0:03 NFL week six is on deck. We're going to
0:05 cover all those prime time games. Check
0:07 in with VR for the Steam Report. Of
0:10 course, the deli has been absolutely
0:12 redot, so Marco better be cooking up
0:15 some paninis for me. We got some barking
0:17 dogs for you guys, as well as best bets
0:33 [Music]
0:36 Kelly Stewart here joined by Yanni the
0:38 Greek Marco D'Angelo and we're going to
0:41 get right into NFL week six for you guys
0:42 starting with Thursday Night Football.
0:44 Marco D'Angelo, you're going to be up
0:46 first here. Eagles seven and a half
0:50 point favorites at the Giants 41 a half
0:53 big time rivalry game except for it's
0:55 not. Our producer Dan just casually
0:57 reminded all of us how the Eagles have
0:58 dominated the Giants for a better part
1:01 of two decades, which kind of has me
1:04 thinking, do I just take the easy way
1:07 out and tease the Eagles here?
1:09 I can't argue with that. Like get the
1:12 Eagles down to just win the game. That's
1:14 probably going to be on a few of my
1:17 tickets as well this week. Uh but when
1:19 we break this game down, let's start
1:22 with the fact that last week we cashed
1:24 going against both of these two teams.
1:26 And why? Well, because they were both in
1:29 what I felt bad situations. You had the
1:32 Eagles uh coming off, you know, another
1:35 uh win, a close win the week before and
1:37 they had Denver coming to town. Denver,
1:40 good defensive team getting points and
1:42 you had the Eagles with this game on
1:45 deck, a division rivalry uh on a short
1:47 week. I just thought it was a horrible
1:50 spot for the Eagles and they went down.
1:53 Now, losing last week may just be the
1:54 best thing that could have happened to
1:57 this team because as we pointed out last
1:59 week, their four wins had come by just a
2:01 grand total of 20 points. So, I'm hoping
2:04 that loss, you know, is the wakeup call
2:06 for this team. We also went against the
2:08 Giants. All of us went against the
2:11 Giants last week. We were all in uh
2:13 unison going with the Saints because the
2:16 Giants were coming off their first win
2:18 with Jackson Dart the week before and
2:20 then had to travel down to New Orleans
2:23 uh to play the Saints who were winless
2:25 and then had this game on deck. It was
2:28 just a horrible spot for them and New
2:30 Orleans came through for us. Now,
2:33 playing on a short week, you've got to
2:35 figure that the advantage goes to
2:37 Philadelphia. Even though they're on the
2:40 road, it's a short trip to go to uh play
2:42 the Giants. But I'm looking at it from
2:44 the aspect of the two starting
2:47 quarterbacks. You've got to get a rookie
2:49 quarterback that's only made three
2:53 starts prepared for a tough game in
2:55 three days to play on Thursday night as
2:57 opposed to a veteran quarterback like
3:00 Jaylen Herz. And for the love of God,
3:02 will you please run the football,
3:04 Philadelphia, I don't care if you're
3:06 struggling running the football, you got
3:10 to have some balance. 11 times you ran
3:12 the football last week. And I might add,
3:15 you had Barkley in your backfield. All
3:18 right. And you also had a double- digit
3:22 lead. How you only ran 11 plays, ran the
3:24 ball 11 times is beyond me. You've got
3:27 to balance the offense uh to keep the
3:30 defenses honest. And I think that they
3:32 will have success in this game against
3:35 the Giants uh defense. We're going to go
3:38 ahead take Philadelphia. I'll lay the
3:41 points. I'm calling for uh Philadelphia
3:43 to get the win in the cover, but I'll be
3:44 honest with you, I think the safer bet
3:48 in this play is to use Philadelphia on a
3:50 six-point teaser. You don't want to use
3:52 a six and a half or a seven and pay even
3:55 more juice. You want to get this at that
3:58 125 uh shop around the houses that you
4:00 can find the 125 or better. There are
4:02 some out there. There is one here in
4:04 Vegas and that's where I put all of my
4:07 teasers. Go ahead and take Philly to
4:09 cover, but I'm going to have more
4:11 teasers in this game, Kelly.
4:12 All right, Marco. Now, the comment
4:14 section is going to ask where that
4:16 casino is in Vegas. That is unbeknownst
4:18 to me. Who has minus 125 teaser still in Vegas?
4:19 Vegas?
4:22 It this is shocking that it's them. It's
4:24 Caesars that has 125. Wow.
4:24 Wow.
