0:02 Now, in some Ontario suburbs, home
0:06 values have dropped by more than 22%
0:09 in just 2 years. That's hundreds of
0:11 thousands of dollars completely wiped
0:13 out. And the worst part, it's not even
0:16 over. While headlines focus on Toronto,
0:18 the real financial damage is unfolding
0:21 in the surrounding suburbs. And today,
0:23 I'm showing you exactly where it's
0:26 hitting the hardest and why you need to
0:32 Now, let's get real. The Canadian
0:34 housing market is going through a
0:36 painful, painful, but necessary
0:39 correction after years of speculative
0:41 frenzy and record low interest rates,
0:43 high borrowing costs, and economic
0:45 uncertainty are finally dragging the
0:47 market back to earth. But national
0:49 figures, they offer a false sense of
0:51 security because they average everything
0:53 out. They bury the differences between
0:56 markets that are still stable and those
0:58 in full freefall. Here's the kicker.
1:00 It's the suburbs that saw the most
1:04 extreme FOMO fueled growth zones that
1:07 are actually collapsing the hardest.
1:09 Places where prices became completely
1:11 untethered, not grounded in local
1:14 incomes, job markets, or realistic
1:17 valuations. And now the bill is coming
1:19 due. The whole frenzy was built on
1:21 misplaced assumptions that ultra- low
1:23 interest rates were permanent. That
1:25 remote work forever changed commuting
1:28 and housing priorities. That speculation
1:30 was safe. That if you just bought
1:32 somewhere, you couldn't lose. But the
1:35 bubble was always going to pop. And it
1:37 finally has. To illustrate just how
1:39 different things are, consider
1:42 yearover-year GTA sales in June 2025
1:45 were down a modest 2.4%.
1:48 But new listings are up 7.7%
1:51 and active listings have jumped by over
1:55 30%. That's a massive overupp of homes
1:58 and rapidly shrinking pool of buyers.
2:01 That environment, it crushes prices,
2:04 especially in overbuilt, overleveraged
2:08 suburban zones.
2:11 Let's kick things off with Hamilton. For
2:13 years, investors and buyers fleeing
2:16 Toronto's crazy prices piled in. The
2:19 city was marketed as the epicenter of
2:21 urban revival. Arts districts,
2:24 revitalization, affordable values. It
2:27 felt bulletproof. But now the facade has
2:30 cracked. The data benchmark prices in
2:32 Hamilton, Burlington have dropped more
2:36 than 22% from the early 2022 peak.
2:39 That's not a small dip. It's nearly a
2:42 quarter of the value completely wiped
2:44 out in just a few years. For a home that
2:47 once hit $1 million at its peak, that's
2:49 a $220,000
2:52 loss on paper. And we haven't even
2:55 factored in carrying costs, repairs, or
2:59 financing. Condo prices down around $18%
3:03 from the peak of 2022. Sales activity in
3:07 mid 2025 is the slowest pace since 2010.
3:10 As for days on market, it's up 31% or
3:14 more. Homes are sitting around stagnant,
3:16 attracting fewer offers. Now, the
3:18 question is why? Why is Hamilton sinking
3:23 harder than other local economies?
3:25 Hamilton's economy leans heavily on
3:27 manufacturing and industry, which
3:29 quickly suffers under national slowdown.
3:32 When big ticket spending collapses, jobs
3:34 falter, and people tighten on their
3:38 housing budgets.
3:40 Most of Hamilton's surge was installed
3:43 by buyers cashing out of Toronto. They
3:45 were moving because of proximity, lower
3:47 prices, but that stopped being
3:50 compelling. Commuting remains expensive.
3:52 Hybrid and in-off policies are
3:55 returning. So, the premium for Hamilton
3:57 is just not there anymore. [Music]
3:59 [Music]
4:01 Those flipping and bidding crazy numbers
4:05 in 2021, early 2022, they're long gone.
4:08 They sold high and left town. What's
4:11 left is a market flooded with listings
4:13 and not enough cash buyers to absorb
4:15 them. Now, if you're a short-term
4:18 investor or flipper, don't touch it. The
4:20 risk is huge. It's a static,
4:23 oversupplied market with rising carrying
4:25 costs. If you're a long-term buyer with
4:27 solid income, it could be an
4:30 opportunity, but you have to essentially
4:32 expect to hold forever. Be mentally
4:34 prepared for deeper drops. know you're
4:37 not getting out anytime soon if rates
4:40 stay high or economic stagnation continues.
4:43 continues.
4:46 Next stop is Kitchener Waterlue. Once
4:49 hailed as Canada's tech heartland, the
4:51 Silicon Valley of the North, its entire
4:54 rise was tied to tech and remote work
4:56 dynamics. But when that sector stumbles,
4:58 everything built on it falters. As for
5:01 the data in June 2025, benchmark prices
5:05 fell about 7.5% year-over-year, landing
5:12 Yet, from the early 2022, speculative
5:15 peak, the total decline is still over
5:18 20%. Sales volumes are trailing well
5:20 behind the 10-year average. Listings
5:23 have swelled disproportionately, making
5:26 it a buyer market right now. And again,
5:28 the question everyone's asking, what
5:31 went wrong?
