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What The Hell Happened on LIBERATION DAY?!

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The content critically analyzes President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, arguing that the policy is based on flawed economic premises, miscalculated data, and a misunderstanding of international trade, ultimately posing a significant risk to the U.S. economy and consumers.

well folks yesterday was Liberation day

and we are going to go through

everything tariff related you could

possibly imagine first your reminder we

exist to cut through the noise and bring

you the unpleasant facts that others

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fight today Okay so yesterday president

Trump declared that it was in fact

Liberation day he said this is our

economic declaration of Independence I

start with his announcement yesterday

and then I want to talk about what it is

that he actually announced because the

markets are getting rocked and there's a

reason they are getting rocked here was

President Trump yesterday in the Rose

Garden celebrating Liberation day to be

fair he had warned everybody a month in

advance that he was going to do this

sort of thing here he was my fellow

Americans This is Liberation day waiting

for a long

time April 2nd 2025 will forever never

be remembered as the day American

industry was Reborn the day America's

Destiny was reclaimed and the day that

we began to make America wealthy again

this is one of the most important days

in my opinion in American history it's

our Declaration of economic

independence sounds cool sounds cool so

how are we going to actually do that

well here's the thing the president's

vision of international trade is I am

sorry to say mistaken the president

seems to believe that international

trade is a zero sum game here was the

president explaining that actually the

United States is a victim of everyone

else when it comes to International

Trade over the past several

decades nearly a century later in the

face of unrelenting economic Warfare the

United States can no longer continue

with a policy of unilateral economic

surrender we cannot pay the deficits of

Canada Mexico and so many other

countries we used to do it we can't do

it anymore we take care of countries all

over the world we pay for their military

we pay for everything they have to pay

and then when you want to cut back a

little bit they get upset that you're

not taking care of them any longer but

we have to take care of our people and

we're going to take care of our people

first okay so he's actually making a

separate case here which is that people

should pay their own way when it comes

to their welfare and defense spending

totally agree 100% that is absolutely

true also that has literally nothing to

do with what the president of the United

States did yesterday it seems to be

predicated his giant tariff policy that

he just dropped on the market

unilaterally probably unconstitutionally

yesterday and I'll get to that in a

moment it's predicated on a few false

Notions about the American economy one

is that the American economy has been a

giant fail for the last 40 years that is

simply not true this is a myth that is

propagated by both parties and I know

it's a fun myth it's it's something

people like to believe is that yesterday

was economically better than today and

then you look at all the stuff around

you and you look at the phone in your

pocket and you look at the computer

before you you look at the internet you

look at the fact you can literally order

any product at any time from anywhere on

Earth and it arrives at your doorstep in

2 days at a price you can afford and you

think to yourself would I rather live in

1980 when the only person with a cell

phone was Gordon gecko on a beach

holding a shoe box to his head when

central air conditioning was kind of a

rarity when the cars if you were lucky

had electric windows okay was that like

better or things better just on an

economic level forget about everything

else you can make a case about the

spiritual level he can make a case about

the dissolution of the I agree with many

of those cases but we are talking here

about economics we're not talking about

the life of the spirit within we're

talking about economics which is the

distribution of goods and services so I

need to start by showing you a few

charts that show you that America in

fact does not suck and has not sucked

for several decades economically because

this is a myth that all politicians like

to tell hey number one there is this

notion that American

de-industrialization has been

happening that America's been hollowed

out by De industrialization that we are

not actually manufacturing anymore in

this country that is not true it is not

true in the mid90s the United States was

producing in real manufacturing value

added in 1997 we were producing $ 1.4

trillion in 2025 we were producing $2.4

trillion and it is an arithmetic

increase you can see the line on this

chart we are manufacturing more why

aren't there more manufacturing jobs the

answer is technology we're manufacturing

more because we have better robots and

they are doing much of the work work

that people seem to have a very warm and

fuzzy feeling about but that they would

never want to to themselves I notice a

lot of people why can't I have a factory

job just like 1955 Ford or something yes

I I'm sure that you wanted to be in a

non-air conditioned Factory riveting all

day that just sounds like you that's

most Americans that that's that's your

ideal job no it isn't it isn't just like

working in a coal mine isn't your ideal

job either hey here's another chart

we've been told the lie that the

American middle class has been hollowed

out by International trade here is what

actually happened to the American middle

class over the course of the last

several decades the American middle

class stayed approximately the same size

shrank a little bit why did it shrink

why did it shrink not because people

became lower middle class or poor but

because a huge number of Americans went

into the upper middle class the number

one change in the status of American

families in terms of income from just

before 1980 to about 2050

was a 16 percentage Point increase in

the upper middle class in other words

people got richer and by the way

everyone got richer including the poor

because the stuff you can get as a poor

person in America in 2025 is way the

hell better than the stuff that you

could get as a poor person in America in

1980 that's just a reality how about

wages we keep hearing that wages are

stagnant that they stagnated since

1979 here according to the Bureau of

Labor Statistics is a chart it shows you

the average hourly earnings of

production and non-supervisory employee

es and it shows you what happened to

wages between 1980 and 2025 what you see

is a steep increase from the 1990s and

up a very steep

increase I know this Cuts against the

conventional political wisdom which is

the American economy sucks and it's

because everybody is cheating us now one

of the things that President Trump is

predicating his terar War upon is the

idea that trade deficits are inherently

bad a trade deficit is where we import

more stuff than we export in terms of value

value

now as I've pointed out before you have

a trade deficit with literally every

business that you do business with

unless they are buying your product so I

have a trade deficit with my local

public a large trade deficit they have

bought pretty much nothing from me and

I've bought tens of thousands of dollars

over the years from my local public

clearly they are screwing me or maybe

they're not because I'm getting value

for my Dollar in the form of food and

supplies or maybe I should go over my

public and just beat the living out of

the general manager I don't know one of

those two things trade deficits are a

they're an accounting procedure trade

deficits you label something in export

and you label something in import but

trade itself is about Mutual benefit or

you wouldn't do the trade in a voluntary

system so the idea that every trade

deficit someone is getting screwed is a

zero sum view of how economies work and

it's not true as Thomas Soo points out

the eminent Economist quote if the goods

and services available to the American

people are greater as a result of

international trade than Americans are

wealthier not poorer regardless whether

there is a deficit or a surplus in the

international balance of trade in fact I

can name you a period in American

history where there was a fairly large

Surplus in America's balance of trade

the entire Great

Depression now there were times in

American history that were great where

we also had a surplus there are times in

American history that sucked where he

had a deficit and times in American

history that were great where he had a

deficit as it turns out trade deficits

have pretty much nothing to do with the

health of an economy they don't tell you very

very

much in fact the French Economist

Frederick bastiat who's really cutting

about this stuff writing in the 19th

century he said look if you're so

worried about trade imbalances then

actually what you should do is you

should sync ships filled with your own

exports before they ever get to the

other side so if we're exporting oranges

to Europe and they're going to send us

apples in return the best way to ensure

that no trade imbalance takes place is

we should send our oranges out of the

country and we should syn the ship

before it ever gets to Europe so they

can't send us apples back then we have a

large export on our Ledger and Imports

great idea the economy will be

stronger so a a fundamental

misunderstanding of trade deficits and

again that's not balance of payments

that's a different thing balance of

payments is about the flow of gold we're

no longer on a gold standard but it's

about currencies and all trade deficits

are a different thing the reason I'm

bringing up trade deficits is because

this is how president Trump is

calculating his Liberation day tariffs

according to the Washington Post

president Trump said Wednesday he will

impose a new 10% tariff on all imported

goods along with higher import taxes

tailored for each of about 60 countries

his advisers say maintain the largest

barriers against us products and a sharp

turn toward the kind of protectionism

the United States had banded nearly a century

century

ago so president Trump said that for

decades our country has been looted

pillaged and plundered by Nations near

and far both friend and foe alike this

is not going to happen

anymore okay so let's take a look at the

Liberation Day quote unquote reciprocal

tariffs okay so here I have a chart

president Trump H it up you like a big

chart like like Wheel of Fortune

something he like a big chart that

showed reciprocal tariffs and what it

said was in one column the names of the

countries in another column tariffs

charged to the United States including

currency manipulation and trade barriers

and then USA discounted reciprocal

tariffs so his idea is here is the

Tariff rate that a country is charging

us and then we're going to take half

that rate and charge it to them there is

only one pro I mean there many problems

there's only one problem here what is

labeled the tariffs charged to the

United States is not in fact the tariffs

charged to the United States it is not

true is not true CU I looked at this and

I thought holy crap the EU is charging

us 39% tariff rates on all products

we're exporting stuff there and they're

charging a 39% tariff that's what this

chart says Japan is charging us 46%

tariffs Malaysia is charging us a

Cambodia is charging us 97% tariffs and

then I thought to myself self I said

that doesn't sound correct to me that

doesn't sound right at all in fact that

that sounds totally wild I mean that's

that that can't be true and so I made

the mistake of actually looking up some

of these statistics what are the actual

average annual tariff

rides that are charged on American Goods

by countries like for example Japan or

Taiwan which this chart says is charging

us a 64% tarff rate and it turns out

there is zero correlation whatsoever

those are not in fact the tarff rates

that are being charged on American Goods

going into Taiwan or Japan or India or

any of these other places it's just not

right well listen I don't love these

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where is that number coming from and

