This content argues that accumulator (acca) betting, typically a losing proposition due to bookmaker margins, can become a profitable strategy by focusing on "plus EV" (positive expected value) bets and adhering to specific rules, rather than blindly combining odds.
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This accumulator betting strategy
actually works and I'm going to prove it
to you. I've been betting professionally
for over 15 years. So, in this video,
I'll break everything down so that
anyone can understand clearly. You'll
see it for yourself because I'll walk
you through two real examples that
anyone can understand. And trust me, the
second one might shock you. Although,
there is one warning here. This video
may get a little bit nerdy in places. If
you use this betting strategy
consistently, the bookmakers notice and
that's when the account restrictions and
bans come in. Honestly, it's the best
proof that it works as you'll see in
just a moment. So, let's begin with a
little context to make this simple for
everyone to understand. Generally
speaking, accumulator bets in football
are usually a horrific proposition. And
here's why. Every leg that you add into
an aka multiplies the bookmakaker's
margin against you. Now, one bet, that's
usually bad enough. However, stacking
three or four or even five on top of
each other compounds their advantage
until it's practically impossible to win
over the longer term. This is exactly
why betting brands like Bet365, William
Hill, and Uni Bet love them. They
promote them everywhere because like the
lottery, most punters think of them as a
shot at fast, life-changing money, when
in reality, it's the bookies stacking
the profits at pace. the maths makes it
so. Now, the strategy that we're about
to break down here turns that logic on
its head with a few simple rules.
There's no way the bookies can stop it.
But first, an example to make my point.
By the way, if you want to see more
videos exposing bookies tricks, do me a
favor and smash the like button. It
tells me to make more of these. Okay, so
let's put this into practice with a real
football accumulator example. For the
first example, I've randomly picked a
simple three-legg football aka on the
EFL via beta's sports book. For those
unaware, that's the bookmaker side of
their website. Here are the legs. Wolves
to win at 2.8, Lincoln to win at 12.0,
and Reading to win at 5.0. So on Bair
Sportsbook, that three-fold returns £1,680
£1,680
from a£10 stake, which looks decent,
right? Well, presuming your account's
not restricted to 85 p like mine.
Anyway, you'll see why that is in just a
moment, but let's stop for a second and
break it down further. Every price hides
a probability. For example, decimal odds
of 2.8 imply a 35.7%
chance. Odds of 12.0 imply 8.3% chance
and odds of 5.0 imply a 20% chance. So,
overall, the odds of Bet Fair's
Sportsbook are saying that this
accumulator holds a 0.6% 6% chance of
actually happening. Now, in plain
English, that means they're saying that
this bet should land roughly 1 in 167
times. So, now let's talk about the real
chance of this treble actually coming
in. Because this is where things get
interesting. For those who aren't
familiar, Bet Fair also has a betting
exchange where customers can simply bet
against each other at fair market value.
Now, on Betar's exchange, those same
bets are priced slightly higher. Wolves
are at 3.25, Lincoln are at 17.5 and
Reading at 5.7. When you crunch the
numbers, the implied probability is only
0.3% for the total accumulator. So the
free market is basically saying this bet
is likely to land once every 324
times. So what's happening here? The bet
itself doesn't change, but the way it's
priced completely changes its value. On
the sports book, you're getting almost
half the payout compared to the
exchange, even though the risk is
exactly the same. And that right there
is the hidden tax on accumulators via
sports books. A10 stake landed at
exchange prices would return £3,242
instead of £1,680.
That's £1,562
more on the exact same bet just by
choosing where you place it. Now, I
should also add that 1,500 quid is the
sportsbook's real value margin. Crazy.
But there's another problem, and here it
is. Even though the exchange prices are
better, when we crunch the probabilities
together, the expected value of this
accumulator is still negative. Why?
Because around more popular leagues and
events, the exchange odds are extremely
accurate. Bookies have all the data,
staff, models, and algorithms. It's rare
to find consistent mistakes in those
odds that last very long. Plus, we
haven't factored in the 2 to 5%
commission that's deducted from a
winning bet on bet fair's exchange. So,
although this example is close to the
bets in pride probability, it's still a
losing strategy. And that is exactly my
point. This shows why most accumulators
fail. The maths simply isn't in your
favor unless the odds are mispriced. And
I know what you're thinking. How do you
actually spot those mispriced odds?
