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Perp Trading Class - Oct 11, 2025

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The content discusses the extreme volatility and unprecedented liquidation event in cryptocurrency markets, emphasizing risk management, exchange reliability, and advanced trading strategies using technical indicators for perpetual futures trading.

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So I I am going to start this class a

little bit differently than other

classes um because of everything we saw

yesterday and those record liquidations

which at the market close were estimated

at 9 billion that is up to 19.19

billion now the last I saw. So, a truly

unprecedented liquidation event in

crypto uh bigger than the Luna collapse,

bigger than FTX, bigger than uh anything

that happened during CO uh numbers wise.

And we had just seen the largest

liquidation event in history on

September 29th, so a little over a week

ago, which was at $1.9 billion. And we

pretty much 10xed that with what

happened yesterday. And obviously this

goes back to the importance of setting

stop- losses, but not even that would

have protected you in certain scenarios.

I uh talked to a few traders who had

their stop losses completely skipped

over and then exchanges were freezing.

Uh I know one gentleman who got into a

short on Salana at around $200 and then

uh he was on bitunex couldn't do

anything on that exchange to close it

out and then the price action shot back

up to $210 and liquidated his position.

So at times like this even if you are

trying to mitigate risk um you can get

caught out on that. And I actually had a

liquidation event yesterday too on

BitunX. Once we broke below 200, I

started scaling into a long on Salana

and on Ethereum. And then the exchange

completely froze on me. And my trades

weren't even showing up. Uh and I could

see the charts, but the trades weren't

there. I couldn't close them. I couldn't

do anything. And after the price action

rebounded and the exchange came back

online, I got a notification that I had

been liquidated from those both those

positions. Uh which was not great. Um

because you know it was completely out

of your hands at this point. So, if you

did get into a bind yesterday and you

were doing the right things, uh, don't

beat yourself up because the market

makers were clearly having a field day.

And I think there's going to be more of

a reckoning to happen here in the crypto

space because of this. But it is a time

where I think it's worth exploring other

exchanges. And roughly 80% of exchanges

are linked to Binance in some fashion.

And if anybody here has experience on an

exchange that worked well yesterday, I

would love to hear that. But I know

Blofin was one of the two that's not

linked that didn't have any

interruptions. I haven't traded on it. I

think I need a VPN here in North

America. Uh Victor says Jupiter was

good. I did hear about some people

having trouble on Jupiter and I was

trying to swap some crypto um that was

freezing on me, but I'm glad to hear

that Jupiter worked for you. But if

anybody else has positive experiences,

please share those with the group.

Either, you know, speak up or mention

that in the chat. Um, but we have global

markets, you know, uh, that see much

more activity and don't have these and

are running on older rails and don't

have these issues. Um, so I I think this

just goes back to,

you know, keeping perp trading to a

smaller percentage of your bag. um and

keeping min minimal amounts on exchanges

and keeping other assets secure. So if

something like this does happen, then um

at least it doesn't wipe out your entire

portfolio. I would never advocate for

keeping your entire portfolio on one of

these per exchanges. And I try to sweep

funds every month. So, I start with

10,000 every month in Bitunix and then

as that grows at the end of the month,

I'll sweep that either into my cold

storage or onto an exchange or onto my

cast crypto debit card. So, anyway,

that's enough of uh the rant. Robert

says, "I was adding collateral on

Jupiter three times yesterday and it

worked. However, needed to repeat some

transactions a few times." Okay, so you

were able to get through despite the

congestion. So that's that's at least

good that you were able to do that to

save your position. All right. So I'm

just going to go over the basic

framework of what perp trading is and

then really we'll spend the meat of the

class today in the charts and looking at

both how to use IADSS and a bit of

technical analysis to really sharpen up

up our per trading skills. And the one

thing I'll say with perp trading or

really swing trading any kind of trading

is that mastering the indicators and the

technical tools that we cover um that is

the easy part even the TA uh to some

extent because with enough practice it

becomes second nature and you learn how

to read the charts but managing our

emotions uh is the most challenging part

and I I'll just say this now you don't

have to perpetrate Different

temperaments and personality types do

better with different styles of

investing. So, if there's one thing you

take away from today, the strategy we

cover, this can be applied to swing

trading. It can be applied to investing.

