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🔴 Gold Bull In a Bitcoin Conference - Ep 1029

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You make no friends in the pits and you

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[Music]

Show. Welcome everybody to the Peter

Schiff Show podcast. I am on the road.

This is part of my summer 2025 podcast

tour. I am now in Monteceto, California,

which is part of Santa Barbara. For

those of you who may not be familiar

with the area, it is very beautiful out

here. I just arrived the other day from

Las Vegas where I was a speaker at the

Bitcoin 2025 conference. I will be

talking about my experience at that

podcast. On the other side of the

commercial break and basically most of

today's podcast, I think I will talk

about my experience at the at the

Bitcoin conference. But before before I

get there, let me talk a little bit

about the markets, what's going on. You

know, we're in a brand new month now.

This is the month of June. And when the

month of May started, I thought maybe

investors would sell in sell in May. and

and go away. Uh but they did not do

that. Uh they not only did not sell,

stock market investors bought. We had

one of the best maze probably ever. I

mean, I haven't had a chance to research

it. Uh but the numbers are pretty big.

The Dow was up about 5 and a half% on

the month. S&P 500 up

8% on the month. These are big moves for

a month. The NASDAQ up 11 and a half% in

the month of May. Even the Russell 2000,

which had been battered pretty badly,

was up 7% during the month. Uh, Bitcoin

rose

11%. Almost exactly the amount of the

NASDAQ. And you know what? A lot of

people have been trying to claim that

Bitcoin is decoupled from the NASDAQ.

It's not a risk asset anymore. It's

trading more like gold. Well, all of

those calls are premature. Gold was down

about a half a percent on the month. So,

how could anybody say that Bitcoin is

now correlated with gold and not the

NASDAQ when it pretty much traded in

lock step with the NASDAQ on the month

and it traded nothing like gold. The

interesting thing though about gold is

that while gold was flat to slightly

lower, the gold stocks managed to rise.

The GDX was up 4 and

a.5% on the month and the GDXJ the

juniors was up 7 and a half%. That's not

bad uh given flat to lower gold prices.

And in fact, in the final uh week of the

year, last several days, we had gold

down about 30 bucks one day, $40 another

day. And on both of those days, the gold

stocks were positive. And so a lot of

the gains on the month happened in the

final week of the month despite the fact

that gold was down. And I've been saying

that this was going to happen that we'd

have to see gold stocks going up even if

the price of gold went sideways or down

because gold is already so high and

these stocks are so cheap. They're not

even priced for 2,000 gold, let alone

$3,300 gold. And that's about where gold

is now. In fact, it's up about $32

already early on a Sunday evening. We're

3322 on gold. And you know why would

while we did have a big rise in the

stock market on the month, we did not

have a rise in the bond market at all.

Uh yields on the uh US Treasury bonds

are near their highs, meaning bond

yields near their lows. Right now, the

yield on the 10-year is 4.42 42 and the

yield on the 30-year is

4.96. So, not much off the highs in the

yields. Uh not much off the lows in bond

prices. And we barely had a rally at all

in the dollar. Uh the US dollar right

now against the euro is

11375. So just below 1114. The absolute

low in the dollar euro or high in the

euro was 115.

And the dollar index right now is about

99.99. Uh we barely got above or below

0.98. So the dollar didn't rebound.

Bonds didn't rebound. The only thing

that rebounded was the stock market. And

I don't think that that rebound is is

justified. I think the tariffs coming

off the table, at least uh the the

draconian uh reciprocal tariffs, the

145% tariffs uh on on China, I think

there was a huge relief rally in stocks

that it wasn't as bad as investors

thought, but I don't think they ever

really priced in how bad it would be

anyway. So, I think the market should

have gone down more than it did given

how overpriced it already was before the

trade war started. And so, I think this

bounce should not be longived. I think

we should roll over especially if we get

continued weakness in the bond market

and in the um in the foreign currency

markets, the dollar. But a couple of

things that happened over the weekend

that should bold, you know, ill for the

stock market. Right now, stock market

futures are not down that much on the

news. Dow futures off

about.3% 128 points. Uh NASDAQ futures

down about 0.4. You know, one of the

things that helped the NASDAQ last week

was the better than expected Nvidia

earnings. So, uh that was a big deal.

And also, you know, there was a Supreme

Court ruling, not a Supreme Court, a

court ruling, lower court trade court

that, you know, kind of threw out uh

some of Trump's tariffs, saying that

these are are not legal, that the

president doesn't have the authority to

uh unilaterally impose these tariffs.

