Hang tight while we fetch the video data and transcripts. This only takes a moment.
Connecting to YouTube player…
Fetching transcript data…
We’ll display the transcript, summary, and all view options as soon as everything loads.
Next steps
Loading transcript tools…
How to be a Profitable Trader on Prediction Markets | Taiki Maeda | YouTubeToText
YouTube Transcript: How to be a Profitable Trader on Prediction Markets
Skip watching entire videos - get the full transcript, search for keywords, and copy with one click.
Share:
Video Transcript
Video Summary
Summary
Core Theme
This content details a successful strategy for profiting on prediction markets by identifying and betting on "rigged" markets with predetermined outcomes, alongside exploring future opportunities and the social dynamics within these platforms.
Mind Map
Click to expand
Click to explore the full interactive mind map • Zoom, pan, and navigate
What's up everyone? Oracle Tiki here
with my crystal ball and today I want to
tell you how I made $13,500
on Poly Market in just a couple of days.
So I made 13.5K using two markets. So
let's talk about them both. The first
market was this bullish ETH BTC event.
So a few months ago, ETH BTC, so the
price ratio between Ethereum to Bitcoin
uh was roughly around 0.02. And I think
you know a few months ago, I mean people
were super bearish ETH. Um, and on this
platform called Limitless, the
probability of ETPC hitting between 0.04
and 005 was roughly around 1.9 cents or
1.9%. I thought that was way too
underpriced, uh, way too cheap. So, I
ended up buying 5,400 shares or
contracts using like $100, $12 or so.
Um, so now that I won this bet because
each BTC is at 0.041, um, I won $5,400.
So, that's a 54x on the money. Um, and
best of all, uh, Limitless has a points
program going on. So, they raised a
couple million dollars from reputable
VCs, and right now there's a season one
going on where if you use the platform,
you get points. This points program for
season 1 ends September 22nd. So, you
still have a couple weeks to do it to do
this. Um, I think it's a good
opportunity because I mean, not there's
like no one I know that I'm like that's
like farming this. Uh, the liquidity is
like, you know, really bad honestly. Um,
and but like the minimum bet size uh to
hit or to be eligible for point for
points is $200. So it doesn't take that
much. You can just like bet 200 bucks on
something trading at like 98% or so,
right? Um, so you don't ensure or you
know you don't you don't lose money. Um,
or you can be a DJ and like bet on like
some like moonshot event like I did
here. Um, but I think you know uh it's
something worth checking out and I'll
put the link in the description to the
platform. Um, yeah, and like I said they
raised $4 million from you know some
reputable VCs. So the second interesting
market um that was like this was more of
like a quick cook right uh the EBDC bet
took like two months but this played out
in a couple of days. So last week I made
this video um around you like my big
bets I'm making on poly market um and I
highlighted this market uh where you
know will Mr. Beast raise $40 million
for clean water by August 31st. At the
time of recording uh these odds were
roughly at 61%. Um and you know they I
think they were short by roughly like
six or seven million with a few days
remaining. I thought this market was
mispriced because I mean typically if
you study Mr. Beast's like previous
campaigns, the majority of the money is
raised at like the last couple of days.
Um, you know, because Mr. Beast is in
the game of creating good content and
it's it's it's not fun, right? Um, if he
raises $40 million in the first like two
days or so, right? It's more fun when
he's like, "Oh, it's like down to the
wire. Like, can't the community do it?"
And then he then he can make another
video of like, "Oh my god, we did it,
guys. With with 12 hours remaining, we
did it." Right? Uh, so you know, Mr.
beast. He's in the game of creating
content. He's not going to do this
charity challenge. If he knows he can't
raise like all this money, um I thought
it was a rigged market uh where the
outcome was predetermined, right, to be
at 100%, but the market was pricing at
60%. Um and you know, like after I made
the video, right, more donations came
in, the shares, you know, pumped like
95% or so. Um but, you know, they were
still short of the money. So, the day
before uh this challenge was fulfilled,
uh there was there was a tiny dip here,
right? A small dip. And I took this
opportunity was like, "Hey, like, you
know, I mean, it's kind of like like
crypto prices, right? It's like some
whenever something pumps hard, right?