If you do it on the larger time frames,

um, and perp trading is only one of many

resources. You know, I know folks who

just sell covered calls to generate cash

flow or I have one friend who just

trades commodities, futures. Um, so find

the tools, find the style of trading

that works for your temperament, also

for your lifestyle. If you're perpet

trading on smaller time frames, it can

be all-consuming. And I'm generally

staring at the chart or I have my iPad

at my side with the chart as I'm doing

something else. Um, but it's not

something you have to do if it doesn't

uh check all the boxes for you. So, what

are we doing with a perp trade? And it

sounds like most of you know this

already, but it's a uh leveraged bet uh

a perpetual futures contract that allows

us to speculate on the future price of a

cryptocurrency without owning the

underlying asset. So we're picking the

leverage uh with our collateral that we

want to lever up on that asset saying is

the price going to go up or down. The purpose

purpose

you keep it open there is a funding rate

mechanism. Um, so over time, the longer

you keep a position open, the more that

will eat into

uh the fees. Now, it's not a a perfect

analogy, but per trading, I like doing

it on the smaller time frames because

for me, it mitigates a bit of risk,

particularly in the current market

environment we're in, where it is a

third-year bull run, which is typically

marked by more volatility. And we also

have an administration uh here in the US

that if you look back to 2018 brought in

more volatility and that has continued

to remain true uh this year and that's

um you know not even a political

statement. It's just the method of

leadership where you announce a big idea

on truth social or X or whatever the

platform is and you know throw the idea

against the wall and see how it sticks.

uh and markets like certainty and when

they get surprised by things like that,

that's when we see that volatility that

we saw yesterday or in April. Um and so

perpetrating on the shorter time frames

helps, you know, over a longer time

horizon mitigate that risk um by keeping

you in trades uh and or getting you in

and out of trades really quickly. And

even in a longer uptrend, there's lots

of chop with the price action moving up

and down. So I liken it to surfing a bit

where you know you go out there, you

have your equipment, uh you need the

right board for the conditions. So that

would be your leverage on the particular

asset you're trading and then you need

to position yourself and it's not about

catching every wave. It's about being in

the right position for one of the waves

and just taking a swing or a chunk out

of the middle of that. So, we're doing

this to, you know, grow our bags, to

generate cash flow. And really, I think

one of the best benefits that isn't

monetary of pro trading is that it

really hones your trading skills in

terms of training us to buy low and sell

high. We learn how to read charts and

identify patterns and it really helps us

uh get better at managing our emotions

because this is one of the highest um

you know stress forms of trading just in

terms of the speed at which things move

when you're deploying that leverage and

you have to be ready to make quick

decisions to uh save and manage your

trades. Now, in terms of where to perp

trade, um, you know, we discussed that a

little bit at the beginning, but Jupiter

is getting better. Um, I used to

perpetrate on Jupiter, uh, linked to my

Phantom wallet. And the one thing I

didn't like about it was that there

weren't more crypto pairs at the time.

It was just, uh, Salana, Ethereum, and

wrap Bitcoin. Now, I haven't explored

it, but um, I know some folks have been

trading altcoins now on Jupiter. I don't

know how many pairs they have, but the

fact that they're expanding that is

good. Their fees have traditionally been

a little higher than other exchanges,

but those are slowly coming down, too.

So, it seems like Jupiter is becoming

more competitive, although the fees are

still slightly higher. But the good

thing I'll say for it is that just the

design and user interface is very smooth

and uh simple to use. But when I'm

pulling from my Phantom wallet, I'm

normally pulling from my crypto holdings

there. And the challenging part comes

with taxes. I track my transactions with

a plugin called Coinly. Um, there are a

few of these. Um, you've just started

allowing 250x leverage, which is Yeah,

don't do 250X, please. I know some perp

exchanges allow 400x which it's like if

it's a $100 asset, you can lose 25% on

it before you're liquidated, which is or

25 cents on a $100 asset before your

position is liquidated. Um, which is

absolutely crazy. But, um, let me just

pull that up into the chat if anybody

Or is it coinly.io or XYZ? Give me one

There it is. coin.io.