4:28 And the situation, if you remember, VR
4:30 will remember, remember a few years ago
4:32 in the playoffs, there was the first
4:35 weekend of the playoffs. Every teaser
4:37 covered no matter
4:40 aside and total tease totals.
4:44 All right. Okay. and Caesars panicked
4:45 and the next week they didn't take
4:48 teasers the next week of the playoffs
4:51 when all of the lines were three which
4:53 that's when you want people to to play
4:56 teasers. Okay. So they they did
4:59 everything ass backwards back then and
5:02 now they're the only one that has the
5:03 125 here in town.
5:05 All right. If we could only bet their VR
5:06 we would go use their teasers. That's
5:08 okay. We got a we got a we got a guy. We
5:11 got a guy. That's all that matters. You
5:13 should also get a guy. Just ask. Never
5:15 hurts. Uh, Sunday Night Football, Lions
5:17 plus 2 and a half at the Chiefs. Total
5:21 52 and a half. Woo. Is this the fishy
5:26 line of the week, but not so fast.
5:29 Fading teams off a big win has been
5:31 historically favorable betting in the
5:33 NFL, right? But that is not the case for
5:37 Dan Campbell from the Gold Sheet.
5:39 Following a win by at least a seven
5:42 points or more, Detroit has gone 21 and
5:44 five against the spread the next game.
5:47 Dan Campbell as an underdog 11-2.
5:50 Listen, I want to take the Lions so bad
5:53 here, but I will say this, their defense
5:55 is a little banged up and their Chiefs
5:57 offense is starting to ramp up kind of
5:59 after that slow start. So, with a higher
6:02 total, this is not a traditional teaser
6:04 play, but I'm looking at putting the
6:06 Lions in teasers. I do think this is
6:08 going to be a higher scoring game. Would
6:10 not shock me to see both teams end up in
6:14 the 30s here. Two highscoring offenses,
6:17 banged up defense. Just keep in mind the
6:19 Lions not that traditional square dog
6:22 here. 21 and five against the spread the
6:23 next game. We'll see if maybe I don't
6:27 put them in a couple contest plays.
6:29 VR, let's talk Monday Night Football. We
6:31 got a double header. Bills are a three
6:32 and a half point favorite at the
6:36 Falcons. Total 47 and a half.
6:37 Yeah. And and don't get me wrong, you
6:41 know, this isn't a knock on Buffalo. Um
6:43 but I think it's a good spot to look to
6:47 Atlanta as a a decent home dog here uh
6:49 on Monday night. Got to remember this is
6:51 only Buffalo's second road game. They
6:54 played four or five games at home. So
6:55 now they're they're they're traveling on
6:57 the road and they're playing a a really
7:01 tough team in the Atlanta Falcons. Um
7:03 they they sorry they do a lot of things
7:05 well. They they they got an excellent
7:08 defense. They run the football and
7:11 they're slowly and surely getting Pennix
7:14 up the speed. And what I like is I talk
7:17 about uh passing success rate all the
7:20 time. And if you look right now, he's
7:23 slowly but surely climbing those ranks.
7:25 um where he sits right now, Penn has a
7:28 49.2 passing success rate. And when you
7:31 compare that to Josh Allen, who's got a 51.9,
7:33 51.9,
7:36 it shows you just how impressive um Penn
7:40 has been so far for Atlanta. With that
7:42 said, if they're able to run the
7:45 football and control the clock, which is
7:48 where their strength is, and coupled
7:52 with the weakness for Buffalo, that run
7:54 defense, I think Atlanta's going to be
7:56 in this game from start to finish and
7:58 have a chance to actually win, let alone
8:02 cover. I I like Atlanta having a buy
8:04 coming into this week, so they've had
8:06 extra time to prepare. I like the fact
8:08 they haven't had a Monday night game in
8:10 Atlanta for a number of years. So, this
8:12 is going to be a hostile environment,
8:15 hyped up for Monday night. They can't
8:17 afford to fall behind. They're going to
8:20 want to have that crowd in there. Um, so
8:23 look for them to to try to control the
8:25 football. And more importantly, we
8:28 finally have seen some cracks in Buffalo
8:29 as far as turnovers. If you remember
8:32 coming into the season, we touched on
8:35 Buffalo was plus 24 in turnovers last
8:38 season. Number one in all the NFL, the
8:41 number two team had only 16.
8:45 So like what, 40% less than what Buffalo
8:48 did. And where they really did best was
8:51 if you look at their fumbles, they
8:55 captured 16 fumbles and only lost two.
