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REAGINDO A CARTEIRA DA EITONILDA!
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Today we're going to react to Etonilda's portfolio
, which produces
investment content on YouTube. He has a channel
with more than 1 million subscribers and more
than 1.5 million reais invested.
Is her investment strategy
good? You find out everything in this
video. Remembering that this is
an analysis of Deonilda's portfolio. There
are already several other videos here on
Nai's channel analyzing Primo
Rico's portfolio, the investing housekeeper's portfolio, and it's
always about analyzing the portfolio. what
we agreed on, we thought was a
good idea, what we didn't agree on,
we would do differently. It is never an
attack on the person. I've seen comments
saying not that they spoke badly of
so-and-so, but that they spoke badly of so-and-so, when
in fact we are here to discuss
investments, including to
add to those of you on the other side who are
watching to have another view, to have
another opinion. Aonilda started her channel
from scratch, showcasing the investments she
's making and demonstrating that she lives a
more minimalist lifestyle to be
able to invest. This ends up
encouraging many other
people to invest as well. She's
even been on our podcast Gêmeos
Podcast and we liked her content.
Then Tonilda made a very recent video
showing her entire portfolio and today
she has more than 15 million with a profit
of R$ 232,000,
of which R$ 146,000 came from
capital gains, that is, from the appreciation of
assets and the rest came from dividends,
mainly from real estate funds.
Something very interesting about the
investment trajectory is that she has had
this portfolio registered here since 2020
and we can see the growth of this
equity. So, in 2020 she had R$
3,000 invested, she invested a little bit
every month. As she had a
larger, more relevant income, she
invested more and more. And I see
many people in the comments of
Itonilda's videos, even other
analyses of her portfolio, where they say the
following, that she only managed to build
this wealth that she has today, 15 and a
half million, in a short time, because
her YouTube channel took off,
because she sells courses,
discrediting the money she has
today. And it's important to make it very clear that there
are two completely different things
in investments, the first of which
is the contribution, which is how much you can
take from your work every month to
invest. And what's really cool about
Deonilda is that she's been investing since she was
earning very little. So when she
earned little, she invested little, she already had
this habit created. When she
started earning more, she invested
much more heavily. Because we are in
this career of creating content on the
internet, it will be 10 years now
next year. And we saw several
people appearing and disappearing. And a
very interesting point is that
people who already invested, who already had
this habit of saving, even when they
save little, when they start earning
more, they invest much more, which was the
case with Itonilda. In the same way that
other people, even earning little,
never invested anything, started earning
much more, started earning 50, 100,
200,000 per month and continued spending it
all. We know people who have
earned more than R$5 million with the
internet and today they have nothing left
because they didn't invest anything. So, if
you have a very large contribution, even
if your strategy is bad, for
example, you contribute R$50, R$100,000
per month. It's obvious that
you'll quickly reach your first million, but
with a bad long-term strategy. It
also ends up being obvious that you will
have a much worse result than if you
had a good strategy with a good
allocation of your investments.
Likewise, the guy who has a
very small investment, but a
correct strategy, a strategy according to
his profile, choosing good assets at
good prices. What happens is that you
will only see an exponential result in the
long term, even in the
channel portfolio that we have there at Games
Investing, where we contribute R$300
every month, after more than a year
that the portfolio went and reached its
first R$5,000. Meanwhile, the
guy who already earns more has a
very large capacity to contribute,
often in one month he goes there and
invests 5,000. We are not
saying that Etonilda's strategy
is bad, quite the opposite, we
will analyze this point by point now .
.
So let's be very clear, if you
invest little per month, it will take a
while for you to reach a
significant amount of wealth. So, if someone tells
you that by investing R$500 per month,
for example, you will quickly reach a million
, you can be sure that
person is lying. But in the long
run, of course, you will have a
better quality of life and
significant wealth, but it will take a long
time. Now moving on to the macro-allocation
of Itonilda's portfolio, that is, the
percentage between asset classes,
how much she has stocks, how much she has
real estate funds, how much she has fixed income.
fixed income.
