Once close allies and pillars of regional stability, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are now experiencing a deepening rivalry, primarily driven by their divergent approaches to the conflict in Yemen, which has led to mistrust, competition, and concerns about potential armed conflict.
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Are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates potentially heading for war?
For many decades, the two countries were the closest of allies.
Facing shared threats, they came to be seen as pillars of regional stability.
However, in recent years, the relationship has soured.
Fighting in nearby Yemen has driven a wedge between the neighbors.
As a result, their relations today are now shaped by mistrust, competition,
and even proxy clashes, as a seemingly strong partnership has become a cold war.
But as their confrontation deepens, could this rivalry lead to an armed
conflict between two of the Gulf’s most powerful states?
Hello and welcome.
I’m James Ker-Lindsay, and here I take an informed look at international relations,
conflict, and security.
Regional rivalries are a common feature of international relations,
as neighbors vie for power or influence.
But while these tensions often have a lengthy
history, they can also develop gradually and unintentionally.
Countries with close connections and shared interests may find
themselves competing for economic resources or political control.
Sometimes this can escalate into indirect armed confrontations,
such as through insurgencies or proxy conflicts.
And in the most serious cases, it can even lead to war.
A good potential example is the growing tension between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
For decades, the two countries were seen as close allies.
However, that has all now changed.
The civil war in Yemen has seen them increasingly compete for regional control.
As a result, what was once a valuable friendship has turned into a complex rivalry,
raising concerns that they may even be headed for direct conflict.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia dominates the Arabian Peninsula, bordering seven
neighboring countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Yemen,
and with coastlines along the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.
It’s also one of the most populous nations in the region, with around 35 million inhabitants.
Coupled with its vast oil wealth and its status as the birthplace of Islam, Saudi Arabia has become
a significant actor in both the Middle East and more widely on the international stage.
Meanwhile, although the United Arab Emirates is far smaller,
both in size and population, it has also emerged as a powerhouse in recent years.
As well as its own oil resources, it’s become a global commercial,
financial, and transportation hub, and a significant political actor in its own right.
And it’s this that’s fueling the tensions we’re now seeing.
To understand the current situation,
we need to take a look back at the origins of the two countries.
Although the Arabian Peninsula was the birthplace of Islam in the 7th century,
for many hundreds of years political power was fragmented,
dominated by tribal groups and local rulers rather than a single state.
However, this began to change in the 18th century, when one of those groups, the House of Saud,
began to consolidate control, fusing political and spiritual authority.
This eventually led to the creation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932.
From the start, the country enjoyed significant regional power.
As well as controlling Islam’s holiest sites,
the discovery of oil gave the state immense economic and strategic importance.
Meanwhile, its close ties with Western powers,
particularly the United States, further strengthened its position.
In contrast, the territories that would later become the
United Arab Emirates took a very different path.
Once known as the Trucial States,
these small sheikhdoms had come under British protection in the 19th century.
While local rulers kept internal authority, London managed their defence and foreign affairs until
1971, when the UK withdrew and the states gained their independence under a federal structure.
From the start, relations between Saudi Arabia and the new United Arab Emirates were extremely close.
Saudi Arabia, as the dominant regional actor,
strongly supported the UAE during its early years, when it was still consolidating its statehood.
Meanwhile, in addition to sharing the same strategic priorities,
such as safeguarding Gulf security, protecting energy exports,
and maintaining strong ties with Western powers, particularly the United States,
they also shared concerns about regional instability and external interference.
As conservative Sunni monarchies, they worried about the growth of revolutionary ideologies,
such as Arab nationalism, Shia theocracy from Iran, and later political Islam.
As a result, within the Gulf Cooperation Council,
established in 1981, Saudi Arabia and the UAE often collaborated particularly
closely to coordinate economic, political, and security policies.
And while there were occasional disagreements,
including a border dispute, these did little to undermine their ties.
For much of the late 20th century, the UAE accepted Saudi Arabia’s regional leadership,
while Saudi Arabia viewed the Emirates as a reliable partner.
Indeed, the two countries enjoyed one of the closest
bilateral relationships in the Gulf region.
So, what exactly went wrong?
The roots of the current tensions emerged after the turn of the millennium.
Under a dynamic, outward-facing leadership, the UAE began diversifying its economy.
Cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi grew as international centres for finance,
trade, and tourism.
In contrast, Saudi Arabia remained heavily dependent on
oil revenues under a conservative hierarchy resistant to change.
Taken altogether, these differing approaches gradually introduced an element of competition.
While the two countries remained close partners, the growing differences in
their economic models and leadership styles quietly began to change the relationship,
laying the groundwork for what we see now.