8:58 So 18 times the ball hit the ground and
9:01 they recovered 16 of those. It's 5050
9:03 when that ball hits the ground more
9:05 times than not. So it shows you just how
9:08 lucky they got. That's not going to
9:10 continue forever. I think we're starting
9:12 to see that. We could force some more
9:14 turnovers. Atlanta may be that money
9:17 line play, but at four I like the Falcons.
9:19 Falcons.
9:22 Wow. Falcons to shock the world in the
9:25 first Monday night game. Marco, do you
9:27 think the Bears can shock the world?
9:29 Plus three and a half. I know they're a
9:31 little underdog on the road at the
9:34 Commanders 50 and a half.
9:36 Daniels looked pretty good in his return
9:38 there last week versus the Chargers
9:41 after they got down early, but now
9:43 they're back at home. Talk to me about
9:45 this Bears team off a buy.
9:48 Yeah, Kelly. And normally off of a buy,
9:50 I don't like taking a team that went
9:53 into the buy on a good note. And the
9:55 Bears won two in a row heading into the
9:57 buy. Generally, that's a momentum
9:59 stopper. But the more I thought about
10:01 it, I actually think that this was the
10:04 perfect time for the Bears to get that
10:06 early buy. Think about it. Uh they
10:09 played four games. They improved in the
10:12 last two games. Remember Caleb Williams
10:15 second year uh in the NFL. A lot of
10:16 times we see quarterbacks have a
10:19 regression in the second year. Throw in
10:22 the fact that he had to deal with a new
10:25 uh offense to run this year. Uh Ben
10:27 Johnson takes over, comes in from the
10:28 Detroit Lions as the offensive
10:31 coordinator to be the head coach. So now
10:33 you had a learning curve for him. You've
10:36 had a four-week sample size. They could
10:39 take that two weeks to prepare. Look at
10:42 the film, see what Caleb Williams did
10:44 well, what he was comfortable with, what
10:47 plays didn't work in the playbook, tweak
10:49 those or throw them out, and use the
10:52 cream of the crop and tweak those plays.
10:53 I think you're going to see the best
10:56 offensive performance of the season from
10:59 the Bears coming out of that by week
11:02 with the extra week to prepare. Also, I
11:04 look at this one and I see Washington,
11:07 uh, they're in a tough scheduling spot.
11:08 Okay, they came out of their by-week,
11:10 so, you know, they were focused. They
11:12 went cross country to play the Chargers
11:15 in LA. Now, that was an impressive win
11:18 uh like the Washington in that game. But
11:21 let's not forget, you had the Chargers
11:23 who were zigzagging all across the
11:25 country in the first couple weeks of the
11:27 season. remember all of the road games
11:29 that they had to start the season, plus
11:31 three tough divisional games, plus all
11:34 of the injuries that they had. They were
11:36 ripe for the picking and Washington took
11:39 advantage of it. Now you got Washington
11:41 coming back, returning home from the
11:43 West Coast. But look at who they play
11:46 next. It's the Dallas Cowboys division
11:48 rival. Uh this is what, you know, I
11:50 could have used this one in a sandwich
11:54 spot as well. And for the last factor,
11:55 do you think the Bears remember last
11:58 year's game against Washington? If you
12:01 don't, I'll remind you. Washington was
12:05 losing until the final play of the game.
12:08 Daniels hits a Hail Mary in the end zone
12:12 for the win. Then the Chicago defender
12:14 that should have been covering the guy
12:16 that caught the ball in the end zone was
12:19 in the corner of the end zone taunting
12:21 the crowd thinking they had the game one
12:24 already. Do you remember that one? Uh
12:26 yeah, and that was the start of the
12:29 Bears season spiraling out of control.
12:31 Yeah, they got this one circled. Let's
12:34 go ahead take uh Chicago in this one. in
12:36 the Washington pass defense. They've
12:40 allowed 261 yards or more in three of
12:42 their last four games. Uh look for a
12:44 high-scoring game. I'll go ahead and
12:46 take the Bears plus the points on Monday night.
12:47 night.
12:48 Oh boy. Yeah, Marco, I think a lot of us
12:52 remember that game. That was a wild one.
12:54 VR, let's get in to what you've got over
12:57 at wageralk.com this weekend before we
12:59 get into the steam room.
13:02 Well, already up is my college football
13:04 package with two 4%s in there. And of
13:05 course, we're going to have a lot more
13:08 between now and Saturday. I've won every
13:10 week so far in college football. From
13:12 week zero through week six, we've turned
13:14 the profit. And I feel confident that's
13:16 only going to continue. Already up over
13:20 110 units. NFL regular season has been
13:23 fire as well after not a good preeason.
13:28 And this Sunday firing a 5% in the NFL.