Firstly, we can see that
it has 43% in fixed income and 57% in
variable income. And she herself has said in several
videos that her goal is to have half and half.
half.
And I've seen some comments, including
on her videos, complaining: "No, what do you mean
?" She's an investment content creator,
and half of
her assets are in fixed income, and when you
invest your money, it has to be
according to your profile. So,
people with a more risk-taking profile
may have a more variable approach.
Likewise, people with a
more conservative profile naturally have to have
a larger portion in fixed income.
So, in this case, I don't see
any problem. If she's more
conservative, consequently, she should
have a larger percentage of
her assets in fixed income.
But something we don't find very
interesting is the fact that she has about
R$400,000 in real estate funds, about
25% of the portfolio. Meanwhile, in
stocks, she only has R$146,000, which is
less than 10% of the total. She may even
like real estate funds that generate
passive income every month, but
we believe that stocks have
greater potential for
long-term gains. After all, stocks can
reinvest in themselves and achieve
greater growth, while
real estate funds must distribute at least 95%
of their results.
It's already more conservative, aiming to
have 50% in fixed income. So, when
investing in equities, I see that it
would be much more convenient to have a
larger percentage in equities, even if it
's half in a real estate fund and half
in equities.
Thinking from the perspective of
portfolio safety, when we imagine an
extreme scenario like hyperinflation,
equities are the best
investment vehicle. After all, companies
can actually pass on inflation. And
we can take a
recent example; just take a look at the Argentine stock market
. So, our
Argentine friends experienced very
strong hyperinflation a few years ago. And the stock market,
of course not automatically, but
over time, began to pass on this
inflation. And the Merval index has risen around
1,000, 2,000% in recent years.
And adding Bitcoin, equities outside
of Brazil, and fixed income also outside of
Brazil, it has 25% of the portfolio. And at
this point, we see that it was a great
success for Itonilda, because this way
she diversifies her assets, she
manages to avoid the Brazilian risk by having
international assets. So, today, for
Brazilians, their
salary, their active income, depends on
Brazil performing at least well, on
Brazil not failing. Likewise,
if you take all your assets and
leave them here, you have the risk of your
active income and the risk of all your
assets. And besides, outside of
Brazil, we have sectors, we have
companies that you can't
expose yourself to here. Oh, I want to expose myself
to the technology sector, the
artificial intelligence sector. There, you have an
Apple, an Nvidia, a Meta.
Meanwhile, here in Brazil, we don't have this
technology sector. The most you
'll find here on the Brazilian stock exchange
would be a positive one. Furthermore,
Itonilda has R$156,000
in Bitcoin, which is approximately 10% of the
portfolio that comes from her profile of 50% in
fixed income, a more
conservative person. I found a position
quite bold, but I've seen several
videos by Itonilda where she
strongly believes in Bitcoin in the long term.
Furthermore, she's already said she intends to
buy a little bit until she
reaches a full Bitcoin. So,
since Bitcoin is currently over R$
600,000, there's still a journey to achieve this,
and I believe she'll continue
buying little by little. And remember,
this 10% that Bitcoin represents
wasn't a one-time thing—oh, I'm going to put 10% of
my portfolio in Bitcoin. She
bought little by little, and Bitcoin, due to its
significant appreciation in recent
years, made this position
this size. So much so that in Itonilda's portfolio
, only Bitcoin experienced a
variation, rising 91%. And here comes another
great lesson that always comes from the confidence
you have in a given asset.
So, even though she's more
conservative, she believes in Bitcoin and
is willing to deal with this volatility.
volatility.
Not that a
10% Bitcoin investment is for everyone. It varies greatly depending on
each person's profile, goals, and,
of course, their own. particularities, such as
age, family size, dependents.
