0:02 [Music]
0:04 What's going on everybody? Welcome to
0:06 the Fantasy Flex podcast from the Action
0:10 Network and Fantasy Labs presented by
0:12 Yahoo Fantasy. I am your host Chris
0:15 Raybon and today we are live. We're
0:19 going to discuss some NFL season long
0:23 props. And as always, I am joined by one
0:26 of the most accurate rankers of the past
0:28 decade plus. Who better to do it with
0:31 the odds maker, Sean Turner. Sean,
0:32 what's going on?
0:34 What's up? I I feel like this concludes
0:36 our, you know, our off season. We're
0:39 We're finally giving out our props. Uh,
0:40 a lot of the props I'm giving out are
0:42 guys that, you know, we've been uh
0:44 talking about for months now. Uh,
0:46 starting to transition to week one. Uh,
0:48 but how you doing?
0:49 Oh, I'm feeling good. We got practice
0:52 squads. We got we got rosters, man. I
0:54 can really lock into these projections.
0:56 Uh, I'll have some we'll have props on
0:58 we'll have three props on the show. Uh,
1:00 I'll have some more after. So, be sure
1:02 to check for that. But we also got
1:04 another special guest with us today. The
1:08 doctor is in. Dr. Nick Gifin. Nick, glad
1:09 to have you on the show. What's going
1:10 on, brother?
1:12 Dude, just like uh Sean was saying, I
1:14 mean, we're we're transitioning to
1:17 actually giving out picks and props on
1:19 NFL regular season football. It's
1:23 exciting. Uh, also we got a uh big new
1:25 luck rankings update coming in the
1:28 coming days. So, uh, I'll be using some
1:30 of that stuff to uh, gauge some of my
1:32 props that I'm giving out here on this
1:34 show. Oh, yeah. All right, we're going
1:35 to get right into it. Uh, just a
1:37 reminder, the Ultimate 2025 fantasy
1:38 draft kit is here. If you're drafting
1:40 this weekend, Ker and I got you covered.
1:42 Rankings, tiers, cheat sheets, and more
1:45 to help you crush your fantasy leagues
1:49 in 2025. It's over at FantasyWabs NFL.
1:52 New subscribers can use code flex 20 for
1:55 $20 off at fantasylabs.comflex.
1:58 That's $20 off with code flaxx20
2:05 All right, for today's show, we're going
2:08 to have some NFL season long props and
2:10 then uh as I mentioned, we're coming at
2:12 you live. So hopefully you get the best
2:14 numbers. But the absolute
2:17 best way to get the best numbers, the
2:20 best bets all season long, you got to be
2:22 an action pro subscriber. Have your
2:24 notifications turned on. That way, as
2:27 soon as we track these props, you will
2:30 get a notification. And that will be
2:32 important tonight because after the show
2:35 today, uh we'll be dropping additional
2:38 props. At least I I'll have five more
2:40 props uh at our handles in the app. At
2:43 at my handle in the app, Chris Raybond.
2:46 Uh so be sure to check that out. Do it
2:47 about an hour after the show. So make
2:48 sure you download that app if you don't
2:52 have it already. Uh Ker Nick. We'll see
2:53 if they drop are dropping some goodness,
2:56 too. They always are. Uh two of the
3:00 highest ROI betterers that uh I've ever
3:03 witnessed. uh you know, so make sure
3:07 that you go and download the action app.