And I agree with that court, although I

think uh the Trump administration has

got another ruling that the tariffs can

stay until it's resolved by a higher

court. And again, it wasn't all of the

tariffs that were thrown out, but again,

I think the president is abusing his

authority. The reciprocal tariffs are

not really reciprocal because he's not

imposing tariffs that match tariffs that

are imposed by our trading partners.

There is nothing reciprocal about them.

He just called them reciprocal because

of the authority uh to level reciprocal

tariffs. But you can't redefine

reciprocity and just impose whatever

tariffs you want and claim that you've

got the authority. And also the

emergency, you know, Trump has said

that, well, we're imposing tariffs as an

emergency. The emergency is uh fentanyl.

Maybe it's an emergency, maybe it's not.

I mean, I understand that, you know,

there's a huge risk. A lot of people are

dying of fentanyl. Uh but it's clear

that that's not why the tariffs are

there. When Trump campaigned on tariffs,

he didn't campaign on tariffs because of

fentanyl. And when he had liberation

day, he didn't say that he was

liberating us from fentanyl. Uh the

purpose of the tariffs and even the ones

on Mexico and Canada and China are

predominantly to bring American

manufacturing home and to raise revenue.

Trump talks about that all the time. So

you can't say no, revenue is not the

reason. uh you know bringing back our

manufacturing is not the reason it's all

about fentanyl. Uh that's just an excuse

to try to justify tariffs that he has no

authority to impose. I mean if it really

was all about fentanyl he wouldn't be

talking about these other issues. But

obviously and the courts should not turn

a blind eye to what is obvious. The

purpose of the tariffs is revenue and

bringing back manufacturing. If there's

an added benefit of maybe reducing some

fentanyl imports, that does not mean

that that is why they are there and

Trump should not be able to use that uh

to get around the law. Uh the

constitution requires Congress to levy

taxes and more specifically the House of

Representatives. All revenue bills,

including revenues from tariffs, must

originate in the House. And that's

because the founding fathers didn't want

one man in the White House imposing

taxes on the American public. And that's

where the tariffs fall. They are on

Americans. They are not on the Chinese.

They're not on the Mexicans. They're not

on the Canadians. That was just a bunch

of BS. uh so that people would vote for

Trump believing that Trump was going to

fund government from external revenue,

not internal revenue, and that we were

going to be off the hook, that Americans

were going to get tax cuts, and we were

going to pay for government by taxing

China and everybody else. And that was

just not true. But that uh court uh loss

for Trump was uh taken as a win for the

markets because the stock market

obviously does not like the tariffs and

so that anything that diminishes those

tariffs would be helpful to the stock

market. Now over the weekend, Donald

Trump posted on uh on Truth Social

uh that apparently the Chinese uh are

cheating. They're not living up to their

end of the bargain. I'm not even sure

what the bargain is because they really

didn't uh negotiate much. They both

reduced the tariffs that they had

imposed. Uh Trump imposed them, went up

to 145, and then China went up to 125 in

retaliation. And then after they met in

Geneva, uh Trump came down to 30 and and

China came down to 10 or something like

that. And that was about it. I'm not

really sure what else they agreed on,

but apparently the Chinese aren't living

up to their end of the bargain. And now

it's no more Mr. Nice Guy. So, we'll see

because now Trump is basically saying

maybe we're going to have more tariffs.

And in his post on Truth Social, Trump

said the only reason the only reason

that he lowered tariffs was to help out

China, right? He said the Chinese

economy was devastated by the tariffs

and that there was going to be civil

unrest and he didn't want that to

happen. He felt bad for China because

they were, you know, there was so much

hardship as a result of the tariffs that

he that he felt uh sorry for the

Chinese. And so he decided to be a nice

guy and just, you know, go easy on them,

right? as if it had nothing to do with

the US stock market tanking uh or all

these forecasts for recession because

you know there was no ships coming in

from China with products and no had

nothing to do with our economy. He was

solely motivated by the goodness of his

heart because he felt bad for the

Chinese and wanted to let him off the

hook. But now he's saying no more Mr.

Nice Guy, you know, I'm not going to I'm

going to be tough now on China. which of

course it's not tough on China, it's

tough on Americans. The Americans pay

the tariffs, not the Chinese. The

Americans are going to have to do

without the products, not the Chinese.

There's plenty of products there in

China. In fact, if China exports fewer

products to America, that means there's

more products in China for the Chinese

to buy. So, it's actually good for

China. Whatever they don't sell to us,

they get to keep for themselves, right?