And she also shows her profitability
over the last five years, which was 78.5%,
which was above the CDI, Ibovespa,
IFIX, and DOPCA. So, it was a
good return. And in the last 12
months, the portfolio yielded 15%, a
return consistent with
her investor profile. And now we'll
see what drove this portfolio up
and down. Let's now look at
her microallocation, that is, what
she bought within each of the
investment classes, starting with
stocks, of which she has six assets.
Regarding the distribution of the
stock portfolio, I see that there's a concentration
here in the banking sector, which represents
about 40% of the entire
stock portfolio. And as much as the banking sector is
doing very well here in Brazil, we
always have to think of the worst-case scenario.
So, imagine with me: the banks are
there with increasingly higher profits,
breaking record after record. And
we know, the lion is hungry, the
government He needs money, he's short on
money. And someone
in Brasília might at some point say,
"Wow, the banks here are making
so much money, let's add an
extra tax so we can get a
slice of it." And this
measure could affect the banking sector,
collapse en masse, and his portfolio, which is
somewhat concentrated, could suffer more than it
should. So I think it would be
nice to dilute this share of the
banking sector. But let's start here with the
first stock, the largest position in
his portfolio, which is Honey 3,
Iranique. It has about R$34,000 and
this company operates in the pulp and
paper sector, focusing on paper and
packaging. And as you already know, the
pulp and paper sector is a
commodity sector. So, at the end of the day, Irani
doesn't fully control the price of its
goods. In other words, it's a
cyclical company, and like its peers on the
Ibovespa, it's currently going through the
low part of the cycle. So its
margins are under pressure, debt is weighing,
but even so, it has Having delivered good
operations, it has generated value for
shareholders. And here I see it as a
position of patience. Until the cycle
turns, the company will remain in this position.
But when the cycle turns, it's possible there will
be a capital gain from this
position. In the meantime, of course, the company
is paying dividends. I like
Irani, but I prefer others in the sector here
in Brazil.
Now you're going to get off the bridge,
Rodrigão. Which one do you prefer in the sector?
sector?
Look, in the pulp and paper sector, I
prefer Clabin. There are a few
reasons, but perhaps the main one
is the product mix, the portfolio that
Clabin has today. So it has
pulp, paper, packaging. All of this,
in my view, contributes to its being
a little more resilient than its
peers. The second largest share position
is Banco do Brasil. So, we
talk a lot about Banco do Brasil here in the
channel's videos, but to summarize for
you, this whole issue of
agribusiness defaults happened, and accounting changes
too. And it's clear to us that the bank
will go through... a difficult time in the
coming quarters, but even so,
that doesn't detract from the quality of the company, which
is indeed very good. It was the first CNPJ (National Registered Company) in
Brazil, it's far from going bankrupt, and
even in this bad scenario, it's making a profit of around
3.84 billion per quarter. So, it
's not all bad. And besides,
the average price of Eonilda is also very
good. So, there's no need to worry here,
but I want to leave a warning for those who
think Banco do Brasil is on
sale, is buying up truckloads of its
position, deviating from their planning.
Is Banco do Brasil,
going through a difficult time in the
coming quarters, really the best choice
among banks right now? Wouldn't it be
more interesting to choose a bank
with record profit after record
profit, which is in a good moment,
rather than a bank that is good but
will have to recover? What will
the result be in a few
years in each of these positions? That's what
's important for us to think about.
Many people already had Banco do
Brasil in their portfolios, and then because of this
decline, they want to concentrate even more.
So, for example, they already had 20% of the
stock portfolio was in Banco do Brasil, then it
dropped, so they want to concentrate it to 30,
40%. There's an
opportunity cost. So, with the money
you're buying Banco do Brasil,
you could be buying other
companies that present a clearer opportunity .
.
