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#AEBF25 | Day 1 - Variable Renewable Energy Integration in Southeast Asia | ASEAN Centre for Energy | YouTubeToText
YouTube Transcript: #AEBF25 | Day 1 - Variable Renewable Energy Integration in Southeast Asia
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Core Theme
The transition to renewable energy (RE) in ASEAN nations requires significant investment in robust grid infrastructure and coordinated planning to overcome technical challenges, economic disruptions, and supply chain limitations, ensuring a sustainable and successful energy future.
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Hi, thank you. Uh good afternoon
distinguished guests and welcome to this
plenary session 5. Uh I'm Wayhan and
I'll be your moderator for this session.
Uh it's my pleasure to be joined by
three distinguished speakers. Uh first
up I would like to invite Dr. Wong Wqin.
Uh he's an independent electrical and
power engineering consultant with over
30 years of experience in Asia-Pacific
having held senior leadership roles in
Australian transmission marker operators
and even developers.
Uh next I would like to invite Mr. Jen
[music] Ming Chang. He is EDF's director
for new markets development in APEC
having led the market entry into
Australia and now doing the same for
And last but by no means least is Mr.
Jonathan Khan who is the co-founder and
managing director of ERS Energy uh
leading RE solutions provider in the
region and one of the early pioneers of
So uh today as the world pivots towards
sustainable green energy sources there's
been a market shift in energy
generation. We've moved from traditional
controlled stable predictable fossil
fuel generators to a complex combination
of more unpredictable uncontrollable
renewable energy technologies
technologies
most of which are extremely capex heavy
and have near zero marginal cost of generation.
generation.
So as Azia nations continue its RE
transition and push towards achieving
its RE targets, what are the key
enablers and considerations for nations
to ensure a sustainable and successful
transition and in particular how
important is the appropriate
infrastructure in enabling the this
transition and can the AEAN power grid
we've heard so much about this morning
be the key to fulfilling all three
aspects of the energy trillemma?
Please uh Dr. Wong.
>> Okay. Um firstly before I begin I'd like
to thank uh Gammuda for uh organizing
the session and for inviting myself to
share my perspectives. Um and also want
to thank the organizers of the
conference as well as distinguished
guests who have um basically stayed back
uh until this late session um for to
hear what we have to say. Now what I
want to do is to just frame um the scope
of this session uh by sharing my
perspectives. Now myself I've worked
about now coming to two decades of
integrating renewable energy in
Australia. uh and I've actually uh
participated in various roles which
includes power system planning, power
system operation, project development uh
as well as looking at issues both at the
transmission and distribution level and
also delivering the next generation of
enabling technologies to achieve
reliable and secure high renewable
integration. Now much of my work uh has
been undertaken in Australia and uh I
believe um some of you would um
recognize that Australia is often seen
as one of the leading case studies for
renewable integration at both
transmission utility scale as well as in
the distributed or now we call it
consumer energy resources. uh some of
the benchmarks you may be aware now
Australia as a nation currently is about
40% renewable by annual energy but there
are some jurisdictions in uh Australia
which achieves something like 80%
renewable penetration by annual energy
which suggests that there are now
frequent market intervals where
renewable penetration hits 100%. Some of
you may be aware uh of those um reports
put out by the market operator. And so
what I have been working on the past
decade is to look at what does the power
system need in terms of the next
generation of solutions at scale to
ensure we maintain supply reliability
and power system security while keeping
costs and economics viable. And I think
this is important because at the end of
the day, for example, as system
planners, we can specify requirements
for our grid. But however, if industry
and the private sector cannot deliver or
the supply chain cannot deliver on the
solutions you need at scale in volume in
a timely manner, then you cannot achieve
the required renewable penetration while
maintaining system reliability and
security. So I'd like to paint now uh
this uh focus on this session because
the previous session also talked about
renewable energy integration but
primarily from a utility perspective. So
hopefully we can complement that
excellent discussion in that session by
looking at what do we need from
technology integrators, technology
providers, the private sector developers
as well as broader supply chain considerations.
considerations.
