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My NEW Crypto Exit Plan (Sooner Than I Thought)
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In 2021, I watched over a million
dollars vanish because I didn't have a
proper plan to exit the market. In 2024,
I also roundt a significant amount
again. Although I did better that year
than 2021, I still didn't maximize my
gains. So today, I'm going to show you
the exact framework that I'm using this
time around to actually lock in my gains
this cycle. Because everyone talks about
when you should buy, but for some reason
there's this stigma about when you
should sell. Even though that's such an
important concept to master in crypto,
in markets in general, it's not about
what you make, it's about what you
actually keep. At the end of the day,
that's the only number that ends up
mattering. So, I did an exit plan video
a few months ago, but I wanted to do an
updated version today because a lot has
changed. We've had a significant runup
on Ethereum, Bitcoin, altcoins, and also
my thinking around my exit strategy has
also slightly changed. In fact, I'm
already starting to implement some of
the stuff that I spoke about in last
video. So, I thought I'd do an updated
full strategy for you today to help you
make sure that you lock in your profits
this cycle. So before I give you the
exact exit plan, let's firstly talk
about some of my mistakes in the past.
The first mistake was last cycle I got
attached to arbitrary numbers. So I was
obsessed with the thought of Bitcoin
going to $80,000. Now of course it went
to $69,000 and because I had this price
target in my head, I didn't actually
sell even though some of the top signals
were starting to emerge in the market.
But ultimately the market didn't care
about my number. It didn't care that I
was 10k off my price target. So
naturally, I fell short and ended up
roundtpping a lot of my gains. And it's
the same for your portfolio amounts as
well. If you're targeting a $50,000
portfolio, but you get to 47K, well, the
market could easily roundtrip before you
have the possibility of actually hitting
your price target, which makes price
targets in crypto not a very effective
strategy in my opinion. This time
around, I'm taking my learnings from
2021 where I became a millionaire and
then ended up roundtpping back down to a
couple hundredk and my lessons from 2024
where I've had multiple big losses which
are publicly documented. One was 1.7
million, another one was a few million.
And I'm combining all of these lessons
with the current meta in the cycle and
I've used this to put together today's
strategy. Now, before we get into the
strategy, I want to let you know that I
have a free Telegram in the description
below that I'll be using to update you
dayto-day because I understand some
people could be watching this framework
in weeks or months from now. And the
market changes every day. So, when there
are times where I decide to derisk a
portion of my portfolio, I'll be letting
you know there in a time-sensitive
manner. For example, yesterday I took
some profits on my portfolio. I went
into the Telegram and updated you guys
on that kind of stuff. So, when some of
my exit triggers from today's video
actually hit, this video is a great
overall framework. But for the actual
signal, you want to be in my Telegram
and it's free. So, you can join in the
description below and come be a part of
that community. I do daily market
updates every single day with just the
most important stuff because there's so
much noise in the market, so many
YouTube channels, so many X accounts. I
wanted to distill down the information
to make sure that you have a very clean
signal in the market. Now, let's get
into my plan. The first part of my plan
uh isn't really an exit clause, but it's
the foundation for how I'm laying out my
portfolio. And because I've laid it out
this way, it makes it a lot easier to
manage risk. And this is the two
portfolio system. So, I don't treat my
portfolio as one. I know a lot of people
just have this big portfolio that they
buy and hold and they chop in and out of
positions within a portfolio. But I
don't believe this is the correct mental
framework because it leads to
overtrading and it can also conversely
lead to overholding. What I do is I
split my portfolio up. 50% of my
portfolio is in long-term positions.
These are positions like Bitcoin,
Ethereum, Chain Link, Salana,
Hyperlquid, TAL that I'm pretty sure are
going to be here for many years or many
cycles. They've proven product market
fit. They've proven attention and mind
share and they have a big enough
solidified community that they can be
here for many years time. Now, that
doesn't mean that I won't take profits
on these assets. If Bitcoin goes crazy,
and we'll talk about some of the
triggers later in this video, then
obviously I'll want to take some profits
on my Bitcoin. If ETH goes crazy, I want
to take profits. If Chain Link goes
crazy, I want to take some profits. So,
just cuz it's a long-term portfolio
doesn't mean I'm completely absolving
myself for profit taking. I'm still
going to take profits, but it is a
long-term portfolio. So, my goal is to
continue to grow this over time. So,
there'll be periods where I cycle out,
but I won't be ever fully cycled out of
those positions cuz you also don't know
how high they can go. Bitcoin can give
you a fake out. One of your exit
triggers could hit, but you never know.
