0:03 NFL week seven is upon us. We've got
0:06 four prime time games for your viewing
0:08 pleasure. We've got Barking Dogs. We've
0:11 got the Steam Report like you would see
0:15 on Sundays with VR. And of course, the
0:18 Deli still has not been condemned. So,
0:20 Marco is going to keep it up and
0:24 running. 18 and 11. That is 62% on the
0:25 season. And then we're going to follow
0:43 [Music]
0:45 Kelly Stewart here, Marco D'Angelo,
0:47 Yanni the Greek, and we are going to get
0:49 right into these prime time games. I'm
0:51 going to go first because I've got
0:53 Thursday night football. The Pittsburgh
0:55 Steelers are five and a half point
0:58 favorites at Cincinnati. Total 42 and a
1:00 half. And we all know how much I love
1:02 those prime time home dogs catching five
1:04 and a half. But before I get into that,
1:05 I'm going to tell you about the
1:07 Pittsburgh Steelers who have won and
1:10 covered their last three games. And hey,
1:12 I know a lot of respected people who bet
1:14 the Browns last week. I could not
1:17 stomach it. But the Steelers dominated
1:19 again. And that was kind of surprising
1:21 to me because Steelers have not been a
1:23 great bet under Mike Tomlin as a
1:25 favorite. from our friends at the gold
1:27 sheet. When favored by at least four
1:30 points, the Steelers are 1326-1 against
1:33 the spread. That is 33.3%
1:35 since 2017. You know what Tomman does
1:37 really well? He owns rookie
1:40 quarterbacks, but veteran quarterbacks,
1:43 maybe one's named Joe Flacco, one
1:45 weekend for him there in Cincinnati. And
1:48 hey, he had a respectable effort there
1:51 on offense. 12 targets for Jamar. 10 of
1:52 his 12 targets, excuse me, went to Jamar
1:55 Chase. Two of them got on the same page
1:57 early and I think that gives us hope to
2:00 trust the rest of this Bengals offense.
2:02 I do not trust the Steelers here in this
2:05 spot. I can only take the five and a
2:09 half with the prime time home dog. Give
2:12 me the Bengals. I know that sounds
2:15 absolutely wild to say. Just peep Mike
2:17 Tomlin's Thursday Night Football record.
2:19 That's a little homework for you guys
2:22 there in the comment section. Marco D'Angelo.
2:24 D'Angelo.
2:26 Sunday Night Football. The Atlanta
2:29 Falcons off a nice win there on Monday
2:31 night are a three and a half point dog
2:33 headed into San Francisco and the total
2:36 is 45 a half.
2:38 >> Yeah, Kelly. Uh, no team's been hit
2:40 harder with injuries than the 49ers have
2:42 been this year. And now they lose uh
2:45 heart and soul on the defense. Fred
2:47 Warner uh last week, that is a big blow
2:50 to the defense. But, you know, even with
2:52 that, and he went out early in the game,
2:54 San Francisco played well enough to win
2:56 last week if it wasn't for a couple
2:59 costly turnovers and just an amazing
3:01 Baker Mayfield. And I enjoyed that game
3:03 because that was my 5% last week at
3:05 Tampa Bay coming home. But it wasn't
3:08 easy for him. M. Jones has played well.
3:11 Um, last three games he's thrown for
3:15 306, 333, and 296. Uh, he's getting the
3:19 job done. in Atlanta. Well, plain and
3:20 simple, they're in a horrible scheduling
3:22 spot. They played a rare Monday Night
3:25 Football game. Even rarer, it was a home
3:28 Monday Night Football game and they were
3:30 hosting one of the powerhouses in the
3:33 AFC and they beat the Buffalo Bills
3:35 outright. Does this scenario sound
3:38 familiar? Didn't just two weeks ago,
3:40 didn't Jacksonville do the same thing on
3:42 Monday Night Football? They upset the
3:44 Chiefs. What happened to them? Yeah,
3:47 they laid an egg the very next week
3:50 against Seattle. Uh game that we were on
3:52 right here on the show with Seattle.
3:54 Well, you know what? It ain't broke.
3:56 Don't fix it. Going to do the same
3:58 thing. I'm going against Atlanta off of
4:00 their big win on Monday Night Football.
4:03 Now they've got to travel cross country
4:06 on a short week. Totally uh bad
4:08 scheduling spot. You've got a young
4:11 quarterback in Michael Pennix Jr. coming
4:13 off a big win and traveling on the road.
