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Johan Galtung: Peace and Conflict Studies
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thank you so much indeed
i appreciate the problem you have right
now with time
kick me down after 10 minutes i'll not
talk more than that
1980 i made a prognosis
which was based on theory and based on
quite intimate knowledge of what was happening
happening
that the berlin wall would fall within
10 years
and would be followed by the fall of the
soviet empire
i saw the berlin wall as the weakest
point in the soviet construction
it fell two months ahead of time
how could i do that how could i say that
well there is something called
holistic and dialectic thinking
and a search for equity those three
words are key
if you go to u.s intellectualism you
will find no holism
no dialectics and if you look up equity
under an index in a book you will see
c mortgages now there is a point here
which is important because some of the
birds they now have been quoting
come from the orient that do not come
from the occident
my own experience is that i had to
travel east
to understand more about peace and south
i'm deeply impressed with the african
civilization deeply impressed very much underestimated
underestimated
i'm deeply impressed with what is
happening in latin america
i think three basic things are happening
in the world now
point one the fall of the u.s empire
point two the decline of the west
point three a new category
added to the old ones less developed countries
countries
ldc more developed countries
mdc presided over by washington d.c
and the new category is developing countries
countries
headed as usual by anglo-america
watch what's happening let me go a
little bit more into detail
the us imperial fall
i would give it at most until 2020
means four concrete things and they're all
all
to the advantage of the u.s itself
and the world point one
militarily stop killing
not demanding disarmament what should be
demanded is
conflict resolution sit down with the
party even if you don't like him
and try to find out what he wants
i'm shuttling between afghanistan and
washington myself
it's a tough job point two
politically stop twisting arms stop
threatening negotiation
put the cards on the table have a look
at all the arguments
you have good arguments sometimes washington
washington
you don't have to do that arms twisting
and threatening
point three the most difficult one
to start with instead of believing that
you have all the
answers civilizational dialogue
there is more than one civilization in
the world
the west has a lot of good things to offer
offer
so does the islamic civilization
buddhist civilization japanese chinese
african civilization
dialogues on equal terms
and the last point almost impossible for
the us
due to the heavy influence of u.s economists
economists
try to understand what equitable deals means
means
it means when you run down the pyramid
that have made
deals that you don't only count willing
by a willing seller signing a document
you count the effects down to the last
it's tough it's difficult it's not an
economic city
any economist unable to predict what
september happened september 2008
should voluntarily simply demand that
he's retired
that would get rid of almost all of them
except eight
we will get rid of the international
monetary fund and the world bank
since they did not predict it would be
all to our advantage
instead we got the catastrophic bailout
instead of stimulus let us say 90 10 it
should be 10.90
and you got all the european indebtement
mainly due to that it's not due to the
welfare state
it's due to the money they put into the
stupid deal after september 2008
encouraged by the monetary fund so
having said that
i just want to add one thing the state
system itself is in decline
what is coming is the regional system
it's very big
it consists of european union the
african union
where i could add quite a lot of even
more complementary things
than the marvelous talks from the former
president of mozambique
it is of course the south asian the
southeast asian
all of them with important contributions
and the three coming ones
the united states of latin america and
the caribbean
it will take some time it starts in the
andean and it also started in a small
island in the caribbean and they have
suffered a lot
for being the first they made mistakes
some of them admitted by the boss himself
himself
they have a lot to learn but they're
very first
now having said that there is a third
next one coming
it's the islamic community from morocco
to southern philippines 57 countries 1
560 million they're not going to ask
washington for permission
they're not even going to ask brussels
for permission
and if they want the khalifat they have as
as
much right to have that as catholics of
the world who are about the same numbers
a little bit less
have to have a vatican if you want to
deny them one then deny the other two
we have to remember here that some of
these countries have been operating
under the idea of having a divine mandate
mandate
today there are only two left united
states and israel
israel's cynical use of the day
cadilla chosen people and chosen land
promised land and its aping
in 1620 by the pilgrims who went
and founded the colony has been a disaster
disaster
has to go it has to be challenged by
other civilizations
now the state system's demise will not
affect the biggest ones
not china russia india
perhaps u.s although u.s is relatively small
small
relative to the other ones in size and population
population
maybe mexico united states canada mexico
scan could be interesting
a north american combination with
wonderful people
much talent much generosity and universalism
universalism
as long as the idea of running the world
is given up
after 244 military interventions
starting in 1805 with thomas jefferson
74 after the second world war some of
them are going on and you can judge
their success
right now now
three birds are standing here they want
to say something about them
the first word is peace building if
there is a
rule in peace building i think nobody
has said it better
than juan lai and java neru
in the pantry line in the 1954 product
dominant to the bandung conference
cooperation for mutual and
equal benefit and
equal and equal
capitalism has a mutual benefit built
into it but it never had equal
you have to add other measures to make
it equal
to make it equitable some of the
measures are known
some of them are still to be found
