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China, Russia, and Europe Are Collapsing — America Is Rising | Fall of Nations | YouTubeToText
YouTube Transcript: China, Russia, and Europe Are Collapsing — America Is Rising
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History suggests empires inevitably fall, but the United States may defy this trend due to a confluence of geographical advantages, technological leadership, and demographic resilience, while other major powers like China, Russia, and Europe face significant internal challenges and decline.
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Every empire falls. That’s what history says. Rome. Britain. The Soviets. Even today,
China and Russia are already cracking—and Europe isn’t far behind. But what if one country...
refuses to collapse? What if the last superpower standing isn’t just surviving — but thriving?
In this video, we’ll break down why America may be the only global power left standing by
the end of this century — and how geography, tech, and sheer demographic force might make
the U.S. the final empire. Not because it's perfect — but because the rest are falling
apart faster than anyone imagined. History feels like an endless, inescapable cycle,
like we’re all hamsters stuck on a wheel we can’t control even though we’re supposed to be a lot
smarter than hamsters. Empires rise, can’t expand anymore, and collapse under their own
weight as corruption and incompetence corrode their foundation from within. And now, a few
people think the United States is on its way to join them. It just feels right. An overstretched
military. A colossal debt. Political paralysis at home that’s now starting to prevent the
government from even staying open? The shoe fits, especially when the US just hit a grim statistic.
But maybe it doesn’t fit. What if history is wrong this time? That’s what everyone’s hoping for. But
to find out if it’s just a fool’s hope, we need to see when history is right. That’s not too hard.
Rome expanded rapidly, and then couldn’t afford to defend all that territory over centuries,
especially when corruption and chaos tore it apart from within. The British Empire once covered a
quarter of the globe. Then it couldn’t afford to keep its far-flung territories after the World
Wars. Most recently, the Soviet Union shocked the world by falling to pieces almost overnight. And
history didn’t stop in 1991. We’re seeing that pattern play out right now, in the country that
everybody said the 21st century would belong to – with a twist. Sometimes, superpowers don’t even
need to suffer disaster on the battlefield. All their enemies need to do is wait for the clock
to tick down. People were saying that the 21st century would be China’s. It isn’t hard to see
why with an economy that routinely grew by double digits every year. But the fertility rate wasn’t
growing with it. Just the opposite. Women tend to have fewer children when there’s more wealth
to go around. That’s been the case as far back as Ancient Rome when, the Emperor Augustus struggled
to convince Roman women to have more babies. But you could at least say he tried. China’s communist
rulers did the opposite with the One Child Policy. And lifting it didn’t stop the trend. China’s
fertility rate fell to 1.00 children per woman in 2023. That’s about the same or even lower than
Japan. That’s why China is aging faster than any major power. Right now, the median age is 40.1,
but by 2049, the year it’s supposed to be the world’s strongest country if Xi Jinping has his
way, it’ll be 51.9. Good luck trying to compete with the US military with a recruitment pool
that’s grayer than the sky during a storm. But it gets worse, because geography’s given China a
bad hand to begin with. Go south to the Strait of Malacca. 80% of China’s imported oil comes through
this narrow channel that’s oh so easy to blockade. China might have 14,500 kilometers of coastline,
but not all coastline is created equal. Since China’s coast doesn’t give it access to the
world’s oceans, it’s of limited value for an aspiring superpower. China might have expanded at
a breakneck pace, but now starting to show signs of strain as its economy slows, debts pile up,
and corruption plagues the ruling Communist Party even as Xi was supposed to clean it up. Oh,
and what’s it supposed to do about all those ghost cities? Every day, China looks less like
a superpower in waiting and more like a collapsing one – before it ever gets to where it was supposed
to be. And China’s so-called unlimited strategic partner is doing even worse. To discover Russia’s
problems – and another case of imperial collapse – let’s take another trip back in time. In 1808,
Napoleon was at the height of his power. Then he decided to invade Spain. The Peninsular War was a
slow and brutal bleed on French power. The people at the time called it Napoleon’s ulcer. That’s
kind of like what China is suffering through right now. Fortunately without the bloodshed.
