The US is considering military action against Iran amidst nationwide protests and a brutal crackdown, while Iran's regime faces internal pressure and external threats, leading to a complex geopolitical standoff with potential for negotiation or escalation.
Mind Map
Click to expand
Click to explore the full interactive mind map • Zoom, pan, and navigate
The White House says air strikes on Iran
remain on the table as US President
Donald Trump weighs up his response to a
crackdown on nationwide protests. Rights
groups say they have confirmed the
killing of many hundreds of people
during the demonstrations, the largest
in several years. The Islamic regime
blames the bloodshed on foreign
interference and has ordered counter
rallies in an attempt to regain the
initiative with progovernment supporters
flooding the streets on Monday. Iran's
president Masud Peshkan was among those
joining the crowds.
And with the threat of US intervention
in Iran looming, President Donald Trump
says the leaders of the Islamic Republic
have called him to negotiate.
Bodies in bags at a morg outside Tehran.
Hospitals with beds full of injured
people seen here in footage verified by
DW's Farsy service. Protesters
vandalizing the Abuzar mosque before
allegedly setting it on fire. Iran could
be at a tipping point.
US President Donald Trump says Iran
wants to talk while insisting military
action is still on the table.
>> The leaders of Iran called they want to
negotiate. I think they're tired of
being beat up by the United States.
>> Iran wants to negotiate. Yes.
>> In public, Iranian politicians have
blamed the US and Israel for the
protests, saying the country is ready
for war, but not ruling out negotiations.
Negotiations must be serious and genuine,
genuine,
not issuing orders and dictating terms,
which is the habit of some countries.
If talks break down or if Trump attacks
Iran preemptively, the Islamic Republic
has threatened to strike US military
bases in the region. Many are close by
in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
Emirates, and Iraq. It could also strike
shipping vessels in the narrow straight
of Hormuz, a choke point through which
much of the world's oil traffic passes.
But Iran's leverage here may be limited.
It attacked a US base in Qatar last
summer with missiles, all of which were
Negotiations with the US could include
relief from economic sanctions which
have throttled the Iranian economy. The
country's nuclear program, thought to
have been set back after US and Israeli
strikes last year, could also be up for
discussion. A deal to dismantle that
program would be a major victory for Trump.
For many here, a deal between the US and
Thrron would be bittersweet. Though it
could make economic conditions easier,
it would also allow the regime to carry
on. Exactly what protesters want not to happen.
happen.
It's great to welcome Bradley Bowman
back to DW. He's with a center on
military and political power at the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Hi there. Now, Donald Trump seems very
invested in what's happening in Iran.
Why do you think that is?
>> I think uh President Trump is vested in
the developments in Iran because he
understands that America has important
interests there. Uh and he's uh he's
issued some public uh warnings or
redlines. You know, he said on January
2nd, "If Iran shoots and violently kills
uh peaceful protesters, the United
States of America will come to the
rescue. We are locked and loaded and
ready to go." He uh he posted. So, uh it
appears as your correspondent has
highlighted that Iran has just done
that. They heard his warnings. They
shrugged and they proceeded to cross his
red line. So, um, now we have the regime
blocking internet access, trying to make
it more difficult for the Iranian people
to communicate with one another, and of
course, trying to hide what the regime
is doing to the Iran people, and that is
killing them. So, you know, I think
coming off uh the 12-day war where the
US conducted successful military
operations against Iran and the success
of the operation in Venezuela, President
Trump will not hesitate to use military
force in Iran if he thinks it's in his
and America's national security
interest. And I think Iran realizes that
and that's why they're reaching out to
have negotiations because this regime in
Iran has consistently used negotiations
when it's feeling pressure, when it
wants to alleviate that pressure uh and
it wants to avoid the consequences of
its behavior.
>> Let's talk a bit more about that. If the
regime is open to talk as as Trump says
it is, what could or would its leaders
be actually willing to negotiate about?
You know, I've been following Iran for a
long time, and I I I have not seen and I
do not see now any evidence that this
regime is willing to make serious
goodfaith concessions related to its
nuclear program, its ballistic missiles,
and its support for terrorism. So, I
think they will continue to use
negotiations in the way I just
described, and I think it's frankly a
trap that the United States should not
fall into. You know, fool fool me once,
uh, you know, shame on me. Fool me 50
times, shame on us. and and I do worry
that the Trump administration is at risk
of falling into that trap again.
>> What should it do to not fall into that
trap as you've described it?
>> I think uh it should, you know, as a
general rule in US foreign policy, I
think we should issue warnings and red
lines reluctantly, but once you've
issued them, which President Trump has
done, you have to back them up lest your
adversaries and your allies conclude
that we're all talk. And so I think if
the murder of innocent Palestinians,
innocent Iranians continues uh uh that
uh that Trump will have to use military
force. Um and I think this
administration in Iran will view itself
in an existential moment and it may act
more aggressively in than it did during
the 12-day war, but that will only
escalate the military actions of the
Trump administration.