this is where the trade deficit comes in

it's coming from taking the trade

deficit of that country and dividing it

into the Imports that the United States

is taking in from that country and then

calling that a tariff

rate okay that has nothing to do with

the Tariff rate nothing at all zero

things to do with the Tariff rate the

Reason by the way that we have a ter so

according to this chart according to

this chart for example Madagascar is

charging us 93% tariffs and we ought to

charge them 47% tariffs hey that's what

it says that's what the thing says there

is only one problem with this that is

not remotely true and if we have a trade

deficit with

Madagascar then so the hell what it's

Madagascar the GDP per capita in

Madagascar is like $530 a

year our trade deficit with Madagascar

is a few million dollars is the idea we

have to Chisel out of the people of

Madagascar extra dollars for American

products or we are getting screwed by

the great and powerful people of

Madagascar is that the idea here it

makes zero sense it literally has

nothing to do with the actual tariff

rate how do we know this we we have per

perfect proof yesterday Israel which

already had almost no tariffs on the

United States 99% of all Goods coming in

Israel had no tariff on them from the

United States that was something that

Israel did in the 2000s because they

used to have high tariffs and what ended

up happening is that Israelis would come

to the United States load up their bags

with a bunch of americanmade goods and

then take them back with them to Israel

to avoid the tariffs so Israel just got

rid of all the tariffs yesterday Israel

announced zero tariffs on any American

Goods the Trump Administration hit them

with a 17% tariff anyway claiming that

they had a 33% tariff rate on American

Goods which clearly is not true why

because it turns out that we buy more

stuff from the Israelis then the

Israelis buy from us shocker they're a

smaller country we're a giant market not

a giant shock as it turns

out so this is pretty crazy because it

turns out the trade deficit has nothing

to do with the Tariff rates so we are

punishing countries that have a low

tariff rate with us for example like

South Korea is listed on this chart as

having a 50% tariff rate on us the

average tariff rate South Korea has on

American Goods according to the World

Trade Organization is

0.79% we have a free trade agreement

with South Korea it is listed on this

chart as

50% that's nonsense it's not true it

just isn't true and it leads to a 25%

reciprocal tariff on all South Korean

Goods now there are a number of reasons

why this is a problem say okay whatever

who cares but you know you know do we

need other countries any okay so first

of all yes we do it turns out that the

supply chains all across the planet are

incredibly complex and if you like the

products that you have at the quality

that you have them and at the price that

you have them you're not going to get to

keep them you don't get to keep the

anybody who tells you that you can is is

telling you the same kind of falsehood

that Barack Obama said when he said if

you like your doctor you can keep your

doctor you don't get to keep your Xbox

at the same rate with the same quality

you don't that's just not the way that

these tariffs are going to work so what

exactly happens well Tyler Cowan points

out quoting Scott linic come over at Ko

Trump's reciprocal tariffs impose

hundreds of billions of dollars in new

taxes on Americans without public or

Congressional input because that's

actually what happens I have friends for

example who import product to the United

States and then sell them this why

because they can't get the product in

the United States so for example I have

a friend who's in the jewelry business

and this friend in the jewelry business

Imports products that are not capable of

being manufactured or found in the

United States from abroad so it's not

like there's import substitution you can

just buy from an American that's not how

it works this by the way this company is

an American

company the Tariff that is now being

applied to all of imports is like 35 40%

those prices will get passed directly on

to the

consumers it is a tax paid for by

Americans so this is a massive tax

increase on American consumers that's

what it is and it is designed to be so

and it is talked about in these terms by

the Trump Administration that this will

cost 600 700 billion dollar in

additional Revenue to the government you

know what we call Revenue to the

government typically paid for by

Americans because that's who pays for it

if you're importing a product and nobody

buys it then you stop importing the

product and nothing gets paid to the

government it has to be sold that is the

the consumer pays the tax that is what

we would call a tax increase okay these

secret calculations that are not so

secret anymore because it turns out that

actually they just have nothing to do

with with tariffs at all those

calculations are

nonsensical this idea that President

Trump is doing this based on based on

legislation that suggests that there is

a National Emergency on the basis of trade

trade

deficits no the answer is no this is in

the purview of Congress Congress there

is no National Emergency that justifies

a unilateral tax increase of the size

that the administration is attempting to

Levy down on the basis of a trade

deficit because we buy more stuff from

Madagascar than the Madagascar buy from

us that is not a good reason to declare

a National Emergency because it ain't a

National Emergency anymore than it's a

national emergency that I buy more stuff

from my public than they buy it from

me by the way this there are already

free trade commitments that are now

being breached by the Trump

Administration we have free trade

commitments with many of the countries

that we are currently slamming with

tariffs again it's going to cost

American consumers it will cost American

Producers who use inputs from other

countries and most importantly of all if

this is supposed to somehow screw for

example the Chinese precisely the

opposite is about to happen why because

many of the countries that are about to

get absolutely hammered are countries

that exist in Southeast Asia so if you

want to know what the actual tariff

rates are these various Southeast Asian

nations are charging the United States

the answer is not what president Trump

is is putting up there which again is

rooted in the the trade deficits that we

supposedly have with these various

