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Industry Experts Release Their FAVORITE NFL Player Prop Futures! | The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips | YouTubeToText
YouTube Transcript: Industry Experts Release Their FAVORITE NFL Player Prop Futures!
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Video Transcript
[Music]
What's going on everybody? Welcome to
the Fantasy Flex podcast from the Action
Network and Fantasy Labs presented by
Yahoo Fantasy. I am your host Chris
Raybon and today we are live. We're
going to discuss some NFL season long
props. And as always, I am joined by one
of the most accurate rankers of the past
decade plus. Who better to do it with
the odds maker, Sean Turner. Sean,
what's going on?
What's up? I I feel like this concludes
our, you know, our off season. We're
We're finally giving out our props. Uh,
a lot of the props I'm giving out are
guys that, you know, we've been uh
talking about for months now. Uh,
starting to transition to week one. Uh,
but how you doing?
Oh, I'm feeling good. We got practice
squads. We got we got rosters, man. I
can really lock into these projections.
Uh, I'll have some we'll have props on
we'll have three props on the show. Uh,
I'll have some more after. So, be sure
to check for that. But we also got
another special guest with us today. The
doctor is in. Dr. Nick Gifin. Nick, glad
to have you on the show. What's going
on, brother?
Dude, just like uh Sean was saying, I
mean, we're we're transitioning to
actually giving out picks and props on
NFL regular season football. It's
exciting. Uh, also we got a uh big new
luck rankings update coming in the
coming days. So, uh, I'll be using some
of that stuff to uh, gauge some of my
props that I'm giving out here on this
show. Oh, yeah. All right, we're going
to get right into it. Uh, just a
reminder, the Ultimate 2025 fantasy
draft kit is here. If you're drafting
this weekend, Ker and I got you covered.
Rankings, tiers, cheat sheets, and more
to help you crush your fantasy leagues
in 2025. It's over at FantasyWabs NFL.
New subscribers can use code flex 20 for
$20 off at fantasylabs.comflex.
That's $20 off with code flaxx20
All right, for today's show, we're going
to have some NFL season long props and
then uh as I mentioned, we're coming at
you live. So hopefully you get the best
numbers. But the absolute
best way to get the best numbers, the
best bets all season long, you got to be
an action pro subscriber. Have your
notifications turned on. That way, as
soon as we track these props, you will
get a notification. And that will be
important tonight because after the show
today, uh we'll be dropping additional
props. At least I I'll have five more
props uh at our handles in the app. At
at my handle in the app, Chris Raybond.
Uh so be sure to check that out. Do it
about an hour after the show. So make
sure you download that app if you don't
have it already. Uh Ker Nick. We'll see
if they drop are dropping some goodness,
too. They always are. Uh two of the
highest ROI betterers that uh I've ever
witnessed. uh you know, so make sure
that you go and download the action app.
Use the link in the episode description
to download that immediately. All
right, let's get started. Sean Turner
2025 NFL. All right,
All right,
what prop you going with? Number one,
let's do it. Uh I'm going to go with our
boy Cooper Cup under 700 and a half
receiving yards. You can get that at
minus 114 over a FanDuel. But Chris, the
first question you asked me about Cooper
Cup a few months ago was how many Tide
Pods deep is Cooper Cup? And I think
your answer was indefinite, right? Like
you didn't even have a number. Uh just
too many deep. Um I agree. Uh because
you know he was starting to show some
serious signs of decline in his age 31
season last year with the Rams. Uh and
they they just moved on from him cold
turkey. they they basically cut him. Now
he's with Seattle. Um but you know, he
was bottom fifth percentile in man and
press success rate according to
reception perception. Uh just really
gruesome metrics there. Um he's really
become more of just a slot only type of
receiver and that could be an issue in
Seattle because they're going to be
running a ton of heavy personnel. Uh two
wide receiver sets. They kept four tight
ends and two fullbacks. So, I think this
is going to be a very runheavy team with
two wide receiver sets. And I think, you
know, fifth round rookie Tory Horton is
going to push Cooper Cup from the get-go
for snaps. So, you know, I don't think
Cup's going to be running 70 80% uh
snaps uh towards, you know, the end of
the season. So, I think there's some
downside there, but you know, Seattle's
going to be a very runheavy team, and I
think they're going to be really
efficient with Kenneth Kenneth Walker
and Zack Charbanet. Um, so that's going
to take away from some of the passing
offense, and this defense could be
elite, which will just even further, you
know, the runheaviness of this offense.