Well, hold that thought because answer
ties directly into the strategy rules
that I'm about to show you and we'll
come to that in a moment. Now, to win
long-term, the odds must be in our
favor. No ifs or buts. But don't lose
hope because I'm now going to outline
some simple rules and share an example
that shows you how to flip the entire
situation around. This is where the
strategy gets powerful.
All right, so if a usually horrific for
punters, how can there possibly be a
strategy that actually works? Now, if
you haven't realized yet, accumulators
themselves aren't the problem here. The
real problem is the bad odds on the
accumulator. If you stack good odds, the
aka suddenly becomes profitable and your
advantage is multiplied. This is what
professionals called plus EV betting.
Now, don't let that jargon put you off.
It just means positive expected value.
In plain English, it means that the odds
you're betting at are bigger than the
true chance of it actually happening.
That's all. If a coin flip is truly
50/50, but someone offers you odds of
6040, you take that bet every single
time because long-term you'll win. So,
the takeaway here is that finding
mispriced odds is the game. Every
professional gambler knows it. Now,
here's how we apply this accumulator
betting strategy. Instead of blindly
throwing in teams for a longot payout,
we stick to four basic rules. I'll put
these on the screen as a checklist. Rule
one, only combine plus EV singles. If a
price isn't good value on its own, it's
dead weight in your accumulator and
doesn't belong there. Rule two, keep it
to two, three, or maybe four legs
maximum. Anything more and the variance
just goes through the roof and you'll
need to place thousands of bets to get a
winner. Rule three, ladder singles where
you can. That means placing each leg
individually so even if one part goes
wrong, you don't lose everything. It
just makes sense. Now, obviously, these
rules only matter if you're picking bets
with value in the first place. And
that's the golden question. Where do you
actually find value? I'll give you a
clue in a minute. But first, only use
boosts from the book makers when they
actually flip an aer into positive
value. Bookies hand these out to
encourage you to bet more. But if you're
smart, you can use them to tip the odds
in your favor. Now, follow these simple
rules and an accumulator stops being a
mug's bet. In fact, it becomes quite the
opposite. And to show you exactly how it
works in practice, let's go on to
another example. One where the odds are
significantly in our favor. All right.
Now, for this second accumulator
example, I'm showing you an example with
Bet 365's prices. I'll explain how you
can get value prices like this and why
it works as we go. Because there's a few
subtle but important things that are
going on here which will probably be
missed by the broader audience. Now if
we create a three-leg aka with the
following legs Medina 17 to 10 which is
2.0 in decimal odds indicating a
probability of 37%. The draw on the
Monza match at 13 to 5 which is 3.60 in
decimal odds indicating a probability of 27.8%.
27.8%.
Suditrol at 13 to8 which is 2.625
in decimal odds indicating a probability
of 38.1%.
Now, on bet365 sports book, a £100 stake
would return around £2,551
for this bet. But here's the key. This
means that the accumulator's expected
probability is 3.9%. But let's check
that on the free market. Bet Fair's
exchange at kickoff. The same three
singles there are priced at Medina 2.66,
Monza draw at 3.1, Acitrol at 2.5. This
means that the best gauge of true value
at the most accurate time, kickoff, puts
the accumulator's combined probability
at 4.9%.
So, the accumulator on Bet 365 is not
just a punt. It's mathematically in our
favor. Now, if we multiply the exchange
prices together, the ladded return is £2,61.50,
almost £490
less than the same multiple on Bet365
Sportsbook. That additional £490 payout
is our profit margin. But why these
selections? And why is this accumulator
example overpriced? These are the most
important questions. And the answer is
simple. But before I explain, if you're
finding this valuable, please stop just
to drop a like on this video so others
benefit too. Now, the bets on that final
accumulator there are on Siri B, a lower
quality league with significantly lower
betting volumes and less public
information. That's accurate at least.
And also the prices were earlier in the
morning. So in layman's terms, they were
some of the most vulnerable betting
prices at their weakest point when
Bet365 had them incorrectly priced. It's
the total opposite of the first example,
if you remember, where three EFL matches
were at kickoff. And that's why this
accumulator betting strategy works. Some
actors will lose, yes, and others will
win. But across enough bets, if you're
always taking odds are bigger than the
bet's true chance or using a boost to
tip them into that sector, then you come
out ahead. The edge belongs to you, not
the bookmaker. Now, spotting these value
bets is the tricky part. And I've got a
full video coming on exactly how to do
that. So, make sure you hit subscribe
and you don't miss it. In the meantime,
check out this video here on my under
over betting strategy in the past. I'll
walk you through the exact process in
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