Nations if you want to know the answer I

did so I asked my friends at perplexity

sponsors of the show what are the actual

effective tariff rates Southeast Asian

Nations have against American Goods not

the Trump statistic which is rooted in

trade deficits also please make a chart

correlating the trade deficit or Surplus

those countries have with the United

States with their GDP per capita so

according to perplexity the actual ual

effective tariff rates imposed by

Southeast Asian Nations on American

Goods very significantly across

countries the figures cited by the Trump

Administration appear to be exaggerated

in based on trade deficits rather than

real tariff structures according to the

WTO Vietnam's average most favored

nation tariff rate is approximately

99.4% now remember according to the

Trump statistic the average tariff rate

that's being charged by Vietnam the

effective tariff rate is 90% okay so 10

times what the actual tariff rate is is

what the Trump Administration is

claiming Asian Nations like indones

Indonesia Malaysia impose average mfn

rates most favored nation rates of 7.5%

and 5.6% respectively those numbers are

far lower than the inflated numbers

presented by the Trump Administration

now as to trade deficits that we have

with these various countries the answer

is because they're poor they generate

cheap product like in Vietnam your

t-shirt's probably made in Vietnam and

they have no money so we run a $95

billion trade deficit with Vietnam their

GDP per capita is $4,200

$4,200

$4,200 okay so what are we going to do

chisel that out of them precisely that

$95 billion trade deficit because we

want to buy their t-shirts same thing

with say the Philippines we have A5

billion trade deficit with the

Philippines and the GDP per capita in

the Philippines is 3,700 bucks meanwhile

Singapore right which Singapore is

getting hit with a 10% tariff by the way

for no reason because we actually have a

trade surplus with Singapore they have a

10 billion doll trade deficit with the

United States how can Singapore afford

that I mean aren't we just screwing them

must I mean obviously according to this

logic we're screwing them

if they have a trade deficit with us

must be that we're jobbing them in some

way the reason that they can have a

trade deficit with us is because wait

for it their GDP per capita is

$72,000 so again none of this is is

rooted in economic reality and and the

biggest problem is there's no way to

sort of get out of the box that's been

created by these statistics because if

you were saying lower your tariff rate

and if the Tariff rate is already zero

or close to it where do you go from there

there

so one of the things that happened

during the pandemic is knowing that the

Chinese were bad actors many producers

started shifting their supply chains out

of China and into other nearby countries

like for example Vietnam believing the

United States would punish China but not

Vietnam well now the new tariffs slam

Vietnam with a 46%

tariff so why not you shift your

production back to China more

importantly if you're the EU and you're

not getting racked by the United States

with a gigantic tariff or if you're

Canada and you're getting absolutely

ravaged by American tariff you need

markets for your goods where are you

going to go maybe to a country that is

perfectly willing to militarize

capitalism on behalf of fascism the

Chinese the Chinese are about to make

extraordinary inroads in Southeast Asia

they're about to make extraordinary

inroads in Europe and in Canada because

it turns out when America withdraws from

the world and basically declares a trade

war on literally everyone including by

the way an island with no people I'm not

even kidding this is a thing included in

the list of places that President Trump

is is going to tarff I wish I were

kidding I'm not kidding included in this

list is in fact the herd and McDonald

Islands we are hitting the herd and

McDonald islands with a 10% tariff the

herd and McDonald

Islands include zero

people includes Penguins we're hitting

the P screw them

penguins penguins stupid

Penguins Okay so

it what exactly is this designed to do

again it is predicated on a bad idea of

how International Trade works if I've

said this a thousand times this is not

coming from a place of I want Trump to

fail it's coming from a place of if he

Engineers a recession based on these

sorts of tariffs which seems

increasingly likely if you were to stick

with this if you were to do that sort of

thing all of the amazing things that

need to happen that he is pursuing and

that his administration is filled with

good people who want to do all that

stuff going by the way side a bad

economy kills everything around it it is

the neutron bomb of

politics if you drop the neutron bomb of

politics a recession into the lap of

this Administration it doesn't just

destroy this administration's economic

agenda it destroys the administration

wholesale that is what happens in

American politics recessions destroy

administrations and by the way everyone

close to them all the tech Bros get

destroyed all the business people get

destroyed it's really important not to

self- engineer a bad economy

important it's it is frustrating at the

very least because this has not been

well justified by literally anyone

including members of the Trump

Administration JP Morgan put out its

forecast quote on a static basis today's

announcement would raise just under $400

billion in revenue or about 1.3% of GDP

which would be the largest tax increase

since the Revenue Act of 1968 we

estimate that today's announced measures

could boost pce prices by 1 to 1 .5%

this year we believe the inflationary

effects would be mostly realized in the

middle quarters of the year so in other

words inflation will start ticking up

again fairly significantly the resulting

hit to purchasing power could take real

disposable personal income growth in

both the second and third quarters into

negative territory and with it the risk

that real consumer spending could also

contract in those quarters this impact

alone could take the economy per

perilously close to slipping into

recession that's before anyone else

tries to punish us for punishing

them this is before according to JP

Morgan accounting for the additional hit

to gross exports and to investment

ending headlines about retaliatory

measures by us trading partners are

already coming out we expect to learn

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and so president Trump again he was