The next stock is ISERG. This is
a very good company, in the
electric power sector, in the
transmission segment, which is the most defensive in the
electric power sector. So, its job
is very simple. It sets up the entire
transmission line infrastructure
and has to keep these lines 100%
available for power transmission. And
regardless of how much
power is transmitted, it will receive the
contracted revenue. In other words, it's a very
predictable company; the market likes
predictability, and so do we. The
next position is Banco ABC,
whose core business is
corporate credit. That is, instead of
lending to individuals, they
lend to companies of various
sizes, to CNPJs. I see it as an
interesting segment. The bank has a
decent ROI of around 16, 17%, and due
to its customer profile, it has a
controlled default rate. I see it as
a good bank, focused on
dividends, but when we talk about
pension banks, I have other
options that I consider better, such as
Banco Itaú. And if we
think a little further into
growth banks, I see Banco Inter and
BTG Pactual as very well positioned. The
next position is Home shares.
So, Home is an industrial company.
It produces equipment and parts
primarily for industry here in Brazil,
and it ends up being a cyclical company.
After all, when the economy is doing well,
we're in a boom period,
its orders start to increase, and it
can generate much more revenue and
profit. However, when we
're in a bad economic moment, like
the current one, with a slowdown, its
orders will slow down, and then it goes
through a more difficult time,
now being in the trough of the cycle. And to
illustrate this, the company itself always
publishes this index chart in its reports.
of confidence among
industrial entrepreneurs. And as we
can see here, the index
is currently almost at the same level as it was
during the pandemic. What does this mean
? That industrialists, those in
charge of the national industry, aren't
very confident in expanding their
production capacity, in purchasing more
machinery, more equipment, and all of this
ends up affecting the home.
And it's because of all these factors that
the Home has been falling significantly, including
here in Etonilda's portfolio, where it's experiencing a
negative variation of 38%.
In other words, the Home ultimately ends up being
a good company, but it's not at the best
of its cycle right now. So it
's also a position that investors need to
be patient to reap the
rewards. And the smallest position in
Eonilda's stock portfolio is Sanepar Spr11. It's
a sanitation company that operates in
the state of Paraná and is a company
we really like; it's even
in the portfolio of the Gêmeos
Investaneamento channel. There's no secret to that. It's
one of the segments, one of the most
defensive sectors we have, with a lot of
predictability and that pays Great
dividends. So, here's an excellent position.
position.
Taking a broader view of this portion of
Itonilda's shares, in addition to the issue
Rodrigão raised about the
very high concentration in the
banking sector, I see that there could be a
company in the insurance sector, which is a
very defensive sector. I see that it
fits Itonilda's profile here,
and at the same time, it's a sector that does well
in high interest rates, does well in low interest rates.
And in my view, we do have an opportunity
to buy, for example, BB
Seguridade. And besides, it
only has one energy company. I see
that it might be interesting for it to have one
more, or even a TAA, or even go
directly into distribution and
energy generation. And I see many
people who go there, build their
investment portfolio, but have
that insecurity. Am I on the
right path? Does this
investment portfolio I have
align with my
life goals? Because an investment portfolio is
something that should be unique to each
person, because each human being will have
a different risk profile, will have a
different objective. has a
different age. And that's why we have
DNA Capital, our
fully personalized investment consultancy.
What will make the biggest difference in the short
term for you to build a large
estate is your work, your
active income. And because of this, most
people are focused on
working, on generating more value to
earn more money. They don't have all that
time to monitor the market,
understand what's happening, understand
what's an opportunity, understand what's not
. And because of this, we have D
Capital, which, in the description,
will include the website so you can better understand
how it works, and there's a button for you to
talk to our consultants and get
a free analysis of your portfolio.
If you don't have an investment portfolio yet
, have your money in
a little box in a CDB, we can build this
plan from scratch for you.
Rodrigão, who is here with us, is
our R in consulting who creates
client portfolios.
And we're currently approaching 100
families served by DN Capital, and the
feedback is excellent.
So we build
personalized portfolios with in the goals,
in the family, in everything in the lives of the
investors who are with us. And the
invitation is there for you to join
in too. Let's now look at
Itonilda's direct treasury, fixed income,
which is a significant portion of
her portfolio. And we can see that she has
135,000 in the Selic treasury and 214,000
in the IPCA+ treasury with a shorter maturity of 2029.