So, I just think there's a ton of
downside here uh with Cup in this
environment heading into his age 32
season where we're already seeing some
pretty sharp decline. So, give me Cooper
Cup under 700 and a half receiving yards.
yards.
Oh man. Yeah, Cooper Cup, Tide Pod,
Bleach, all that, he's done. Uh,
I mean I don't for for y'all out there,
I don't know if I've ever seen Kerner
have this many bullet points. I'm
looking at the show outline.
It look like the Ten Commandments. Wow.
Wow.
Our editors would disagree
with this.
I mean, hey, no, you uh you're con
you're convict that you have you're
playing this with conviction and uh I
dig it. So, uh yeah, Cooper Cup is a is
a fade for me as well. Uh, I'll go up
next and then Nick, I'll let you close
us out uh with prop number one. So, mine
is going to be Bree Hall under five and
a half rushing touchdowns. Uh, minus 150
at DraftKings. He's got a careerhigh of
five. And
he played 16 and 17 games the last two
years after an abbreviated rookie year.
Now he's looking at a situation where he
might be pressed or even surpassed for
carries by Brilen Allen behind him. Uh
we've seen Tanner Angstring kind of
play, you know, do that with DeAndre
Swift was was moving work and kind of
entered into more of a committee uh as
well. So there is precedent here and
Allen could see more goal line work.
Justin Fields as well. So, uh, you know,
this is not going to be easy for Bruce
Hall to get over his career high because
even though the Jets are going to be
what I would suspect to be a a
runheavier team this year than they were
with Rogers,
it's still going to be hard for Hall
perhaps to uh, you know, hit his same
volume numbers. Again, you expect him to
miss two to three games, not just the
the one he missed over the past two
years. And you could have two guys in
his quarterback and uh his backup or
maybe you know the guy he's you know
gets jumped uh by in Brilland Allen
seeing more goal line work. So uh fading
Bree Hall on the touchdown numbers under
five and a half rushing scores for me
for Bree
Nick Ganon. You uh you were killing it
on this pod last year. Uh had some some
really nice hits. So, uh, where you
going for 2025, prop number one?
Yeah. Well, uh, last year, you know, I I
I gave Baker most interceptions. He he
dead heated for that one. Two years ago,
I gave Tua 22 to1 most passing yards. He
w led the league there. So, I'll give my
long shot in the next pick. But for this
one, I'm actually going to go to a team
prop. It's a little scary taking an
over. Uh, but I'm going to take the
Arizona Cardinals over 400 and a half
points uh on the season. Uh, I think
there's a like a 397, but it's juiced up
a little. So, I prefer the over 400 and
a half at minus 110. Uh, but this
Arizona Cardinals offense is the same
offense as last year. I mean, literally
every starter is back. uh and they
scored 400 points last year and they
should have scored around 420 and a half
by our expected score. So there's room
for positive regression and this is our
new and improved expected scores which
is part of our luck rankings update. Uh
so you know when you've got the number
four offensive line in terms of pass
block grade, the top half offensive line
and and run block and all your key
offensive pieces Marvin Harrison Jr. all
your wide receivers, Michael Wilson, Zay
Jones, Trey McBride at tight end, James
Connor back at running back, right? Like
the whole team is intact. Uh and so when
we look at that and we already say,
okay, this team should have scored
around 420 points last year and now we
see a schedule upgrade for this offense,
I really like this over as long as Kyler
stays healthy. And the schedule upgrade,
they're facing overall easier defenses.