laying these out he's very enthusiastic

about it yesterday in the Rose Garden he

tried to suggest that if tariffs are so

bad why do other people do them here he

was trying to make this

case if you look at that China first row

China 67% that's tariffs charged to the

USA including currency manipul ation and

trade barriers so 67% I think you can

for the most part see it those with good

eyes with bad eyes we didn't want to

bring it's very windy out here we didn't

want to bring out the big charts because

it had no chance of

standing fortunately we came armed with

a little smaller chart so 67% so we're

going to be charging a discounted

reciprocal Tariff of 34% I think in

other words they charge us we charge

them we charge them less so how can

anybody be upset okay so then he said if

imposing tariffs and protective barriers

actually made us poor then then why

would other countries be doing it here

here was President Trump saying

this we charge

2.8% for so many things that other

countries are charging 200% 300% then

400% for if imposing tariffs and

protective barriers made Nations poor

then every country on Earth would be

racing to eliminate these policies and

China would be the first online they run

a very strong country okay well actually

as it turns out many countries have

spent the last couple of centuries

eliminating many of these policies and

maybe we should take a look at what he's

saying here is a chart it shows that

actually the countries that have for

example as a general matter the lowest

tariff rates are also the countries with

wait for it wait for it wait for it the

highest GDP per capita why it turns out

that richer countries have been steadily

lowering their tariff rates and many of

the poorest countries on Earth have

really really high average tariff rates

including by the way Madagascar and

Bundi and the Central African

Republic why it's almost as though

tariff rates actually decrease wealth

because tariffs increase prices and

reduce trade and all the things the

tariffs are designed to

do and president Trump suggested that

the tariffs are kind and they are

generous and they are friendly here he

was saying that the tariffs are kind

because it's only half the rate that

other countries are charging us but as

we've already discussed and here in lies

the problem those aren't the real tariff

rates for Nations that treat us badly we

will calculate the combined rate of all

their tariffs non-monetary barriers and

other forms of cheating and because we

are being very kind we're kind people

but we will charge them approximately

half of what they are and have been

charging us so the tariffs will be not a

full reciprocal okay here is the actual

thing those are not the real tariff rats

and this is why it matters okay why does

it matter how the calculation is done it

the reason it matters is because if the

goal was to get other countries to lower

their tariffs which I am totally fine

with I would love it that would be great

if that was the goal then you can't

tariff countries that have no tariffs on

us where we already have a free trade

agreement if you are using trade

deficits to calculate a fake tariff rate

and using that as the margin of tariff

on those countries there is literally no

way for them to Forstall the tariffs you

are putting on their country other than

by presumably getting the people of

Madagascar to somehow buy millions of

dollars of American product or the

people of Ethiopia to buy billions of

dollars of American product GDP per

capita Ethiopia 950 bucks a

Year by the way the actual terriff rates

among the biggest countries in the world

are actually fairly low according to the

World Trade Organization the United

States has a trade weighted average

tariff rate of 2.2% in 2023 as compared

with 2.7% for the EU 1.9% % for Japan

3.4% for Canada 3.3% for China and 1.7% for

for

Switzerland I

mean if the goal is to get the tariffs

lower then let's what maybe we should do

that maybe maybe that should be the

actual goal here maybe that's what we

should do well Scott bessent the

treasury secretary he was asked about

all of this and his basic perspective is

it's not clear how long these shff are

going to last how they're going to be

implemented as we'll get to in a moment

there are already exemptions that are

being put out there for the tariffs by

the Trump Administration like

immediately here was the treasury

secretary these are our closest allies

South Korea Japan when you look at those

countries and the tariffs that they're

being charged um if they're calling what

would you say to to those Nations who

may have concerns about how to to lower

these numbers well I I would say they've

been doing it to us for a long time

right and if they don't like tariffs

then why do they have them and should we

view these as permanent

that again I I think we're going to wait

and see how this plays out okay we're

going to wait and see how this plays out

is the hope of all markets everywhere

because the markets are sending pretty

strong signals they don't like it very

much by the way by the polling again

this notion that Americans are just they

hate foreign trade they hate it with a p

Gallop poll 2025 what do you think

foreign trade means for America do you

see foreign trade more as an opportunity

for economic growth increased through US

exports or a threat to the economy from import

import

81% opportunity for economic growth 14%

threat to the economy I have a basic

role in politics do not take the 20 side

of 820 issues unless there's like a

great moral reason to do so don't do it

it's not a good

idea so what exactly is the Senate going

to do well the Senate voted on a

resolution that says that they're going

to try to seize back power from the

executive branch over tariffs like this

it would require action in the house to

actually stop

this I I doubt that that's going to

happen anytime in the near future the

Republican party is of course Very Much

split over this nobody wants to go up

against the Trump Administration on this

this is the purview of Congress let's be

clear what president Trump is doing

should never if it was ever delegated by

Congress to the executive that's insane

and it probably wasn't is not a National

Emergency that justifies one of the

biggest tax increases on American

consumers in the history of America it

is a very very it it does

not it does not justify that there is no

National Emergency because the United

States buys more product from from

Thailand than we sell to Thailand that

is not in fact a National Emergency

again there are many reasons why tariffs

Can Be Good tariffing China to punish

them to try and cut them off from the

world economy good this by the way is

also why you should sign free trade

agreements with all the nations that Rim

China tariffs for purposes of protecting

National Security Laden Industries in

the United States good and useful we

can't have Outsourcing if God forbid we

need to produce things for a war or a

pandemic or

whatever ter in order to get other

countries to drive down their own fine

and good but the tell to me here is

