but quietly and without very
much fuss. The difference now is the
spotlight is right on the issue because
it kind of, you know, it fits into the
narrative around around immigration to
what extent it's going to be exploited
as an election. So, this time whatever
happens, um, we're going to know about
it. Um, we'll take a break, but I want
to pick up an issue after that that um,
an issue that um, has annoyed me through
the summer break. Back in a second. My
gripe is over the um, and and you see it
all the time, these protestations,
particularly on social media, mainly I
think from from from the right about
this belief that they're losing
elections because of the preferential
system. uh that um that somehow first
pass the post uh will be a better system
for them and they've been cheated for as
long as this exists. Um it just it it is
a classic case of be careful what you
ask for. I mean it's often quoted um
that um the Albany government would have
won 84 seats anyway at the last election
if if first pass the post had existed.
But the figures that I go to, the the
critical one is is what happened in in
in the UK where they do have first pass
the post. 650 members in the commons. Uh
Labour got 33.7% of the vote and got 411
of those 650 seats. Um but the most
stark I think demonstration of it and
and for those who are looking for a
Nigel Farage sort of party in Australia,
Nigel Farage got 14% of the vote, five
seats. The Liberal Democrats 12%
as against Nigel Farage 14 and they got
72 seats. That's what first pass the
post can throw up.
>> Yeah, I I share your um rant, Barry. um
um I can't say it occupied my Christmas
holidays like that, but um but um I I
sort of think, you know, it's just such
a silly argument because at the end of
the day, campaign directors and campaign
teams play to the rules um that are in
place. And I remember very well being in
a a large-ish meeting with Linton Crosby
after the 1998 federal election
where um Beasley won the popular vote,
but obviously um Howard won more than 75
seats and so retained government and um
you know some people from the left were
sort of saying well you know it should
be a popular vote sort of contest. um
the majority of the people wanted
Beasley and Labor and Linton sort of
said we said well the rules are you know
who wins the most seats and um and
that's how we campaigned if the if the
rules were changed to uh first pass the
post or popular vote then we would have
campaigned accordingly and changed our
entire strategy and you know it sort of
reminded me the other day of um when
Linton Crosby went to the United Kingdom
and um ran their campaign I think for
David Cameron Um he arrived there and of
course they were very old-fashioned the
Tories in the way how they campaign and
Linton is you know world class when it
comes to campaigning and um they uh
their view was all sort of 600 odd seats
are winnable they don't care how safe
labor they are you know um very Winston
Churchill you know we'll fight them
fight them on the beaches and we can win
these seats and so accordingly all their
resources would go into all these seats
including safe labor seats
And um you know, one of the one of the
biggest things in campaigns is it's it's
about resource allocation and making
sure the resources go where they need to
go, whether it be human resources,
finances, you know, communications,
messages, and so forth. And so Linton,
who's, you know, he's quite brilliant,
but um you know, diplomacy is not one of
his strong skills, um you know, sort of
just walked in and said, "No, we're not
[ __ ] doing that." You know, we're
sort of we're putting all of our money
and resources into the swing seats that
are winnable. um and we're going to win
a majority of seats, which is exactly
what they did. So, you know, when people
sort of talk about first pass the post,
you know, it's it's purely hypothetical.
It's like fantasy rugby, you know, it's
like it's not real world.
>> Well, the proposition is is so simple
really that um when you get such a
spread of choices these days and the fragmentation
fragmentation
uh that if you whoever you vote for, the
likelihood is that only a third of the
nation is going to be behind you on
that. So then you get a preference and
and if your second preference gets up,
the chances are that the majority of
Australians may not have had their first
choice, but at least they'll be
comfortable, reasonably comfortable with
the result. That's that's how it's um uh
supposed to work.
>> Yeah. And I think all all this cheer
squad for the for the right and sort of
talking about let's introduce first
place. You know, the simplest way to win
is just to make yourselves relevant to
voters. talk about issues that are
relevant to them and offer them
something an alternative on a salient
issue where they go, "Yep, you got my
vote or you've got my second
preference." I mean, that's the easiest
Click on any text or timestamp to jump to that moment in the video
Share:
Most transcripts ready in under 5 seconds
One-Click Copy125+ LanguagesSearch ContentJump to Timestamps
Paste YouTube URL
Enter any YouTube video link to get the full transcript
Transcript Extraction Form
Most transcripts ready in under 5 seconds
Get Our Chrome Extension
Get transcripts instantly without leaving YouTube. Install our Chrome extension for one-click access to any video's transcript directly on the watch page.
