Hang tight while we fetch the video data and transcripts. This only takes a moment.
Connecting to YouTube player…
Fetching transcript data…
We’ll display the transcript, summary, and all view options as soon as everything loads.
Next steps
Loading transcript tools…
Analyzing the Winds of Winter Information Drought | Quinn The GM | YouTubeToText
YouTube Transcript: Analyzing the Winds of Winter Information Drought
Skip watching entire videos - get the full transcript, search for keywords, and copy with one click.
Share:
Video Transcript
Video Summary
Summary
Core Theme
This analysis tracks the progress and perceived status of George R.R. Martin's highly anticipated book, "The Winds of Winter," by examining various public statements, blog posts, and interviews from late 2022 to late 2025, aiming to provide a realistic perspective amidst fan speculation and misinformation.
Mind Map
Click to expand
Click to explore the full interactive mind map • Zoom, pan, and navigate
The last A Song of Ice and Fire book,
Ants with Dragons came out over 14 years
ago now. And in the time since, A Song
of Ice and Fire fans have been looking
for the winds of winter as though it
were an illusory oasis on the horizon
for every single one of us. I joined
this community back in 2016, but I only
started making videos on the subject
late in 2022 around when House of the
Dragon was airing its first season. At
that point, George R. Martin was on
something of a press tour for this new
show. He wanted to promote it and
promote his work. And in doing so, he
shared a lot of details on his active
progress with The Winds of Winter. We
heard things like it was going to be 300
pages longer than the longest volumes in
the series so far. He had,00 to,200
pages done. He was about 2third of the
way through and certain characters were
at or nearing the point of completion on
their arcs. Tyrion being the one he
continually referred to. In the time
since I have joined this community as
someone who talks about these books and
the time since House of the Dragons
first season, we have received little to
no uh information in the way of actual
updates on the writing progress of the
Winter Winter. But there have been hints
and indications in other places. And
today I'd like to go over all of those
little things we've learned in the two
years since that time or I guess three
years now. Wow, I'm getting old. Before
we jump into more recent updates, it's
worth noting that this October/ August
baseline of 2022 is not necessarily
accurate to itself, as was first pointed
out to me at least by the excellent
YouTuber Admiral Kurd in his video
discussing when the winds of winter is
coming. Specifically, Martin both says
that it is going to be 300 pages longer
than the longest books in the series,
which would make it about 1,800
manuscript pages and then also says that
he is 3/4 of the way finished with,00
to,200 pages done. That math does not
quite add up. That's closer to a 2/3
mark than it is to a 3/4 mark if we are
considering 1,800 to be the full total
of the winds of winter, which I do think
is most likely at this point. So while
that 3/4 figure is inaccurate, I am
going to assume that the 1100 to 1200 is
likely accurate given the fact that
Martin had previously talked to his
publishers in that same visit where he
talked to Colbear, so he had reason to
take inventory. I will also say near the
top here that George R. Martin is still
actively writing The Winds of Winter. A
lot of grifters and a lot of
clickbaiters tend to say, "Oh, he's
given up. There's no progress being
made. Nothing is happening. He's written
zero pages." that factually isn't true
based on what we've heard from sources
beyond George R. Martin himself and I do
think that it is worth noting that there
is evidence that he has continued to
work over these years. I don't think
there is any merit to the thought that
oh he has just given up. There are some
quotes that people take out of context
that sure can make it seem that way, but
I will address each of those in time.
But from here on in I'm going to go
through sort of a timeline starting
towards the end of 2022 when we got our
last big information roundup. Last
disclaimer being that I have been too
optimistic before I put out a video
around the airing of House of the Dragon
second season. While I was very much
looking forward to the publication of
the winter winter and thought it was
imminent due to a number of signs that I
was misreading, a lot of the things that
I had cropped up as things that could be
oh Martin hiding some signs of release
ended up being signs of a conflict
between him and the House of the Dragon
showrunners, which I will get to later
on in this video. But regardless, I'm
trying to take a measured view of this
while still maintaining just sort of a
view on the facts while not kind of
giving into either doom or hope in equal
measure. So, our first update after that
big information roundup from late 2022
comes from also late 2022. George R.