Uh, you know, people take profits and we
do see a dip. Um, and I was buying that
dip and you know, like obviously, um, he
did a live stream, he raised $20
million. Um, he like, you know, post
some videos. He gets a lot of
engagement. So, you know, good business
decision by him. Um, so I actually aped
a lot. Um, so I think I was like top 10
holder of Yes shares even though I got
in like fairly late. Um, so I bought
31,500 shares at 82 cents. So I I spent
$25.7K buying these shares. Um, and now
of course, you know, I held them till
expir um because I just believed that he
would do it. Um, so that was a profit of $5,727
$5,727
or so. Um, you know, also there was
another wallet I bought this at. Um, I
spent $3,500 buying this at 63.6. Um, so
I made roughly $2,000 or so. And then in
another wallet I spent like my cost here
was like not that great. Um, but I mean
I I I I mean they were selling a dollar
bills for like $80, right? So I just
like took the free money. Um, so I made
$480 here. Um, so you know in under a
week, I mean literally in under a week I
made $80, $200ish betting on this
particular market. Um, and on on on
prediction markets, there's often these
moments where there's like free money on
the floor. Um, and there's a lot of
unsophisticated capital taking the other
side. So you know, you just like have to
take those spots, right? Um, so yeah,
I'm like I'm up 13.5K this week on
prediction markets. Uh, so I mean I
would take that as a win, right? And if
there is like an aird drop in the future
for limitless or even poly market, uh,
then you know I'm printing future EV,
right? Future expected value. Um, and
because I do feel kind of weird, right?
It's like other people are donating
money to this good cause and I'm here
profiting money from like, you know,
this Mr. Beast market. Uh, so I I felt
like weird about that. Um, so and I did
promise that, you know, once I make
money on this market, I'm going to
donate some money. Um, so I donated
$800, which like roughly like 10% of
these profits to team water. Um,
allegedly, you know, um, every dollar,
uh, you know, is like a year of like
water to, um, you know, people in need.
Um, I'm not even sure if that makes
sense, but hey, you know, I mean, thank
you, Mr. Beast, for the profits. So,
hey, like, I'll share some of the love.
Um, yeah, there you go. So, um I yeah I
think you know as I'm formulating thesis
on how to bet on prediction markets um
you know you kind of have to like ask
yourself these simple questions right
like do do you really think um that Mr.
beast would create like this type of
challenge like no like without like
knowing that he's going to fulfill it,
you know. Um he has infinite levers to
pull and poly market traders were
selling dollar bills for 60 to 80 cents.
Um and I kind of view this as a rigged
market. Um and how how how do I define a
rigged market? Um I think a rigged
market is markets/events. So I mean
events that are on poly market that have
a predetermined outcome. You know u like
we all would have like we all should
have known that Mr. Beast was going to
raise money. Um I'm not sure how he did
it, right? Um I'm sure maybe he can sell
like ad slots for his, you know, YouTube
videos for like some like product like
whatever, right? Um and because of what
whatever reason, the traders on Poly
Market, they don't really view it as a
rigged market. Um they more so view it
as can this like random dude raise $40
million and then they're like, yeah,
there's no way he can do it. Um not
knowing the fact that this market was
already rigged. Um, so the the past few
trades that I've done um that I've made
like a lot of money on um is just like
me betting on the rigged outcome and
just wait for the markets to repric. And
you know I I also did this with another
market. Uh I made this video last week
talking about like my big poly market
that um and this is like a really weird
market, right? Like can Lord Miles, some
random British guy, complete a 40-day
water fast in the desert? And I
basically said that like this market is
rigged. Um we all we already know the
outcome. Uh Lord Miles has complete
control over the situation. Um so I'm
just gonna like buy yes and like wait
for me to profit. Um so you know I
bought these shares at roughly 54 cents
on this wallet. Like my average is like
roughly 52 cents because I use other
wallets uh because I'm like farming like
volume and stuff. Um right now it's at
tra trading at 74%. Um so that seems
like a pretty good bet. Um, I'm not sure
if I'll wait until like the 40-day
period. Uh, because, you know, I don't
want like a weird situation to like, you
know, like some some guy like visits him
and like, you know, force feeds him or
anything, right? Um, so maybe I'll start
taking some profits in the 70 to 80%
range. Maybe maybe above 80% because,
you know, there's still like like 33%
upside left in this market. Um, so I
don't want to like be futed out and like
sell, but also, right, I do need to
manage risk. I am like a top holder for
this market as well. Um, so that's
something I'm considering. Um but hey,
you know, like this was also a rigged
market, right? Um so I think my strategy
in the future uh is of course I mean
I'll I'll make other bets, you know, um
but I think betting on rigged markets is
fairly easy um if you're comfortable
with the risks, right? Um especially if
you think you know uh like the
predetermined outcome in these rigged
markets. But anyways, that's going to be
it for me um for like that section. But
I I do want to pivot because I I think
the most interesting and like fun part
of playing market is the comment
section. Um, it's basically, you know,
people that hold yes shares, no shares,
and people don't that don't even have
skin in the game just arguing against
one another. Um, and you know, the Lord
Miles comment section like is is
hilarious. U, but the Team Water, I
mean, maybe this is true for all
markets, but the Team Water comment
section, right? Um, it it was like just
ridiculous, right? Because there were so
many people that held no shares for
whatever reason. Um, and they're in
they're just like crashing out publicly.