4:16 This 49er team, one thing you can always
4:18 say about them, they always show up.
4:20 Doesn't matter who gets hurt, it's next
4:22 man up. We saw what they did on that
4:25 Thursday night game against the Rams and
4:27 part of last week's handicap for me of
4:31 going against the 49ers was because of
4:33 that Thursday night win. That was a big
4:35 win for them and they were playing a
4:37 second week in a row on the road. Now
4:39 they're back at home. Let's go with the 49ers.
4:41 49ers.
4:44 I got them winning this one 27 to 20.
4:46 Take 49ers lay the points on Sunday night.
4:47 night.
4:49 >> Okay, we have another double header on
4:53 Monday Night Football. VR Tampa headed
4:55 to Detroit as a 4 and a half point
4:58 underdog. Total 52 and a half.
5:00 >> Got to look to the favorite here.
5:03 Detroit Lions moving in their direction
5:05 and I agree with the move. Um bottom
5:07 line, they're coming off a a a tough
5:11 loss at Kansas City. Um losing that game
5:13 by almost two touchdowns. I think they
5:17 bounce back here. Um I mean the what's
5:19 it called? The when I look real quickly
5:20 when I look at Detroit, they're the best
5:22 team in the NFL power rating wise right
5:27 now. Um, perfect example of of uh a
5:30 team, right, coming off of a
5:33 high-profile prime time game,
5:36 being almost embarrassed and now prime
5:39 time once again, but this time at home
5:41 where they have a strong home field
5:42 advantage. They've been dominant there
5:44 if you look at their point differential
5:46 splits between what they've done at home
5:48 and what they've done on the road. Flip
5:50 side of that, it's the perfect storm.
5:52 You look at Tampa Bay, they're a 3-0
5:54 road team right now in the NFL. Very
5:57 difficult to do win on the road in the
6:00 NFL. Well, they're perfect there. But if
6:02 you look at their point differential on
6:06 the road, it's seven. So, three coin
6:08 flip games that they got the best of.
6:12 That luck runs out. Very hard to keep
6:14 winning those one-sore games. A lot of
6:17 luck has to go your way. And as good as
6:20 Baker Mayfield appears to be playing,
6:22 the bottom line is he's still below
6:25 league average in passing success rate.
6:28 On the flip side, I have Goff who's
6:31 number two sitting at passing success
6:34 rate. Again, we knew Detroit wasn't
6:36 going to coast through this year like
6:38 they have the last few seasons because
6:40 of the disruption. Offensive
6:42 coordinator, defensive coordinator, but
6:45 they are still the number one team in
6:47 the NFL, number one power rated team in
6:49 the NFL. They're the number one offense
6:52 in the NFL. They've already played a top
6:56 10 schedule. And I think it's a a a good
6:59 spot for them to bounce back at home
7:03 prime time, shake that uh loss off, and
7:06 they have a buy coming up the following
7:08 week. So, sets up perfectly. You want to
7:11 head into that buy off a win. You're
7:13 going to get a motivated Detroit team
7:15 against a little overvalued Tampa Bay
7:18 team. Lay the points. Anything less than
7:20 a touchdown, Detroit's the right side.
7:22 >> All right.
7:25 Not a Baker believer VR and I kind of
7:28 don't blame him. That one looks a little
7:30 tricky. Another one that I think is a
7:32 little interesting here. Houston is a
7:34 three and a half point underdog at
7:37 Seattle. Low total here 40 and a half.
7:39 And the reason why I say it looks tricky
7:42 is because after starting 0 and3 the
7:43 Texans have gotten healthier, right?
7:45 They've got back-to-back wins. Except
7:48 those teams are the Titans and a
7:51 decimated Ravens team. Seattle, on the
7:53 other hand, picked up another nice road
7:55 win at Jacksonville. And while they seem
7:57 to be better on the road than they are
7:59 at home, they still are 4- one straight
8:02 up and against the spread this season.
8:05 And that lone loss versus Tampa Bay
8:08 probably arguably could have went either
8:11 way. And that was the weird week for
8:13 them defensively. What did they do last
8:15 week in Jacksonville? They finished with
8:18 a plus 2.4 yards per play differential.
8:21 And Trevor Lawrence was sacked seven
8:25 times. Sam Darnold, hand up, probably
8:27 owe you an apology. He has only thrown
8:30 one interception his last four games.