So uh if you allow me just to therefore
uh define what are all the main buckets
on consideration. Now you have probably
heard this being covered but I'll
present it in a slightly different way
and particularly flavored by my uh
previous experiences working in the
Australian power system and energy
market. Now firstly technical
fundamentals. When we talk about future
and new renewable capacity often we are
specifically referring to solar and wind
resources which are power electronics
defined by software. Okay this is
different. Of course, there's also hydro
and nuclear, right? But those
technologies are primarily still based
on synchronous generation and so they
maintain the current power system
security philosophy. So therefore, you
don't need to change the way you plan
and operate your power system if you are
looking at hydro or even nuclear. But if
you're looking at wind and solar, these
are power electronics. The
characteristics are entirely defined by
software and this is a very different
technical characteristic compared to
synchronous machines. Synchronous
machines essentially deliver a broad
range of grid stabilization services
like frequency control, voltage control,
short circuit current or fault level
contribution as part of the package.
Right. All you need to do specify is the
megawatt capacity. Ensure you have the
gas or the coal or whatever fuel
to keep the plant running and you will
get grid stability automat sort of
inherently as part of the package. Not
so with wind and solar. Wind and solar
largely provide energy and the current
generation of wind and solar
inverterbased generation largely still
does not provide the same level of
ancillary services necessary to maintain
system security. Now frequency control
to some extent are being resolved. uh in
fact a previous presentation touched on
grid forming inverters or grid forming
batteries and um the first grid forming
battery was deployed uh in Australia in
2018. So that's 7 years ago now and in
fact now every new battery development
in Australia is grid forming and we are
quite close to now what would be seen as
a standard for grid forming battery
requirements in Australia. Uh so that is
uh uh the positive aspect but however
when it comes to other services for
example system strength uh in particular
shortcircuit current contribution now uh
inverter based resources largely cannot
provide that function economically.
Now it is possible for you to
overprovision inverter capacity but the
experience in most jurisdictions shows
that such a project or such a
configuration is not economic is not
viable to invest in a lot of inverter
capability that's only used for a few
hundred milliseconds per disturbance. So
I think the reality here we need to
accept is that it's not just about the
technical requirements of maintaining or
integrating renewables very much is
often the cost and also supply chain.
One comment I to make is uh is regarding
some of the alternate technologies. Now
in Australia right now we maintain grid
system strength and fault level
primarily now through deployment of
synchronous condensers. So some of you
may be aware for example in New South
Wales the transmission network service
provider trans grid has now made a
decision that synchronous condensers
rather than grid forming batteries are
the only dependable option for system
strength and so they have specified that
they will invest in at least 20
synchronous condensers going forward.
Now one of the issues we are now finding
is that the order book for synchronous
condensers is at least 5 years in
advance. So if you order a synchronous
condenser today, it will not be
delivered before 2030. So in the
meantime, what do you do then if you
have an emerging grid stability issue
over the next three years? That's a bit
of a predicament. And so this is some of
the considerations on the supply chain
in particular cost and timelines that
you need to take uh to consider. Now the
other aspect is a fundamental shift in
the economics of uh VR based grid. Now
the the good thing but also a challenge
with wind and solar essentially wind and
sunshine is free. So there's no fuel
cost. So in other words, there is a zero
shortrun marginal cost which is often
touted as an advantage. However, most of
of our electricity sport markets are the
pricing is indexed or referenced against
really the shortrun marginal cost of
dispatch. Right? So we have seen in
jurisdictions therefore with high VR
wind and solar that therefore your spot
price goes to zero and that reflects the
zero or near zero shortrun marginal cost
of wind and solar. Now that is a
significant disruption to the revenue
model and therefore the business case
for certainly legacy plant and this is
the factor that has triggered the
premature mothballing of fossil fuel
generation in Australia because they
just can't compete with zero marginal
cost generation shortrun marginal cost
generation and they are also relatively
inflexible right steam turbines for
example typically need four to six hours
turn up or turn down. And so that
inflexibility means that the only
solution is to morph ball or retire
because you just can't run economically.