3:09 Use the link in the episode description
3:10 to download that immediately. All
3:14 right, let's get started. Sean Turner
3:16 2025 NFL. All right,
3:16 All right,
3:18 what prop you going with? Number one,
3:21 let's do it. Uh I'm going to go with our
3:25 boy Cooper Cup under 700 and a half
3:27 receiving yards. You can get that at
3:31 minus 114 over a FanDuel. But Chris, the
3:33 first question you asked me about Cooper
3:35 Cup a few months ago was how many Tide
3:38 Pods deep is Cooper Cup? And I think
3:40 your answer was indefinite, right? Like
3:42 you didn't even have a number. Uh just
3:45 too many deep. Um I agree. Uh because
3:47 you know he was starting to show some
3:49 serious signs of decline in his age 31
3:52 season last year with the Rams. Uh and
3:54 they they just moved on from him cold
3:56 turkey. they they basically cut him. Now
3:59 he's with Seattle. Um but you know, he
4:02 was bottom fifth percentile in man and
4:03 press success rate according to
4:06 reception perception. Uh just really
4:09 gruesome metrics there. Um he's really
4:10 become more of just a slot only type of
4:12 receiver and that could be an issue in
4:14 Seattle because they're going to be
4:16 running a ton of heavy personnel. Uh two
4:19 wide receiver sets. They kept four tight
4:21 ends and two fullbacks. So, I think this
4:24 is going to be a very runheavy team with
4:27 two wide receiver sets. And I think, you
4:30 know, fifth round rookie Tory Horton is
4:33 going to push Cooper Cup from the get-go
4:35 for snaps. So, you know, I don't think
4:39 Cup's going to be running 70 80% uh
4:41 snaps uh towards, you know, the end of
4:43 the season. So, I think there's some
4:45 downside there, but you know, Seattle's
4:47 going to be a very runheavy team, and I
4:48 think they're going to be really
4:50 efficient with Kenneth Kenneth Walker
4:53 and Zack Charbanet. Um, so that's going
4:54 to take away from some of the passing
4:56 offense, and this defense could be
4:59 elite, which will just even further, you
5:01 know, the runheaviness of this offense.
5:03 So, I just think there's a ton of
5:05 downside here uh with Cup in this
5:08 environment heading into his age 32
5:11 season where we're already seeing some
5:13 pretty sharp decline. So, give me Cooper
5:16 Cup under 700 and a half receiving yards.
5:18 yards.
5:21 Oh man. Yeah, Cooper Cup, Tide Pod,
5:26 Bleach, all that, he's done. Uh,
5:29 I mean I don't for for y'all out there,
5:32 I don't know if I've ever seen Kerner
5:33 have this many bullet points. I'm
5:36 looking at the show outline.
5:38 It look like the Ten Commandments. Wow.
5:39 Wow.
5:41 Our editors would disagree
5:42 with this.
5:44 I mean, hey, no, you uh you're con
5:46 you're convict that you have you're
5:48 playing this with conviction and uh I
5:51 dig it. So, uh yeah, Cooper Cup is a is
5:54 a fade for me as well. Uh, I'll go up
5:55 next and then Nick, I'll let you close
5:59 us out uh with prop number one. So, mine
6:01 is going to be Bree Hall under five and
6:04 a half rushing touchdowns. Uh, minus 150
6:07 at DraftKings. He's got a careerhigh of
6:10 five. And
6:12 he played 16 and 17 games the last two
6:16 years after an abbreviated rookie year.
6:19 Now he's looking at a situation where he
6:20 might be pressed or even surpassed for
6:24 carries by Brilen Allen behind him. Uh
6:26 we've seen Tanner Angstring kind of
6:28 play, you know, do that with DeAndre
6:30 Swift was was moving work and kind of
6:32 entered into more of a committee uh as
6:34 well. So there is precedent here and
6:37 Allen could see more goal line work.
6:40 Justin Fields as well. So, uh, you know,
6:41 this is not going to be easy for Bruce
6:44 Hall to get over his career high because
6:45 even though the Jets are going to be
6:47 what I would suspect to be a a
6:49 runheavier team this year than they were
6:51 with Rogers,
6:53 it's still going to be hard for Hall
6:55 perhaps to uh, you know, hit his same
6:58 volume numbers. Again, you expect him to
7:00 miss two to three games, not just the
7:02 the one he missed over the past two
7:04 years. And you could have two guys in
7:07 his quarterback and uh his backup or
7:09 maybe you know the guy he's you know
7:11 gets jumped uh by in Brilland Allen
7:13 seeing more goal line work. So uh fading
7:16 Bree Hall on the touchdown numbers under
7:19 five and a half rushing scores for me
7:21 for Bree
7:24 Nick Ganon. You uh you were killing it
7:27 on this pod last year. Uh had some some
7:30 really nice hits. So, uh, where you
7:32 going for 2025, prop number one?