All right. But the problem I had in

pulling from my Phantom wallet is I

didn't have a lot of stable coins in

there. So, I was pulling from crypto.

And if you're layering into a trade two

or three times and layering out of it,

then the value of that underlying crypto

asset is changing. and you have to do a

bunch of manual reconciliation where

other exchanges like uh Bitex that I'm

on or MEXC or Blofin or any of the

others uh they force you to trade

futures uh which they call it crypto

futures on those exchanges not per

trading in a stable coin so USDT or USDC

which makes um reconciling those

transactions nice and easy because it's

going in at a stable coin as a stable

coin coming out as a stable coin so

calculating your P&L and all that is a

lot smoother. Um, but I haven't tried

all the exchanges. For all intents and

purposes, the design that I've seen is

is very similar, but just look for the

best, you know, option in terms of uh

lots of crypto pairs and low fees and

you should be off to the races. Okay.

Now, uh, in terms of time commitment for

perp trading, it really depends on the

style you're pursuing. So, if you're

trading on the short time frames like I

am on the one, the three, the 5minute

chart, then uh you're really focused and

I usually do that for, you know, 3 to 4

hours in the morning when the US markets

open and a little bit more volatility

kicks in. But if you don't want to be

watching the charts that much, then you

can trade on the 15minute or the 1 hour

or even the 4 hour time frame really.

And on the 15-minute, you would be

getting in and out of a trade every,

let's say, 12 to 24 hours, depending on

how fast the market is moving. On the

4hour time frame, you know, it could be

a couple days that you're in a trade to

a couple weeks. Um, so find what works

for you and we'll talk about how you can

set some alerts as well um on the charts

to help get you ready to pay attention

when you need to for a trade. So, let's

talk about the risks. The major risks

are obviously liquidation events or the

trend turning against you or using too

high leverage. And those two are related

in a little in a sense. I see too many people

people

where they're in a losing trade and they

keep adding to their position where they

want to get their liquidation price

down. and sometimes you have to. But the

problem with that strategy is that

you're chasing a losing trade and you're

going against the current flow in

markets. So often the path of least

resistance when the trend turns against

you, assuming you don't have a stop, is

to open a short position at slightly

higher leverage. And it does two things

for you. First, it frees you up

mentally. So you're no longer stressed

about the price action going down.

you're actually happy about it because

that short is making a little bit more

money than your long and then it allows

you when the trend actually does turn to

close out that short and then you can

roll the proceeds into your long to get

the entry price down. Now, I realize

that if you're using very high leverage

um or the market moves in crazy swings

like we saw yesterday, you might be

forced to have to add to that long

position to get the liquidation price

down. So there is some nuance, but

generally speaking, I would say that's

the best strategy if you don't have a

stop in play. And

if you just keep adding, if you're, you

know, stubbornly, I guess, going against

what the market or the flow of money is

actually doing, the position gets larger

and larger, and then your losses stack.

And I would suggest that most people as

they start seeing those losses stack are

in are less able to make rational and

objective decisions. um as the leverage

and the losses uh increase. And so we

want to be careful of making a position

too large or using too high leverage.

And the big question is often what's the

ideal leverage to use? And the answer is

it depends on the asset. So Salana, I'm

generally trading with 10x leverage,

which was a lot yesterday, but for how

the asset normally moves, um is

something I'm comfortable with. James

advocates for no more than you know

three maybe 5x he says sometimes

leverage which obviously in instances

like yesterday was a good rule but not

all assets move by the same percentage.