13:30 I haven't had a 5% in the NFL. I don't
13:31 even know if I've had one yet this
13:34 season, but we do have a position that
13:36 warrants that. So, head on over to Wager
13:38 Talk. We'll have the NFL package,
13:42 college football package, UFC package as
13:44 well, and of course, Major League
13:46 Baseball playoffs each and every night.
13:49 So, a great time to get on board. And of
13:51 course, the Steam Room Sunday heading
13:55 into the NFL 1 PM kickoffs. All right,
13:57 let's hear what you've got from Sharp
14:01 action for NFL week six. All right,
14:04 let's look at some of the the the hits
14:06 that had that the moves that had
14:08 followth through because again we talk
14:11 about the look ahead lines all the time
14:13 and the limits are low but it gives us
14:16 an idea whether after the rest of the
14:21 books open up if the uh groups continue
14:24 to follow through and bet that side or
14:26 whether it was just taken advantage of a
14:27 look ahead. Start off with the
14:30 Indianapolis Colts. Their look ahead was
14:35 3 - 125 went to 55 1/2 that got bet up
14:38 to where it sits at 6 1/2 right now. Um
14:43 the Rams minus 6 1/2 minus 7. Now you're
14:45 looking at 7 and a half against
14:48 Baltimore. So half point increments
14:50 seems like Ram money continuing to come
14:54 in. Uh Miami plus five and a half and
14:56 plus five against the Chargers. That's
14:58 opposite the public. seeing a lot of
15:00 Charger money already from the
15:03 recreational accounts. Um, Tampa Bay
15:06 over San Francisco minus one and a half,
15:09 two and two and a half, but did see some
15:12 San Francisco plus three in a couple
15:15 sharp accounts, which tells you just how
15:18 tight these NFL lines and with three
15:20 being such a key number, that's not
15:23 surprising. Look at Green Bay -3 and a
15:25 half minus4
15:27 laying two touchdowns there. And
15:29 finally, Monday Night Football. I
15:30 already talked about them, but the
15:32 Atlanta Falcons at that look ahead at
15:35 plus five. They took the four and a
15:36 half. That's why you're looking at plus
15:39 four right now. So, still early in the
15:41 week, but those are some of the bigger
15:44 one-sided uh bigger uh steam moves on
15:46 some of those NFL sides for Sunday.
15:49 All right, let's get into these barking
15:53 dogs. Marco D'Angelo is going to be up
15:56 first. This is an interesting one. We've
15:58 got a new quarterback in Cleveland.
16:00 Well, I guess he played last week. Dylan
16:02 Gabriel, but Joe Flacco is no longer his
16:04 backup, which I think it means Chadur
16:06 Sanders would be if he goes out. But do
16:08 you like the Browns plus five and a half?
16:10 half?
16:11 No, I think actually when they did the
16:14 depth chart, it's Dylan Gabriel is the
16:16 starter. Uh player to be named later is
16:19 the backup and then Sanders is third on
16:22 the depth chart. But uh you got to love
16:26 the AFC North. Uh my Pittsburgh Steelers
16:28 had last week off. They gained a half a
16:31 game on the entire division by not
16:34 playing. Uh and then you have this is
16:37 the same division that one team trades
16:40 away their starting quarterback to
16:43 another team in the division and that
16:45 team thinks that got them that it was a
16:48 good deal. God bless America that we
16:50 live in. Uh, but from a betting
16:52 standpoint here, uh, I am going to go
16:54 ahead and take Cleveland. I mentioned in
16:57 the last game when we talked about by
16:59 weeks, uh, that I don't like teams that
17:01 go into a by-week on a good note, and
17:03 the Pittsburgh Steelers uh, went into
17:05 the by-week winning their last two
17:08 games. They went across the pond and
17:12 played in, uh, Ireland, beat Minnesota,
17:14 and now you've had two weeks off. It was
17:16 a little bit of a momentum stopper. Now,
17:19 it is an advantage restwise. You've had
17:22 two weeks where Cleveland went across
17:24 the pond and has to come back across the
17:27 pond not getting a byee. Normally, the
17:30 teams that play overseas gets the
17:32 by-week the following week. But, this is
17:34 a division game and I'm looking at the
17:35 Pittsburgh Steelers and even though
17:37 they're three and one and I cashed with
17:40 them against Minnesota, they're still
17:44 not a good football team. Don't be
17:46 misread by the record. Uh, this team,
17:50 the offensive line play is bad and Aaron
17:51 Rogers is not a mobile quarterback
17:54 anymore and Miles Garrett and company
17:57 are going to put pressure on him the
17:59 entire time in this game. He's going to
18:02 find out what the rivalry is between
18:04 Pittsburgh and Cleveland when Miles
18:06 Garrett comes calling. Uh, I always tell
18:08 you, give me points with the better
18:11 defense. Well, that better defense is
18:14 clearly Cleveland at this stage of the
18:17 season. Uh, also I'm going to look at
18:20 the fact in this one you talk about
18:22 Dylan Gabriel. Yeah. Uh, it was his
18:25 first game last week. He didn't set the
18:27 world on fire, but he also had a clean
18:29 game. He didn't lose the game for them.
