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La historia detrás de Javier Milei (Cuando lo conocí descubrí esto de su partido) | Tengo un Plan | YouTubeToText
YouTube Transcript: La historia detrás de Javier Milei (Cuando lo conocí descubrí esto de su partido)
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Juan Ramón, here we have a complete photo
that, well, several people come out to see
what this photo tells you, but there is a
man who has... Well, tell us a little about
the photo in general and then we'll talk about
a man who has changed everything a little.
Well, I hope I can change it more, right?
But eh well, it's a photo, let's see, eh I
am part of a think tank eh of
liberal thought called the
Juan de Mariana Institute eh that was created
in 2004. At that time I was
20 years old when I was part of the
creative team and well, it was
and is a cintang through which we
intend to disseminate many of these
liberal ideas. What is a cintang? For
a cintang is a think tank.
Without thinking and so much action, because you combine
thought with action, right?
You develop ideas and then you spread them.
Well, in fact, the seed of that institute,
or rather the seed of the
University of the Esperides, is in that
institute. That is to say, the same
founding team of that institute is then the one that
launches the University of the
Esperides. So, well,
since 2005, that institute has
given an award every year for an
exemplary career in defense of
freedom to a person relevant
to its members and partners,
right? Uh, well,
all kinds of people have received awards. The first was
Luis Rechar Viol, who greatly contributed
to the whole movement being on its
feet. Uh, I don't know, Mario Vargasa,
maybe another personality that unites you
more, because he also received it.
Well, more than 20 people in the
last 20 years have received it,
right? Uh,
so this photo was
taken at the presentation of this award
to one of the people in the
photo, who is Miguel Ancho Bastos, the
Galician professor I told you about before
and who I think if he ever
comes around here, eh, you'll enjoy it. as
rarely as rarely with his speech.
speech.
So, at that
awards ceremony, of course, I was there because I
love and admire Professor Bastos
very much and I loved accompanying him.
Also present was Gabriel Calzada,
the person on the far left
in the photo, the rector of the
University of Les Espéres and the founder of
the Juan de Mariana Institute. Uh,
he's also the current president of the
Juan de Mariana Institute.
Professor Jesús Huerta de Soto was there, next to
Gabriel Calzada, who is my
doctoral thesis professor. He is another person who has
received the Juan de María Award, for an
exemplary career in defense of
liberty. He is, in a certain sense, the
mentor of many of the liberals who
are active in Spain today. I have
certain doctrinal disagreements with
him, but he's still a person who
has influenced me greatly and is someone I
love very much. And finally, there's a
person who showed up at the last minute and
who wasn't in the script at all,
much less was he supposed to be at that
tribute to Miguel Ancho Bastos:
Javier Miley. That was in May
2023, that is, it was a little over 2
years ago. At that time, Javier Miley was already
planning to run for
president of Argentina,
but he wasn't an official candidate yet,
nor was there any
widespread expectation that he would become president.
At that moment, what did he say to you? He
looked possible.
He did see himself as a president. In other words, he has
always been very convinced of his
ability to become president.
Seeing it from the outside, I say, well, I hope someone,
someone,
I hope someone with liberal ideas
comes along, but I don't think it's going to happen, right? Oh
Oh
no. I mean, no. Objectively, it's very
difficult for an outsider with these
ideas to also become president so quickly
, right? So, well, I
think it was, I mean, of course, if you see
Javier Miley now, you might see him
as a person who really seeks the
spotlight, who really seeks applause, who
really seeks to be pampered and
congratulated, at least at this event. Hm.
Obviously everyone noticed
Javier Miley was there, but at
no point did he demand the spotlight or
any attention. special. Uh, I do
n't know, one might have expected them
from the stands to say, "And is
Javier joining us?" No, he didn't ask for anything, he
just stayed, that is, he went to
pay tribute to Miguel Ancho
Bastos like everyone else. Uh, and well, a few
months later he became president of
the Argentine Republic. Well, during 2024,
he made very profound changes to the
fiscal structure of the Argentine State. He
significantly reduced public spending, unlike
any other president in
Argentina. The
budget picture shows that this is almost unprecedented in
the history of Argentina, and
these are changes that are
very hard for the population, right? Because it means cutting everything.
everything.