And so and not to mention lastly the
point is that
uh solar and wind investments are very
heavy on capex which means that now the
methodology for modeling the e economic
viability has to be made on the entire
life cycle of the asset which means you
have to make some very significant assumptions
assumptions
about what is your revenue model and
what is the mark if it's electricity
market what that market will behave like
over the entire example 20 year life of
a battery. So this is very different
from existing fossil fuel gas and coal
generation because a significant
component of your cost is fuel cost and
you can still continually manage that
through hedging contracts for your gas
and coal supply but you can't do that
for wind and solar. There's no cost to
hedge against future wind and solar
pricing because the cost is zero. All
right. So therefore when we do even
techn technical power system planning we
need to therefore consider also the
economic and commercial side of the
equation because that is what enables
the planned capacity to be delivered.
otherwise will have no capacity
delivered which is a predicament that
AMO has flagged in his latest um
electric uh electricity statement of
opportunities report where AMO qualified
that Australia's ability to meet the 43%
emissions reduction target is now
contingent on a timely
commissioning of new VR capacity and
these are the factors which are now
actually causing delays. We are
observing that in projects.
>> Okay. Thank you Dr. Wong for that uh
very insightful explanation about grid
planning. Maybe to hear from Jonathan
and Jenming the developer and EPC
perspective. Uh how important really is
understanding the infrastructure
availability and expansion road maps uh
to you know investing and promoting the
re industry.
>> Maybe maybe I start first. So so thanks
um and uh Dr. one can certainly relate
to all the challenges that they faced in
Australia which is also causing a fair
bit of frustration also um I think there
are a lot of valuable lessons that you
can actually extract and to look at the
market that we are in here as an example
there were a lot of talks around systems
planning coordinated planning I think at
the end of the day what we're trying to
do is to drive best value for consumer
if you're able to coordinate a
transmission network built out to
connect to places where there are wind
and solar resources which fundamentally
doesn't have any connections. Anyway,
that is effectively what energy co is
doing in New South Wales just to kind of
go back to the example of what Dr. Wong
is saying and in that particular case
giving the the right guarantees having
the right coordination allows to drive
investors confidence as well and that is
important because from an EDF
perspective for those those of you who
don't know we are EDF power solutions it
is a subsidiary of EDF group or probably
better known as the nuclear producer of
the world 100% owned by the French state
in my opinion I think that renewables
for transition is already a mature
technology but that I'll leave it to uh
Jonathan to address further but I feel
that you solve one problem but you
create another which is what Dr. Wong
has been suggesting a lot in terms of
grid instability.
Hence, what is what is the solution
behind this? My personal experience in
Australia is that I've looked at every
single data room of Palm Hydro
acquisition in Australia. I think the
reality here that we understand is that
Palm Hydro with all due respect is not
building solar or wind. It is an asset
class that requires long gestation, long
lead items that has been discussed as
well. So if you kind of categorically
split these two up together what we have
to understand here is that the system
planning part plays an important role
and in that particular case what what
then what that makes sense we we we have
looked at as mentioned all the data room
we have actually rejected more advanced
projects just because the design weren't
right just because the contractors
weren't right because going for the more
advanced project on paper doesn't mean
that it can be delivered failing to get
delivered means that you won't have the
right system to integrate all these
variable renewables to ensure what the
topic was which is a just smooth
>> Okay. Uh thanks Jaming and Dr. Wong. So
to add on to that I think what the key
enablers are for for us to have a
successful IE transition. I think again
uh just to reemphasize grid
infrastructure and capacity. Um there is
a data point that 80% of delayed
renewable energy projects uh in the
world uh globally is because of um grid
connection issues. So I think um having
the grid there is an investment that
needs to be made like we were chatting
earlier that it's a you need to build
the highway first before you put the
vehicles on the road. So I think uh
greater infrastructure is the key
component. Of course. Then um I think
governments uh and especially in ASEAN
uh if we could get together and do more
technical and regional grid coordination
I think would significantly uh allow us
to have a better uh renewable energy
transition because uh there is also if
that if we
were to have ASEAN as a single grid
connected entity we would be the fourth
largest electricity consumer in the
world. So, uh I think there is uh a lot
of positive and benefits uh that we can
come together and and build a very
strong um grid in ASEAN that is powered
mostly by renewables.
>> Thank you. Thank you Jing and Jonathan.
So having heard the importance or the
gravitas of having robust grid
infrastructure and clear guidance for
system expansion, uh what are some key
lessons that Azan or Malaysia even could
perhaps take from other more developed
countries in expanding their grid
infrastructure in building out their re
All right, some of the lessons learned.