again I go back to this if the idea is

to get other countries to lower their

tariffs if this is raise the tariffs to

lower the tariffs then why are we

charging tariff rates on countries that

don't have tariffs against us why that's

the tell and so the question becomes

what this actually looks like in

practice now I've been a little bit

catastrophist about this because I'm

taking the Trump administration at their

word the reality is I don't think that

this thing gets implemented anything

like it is currently being retailed to

the public I think in reality the Trump

Administration is likely to bul those

holes right through this tarff regime in

the areas that it figures is going to

most hurt Americans and it's likely to

try and leverage headlines out of

various foreign Nations suggesting

they're going to invest in America to

the tune of some billions of dollars

before lowering the Tariff rates again

because as I've said before I do have

fate that President Trump actually

responds to headlines and responds to

the news he lives in the world of

reality and it would not be living in

the world of reality for him to Simply

ignore if markets hate all of this if

costs start going up if recession is

imminent he does not want to preside

over recession which is why again I

think this policy is Mis begotten I also

think president Trump is not going to

implement it as currently

stated so what does this actually mean

in practice well the White House quietly

put out a fact sheet yesterday to all of

its embassies talking about what exactly

president Trump is doing so apparently

the tariffs will remain in effect until

such a time as president Trump

determines the threat posed by the trade

deficit an underlying non-reciprocal

treatment is satisfied resolved or

mitigated so he can unilaterally decide

hey we solved the trade deficit all done

so presumably what does that mean that

means you got a few announcements from

various countries saying that we're

going to invest in the American economy

and then president Trump's like big

headline win tariff G he could easily do

that I'm hoping that's what he is

planning on doing also there are some

very key Goods that are not actually

going to be subjected to the tariffs

including by the way steel and aluminum

articles and auto and auto parts already

subject to section 232

tariffs copper Pharmaceuticals

semiconductors and lumber articles okay

well this and this shows you the

bizarreness of this sort of tariff

regime one of the things that the

tariffs were allegedly designed to do

was resore manufacturing of key

components like for example

semiconductors semiconductors are

basically the oil of the 21st century

they're the thing no one can operate

without so if you actually wanted to

reshore through tariffing and

protectionism manufacturing of

semiconductors you would leave the

tariffs on the semiconductors but he

doesn't want to do that because it'll

radically increase the price of every

product that uses a semiconductor

ranging from your phone to your fridge

so he's exempting that all articles that

may become subject to Future section 232

tariffs Bulan and energy and other

certain materials that are not available

in the United States so we're still

going to be importing that Canadian gas

presumably which by the way is the

reason we have a trade deficit with

Canada we have trade surplus for

literally everything else except for gas

like if you take away the gas in the

American balance of trade with Canada we

have a surplus with Canada

Canada

meanwhile usmca compliant Goods will

continue to to see a 0% tariff non usmca

compliant Goods will see a 25% tariff

non usmca compliant energy and potash

tariff again the I do not think this

policy is the longlasting durable

strictly imposed policy that is

currently being laid out by the White

House I think president Trump Trump is

going to see how the markets react he's

not going to like it he's going to start

punching holes through this pretty much

as fast as possible but Democrats

finally got their talking point all they

had to do is wait and now they got it

the Democrats are saying the recession

is a coming it is recession day says

hakee jeffre the House minority leader

remember Republicans have the barest of

bare majorities in the house Democrats

just won the Wisconsin Supreme Court

which means that they are going to

redistrict and add a couple of seats so

if there is any sort of recession at all

mildest recession Democrats are taking

the house here's hakee Jeff looking more

excited than he has in

months not a single administrative

action has been done by Donald

Trump House Republicans or Senate

Republicans to lower the high cost of

living in the United States of

America in fact Republicans are crashing

the American economy in real time and

this is not Liberation day it's recession

recession

day well he's certainly hoping it

is and here in lies lies they've been

rooting for a session I mean Democrats

are rooting for a session so the number

one thing you don't want to do is you

know jump on a rake Chuck Schumer the

Senate minority leader who's been on the

outs with his own party he's looking

pretty fresh and peppery as well in the

aftermath of the

announcement this map has how much each

state would pay for this absurd crazy

chaotic trade War but the worst thing

about it is that it so hurts American

families it is estimated that the

average American family will pay more than

than

$5,000 out of their

pocket to pay for these tariffs

meanwhile James Carville jumping on the

bandwagon and torching president Trump

over the Tariff

regime they just Trump going pad he gets

in there and he figures I don't have to

get approval from Congress I don't need

to bring it into a cabinet I can just do

this and so the idea that he can just do

something on his own unilaterally has

great appeal to him and then of course

everybody's got to call him to get

because you can exempt people and so he

likes getting you up the thing he loves

having foreign people call and say hey

can you exempt you know finish steal

from these to or whatever it is and it's

all just a play there's no policy behind

it it's it's just his ego playing itself

out in public now let's say that that's

right let's say that President Trump

actually is able to get a bunch of

countries to announce that they are

reshoring American manufacturing or that

they're going to lower their own tariffs

okay so you gets the win if the price

the proof is going to be in the pudding

as it always is because the thing about

economics you can feel it in your

pocketbook Economic Policy you feel it

your kitchen table economic policy is

the thing that you can tell every time

you open up your grocery bill every

single time so the proof is going to be

in the pudding if the prices go up if

you if if your business is having

trouble making payroll if consumption

goes down if investment goes down

because investors are freaked out

because they're getting whipsawed like

nobody's business again I I was talking

with investors pretty much all day

yesterday given what was going on and