Ultimately, though, the catalyst came from a very different source.
As the Arab Spring broke out in 2011 and protests
erupted across the Middle East, Yemen’s long-standing dictator was forced from power.
But any hopes for democracy and stability were short-lived.
Instead, an Iranian-aligned militia, the Houthis, seized control of the country’s capital in 2014.
Fearing the spread of Tehran’s Shia revolutionary influence, Saudi Arabia
and the UAE, alongside other Arab countries, stepped in, sending troops to fight in Yemen.
But despite their long-standing alliance,
the two countries had very different visions about their involvement in Yemen.
For its part, Saudi Arabia concentrated on defeating the Houthis,
stabilising the Yemeni government, and securing its border with the country.
In contrast, the UAE instead focused on controlling the strategic ports
and waterways of southern Yemen and building ties to local separatist groups,
many of which had little interest in restoring central authority.
While these tensions emerged fairly early on, it wasn’t until 2019 that the UAE openly began
supporting the Southern Transitional Council against the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.
Since then, tensions between the two countries have steadily escalated into a proxy conflict,
as UAE-backed southern forces have clashed with the Saudi-backed government and
political arrangements supported by one side have been undermined by the other.
And it’s all this that’s given rise to fears that the two countries may now be heading for war.
I hope you’re finding this helpful.
If so, please do give it a like and perhaps subscribe
for regular updates on international relations.
Thanks so much.
And now back to the video.
In late 2025, the Saudi–Emirati rift in Yemen sharpened dramatically.
The critical moment came as southern forces launched a surprise attack and
pushed into the strategically sensitive eastern areas near the Saudi border.
Seeing the advance as a direct challenge, Saudi forces helped the Yemeni government
retake the areas and struck a key southern port,
when an alleged weapons shipment had arrived, a claim the UAE rejected.
From there, the crisis deepened in early 2026,
when Saudi officials accused the UAE of helping the southern leader flee to
the Emirates rather than attend peace talks in the Saudi capital, Riyadh.
But while the UAE has since announced the withdrawal of its troops from Yemen,
citing the end of its counterterrorism operations, few believe that this will ease the situation.
Aside from likely controlling things from behind the scenes,
its absence on the ground could make Yemen even less secure,
as rival militias fight for control, thus making things even more difficult for Saudi Arabia.
In this sense, and paradoxically, many in fact see the Emirati withdrawal as a
worrying sign of growing tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
But while Yemen may have been the focal point for hostility,
it’s certainly not the only area where the two countries have been at odds.
The intense rivalry between the two countries has also been seen elsewhere in recent years.
For example, they found themselves on opposing sides in Sudan, Syria, and Somalia.
And it’s all this that’s been feeding growing concerns that the countries
could now be heading for some sort of direct confrontation.
But could this in fact really happen?
In truth, despite the growing tensions, a war seems highly unlikely.
For a start, both countries would suffer immense economic and political costs.
As well as shaking investor confidence and scaring off foreign residents,
years of carefully constructed development would then unravel.
While Saudi Arabia is focused on internal reform and long-term economic transformation,
the UAE’s prosperity depends on stability and openness.
In addition, there’s also the risk of drawing in external powers.
This could transform a bilateral conflict into a wider regional crisis.
And it’s all these factors that serve to create powerful incentives to manage the
rivalry rather than let it spiral out of control.
The trouble is, though, that these sorts of situations often have their own momentum.
The differences over Yemen have destroyed the previous spirit of cooperation and coordination.
As attitudes have hardened and trust has been undermined,
dialogue and compromise have become steadily more politically difficult.
In this sense, the danger perhaps doesn’t come from an intentional decision to go to war.
Instead, it comes from a gradual escalation driven by miscalculation, miscommunication,
and the belief that the other side will ultimately back down.
Nevertheless, for now, a full-scale conflict seems extremely unlikely.
The most probable scenario is not open war,
but instead a sustained strategic rivalry, marked by occasional crises,
uneasy coexistence, and efforts to de-escalate the situation when things become too heated.
External pressure, economic conditions, and mutual long-term interests all suggest that the two
countries will in fact pursue restraint, even if a reconciliation is at the moment difficult to see.
Ultimately, the story of Saudi–UAE relations is a valuable example of how two countries
that once had close cooperative ties are now left to navigate a complex,
competitive, and increasingly dangerous relationship.
The civil war in Yemen has not only undermined their partnership, but has
also raised deeper questions about the entire nature of leadership across the Gulf region.
The question now is whether these two countries can manage
this rivalry without crossing the line into open conflict.
I hope you found that useful.
If so, here are some more videos that you might find helpful.
Thanks so much for watching, and see you in the next video.
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