Martin tends to do year-end blog posts
and that's a lot of the way that people
tend to measure kind of goal posts for
how he is doing on the winds of winter
as he doesn't talk about it a ton a ton
on his blog regularly but it does
usually make an appearance and a
progress report in this year-end post
and this year-end post is interesting
from a tonal perspective. He does
specifically reference working on the
winds of winter, but he does reference
it again and again and says that if uh
people forgot if he forgot to mention
it, people would end up jumping down his
throat, which does make it seem as
though this kind of information overload
that has been coming out in 2022 has
sort of gotten to Martin. And while he
is still working on it, he is very much
taking kind of a a more relaxed pace at
giving people updates at this point as
he feels like he has had to do that for
all of these media appearances for House
of the Dragons season 1. So I think that
is at least part of the reason as to why
we've maybe heard less going forward.
Also at the end of 2022, we have the
first of two what I would like to call
info dump blog posts. not necessarily
about the progress of the winds of
winter, but a blog post where Martin is
directly telling us information about
his setting, about Westeros, and about
the winds of winter, and he's just kind
of adding it as context for things we
will see in the future of the series.
This one goes into Castasterly Rock, how
it actually looks, how it actually
functions, and specifically a lot of
elements of its naval defense, which at
the time led me to believe that there
would be some presence of Castro Rock in
the winter winter. Well, not just
believe that he's said that, but believe
that that presence likely comes from
Tyrion andor Victarion invading this
castle by sea and potentially claiming
it for Queen Daenerys. There is another
point that I've seen elsewhere that I
want to address as well. That being that
Martin tends to blog about his writing
if it is going well. And while that is
true to an extent, we definitely get
more posts from Martin about the winds
of winter in COVID when he is trapped in
his cabin and just writing. And
obviously when he was writing A Dance
with Dragons, he was giving incredibly
detailed progress updates down to which
characters were getting chapters, which
days, and which ones were actively
giving him trouble. I do think something
has changed since that era, though. I've
heard people say, "Oh, because Martin
isn't doing what he did with the dance
leadup, this kind of ball rolling
downhill where there is this massive
uptick in updates, that there's no
progress being made." I don't think
that's necessarily the case. You need to
think that when he was writing A Dance
with Dragons, it was a fundamentally
different situation as the show hadn't
come out yet. There weren't as many
contractual concerns going on. And I
believe that he was probably less
concerned about uh people hyper
analyzing his blog and potentially
finding out spoilers for Dance with
Dragons than he now is with The Winds of Winter.
Winter.
We now enter the wonderful year of 2023
when I graduated college. And at this
point, I've seen 2023 references a year
where not much happened on the winds of
winter for George RR Martin. And I think
a reason people think that is there
really wasn't a yearend post for 2023
where he kind of recapped what had been
going on for the year. But there are
references to writing the winds of
winter throughout his blog for that
period, specifically in reference to the
writer strike. In his first uh post
discussing the Hollywood writer strike,
he says that this is not affecting the
winds of winter because he knows people
will be upset if it potentially is. But
later on in July, the strike started in
May for reference. He says he's been
working on the winds of winter almost
every day. And it is worth noting that
while the writer strike doesn't directly
affect the winds of winter, the fact
that all of these TV and movie projects
were shut down for this time does make
me think that he is very much telling
the truth that he has been actively
working on the winds of winter uh
throughout this entire period. So I tend
to think 2023, at least the strike
period was probably better than most for
Martin in terms of winds writing. I do
want to interrupt myself to ask, what do
you think of all of these miscellaneous
updates? Have I missed anything
substantial? Let me know in the comments
and be sure to leave a like and
subscribe. It really helps the channel
and I think like over half of my viewers
aren't subscribed, so you know, just
make sure be nice. Thank you. Our last
concrete quantitative update from the
man himself came on a podcast appearance
on Bangcast at the end of 2023 where he
made reference to having,00 pages done.
This is interesting given the fact that
he did give the 1100 to,200 figure the
year prior when he was in New York with
Steven Colbear and overall I don't put
too too much stock in that figure at
that point. I tend to think that Martin
just hadn't taken count at that point.