Last year, the defenses they faced uh
gave up a combined more than 7,000
expected points. This year, those the
the defenses they'll be facing gave up
around 6,840
uh combined points last year. Now, I you
can say, okay, well, what about those
defenses this year? Well, those defenses
this year also on average are net
negative spenders on defense, spending
around $7 million less on defense when
you look at free agency and draft
capital spend. Uh, including six games
against teams that have spent $9 million
less uh and nine games against net
negative defensive spending teams. So
again, as long as Kyler Murray stays
healthy, I strongly believe this clears.
The biggest question is does he stay
healthy? Well, he has in three of his
NFL seasons and and I know you know that
means three seasons he hasn't, but
really it was one injury from 2022 to
2023 that carried over that compromise
two seasons in one. So, I I think
there's a very good chance that Kyler
Murray plays all 17 games. And even if
he doesn't, Jacobe Brousette is
definitely an upgrade in the backup
quarterback department. But, uh
hopefully they won't need him here. So,
I'm going to go over 4 and a half total
points for the Arizona Cardinals.
Yeah, remember Ky was coming off an
injury. You know, now he's another year
removed. And he has said that he wants
to run more, which I mean, I guess could
be a double-edged sword because it
probably increases injury risk, but I
think that's when the Cardinals offense
is truly at its best. Kyra is a special
runner uh as a quarterback and has some
very, very good efficiency numbers doing
that. So, I think that'll open things
up. All right, let's go to prop number
two. Sean, I'm already jealous of yours,
so uh tell everybody about it.
Uh yeah, I'm going to go with uh
Javvante Williams under 500 and a half
rushing yards. Although, good looks Ray
Bond. It looks like, you know, Caesars
is offering 525 and a half. Uh so, you
know, better odds there,
but I mean, I don't even know if we're
going to need those 25 yards, right?
But, uh you know, he Javante should be
the Cowboys starting running back in
week one, which is why we're getting
this prop. I think they're just offering
a prop for every starting running back.
So, that's good news uh for us there.
But beyond that, I don't know if he's
going to, you know, keep this job. Even
though the depth behind him is kind of
shaky. Uh, you know, he has my Sanders
uh backing him up. I'm pretty high on,
you know, fifth round rookie Jaden Blue.
I think he could really push Javvante,
you know, as soon as week one. So, I
think he's going to have some
competition for touches. Uh but
Javvante, he really struggled in Denver
last year and that was one of the better
O lines in the league. So, you know,
going to Dallas, it's a it's a downgrade
in terms of offensive line. I think they
they're probably going to be more pass
heavy than they want this year,
especially, you know, if Micah Parsons
hold out spills into the season or they
lose him, you know, the defense uh could
allow more pass heavy game scripts. So,
just a lot to not like about Javvante.
If anything, he could be more of the
pass catching back in this back field. I
think that could end up being his sweet
spot. Um, but I think, you know, 500,
525, whatever number you can get, I
think is way too high for Javvante. His
floor is in the basement. Um, I think
there was like a handful of games last
year, right? He had like 10 plus carries
with less than 20 yards. Just extremely
inefficient. He has been inefficient
ever since his 2022 ACL tear. Um, you
know, I was pretty high on him then, but
just he hasn't been the same since. So,
I'm going to go to Javvante Williams
fade under 500 or 525 and a half rushing
yards here.
Yeah, he he started the season 8 for 23,
11 for 17, five for 12. That was his
first three games. Then he had another a
four game stretch where he went one
carry for one yard. Then he had a decent
nine for 59, but then eight for negative
-2 and four for one. All in a all in a
four game span. He had three games with
one or fewer yards on on a combined 14
carries. So, uh yeah, he's and he closed
it out with 6 for 15, four for 24, zero
for zero, five for 28. So, yeah, it's it
was all all year there was it was just
that that same kind of thing. And this
is the team that gave us
Calvin Cook last year, practice squad
callup. This is the team that gave us
Ezekiel Elliott last year. So, uh, it's
actually good that they are starting
him. That means he's going to do
terribly. All right. Uh, I'm going to go
with a guy that I actually, uh, well, I
like watching him play, but I do think
that we have to kind of temper our
expectations this year, and that's Baker
Mayfield. I'm going under 30 and a half
passing touchdowns. Uh, at FanDuel, you
could get it at minus 158. I like it at,
you know, 29, under 29 and a half as
well, if that's what your sports book is
offering. But Baker Mayfield has been
under this number every year of his
career until last year. And remember
that was with Cohen, who is now in Jacksonville.