Um I think at the moment
now Australia is at a stage where the
existing grid infrastructure can no
longer provide sufficient hosting
capacity for the amount of re that
Australia needs to take it beyond the
current 40%. And so you may have heard
of some of the ma major uh transmission
augmentation projects. Uh now one of the
projects I was um involved in in the
early stages was the project energy
connect which is an interconnector
between South Australia and New South
Wales. Um that one is an interesting
case study because originally that
interconnector is meant to cause to to
cost a total of Australian 1.9 billion
and was supposed to be operational by 2023.
2023.
So unfortunately now the cost on that
project has now increased to 4.1 billion
more than doubled and has now the latest
commissioning date has been pushed back
to end 2026 potentially early 2027.
So one of the learnings now we see is
that now the re uptake in Australia is
now challenged because of the speed that
we can deliver the necessary
transmission upgrades. Now what are some
of the factors here? I think um one of
the general issues that as a nation that
Australia is now struggling with is
productivity. So this is economicwide.
is not just about the power industry uh
but it's certainly manifesting itself in
terms of increased costs and delays in
power projects and so I think one of the
lessons that ASEAN can take from at
least from Australia's recent experience
in transmission projects firstly is make
sure that you get the cost part right
cost control is essential and in a
course of project delivery your project
governance and project control is very
very important. That's the first aspect
here. Um another aspect we also found is
in some sectors for example in pump
hydro now pump hydro the last major
projects in Australia were completed in
the early 1980s
and until the the recent the latest
project which is Snowy 2.0. I'm sure
some of you have heard of that. That
means 40 years have passed since the
last projects were delivered. And so
what's happened is that generation of
expertise, the engineers from the
original snowy projects have now retired
and left the industry. And so when
Australia tried to resume its
development in hydro, we found that we
actually lack the right experiences and
skill sets because they no longer exist.
And that is one of the reasons I believe
why we are seeing the issues that snowy
2.0 is experiencing right now. There are
number of other issues actually but we
won't go into that in too detail. So the
lesson therefore here for Assean is that
to ensure the upskilling the human
resource both in terms of the
appropriate skills they need as well as
to make sure the quantities are
available to drive your transmission or
grid uh infrastructure upgrades. Now
what is fit for purpose? Now this
there's no single answer to that. Every
country will have its own unique power
grid configuration. You have your own
unique social economic context and you
will of course have different fuel
resources. Some countries will be richer
or most countries will be richer in
solar but some may have additionally
access to viable wind as well as hydro.
And so therefore you need to make the
call therefore on the right technologies
of which you will need capacity in terms
of the manpower and the skills that you
need in order to ensure that this this
is actually part of that supply chain
issue. The supply chain is not just
about equipment. It's not just about um
transmission infrastructure but on the
people the human resource needed to
deliver on those upgrades and therefore
the energy transition
>> may thank you Dr. Wong and maybe Jenming
and John given your international
exposure uh where what are some good
lessons you have learned from
international markets uh in promoting
ARI growth and making sure that uh the
growth in AR ties together with the
buildout of infrastructure. Maybe I can
go first on this also. I think I think
we have all recognized that transmission
is always consistently the problem and
and in fact it is now being put in such
a situation where we are facing
knee-jerk reactions where people don't
want to inject high capacity or rather
low capacity factor generation into the
grid and they are forcing um on one side
the supply side to build batteries to
increase the capacity factor and on the
other side the high load demand
customers are also being forced and
turned away from the grid because
they're consuming so much power that
they are draining capacity from the grid
that could that could potentially cause
blackout. So now you have two different
sides of equation on on the demand side
people are going to build micro grids on
their own on the supply side people are
trying to colllocate solar plus battery.
I'm not saying that's a bad thing but
that's the status of reality but when
you start to propagate all this is that
really the best use of system or
actually we can say that we can actually
have a little bit more foresight to plan
a little bit more of a long duration
storage and the world that we live in
this part of the world it's just not
much wind it's a lot of solar so it's
not difficult to kind of time the
duration of storage you need to shift so
with all this system planning and proper
planning in place actually you can drive
a lot more investors confidence without
having the curtailment and guarantee
some dispatch and even drive the load
center on the other side.