Sure, sure. Let's see, a population that
is impoverished and barely survives on what
the state gives you, eh, let's see, there's the
problem, what is it?
Hey, you've probably heard the
saying "don't bite the hand that feeds you" a lot
, right? And Thomas Sat, who was a
libertarian psychiatrist, said, "Of course,
you shouldn't bite the hand that feeds you
, unless that hand is the one that's
keeping you from eating." Okay? So,
this is what happens a bit with the State. The
state breaks your legs and then
says, "No, look, I'm going to give you a
crutch. No, no, no, don't break my
legs and let me walk on my own two
feet." So, that's what happens in Argentina,
right? The state impoverishes you. and then he
hands you crumbs. So, of course, in the
short term it's hard in the sense of,
hey, we're going to take away the crumbs
because we're financing it with
inflation and inflation drives away,
well, savings, it drives away
investment, eh, and it impoverishes us in the long term,
term,
but of course, that's it, I mean, if you don't
correct inflation, the country has
absolutely no future. So, of
course, in the short term it's tough, but it's a
necessary process to restore the country's health,
so that it can grow and
prosper, and therefore, so that the country can
be, let's say, self-sufficient without inflation.
inflation.
So, the first year, the truth is that
things stabilized macroeconomically
and I think it was an almost
flawless year. 2025 has been a much
worse year, both politically and economically. The
government has made mistakes, I believe
very serious ones. Even in matters of
corruption, there is no
substantiated evidence that corruption has occurred,
but there are suspicions, and no
explanations have been given, which, in my view, are
sufficient or adequate for that.
public explanations, eh, not
explanations before a court that
no court has asked them for yet
, but even so there are
suspicions, even if they are well-
founded suspicions generated by the
media that have a
direct interest in your fall, because of course, one
of the first measures that Javier
Miley took was to cut off all funding
to the media. So,
of course, all the media outlets
are against him, trying to bring him down so he can get
the subsidy back, right?
Eh, but hey, even if it's a
media conspiracy, you have to
respond appropriately, and that hasn't been
done. And if it hasn't been done, then it's
logical that many people suspect that
maybe it's not a
media conspiracy, right?
And economically, let's
see, it's been a year that now in
October, that is, in a few weeks,
midterm elections are being held. It is
a different mechanism than that of Spain. Uh,
it's a presidential regime like the
United States. So, every 4 years
the president is elected and every 4 years, but
at alternate times,
half of the chamber is elected. This is so that
the legislative and executive branches
are closely divided, so that everything isn't
always decided in the same vote,
and so that one person doesn't concentrate all the
power. So now there are elections
where half of the legislative branch is elected
. Of course, Javier Miley, although he
won the presidency, has no majority at
all in the chambers, he has almost no
deputies. Therefore, he cannot implement
many of the reforms and
spending and tax cuts he would
like to implement. What's more, the legislature has been
been
approving spending increases in recent months to
upset the budget balance
and bankrupt the country, because it
's really an opposition that says,
"I want the country to go bankrupt so we can
depose this man, fall, and
take power." Which is
exactly what Peronism did in 2001,
when it bankrupted Argentina and
the president at the time, who was the
president elected at the polls, eh de la
Rúa, of course, bankrupted the country and it was a
complete disaster, he had to leave by
helicopter and they came to power without elections.
elections.
You have to go by helicopter.
Yes, yes, he has to leave
the Casa Rosada by helicopter because, of course,
the corralito is declared because it bankrupts the
Argentine banking system and the
Argentine banking system because the
Peronists in Congress vote to repudiate
the Argentine public debt. That is,
they vote against paying Argentina's public debt
. Argentine banks were
loaded with public debt. The
public debt is not paid. Banks go bankrupt.
People's deposits in
banks are unable to pay. And
the corralito is decreed. You cannot
access your money in your checking account. Wow.
Wow.