8:33 And guess what? Sits in the top three in
8:35 leagues in the league in passing yards,
8:37 yards per attempt, passer rating, and
8:40 QBR. Who would have guessed that? Now,
8:42 the one thing that isn't going for
8:44 Seattle is they're returning from a
8:47 cross-country road trip being played
8:50 late on a Monday night there. That's the
8:52 good news. They have that extra day of
8:54 rest to get healthy. So, don't buy into
8:59 too much of that travel fatigue. Seattle
9:01 with five straight Monday night football
9:05 wins and I think they make this one six.
9:06 You guys are looking to watch Bet on it
9:09 early, you guys can join the wager talk
9:12 insiders, wt.buzzinssiders.
9:13 You guys are going to get early access,
9:17 not only bet on it, the deli TNA, of
9:18 course, you guys are going to get access
9:19 to the steam room and we're going to
9:22 start working on more things for our
9:26 loyal viewers. Right now, $2.99 cents a
9:29 month to become a wager talk insider.
9:31 You also are going to get access on
9:33 occasion to VR's steam room. And that's
9:36 what this segment is. It is a look into
9:38 what the wise guys are playing early on
9:40 in the week. And then we will talk about
9:42 it more on Sunday with him and Ariel Epste.
9:44 Epste.
9:45 >> And what you want to make sure you're
9:47 paying attention to when it comes to the
9:50 NFL line moves is what was the look
9:54 ahead. Cuz right now you can already bet
9:56 the games two weeks from now. Not this
9:58 Sunday's games, the following games. and
10:00 they're already getting some action. Um,
10:02 and the key is, is there follow through
10:04 after that or is it just taking
10:06 advantage of the look ahead? Here's some
10:09 of the NFL for you. Start off with the
10:11 Thursday night game. Pittsburgh
10:13 Steelers. They laid three and a half,
10:15 lay four and four and a half on the
10:19 Steelers. Move into Sunday's action.
10:22 London game under money right away. The
10:24 look ahead was 46 and a half. Went to
10:26 46. They hit that under. hit under 45
10:28 and a half as well. We saw follow
10:31 through with Kansas City opened 10 and a
10:33 half was the look ahead. They laid it
10:38 then laid 11 as well. Also, the Patriots
10:40 opened the look ahead at six that got
10:42 some money and then at 6 and a half they
10:44 got hit as well. That's why you're
10:46 looking at them at that key number right
10:50 now. 463 Carolina at a pickum. That was
10:52 it. Just the look ahead got bet. And
10:55 then the under 43 and 42 and a half. And
10:58 finally, Monday Night Football. Detroit
10:59 look ahead at minus four and a half.
11:01 Then got hit at minus five when it
11:03 opened. And Seattle the look ahead at
11:06 minus three. Even money got hit but
11:08 nothing since then. Little early in the
11:10 week yet for NFL, but that's what we got
11:13 so far. And like Kelly said, last call
11:16 on Sunday. Steam rooms as well. We'll uh
11:19 up to date up to the minute information
11:21 heading your way. All right, let's get
11:24 into those barking dogs. And uh just
11:26 bring in the comments now. I can hear
11:28 it. Marco and I have the smallest
11:30 barking dogs.
11:34 It is what it is. Listen, this is a
11:37 crappy NFL week. It just is. And and I'm
11:39 we're going to own it. So go ahead, say
11:41 what you want to say in the comments.
11:44 Marco, tell me why you like the Jets.
11:46 >> Yeah, you got to hold your nose with
11:48 this one. But uh we're going to look at
11:50 and it's more going against Carolina.
11:52 Carolina took advantage of a poor Dallas
11:55 defense last week who was playing their
11:57 second of back-to-back road games which
11:59 happened to follow that big Monday night
12:01 or Sunday night I should say game that
12:03 they had against the Green Bay Packers.
12:06 It was just the right spot last week to
12:09 go against Dallas and take Carolina. Now
12:11 the Jets do have to return from London.
12:14 Uh they played last week. It was an ugly
12:16 game for them. Normally, I would look to
12:18 fade a team in a travel spot like this
12:21 because usually the teams that play uh
12:24 overseas get their by-week the following
12:26 week, but that's not the case here. And
12:29 we've got a winless Jets team. When
12:31 you're a winless team, the pressure is
12:33 on you to try to get that first win. So,
12:35 you're not going to take any weeks off.
12:37 So, I know the Jets are going to show
12:39 up. That sometimes is a problem because
12:42 the team that shows up is not very good.