So, that's a good thing. or maybe they

can sell to somebody else uh that

actually has stuff that they need. Uh

but this is a negative development

uh that potentially could be weighing on

the stock market on on Monday. The other

potential negative development is the um

the weekend meeting at the White House.

Uh Donald Trump summoned um Jerome Pal

to the White House basically, you know,

trying to get his mind right by taking

him back behind the woodshed. Uh and uh

and and basically telling him that he

wants lower rates. I mean, that was the

whole purpose of the meeting. Trump

wanted to talk to Pal because Trump has

been beating up Pal in public, calling

him, you know, too late Pal and, you

know, making fun of him. He doesn't know

what he's doing. And I guess he wanted

to state uh his case. I don't know how

much arm twisting there was. Uh but it's

no secret that Trump wants rate cuts and

and Pal is not delivering. Now, as far

as I know, Trump did not accomplish

anything because Pal has made it clear

that it doesn't matter what Trump says.

uh it's his call and he's not going to

be intimidated that the Fed is

independent and he cares about

maintaining the independence of the Fed

and that it would be very damaging to

the Fed's credibility if he were to just

cave and do what the president wants,

not what he thinks is right. But there

are rumors now that uh Pal may resign

tomorrow on Monday. I don't know if

there's some kind of press conference

that's been called. Uh so that's a rumor

that's out there. I again I don't know

if there's any truth to that rumor. I

would be surprised if it were true. I

mean it doesn't seem like it would be

like Pal uh to to resign. But also, you

know, I don't know how much that's going

to accomplish because number one, if Pal

steps down immediately, his position is

filled by the vice chair. Now, I don't

know if he's leaving the FOMC completely

or just resigning as chair and he would

just be a number another voting member.

My my guess would be if he resigns as

chair, he's probably going to leave the

FOMC entirely. But the vice chair would

take his place. Now, if you look at the

meetings there, there's 12 voting

members. So, even if Pal left and and

and you know, now they'd have to get

another voting member. I'm not sure if a

new one has to be appointed or what the

procedure is, but even if it went down

to 11, it's not like the last meeting

was a close call. There was no disscent.

All 12 members, I believe, voted to keep

interest rates

unchanged. So even if the vice chairman

were to become chairman, rates would

still not move.

Now Trump has to appoint somebody else

and whoever he appoints needs to be uh

you know confirmed by the Senate. Now

assuming the Senate just rubber stamps

whatever lackey uh Trump wants to you

know put in Pal's place. He's still only

one vote. Yes. Traditionally, the Fed

chairman carries a lot of weight, but if

the other FOMC members have been honest

and they really think that rate cuts

would be inappropriate and especially if

they're concerned about Trump bringing

in a ringer and and how that might

impact the credibility of the Fed, they

may still vote to leave interest rates

unchanged. So, it won't matter. It's one

man, one vote. It's not like the Fed

chairman has, you know, extra votes. In

fact, he doesn't even cast a tiebreaking

vote. So, if there's a tie, which would

66, nothing happens. So, you have to get

a majority to change policy. And so, I I

I think it would be a hollow victory for

Trump to replace Powell. All it would do

is damage the credibility of the Fed.

Even if the rest of the members hung

tight, it would still look bad uh for

Powell to step down and for Trump to uh

to reappoint somebody. But again, if he

does, it's not going to matter. So, it

would be much better for Trump, right,

if that's really what his agenda is, to

just allow Pal to serve out the

remainder of his term and then, you

know, appoint somebody that won't look

as bad. Plus, I think from a political

standpoint, it actually helps pal and

Trump to have the foil because if the

economy or, you know, gets worse, which

it will, Trump can blame it on the Fed.

He doesn't have to accept

responsibility. He doesn't have to say,

"Look, it's my tariffs or it's the big

increase in the budget from the big

beautiful bill." He can say, "Everything

would have been great if Pal had just

done the right thing." And I told him

what to do because I, you know, I know

more about interest rates than anybody

else, especially too late Pal. I told

the guy to cut rates. He didn't do it.

And that's why the economy went south,

right? That's why we're in a recession.

It's got nothing to do with me, right?

Because I was undermined by the Federal

Reserve. Anyway, we got a quick

commercial break. We're coming right

back, so stick

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All right. Well, my next stop uh is

going to be in Palm Springs, California.