Jacksonville.
He had a career-high 28 touchdown passes
the year before in his first year with
Tampa Bay. But he played 17 games. And
that could be a more realistic outcome
for him. Uh given that Chris Godwin not
fully healthy, Mike Evans on the wrong
side at 30. love Ibuka, but you're also
talking about McMillan, a guy who scored
a ton of touchdowns last year. Uh, you
know, he's gonna miss it looks like half
the season. And Liam Cole just schemed
up. I I I thought a lot of of of plays
that resulted in touchdowns, like an
inordinate amount, I would say. So, and
that's all, you know, without just
factoring in that Mayfield could miss a
game or two. Quarterbacks generally miss
about one game, but Mayfield's been
playing, uh, you know, pretty
consistently over these last two years.
So, I just don't think this is another
one of those years where he hits career
highs. I I don't think he's a great in a
great spot in fantasy in no man's land
there as a QB7 either. So, uh fading
Mayfield and his passing touchdowns
going under 30 and a half at FanDuel. Uh
remember his career high is 28 outside
of last year. So, I don't mind under 29
and a half or even uh 28 and a half if
uh if it's if it's a little bit juice uh
to the plus side. So, fading bayen
Baker. Nick, you're up. Where you going?
Well, I I love that you're on that uh
Baker fade, right? Cuz I was I was on
his interceptions last year, and
honestly, I kind of like his uh league
leading interceptions again this year.
You know, you said he quarterbacks miss
about one game, but Baker's uh not
really an injury-prone quarterback. So,
I'm going to a different not super
injuryp-prone quarterback. Uh and Sean
might disagree with this a little bit,
but I think I can get him there. Uh, and
that's Sam Darnold to lead the league in
interceptions at 10 to one. So, I'm
gonna address the passing volume first,
uh, because I know Sean talked about
this being a runheavy offense, and they
will be, but, uh, Minnesota last year
was by far the number one team in terms
of plays with the lead and by far the
number one team in terms of fewest plays
while trailing. uh in if you go from
weeks 1 to 17, right? Leaving out week
18, Minnesota uh led in all 16 of those
games that they played uh you know, they
they didn't play on their by-week, but
uh so I think Seattle is going to be
trailing more than Minnesota did. Now,
they're still going to be a good team, a
playoff contending team. I don't
necessarily think they'll be a team
that's like clinched everything by week
17. So, I think Sam Darnold may have to
play all 17 games this year, just like
part of my reason for taking Baker last
year. Had to play all 17 games because
they weren't going to be a team that was
going to be like super eliminated early
or or you know, 14-0 through 14 weeks,
something like that. So, I think this is
a spot where you're getting Darnold
playing the whole season. And now, let's
talk about those pass run splits. Well,
the Saints, which of course is that
Clint Kubak offense, they actually
passed at a higher rate when trailing
than Minnesota did uh for, you know,
last year where Sam Darnold was. So
potentially, if M if the, you know, if
Sam Darnold's offense is trailing more
than last year, he could still be
throwing near as much. Uh maybe not
quite as much, but potentially near as
much. So, and also the Saints played a
lot faster when trailing than Minnesota
did last year. So again, potential
volume increase just from pace as well.
