possible. Step number one, challenge the constraints.
constraints.
To introduce the second step, I want to
share something that probably won't
surprise you.
One of the most impactful periods during
our simulation is actually after the
experience is over when people and teams
reflect on what went right and what went wrong.
wrong.
We do this often in life and we call
this exercise a postmortem because we
wait until the event has concluded.
Here's what our time with leaders around
the world has taught us. Take this
postmortem approach and flip it around.
Embrace a premortem. Consider what
failure would look like before you ever
go down a path.
It's human nature to strategize a an
approach and then formulate all of the
ways that you will be successful.
Don't get me wrong, it is great to
envision your success. And you really
should only pursue decisions that you
believe will have a positive outcome.
However, I've watched professionals
strategize grandiose plans of the many
ways they will triumph in our
simulation. But many times, all of that
energy comes at the expense of spending
any time brainstorming how they might
fail and the many ways they might fail.
So now, let me tell you a story about
snakes, the British government, and a
striking example of where a premortem
could have averted a decision-making disaster.
disaster.
During the era of colonialization in
India, the British government was
concerned about the number of venomous
cobra snakes in Delhi.
After countless failed ideas, the
government decided to offer a cash
bounty for every dead cobra.
Initially, this was an extremely
successful approach as a number of
snakes were killed for this new reward.
Here's the problem. Imaginative
individuals started to breed cobras
explicitly for the income they could now generate.
generate.
It didn't take long. The government
became aware of this and they quickly
scrapped the reward program for dead cobras.
cobras.
However, this led the cobra breeders to
set their now worthless snakes free. The
wild cobra population became even worse
than it was initially.
The apparent solution for the problem
made the situation even worse.
This is now unsurprisingly referred to
as the cobra effect. It is also a
perfect illustration of the power of a premortem.
premortem.
Before we decide, we choose most often
to imagine what success will look like.
And then, for some reason, we wait until
the experience is over and go over with
a fine tooth comb and conduct a forensic postmortem.
postmortem.
Invest the time up front contemplating
how an idea you are considering could
end in failure. Step number two, embrace
a premortem.
To introduce the third step, I want to
share a story from 1999 about a NASA
mission to study the climate of the
planet Mars.
After almost 10 months of travel and a
build cost of over $125 million,
the Mars Climate Orbiter spacecraft
burned and broke into pieces due to a
navigational mistake.
The fascinating thing about this failure
was that it was entirely preventable.
There were multiple teams working on the project.
project.
One of the teams used the metric system
in their calculation.
Another team provided crucial data using
inches, feet, and pounds.
Some of the smartest people on the
planet, legitimate rocket scientists,
forgot to check that both teams were
using the same unit of measurement and
Thus far, I've stood on this stage and
I've told you that your first step
should be to challenge the constraints
to allow you to think big. Then I told
you that most of us are predisposed to
contemplate success and instead you need
to balance that and contemplate failure.
Those first two steps allow you the
capacity to think outside that
proverbial box we hear so much about.
But the third step is vital and it's
often overlooked.
Never forget to check the basics.
I have watched senior leaders of Fortune
500 companies concoct truly impressive
strategic plans in our simulation with
multiple levels of complexity in an
effort to win the game. But many times
they let small details prove to be their downfall.
downfall.
During one of our simulations,
completely unbeknownst to the
participants at the onset of the game,
over the course of the experience, we're
going to challenge them with unforeseen
external events. These events range from
unexpected product recalls to social
media PR disasters all the way to
natural disasters like hurricanes that
put their virtual employees at risk.
Many times though, it is actually the
more simple tasks of bringing a product
to market that trip a team up.
The steps required to bring a product to
market actually don't change throughout
the course of our game and they're
pretty basic.
But once we introduce intense adverse
events and the clock continues to tick
down, teams then struggle to complete
those basic tasks. Step number three,
before you decide, check the basics.
Never let the minute details be the
downfall of the decision on your doorstep.
We started with $5 at Stanford. And then
we talked about cobra snakes in India.
And then we talked about spacecrafts
destined for Mars.
Three stories that highlight three steps
to effective decisionmaking.
I want to finish with a story about
January 15th, 2009
when an aircraft with 150 people on
board took off from New York City
destined for Charlotte, North Carolina.
3 minutes after takeoff, an ordinary
flight became anything but.
The pilot would later remark that he
heard terrible noises the likes of which
he had never heard before and it felt as
if the bottom had fallen out of his world.
world.
What changed? The plane had struck a
flock of Canadian geese causing both
engines to shut down.
It was at that point that Sully
Sullenberger took control from his
co-pilot and radioed a mayday call.
I don't know if I can highlight any
example of challenging the constraints
more than the following exchange between
Sullenberger and air traffic control.
He had previously considered returning
to LaGuardia Airport. Then he considered
nearby Teterboro Airport in New Jersey
before receiving the following message.
Quote, "Which runway would you like?"
Captain Sullenberger's response, "We're
going to be in the Hudson."
the response from air traffic control.
I'm sorry. Say again.
After the event, Sully would say that
given the fact that they were in New
York City, one of the most densely
populated places on the planet, it was
actually the Hudson River, although an
extreme option, that represented the
best chance for a safe outcome. So, he
challenged the constraints and readied
for a water landing.
At that point, his premortem began. He
actually believed that he could land his
plane intact in the river. But what he
did next was contemplate how long his
aircraft would float. And given that it
was January, he considered the
feasibility of a water rescue given the
freezing temperatures.
After walking through different
scenarios of success and contemplating
different scenarios of failure, he moved
forward on his decision-making path.
As the aircraft approached the river, he
had his co-pilot shout out air speed and
altitude to confirm the critical basic
details that ended up leading to all 150
people on board surviving.
After the landing and during the water
rescue, there was actually one final
check to be done. Captain Sullenberger
walked the length of the flooded
aircraft twice to ensure that no
passengers remained on board before he
Each day we are presented with thousands
of decisions. It is my greatest hope
that you never face anything as perilous
as what Sully faced that cold January day.
day.
But no matter the gravity of the
decision you face, before you decide,
first challenge the constraints to allow
you to think big and think different.
Next, embrace a premortem to mitigate
for potential mistakes and better
formulate the correct course of action.
And conclude by checking the basics to
ensure that small details don't prevent
you from accomplishing amazing things.
Thank you all so much for your time. [Music]
[Music] [Applause]
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