Of course, people were incredibly angry,
as is understandable, because they were taking your
savings. To whom do they channel their
discontent? Towards the president. The
president is besieged and has to leave
by helicopter and there's a power vacuum and he
says, "Well, then, a
concentration government taken over by the
Peronists." So now they're
trying to do something similar. We're going to turn
the country upside down, we're going to kick this
guy out, and we're going to take back power. Eh,
of course, that generates fear among
investors. If you have half or
more than half of the country's legislative and
electoral forces saying they're
not going to pay the debt, that they don't want to
pay the debt, that they're going to return to the
same vices of the past that generated
rampant inflation and
destroyed the country, if you're an investor, you
say, "I'm not getting involved in this." So, there's
been a flight of
Argentine assets, that's raised
interest rates, lowered the peso,
generated internal uncertainty, the
economy that was growing has stopped
growing, to the point that,
well, many were already arming my
law with the provisional government, they were
saying, "Well, this man is going to have to
leave like in 2001 and
we're going to set up a
concentration government that will clearly be
led by Peronists.
It seems that now the
US government is going to give him a loan
to refinance debt, because many
times there will be talk of loans as
if my law were assuming
more and more debt and more debt and more debt. No,
no. The debt that you take on to refinance
the debt maturities that it has
received. Of course, you have to understand
that Argentina is a country that no one
wants to finance and that has a lot of
debt. So, it has two options. Either it
defaults on the debt, but then it never
regains credibility so that no one
wants to lend to it, or it looks for ways to
refinance. My law, how did it seek
Refinance? Well, by improving the
country's credibility. Look, I have a
balanced budget, stabilized
the value of the currency, I'm going to open up the
economy, as if to say, Argentina has
changed, Argentina is no longer what it used to be,
invest in Argentina again. What
happens? Peronism comes along and says, "No,
no, they haven't changed. When we can, we'll
do the same thing again or worse."
Then you scare away capital. Of course,
you have debt maturities, you can't
refinance. So
why are they getting involved in the United States now?
What are they looking for by getting involved there? The
United States considers my law and the
government of my law as a
geopolitical ally. So, what they've said
is, we're not going to allow
internal political destabilization to bring
down this government due to lack of financing.
financing.
Do you think that's accepted as a favor that
you'll have to repay in the future?
Uh, yes, uh, of course. But that's
geopolitics. I mean, I'm not saying, I
mean, ideally, Argentina shouldn't
depend on financing from the United
States, it should have much more
autonomy, even to establish
trade relations with China, for
example, which is another
super-relevant partner. And but of course, if you
're in debt, you're hyper-indebted and you
have debt maturities that
you can't meet, uh, unfortunately you don't
have that autonomy. It's like when
Spain in the year In 2012, 2013 they said, "
The markets are demanding
very high interest rates from us and we are not sovereign. Of
course, if you go into debt,
then you're sold to whoever gives you
financing, right? You don't have another one, do you?
So Argentina's economic
, social, and political situation is
disastrous, and you have to play with the
bad cards at your
disposal. Which is the least bad of
those bad cards? Well, it will probably
benefit you. Of course, if the United States
is telling you, "Hey, I'm going to
refinance you at a much lower interest rate
than what you're paying." Let's
see, man, yes, it depends on what they ask you
in return. Of course, if they simply
ask you to consider them a
geostrategic ally and not get
too close to China, then maybe it's
worth paying that price, which I think shouldn't be paid
, or rather, ideally,
shouldn't be paid. I think it's a
price to pay, indeed, but the
alternative is to go bankrupt again,
return to rampant inflation and open
a process of social and political disorder
in a war of let's topple this
man illegitimately and install
O. I mean, I think that outlook is much
bleaker than hey, I'm going to look to
see who wants to finance me and
obviously I'm going to have a
much closer geopolitical relationship with
those who are helping me than with
those who aren't. Peronism also
tried it, eh, or be careful here it seems,
right? In other words, Peronism asked China for a line
of credit and China gave it to them.
So, of course, that also implies
that China is going to collect favors to the
extent possible.