the number one thing that I was hearing

from major investors is I don't know

what the hell is going on that was the

number one thing before and after the

amount of confusion chaos in the markets

a feeling of

complete dyspeptic ulcer ridden kind of

churn that is very real and that is not

good for markets because there's a bunch

of money sitting on the sidelines

waiting to be invested there's a bunch

of economic growth ready to go so again

the markets are reacting as you would

expect the markets to react they opened

just in the Trashy this morning when the

bell sounded to open the market the Dow

Jones Industrial Average plummeted

immediately more than 1,000 points the

S&P 500 plummeted more than 3% the

NASDAQ plummeted almost 4 a half% that

was on open now CNBC actually obtained

audio of the CEO of Restoration Hardware

whose stock got pummeled this morning on

open he was doing a call with his

investors it was an open call and here

was his reaction to what was going on in

the markets when he found out what had

happened to his

stock do we have that sound built have

care um so Gary Friedman's on the call

and apparently is notified in the middle

the call that his stock was down 25%

take a

listen in this race and I like I don't

where's our stock now I mean I guess I

guess you know the stock went down you

know based on some of the numbers we

reported and then it got killed because

of uh um oh really okay I just looked I

just looked at the screen I hadn't

looked at

it oh boy oh boy so uh if that's the

reaction across the country that is not

going to be great and so the question is

going to be how the markets take this as

it sinks in what's going to happen over

the course of the next week is President

Trump going to send out surrogates like

the treasury secretary to walk some of

this back to try and point out where an

off-ramp is or is he just going to keep

doubling down on the theory that it's

short-term pain for long-term gain if so

he's going to have to explain how

short-term the pain is and what exactly

the long-term gain is because that has

not even been spelled out at this point

if the idea is that other countries are

just going to reshore to the United

States to take advantage of our markets

in some way but we will leave tariffs on

stuff that they export to

us or they could just form trade blocks

themselves and then go make time with

the Chinese they could do that there are

real world implications for this sort of

stuff trade Wars are in fact not good

and not easy to win particularly if you

don't actually have a plan you actually

have to have a plan so I want somebody

to lay out that plan seriously you've

heard me on on today's show pretty

animated about how I don't think that

this is particularly good policy so what

I would love is for somebody to make the

case as to why this is actually

excellent policy why this is going to be

salutory for the United States why this

is going to benefit the people of the

United States on mass and if you going

to call for Sacrifice from the American

people the question is what is the thing

on the other side of that sacrifice that

is better and good what is that thing

there are a lot of theories out there

things like well what if we weaken the

dollar meaning there's just less demand

in international trade for the American

dollar because people are tariffing us

and we're tariffing them and then when

we we in the dollar then we can pay off

our debt more easily or something like

that well you're not going to pay off

your debt unless you grow the economy or

inflate your way out that's just the

reality so that's not a great answer if

the case is that we need to resore then

what we should be doing is targeting the

places where we want to resore the most

and understand that there are costs to

doing that to Consumers and to

businesses because that of course is

very real but I have yet to hear an

actual explanation what I've heard so

far from people inside the

administration unfortunately I wish this

weren't the case what I've heard so far

is a lot of casting of

various aspersions at foreign countries

for engaging in trade with us regardless

of whether they are good or bad because

we're treating Canada the same way we're

treating China here and and this is why

yeah I think the markets are confused

investors are confused confusion and

fear are going to breed sell-offs that

is what they're going to breed less

investment less job growth

growth

it's this is all avoidable it's all

avoidable but we need to hear an actual

narrative not a bunch of talking points

that are generated for a cork board that

is filled filled with Statistics made up

by some sort of AI well joining us

online to discuss everything economics

related is representative Jody Arrington

of course from Texas he is the house

budget committee chairman representative

thanks so much for joining the show I

really appreciate it you bet Ben great

to be with you well I do want to get to

the the budget the big beautiful Bill

and all that obviously I be Miss if I

didn't start with the big economic news

perhaps of the decade which would be the

president's announcement of his tariffs

yesterday the markets reacted quite

poorly this morning obviously Dow Jones

Industrial average dumped 3% on open

similar numbers from the S&P 500 the

NASDAQ down almost 5% what what do you

make of the tariffs do you think that

they are geared toward the lowering of

tariffs in in other countries what are

you hoping president Trump is is is

going to achieve with us I hope past is

prologue and that uh the same strategies

that were applied in president Trump's

first term that were successful in

resetting the trade Arrangement or

relationship with our trading partners

happens in this round and I suspect it

will um so we just need a Level Playing

Field for manufacturers for farmers and

for our workers uh and I think that's a

pretty basic principle that we should

rally around the president for we've had

our manufacturing and and Industrial

base hollowed out over the years uh

We've suppressed worker wages in this

country uh we've left uh economic

activity and growth on the table all

because we've allowed other countries to

take advantage of our low barriers to

entry or access to our markets while

they've used tariffs and a lot of

non-tariff barriers uh to effectively

tax our products going in to their

market so this resets important there

will be pain and some disruption on the

front end but in the long run we have to

do it and the big piece of this that is

probably underestimated and undervalued

is our dependence on other countries for

drugs for computer chips and other

important products and materials for our

national security or Public Safety so

all in all this will be a huge uh Boon

to this economy and and critical to our

national security Trump has to stay the

course we have to support him and I'm

all in now Congressman I do have to ask

a couple more questions on that one is

you mentioned semiconductors you

mentioned some of the other products

that are National Security related he

has already Exempted he says