Although, I am going to go down to the

LA area before I head out there. But

that's my next conference. Uh the

Freedom Fest. I have not been at

Freedomfest in a couple of years, two or

three years. I used to go every year. In

fact, I went to the very first one that

Mark Scowzin had. And I I went to a lot

of them uh back then. Uh, but I I've

been missing for a few years, but I'm

going to be at this one. We're going to

have a booth. I got a couple of reps uh

that are going to be there. My family

will be there once again. I mean, many

of you uh had an opportunity to uh to

meet my wife uh at the uh at the Bitcoin

conference. She was there with my kids,

although they weren't really hanging out

at the conference. I'd probably be

hanging out at the conference more uh

this time. By the way, I mentioned on my

last podcast or two podcasts ago, my

wife has a new uh video out from her new

uh song um Love Love on Fire. A number

of you have watched it, but she's got a

great video that she composed. Remember,

she wrote the song, she sings the song,

she did the video. You could check it

out on her YouTube channel, uh Laughing

Cats. We'll probably drop another link

in the description here, and you could

uh watch her her new video. Uh but she

will be uh with me at Freedom Fest. So I

would encourage people to sign up uh to

join me in Palm Springs. It's California

I mean June 11th through the 14th. So

it's coming up. Uh but some people

living here could probably move get

there on a last minute. And then later

in the month I'm doing the Real Estate

Guys Summit at C June 20th to the 29th.

I mentioned on I don't know if it was my

last podcast or two podcasts ago that

I'm going to be flying directly to Miami

from San Francisco and I invited anybody

from the Bay Area who is signed up for

this conference uh to fly with us uh on

our plane. Um and one of our my clients

from the Bay Area signed up. So he and

his wife will be accompanying my family

on our flight from San Francisco to

Miami on June 19th. Uh there's two more

spots. There was three and in fact two

of the cabins sold but now somebody

cancelled. So they're now at two cabins

still. So if anybody wants to go, look,

definitely sign up. It'll be a great

time. In fact, my wife will be singing.

She always she always performs on these

cruises. So, not the Laughing Cats, but

uh there's a band that she sings with.

So, you know, she'll be entertaining on

on the cruise. But it's a great

educational experience, especially if

you're into incomeroucing real estate.

There are a lot of good speakers that'll

be participating in the entirety of the

oneweek cruise uh along with my family

and I. So, if you want to sign up and if

you happen to be in the Bay Area and you

need a lift, we still have some seats on

the plane on June 19th flying uh to um

uh Miami. You're on your own for your

return trip because we are not going

back uh to the West Coast. I'm going

back up to Connecticut uh from uh from

uh from the summit.

Oh, I don't know what that was. Anyway,

um I want to talk before I get to the

the Bitcoin conference. Oh, and you you

you can sign up for uh Summit at C. It's

investor sum uhsummit

atc.com. You just go and register if you

if you want to attend that event. Again,

June 20th to the 29th. The boat leaves

from Miami, Florida. Um, so I was

watching

um, Meet the Press this morning. I wa,

you know, I watch a few of these Sunday

shows, but I want to talk a little bit

about the Meet the Press because on that

one you had House Speaker Mike Johnson

was talking about the big beautiful bill

and just kept lying through his teeth

about that bill. I mean, first of all,

he also lied about how great the economy

was under Trump. He repeated the lie

that during Trump's c first couple of

years in office, we had the greatest

economy in the history of the world. And

he he went out of his way to say it

wasn't just the greatest economy in the

history of the America. It was the

greatest economy in the history of the

world. So there was never a point in

time in all of world history where any

economy did as well as the US did during

Trump's first couple years, which is so

ridiculous uh to make those grandiose

claims, but that they they keep doing

that. But, you know, then he he went to

talk about specifically about the big

beautiful bill. And one of the things he

said about the big beautiful bill was

that it did not increase the national

debt, which of course it does. I mean,

it increases it a lot. And then he said

it reduces the debt, which it does not,

right? It doesn't reduce anything. We

would have a smaller debt if this bill

didn't pass. If Congress did nothing and

just allowed the spending to continue

unchanged and allowed the tax cuts to

expire, we would have smaller deficits.

I mean, we would still have deficits.

The national debt would still be going

up every year. It's not like it would go

down, but because of this bill, the

deficits will be bigger than what

otherwise would have been the case

without the bill. So, how can you claim

that uh this bill reduces the debt,

doesn't increase the debt? And then he

said that it was the largest uh step

ever taken by Congress to kind of um

change the the course that we're on, the

fiscal course of the country, that this

is just a first step in the right

direction. He said like it's it's we're

turning a battleship, right? So we can't

just turn it on a dime, but we have to

start slowly. And he claimed that the

big beautiful bill was this great start,

right? And it's the most historic thing

and this is fantastic when it doesn't do

anything. We're we're not changing

course. We are staying on the exact same

course that we've been on. In fact, not

only does the big beautiful bill not

change the course or alter it in any

way, it actually accelerates the speed

with which we're traveling down this

course. So, we are headed on a course to

a fiscal disaster. And we're not veering

from that course. We're staying on that

course. We're just stepping on the gas

so that we get to the fiscal disaster

sooner than we would otherwise get

there. Right? if we did not have this

bill, you know, and what really bothered

me too about this whole interview is

then the host because first she was

right to question him, you know, on the

bill and the fact that it it it makes

the deficits worse and, you know, she

brought up this Congressional Budget

Office estimates and then of course uh

Speaker Johnson said, "Oh, who cares

about those estimates? They're no good."