7:36 Yeah. Well, uh, last year, you know, I I
7:39 I gave Baker most interceptions. He he
7:41 dead heated for that one. Two years ago,
7:44 I gave Tua 22 to1 most passing yards. He
7:46 w led the league there. So, I'll give my
7:48 long shot in the next pick. But for this
7:50 one, I'm actually going to go to a team
7:52 prop. It's a little scary taking an
7:54 over. Uh, but I'm going to take the
7:57 Arizona Cardinals over 400 and a half
8:00 points uh on the season. Uh, I think
8:02 there's a like a 397, but it's juiced up
8:04 a little. So, I prefer the over 400 and
8:08 a half at minus 110. Uh, but this
8:10 Arizona Cardinals offense is the same
8:12 offense as last year. I mean, literally
8:15 every starter is back. uh and they
8:18 scored 400 points last year and they
8:21 should have scored around 420 and a half
8:23 by our expected score. So there's room
8:25 for positive regression and this is our
8:27 new and improved expected scores which
8:30 is part of our luck rankings update. Uh
8:32 so you know when you've got the number
8:34 four offensive line in terms of pass
8:36 block grade, the top half offensive line
8:38 and and run block and all your key
8:41 offensive pieces Marvin Harrison Jr. all
8:43 your wide receivers, Michael Wilson, Zay
8:46 Jones, Trey McBride at tight end, James
8:48 Connor back at running back, right? Like
8:51 the whole team is intact. Uh and so when
8:53 we look at that and we already say,
8:54 okay, this team should have scored
8:57 around 420 points last year and now we
9:01 see a schedule upgrade for this offense,
9:03 I really like this over as long as Kyler
9:05 stays healthy. And the schedule upgrade,
9:07 they're facing overall easier defenses.
9:10 Last year, the defenses they faced uh
9:13 gave up a combined more than 7,000
9:15 expected points. This year, those the
9:17 the defenses they'll be facing gave up
9:20 around 6,840
9:22 uh combined points last year. Now, I you
9:24 can say, okay, well, what about those
9:25 defenses this year? Well, those defenses
9:29 this year also on average are net
9:31 negative spenders on defense, spending
9:34 around $7 million less on defense when
9:36 you look at free agency and draft
9:39 capital spend. Uh, including six games
9:42 against teams that have spent $9 million
9:45 less uh and nine games against net
9:48 negative defensive spending teams. So
9:50 again, as long as Kyler Murray stays
9:53 healthy, I strongly believe this clears.
9:54 The biggest question is does he stay
9:57 healthy? Well, he has in three of his
9:59 NFL seasons and and I know you know that
10:01 means three seasons he hasn't, but
10:03 really it was one injury from 2022 to
10:06 2023 that carried over that compromise
10:08 two seasons in one. So, I I think
10:10 there's a very good chance that Kyler
10:13 Murray plays all 17 games. And even if
10:15 he doesn't, Jacobe Brousette is
10:17 definitely an upgrade in the backup
10:19 quarterback department. But, uh
10:20 hopefully they won't need him here. So,
10:22 I'm going to go over 4 and a half total
10:25 points for the Arizona Cardinals.
10:28 Yeah, remember Ky was coming off an
10:29 injury. You know, now he's another year
10:31 removed. And he has said that he wants
10:33 to run more, which I mean, I guess could
10:35 be a double-edged sword because it
10:36 probably increases injury risk, but I
10:38 think that's when the Cardinals offense
10:40 is truly at its best. Kyra is a special
10:43 runner uh as a quarterback and has some
10:45 very, very good efficiency numbers doing
10:46 that. So, I think that'll open things
10:49 up. All right, let's go to prop number
10:52 two. Sean, I'm already jealous of yours,
10:55 so uh tell everybody about it.
10:56 Uh yeah, I'm going to go with uh
11:00 Javvante Williams under 500 and a half
11:02 rushing yards. Although, good looks Ray
11:03 Bond. It looks like, you know, Caesars
11:07 is offering 525 and a half. Uh so, you
11:09 know, better odds there,
11:11 but I mean, I don't even know if we're
11:12 going to need those 25 yards, right?
11:15 But, uh you know, he Javante should be
11:17 the Cowboys starting running back in
11:19 week one, which is why we're getting
11:20 this prop. I think they're just offering
11:22 a prop for every starting running back.
11:24 So, that's good news uh for us there.
11:26 But beyond that, I don't know if he's
11:28 going to, you know, keep this job. Even
11:30 though the depth behind him is kind of
11:33 shaky. Uh, you know, he has my Sanders
11:35 uh backing him up. I'm pretty high on,
11:38 you know, fifth round rookie Jaden Blue.