2029.
The Selicer treasury portion offers
opportunities. So, if there's a big
drop in equities, she can go there and
take a slice of it and allocate it wherever it's worth
it. And of course, in
addition, the SELIC treasury
will always be growing, always
yielding returns. Sometimes
faster with the high SELIC, as it is now,
other times slower. And
regarding the IPCA+, since she bought the
shortest available bond,
her goal is probably to hold it
to maturity. But here we
see that she would have better
opportunities, perhaps buying
longer-term bonds, not the longer ones, but rather the
PCA plus 2040, at the latest. 2050. This way,
she would have the chance to lock in high rates
for a long time and also, who knows,
gain on mark-to-market in
a few years.
Maybe it would even be more interesting, right,
Rodrigão, for her to have a larger share in the
Selic treasury and at the same time have a
slightly smaller share in the PC Plus, but
take a longer term, because this
way she will have the security of the
Selic treasury and at the same time she will have
exposure to an IPCA bond with
a longer term, being able to lock in a
good rate for a longer period. It
's a good idea, huh, Mateus? This way, she doesn't
increase much risk in this part of the
portfolio and has a greater potential for profitability.
profitability.
Etonilda's RIT portion, which is like
the real estate funds in the
United States, you can see that she is
quite minimalist because she
only put one RIT in the portfolio, which is O,
ends up being one of the largest in
market value in the United States. They have
over 15,600 properties, that is, it
is highly diversified. They even have
properties outside the United States, and
83% is in the United States, 13% in the United
Kingdom, and the remainder distributed in Europe.
Europe.
Personally, if I were to invest in
REITs, I would buy an ETF, for example,
VNQ. After all, even though O is highly
diversified, management is ultimately
concentrated. So, by having an ETF,
we can diversify most
of these risks. And still in ETFs, she has
VTI, which invests in the
global market. It has over 9,000 companies
within it. I see it as
an interesting position for those who
are not so optimistic about the United
States, because ultimately you
expose yourself to the global market. However, I
see it as perhaps interesting for her to
have an ETF of stocks in the United States
to expose herself primarily to the
growth of technology companies.
So any ETF that replicates the S&P 500
would serve as a VOO, a Spy, because looking at
Etonilda's portfolio, she is not very
exposed to the US technology sector
, which in our view ends up
being an essential and very
important sector that has brought a... high
growth for investors.
Furthermore, the second ETF she has in the United
States is the TFLO, which ends up being
a very short-term fixed income fund. It's
like a dollar-denominated cash box. We don't
know Itonilda's exact strategy
, but perhaps she could have this
cash in an extremely safe fixed income ETF
because she's
waiting for a better opportunity
to buy American companies. She sees
that now is not the time, so it could be a
strategic move that could yield good results.
results.
Now let's look at the asset class that holds
the largest position in Etonilda's portfolio :
:
real estate funds. And is that okay? I see
that she has few assets for this
R$400,000 portion. In other words, the
specific risk here ends up being very
high. By adding more assets,
she can dilute some of this risk.
Here, the largest concentration is in the
hybrid segment, which represents 41% of the portfolio.
At the end of the day, it's not exactly a
concentration. After all, when we
talk about hybrid real estate funds,
they are exposed to at least two
segments. So, there... There's
diversification. I think the
paper portion, which currently represents 22% of the
portfolio, could be a little higher,
reaching 30, 32%. This
would allow her to increase the dividend yield
she receives every month.
Furthermore, she has a shopping mall in her portfolio,
with 5% of the
real estate fund portion, but I think it could
be a little higher for this segment.
Especially with a
very strong real estate fund segment here in Brazil.
So, like it or not, families
use the mall not only for
shopping. It's a leisure time
where they go for lunch. Today, in several
malls here in Brazil,
the service portion has increased significantly. So, there are
gyms in the mall, there are hairdressers.