semiconductors from the tariffs

presumably because it would raise prices

too much on so many of the products that

we use and and I guess the other

question is that the the sheet that he

put out yesterday that the

administration put out labeling tariff

rates at 70 80 90% in some of these

countries it appears that that was

calculated by essentially just taking

the trade deficits with those countries

and dividing it into the Imports to the

United States from those countries and

coming up with a percentage that really

has nothing to do with the Tariff rate

so for example South Korea is listed on

on this particular form as having a 50%

tariff rate we have a free trade

agreement with with South Korea we pay

an effective tariff rate in South Korea

of something like 8% even if you add

their value added tax on top you're

talking about like a 10% tariff

certainly not a 50% tariff my problem

with with that calculation is I'm with

you I want them to lower their trade

barriers but it seems to me that if

you're a country like for example Israel

literally yesterday announced zero

tariffs on American Products coming in

we hit them with a 17% tariff anyway

what what sort of deliverable is the

administration actually looking for

that's the thing I want Clarity on if

there's a deliverable on the other end

of these tariffs sure sounds

what do you think the deliverable ought to

be well I think it should just be an

Apples to Apples fairness in terms of

trade policy so um it should be tariffs

it should be there are non-tariff sort

of technical barriers like GMO with

respect to our a products uh there are

quotas that are not they're not

considered tariff but they're still huge

barriers they've been for uh many years

for dairy products going into Canada

that was part of the restructuring of

the NAFTA to

usmca um and so there so there's a a

number of ways vat taxes border

adjustment taxes so I think the

president's and and his team are looking

at the totality of it but I'm with you

it needs to be Apples to Apples we're

not looking for isolationism or we're

not looking for Chinese industrial

policy where uh we're subsidizing our

guys uh and blocking out competition

from others we believe in uh free

markets and competition but free markets

and free trade don't exist if they're

not fair on an Apples to Apples trade

policy basis and I think that's that's a

good fundamental uh principle in uh in

trade policy and trade negotiations and

Congressman Arington one of the things

that I think that that people in the

markets are worried about is that

there's been a lot of whipsawing a lot

of kind of policy uncertainty so far

particularly regards of this stuff the

investors that I know are kind of

holding out their money waiting to see

where everything settles which isn't an

unreasonable position given the the

changes president Trump is declaring

these tariffs on a National Emergency

basis and the National Emergency that

he's claiming is the trade deficit it it

is difficult to see how a trade deficit

amounts to a National Emergency under

the law where do you think the line of

congressional Authority lays with regard

to tariffs as opposed to Executive

Authority on

tariffs that's a great question um I

think there are National Security

implications if we can't U make

materials that go into making War war

machines that protect our country and

our allies like Israel so that that's

one you have to watch closely I think we

all were surprised during covid to find

out that we couldn't get protective gear

for our healthc care workers or or that

90% of our antibiotics for example were

made in China um and then you know

computer chips that run everything

effectively uh we we're a soul Source

provider uh with Taiwan so you you have

to look at these things I agree with in

terms of where is the national security

or Public Safety Nexus and then on all

and on everything else Ben it needs to

be the Apples to Apples fairness issue

and uh because I do think we've been

taken for granted that's why we have a

two to1 uh 3 to1 uh deficit with uh the

top 20 countries representing the top 20

largest uh economies in the world so

Congressman Arington all of this makes

it that much more important that the big

beautiful Buzz resolution actually get

passed because the Market's already

priced in I assume uh because uh pretty

much everyone I'm talking to has the

permanence of the Trump tax cuts if that

were to if that were to disappear there

would be a massive Market catastrophe I

think it's pretty clear to everybody

that the the big beautiful bill needs to

happen where does that stand how do you

see that being ushered through the

process uh well let's just go back and

look at just real quickly the first term

we had the highest levels of

uh business investment R&D investment we

had the lowest unemployment we lifted 6

million people out of poverty all of

this was the comprehensive economic

policy agenda which included reset on

trade but it also was good energy policy

good tax policy and work incentives

right work incentives for work capable

adults so we've got to get back

transition from unbridled spinning and

failed economic policies to this agenda

most of which to your point is wrapped

up in this budget reconciliation Bill we

need to lock in the low taxes we

certainly can't have $400 billion tax

hikes in in the first year would send us

into a recession we can't add 22% on

average of a tax hike on taxpaying

Americans after Biden inflation which

was about a 20% regressive tax hike so

couldn't agree more that's in there

opening up energy production

deregulating the economy work incentives

invest in Military and border security

all in there that's why it's one big

beautiful bill right that that is the

full America First agenda for the most

part and the most consequential piece of

legislation in my lifetime Ben but we

have to make sure that as we advance

this and all the cost to it we start to

bend the spending curve that's driving

an unsustainable debt and Republicans

have failed in the past to do that and I

want to make certain not just for this

great country our economy and our

current uh uh security or defense

Readiness but for our children who are

going to inherit the Whirlwind of our

recklessness now to the tune of $36

trillion in debt $2 trillion doll annual

deficits a trillion dollar just to

service the debt those are all deferred

taxes on our children so we have to have

offsets we cannot increase the deficit

and we got to get our country on a

sustainable and responsible path that's

missing from the Senate's bill that was

in the house bill and I made sure of it

along with other colleagues so at the

end of this uh rainbow we have to get to

a spot that we reignite economic growth

through all the policies we talked about

including tax but we're bringing the

debt to GDP down we're bringing the

deficit to GDP down otherwise we

bankrupt the country and none of this

matters none of it and we're not the

leader of the Free World and our values

aren't the dominant values that

influence the world and we can't support

our allies etc etc now Congressman