11:40 I think he could really push Javvante,
11:42 you know, as soon as week one. So, I
11:43 think he's going to have some
11:45 competition for touches. Uh but
11:48 Javvante, he really struggled in Denver
11:49 last year and that was one of the better
11:51 O lines in the league. So, you know,
11:53 going to Dallas, it's a it's a downgrade
11:55 in terms of offensive line. I think they
11:57 they're probably going to be more pass
11:58 heavy than they want this year,
12:01 especially, you know, if Micah Parsons
12:02 hold out spills into the season or they
12:05 lose him, you know, the defense uh could
12:07 allow more pass heavy game scripts. So,
12:09 just a lot to not like about Javvante.
12:11 If anything, he could be more of the
12:13 pass catching back in this back field. I
12:14 think that could end up being his sweet
12:17 spot. Um, but I think, you know, 500,
12:20 525, whatever number you can get, I
12:21 think is way too high for Javvante. His
12:24 floor is in the basement. Um, I think
12:26 there was like a handful of games last
12:28 year, right? He had like 10 plus carries
12:31 with less than 20 yards. Just extremely
12:33 inefficient. He has been inefficient
12:36 ever since his 2022 ACL tear. Um, you
12:38 know, I was pretty high on him then, but
12:39 just he hasn't been the same since. So,
12:41 I'm going to go to Javvante Williams
12:45 fade under 500 or 525 and a half rushing
12:47 yards here.
12:50 Yeah, he he started the season 8 for 23,
12:53 11 for 17, five for 12. That was his
12:55 first three games. Then he had another a
12:56 four game stretch where he went one
12:59 carry for one yard. Then he had a decent
13:01 nine for 59, but then eight for negative
13:04 -2 and four for one. All in a all in a
13:07 four game span. He had three games with
13:11 one or fewer yards on on a combined 14
13:14 carries. So, uh yeah, he's and he closed
13:17 it out with 6 for 15, four for 24, zero
13:19 for zero, five for 28. So, yeah, it's it
13:22 was all all year there was it was just
13:23 that that same kind of thing. And this
13:27 is the team that gave us
13:29 Calvin Cook last year, practice squad
13:30 callup. This is the team that gave us
13:33 Ezekiel Elliott last year. So, uh, it's
13:35 actually good that they are starting
13:37 him. That means he's going to do
13:39 terribly. All right. Uh, I'm going to go
13:42 with a guy that I actually, uh, well, I
13:45 like watching him play, but I do think
13:46 that we have to kind of temper our
13:48 expectations this year, and that's Baker
13:50 Mayfield. I'm going under 30 and a half
13:52 passing touchdowns. Uh, at FanDuel, you
13:55 could get it at minus 158. I like it at,
13:57 you know, 29, under 29 and a half as
13:59 well, if that's what your sports book is
14:01 offering. But Baker Mayfield has been
14:03 under this number every year of his
14:06 career until last year. And remember
14:08 that was with Cohen, who is now in Jacksonville.
14:09 Jacksonville.
14:12 He had a career-high 28 touchdown passes
14:14 the year before in his first year with
14:18 Tampa Bay. But he played 17 games. And
14:20 that could be a more realistic outcome
14:24 for him. Uh given that Chris Godwin not
14:27 fully healthy, Mike Evans on the wrong
14:30 side at 30. love Ibuka, but you're also
14:32 talking about McMillan, a guy who scored
14:34 a ton of touchdowns last year. Uh, you
14:35 know, he's gonna miss it looks like half
14:37 the season. And Liam Cole just schemed
14:40 up. I I I thought a lot of of of plays
14:41 that resulted in touchdowns, like an
14:44 inordinate amount, I would say. So, and
14:46 that's all, you know, without just
14:48 factoring in that Mayfield could miss a
14:50 game or two. Quarterbacks generally miss
14:52 about one game, but Mayfield's been
14:54 playing, uh, you know, pretty
14:55 consistently over these last two years.
14:57 So, I just don't think this is another
14:58 one of those years where he hits career
15:01 highs. I I don't think he's a great in a
15:03 great spot in fantasy in no man's land
15:06 there as a QB7 either. So, uh fading
15:08 Mayfield and his passing touchdowns
15:11 going under 30 and a half at FanDuel. Uh
15:13 remember his career high is 28 outside
15:15 of last year. So, I don't mind under 29
15:18 and a half or even uh 28 and a half if
15:21 uh if it's if it's a little bit juice uh
15:24 to the plus side. So, fading bayen
15:26 Baker. Nick, you're up. Where you going?