Then in 1812, Napoleon invaded Russia. And that was an even worse disaster. 600,000 troops went
triumphantly into the east, ready to beat the Russians on their own turf. You know how that
turned out. Fewer than 100,000 made it out. At best. That was Napoleon’s hemorrhage, and Vladimir
Putin decided to follow the example. Here’s a stat that will shock you. Start by thinking about it.
How many wars has Russia been in? Probably a lot more than you can count, not because you can’t
do the math, but because you won’t be able to name them all. Russia’s fought a lot more wars than the
current one, and longer ones, too. But now the war in Ukraine is the third deadliest in its history.
Between 200,000 and 250,000 Russian men have died far from home, and over a million have become
casualties. And the war’s had knock-off effects. Even before the end of 2022, about 400,000 men
left the country to avoid being drafted. These aren’t just ordinary people, either. They’re
among Russia’s most productive. They’re technology workers. Businessmen. People with college degrees.
Now they’re trying to find employment overseas rather than enriching Russia’s economy. These
are people that won’t be replaced, at least not anytime soon. Russia’s fertility rate is
a little better than China’s. It’s actually even gone up since the war started. In 2024 and 2025,
it’s been 1.83 children per woman. Xi is probably a little jealous of his best buddy, at least
here. But that’s still not enough to rejuvenate Russia from the losses it’s suffering. Sometimes,
empires fall because they suffer catastrophic, irreversible military defeats. France used to
be the dominant power on the European Continent and had a sprawling colonial empire. But Britain
steadily imposed its will as the 18th century unfolded. The War of the Spanish Succession
started the trend. France’s great Louis XIV was humbled. Then the Seven Years’ War defeated France
abroad. So by the time Napoleon came around, the balance of power had already changed. Britain was
prepared to outlast and ultimately defeat him. And it did. And France was never the same again,
at least not in the race between great powers. History rhymes. Russia’s been clawing territory
away from Ukraine, but at a cost it can’t afford. In the big picture, this war is a defeat,
no matter how much Putin tries to say otherwise. And you guessed it, corruption at home led to
a lot of those disasters. Russian troops have been hard-pressed even to get body armor because
officers saw black market sales as a way to make a quick buck. A quick victory over Ukraine was
supposed to rejuvenate Russia from its post-Soviet fall. Instead of making it a superpower again,
it’s accelerated Russia’s irrelevance. There’s another big irony about the war in Ukraine. For
centuries, Russia has expanded its borders to prevent an invasion. In the modern world,
those enemies have been in the west, in Europe. The Soviet Union’s end in 1991 meant that
Russia’s borders were wide open to an attack, all thanks to the European Plain that stretches from
the Pyrenees to the Urals, getting wider the further east it goes. The invasion of Ukraine
was supposed to narrow that gap a little bit – just not as little as it’s actually done. But
if Putin thought harder about it, he wouldn’t have needed to go with such a costly security strategy,
because Europe is weaker now than it’s been at any point since the 15th century. Europe got really
rich and powerful as it explored the world and planted colonies in far-off lands. The British
Empire alone controlled a quarter of the world’s landmass. Almost the entire continents of Africa
and Asia were under the control of one European power or another by the early 20th century. But
the World Wars shattered all of that. Europe was left militarily and financially decimated,
deep in debt to the former colony called the United States. For a while, Europe tried to
stay in the mix. Countries like Britain and France held onto some of their colonies for a while. But
it was useless. They just couldn’t afford to keep them. Europe did eventually recover from the wars,
but too late to keep its place at the world’s center. In 2024, Europe made up 24.7% of the
world’s GDP. That’s a fair share, but it’s far behind North America’s 30.9% and Asia’s 36.4%.