From what we understand it doesn't seem
like he does that that often unless he
needs to present it to his publishers
which as far as we know he did not need
to do for all of 2023. So overall I
don't put a ton of stock in that one. I
believe 2024 was a worse year for
writing the winds of winter than 2023
was. And I think there is evidence to
that fact. First and foremost, we don't
get much on the book through the first
half of the year. But Martin does really
take an uptick in blogs throughout June
and July, which is part of what led to
my stareyed optimism uh in that month
that led to that video saying, "Oh,
maybe something's happening." But
regardless, two posts here stand out to
me. The first is another info dump post
and it was the second chronologically,
but it goes deep into dragons and their
bonding mechanics and how exactly they
work in the winds of winter. Unlike
Castasterly Rocks info dump blog post,
this one seems to be directly spurred by
something outside of the winds of winter
itself. specifically House of the Dragon
second season. It seems like Martin was
annoyed with some of the mechanics of
dragons therein, likely Sheepsteeler
taking residence in the veil, though he
didn't end up actually doing a full blog
post on that because of something we'll
get to in a minute here. But regardless,
I do think this was very much aimed at
House of the Dragon and shows that he is
intending to correct the record on this
information in the Winds of Winter as he
directly states that we will learn more
about dragon bonding in the winds of winter.
winter.
There was also another post in July of
2022 where he specifically outlined that
winds was not imminent, which I took as
a great sign at the time. Of course,
this is an interesting post and it can
tell us something fairly important about
the future of the winds of winter.
Specifically, many people say and
continually repeat to this day that
there's not going to be any big
announcement about the winds of winter.
Martin is going to at first announce it
on his blog and then maybe there will be
some big announcement elsewhere. This
post directly disproves that. He had in
the past said that the blog was going to
be the first place that anyone would
hear about the winds of winter. But now
in this post from July of 2024, he says,
"Oh, there will be some big announcement
whenever it is completed, but when and
where, I cannot say. This does very much
disprove the notion that this will just
be a blog thing, so it could come out at
any point at some event or something.
I'm not sure." Also in July of 2024,
which I almost forgot, the new covers
for the series, new editions were
announced. And I do tend to think this
is a better sign for The Winds of Winter
than many other things. As in the series
past, anytime there's been a new book,
there has been a new printing of all of
the previous books to match up their
covers to whatever the new design is
because they don't match. Instead of, I
think, a Game of Thrones and a Clash of
Kings, which came out only 2 years
apart. So, I don't think that these
covers necessarily mean that wins is
imminent. Obviously, it isn't because
it's now been almost a year and a half
since this blog post, but I do think
when the winds of winter is inevitably
announced, it will have a cover that
mirrors these ones. It'll be design
matching them. And I think that this is
kind of writing the ground for that
arrival. In September of 2024, we get an
update after his return from a trip in
Europe that caused his blog to stall for
a couple months. And it is one that is
fairly pessimistic and one of the bigger
arrows in that quiver. Specifically, he
gives insight into what's been going on
throughout the year up until that point
because not only did that trip to Europe
prevent him from writing for a couple
months, but the earlier part of the year
was pretty difficult in terms of
actually writing itself. He says that he
does produce pages on the Winds of
Winter and Blood and Fire, which is a
first in terms of him confirming that
pages are done there, but overall it
says that it is very hard to do it at
that time and not many pages were
produced. Not as many as he would have
liked. So I think this paints 2024 as a
year where well yes some progress was
made probably the slowest year since co
if I had to guess based on this
information. With that said I think
something happens about a week after
that blog post in September of 2024 that
prompts the trajectory of the winds of
winter and Martin's writing to change a
little bit. Martin's now famous Beware
the Butterflies blog post comes out
where he very publicly sends a shot
across the bow of not only House of the
Dragon but the showrunner thereof. It is
then deleted. I wonder why. There are a
number of reasons it could have been. I
think the most likely one is HBO saying
that it had to be pulled given the fact
that Martin made reference to events
that were to happen in season 3 that
weren't yet confirmed. He referenced
specifically Ryan Condle's notes on
things that he had planned for season 3.