15:28 Well, I I love that you're on that uh
15:30 Baker fade, right? Cuz I was I was on
15:32 his interceptions last year, and
15:34 honestly, I kind of like his uh league
15:36 leading interceptions again this year.
15:38 You know, you said he quarterbacks miss
15:40 about one game, but Baker's uh not
15:41 really an injury-prone quarterback. So,
15:44 I'm going to a different not super
15:47 injuryp-prone quarterback. Uh and Sean
15:49 might disagree with this a little bit,
15:51 but I think I can get him there. Uh, and
15:53 that's Sam Darnold to lead the league in
15:55 interceptions at 10 to one. So, I'm
15:57 gonna address the passing volume first,
15:59 uh, because I know Sean talked about
16:00 this being a runheavy offense, and they
16:05 will be, but, uh, Minnesota last year
16:08 was by far the number one team in terms
16:11 of plays with the lead and by far the
16:14 number one team in terms of fewest plays
16:17 while trailing. uh in if you go from
16:19 weeks 1 to 17, right? Leaving out week
16:23 18, Minnesota uh led in all 16 of those
16:25 games that they played uh you know, they
16:26 they didn't play on their by-week, but
16:30 uh so I think Seattle is going to be
16:32 trailing more than Minnesota did. Now,
16:33 they're still going to be a good team, a
16:35 playoff contending team. I don't
16:37 necessarily think they'll be a team
16:39 that's like clinched everything by week
16:42 17. So, I think Sam Darnold may have to
16:44 play all 17 games this year, just like
16:46 part of my reason for taking Baker last
16:48 year. Had to play all 17 games because
16:50 they weren't going to be a team that was
16:52 going to be like super eliminated early
16:56 or or you know, 14-0 through 14 weeks,
16:58 something like that. So, I think this is
16:59 a spot where you're getting Darnold
17:02 playing the whole season. And now, let's
17:04 talk about those pass run splits. Well,
17:06 the Saints, which of course is that
17:08 Clint Kubak offense, they actually
17:09 passed at a higher rate when trailing
17:13 than Minnesota did uh for, you know,
17:15 last year where Sam Darnold was. So
17:18 potentially, if M if the, you know, if
17:20 Sam Darnold's offense is trailing more
17:22 than last year, he could still be
17:25 throwing near as much. Uh maybe not
17:27 quite as much, but potentially near as
17:30 much. So, and also the Saints played a
17:33 lot faster when trailing than Minnesota
17:34 did last year. So again, potential
17:37 volume increase just from pace as well.
17:39 So, uh, I think the passing volume could
17:41 still be relatively close for Sam
17:42 Darnold. Now, let's talk about the
17:46 interceptions. Well, he had 24 turnover
17:48 worthy plays last year. That tied for
17:50 the most with Baker Mayfield and Kirk
17:53 Cousins, but he was the only one of that
17:56 trio to have 12 interceptions while the
17:58 other two had 16. So Sam Darnold was
18:01 actually very lucky in terms of
18:04 interception rate versus expected when
18:05 it comes to things like turnover worthy
18:08 plays or bad balls thrown. Uh and he
18:10 likely also gets an offensive line
18:12 downgrade. Minnesota was 16th in pass
18:14 blocking last year. Seattle was 25th,
18:17 although they do add first round left
18:20 guard Grace Zable. So remains to be seen
18:22 how much that helps, but the rest of the
18:24 offensive line there for Seattle uh was
18:26 definitely worse than Minnesota. So, it
18:27 could be a little more pressure on Sam
18:30 Darnold as well this year.
18:33 Yeah, Sam Darnold behind a shaky O line.
18:35 Uh, that's all you had to say. I mean,
18:36 you sold me.
18:38 All right. Uh, let's take a quick break
18:41 from the seasonlong props and do a
18:44 segment presented by Yahoo Fantasy that
18:47 we are calling what makes you number
18:49 one. And Sean Kerner, we're just going
18:52 to get a piece of advice from you here.
18:53 This is a question I know you get all
18:56 the time, so we might as well tackle it.
19:00 What fantasy draft slot do you prefer in 2025?
19:02 2025?
