YouTube Transcript:
Measuring PUBLIC OPINION [AP Gov Review_ Unit 4 Topic 5 (4_5)]

hey there and welcome back to heimlich's
history now we've been going through
unit four of the ap government
curriculum and in this video that means
it's time to talk about how we measure
public opinion so if you're ready to get
them brain cows milked with a low
sampling error then let's get to it so
this video is simple and here's what
we're trying to do describe the elements
of a scientific poll okay now so far in
this unit we've been talking about how
people come to hold certain political
beliefs and all sorts of people
especially politicians are interested in
knowing those beliefs so how can they do
that well the main way we measure public
opinion is through scientific polls
which is to say we ask people what they
believe and hopefully they tell us the
information that pollsters get from
these polls have a big impact on
elections and policy debates if a poll
is created with scientific rigour then
they are the best tools we have for
measuring public opinion the process
includes writing questions that are as
free from bias as possible and then
presenting them to a small randomized
group of people and then generalizing
those results to the larger population
so first let's have a look at the
different ways pollsters measure public
opinion and then we'll have a look at
how they know those results are accurate
so there are four different kinds of
polls that you need to know first is an
opinion poll which is exactly what it
sounds like pollsters use an opinion
poll to get a feel for the public's
opinion on a certain topic or discerning
people's feelings on certain candidates
or policies so when a candidate starts
making speeches and promising certain
things it's not because the candidate is
just pulling those policies out of thin
air no they have paid attention to the
opinion polls and are now making
promises based on what the people
actually want second is a benchmark poll
this is a poll taken at the beginning of
a candidate's run this gives the
campaign a benchmark against which they
can compare future polls to see how the
candidate is fairing benchmark polls
often focus on a candidate's messaging
when they figure out which messages are
resonating with voters they'll spend
more time on those messages and throw
the others away third is a tracking poll
these are polls that are conducted over
time usually with the same group of
people and that gives information on how
the group feels about an issue this
helps a candidate shape his or her
campaign promises especially when the
election is near and fourth you have
entrance and exit polls and these are
polls conducted at voting sites and ask
people how they voted if they ask them
before a person goes in to vote that's
called an entrance poll if they ask
after they have voted that's an exit
poll these kind of polls are among the
most desirable because they're measuring
actual voters not just people who may
say they're gonna vote and then don't
for whatever reason well it's election
day but
my toe here ain't gonna shave itself so
okay so those are the different kinds of
polls you need to know and their purpose
is to measure public opinion now the
real question is this how do we know
that these measurements are legitimate
well the short answer is that good polls
are created with scientific rigor so how
do they do that well the first thing you
need to know is how researchers choose
the people they're going to ask and for
that let's talk about sampling
techniques pollsters always measure
public opinion by means of a sample i
mean think about it if you're a pollster
and you want to measure public opinion
then the best way would be to ask every
american of voting age what they think
about an issue but then you'd be
surveying like 256 million people and
just in case you'd like those results
and fewer than 400 years you're gonna
need to measure the opinion of a sample
of those people now in order to be
scientifically rigorous a sample first
needs to be representative which is to
say the sample needs to have the same
characteristics as the larger population
that it's measuring so if you want to
know what millennials think about the
legalization of marijuana then you need
to ask a small sample of millennials and
not senior citizens now sample also
needs to be random which means that
everyone in a given population has an
equal chance of being included now once
a pollster has gathered a representative
random sample then he or she makes sure
that the makeup of the sample matches
the larger population and then makes
adjustments if need be so the
percentages of the samples should match
the percentages of the population when
it comes to demographic categories like
male female race ethnicity socioeconomic
status etc and once all those balances
have been achieved then the pollster can
measure their opinion on an issue and
then generalize those responses to the
larger population that the sample
represents now in a perfect world the
sample would match the general
population's opinions exactly but if
you've been alive for more than five
minutes you already know that we do not
in fact live in a perfect world so that
means there's always the possibility of
sampling error which means that there is
always a chance that the sample will not
exactly represent the general population
however in general if a pole has a plus
or minus three sampling error that's
considered a good and representative
pole so getting a good sample is one way
the pollsters know that the results are
legitimate another way they strive for
accuracy is by asking neutral questions
and this just means that the questions
are neither confusing nor leading and
scientific pollsters take great care in
making sure that their questions measure
what they really want to know because
the way questions are worded can have a
big effect on results for example if you
wanted to measure public opinion on
covid vaccines here are two ways to ask
the question should the government
violate people's personal liberty by
requiring vaccination against covet 19
or should a covet-19 vaccination be
required depending on how you word that
question the results will uh vary now
the last thing we need to talk about is
survey methodology and the different
ways pollsters can measure public
opinion and for our purposes you just
need to know two first is the mass
survey and really most of what i've said
in this video applies to the mass survey
technique this is when pollsters put
together a questionnaire that can be
given to as many people as possible and
since they're going big with a survey
like this mass surveys can really only
measure quantitative data so if a group
wants to know how many people favor a
change in immigration laws that's what a
mass survey is for on the other end of
the spectrum is the focus group which is
when pollsters measure the opinion of a
small group of people this method is
better for collecting qualitative data
which provides more in-depth data about
how people feel and think the benefit of
a focus group is that respondents can
flap their mouth hole at length about
their opinions rather than just being
confined to a couple of options on a
survey question now maybe it's obvious
but focus groups aren't considered
scientific polling because their
opinions can't really be statistically
generalized to the larger population
however focus groups can help a
candidate refine his or her message okay
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