The market could have another catalyst
to keep going up. Some new legislation
or money printing or some risk on
catalyst could hit the market and then
you can instantly, you know, be priced
out of your position. So, I think it's
important to keep some exposure longterm
no matter what happens, especially in
assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The
other 50% of my portfolio is short-term.
So, my short-term portfolio is where the
majority of my DGEN stuff is housed. So
any altcoin trades, short to midterm,
even any altcoins period that I'm
holding, I probably have in my
short-term portfolio unless they're the
big cap ones because the majority of
these, they're great to make money while
the cycle's hot. But even if the asset
has product market fit, you probably
still want to exit. I'll use ENA and
Pangu as examples. Like these assets,
which I've recently added and are doing
quite well for me, but I still don't
think I want to hold Athena or Pangu for
multi multi years. Maybe there's a
chance I would hold on to a little bit
of my penu if it really exhibits product
market fit and I start to see the brand
growing bigger and bigger and bigger.
But I still think even still in a bare
market would probably get hit by 80 or
90%. So I think a good framework to have
is operate on the base case that every
altcoin is going to go to zero. Anything
better than that is a bonus. operating
on the base case that altcoins are going
to go to zero means that you are
hardwired to actually look at taking
profits or selling those positions as
opposed to bag holding them. So in the
shortterm portion of my portfolio, my
plan is to exit as much as possible. Now
I'm never going to time the exact top
and just like you'll never time the
exact bottom in the market either, but
my plan is to be a lot more aggressive
with my profit taking in that 50%. And
out of that 50%, usually I'll keep
roughly half in stables at times a
little bit more and then I'll cycle into
high conviction trades when I see an
opportunity in the market and then I'll
aggressively take profits back into
stables and I'll kind of play around
with that portfolio a little bit more. I
think the problem with most retail
investors is that they treat their
entire portfolio as like my swing
trading portfolio. So they'll chop in
and out of their Bitcoin, in and out of
their ETH, in and out of their soul. I
think you should be able to do that if
you have an edge in the market. But just
by splitting them up and running a dual
two portfolio system, I at least have
some sort of mental and visual
separation over my portfolio so I don't
get confused. Pro tip, you can also
break down some positions into each
portfolio. For example, you can have
some Bitcoin exposure in your short-term
portfolio and then you can have some
Bitcoin exposure in your long-term
portfolio. Like there are some ads
recently that have publicly made like
Bitcoin at around $111 to $112,000. that
position is more of a swing trading
position. So, I'm holding that to the
new break and the eventual all-time
high. I'm not holding that forever.
Whereas, I have another Bitcoin position
which I bought for, I think, 52,000 and
then again at 78,000. And my plan is to
hold that pretty much forever. So, I
also differentiate even between one
asset. And you could do the same for
Salana. You could have a little bit of
soul that you keep forever or, you know,
intend to keep for longer and then have
a little bit of soul that you're willing
to trade in and out of based purely on
the charts. So, how do we actually take
profit? Now, we've discussed how I'm
setting up my portfolio. How do you
actually sell? So, the first point I
want to make is in the short-term
portion of my portfolio, I'm selling all
the time. You know, every time there's a
bit of strength or, you know, a crazy
pump, I'm looking to cycle profits back
into stable coins because there's always
another opportunity around the corner. I
don't really have FOMO in the crypto
market anymore because I know on a daily
basis, on a weekly basis, because I'm so
plugged into the market, that there's
always going to be a new opportunity.