So, uh, I think the passing volume could
still be relatively close for Sam
Darnold. Now, let's talk about the
interceptions. Well, he had 24 turnover
worthy plays last year. That tied for
the most with Baker Mayfield and Kirk
Cousins, but he was the only one of that
trio to have 12 interceptions while the
other two had 16. So Sam Darnold was
actually very lucky in terms of
interception rate versus expected when
it comes to things like turnover worthy
plays or bad balls thrown. Uh and he
likely also gets an offensive line
downgrade. Minnesota was 16th in pass
blocking last year. Seattle was 25th,
although they do add first round left
guard Grace Zable. So remains to be seen
how much that helps, but the rest of the
offensive line there for Seattle uh was
definitely worse than Minnesota. So, it
could be a little more pressure on Sam
Darnold as well this year.
Yeah, Sam Darnold behind a shaky O line.
Uh, that's all you had to say. I mean,
you sold me.
All right. Uh, let's take a quick break
from the seasonlong props and do a
segment presented by Yahoo Fantasy that
we are calling what makes you number
one. And Sean Kerner, we're just going
to get a piece of advice from you here.
This is a question I know you get all
the time, so we might as well tackle it.
What fantasy draft slot do you prefer in 2025?
2025?
Yeah. So, first I think you can win from
any draft slot and a lot of times I like
being in the middle because you
consistently have 12 picks from your
pick and the next one. So, you don't
have to reach as much. But this year, I
kind of like the end of the draft. So,
like picks 8 through 12. Um it's a lot
of the receivers you and I are both high
on like you know Brian Thomas Jr. Puka
Nakua Aman Raw. Uh so you can get one of
those guys or even two of them you know
if they fall to you in round two or you
know pair them with a Derrick Henry
Ashen Genty type. Uh and then in round
three I love having George KD fall to
me. So usually my favorite draft happens
to be sort of in that 8 to 12 range but
again I think you can win from any slot.
Um so it's it's just a matter of
preference but I prefer the N this year.
There you have it. That is our what
makes you number one segment presented
by Yahoo Fantasy. And as a reminder,
this episode of the Fantasy Flex podcast
is presented by Yahoo Fantasy. And the
NFL season is just around the corner.
Fantasy football is taking over.
Everybody's researching, drafting,
putting together their squads. And if
you have not joined a league yet, now is
the time. It's all happening over on
Yahoo Fantasy. That's where Sean and I
are playing this year and you should
too. So whether you're a first timer or
a veteran making your oneth league, it's
time to tap in. The season starts
September 4th. So now is a great time to
start playing Yahoo Fantasy Football and
they offer a lot of fun ways to compete.
If you want more ways to play, you could
try the new Yahoo Fantasy Giga team
leagues mode where the lowest scoring
team each week gets chopped. If you want
to play instantly with friends, you
could try the new draft with friends
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you can get your crew together and go
head-to-head in a private league. And if
you're looking for a new crew to join,
try a public league, the easiest way to
play, and make new friends. It's all
possible with Yahoo Fantasy. Get started
All right, Ker, prop number three. And
uh you're starting to make a little name
for yourself in the game here with these
with these sack props. I know during the
regular season, uh you tend to you have
your sack model and
you tend to crush these. So, uh looks
like you got a sack uh seasonl long prop
for us. Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah. So last year I gave out uh Aiden
Hutchinson to lead the league in sacks.
Um I think it was 14 to1 and you know
after a couple few games he was the
clear favorite. Uh but he broke his leg.
So uh I'm going to go with the guy that
you know I'm going to attack in that way
this year and it's Jared Verse of the
Rams. So over looks like his prop went
up to 8.25 at FanDuel. Um he's seven and
a half sacks at Caesars. I like them
both. Uh, I think he's getting more than
eight and a half sacks this year. And
you could take him to lead the league in
sacks at 17 to1 over at DraftKings. Love
that one as well. But, you know, versus
coming off an incredible rookie season,
at least in terms of generating
pressure, uh, you know, he had 76
pressures last year, which was the
fourth highest in the league. Um, second
most by any rookie since 2018. Uh Nick
Bosa had the most with 81 in his rookie
season back in 2019. Uh however, Verse
was just extremely unlucky in terms of
converting those pressures to sacks. He
only had four and a half sacks. Uh he's
the only person in the top five in
pressure that didn't have at least 12
sacks. That's sort of the company he was
in last year. Um and you know, based on
my expected sacks model, he should have
had closer to 10 and a half. Uh and that
was just as a rookie. So, I think we're
getting a ton of value here. Uh, with
any sack prop, you know, under eight and
a half here. Um, and, you know, this is
another one where I think at 17 to1, he
offers so much upside in this market.