>> Yep. Um well for me um with the Aries
energy we've done uh utility scale
projects in uh Malaysia, Philippines,
Vietnam and now starting in Australia.
So um some of the lessons we've learned
Dr. Wong has covered Australia. Uh fair
enough. But I think in the Philippines
we do get speed uh in terms of approvals
to deploy utility scale projects. Um but
the grid planning side we have to work
with NGCP and that we do see some um
pros and cons as as compared to
Australia where in Australia you do take
at least 12 to 24 months to develop a
project just for grid approval whereas
in the Philippines you get can get it in
6 months. So what I see from an EPC
point of view in in in this part of the
world is that we need to balance speed
with uh stability. Um, this is where I
need to commend uh Malaysia, the
government uh energy commission and
TMBB. We've been doing it slow and
steady. Um, rolling out renewable
energy, making sure we have the right
talent pool to do it. And, uh, I think
there there needs to be a good lesson
because when we went to Vietnam, we did
the fit out uh, together with the the
the rest of them, 3 gigawatts in 2018
and, uh, during COVID there was between
30 to 50% contailment. Um so again great
great readiness. One of the other
lessons we could learn uh is in Europe I
think it was it Denmark um as uh DT uh
Sarro from TMBB just now was saying
relationships Denmark used its neighbors
as a um battery storage. um they linked
up their grid with Norway and you know
the other European countries uh so that
they would stabilize um their their
renewable energy penetration into their
own grid together with their neighbors
and they would share and I think this
this could be a good direction for ASEAN
to to work towards.
>> Thank you John. And um I think following
on from that you know what what would be
the impact of uh poor system planning or
not ensuring the appropriate
infrastructure is in place uh before the
re industry grows its installed capacity
and can the ASAM power grid be a
solution to that?
>> Yep. So I think on the topic of uh power
system planning uh I think uh the the
challenge here is you have to reook at
what fitness for purpose power system
planning really means when you are
dealing with integrating re where the
technology is still evolving. So have
you seen again the example that
inverterbased resources are now moving
from the previous uh dependence or
dominance of grid following generation
to now increasingly looking at grid
forming technology to try to backfill
some of that grid stability services
that that were the deficit that has
emerged as you retire legacy synchronous
generation. Now this means that now the
fitness for purpose in power system
planning is not a function of just your
understanding of your transmission
network. It now is closely coupled to
the availability of the technology that
will deliver the next generation of
great reliability and stability services
that you will need in order to maintain
your supply reliability and security.
Now this means that power system
planners now cannot work in isolation.
You have to work very closely with the
generation and also the network support
technology providers and developers.
These are another category. So um grid
forming batteries is a very good example
of that because the initial grid forming
batteries in fact at this point there
are no universal global standard on what
is a grid forming battery. What are the
functionality required? Right? Unlike
for example a gas turbine synchronous
generator, you can buy one from almost
any OE that will be compliant to any
grid code that currently exists. Not so
for example for grid forming inverters.
And so the challenge here for power
system planner is that now you really
need to engage the technology supply
chain ultimately to see what are the
options available today. What are the
options that are going to be available
in the next uh near term five say 5
years but more importantly are they
available in the right scale or quantity
given that most jurisdictions are
planning to integrate gaw solar and wind
over the five next five or 10 years. So
there is therefore this in in in summary
uh fitforpurpose system planning now has
to be a lot more holistic. You need to
consider all aspects of the grid and not
just the transmission poles and w and
distribution poles and wires but
certainly on the generation side as well
to the degree that perhaps it never
needed to consider under the previous
planning approach.
>> Thank you Dr. Wong. And maybe uh John I
think you touched earlier on capacity uh
cailment uh and I think Jenming as well
maybe it's a developers perspective on
the potential impacts of poor
infrastructure planning.
>> Yeah sure I'll take it first.
>> Yeah. So I think just quickly on this
would be yeah if if we don't invest in
the grid early uh we would have a lot of
stranded assets. So I think it's
critical um that that these come in as I
mentioned earlier on fitting out too
fast too quickly and then you'll have
cailment on these plants. So um is it
isn't just about cables uh at the end of
the day for for this. It's also about
confidence contracts and and stability
of the grid. So I think we must invest
in it.
>> I like the example that Jonathan gave
earlier about Denmark relying on Norway.