12:44 But we've got to play the spot here in
12:47 Carolina. I just don't trust them uh
12:50 defensively. And I know the Jets have
12:51 had their problems and the problems have
12:55 come from one Justin Fields. Um last
12:57 week, I mean, he set the football world
13:00 back decades. That was probably one of
13:02 the worst quarterback performances
13:04 you've seen. He actually finished the
13:07 game with negative net passing yards. I
13:08 don't know that, and I've been doing
13:10 this a long time. I don't know that I
13:13 can remember that ever happening, but he
13:15 did it last week. I expect him to have a
13:17 better game this week. You can't have a
13:20 worse game, that's for sure. Jets get
13:22 their first win in this one. Again,
13:24 sometimes you just got to trust the
13:27 process and the process in this one is
13:29 that we're going against Carolina.
13:31 There's no world that Carolina should be
13:34 a road favorite in, even against the bad
13:35 Jets. We're going to go ahead take the
13:38 Jets, get their first win of the season.
13:40 So, it's only plus one and a half. So,
13:43 definitely moneyline sprinkle there as
13:46 well because we know in the NFL, Kelly,
13:48 games never fall at one. >> Never.
13:48 >> Never.
13:49 >> Saying that sarcastically,
13:51 >> unless unless you are the Chicago Bears
13:55 and you do it in back-to-back games, VR,
13:57 uh, let's just talk about it. This is
14:01 kind of a crazy one. I know I'm not
14:02 going to lay points with Mike Greybel on
14:05 the road, but should people looking to
14:09 take the Patriots in Survivor be extra
14:10 careful this week?
14:13 >> Absolutely. I don't care. Wise guys,
14:15 schmise guys. I know they're on New
14:18 England and I I it doesn't bother me one
14:20 bit because now I'm getting a touchdown
14:22 thanks to them laying that six on New
14:24 England and that's a little bit too many
14:26 points to give this Tennessee team.
14:28 Listen, I know Tennessee is arguably the
14:31 worst team in the NFL, but they should
14:32 be the worst team in the NFL because
14:36 they've had the toughest schedule in all
14:39 of the NFL. Number one toughest schedule
14:43 so far this year has been Tennessee. The
14:45 30th toughest schedule has been the New
14:48 England Patriots. They've had a really
14:51 easy go of it so far. So, not surprising
14:54 they're sitting at plus 30 in point
14:56 differential, 4-2, top of their
15:01 division. Easy, easy schedule so far.
15:03 You're looking at Drake May, third right
15:05 now in passing efficiency. He's the
15:08 number three pick in the 2024 draft. I
15:11 get it. He's expected to be a stud, but
15:13 he's not a top five passing efficiency
15:16 guy just yet. That number will start to
15:19 regress towards the mean. Rest assured,
15:22 his passing efficiency success rate will
15:24 not end up better than Stafford,
15:28 Mahomes, Love, Darnold, Jackson, Jones,
15:30 Allen. He's all above them right now.
15:32 That's not going to continue. It's
15:34 because they've had the 30th, easiest
15:36 schedule. I like Tennessee catching a
15:39 lot of points at home. Again, they've
15:41 had the going to keep repeating it, the
15:43 toughest schedule. So, they've looked
15:47 bad. It'll get easier for them again.
15:50 May could only regress towards the mean.
15:53 As as bad as Tennessee has looked, they
15:55 can only progress towards the mean, I
15:57 think, as the schedule gets a little bit
16:00 easier. Give me the touchdown. Fade the
16:04 wise guys. Sprinkle the money line.
16:05 Don't be surprised if New England gets
16:07 the loss. All this varable returning
16:10 nonsense, that's adding an extra point
16:12 or a half at least. So, give me
16:14 Tennessee. Worst team in
16:17 >> All right, the Titans. Oh boy. I mean,
16:19 listen, for a Survivor perspective, I
16:21 hope that happens because I would not be
16:24 caught dead using the Patriots this
16:25 week, but I have a feeling a lot of
16:26 people are going to do it. And I also
16:29 shouldn't be using a dog this small. And
16:30 in fairness, they were plus two and a
16:32 half yesterday when I put them in the
16:33 script. And it's not my fault they're
16:35 getting money because the wrong team is
16:39 favored here per our Philly producer Dan
16:42 Alexander. Look, the Eagles are kind of
16:43 in a free fall. They always say, "Don't
16:46 try to catch a falling knife." But I
16:47 think that's what Eagles backers are
16:49 going to try to do here. You have
16:51 back-to-back losses against the Broncos
16:53 and an ugly loss to divisional rival on
16:56 Thursday night to the Giants. And those
16:58 bad vibes are kind of lingering a little
17:00 bit longer than I think fans in Philly
17:02 would like. I have questions. How hurt
17:05 is Saquon Barkley? Speaking of hurt,
17:07 Jaylen Herz cannot get on the same page
17:09 with his receivers.