I'm taking that as well to lead the
league in sacks. I think he's due for a
ton of positive aggression and sacks.
And who knows, he could be better in
year two and even lead the league in
pressure rates. So, I think it's going
to all come together for verse here in
year two.
Yeah. just hopefully for for Nick's sake
he lays off uh Sam Darnold a little bit
so Darnold can throw some throw some
picks but uh outside of that yeah I
think you know Verse Verse was
impressive last year and I I agree I
think you have to look at that that
pressure rate that's going to be more predictive
predictive
uh going forward so love it all right
I'm going to go with
another fade of a running back Devon
Achan under seven and a half rushing
scores uh you get that minus 45 at bet 365.
365.
And Agent had six last season. He played
uh uh pretty much the entire year. But
uh this year it's possible that he loses
his goal line role to Ali Gordon. We
heard Tyreek kind of call out that you
know Han has been struggling down by the
goal line. And in the past we have seen
Mike McDaniel go with other guys near
the goal line. Remember Moert uh was was
big on the goal line a couple years ago.
But uh he kind of he was washed last
year. So uh still I also don't like this
preseason calf injury. I I know Han is
going to be ready to go and he has to be
for this prop to have action. But uh I
think it could linger and it could
always kind of get reagravated and I'm
just not loving this this offensive
line. You lost your best lineman and
Terron Armstead and uh I just think this
this Dolphin team is probably going to
be in more negative game scripts than uh
the market is expecting. So, I I do
think HN can still put together, if
healthy, a pretty good fantasy season,
but I think some of those touchdowns may
end up coming in the passing game. We
saw that last year, and now you have no
John Smith, although we do have Greg
Dosich now uh in Miami, so maybe he
maybe he's just the vulture of of all
touchdowns. But either way, I think
seven and a half uh one of the higher
touchdown props among running backs. I
just do not think that should be the
case for Devon Champ.
All right. Uh, that's going to do it.
So, we had, uh, just to recap,
Colonel went Cooper Cup under 700 and a
half receiving yards, and then he went
with Devonte Williams under 500 and a
half rushing yards, and closed it out
with Jared Verse over 7.75
sacks, likes eight and a quarter over as
well. Uh, the doctor Nick Gifin gave us
Cardinals over 400 and a half points and
Sammy Darnold most interceptions at 10
to one. And I'm rolling with Bree Hall
under five and a half rushing scores.
Baker Mayfield under 30 and a half
passing scores like 29 and a half as
well. And finally, Achan under seven and
a half rushing uh touchdowns. Before we
get out of here, just wanted to let
everybody know we have a few more of
these seasonl long props. We're going to
put in the Action Network app about
about an hour, maybe a little more, give
or take. So, if you don't have the app,
if you don't have notifications turned
on, make sure you go and download that
uh and you can follow uh all of us and
you will profit. That's what that's what
happens. That's that's what we do here.
So, if you're not an ActionPro
subscriber, go to actionetwork.com/pro.
Uh, you can get $20 off the annual price
with the promo code pod20. That's pod20.
And that's actionwork.com/pro
with promo code POD20
to get $20 off one year of Action Pro.
So, yeah, we're dropping additional
props. I'll have I'll have a bunch uh in
the Action app. So again, download the
app, turn on the notifications, and you
will get the notification when any of us
uh that you follow post. Uh I am at
Chris Raybon. Kerners at the_odsmaker,
Nick is at Rotodo. Uh you can find us at
X on those same handles as the free
award-winning action network app. Happy 2025
2025
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