19:04 Yeah. So, first I think you can win from
19:06 any draft slot and a lot of times I like
19:08 being in the middle because you
19:10 consistently have 12 picks from your
19:11 pick and the next one. So, you don't
19:14 have to reach as much. But this year, I
19:15 kind of like the end of the draft. So,
19:18 like picks 8 through 12. Um it's a lot
19:20 of the receivers you and I are both high
19:22 on like you know Brian Thomas Jr. Puka
19:25 Nakua Aman Raw. Uh so you can get one of
19:26 those guys or even two of them you know
19:29 if they fall to you in round two or you
19:31 know pair them with a Derrick Henry
19:33 Ashen Genty type. Uh and then in round
19:35 three I love having George KD fall to
19:37 me. So usually my favorite draft happens
19:40 to be sort of in that 8 to 12 range but
19:43 again I think you can win from any slot.
19:44 Um so it's it's just a matter of
19:48 preference but I prefer the N this year.
19:50 There you have it. That is our what
19:53 makes you number one segment presented
19:54 by Yahoo Fantasy. And as a reminder,
19:57 this episode of the Fantasy Flex podcast
19:59 is presented by Yahoo Fantasy. And the
20:03 NFL season is just around the corner.
20:05 Fantasy football is taking over.
20:07 Everybody's researching, drafting,
20:09 putting together their squads. And if
20:12 you have not joined a league yet, now is
20:15 the time. It's all happening over on
20:18 Yahoo Fantasy. That's where Sean and I
20:20 are playing this year and you should
20:24 too. So whether you're a first timer or
20:27 a veteran making your oneth league, it's
20:29 time to tap in. The season starts
20:32 September 4th. So now is a great time to
20:35 start playing Yahoo Fantasy Football and
20:37 they offer a lot of fun ways to compete.
20:38 If you want more ways to play, you could
20:40 try the new Yahoo Fantasy Giga team
20:43 leagues mode where the lowest scoring
20:45 team each week gets chopped. If you want
20:47 to play instantly with friends, you
20:49 could try the new draft with friends
20:52 mode. If you prefer the classics, then
20:53 you can get your crew together and go
20:56 head-to-head in a private league. And if
20:57 you're looking for a new crew to join,
21:00 try a public league, the easiest way to
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21:04 possible with Yahoo Fantasy. Get started
21:17 All right, Ker, prop number three. And
21:19 uh you're starting to make a little name
21:20 for yourself in the game here with these
21:22 with these sack props. I know during the
21:24 regular season, uh you tend to you have
21:26 your sack model and
21:28 you tend to crush these. So, uh looks
21:32 like you got a sack uh seasonl long prop
21:32 for us. Yeah.
21:33 Yeah.
21:35 Yeah. So last year I gave out uh Aiden
21:37 Hutchinson to lead the league in sacks.
21:39 Um I think it was 14 to1 and you know
21:41 after a couple few games he was the
21:44 clear favorite. Uh but he broke his leg.
21:47 So uh I'm going to go with the guy that
21:48 you know I'm going to attack in that way
21:51 this year and it's Jared Verse of the
21:54 Rams. So over looks like his prop went
21:58 up to 8.25 at FanDuel. Um he's seven and
22:00 a half sacks at Caesars. I like them
22:02 both. Uh, I think he's getting more than
22:04 eight and a half sacks this year. And
22:06 you could take him to lead the league in
22:09 sacks at 17 to1 over at DraftKings. Love
22:12 that one as well. But, you know, versus
22:14 coming off an incredible rookie season,
22:16 at least in terms of generating
22:19 pressure, uh, you know, he had 76
22:21 pressures last year, which was the
22:24 fourth highest in the league. Um, second
22:27 most by any rookie since 2018. Uh Nick
22:30 Bosa had the most with 81 in his rookie
22:32 season back in 2019. Uh however, Verse
22:35 was just extremely unlucky in terms of
22:37 converting those pressures to sacks. He
22:40 only had four and a half sacks. Uh he's
22:42 the only person in the top five in
22:44 pressure that didn't have at least 12
22:46 sacks. That's sort of the company he was
22:49 in last year. Um and you know, based on
22:51 my expected sacks model, he should have
22:53 had closer to 10 and a half. Uh and that
22:55 was just as a rookie. So, I think we're
22:58 getting a ton of value here. Uh, with
22:59 any sack prop, you know, under eight and
23:03 a half here. Um, and, you know, this is
23:06 another one where I think at 17 to1, he
23:07 offers so much upside in this market.
23:09 I'm taking that as well to lead the
23:11 league in sacks. I think he's due for a
23:13 ton of positive aggression and sacks.