What was once the center of the world economy is increasingly a secondary player. And how’s this
for another stat that proves it? In 2008, the United States and European Union had economies
that were about equal in size. Actually, the EU was slightly in the lead, with a GDP 110% the
size of the US. Then came the Great Recession, and one bounced back far better than the other.
Between 2008 and 2023, the EU’s economy grew by 13.5%, from $16.37 trillion to $18.59 trillion.
The US? It grew by 87%, from $14.77 to $27.72 trillion. And the gap is even worse when you
look at the GDP per capita. In 2008, Europe’s GDP per capita was 76.5% of America’s level. In 2023,
it was 50%. What happened? Well, Brexit did. But that’s not the only thing. It’s hard to
be productive when your workforce is getting old – fast. It’s not quite as bad as China,
but still pretty bad. In 2023, the EU’s total fertility rate was 1.38 children per women. That’s
way below replacement, and it gets worse when you take a tour of Europe and look at how fast
the grey hairs are multiplying in its biggest economies. France is doing comparatively OK
at a rate of 1.66. Poland? 1.16. Spain? 1.12. Italy? 1.20. And the biggest of all, Germany,
is stuck at 1.39. That means only one thing. The EU’s current median age of 44.7 is going
to shoot upward faster than the rockets Americans are used to seeing on the Fourth of July. By 2050,
over half the people in Europe will be pushing 50. That means fewer workers, less tax revenue,
and overburdened healthcare systems. Europe tried to solve the problem with immigration, but
despite record levels in the last ten years, the continent’s median age still went up by 2.2 years
between 2014 and 2024. Europe also just isn’t all that good at integrating immigrants, so it’s also
brought a host of other issues. That’s a whole different can of worms, but Brexit was just one of
the consequences. Check out our recent video about the tense situation in Britain if you want to find
out more. And please consider subscribing to the channel while you’re at it. It really helps us
to go through the problems you won’t see reported on your nightly news broadcast. Anyway, Europe’s
greying population means it has the same problems China has. How’s it supposed to recruit soldiers
when half the population is already heading for retirement? It’ll have a real problem reversing
decades of lackluster military readiness. Putin’s so-called “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine
jolted Europe into finally trying to meet NATO’s 2% benchmark for defense spending,
but in 2024, the EU’s defense expenditures were still only a collective 1.9%. It’s progress,
but Europe still depends on the United States for its security, and that’s probably not going to
change for a long time. Could be a bad situation if the United States is supposed to fall from
superpower status. But people don’t talk about American exceptionalism for nothing. Head across
the Atlantic and you’ll notice something. It’s a wide ocean, and it’s the first secret to American
exceptionalism. The United States has an even wider ocean to the west, and that’s the second
secret. The closest example would be Britain at the height of its power, where it had the English
Channel to guard against invasion and the Royal Navy to rule the waves. It worked really well,
but it fell short once air power became a thing in the World Wars. But even in this age of air power,
a raid on the United States is unthinkable. It takes a lot of fuel to cross an ocean, and no
one else has the refueling tankers to get their aircraft across those oceans in numbers. In 2024,
the United States has 606 refueling tankers – 75% of the world’s total. Russia? Third in the
world with … 19. China didn’t even make the top five. Sure, the oceans don’t protect the
United States as well from intercontinental ballistic missiles. Russia and China have
ICBMs that can hit the contiguous United States. But they’d have to think really hard about it,
since they’d get hit back. The geographical advantage remains. Nowhere in history has a great
power been so well-protected from rivals by its position. And the United States? It can use its
military against any target in the world within a day, all without risking the use of its ICBMs.