And I think that was probably a nogo.
But after this point, I think there is
evidence that Martin tended to want to
focus more on the books than the HBO
adaptations going forward. He does still
speak very positively about Duncan Egg,
as he does seem to have a lot of hope
for that adaptation, as do I, but there
is a change in how he seems to think
about things. A month later, Martin
posts positively about writing a Braavos
short story after The Winds of Winter is
completed. And then early in 2025, he
says something that I view as very
informative on his progress throughout
this period of time. And I do think it
is quite contrasting to what he had said
in September prior to the Beware the
Butterflies blog post. It's not
quantitative. It's not I've written X
pages. It's how the progress is actually
going. to quote from an interview during
March of 2025, "There's always the
books." And I'm aware that people think
that, but no, I have to get back. I have
to finish the books. That's the one
thing that I'm completely in control of.
There's no budget limitations. There's
no executives on the studio side I have
to please or other writers with
different views. The books are what I'm
going to make them. And I think the one
I'm writing is coming pretty well, but I
wish it would come faster. This is a
shift from Martin's overall tone earlier
in 2024 where he was saying writing was
actively coming pretty hard. Now he is
saying it is going quite well and he is
moving along at a decent pace. And it is
worth noting there are other shifts in
the way he talks around this point as
well. Specifically, if we look back at
October of 2024, we see him talking
about uh writing more Duncan egg after
finishing the winds of winter. Oh yes,
yes, I know, I know. It's in very
uncertain terms and it seems as though
oh this is something a million years
away but then fast forward to 2025
January of 2025. So only a couple months
later he specifically says uh and once I
finish the winds of winter I'll need to
get hopping on the village hero. To me
that's a lot more certainty in a very
short amount of time. It seems as though
he is kind of reconnecting with the
books and realizing that this is kind of
the way to his legacy. This brings us to
what I believe to be the most
misunderstood thing that Martin has ever
said about the winds of winter. And it
does really kind of make me sad. Howard
meets Hercules was a post from May of
2025 where Martin ended up ranting about
uh the expectations that go along with
the winds of winter. Specifically, he
says that fans have given up on him or
the book and overall if he doesn't if he
finishes it, he won't finish the uh
dream of spring. and it's just very
pessimistic and goes through all of
these reasons people tend to doubt him
and just overall crap on any work that
isn't the winds of winter at this point.
The thing is that isn't the only
paragraph there. He isn't saying all of
this that he believes it too. He's
saying it is what he's sick of hearing
from people. He doesn't seem to believe
that at all. Specifically, he says that
he does still care about the winds of
winter and all of these other works as
well. This has been taken out of context
in so many places saying that Martin is
oh putting all of these other projects
ahead of the winds of winter. He just
has other things that he is working on
as well. It makes sense that he is going
to be doing other things. And I think
that overall it probably would be better
for the Winds of Winter if he isn't just
hitting his head against it constantly
stuck as he was in 2024 and instead
rotating between different projects that
interest him and allowing the creativity
to flow more freely, thus allowing
probably more creativity to flow in the
winds of winter. There is another update
kind of to discuss that I don't quite
believe which comes from another author.
She says that he said, which makes it
already hearsay, that Martin was about
70% through the book at this point in
lateish 2025. I think it was like August
or September when this came out. But
overall, not only is this kind of a
secondary source that I don't entirely
believe. There are elements of it that
could make it true and could make 70%
make a bit more sense given that he did
previously give the 75% figure. As I
said at the top, 75% wouldn't
necessarily be accurate to uh the work
as Martin had already outlined it. 75%
of 1800 is not 1100 or 1,200.