And meanwhile, she pointed out that when

Biden was president, he used those same

estimates uh to say that his deficit was

smok and mirrors uh and that look at the

Congressional Budget Office. And then he

had to say, well, sometimes they get it

right and sometimes they get it wrong.

In other words, when a Republican is

president, uh they get it wrong, but

when a Democrat is president, for

somehow some reason, uh they they get it

right. But the most frustrating part of

it was when they started talking about

the Medicaid cuts and she started going

off on him for these big cuts to med uh

to med to to

Medicaid and and he started to justify

well you know they're not really cuts

they're just you know work requirements.

We just want to make sure that

able-bodied men you know work at least

20 hours a week either as a job or

community service before they get their

benefits. So, I mean, they're not we're

not really cutting the benefits because

we're just requiring work, but you know,

we're not letting people just do nothing

able-bodied. And meanwhile, knowing

knowing that none of these uh

requirements even kick in for five

years. So, they're arguing about these

cuts that don't even really exist. But

of course, the Democrats love to talk

about the cuts as if they did exist

because they want to accuse the

Republicans of cutting Medicaid, which

they're not even doing. Because even the

little bit that Mike Johnson is talking

about that they have the courage to do

doesn't actually happen for five more

years because they don't have the

courage to do it. They're only

pretending they have the courage because

if they had the courage, they would

implement this work requirement right

now. They wouldn't wait five years for

it to kick in knowing that it'll never

kick in because it's going to get

changed before it happens. But

meanwhile, they're taking the heat

anyway. They're getting blamed for these

non-existence cuts. But meanwhile, we

have an increase in military spending in

this uh budget, more than what would

have been spent. Uh increase in money

for the for the wall. And in fact, the

the the extra the extra defense spending

in this

bill exceeds all the Doge cuts. So

whatever we gain through Doge, we blew

it by just handing the money to the

defense department. Right? So, we're

cranking up that spending all at a time

uh when we have a fiscal uh time bomb

ticking, right? So, and again, that's

what I said from the very beginning.

There was a lot of false optimism that

we were going to get our fiscal house in

order, that we were going to have all

these cuts to government spending. None

of that is going to happen. And all of

that is going to weigh heavily uh on uh

on the markets over time. You know,

gold, it was up $32 when I started this

podcast. Now it's only up about $18. So

losing some of that. But the stock

market is now selling off more. The Dow

off 180 points. Uh and the NASDAQ now

down better than a half a percent. The

dollar is weakening. Uh now across the

board, it's weaker than it was earlier.

Let me check out the bond market. I

wonder if rates are rising right now.

um they look like they're they're they

have ticked up a bit uh on on the

yields. I would expect them them to move

up move up more, but the the uh horrible

fiscal situation that is playing out uh

is going to be a big problem. There was

again it was a lot of false optimism and

now there's going to be a lot of

disappointment among our creditors and

it's going to show up in the bond market

in the foreign exchange markets and in

the precious metals markets. Anyway, let

me talk about my experience at the

Bitcoin conference. You know, I got a

lot of flack mainly from some of the

Bitcoiners online about going there.

Like, why is Peter Schiff going to a

Bitcoin conference? I don't like

Bitcoin. All right. Well, do you have to

like Bitcoin to go to a Bitcoin

conference? I mean, can't you be a

Bitcoin bear? I mean, you know, is the

Bitcoin conference just supposed to be

an echo chamber? Is it just supposed to

be a place where everybody, you know,

just parties and talks how great Bitcoin

is and how high it's going to go? Or do

you want to have some serious

discussions? Do you want to have some

contrarian points of view? Not that

there was a lot of contrarian voices

there. I was probably the only one

there. Frankly, there should have been

more. It would have been more of an

interesting conference if there were

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YouTube Transcript:🔴 Gold Bull In a Bitcoin Conference - Ep 1029

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🔴 Gold Bull In a Bitcoin Conference - Ep 1029