Um, and you know, like Walrus Lagon or
this guy, he's like, "Hey, yeah, like
these guys are selling dollar bills for
95 cents." And then Guacamole.nz is
like, "Eat a bag of dicks." You know,
like it it basically just like this. Um,
but let's talk about like, you know, the
the second funniest thing. So, they're
like these two people. Um, and typically
I don't like to like gloat people's like
losses and whatnot. Um, but also, right,
I just think it's kind of ridiculous
because um, and I'll I'll talk about
like, you know, um, yeah. Yeah. Any
anyways, uh so like one of the main like
bold thesis or like yeah like one of the
main like thesis for like no holders was
that you know I mean August 31st was a
Sunday, right? Um and August 30th was a
Saturday. Uh so there's a lot of people
in the comment section saying that like
they're like buying all these no shares
because banks are closed, right? Um and
you can't donate money when the banks
are closed. Like like like these people
cannot be serious, right? Um, I thought
this was a copy pasta, but like no, like
these people actually believed uh in
like this thesis like banks are not open
today, so let me buy no shares at like
20 cent. Like like what what what even
is that, right? Um, so Jaden, yeah, just
so Jaden Animations, I looked at this
guy's profile. Um, and you know, his his
description is I lost 30k in 10 days on
crypto markets. His P&L is minus 20K.
Um, so like maybe he bought like some
meme coins on uh like a Solana or
something. Um and then you know after
right um after his yet no shares went to
zero um he kind of had like this uh he
he's he's claiming that he's disputing
uh the markets because you know it
jumped from like 39.9 million to 40.04
million. Um and like the last paragraph
in the rules says it has to hit 40
million. It doesn't say 40 million or
over and 40 million never hit. So you
know he thinks that issue resolve to
know. Um I mean come on, right? Like
that that that's just like come on,
right? Just use common sense here. Um
and then trade so the the trade
chemicals guy, right? Um who was like
talking about how the banks are closed
was also like oh like [ __ ] So this
was like after um all his no shares uh
went to zero. Uh it's like uh like
biggest sack of [ __ ] market. Why
couldn't he just let it run its natural
course? Let the auctions end and some
potential larger donations. Not a
desperate last hours live stream. What a
pile of steaming excrement, right? He's
he's just like angry. He's like, "Oh my
god." Uh but like guys like just don't
bet against rigged markets or you you
don't even have to bet on these rigged
markets, right? Um but hey, I mean if
there's money to be made um and if
there's I mean if you give DJs a lot of
money um permissionlessly on blockchains
then yeah they're going to bet on these
like crazy outcomes. Um so yeah, you can
also filter I'm not sure you can read
this actually. So let me kind of go
small screens. can also filter it with
like the most amount of likes. Um like
the comment section and then like the
number one liked comment was just the
thing I learned from Poly Market. I
should find a decent job instead of
trying to make money from gambling
sitting here all my time like an idiot.
Um and then like the two people that
commented are people that held no
shares. I just thought that that's kind
of funny. Um but I mean that's true,
right? Like what like what am I doing
here? Um I feel like the Mr. Beast
market was like, you know, like I mean
like fairly simple, but like me betting
on Lord Miles like Yeah. Like what am I
doing here, right? Um I I should
actually like reconsider my like um my
life priorities. Uh Ketto Quetto, he
he's like he was like the largest holder
of Yeshares. So congrats to him, right?
He made a bunch of money. Um and you
know he's working for his bags, right?