So, eh Juan Ramón, eh Javier
Miley, in the power that he could
have without these oppositions, he is being
faithful to liberalism.
Okay, first of all, Javier Miley,
fortunately, and this is because any
politician isn't a tyrant, okay?
So, you said it very well, with the
political power he has, which is
quite scarce. Exact.
Exact.
Hey, what are you doing? Because some people
say, "No, he hasn't done anything he
said he wanted to do." Of course, he
can't do it. Eh, because he doesn't
have all the power of the State at his
disposal. In fact, he has very little
power for what an
Argentine president usually has, doesn't he? So,
to the extent that he can, I believe that
Javier Miley's great achievement has
been to reduce the size of the State in a
very substantial way. the
Argentine state, the federal government,
because Argentina is
also a decentralized country and therefore the
part of the spending that Javier
Miley controls is not even half of all
Argentine public spending, right?
Well, the federal government before
my law, eh, with Peronism or with
Macrism, which is like the PP, let's say, from
there, that is, it's not that it was
Peronism because it was the PSOE and the and the, but
Macrism was the same, it weighed
around 22% of the GDP, right? Javier
Miley left it at 16, meaning
in one year he's reduced
public spending by six percentage points relative to GDP, which is a lot,
and that's actually allowed him to balance the
books. So, the fact that the
adjustment has been essentially through
spending and on such a large scale, I think
is a very remarkable achievement. Then,
during the grace period they gave him
, because of course, as soon as he was
elected, even though the legislature was on his
toes, they couldn't say, "We're not
going to allow you to do anything at all
because the ballot boxes just validated your votes
with 56% of the votes." So, a
total blockade of his government's actions
would have gone down very badly with the
Argentine population. They would have said, "Well,
let him do something, right?" So, they
gave him a grace period to do
certain things, not many, not all of what he
wanted to do, but some. And
during that grace period, it did approve a
a
very powerful deregulation process for Argentina.
For example, one of the most talked about was
the deregulation of the
real estate market. There was a housing law
very similar to the one in Spain, it
deregulated, and if you look at the supply of
rental apartments, it shot up
immediately after all the
deregulation, right? So I think it's
headed in the right direction: less
public spending, fewer taxes, and more
regulation. You're speaking in the past tense, it's as if his
power is about to run out soon.
soon.
Well, the thing is, during this year he hasn't been
allowed to do anything, apart from the
political mistakes he's made, which he
has made, the legislature, as it has
begun to smell blood, says, "Ah, this
man no longer has so much grace with the
people, etc., I'm not going to let him get away with
anything." Because besides, if I block him,
things will get worse for him, that will increase his
discontent and then I'll get
rid of him more easily. So, this
year he has been able to do practically nothing.
nothing.
Well, if he gets a decent result in the October elections, at the
end of October,
maybe he can get things done again,
and that would be very desirable. But
above all, the 2027 presidential elections will determine
whether he has enough political support
to do things, thanks to the Argentine electoral system.
First, because he has to be elected or
not. So, whether he stays or goes, and because
by that time, there will have been a
full legislative electoral cycle, and if
the full electoral cycle has gone
well, he should have a more or
less broad majority in the legislature to be
able to do things. That's when we'll see
we'll see
if it implements an even more
ambitious program than what it has already done. I
think what it has done to become
Argentina is already a lot, but of course,
Argentina is not Switzerland now, right?
And either it's not Ltenstein in the sense that it
's not Singapore. Eh, Javier Miley
supposedly, according to what he has told us
and I believe that it is like that because his
ideas are eh deep and later he can be
corrupted in power like all the
other politicians. Everything I said
before is perfectly applicable to
Javier Miley, I'm not making an exception. And
what he told us is, I want
a much smaller state for
Argentina with much less regulation,
much fewer taxes and much less
public spending, like Singapore,
etc. Well, that's not Argentina by any
stretch of the imagination these days. So, I
think, it will be more in the next legislature if he
has support in Congress, where
we will see if this is the case or if he has deceived us.
Just a gimmicky speech
to attract a certain type of voter.
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