5:35 Widespread layoffs, hiring freezes, and
5:37 slashed stock compensation have
5:40 completely decimated the highincome
5:42 buyer cohort. Kitchener Wateroo isn't
5:44 immune. It's tied tightly to that
5:46 economic engine. [Music]
5:48 [Music]
5:50 The initial remote work movement
5:53 convinced many to leave Toronto for
5:55 Kitchener Waterlue. But as companies
5:58 pull back or demand more office time,
6:01 the incentive to tolerate long commutes
6:07 The selling point was completely
6:10 speculative. You'll make a killing just
6:11 by buying now. And that's what everybody
6:14 was saying. Once valuations detached
6:16 from income potentials and rental
6:19 potential, the harmony collapsed and so
6:21 did the prices. At this point, buying in
6:24 Kitchener Wateroo, it's not a real
6:26 estate investment. It's a bet on the
6:29 global tech market recovering massively
6:31 and quickly. And that isn't happening.
6:33 So, with limited domestic demand and
6:36 sluggish sales, most buyers should
6:38 completely stay away from that market
6:40 until there's clear evidence of mass
6:43 hiring, wage growth, and even renewed
6:45 local fundamentals because those were
6:48 gone out the window at its peak. I've
6:50 laid out the problem. Now what? If
6:53 you're a buyer, you're holding all the
6:56 cards, but you still need to play smart.
6:59 Go get a mortgage preapproval. Again,
7:01 like right now, based on today's rate,
7:03 any older pre-approvals are essentially
7:06 meaningless. Negotiate aggressively.
7:08 Dwell on how long the property's been
7:11 listed. 30 to 90 days of stale listings,
7:13 that's your cue to lowball. Sellers are
7:15 desperate at that point. Never ever any
7:18 under conditions, wave conditions. The
7:20 pandemic mindset was costly. A financing
7:23 condition protects if appraisals come in
7:25 low. A home inspection saves you from a
7:28 money pit. So, you want to keep those in
7:29 there no matter what. Prioritize
7:32 leverage. Home sitting longer, listing
7:35 price cuts, second and third offers
7:37 falling off. That's your moment. And if
7:40 you're a seller, brace yourself. Flat or
7:41 down markets require a different
7:45 playbook. Set realistic current prices.
7:47 Don't hang on to your listing for what
7:50 your neighbor got in 2022. It's gone.
7:53 Price based on what's actually selling
7:56 today. Avoid listing too high. A high
7:58 entry price just leads to incremental
8:02 price cuts which signal weakness. Price
8:04 aggressively from day one and be ready
8:06 to negotiate. Just know that your
8:09 margins are squeezed. Sellers today may
8:12 have minimal profit or none at all.
8:15 Understand that demand may only surface
8:18 if you're priced below comparables. Now,
8:20 this market is changing every week and
8:22 your success or failure hinges on
8:25 up-to-date data and raw, honest
8:27 analysis. That's exactly what we deliver
8:29 here. So, if you're looking for
8:31 nononsense updates on the greater
8:34 Toronto area and Ontario housing market,
8:36 hit subscribe, ring that notification
8:40 bell. I post monthly, sometimes more
8:41 breakdowns that cut through all the
8:43 fluff. Now, I want to hear from you.
8:46 Have you seen these drops in your area?
8:48 Are you a buyer navigating this mess or
8:50 a seller getting squeezed out by rising
8:52 supply? Drop your suburb, your
8:54 experience. Let's get real. Let's get
8:56 tactical and let's help each other get
8:59 through this.
9:00 So, here's the bottom line. The suburban
9:03 dream marketed from 2020 to 2022 has
9:06 turned into a verifiable nightmare in
9:08 these places. Hamilton, Kitchener,
9:11 Wateroo, the markets that soared the
9:14 highest during the debtfueled rally are
9:17 now crashing the fastest. the inflow of
9:20 outside capital, speculative adrenaline,
9:23 and crazy bidding wars, they're gone,
9:26 leaving behind tons of properties,
9:29 buyers in retreat, and homes losing
9:32 value really fast. And we're not even at
9:34 the bottom yet. With high interest rates
9:36 still tightening, affordability and
9:39 inventory continuing to build, the
9:41 pressure on prices in these vulnerable
9:44 suburbs is very much ongoing. This video
9:46 isn't about fear. It's about clarity.
9:48 It's about cutting through the hype,
9:51 exposing the raw numbers, and giving you
9:54 the tools to make smart choices. Whether
9:57 you're buying, whether you're selling,
9:59 whether you're investing, or just
10:02 holding on. So stay sharp, stay
10:04 informed, and don't get caught in the
10:06 wrong side of this correction. Again, my
10:08 name is Matt Moy, and I will see you in
10:11 the next one. Peace.
10:13 I hope you got some value out of that
10:15 video. If you did, then go ahead and
10:18 check out this video here or here. I'm
10:19 not quite sure where it's going to be on
10:22 the screen, but one of these videos. Go
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