Um and another quote that I'll give of
Steve Jobs that you can sometimes only
connect the dots looking backwards. And
this particular case EDF in France did
not build Palm Hydro to service the
excess solar that comes out of Spain
from day one. It actually built Palm
Hydro to service all the nuclear power
plant fleets that it has for safety
purposes and reasons and now it becomes
such an incredible asset for us to
balance the entire system uh in Europe
because they share the same fiscal
system. And back to our region here more
often than not you have some hydro
assets out in Sarowak or in Laos you
have a lot of solar in this region. How
do we connect? I think it's about the
baby steps for us to take and once we
get there and you need obviously
experienced infrastructure developer um
us inclusive among others people who are
capable of building it to be able to
deliver those assets on time and I think
that's one of the most important thing
that uh we all we all we all share today
>> yeah uh maybe if I can jump in again
here wayhan because um I just want to u
add another aspect on the power system
planning u what kind of call
reform or improvements we need. Now,
power system planners generally do their
work in order to comply with the
regulation of the Greek code. Uh most
national grid codes include requirements
of for power system security and
reliability embedded in the Greek code.
And so I need to highlight now that
again with the rapid evolution of
generation technology in the inverter
generation space, the grid code need to
keep pace with the change. And so
therefore there need to be um a kind of
a quick and efficient Greek code review
process in to ensure that the Greek
codes remain current. Now just to give
you an example when I started in
Australia nearly 20 years ago you
probably get a new version of the grid
code or we call the Australian national
electricity rules probably one new
version every year but today for the
last I would say seven to eight years we
get a new version every month every
month there's a new version the original
Australian Greek code was about 300
pages now it's or 3,000 pages. Okay,
this is an example of how quickly your
grid code need to change to adapt to
keep pace with the changes not just in
technology but in your market and your
generation makes and secondly it's also
an indication of how complex the
requirements have become that now your
Greek code has become 10 times as you
know as as long essentially so the
message here I'd like to convey
therefore is more to the regular
regulators that the regulators now also
need to ensure that their process uh
basically also fit for purpose
particularly to keep up with a fast
evolving power system and fast evolving
technology uh development that's going
on especially in inverterbased generation.
generation.
>> Thank you Dr. Wong. Uh it sounds like
there's a lot of coordination which is
required for this Asian power grid to
work. uh maybe in the interest of time
uh what would be the one key takeaway
you would want to uh you know provide
the audience for this session?
>> Yep. Sorry. Uh can you repeat the
question way because echo yeah
>> just as uh in the interest of time to
close off the session what would be one
key takeaway you would like to give the
audience for this session? Uh yeah, I
think the probably the one key takeaway
is that um now whilst there are now a
number of uh case study examples that
countries in ASEAN can reference and
there are ample examples I I've been
talking about Australia but I also need
to add there are plenty of yearing uh
learnings from Europe from jurisdictions
like Germany, Northern Ireland, Great
Britain particularly say in offshore
wind for example even in the United
States that you can reference
However, ultimately you have your own
country, your own unique technical,
social, economic context and definitely
therefore you cannot just take a cut and
paste approach. But what you need to do
is really to take the building block
learnings from other jurisdictions but
create your own very unique solution,
your own very unique recipe to attain
the economic
and sustainable renewable integration
including any interconnection between
the countries. So I think in other words
own own your own journey define your own
journey because it will be uniquely
yourself but do draw on the general
learnings from elsewhere internationally.
internationally.
Final final two points is really um just
to echo Dr. Wong's point is while there
are a lot of learnings that we can take
internationally um the key point is
there's no need to reinvent the wheel if
we don't have to. And last but not least
within the region um we are not European
Union. We are trying I mean even
Australia itself is very fragmented in
its own rights in this region is about
building trust starting one of the first
projects and that really starts to
unlock a lot more potential.
>> Yeah. So for me [clears throat] is I I
guess uh renewable energy in ASEAN I
think if we get it right um it's not
just about renewable energy but it's
actually about regional prosperity for everybody.
everybody.
Thank you very much. Uh maybe any
If not, we'll close the session.
Thank you.
>> Thank you so much, Dr. Wong, Jenming,
Jonathan, as well as our moderator for
this panel, Wei Han. That was very
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