0:00 hey there and welcome back to heimlich's
0:01 history now we've been going through
0:02 unit four of the ap government
0:03 curriculum and in this video that means
0:05 it's time to talk about how we measure
0:07 public opinion so if you're ready to get
0:08 them brain cows milked with a low
0:10 sampling error then let's get to it so
0:12 this video is simple and here's what
0:13 we're trying to do describe the elements
0:15 of a scientific poll okay now so far in
0:17 this unit we've been talking about how
0:18 people come to hold certain political
0:20 beliefs and all sorts of people
0:21 especially politicians are interested in
0:23 knowing those beliefs so how can they do
0:25 that well the main way we measure public
0:26 opinion is through scientific polls
0:28 which is to say we ask people what they
0:30 believe and hopefully they tell us the
0:32 information that pollsters get from
0:34 these polls have a big impact on
0:35 elections and policy debates if a poll
0:37 is created with scientific rigour then
0:39 they are the best tools we have for
0:40 measuring public opinion the process
0:42 includes writing questions that are as
0:43 free from bias as possible and then
0:45 presenting them to a small randomized
0:47 group of people and then generalizing
0:49 those results to the larger population
0:51 so first let's have a look at the
0:52 different ways pollsters measure public
0:54 opinion and then we'll have a look at
0:55 how they know those results are accurate
0:57 so there are four different kinds of
0:58 polls that you need to know first is an
1:00 opinion poll which is exactly what it
1:02 sounds like pollsters use an opinion
1:03 poll to get a feel for the public's
1:04 opinion on a certain topic or discerning
1:06 people's feelings on certain candidates
1:08 or policies so when a candidate starts
1:10 making speeches and promising certain
1:12 things it's not because the candidate is
1:13 just pulling those policies out of thin
1:15 air no they have paid attention to the
1:17 opinion polls and are now making
1:19 promises based on what the people
1:20 actually want second is a benchmark poll
1:22 this is a poll taken at the beginning of
1:24 a candidate's run this gives the
1:25 campaign a benchmark against which they
1:27 can compare future polls to see how the
1:29 candidate is fairing benchmark polls
1:31 often focus on a candidate's messaging
1:33 when they figure out which messages are
1:34 resonating with voters they'll spend
1:35 more time on those messages and throw
1:37 the others away third is a tracking poll
1:39 these are polls that are conducted over
1:40 time usually with the same group of
1:42 people and that gives information on how
1:44 the group feels about an issue this
1:45 helps a candidate shape his or her
1:47 campaign promises especially when the
1:48 election is near and fourth you have
1:50 entrance and exit polls and these are
1:52 polls conducted at voting sites and ask
1:54 people how they voted if they ask them
1:55 before a person goes in to vote that's
1:57 called an entrance poll if they ask
1:58 after they have voted that's an exit
2:00 poll these kind of polls are among the
2:01 most desirable because they're measuring
2:03 actual voters not just people who may
2:05 say they're gonna vote and then don't
2:07 for whatever reason well it's election
2:08 day but
2:10 my toe here ain't gonna shave itself so
2:13 okay so those are the different kinds of
2:14 polls you need to know and their purpose
2:16 is to measure public opinion now the
2:18 real question is this how do we know
2:19 that these measurements are legitimate
2:21 well the short answer is that good polls
2:24 are created with scientific rigor so how
2:26 do they do that well the first thing you
2:27 need to know is how researchers choose
2:29 the people they're going to ask and for
2:30 that let's talk about sampling
2:32 techniques pollsters always measure
2:33 public opinion by means of a sample i
2:36 mean think about it if you're a pollster
2:37 and you want to measure public opinion
2:38 then the best way would be to ask every
2:40 american of voting age what they think
2:42 about an issue but then you'd be
2:44 surveying like 256 million people and
2:47 just in case you'd like those results
2:48 and fewer than 400 years you're gonna
2:50 need to measure the opinion of a sample
2:52 of those people now in order to be
2:53 scientifically rigorous a sample first
2:56 needs to be representative which is to
2:58 say the sample needs to have the same
2:59 characteristics as the larger population
3:01 that it's measuring so if you want to
3:02 know what millennials think about the
3:04 legalization of marijuana then you need
3:05 to ask a small sample of millennials and
3:08 not senior citizens now sample also
3:09 needs to be random which means that
3:11 everyone in a given population has an
3:13 equal chance of being included now once
3:14 a pollster has gathered a representative
3:16 random sample then he or she makes sure
3:18 that the makeup of the sample matches
3:20 the larger population and then makes
3:21 adjustments if need be so the
3:23 percentages of the samples should match
3:24 the percentages of the population when
3:26 it comes to demographic categories like
3:28 male female race ethnicity socioeconomic
3:30 status etc and once all those balances
3:32 have been achieved then the pollster can
3:34 measure their opinion on an issue and
3:35 then generalize those responses to the
3:37 larger population that the sample
3:39 represents now in a perfect world the
3:41 sample would match the general
3:42 population's opinions exactly but if
3:44 you've been alive for more than five
3:45 minutes you already know that we do not
3:47 in fact live in a perfect world so that
3:49 means there's always the possibility of
3:50 sampling error which means that there is
3:52 always a chance that the sample will not
3:54 exactly represent the general population
3:56 however in general if a pole has a plus
3:58 or minus three sampling error that's
3:59 considered a good and representative
4:01 pole so getting a good sample is one way
4:03 the pollsters know that the results are
4:04 legitimate another way they strive for
4:06 accuracy is by asking neutral questions
4:08 and this just means that the questions
4:09 are neither confusing nor leading and
4:11 scientific pollsters take great care in
4:13 making sure that their questions measure
4:14 what they really want to know because
4:16 the way questions are worded can have a
4:18 big effect on results for example if you
4:20 wanted to measure public opinion on
4:21 covid vaccines here are two ways to ask
4:23 the question should the government
4:24 violate people's personal liberty by
4:26 requiring vaccination against covet 19
4:28 or should a covet-19 vaccination be
4:30 required depending on how you word that
4:32 question the results will uh vary now
4:34 the last thing we need to talk about is
4:36 survey methodology and the different
4:37 ways pollsters can measure public
4:39 opinion and for our purposes you just
4:41 need to know two first is the mass
4:42 survey and really most of what i've said
4:44 in this video applies to the mass survey
4:46 technique this is when pollsters put
4:48 together a questionnaire that can be
4:49 given to as many people as possible and
4:51 since they're going big with a survey
4:52 like this mass surveys can really only
4:54 measure quantitative data so if a group
4:56 wants to know how many people favor a
4:58 change in immigration laws that's what a
4:59 mass survey is for on the other end of
5:01 the spectrum is the focus group which is
5:03 when pollsters measure the opinion of a
5:05 small group of people this method is
5:06 better for collecting qualitative data
5:08 which provides more in-depth data about
5:10 how people feel and think the benefit of
5:12 a focus group is that respondents can
5:13 flap their mouth hole at length about
5:15 their opinions rather than just being
5:17 confined to a couple of options on a
5:18 survey question now maybe it's obvious
5:20 but focus groups aren't considered
5:21 scientific polling because their
5:23 opinions can't really be statistically
5:24 generalized to the larger population
5:26 however focus groups can help a
5:28 candidate refine his or her message okay
5:30 thanks for watching click right here and
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5:32 help you get an a in your class and a
5:33 five on your exam in may and if this
5:34 video helped you and you want me to keep
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5:37 and i shall oblige heimler out
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