17:12 You want to lay points with him on the
17:15 road. Eagles seven and 14 against a
17:18 spread following a loss. One loss became
17:20 two with the Broncos. Two losses are
17:22 going to become three. Minnesota is
17:23 coming off their bye-week after they
17:25 just spent two weeks in London. Number
17:29 two in EPA per play allowed. Number six
17:31 in defensive success rate. Number one in
17:34 passing EPA allowed. I know VR just made
17:36 fun of the narrative in Tennessee, but
17:39 Carson Wentz versus his former team.
17:40 mini one. Give me the Vikings and
17:42 teasers. Give me the plus one and a half
17:45 and give me the plus 115 on the money
17:48 line. I like the Minnesota Vikings. And
17:50 again, if you're not happy with our
17:52 barking dog selection, just tell us in
17:53 the comments section. We would love to
17:55 hear from you guys. Maybe next week we
17:56 can at least find some field goal
17:59 underdogs. There just isn't a lot. And I
18:00 also try to break things up, guys,
18:02 because I don't want to be redundant in
18:05 games. And VR's best bet is a barking
18:06 dog that I like. And there's some other
18:09 things kind of in that mix that we're
18:11 going to save for later on in the show.
18:12 But one of the things we're going to get
18:16 to right now is the deli 18 and 11. Marco,
18:18 Marco,
18:20 I'm not condemning you yet. Even though
18:21 some of these sandwiches have been a little
18:23 little
18:24 hard to stomach. >> Yum.
18:25 >> Yum.
18:27 >> Well, Kelly is I said off air, you're
18:29 just a little bit too bougie sometimes.
18:34 You got All right. All right. So, uh,
18:35 the sandwiches have been getting the
18:37 money and, uh, we're going to continue
18:39 to do that. And if you like this segment
18:41 of Bet on it, we got an extended version
18:43 of it that comes out on Thursday,
18:46 Marco's Deli, tune in. I will give you
18:50 at least five games. Uh, and we give you
18:52 games that just miss being on this show
18:54 because I only give you one on here in
18:56 this segment. And as Kelly mentioned, we
18:59 are 18 and 11 on the season with all of
19:03 the plays and six weeks, six episodes of
19:06 the show, four winning weeks, one losing
19:09 week, and one 22 two and one week. And
19:12 that push that, uh, we had last week was
19:16 Missouri uh against Alabama. And we used
19:19 plus three on the show. It was on the
19:21 weekend three and a half. So, I'm sure a
19:23 lot of you guys won that, but we are
19:25 calling it what we put it out at, a
19:27 push. So, let's get into this week's and
19:30 we got a tasty sandwich. And I know that
19:33 our producer loves these sandwiches and
19:35 I'm going to ask you guys a question at
19:36 the end of the show and we'll see what
19:39 the producer says. But this is a classic
19:41 sandwich spot and we're going to tell
19:43 you the sandwich right off the bat. It
19:46 is a Philly cheese steak sandwich and
19:48 you'll see where I'm going very quickly.
19:50 Last Thursday night, Jackson Dart and
19:53 the New York Giants upset the defending
19:55 Super Bowl champs, division rivals, the
19:57 Philadelphia Eagles. And they didn't
19:59 just upset them, they put a beatdown on
20:02 them, 34 to 17. And I don't even think
20:05 it was that close. Having a rookie QB
20:07 get a big win in his first nationally
20:11 televised standalone game like that and
20:13 then ask them to travel across country.
20:17 That is enough to line me up to fade the
20:20 Giants this week. But we've got more.
20:22 You've got the Giants feeling fat and
20:26 sassy after their big win. You've got
20:29 Denver coming off one of the ugliest
20:32 wins you're going to ever see last week
20:34 against the Jets. Who's gonna want to
20:37 lay points with them? But look at the
20:40 New York Giants. Who do they play next week?
20:41 week?