That’s because America has a sprawling network of allies and partners. NATO is just the tip of the
iceberg. The United States has at least 128 bases across 49 countries around the world. Over 170,000
troops are deployed overseas at any given time. It’s a vast logistical forward-operating network,
and it gives the United States the ultimate advantage – it can hit at its enemies,
while its enemies can’t cross the oceans to hit it. We’ll put it bluntly. No other superpower ever
had such a cheat code. But you don’t have to go overseas to find the only cheat code in the game
of empires. Just look at a chart of the United States compared to the places people used to say
could become a superpower. China, Russia, Europe, you know their demographic problems now. Across
the oceans, the United States is the only major power whose population is still growing. By 2050,
the median age in America will be 41.9. Not fantastic, but far better than China’s 51.9.
Ironically, the American fertility rate hit a record low of 1.59 in 2024. That’s lower than
Russia’s and not much better than Germany’s. But the United States sees about a million new legal
immigrants arrive every year, and that’s helping to keep the population pyramid from becoming the
upside-down basket case it’s becoming in China. That means more productivity, more soldiers,
and less of the national income spent on pensions and healthcare. Those immigrants aren’t the ones
sneaking over the southern border. The ones that come in legally are often there to go to America’s
world-class universities, which prepare them to contribute to the national economy. Just look at
the trend. In 2000, only 16.4% of America’s STEM workforce was foreign-born. In 2019,
it was 23.1%. That’s because the United States is still the place to be to start a business
or a family. Its tech sector leads the world despite increased competition from China. True,
monitors like the Insikt Group think that China’s AI models are only a few months behind America’s,
and China produces half the world’s AI researchers compared to 18% from the United States. But,
it’s all about the money, and America can make it rain. America still dwarfs China in private AI
investment - $67.2 billion in 2023 compared to its rival’s $7.8. That’s because of America’s second
secret weapon. It has a culture of innovation and entrepreneurship that China can’t match,
because in China, especially Xi Jinping’s China, everything has to conform to the glories
of socialism. And China isn’t exactly a place that’s set to attract the world’s top talent.
America can combine immigration and innovation to produce the best results in ways its rivals
can’t. It’s better at integration than Europe is. That’s part of why Europe is growing regulations
more than it’s growing its economy. America’s success isn’t just luck. It’s because of its
constitutional architecture. As others falter, it only becomes more obvious. But it’s not all
smooth sailing for the United States. There’s no guarantee it’ll stay on top. Historically high
immigration levels are doing more than growing its population. Its growing housing costs,
too – and helping to polarize America’s politics. Its democratic institutions continue to function,
but increasingly on shaky ground. Case in point? The federal government is having a hard time even
staying open. Between 1980 and 1996, there were six government shutdowns lasting a combined 30
days. Between 2013 and 2025, there were four, and they’re lasting longer – a combined 67 days
and counting as of October 13th. And the shutdowns are a sign. Here’s that statistic we talked about
at the beginning. Since the United States is having trouble paying its bills, it's staring
off a precipice it doesn’t want to look down on. In 2024, the United States spent more on debt
service than on defense - $1.01 trillion compared to $907.7 billion. It’s been called the “Ferguson
Limit,” after the economic historian Niall Ferguson. Want to know why superpowers collapse?
According to him, this is a sure-shot mark: “Any great power that spends more on debt service than
on defense will not stay great for very long. True of Habsburg Spain, true of ancien régime France,
true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire, this law is about to be put to the test
by the U.S. beginning this very year.” And with America’s two political parties seemingly
more eager to argue about transgender bathrooms than address issues like this (it’s better for
fundraising), you might be forgiven for thinking the country is already in decline. But there’s one
more secret weapon. The US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Investors want to go into the
US economy because for all the reasons we’ve gone over, it’s still the surest thing. That
was something those other superpowers didn’t have, and it’s something that China doesn’t have now.
That means that for all its problems, the United States can still confidently plan to
return people to the moon by 2028, while China is more limited on planning what to do with all its
ghost cities. But do you think America is truly exceptional, or will its power decline along with
its rivals – and every other superpower before it? Don’t forget to let us know in the comments.
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