Specifically, Reddit user uh Cautioner's
Tale goes into this idea, which I do
quite like, that if this 70% figure is
indeed accurate, it likely reflects 70%
of the 18800 manuscript page total,
meaning that it could be over the 1500
manuscript page mark, which would be
quite remarkable because that is the
longest point for books in the series so
far. So, I would tend to think this
update is either completely incorrect or
misqued or it is some mark of progress
that might sound bad, but on reflection
might be a little bit more positive. And
that's part of what frustrates me. A lot
of what I've seen of late is just these
continuous clickbait articles saying
that either Martin has given up on the
winds of winter or that he's doing
anything but working on the winds of
winter. Martin is doing some other
things. I talked about that AI lawsuit
in a video a couple weeks ago, but that
is something that Martin is not actively
doing. He's not a lawyer. He's not doing
this. If something that he wrote is
being adapted, it's not going to be him
actually doing the adaptation. He did
the work already. He is not actively
doing all these things. He might help
supervise a project or send a couple
emails about it, but overall, he's not
actively writing or litigating these
things. And I do think that is reflected
in Martin's current uh just general
vibe. I was at New York City Comic- Con
a couple months ago, and I really
thought that he seemed quite happy,
which I thought was very good and very
good for not only the state of the winds
of winter, but him in general, because
it is important to realize that George
RR Martin is a person who needs to be
respected as an artist. My main point in
making this video is to show that The
Winds of Winter is not an algorithm.
It's not something that can just be
produced. It's not a piece of content.
It is a piece of art. There are good
times, there are bad times. Martin goes
through points where the writing is
coming easily. He goes through points
where he is actively struggling on it,
but he does continue to work. And I
think that is very important to
consider. And overall, it's just
important to keep in mind that he is a
person and one who has given us so much
at this point. And I do think it is
crucial to bear that in mind when
thinking about the winds of winter. Yes,
it has been a very long time. Yes, I
would have loved it to come out earlier.
But overall, if it is going to ensure
that there is a quality product at the
end of the road, I am going to obviously
prefer that. I think it would be useful
to at the end of this exercise go over
what I think I've gleaned from it. This
effective timeline that I have now
created based entirely on clues from the
blog and the media ecosystem. So,
getting into it, we got all of this
information towards the end of 2022.
Barton returns the end of 2022 and is
tired from all of this and tired of
being asked about wins, which very much
sets the tenor for not giving a ton of
information going forward. 2023 seems
like a pretty good year for the book as
a whole. The writer strike is happening,
meaning all of these TV projects are on
hold, so there isn't much to do other
than write, which he does almost every
day. There isn't a year-end blog post
which does cause some people to panic
along with that Bangcast interview, but
it seems likely that that estimate was
not updated from the year prior. Beyond
that, 2024, at least the earlier half
seems as though it was a bit more
difficult. The writing was coming hard
and then it was followed by this couple
monthong European vacation. But upon his
return and getting into September,
Martin seems to have picked up
motivation again, potentially spurred by
House of the Dragon and its continued
divergence from his source material.
Going into 2025, Martin has seemed in
generally high spirits, especially at
things like New York Comic-Con. So, I'm
also inclined to believe that while
writing might not be progressing as
quickly as it would have been over CO or
in 2023, the work does continue. But
yeah, that's where we stand as of
whatever today is. Uh, November 17th,
2025. This could be made irrelevant the
day after I post it. We will see. That's
the day I'm recording it. I'm not
posting it the same day. I don't have
that kind of time. Thank you all so much
for watching. If you enjoyed this video,
be sure to leave a like and subscribe.
Any support is really appreciated. I'll
have many more videos for you in the
near future on Duncan Egg, House of the
Dragon, A Song of the A Song of the Ice
and Fire, and uh, Game of Thrones, all
that stuff and more. and I hope you'll
join me for all of those. I'm very
excited about a few projects. I have a
Daenerys video I'm working on that I'm
really looking forward to and I cannot
wait to share it with you. Goodbye everyone.
Click on any text or timestamp to jump to that moment in the video
Share:
Most transcripts ready in under 5 seconds
One-Click Copy125+ LanguagesSearch ContentJump to Timestamps
Paste YouTube URL
Enter any YouTube video link to get the full transcript
Transcript Extraction Form
Most transcripts ready in under 5 seconds
Get Our Chrome Extension
Get transcripts instantly without leaving YouTube. Install our Chrome extension for one-click access to any video's transcript directly on the watch page.