20:43 That can't be right. They just played
20:45 them last week. Yeah, that's right. They
20:49 play the Philadelphia Eagles again. Talk
20:51 about a sandwich spot. Philly cheese
20:53 steak style, baby. I'm taking Denver
20:55 here. And how many times have you told
21:00 I've told you when a good team has a off
21:03 game, just escapes with a win, gets that
21:04 scare, you're going to see their best
21:06 effort the next week. Well, that's
21:10 definitely Denver. Check that box. Also,
21:12 that was a horrible spot for Denver last
21:14 week. That's why we like the under.
21:16 That's why, you know, the Jets were
21:18 alive play. Even though it was ugly to
21:21 get there, they got there. The Denver
21:24 was playing their fourth road game in
21:27 six weeks. And talk about road games.
21:29 You don't get any farther than traveling
21:32 to London for a road game. It was a
21:33 horrible spot for them. Now they're back
21:35 at home. They're going to get the job
21:38 done. And as far as Jackson Dart goes,
21:40 this is a rookie quarterback. Do you
21:41 think Shawn Payeyton's going to have a
21:44 game plan ready for him this week? We
21:46 know what veteran quarter or veteran
21:49 coaches do against rookie quarterbacks.
21:50 It's going to be a lot tougher this
21:53 week. He's not facing an easy defense
21:55 this week. He's going to face an elite
21:58 Denver defense. I think it's going to be
22:01 a long day for the Giants. I'm taking
22:03 Denver. I am laying the points. We're
22:06 calling it Denver 3117.
22:08 It is a Philly cheese steak. And here's
22:10 the question for the viewers. I want the
22:13 answer in the comments from you guys.
22:17 Are you team whiz or team no whiz on
22:20 your Philly cheese steak state?
22:23 >> You might want to like elaborate on that
22:24 because I think you might get a little
22:26 confusion in the comments section.
22:30 Marco, for those not from Philly.
22:33 >> Well, for the Philly ch Well, we got a
22:34 guy from Philly right in the middle of
22:35 the screen.
22:37 >> You want to come on? It is 9:30 in the
22:39 morning in West Coast and I guarantee he
22:40 looks like a bear that just crawled out
22:42 of the woods from winter. Why do you
22:44 think I leave the camera off? I leave
22:46 the camera off for that exact reason.
22:48 Cheese whiz is We give it to the
22:50 tourists. Marco, we like Cooper Sharp in
22:53 Philadelphia. Cooper sharp cheese. Or if
22:55 you want to be an Italian, shout out to
22:57 Marco. You do a little probe alone. But
22:58 the winners,
22:59 >> I got proalone. I think that's what you
23:00 brought me the morning. I was severely
23:02 hung over before the
23:03 >> I saved Kelly's life with a cheese
23:06 steak. That actually is a true story.
23:08 >> I literally It was It was rough. Dan saved
23:08 saved
23:10 >> VR's a Philly boy, too. Philly, which
23:11 way are you? VR.
23:13 >> It depends where you're at. I'm telling
23:15 you, like if you're down at the the the
23:18 tourist spots like Pats or Goss, you got
23:20 to have cheese whiz on it. You have to.
23:22 But if you're at a regular steak shop,
23:24 then yeah, you you go with the the the
23:26 cheddar or something along those lines
23:28 for sure. But yeah, if you're going to
23:30 go to Pats, Goss, those kind of places,
23:32 you got to get it like authentic the way
23:34 they do it. I think it's good. It's
23:35 nothing you want to make at home with
23:37 Cheese Whiz, but yeah, if you're out
23:38 there doing it, you got to eat it like
23:40 that, I think. All right, learn
23:43 something new every single day. And
23:44 hopefully you guys are going to learn
23:48 something new in our best bet segment.
23:50 But first, I wanted to remind you guys,
23:52 we got a ton of specials going up right
23:54 now over at wageralk.com.
23:57 My personal favorite is the Flex Pix.
24:00 Why? Because it gives you the ultimate
24:02 flexibility to get the picks from the
24:05 experts that you want every single day.
24:06 You just go on, you choose your
24:08 handicapper for that day before the
24:10 picks get released. And then you can
24:12 say, "Hey, you know, Marco's done really
24:13 great on Saturdays. I'm going to go
24:16 ahead and schedule him. I want all of
24:18 VR's NFL for Sunday and Monday."