He just door dashed a Mr. Beast burger
and I even added fries and paid for
priority delivery. Um so I guess he's
trying to pump his own bags by, you
know, giving Mr. Beast some money that
way. Um and then you know also uh the
last account I want to talk about is
this this one. So, Jeffrey 1953 and his
PFP is um his profile picture is Jeffrey
Epstein and Diddy. Um so, like like I
said, I don't like to like lost gloat,
right? Um that I feel like that's kind
of like a dick move here. Um but if your
PFB is or if your name is Jeffrey
Epstein and then your PFB has Jeff
Epstein and uh Diddy, then I I I I feel
less bad, let's say. Um so, yeah, he
also lost a bunch of money here, 10K.
Um, and then you know he was like,
"Yeah, I mean I'm I'm highlighting him
because because I was like kind of
active, right? There's like this guy was
just so cocky, right? Um, every time
Yes. shares would go down like 10 cents,
like he would just be spamming like,
"Oh, like these [ __ ] idiots like you
know, uh, he would just be spamming this
thing." Um, and you know, uh, so yeah,
like these Yes holders, um, have balls
of steel. And then he he like he saw my
buy orders at like 82 cents and he's
like, "Hey, that mean you're wild, bro.
like are you are are you this guy? Like
I don't even know what he is. Um and
like this like this guy he he was buying
no shares at like 13 cents, 14 cents, 15
cents, 10 cents, 19 cent. So I mean he
was like paying a decent price, right? U
for all of these things. Um and I think
he had he he had like 80,000 noshares I
think. Um so yeah, I think he spent
$10,000 buying no shares. Um because he
he he you know his he thought the banks
were closed. Um and he's like I ain't
[ __ ] selling. Um, and then he ended
up just like selling them all at like
two cents. Uh, which I mean, you know,
at that point you probably should sell
at two cents because I mean, you know,
just get something, right? Um, instead
of like getting zeroed out. Um, but
yeah, it's, you know, it's, you know,
yeah, there's there's like other stuff
like, oh yeah, like we survived another
hour. Yeah, single digit going to be
wild. Um, good exit price. Yeah, he's
just like blown and you know, yeah, I
mean, so many comments. Um, so yeah, I I
I I just I I encourage everyone to just
go to like some random like social uh
like not like Ethereum price or
anything, right? Like just go to like
these markets around like, you know,
like Charity or like um like Mr. Beast
um or like Lord Miles, right? Um and
just like go to the comment section and
it's just it's just I mean I think it's
like a great way to I mean even here
let's let's filter by likes, right? Um I
mean yeah I I kind of share this
already. Um, but you know, my family has
become concerned about me after I told
them I have been gambling on whether a
fat fat Nazi can scam more crypto bros
with his Middle East vacation. Uh, uh,
anyways, anyways, you know, I last thing
I want to So, yeah, last thing um I want
to share is like opportunities in
prediction markets because um, I mean,
on one hand, uh, like me talking about
like my past bets like maybe it's not
that useful. U, maybe it's entertaining
um, but hey, at least I'm giving my
thought process. Um, but like what are
future opportunities, right? Um, I think
Limitless obviously is one. Um, you
know, I think it's good for these
smaller if like if you have a like a
smaller wallet. Um, I think you can like
just create a bunch of wallets like farm
limitless. Um, try not to lose money.
Um, and like collect points. Um, that
could be fruitful. Um, but let's talk
about other um, opportunities. I still
think that there's a non-zero chance
they airdrop. Um, I'm not sure what the
probabilities are. Um I also think that
there's a chance in which they can or
like like like the main argument against
poly market airdropping is that they're
going to ICO IPO. Um which I think is
fairly reasonable. Um I also think
there's a path in which they can IPO and
do a token uh where you know IPO would
like I mean yeah like they go public but
also you know one of the main arguments
uh against like using polymer market is
like the um oracle right. Um so their
poly market right now is reliant on
another oracle project uh to basically
resolve markets. Um and that's basically
been like a lot of or that's caused like
a lot of like drama and whatnot. So I
think the most rational um and cleanest
way for for them to essentially you know
just get rid of UMA is by just having a
token. Um maybe it doesn't really acrue
like value from revenues or profits like
maybe like a small percentage of fees
can go to the token. Uh but like the
main utility can be you know them having
the new poly token be like the oracle. U
of course in this scenario the poly
market token um will have a lot a lot
less value than like the poly market
equity right in the IPO. Um and I'm not
saying it's going to happen. Um but I
think people are severely you know
underestimating the real odds of a
potential airdrop. Um so if you are
interested in prediction markets like
you should just use things that could
have a token. um either you know poly
market or limitless because limitless
actually explicitly said that they're
going to do a token. Um so yeah it just
increases the EV of just being an
activator as long as you have some form
of an edge. Um and today uh Poly Market
I'm in the Discord and they kind of
announced that that you know they're
starting to you know uh build parlays.
