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Avoid These Toronto Suburbs at ALL Costs in 2025
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Now, in some Ontario suburbs, home
values have dropped by more than 22%
in just 2 years. That's hundreds of
thousands of dollars completely wiped
out. And the worst part, it's not even
over. While headlines focus on Toronto,
the real financial damage is unfolding
in the surrounding suburbs. And today,
I'm showing you exactly where it's
hitting the hardest and why you need to
Now, let's get real. The Canadian
housing market is going through a
painful, painful, but necessary
correction after years of speculative
frenzy and record low interest rates,
high borrowing costs, and economic
uncertainty are finally dragging the
market back to earth. But national
figures, they offer a false sense of
security because they average everything
out. They bury the differences between
markets that are still stable and those
in full freefall. Here's the kicker.
It's the suburbs that saw the most
extreme FOMO fueled growth zones that
are actually collapsing the hardest.
Places where prices became completely
untethered, not grounded in local
incomes, job markets, or realistic
valuations. And now the bill is coming
due. The whole frenzy was built on
misplaced assumptions that ultra- low
interest rates were permanent. That
remote work forever changed commuting
and housing priorities. That speculation
was safe. That if you just bought
somewhere, you couldn't lose. But the
bubble was always going to pop. And it
finally has. To illustrate just how
different things are, consider
yearover-year GTA sales in June 2025
were down a modest 2.4%.
But new listings are up 7.7%
and active listings have jumped by over
30%. That's a massive overupp of homes
and rapidly shrinking pool of buyers.
That environment, it crushes prices,
especially in overbuilt, overleveraged
suburban zones.
Let's kick things off with Hamilton. For
years, investors and buyers fleeing
Toronto's crazy prices piled in. The
city was marketed as the epicenter of
urban revival. Arts districts,
revitalization, affordable values. It
felt bulletproof. But now the facade has
cracked. The data benchmark prices in
Hamilton, Burlington have dropped more
than 22% from the early 2022 peak.
That's not a small dip. It's nearly a
quarter of the value completely wiped
out in just a few years. For a home that
once hit $1 million at its peak, that's
a $220,000
loss on paper. And we haven't even
factored in carrying costs, repairs, or
financing. Condo prices down around $18%
from the peak of 2022. Sales activity in
mid 2025 is the slowest pace since 2010.
As for days on market, it's up 31% or
more. Homes are sitting around stagnant,
attracting fewer offers. Now, the
question is why? Why is Hamilton sinking
harder than other local economies?
Hamilton's economy leans heavily on
manufacturing and industry, which
quickly suffers under national slowdown.
When big ticket spending collapses, jobs
falter, and people tighten on their
housing budgets.
Most of Hamilton's surge was installed
by buyers cashing out of Toronto. They
were moving because of proximity, lower
prices, but that stopped being
compelling. Commuting remains expensive.
Hybrid and in-off policies are
returning. So, the premium for Hamilton
is just not there anymore. [Music]
[Music]
Those flipping and bidding crazy numbers
in 2021, early 2022, they're long gone.
They sold high and left town. What's
left is a market flooded with listings
and not enough cash buyers to absorb
them. Now, if you're a short-term
investor or flipper, don't touch it. The
risk is huge. It's a static,
oversupplied market with rising carrying
costs. If you're a long-term buyer with
solid income, it could be an
opportunity, but you have to essentially
expect to hold forever. Be mentally
prepared for deeper drops. know you're
not getting out anytime soon if rates
stay high or economic stagnation continues.
continues.
Next stop is Kitchener Waterlue. Once
hailed as Canada's tech heartland, the
Silicon Valley of the North, its entire
rise was tied to tech and remote work
dynamics. But when that sector stumbles,
everything built on it falters. As for
the data in June 2025, benchmark prices
fell about 7.5% year-over-year, landing
Yet, from the early 2022, speculative
peak, the total decline is still over
20%. Sales volumes are trailing well
behind the 10-year average. Listings
have swelled disproportionately, making
it a buyer market right now. And again,
the question everyone's asking, what
went wrong?