24:20 Schedule him there. And of course, you
24:22 can skip days at your convenience. Right
24:27 now, 30 days, 249 bucks. That's $50 off
24:30 for Flex Picks VR. Let's get into your
24:33 best bet for NFL week seven. Let's do
24:35 it. Now, on Monday Night Football, I had
24:40 the Chicago Bears as a 5% big move and
24:43 urged uh betters to sprinkle a little
24:45 something on that money line like we
24:48 always do on some of our dogs, but this
24:51 is a bad spot for the Chicago Bears. You
24:54 have a lot of recency bias coming off
24:56 that Monday night win. This is a team
24:59 that's now won three straight games,
25:01 covered three straight games. So,
25:03 they've outperformed the betting market,
25:05 and more importantly, they've done so as
25:08 underdogs. That role's now flipped.
25:10 They're now the favorite. In fact,
25:13 they're a significant favorite. Um, and
25:15 this is a team with no home field
25:17 advantage, at least based on this year,
25:18 right? They're playing better on the
25:20 road than they're playing at home. Your
25:21 home field advantage should come if your
25:23 point differential is a lot better at
25:24 home than it is on the road. That's not
25:26 the case here. So, the inflated price is
25:30 based on nothing more than recency bias
25:32 of what we've seen the last week or two.
25:36 With that said, factor in Caleb Williams
25:38 down at the bottom in passing success
25:41 rate. In fact, he's 29th in the NFL
25:42 right now going into this week where
25:45 Rattler, he's right behind that league
25:48 average, continuing to improve. I think
25:49 the Saints team is being overlooked
25:51 here. I think they're catching more
25:53 points than they should. And I think
25:57 this is a very very winnable game um for
26:00 New Orleans. Again, I think that the the
26:01 if they could run the football
26:04 successfully, which they've been able to
26:06 do, you got a workhorse and Kamar back
26:09 there and they can keep um the Chicago offense
26:11 offense
26:13 off the field and sustain a couple
26:15 drives, they're going to be right in
26:16 there to win this game at the end.
26:17 That's why the money line's going to be
26:20 live. Uh, but against this defense,
26:22 barely top 20. That back door is going
26:25 to be open the entire 60 minutes. Take
26:27 the New Orleans Saints. The points are a
26:30 gift. Sprinkle that money line as well.
26:32 >> Yeah, Marco and I talked about this off
26:34 air. We also like the New Orleans
26:37 Saints, a team that Marco's on. I can't
26:39 help but agree. I've been on the Colts
26:41 all season long, Marco. But before you
26:43 tell us why you like the Chargers,
26:45 please tell me what you've got going on
26:47 over at wageralk.com.
26:48 Well, Kelly, we got a special going.
26:51 It's an end of the year special. It's
26:53 the rest of 2025. There's 10 weeks,
26:55 little more than 10 weeks left in the
26:57 calendar year. And you know, if you
27:00 bought my plays on a weekly basis, a
27:04 week cost $99, you'd spend $990. But if
27:06 you take advantage of this offer, you're
27:09 going to get every play, every sport,
27:13 the rest of 2025 for just $449.
27:16 NBA starts next Tuesday. Hockey started
27:20 last Tuesday. We're number one in both
27:23 of those sports uh over uh the last few
27:27 years. You look at the NBA since 2020,
27:29 number one at wager talk. The hockey
27:32 since 2021, number one at wager talk.
27:34 You'll get all of those. You'll get our
27:36 winning football plays as well. College
27:38 basketball's just around the corner as
27:41 well too. So grab that rest of season.
27:44 We hit a 5% again last week. got another
27:46 one coming up this weekend. Get on
27:48 board. No better time. And Kelly, yes,
27:51 you're right. The Indianapolis Colts
27:54 have been the surprise of the season,
27:56 but if you tuned in to our preseason
27:59 previews, all three of us were very high
28:01 on the Indianapolis Colts this year
28:03 coming in. So, it's not a surprise to
28:06 us. But, I'm going to jump off that
28:08 gravy train this week that has been the
28:10 Indianapolis Colts and I'm going to look
28:12 at the Chargers. I think this is a bad
28:17 spot for Indianapolis. And to be fair,
28:19 you know, they have had their wins, but
28:22 let's be honest, they've played Miami,
28:23 they've played Tennessee, and they've
28:25 played the Raiders. Those are three
28:27 teams that are playing very bad this
28:29 season. And then they also beat a banged
28:32 up Arizona team. Um, the only good team
28:35 that Indianapolis did beat was Denver.