18:30 They were in that game right till the
18:33 end. I think second start, he's going to
18:35 be better. Uh, got the nerves out, you
18:37 know, last week. If he had butterflies,
18:40 whatever. I expect a better game from
18:42 him taking all of the first string snaps
18:45 for a second week in a row. and he
18:46 doesn't have to look over his shoulder
18:49 because it's not, you know, the old man
18:52 Joe Flacco, it's Shidor Sanders and I
18:54 don't see him coming in anytime soon.
18:57 So, let's go ahead take Cleveland in
18:59 this one plus the points. In a perfect
19:04 world for me, Pittsburgh wins 2120, but
19:06 it's not a perfect world. I'm calling
19:08 Cleveland 20 to 17.
19:11 Oh boy. The Steelers fan is calling for
19:15 another Steelers loss. VR, you and I
19:17 were in agreement on this one, and I was
19:18 going to use it as my best bet, but I
19:21 wanted to add one more play into the
19:23 rotation. Tell me why you like the
19:26 Panthers as your barking dog this week.
19:28 Yeah, and this is one I I immediately
19:31 jumped on and sent out to subscribers. I
19:34 I thought um this Dallas team is a
19:38 little bit overvalued right now and I
19:40 thought the overreaction to the
19:45 offensive line injuries um with Carolina
19:49 uh was overpriced in this betting line
19:50 um because just Dallas just doesn't have
19:53 that the pass rush and that the the
19:56 defense to do all that much and take
19:57 advantage of that. Like that's their
20:00 weakness. So, I I don't think Carolina
20:02 is going to be at as big of a
20:04 disadvantage as if they were going up,
20:07 you know, a stellar front four. Uh,
20:08 also, I think they're going to have some
20:10 success running the football against
20:13 Dallas, which will take uh pressure off
20:16 of Bryce Young, whose passing efficiency
20:18 also continues to climb. And he's almost
20:21 right at that NFL average. And I know
20:22 Prescott seems like he's having a, you
20:23 know, stellar year. Had a couple big
20:26 games, but he's barely right above that
20:28 NFL average as far as passing success
20:32 rate goes. And why I like Carolina most
20:34 is because when you look at the weakness
20:36 of Dallas, I'm going to keep it this
20:38 simple. It's their defense. They're the
20:41 32nd most efficient defense in all of
20:43 the NFL.
20:46 If you're getting points like Carolina's
20:48 getting, that back door is going to stay
20:50 open that entire game. This is a defense
20:51 that you could march up and down the
20:54 field on and score some points. Having
20:57 them playing this game at home, I just
21:00 think they're live. Um they should be
21:02 able to keep it in the number. If not,
21:04 win this game on the money line. Just
21:08 got to slow down that uh offense of the
21:10 Cowboys, which again is top five in
21:11 efficiency going to give them their
21:14 their due. Um but I I think that'll
21:15 start to drop off as the season
21:17 progresses. They've only they've had
21:20 like the the 20th 22nd toughest
21:22 schedule. So easy strength of schedule
21:26 so far. Um again, I I think Dallas is
21:29 phony and I'll take the points with
21:31 Carolina. Give me the three and a half
21:33 at home dog.
21:36 I'm not sure if New England is phony. Uh
21:37 but I'm going to bet against them this
21:39 week. I'm not sure how legit they are.