Arrington I I've said on the show that

you co-authored with Phil Graham former

chairman of the Senate Banking Committee

the single most important opet of The

Last 5 Years which was this toad in the

Wall Street Journal talking about how

means tested welfare programs are the

thing that's bankrupting the United

States that for the most part Medicare

and Social Security are paid for for the

most part not in their entirety but the

thing that actually is rising

dramatically continues to be the cost on

the means tested welfare programs when

you talk about the the budget Bill What

in in your version of the budget bill

was was aimed at sort of Bringing Down

the cost on those uh well a whole lot I

mean you have to have uh if you just

took the Medicaid that's the largest

means tested welfare program it doesn't

have a work requirement for able-bodied

adults like all the other programs from

the Bill Clinton welfare to work uh uh

era that actually brought down

dependence on welfare by 80% but it's

been gained by States and others

especially California so we have to

close the loopholes there and we have to

put actual expectations for work capable

adults in these programs uh like in

Medicaid if you just reviewed the roles

this is a basic program Integrity

measure that everybody can understand if

you review the roles and make sure that

those benefiting are legally eligible

and they're not here illegally in this

country or for other reasons aren't

eligible then you save $160 billion do

just reviewing it twice versus once so

it's all of the above you also have

States and local special interests that

siphon money away from uh these programs

that that have nothing to do with the

beneficiary so uh it's it's broken it's

part of what's bankrupting the country

and uh we've got to act responsibly as

we write this fiscal ship to focus on

these welfare programs well that's house

budget chairman Jody Arrington doing

good work on the hill really appreciate

your time sir and thanks for your

Insight Ben it's an honor to be with you

meanwhile there is in fact breaking news

on the Joe Biden front believe it or not

so there is a brand new piece out from

the UK Guardian suggesting a new book

top Biden AIDS were perfectly well aware

that Joe Biden was ailing during the

2024 election Ron Clan served Biden from

2021 to 2023 and then he came back last

June to run debate prep according to

clan in this new book it turned out

Biden quot did not know what Trump had

been saying and couldn't grasp what the

back and forth was left preparation and

fell asleep by the pool obsessed about

foreign leaders saying quote these guys

say I'm doing a great job as president

so I must be a great president didn't

really understand what the argument was

on inflation and had nothing to say

about a second term other than finish

the job as described by CA to a reporter

Chris Whipple at one point Biden had an

idea quote if he looks perplexed when

Trump talked voters would understand

that Trump was an idiot clay replied sir

when you look perplexed people just

think you're perplexed and this is our

problem in the race the book is titled

Uncharted how Trump be Biden Harrison

the odds in the wildest campaign in

history well I mean yes obviously Clan

was hiding it clan by the way has been

saying that Biden should have stayed in

the race which again is an easy sort of

revisionist History given the fact that

Harris then went on to lose to Donald

Trump but it's pretty unbelievable these

stories are crazy Whipple says quote at

his first meeting with Biden in Aspen

Lodge the President's Cabin Clan was

startled he'd never seen him so

exhausted and out of it Biden was

unaware of what was happening in his own

campaign halfway through the session the

president excused himself and went off

to sit by the pool that evening Biden

met again with clay and his team Mike

donellan St shed Bruce Reed we sat

around the table said Clan Biden had

answers on cards he was just extremely

exhausted and I was struck by how out of

touch with American politics he was he's

just very very focused on his

interactions with NATO leaders CL

wondered half seriously if Biden thought

he was president of NATO instead of the United

United

States oh boy well I wonder uh I wonder

why he lost I wonder why he dropped out

and then and then Kam Harris lost

meanwhile in other hilarious news

Jonathan Allen of Politico is now

reporting that Barack Obama Obama behind

the scenes after Biden dropped out was

actually working to Scuttle Kamala Harris's presidential bid this is

Harris's presidential bid this is another one of these new books called

another one of these new books called fight inside the wildest battle for the

fight inside the wildest battle for the White House here's Jonathan Allen

White House here's Jonathan Allen explaining President Obama absolutely uh

explaining President Obama absolutely uh did not think that Joe Biden should

did not think that Joe Biden should continue uh according to our sources uh

continue uh according to our sources uh close to President Obama and uh he also

close to President Obama and uh he also didn't want KLA Harris uh to to be the

didn't want KLA Harris uh to to be the replacement for Biden he didn't think uh

replacement for Biden he didn't think uh that she was the best uh choice for

that she was the best uh choice for Democrats uh and he worked really behind

Democrats uh and he worked really behind this seems uh for a long time to try to

this seems uh for a long time to try to have uh a mini primary or an open

have uh a mini primary or an open convention or mini primary leading to an

convention or mini primary leading to an open convention uh did not have faith in

open convention uh did not have faith in uh her ability to win the election so uh

uh her ability to win the election so uh and as it as it turned out she she

and as it as it turned out she she didn't win but um he was really working

didn't win but um he was really working against

against her well it turns out that I think

her well it turns out that I think that's a little excuse making by Barack

that's a little excuse making by Barack Obama but maybe he shouldn't have

Obama but maybe he shouldn't have selected Joe Biden as his vice president

selected Joe Biden as his vice president and then maybe he shouldn't have

and then maybe he shouldn't have selected kamla Harris as Joe Biden's VI

selected kamla Harris as Joe Biden's VI president he's very involved in that

president he's very involved in that actually back in 2020 all righty folks

actually back in 2020 all righty folks the show continues in a moment we are

the show continues in a moment we are going to be talking about Elon Musk at

going to be talking about Elon Musk at doge is he out Politico says he may be

doge is he out Politico says he may be on his way out we'll get into that the

on his way out we'll get into that the administration denies plus we'll take

administration denies plus we'll take your questions as always heading over to

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YouTube Transcript:What The Hell Happened on LIBERATION DAY?!