28:38 And if you remember that game, Denver
28:40 had the game one. Indianapolis was
28:43 lining up for a very long field goal.
28:47 They missed it. Game over. Oh, wait.
28:49 There was a yellow flag on the field.
28:52 They got uh that was the infamous
28:55 leverage penalty and they got 15 yard
28:57 penalty. Moved it closer and guess what?
28:59 They kicked the game winner uh at the
29:02 gun uh with a second chance. So, yes,
29:04 Indianapolis is playing good, but you
29:06 know, the record is a little bit better
29:09 than maybe it really should be given the
29:10 schedule that they've played in some of
29:13 the breaks. The Chargers, they were
29:15 lucky to escape last week, but give them
29:16 credit. They didn't play well and they
29:18 found a way to win and they were really
29:21 in a bad spot. That was their sixth game
29:23 of the season. It was the fourth time
29:25 they were on the road. And if you
29:27 remember, uh, this team with all the
29:29 road trips that they made, they went to
29:31 Brazil the first game of the season, and
29:34 then what made last week's game tough
29:37 for them is they played on the East
29:41 Coast three weeks ago, came home, played
29:43 a game, then went back out on the road
29:46 to the East Coast to Miami. That's a
29:48 horrible scheduling spot for a West
29:51 Coast team to make that East Coast trip
29:53 twice in three weeks going cross
29:55 country. It's better if they would have
29:56 played it backtoback weeks because then
29:59 at least teams sometimes stay on the
30:02 East Coast to reduce the travel. Uh now
30:03 they're back at home. You're going to
30:06 see a good effort out of them. I like
30:08 them here. I'm going to go with the
30:09 Chargers. Expect the performance from
30:12 the Chargers. More like what we saw in
30:14 the first three weeks of the season than
30:16 what we've saw in the last three. Take
30:20 the Chargers 24-6 over the Colts.
30:24 >> All right. And another small underdog
30:26 for me. Could have went back and forth
30:27 on this one being a barking dog because
30:29 I think they are barking. But again, you
30:30 guys are going to tell me in the
30:33 comments section what a jackass I am
30:35 because I'm taking the Dallas Cowboys
30:38 who are six-2 straight up seven- one
30:39 against the spread in their last eight
30:42 meetings versus the Washington Football
30:44 Comm. The Commander wide receiver Terry
30:46 McLuren is still questionable. So keep
30:49 an eye after he's missed three games
30:51 with a quad injury as of Wednesday.
30:54 Don't know. Also don't know about CD
30:57 Lamb with his ankle injury from week
30:59 three. Hopefully both go because I think
31:01 this is going to be a really fun game. I
31:03 know a lot of people that like the over
31:06 here, but I like the Cowboys
31:09 number three team in scoring 29.7 points
31:11 per game. And I don't know if it's a
31:14 surprise that Dallas has great offensive
31:18 numbers or if it's that Dak Prescott is
31:21 finally healthy this late into the
31:22 season. I think he's been playing at
31:25 near MVP levels. Yes, I said it.
31:27 Everybody else wants to talk about Baker
31:30 Mayfield, but Dak Prescott is getting no
31:32 love here, especially against a
31:35 Commander defense that is shaky at best
31:38 and just got dominated by Caleb Williams
31:41 and the Bears on Monday night. I like
31:43 Dallas plus one and a half. Dallas in
31:46 teasers and of course Dallas plus 115 is
31:48 probably worth a play as well because
31:51 like Marco says, games don't land one.
31:53 And if this one does land one, fine.
31:54 We're gonna get the teaser and we're
31:56 gonna get the plus one and a half. Let's
31:59 bring back in Marco and VR to thank you
32:00 guys each and every week for hanging out
32:02 with us here on the Wager Talk YouTube
32:04 channel. I know we keep asking for
32:06 comments and that's because we need
32:10 them. We also need likes and hit that
32:11 subscribe button from you guys. It does
32:14 wonders for our channel and we are here
32:17 for you each and every NFL week all the
32:19 way to Super Bowl. So, make sure you
32:21 guys give Marco a follow. Marco in
32:23 Vegas. Make sure you guys give Yanni a
32:26 follow at Greek_Gambler.
32:29 I'm Kelly in Vegas. Until next week. Oh,
32:30 wait. You guys need to know where the
32:32 college football show is. Don't worry,
32:34 it's right here. Mega show is going to
32:36 be right here. Until next week, let's
Chrome Extension