Soon, it will even be possible to have
doctors in some malls, where
people will be born in the mall and may even
pass away if there is a
cemetery in the mall itself.
So, something very important here in Brazil,
especially because public safety,
especially in capital cities, is very
precarious. So,
families are often afraid to walk down the
street, away from a shopping center, and they feel
more vulnerable. safe within the mall. And
because of this, it ends up being a
very interesting segment. Speaking of assets,
let's start with the largest position in
real estate funds, which is ALZR11, which It
's a hybrid fund that I
really like, particularly, it has
atypical contracts that bring more
security to the fund, it operates in several
segments, including data centers, and has
a very diversified portfolio.
However, practically 1/4 of the
real estate funds' share is in LZR and here I
see that it is a large concentration.
In the end, although it is a great
real estate fund, it also has its points
of concern and the biggest one today, in my
view, is its leverage, which already
represents more than 40% of its
net worth. So here I see that it would be
nice to dilute this slice of ALZR. And since
Itonilda makes large contributions every
month, she wouldn't even need to sell. So
when she contributes, she will make
her investment for the month, contributing
to others, which will consequently
reduce the share she has in this one .
.
Her second largest fund is HGLG.
This is an exceptional fund, you
know we like it, it operates in the
logistics sector and
the main asset for me,
besides management, is the location of the
properties. So they have a good chunk
of the real estate in the East Mile. And Lest Mil,
for those who don't know, are properties that are within a
radius of 25 to 30 km from large
urban centers, which is where
consumption actually occurs. So properties
close to the end consumer make
delivery faster.
Companies want this. After all, if you
buy something online and it
takes, I don't know, five, if any, business days, it's
an eternity. You pay more to
receive faster. This makes
this location very interesting
for logistics real estate funds.
But here I see that there would be room for at least
one more logistics real estate fund
in her portfolio. The next fund is
KNSC1. It's a paper fund managed
by Kineia, one of the best asset managers
in the country today. And
his portfolio is indexed practically
half to the IPCA, half to the CDI, that is, it
is a real estate fund that does well in
various economic cycles.
Etonild's next fund is HGRU11. A great
fund too, in my view, a
hybrid fund. And the highlight, in my view,
for HGRU, is the work that the manager has been
doing. So, we pay fees to
management so that they can do a good
job, an active job. And in the case
of HGRU, the latest
real estate negotiations were very good for shareholders.
After all, management managed to sell several
properties above their
appraised value, that is, generating value for
the shareholder. After all, everything that comes in
extra will be distributed at some
point. And HGRU's point of attention is
its concentration on the main
tenants. There I see that he could
dilute these tenants a little and
reduce the fund's risk.
Her next fund is BC11, a FOF that I saw
in her latest videos that she was going to
sell. After all, her goal with this
asset was to make a capital gain.
After all, a FOF tends to
grow when the
real estate fund market also appreciates. And then,
according to her, she reached that goal and
will make the sale. In my view, if
we really want to have a
capital gain, it would be more interesting to have it in
shares. After all, they have a
greater potential to bring a greater profit and there is also
the issue of income tax.
Therefore, capital gains on
real estate funds are taxed. In shares,
there are movements of up to R$20,000, R$
1,000. No. The next fund is MX RF11.
This is the fund with the most shareholders on
B3 and has most likely been the
change fund for most of you. There's
not much to say here, I consider it to
be a great real estate fund in the
paper segment. The next one is PMLL11, which is a
shopping mall segment fund. And she
also said she was going to sell this fund,
but here I think it would be interesting to
exchange it for more interesting names in
my view, such as XPML or
HGBS11, which from a portfolio point of view
are superior and of course
increase this shopping share
in the portfolio as a whole a little.
And what we see is that Itonilda's portfolio
is very consistent with
her investor profile.
However, like any other
portfolio analysis video on the channel, we see
that there are some points where we would
invest differently. Remembering that
here in the description link there is the
Capital website so you can have your
portfolio analyzed. So that's it, comment what
you think of Itonilda's wallet and see you in
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