Um so you know parlays is like in sports
betting where you kind of bet on like
five different markets and then if you
hit on all five then you get like some
insane payout. Um, of course I feel like
that's like the reasonable next step for
like prediction markets to have parlays
or like some sort of leverage or like a
social component. Um, so these things
are coming. Um, I think Kelsey's going
to have these things as well. Um, and I
think over time prediction markets are
going to get more integrated uh to
society such as sports betting. Um, if
this were to happen, of course, we
should see value acrew to the prediction
markets themselves, but also you know
value should acrue to trading
infrastructure. Um, if you're aware of
like Salana, right? Um, a lot of sol
activity is memecoins. And a lot of
people lose money, um, right, like
trading these things. Um, but the the
companies that make the most money,
right, are like literally like these
trading bots, uh, like these trading
infra, right? They pull hundreds of
million dollars of fees in 2024 and and
people like just pay a ridiculous fee to
these trading infra infrastructure
tokens or like projects because they
just like they they think they have an
edge or something, right? Um, so I do
think that there are going to be
opportunities in the liquid markets
where teams are building like trading
infra like terminals or bots. Um, so if
you have any liquid token ideas, um, I'm
happy to like just DM me, right? I'm
happy to chat. I've been looking into
them. Most of them are kind of trash,
honestly. Um I think there's this
adverse selection uh problem uh where
all the quality like teams and projects
uh building in production markets. Um
they're not going to like randomly
launch a token on Salana or base, right?
Um so any token that's live right now
tends to be on average like lower
quality. Um so yes, I I do want
prediction markets exposure in the
liquid markets, but the problem is the
good teams are not going to drop tokens
yet. Um and the bad teams will all like
launch tokens. Um, so I mean that being
said, there could still be a lot of
opportunities. So, um, I think that's
going to be like a really interesting
place to look at. Um, another point I
want to talk about is that, you know, if
I mean at some point there's going to be
a crypto bare market in my opinion. Um,
and if you're if I'm thinking about
allocating to a sector, um, that could
be that that could do well in a bull or
a bare market. Um, I think prediction
markets can be interesting as well
because, you know, whether or not like
like people betting on Mr. beast like
like like me betting on Mr. Beast,
right? Like this clean water um or like
Jeffrey Epstein like trading um from
heaven or hell. Um like like these
things like in theory these things
should be bare market resistance, right?
Uh people betting on Taylor Swift or
like you know politics or sports. Um
those people are not really going to be
uh trading less because crypto prices
are lower, right? Uh maybe you know uh
some like people right stop trading
because they like lose money or
anything. Um but in theory right um this
should be a more bare market resistant
sector than other sectors like pers or
dexes or lending or memecoin like you
know um so I do think that you know if
you believe in the future prediction
markets it does make sense for us to at
least consider allocating capital right
whether it be angel investing or like
buying coins or even like trading on
these platforms um not only to make
money from capital gains but also to
develop skills um and develop expertise.
Uh because if you think right and if you
agree with me that prediction markets
are going to 1000x from here um anyone
that has outsized knowledge in this
field is going to reap the rewards in
the future. Uh so maybe right now is the
time to understand these markets, make
money in these markets. Um you know like
humble gains here and there um but in
the future um that's when the asymmetric
payoffs will come. So that's going to be
it for me. Thank you guys watching. Hope
you guys enjoyed the video and I'll see
you guys later. Um Oracle Taki signing
Click on any text or timestamp to jump to that moment in the video
Share:
Most transcripts ready in under 5 seconds
One-Click Copy125+ LanguagesSearch ContentJump to Timestamps
Paste YouTube URL
Enter any YouTube video link to get the full transcript
Transcript Extraction Form
Most transcripts ready in under 5 seconds
Get Our Chrome Extension
Get transcripts instantly without leaving YouTube. Install our Chrome extension for one-click access to any video's transcript directly on the watch page.