So, I'm often happy to actually sit
heavier in stable coins and just wait
for an opportunity because that
liquidity is extremely valuable when an
opportunity comes. Now, you might make
the argument, oh, what if the market
just rips to the upside and your side
line heavier in stable coins? Of course,
that is a risk you take if you play that
game. However, if the market does pump
and if the market does break out, that
means conditions are bullish. That means
there are even more opportunities to
profit. So if you're missing a lot of
opportunities, that means that there are
a lot of opportunities flowing around
you, which means there are more
opportunities that you can catch. So
having that mindset allows me to be a
little bit more comfortable when maybe
I'm not fully exposed, but the market's
ripping. I have more liquidity to take
advantage. And then you'll see, you
know, a big leverage flush. Now that I
actually have money during the dip,
everyone else is panicking. I can go in
and I can bid on that flush and get a
pretty quick reversal trade, which is a
very profitable strategy in a bull
market. But if you're fully invested,
you can't take advantage of those
opportunities cuz you, you know, if you
don't have any liquidity, how can you
have limit orders set? So, honestly, at
this stage in the cycle, I'm sitting
around 50% stable coins. I'm going to
explain later in the video exactly why
I'm doing that because I think people
that are too overexposed right now, like
above 80% in terms of their crypto
holdings versus stables, I think you're
missing a very key factor about the
cycle, which I'm going to get into. So,
in terms of taking profit, I'm always
looking to incrementally lad out as an
asset goes up. Now, what you can do is
for a specific altcoin, actually have a
lading system. And this often happens
when you buy the asset. If you haven't
done it, that's fine. You can do it
retroactively now, but it's best to do
when you buy an asset. So, let's say you
buy an asset at a dollar, you would have
predetermined levels where you take
percentage profits out. So, if that
altcoin hits 120, I take 20%. If it hits
150, I take another 20%. If it hits $2,
I take another 20%. And this can be
based on resistance on the chart or it
can simply be based on a predetermined
percentage level based on the riskiness
of the altcoin. Obviously, a risky low
cap meme coin, you're not going to be
taking money out every 10 or 20%. You
might take your initials out at a 2x and
then at another 2x cuz it's low market
cap, it should go up more. You can be
more aggressive with your profit taking.
Take 50% of your position every time it
doubles. Whereas an asset like Salana,
clearly it's not going to double as
readily. It might double once for the
cycle, but it probably won't double
beyond that. If it does, it means we're
in a crazy old teaser. It means we're
making a lot of money, but it probably
won't double. That's the first thing.
So, as an asset goes up, ladder out. The
second thing you want to do is you want
to have an invalidation clause to the
downside. And this is very powerful
because this is essentially how you're
going to protect yourself against bag
holding throughout a bare market. So,
just as you have a ladder out planned to
the upside, you should also have one to
the downside. What I do is I have a
predetermined high time frame level
that's significant on the chart combined
with a momentum indicator. So, it could
be the 200 day moving average, which is
a great one, or as a higher time frame
confirmation, a weekly moving average,
and I will have a clause where I sell a
percentage, so let's say 50% of my
Salana if it drops below the 200 day
moving average for 3 days in a row,
something like that. That's protection
against the momentum of an asset souring
cuz I don't want to be on the wrong side
of an asset when it starts to downturn.
So, I think the proper exit strategy in
the market for altcoins isn't a blanket
approach like when it hits this amount,
sell everything. It's a combined
approach. It's okay. As it's going up,
you lad out slowly. You go into stables.
Pro tip, actually go into fiat because
it's harder to on ramp than off ramp.
Again, if you keep your stables in a
brokerage, you're going to end up
gambling it again. Keep a little bit for
limit orders and stink bits, but don't
gamble it again. And then the second
thing you want to do is have the
invalidation clauses to the downside.
It's even better if you've predetermined
these when you enter the trade, but even
if you haven't, you can retroactively
define key levels, high time frame
horizontals as well as momentum
indicators. And you can have a trigger
with both, by the way. Pick the one that
you like as long as you have something
in place. Something's better than
nothing, by the way, because most
retail, they don't even have any
awareness of this, right? They're buying
assets on their buy bit. They don't have
any sort of invalidation. They don't
have any sort of TP plan. So, they're
just going in blind. The very fact
you're watching this video, and even
better, if you actually act on this
video, you're already ahead of 99% of
people because 99% of people don't
manage risk absolutely at all. So, the
fact you're doing that is, I think, a
huge credit to you and you're going to
go a lot further than most people. Now,
final section, very important section,
how to approach the market right now.
So, I do believe we're mid to late stage
in the cycle. And that's purely based on
the fact that we've been running since
November 2022. We've pretty much been up
only. We've had dips, but we've been
going up for a long time on Bitcoin and
ETH. And, you know, doesn't matter what
you say, Bitcoin and ETH lead the
market, right? It's not the altcoins.
So, once they hit their cycle peak, once
they cool off, altcoins are obviously
going to get hit because they're more
reflexive. Good news is I still think
that there's more upside on Bitcoin and
Ethereum, but I do think it's late stage
in the sense that on Bitcoin you're
probably looking for that move from 120
to 140 150. And on Ethereum you might be
looking at 6 to 7K, but percentage- wise
that's much smaller than the run that's
already happened. Bitcoin from 15 to 120
and then Ethereum from $1,000 to local
peak 4700 4,800 almost. So they've
already done the majority of their
multiples by the way. So that's why
objectively we're mid to late stage
unless there was some sort of crazy
super cycle. Look, I'm all for it if
that happens. We make a lot more money
if that happens because we'll have
liquidity to trade it. But and you know
take advantage of opportunities that
arise because of it. But that's not my
base case. So my base case is that we're
mid to late stage vering on late stage.