Widespread layoffs, hiring freezes, and
slashed stock compensation have
completely decimated the highincome
buyer cohort. Kitchener Wateroo isn't
immune. It's tied tightly to that
economic engine. [Music]
[Music]
The initial remote work movement
convinced many to leave Toronto for
Kitchener Waterlue. But as companies
pull back or demand more office time,
the incentive to tolerate long commutes
The selling point was completely
speculative. You'll make a killing just
by buying now. And that's what everybody
was saying. Once valuations detached
from income potentials and rental
potential, the harmony collapsed and so
did the prices. At this point, buying in
Kitchener Wateroo, it's not a real
estate investment. It's a bet on the
global tech market recovering massively
and quickly. And that isn't happening.
So, with limited domestic demand and
sluggish sales, most buyers should
completely stay away from that market
until there's clear evidence of mass
hiring, wage growth, and even renewed
local fundamentals because those were
gone out the window at its peak. I've
laid out the problem. Now what? If
you're a buyer, you're holding all the
cards, but you still need to play smart.
Go get a mortgage preapproval. Again,
like right now, based on today's rate,
any older pre-approvals are essentially
meaningless. Negotiate aggressively.
Dwell on how long the property's been
listed. 30 to 90 days of stale listings,
that's your cue to lowball. Sellers are
desperate at that point. Never ever any
under conditions, wave conditions. The
pandemic mindset was costly. A financing
condition protects if appraisals come in
low. A home inspection saves you from a
money pit. So, you want to keep those in
there no matter what. Prioritize
leverage. Home sitting longer, listing
price cuts, second and third offers
falling off. That's your moment. And if
you're a seller, brace yourself. Flat or
down markets require a different
playbook. Set realistic current prices.
Don't hang on to your listing for what
your neighbor got in 2022. It's gone.
Price based on what's actually selling
today. Avoid listing too high. A high
entry price just leads to incremental
price cuts which signal weakness. Price
aggressively from day one and be ready
to negotiate. Just know that your
margins are squeezed. Sellers today may
have minimal profit or none at all.
Understand that demand may only surface
if you're priced below comparables. Now,
this market is changing every week and
your success or failure hinges on
up-to-date data and raw, honest
analysis. That's exactly what we deliver
here. So, if you're looking for
nononsense updates on the greater
Toronto area and Ontario housing market,
hit subscribe, ring that notification
bell. I post monthly, sometimes more
breakdowns that cut through all the
fluff. Now, I want to hear from you.
Have you seen these drops in your area?
Are you a buyer navigating this mess or
a seller getting squeezed out by rising
supply? Drop your suburb, your
experience. Let's get real. Let's get
tactical and let's help each other get
through this.
So, here's the bottom line. The suburban
dream marketed from 2020 to 2022 has
turned into a verifiable nightmare in
these places. Hamilton, Kitchener,
Wateroo, the markets that soared the
highest during the debtfueled rally are
now crashing the fastest. the inflow of
outside capital, speculative adrenaline,
and crazy bidding wars, they're gone,
leaving behind tons of properties,
buyers in retreat, and homes losing
value really fast. And we're not even at
the bottom yet. With high interest rates
still tightening, affordability and
inventory continuing to build, the
pressure on prices in these vulnerable
suburbs is very much ongoing. This video
isn't about fear. It's about clarity.
It's about cutting through the hype,
exposing the raw numbers, and giving you
the tools to make smart choices. Whether
you're buying, whether you're selling,
whether you're investing, or just
holding on. So stay sharp, stay
informed, and don't get caught in the
wrong side of this correction. Again, my
name is Matt Moy, and I will see you in
the next one. Peace.
I hope you got some value out of that
video. If you did, then go ahead and
check out this video here or here. I'm
not quite sure where it's going to be on
the screen, but one of these videos. Go
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