21:41 Congratulations to them and that nice
21:45 win over Buffalo, but I think this is
21:47 kind of one of those weird letdown spo
21:50 spots. I like coach Brabel, but three
21:52 and a half points with a team who's been
21:55 competitive in all five games except for
21:57 at Seattle. Remember, they had a shot to
21:59 beat Arizona there at home. They had a
22:00 shot to beat San Francisco there at
22:02 home. And maybe they didn't have a shot
22:05 to beat Buffalo, but I can promise you
22:07 Buffalo backers in Survivor were
22:09 sweating late into that game. And then
22:12 they just got a nice win. They're at
22:14 home once again over the New York Giants
22:17 last week. They took early money and
22:20 rightfully so. That second half was all
22:23 the Saints. This is a Saints team that I
22:26 think is improving week by week. They
22:28 finally get the monkey of that loss off
22:32 their back and now New England goes on
22:36 the road once again just two and eight
22:39 in the NFC. Now, one could maybe argue
22:41 that was towards the end of Bill Bichc's
22:43 career and they just stopped playing
22:45 well without Tom Brady. But I think
22:48 Spencer Rattler having that first career
22:50 win, snapping that eight-game losing
22:52 streak and then giving head coach Kell
22:56 Moore his first win kind of propels them
22:59 into this week. Remember, they had five
23:02 turnovers. This is defense comes to
23:04 play. You can tell the Saints team is
23:07 hungry. I think we see a less than
23:09 stellar performance by the Pats. So,
23:11 give me the three and a half here with
23:13 the Saints. I think they can win this
23:15 game at home.
23:18 Marco D'Angelo's deli has been
23:21 absolutely piping hot. Hopefully, you
23:24 get the soup sandwich special that he
23:26 offers us every single week. And that is
23:28 that you can watch the extended version
23:31 of the deli either on the mega show or
23:33 on the Wager Talk YouTube channel. Of
23:34 course, if you're an insider, you get it
23:37 first. wt.buzzinssiders
23:41 to join. Marco, the deli, it's been
23:45 cooking. 16 and n on the season. Who do
23:47 we have for NFL week six? Yum.
23:47 Yum.
23:50 Yeah, Kelly, this is a perfect spot when
23:53 you talk about a sandwich situation. Uh
23:56 we're going to look at Seattle. Uh and
23:57 they're going to be playing at
23:59 Jacksonville. And you got Jacksonville
24:01 coming off back-to-back games in which
24:04 they went to San Francisco two weeks
24:06 ago. Beat the 49ers. Now granted, the
24:09 49ers were banged up, but still it's the
24:12 49ers on the road. You got the win. Then
24:15 they came home. We all saw the Monday
24:17 night game. What a game. Probably one of
24:19 the best Monday night games uh we'll see
24:22 all season. And they got the win over
24:24 the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, beating
24:27 Kansas City is a big deal by itself, but
24:29 given the fashion in which they won the
24:32 game when after giving up the go-ahead
24:35 touchdown late, you had Trevor Lawrence
24:38 take them down the field and score the
24:40 winning touchdown and on the craziest
24:43 play, he gets his footstepped on, falls
24:45 down. They have no timeouts. If he gets
24:48 tackled uh behind the line of scrimmage,
24:50 uh they could have trouble getting the
24:52 next play off with without the clock
24:55 running out. and instead he gets up. I
24:56 thought he was just gonna throw it out
24:59 of bounds to stop the clock. No, he
25:01 finds a way to get into the end zone on
25:04 a broken play to win the game. And that
25:06 game was on Monday Night Football at
25:09 home. How often is Jacksonville on
25:12 Monday Night Football, period, let alone
25:15 have a home game? Talk about a letown
25:17 spot. You're coming off of all of that,
25:20 those two games the previous weeks, and
25:22 you're on such a high off the Monday
25:24 night. It's a short week and oh by the
25:27 way next week you travel across the
25:30 pond, you go to London to play the Rams.
25:33 This is an absolutely horrible spot for
25:35 them to be playing Seattle. Seattle's
25:37 coming off a tough loss of their own
25:40 last week uh against the comeback kids
25:44 aka Tampa Bay. If you don't haven't
25:46 watched Tampa Bay play this year, they
25:48 are actually fun team to watch with
25:50 Baker Mayfield. They fall behind every
25:52 week and they find a way to win it and
25:56 Seattle was their latest victim. Uh is
25:59 they Tampa Bay has won four or five
26:00 coming from behind this year.
26:03 Defensively, Seattle has allowed only
26:05 one opponent to top 20 points this season.
26:07 season.
26:09 This is just you add in the scheduling,
26:12 the short week, who they've played, that
26:14 monumental Monday night game going to
26:17 London next week in Seattle coming off a
26:19 tough loss at home last week with a bad
26:22 taste in her mouth. To me, this all adds
26:24 up to taking Seattle. And the last thing
26:27 I'll say about Jacksonville, I'll give
26:30 you another, you know, Marco ism that I
26:32 like to look at. That was a statement
26:34 game for Jacksonville. Okay, they were
26:37 3-1, but nobody was really giving them
26:40 any credit for the wins that they had.