And because of that I think it's very
important to reframe how you think about
risk. Now most people have it completely
wrong because the majority of gains are
made in the last stage of the cycle.
They take that as an excuse to risk more
of their capital. But what you have to
understand is that at the end of a
cycle, that's also the riskiest time to
trade and invest because volatility is
at its highest. And unless you're really
able to cope with that volatility and
you're a really seasoned trader, that's
the easiest time to get completely blown
out of the market because it's the
easiest time to get bad entries and it's
the easiest time, especially on
leverage, to get wrecked and wiped out
of the market. So, what you actually
should be doing is the opposite of what
your intuition says. If you think we're
late stage in the cycle and we're
heading to that blowoff stage, you
shouldn't have more capital risk. You
should actually risk less capital. But
to capitalize on the late stage of the
market, you should move up the risk
curve and get into riskier assets. So in
the beginning of a bull market, just
coming out of a bare market, you want to
be allocating more capital to safer
assets. For example, more of your
portfolio to Bitcoin or Ethereum. As you
move later in the cycle, you should be
allocating less of your capital
percentage-wise to riskier assets in the
market. So, you'll probably see me, if
you're following me on the channel, over
these next few months, degening a lot
more, getting into a lot more rubbish
trades, making a lot more risky moves.
But the huge caveat to that is I'm doing
it with less of my portfolio. As I
mentioned earlier, I have 50% of my
portfolio in stables. I I was publicly
at 20 to 30% 1 to 1 and a half years
ago. So that's been already a big shift
for me and I'll probably go even further
to 60 70 80% as we continue to progress
here and as Bitcoin and Ethereum goes
up. But what I'm doing with the
remainder of my portfolio is a lot
riskier. Implementing tactics on lower
cap altcoins, beta plays, etc. that I
simply didn't have to do earlier in the
cycle and probably wasn't optimal
earlier in the cycle from an allocation
perspective. So understanding that you
should be dialing down the risk at the
end of the cycle but upping the risk in
terms of assets you're allocating to I
think is the real key to succeeding in
the late stage of the cycle and this is
something that all the in all the best
investors do in the market and that
naturally as a byproduct of that
strategy forces you to hold more stables
which as I said exposes you to more
opportunity in the market when
opportunities do arise because you know
it's funny people think you don't need
liquidity in a bullish market but
bullish markets are actually when you
need the most liquidity because that's
where there's the most opportunity like
chain link last week a bit more than
last week actually almost two weeks ago
I took a big position on the breakout of
$19 right that was a key weekly level
which had finally reclaimed took a
position at $19 I didn't know that that
was going to break out one week earlier
I didn't factor that into my equations
at all I obviously had stable coins so I
knew when an opportunity did come up I
would use that to deploy but I didn't
know what that was one week later the
chain link trade got validated and I put
a significant amount of capital into it
and then it ran to I think it at its
local peak $26 which you know was a
great swing trade on a big spot
position. I also took a leverage
position as as well in tandem with it
under different variables. So that was
an amazing trade I didn't even know I
was going to hit that trade and next
week there could be another amazing
trade that I don't even know it's going
to come around. I don't know tomorrow
someone could text me an amazing low cap
that I didn't even know I was going to
do today. So I guess the thing with
crypto is that there's always another
opportunity and if you don't have
liquidity and a big amazing trade setup
aligns, how are you supposed to take
advantage of it? Well, the only way
would be to sell other coins potentially
at a suboptimal time to fund your new
trade. So, I'm not afraid at all to hold
more stables, and that's where this
whole dialing down the amount you're
deploying, but dialing up um the risk
curve uh strategy actually comes into
play. Remember, if you do want live
updates, so every single day with what
I'm doing and a basic overview of the
market to help you cut through the
noise, I'll leave a link in the
description below to my free Telegram.
Especially if you're watching this video
later or whenever you're watching it
really, that's going to be extremely
relevant because things may have changed
from recording this video. And I may
very well be implementing the plan and
the points that I've discussed today in
real time, whether it be deploying more
capital or whether it be actually
continuing to shift more into stables
progressively throughout the cycle. So,
if you want live updates on what I'm
doing, when I'm doing it, link in the
description below. Join the vault, which
is my private Telegram. It's free. And
I'll see you in the next one. Make sure
to subscribe for more content like this
if you do enjoy these style of videos.
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