and here comes the problem in my
experience the west
understands mutual but has never
understood equally
they always want an edge over the rest
always want that little extra be it military
military
economic politically or cultural or by cloning
cloning
by cloning by inducing the countries to
accept their cultural genes
through technical assistance
out of a conviction that their
civilization is higher
than all the others has to go
the distance from clone to clown is not
only phonetically short
now when it comes to reconciliation
there is a very basic
experience which i think many people
have made
in my own book 50 years 100 peace and
conflict perspectives
out there there are 10 experiences with reconciliation
reconciliation
and the experience is this
reconciliation before
solution of the underlying conflict is
called pacification
lollipop politics
to talk about reconciliation in today's
iraq afghanistan is ridiculous
it's an insult to human intelligence
nothing has been solved i can go further
the only thing that has been solved in
former yugoslavia
is slovenia the only thing
don't take that word in vain
and yet it was tremendously important in
south africa
because it came after the solution
which was one person one vote
i still remember the tv team from
western europe
that came to south africa and was
waiting fighting between black and black
didn't take place and they went back saying
saying
nothing is happening here it was only democracy
democracy
it was the whole thing that tells a
little bit about media
and there is psychopathic longing for
something negative
if media could learn to watch out for
the positive
they could be inspiration instead of
contributing to apathy
and pessimism so having said that
reconciliation presupposes solution
germany was accepted into the european community
community
as the first of january 1958
reconciliation came 10 years later
it came with brilliant german
leadership to a large extent by ghost of heinemann
heinemann
reworking the textbooks it was a totally
different formula for the south african ones
ones
there are many such formulas they can be
put to use
but the solution was a condition
there is of course a solution to israel
middle east
repeat 1958
if two or three arab leaders could stand
up and say we invite israel to join us
in the middle east community
we invite all countries in the world to recognize
recognize
palestine with those borders
we might consider downgrading diplomatic
relations to an israel who does not
accept this
and upgrading a palestine
israel please consider things like this
they are quite reasonable you can get
security through peace you will never get
get
peace through security the way you
pursue it
learn from germany i know that that's
the most popular phrase i can tell in
israel learn from germany
but there is some other germany learn
from it
last point globalization nothing new
has been pointed out by so many who know
their history
we had a brilliant globalization from
500 to 1500.
it was called the silk road which is a
totally wrong name
it was about much more than silk and it
was not a road
it was essentially by ship that's the
reason why it's called a silk road
now try to travel that road and you'll
have some difficulties try to go by ship
it went from east and china to
the major country in africa at a time somalia
somalia
every somali school child knows his past
he also knows who ended it western
colonialism of the most brutal kind
the portuguese to start with followed up
by the whole rest of the gang
that gang 11 of them have a union called
the european union
but i'm quite willing to say that some
changes have been observed
although i also agree with the remark
that was made
that if one of them makes a deal even a
little intervention in his former party
he assumes the others to shut up
on the condition that i shot up and you
do the same it's called gentleman's
agreement it's also called the club mafiolci
mafiolci
but if you look at this kind of
situation there
is a model that are positive things
i agree with those who say that the war
is practically speaking
unthinkable that is an achievement
that achievement should be celebrated it
should be
brought to israel and the middle east
now with the state system going down you
will not
expect people to give their lives for states
states
that's the major reason why we have less
wars among them
what is then coming up nations
200 states 194 members of the un
2 000 nations characterized by language
religion a shared visualization of
history and the future
myths and the geographical attachment
two thousand the world manages that problem
problem
extremely badly 19th century
independence maybe solution for some
generally some kind of the 30 40 major
types of federalism
would not be a bad solution in other words
words
we have challenges but the globalization
could be a repetition of the silk road
how about building a four-lane highway
through the congo
from dala salaam to the port of kinshasa
with rails of course how about
opening the south south south south trade
trade
china southeast asia east asia middle
east africa
to religion to south america
how about making a side road to somalia
to cameroon
to the afrik trail
how about doing that having enormous
amount of products and services goods
and services crossing all directions
well i made that suggestion in all modesty
modesty
which is not my characteristic actually
to the foreign policy committee
or the central committee or the cpc
the communist party of china one month ago
in a sense interesting that the peace
researcher who was accused of being a
communist but not yet terrorist
strangely enough somebody has forgotten efforts
efforts
where are you when we need you where are you
you
let me add a little footnote if i said
you had many bald people talking about
ddr congratulations for that
i made a talk in dji for the leadership
blaming them for the invasion of czech slovakia
slovakia
and comparing it to the u.s invasion of vietnam
vietnam
and out came two star cities closed in black
black
and carried me out to the
limousine that they had mobilized
outside but they made a mistake
they hadn't seen that the microphone had
a cable that was loose
so that they could talk while they
carried me
and i said ladies and gentlemen as a
farewell remark
it looks like i'm leaving
the experience with all empires in the
world including the soviet empire is
that sooner or later they go under
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