26:42 Now they're 4- one and they beat Kansas
26:44 City and Patrick Mahomes. Uh, as I like
26:46 to say, that was their legitimizer. Now
26:48 people believe in them. And as soon as
26:50 people actually start talking about a
26:52 team, that's when I want to go against
26:55 them. Let's go ahead and take Seattle in
26:57 this one. And you know what? I have a
27:00 feeling, Kelly, plus one and a half.
27:03 Gonna see them on some teasers as well.
27:05 Yes, we are gonna see the month teasers.
27:08 I've already done it. I broke PR's rule.
27:09 Don't tell them. Okay, guys.
27:10 Don't do it.
27:12 The te the teasers have done really well
27:15 outside of last week and a team named
27:17 the Ravens.
27:19 We're getting into best bets right now.
27:21 VR, what are we doing here?
27:24 Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. I don't care. I
27:28 listen. I will go down fighting that I
27:31 am comfortable making this bet and I
27:33 feel extremely confident, Kell, that I'm
27:36 so getting the best of it. This is such
27:38 an overreaction
27:41 to Baltimore. Let's let me just take you
27:44 back real quickly. They lose in the
27:47 playoffs as one-point favorites.
27:50 One-point favorites on the road at
27:52 Buffalo. They lose that game by what, a
27:55 point or two. They come back the
27:57 following year. They're still onepoint
28:01 favorites on the road at Buffalo. They
28:04 lose that game in the most improbable
28:06 fashion. Okay. They come back the
28:08 following week as 13-point favorites
28:11 because on paper they were the best team
28:12 in the NFL. And what do they do? They
28:15 cover. They win by 20 plus against
28:18 Cleveland. So right then and there
28:20 they're considered the best team in the
28:24 NFL. That was not all that long ago.
28:27 Okay. Since then, they went to they
28:28 played Detroit. They were four and a
28:30 half point favorites against the best
28:32 team in the NFL right now, Detroit. Four
28:35 and a half against Detroit. Very same
28:38 place, Baltimore. September 22nd, just a
28:41 few weeks back. They lose that game.
28:43 Then they go to Kansas City, one of the
28:45 toughest places to play anyway. They
28:47 lose that game and they get blown out by
28:50 Houston. Why? because Rush throws three
28:55 interceptions. Now, Rush had a 58 QBR.
28:57 If anybody's going to progress towards
29:00 the mean, it's this kid. Cuz when you
29:02 look at his career,
29:05 it's a lot better than that. We have a
29:08 couple seasons, a handful of games, and
29:11 his quarterback rating historically has
29:14 been a lot higher than 60. So, I expect
29:17 him to only improve.
29:19 One of the best home field advantages in
29:23 all of the NFL is still Baltimore. And
29:26 if anything, this is a proud franchise,
29:31 a proud team that is a seven and a half
29:36 point dog to the LA Rams. Listen, I I I
29:38 get it. Stafford's playing well. Rams
29:41 are looking good. They're three and two,
29:46 you know, above 500 coming off what uh a
29:48 loss. So, expecting them to bounce back.
29:50 It was a tough loss to San Francisco. I
29:53 don't see it. I like Baltimore here. We
29:55 have another team traveling from the
29:58 West Coast to the East Coast given way
30:00 too many points. Kell, I think Rush
30:02 improves off of that performance. I
30:05 think Baltimore has some pride. And I
30:08 think power rating wise, this is foolish
30:10 because when I look at the Rams, yeah,
30:13 offensively, they're barely a top 15
30:15 team. The weakness for Baltimore has
30:16 been their defense, but fortunately
30:19 they're not playing the the the most
30:21 stellar of offenses this week. I'm
30:23 telling you that. Take the seven and a
30:25 half. It's a gift. Sprinkle the money
30:27 line on Baltimore as well. Don't be
30:29 surprised if they get the win and move
30:32 to two and four. All right, that is uh
30:35 certainly a brave pick. I have a feeling
30:37 the whole world is going to tease the
30:41 Rams. So, good luck for those that have
30:42 uh better stomach than I do. I can't
30:45 back the Ravens a second week in a row.
30:49 Marco, a team that you want to back here
30:53 and I'm not against it, but talk to me
30:56 about London and why we're taking the
31:00 yonder. But before you do, seven days of
31:04 picks for $77. Just $11 a day. What do
31:06 you have to promote now over at wageralk.com?
31:07 wageralk.com?
31:10 Kelly, seven days all access right now.