>> Let's uh open this up and look at the
wider context. We've seen military
action in Venezuela, threats against
Greenland, now a possible uh military
intervention in Iran. How would you
categorize or describe this last week
and a half of Donald Trump's second term?
term?
This has been an extraordinary week and
a half. There's headlines I never
thought I would see. But the broader
grand strategic point here with respect
to Iran is that I think the United
States and Darius say our European
allies confront the most daunting
geostrategic environment we've seen
since 1945. And one of the reasons for
that is how China, Russia, Iran, and
North Korea are cooperating. And Tran is
the weakest member of the axis of
aggressors, but they've been punching
above their weight, helping to support
Putin's aggression in Ukraine, fueling
Beijing's massive military modernization
expansion effort, and supporting
terrorism in the Middle East. I mean,
let's remember that the Russian drone
incursions of NATO airspace are thanks
at least indirectly to the support of
Putin they've received from Iran. So, if
the I'll end with this. If the Iranian
people are finally able to have a
government that represents their true
interests and is focused on their
well-being rather than domestic
oppression, the export of terrorism uh
and the pursuit of nuclear weapons, it
would be a victory both for the Iranian
people and I would say a major grand
strategic win for Europe and for the
United States.
>> Thanks a lot for that, Bradley. That's
Bradley Bowman with the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies.
>> Thank you.
>> Well, part of the difficulty in
assessing what's been happening in Iran
is the fact that the government has cut
off the internet and telephone links.
One of the few ways to exchange
information with the outside world has
been through Starlink satellite
connections. Starlink is owned by US
space technology company Space X. It
relies on a constellation of satellites
to transmit internet data. 29 of them
were aboard this rocket last month. Iran
Iran has been jamming the signals, but
users there have had some success
getting through. US President Donald
Trump has spoken to SpaceX boss Elon
Musk to see what can be done to help
more Iranians get online through Starlink.
>> And it's great to welcome Medi Yayan
Jad. Now, he is an Iranian digital
rights and democracy activist. He joins
us from Los Angeles. Welcome to you. As
I understand, you've previously been
involved in efforts to send Starlink
user terminals to activists and citizen
journalists in Iran. Could you tell us
why is Starlink so important for Iranian
As as you mentioned, we've been involved
in sending starlings to Iranian
activists and citizen journalists in
Iran because this is the only way to
stay connected with the individuals on
the ground and get the videos and images
of all these protests to outside Iran.
The Iranian government often wants to
crack down uh during a a full internet
shutdown because they can make sure that
the the international community is not
able to see those videos and images. But
these activists and citizen journalists
who are making these videos and who are
recording these videos on the streets,
they've been able to send these videos
to outside world and uh they have these
videos have been shared on social media
and with news agencies. So people have
been able to see to what extent uh
killings and crackdown has happened
inside Iran
>> and and you're saying basically it's
it's one of the few ways to ensure that
accurate reporting is is taking place in
regards to these protests. It seems
Starlink is itself being heavily
disrupted right now in Iran. If the
regime is behind this, what can be done
about that? How can it be countered?
That that's correct. Iranian government
has tried to jam this Starling signal in
major cities, but they haven't been uh
fully successful. A lot of the Starling
users I've been in touch with, they had
they reported the lower performance of
their devices, but overall they've been
able to use them and send the videos and
images. Um and uh from what we know,
Sterling company has tried to send a new
software update to improve the
performance and counter some of the
jamming that's been happening in in
Iran. And from what we hear, that update
has helped the users inside Iran.
>> Okay, Medi, as I understand, using
Starlink in in Iran is illegal. It can
lead to prison or even a death sentence.
Uh can it be used uh without being detected?
If it's hidden well and if the users are
careful not to go to the Iranian
websites inside the country and
primarily use it just to access
messengers and social media outside the
country. The risks are not that high,
but we have heard reports in the past
few days that Iranian government is
actually going and checking the roofs on
many buildings inside Tran trying to
find these uh stalling devices. And in
most cases, these devices get
confiscated, but there are cases that
people have been imprisoned and in some
cases they've been accused of being
spies because of using such devices.
We've been speaking to Medi Yayanad, a
tech entrepreneur, digital rights and
Iranian democracy activist. We really
appreciate your insights today. Thank
you so much for your time.
Click on any text or timestamp to jump to that moment in the video
Share:
Most transcripts ready in under 5 seconds
One-Click Copy125+ LanguagesSearch ContentJump to Timestamps
Paste YouTube URL
Enter any YouTube video link to get the full transcript
Transcript Extraction Form
Most transcripts ready in under 5 seconds
Get Our Chrome Extension
Get transcripts instantly without leaving YouTube. Install our Chrome extension for one-click access to any video's transcript directly on the watch page.