23:15 And who knows, he could be better in
23:17 year two and even lead the league in
23:18 pressure rates. So, I think it's going
23:20 to all come together for verse here in
23:22 year two.
23:25 Yeah. just hopefully for for Nick's sake
23:27 he lays off uh Sam Darnold a little bit
23:28 so Darnold can throw some throw some
23:31 picks but uh outside of that yeah I
23:32 think you know Verse Verse was
23:34 impressive last year and I I agree I
23:36 think you have to look at that that
23:37 pressure rate that's going to be more predictive
23:38 predictive
23:42 uh going forward so love it all right
23:44 I'm going to go with
23:47 another fade of a running back Devon
23:50 Achan under seven and a half rushing
23:53 scores uh you get that minus 45 at bet 365.
23:55 365.
23:57 And Agent had six last season. He played
24:01 uh uh pretty much the entire year. But
24:03 uh this year it's possible that he loses
24:06 his goal line role to Ali Gordon. We
24:08 heard Tyreek kind of call out that you
24:11 know Han has been struggling down by the
24:14 goal line. And in the past we have seen
24:16 Mike McDaniel go with other guys near
24:19 the goal line. Remember Moert uh was was
24:21 big on the goal line a couple years ago.
24:22 But uh he kind of he was washed last
24:26 year. So uh still I also don't like this
24:28 preseason calf injury. I I know Han is
24:30 going to be ready to go and he has to be
24:32 for this prop to have action. But uh I
24:33 think it could linger and it could
24:36 always kind of get reagravated and I'm
24:38 just not loving this this offensive
24:40 line. You lost your best lineman and
24:43 Terron Armstead and uh I just think this
24:44 this Dolphin team is probably going to
24:48 be in more negative game scripts than uh
24:51 the market is expecting. So, I I do
24:53 think HN can still put together, if
24:55 healthy, a pretty good fantasy season,
24:57 but I think some of those touchdowns may
24:59 end up coming in the passing game. We
25:00 saw that last year, and now you have no
25:02 John Smith, although we do have Greg
25:04 Dosich now uh in Miami, so maybe he
25:06 maybe he's just the vulture of of all
25:08 touchdowns. But either way, I think
25:10 seven and a half uh one of the higher
25:13 touchdown props among running backs. I
25:14 just do not think that should be the
25:19 case for Devon Champ.
25:21 All right. Uh, that's going to do it.
25:24 So, we had, uh, just to recap,
25:27 Colonel went Cooper Cup under 700 and a
25:30 half receiving yards, and then he went
25:32 with Devonte Williams under 500 and a
25:35 half rushing yards, and closed it out
25:38 with Jared Verse over 7.75
25:41 sacks, likes eight and a quarter over as
25:45 well. Uh, the doctor Nick Gifin gave us
25:51 Cardinals over 400 and a half points and
25:53 Sammy Darnold most interceptions at 10
25:57 to one. And I'm rolling with Bree Hall
26:00 under five and a half rushing scores.
26:02 Baker Mayfield under 30 and a half
26:05 passing scores like 29 and a half as
26:08 well. And finally, Achan under seven and
26:11 a half rushing uh touchdowns. Before we
26:13 get out of here, just wanted to let
26:14 everybody know we have a few more of
26:16 these seasonl long props. We're going to
26:19 put in the Action Network app about
26:21 about an hour, maybe a little more, give
26:24 or take. So, if you don't have the app,
26:25 if you don't have notifications turned
26:28 on, make sure you go and download that
26:32 uh and you can follow uh all of us and
26:35 you will profit. That's what that's what
26:37 happens. That's that's what we do here.
26:38 So, if you're not an ActionPro
26:41 subscriber, go to actionetwork.com/pro.
26:43 Uh, you can get $20 off the annual price
26:47 with the promo code pod20. That's pod20.
26:50 And that's actionwork.com/pro
26:53 with promo code POD20
26:57 to get $20 off one year of Action Pro.
26:59 So, yeah, we're dropping additional
27:02 props. I'll have I'll have a bunch uh in
27:05 the Action app. So again, download the
27:07 app, turn on the notifications, and you
27:10 will get the notification when any of us
27:14 uh that you follow post. Uh I am at
27:17 Chris Raybon. Kerners at the_odsmaker,
27:20 Nick is at Rotodo. Uh you can find us at
27:22 X on those same handles as the free
27:26 award-winning action network app. Happy 2025
27:28 2025
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