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31:30 seven days for $77. It's the best way to
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31:35 you're an all access client, if your
31:37 handicapper puts a play in, say on
31:40 Tuesday for Sunday, you get an email
31:42 notification immediately about the play
31:44 so you get the best of the number as
31:46 well. It's the best way to go. Don't
31:48 wait till game day. Sign up for 7-day
31:50 all access. And we've got a big weekend
31:53 planned as well. We are number two in
31:55 money one over the last two years
31:58 combined in college and pro football.
32:01 So, be sure to check myself out and all
32:04 of the great handicappers at Wager Talk.
32:06 Kelly, we're going to head over to
32:08 London. Another one of these early
32:11 games. I hate getting up at 6:30 to
32:13 watch football on a Sunday morning, but
32:15 we've got Denver and the Jets. And when
32:18 you look at this one, uh Denver is
32:20 coming off back-to-back wins where the
32:22 Jets, well, they can't get out of their
32:25 own way. 0 and5. and the Jets defense
32:29 has been absolutely non-existent. Every
32:31 opponent has scored 27 or more points
32:34 against them. So, with that said, the
32:36 knee-jerk reaction would be either to
32:39 take Denver and lay the points or take
32:42 the over, but I'm not doing either. And
32:45 here's why. This is a tough scheduling
32:47 spot for Denver is this is going to be
32:49 their fourth road game in five weeks.
32:53 And you can't get a longer road trip
32:55 than heading across the pond to go play
32:59 in London. The one thing that Denver has
33:00 going for them, and it's been a
33:02 consistent all year, has been they've
33:05 got a strong defense. Um, and is, you
33:08 know, the saying goes, defense is well.
33:10 Well, I'm looking for that defense to
33:14 travel to London and be the best unit on
33:17 the field on Sunday. And you look at the
33:20 Jets, uh, I think Denver's gonna exploit
33:23 the fact that the Jets have an inability
33:25 to stop the run. And by running the
33:28 football, Denver will shorten the game.
33:30 Get in and get out, which they want to
33:32 do. Also, if you're running the football
33:34 effectively, that gives you better down
33:36 and distances when you do have to pass
33:38 the football. And they can protect Bo
33:41 Knicks. Bo Nicks has had an up and down
33:43 season. There's times that he looks like
33:45 a secondyear quarterback in the NFL and
33:47 there's other times that he shows some
33:49 of the brilliance that he flashed last
33:51 year as a rookie, but he has been
33:54 inconsistent and they want to minimize
33:56 the mistakes. Well, when you're running
33:58 the football effectively, that's the
34:01 best way to minimize mistakes. With that
34:05 said, I look for this to be a quick game
34:08 and lots of runs by Denver and
34:09 especially when they get a lead on the
34:12 Jets. And that's going to lead to an
34:14 under. My projected score in this one is
34:17 Denver 20-13, which would cover the
34:19 point spread if you want to go that
34:22 route, but I am looking at the unders. I
34:24 think this one goes well under the 43
34:25 and a half.
34:27 I owe you guys an apology because I was
34:29 picking disgusting dogs this week in the
34:32 NFL regardless. I went back and forth
34:34 between Miami and this play and who I
34:37 was going to use for barking dogs. And
34:39 look, it's gross. it. Bottom line,
34:45 taking the Titans off that crazy win is
34:47 not exactly the spot most of you want to
34:49 do. Oh, Kelly, the miraculous upset.
34:52 What would the line have been if that
34:53 touchdown would have scored and Arizona
34:55 went up three scores? No, the line would
34:57 have been the same. The line is the same
35:00 as it was in July
35:02 when our friends over at the Super Bowl
35:05 put out these lines. Vegas minus four.
35:08 There's literally nothing different
35:09 except for we're betting against the
35:12 Raiders again. Do you think you can
35:14 trust this team as a favorite? They have
35:16 no homefield advantage. Gino Smith has
35:18 nine interceptions on the season and
35:20 this is the worst start in Pete Carol's
35:22 career. I gave you guys the Colts last
35:23 week and everybody in the comment
35:26 section told me how square I was. Call
35:27 me square again for taking the four and
35:29 a half here with the Titans. But I think
35:31 the Titans can take that momentum and
35:34 turn it into two wins. Give me the
35:36 Titans plus four and a half for my best
35:40 bet NFL week six. Let's get that recap
35:44 graphic up for everybody. From VR and
35:46 Marco and of course myself, we wish you
35:50 guys a profitable NFL week six. And if
35:51 you are looking for that college
35:52 football edition of Bet on its right
35:55 here and of course the mega show we keep
35:57 talking about. If you're in it for the
35:59 long haul, you don't want to miss a
36:00 single minute of bet on it. We got you covered.
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