Um Bitcoin for instance moves much uh

slower and less percentage- wise in a

given day. So I'll sometimes use 30 or

40x leverage if I'm trading Bitcoin.

Now, that also becomes more expensive

because I'm paying the exchange more to

lever up and borrow um that higher

leverage on that asset. And then with

some altcoins like um Aster a couple

weeks ago uh yesterday just cuz uh it

came to mind Fartcoin dropped from 67

cents I think down to 9. So just an

absolutely massive swing. Um it doesn't

normally do that. Um but on that one 3x

leverage would be like using 15 or 20x

leverage on Salana um or 50x leverage on

Bitcoin. So you have to really

understand the asset you're trading, how

much it moves percentage-wise, and then

use the appropriate amount of leverage.

And some of those smaller crypto names,

the advantage is it's cheaper to trade

because you're losing less leverage and

you're getting the returns just based on

how much the underlying asset moves. Uh,

and my general rule of thumb when

trading smaller crypto names is to look

for at least a billion dollars in market

cap because that seems to be the point

where it's small enough that it's off

the radar of some of the bigger players,

but it's large enough where if you have

something with a 40 or $50 million

market cap, some large player could come

in there and just push the price around

really easily. So that's something to

pay attention to and we can look at that

in trading view uh where you can

identify that or you can just go on coinarketcap.com

coinarketcap.com

as well or dex screener uh what's the

URL for that one? Yeah, just dex ce

ne.com. Uh that has a lot of great info

as well. Now, the last thing I'll say

here, and this is something you have to

be careful with, but sometimes the path

of least resistance in perp trading is

picking newer crypto that are in blue

sky breakouts. So, if it's an asset

that's only a few days old that has

positive price structure, meaning that

the chart is just building that stairst

step of higher highs and higher lows,

those are often the smoothest to trade

because they don't have any overhead

supply. Even Ethereum last year, uh, or

last year, sorry, over the summer as it

was running up to all-time highs, there

were people holding positions from 2021

that were just getting to even, that

were selling into that. So that's what I

mean by overhead supply. You just have

that sell pressure that you don't have

with these new tokens. Uh you just have

to be careful and realize that it won't

last forever and most of them only run

for a couple of weeks before then kind

of stalling out. Not many of them make

it. But if you are able to identify

those and on coin market cap or deck

screener you can filter by coin age uh

and by the performance uh over the last

you know uh I guess few days that it's

been alive uh and then you can just look

at some charts to try to identify those

and it's the only time I generally say

and this this is different than what

we're going to look at generally with

how to use IADSS in normal price action

but that would be the only instance

where I say it's okay to buy high and

sell higher. Uh because cryptos when

they launch tend to go into a bit of

price discovery and then some of them

make it but 98% of them end up failing

and turning into one of those zombie

charts that James always talks about.

All right. Um

so in terms of the ideal indicators

today we're going to focus on IADSS.

Some people do this with ATR. I really

find that having IADSS with mean

reversion and the confluence model

clouds is the way I can get the most

edge. Um, so I would recommend that if

you're not using IADSS to look into

that. We already talked about what to do

if a trade turns against you. Uh, and

in terms of take profits and stop

losses, we'll look at key levels once we

get into the charts. I think that will

um really help sharpen that up as

opposed to just discussing the theory

right now. So, let me launch my chart

Okay. And

sorry, this is just from

uh I had a IIA community chart chat this

morning and we were comparing some uh

fib extensions to uh what the Lilo model

does. All right, so let me just erase

some of these trend lines. And normally

I like to talk about the price action

first, but let's just go through setting

up the indicators. And I'll go through

this a little bit quickly. And I'll put

a video in the chat um of a video I have

on YouTube of how I set everything up.

So that way you don't need to take notes

on how these indicators are dialed in

and you can just set it up uh for

yourself after this call. All right. Uh,

All right. And let me get that video

Right. And chat. So, if you look in the

chat, there should be that link for the

IADSS chart setup. All right. And we'll

bring up the participants. Good.

Good.

All right. So, starting here on the just

a blank Salana chart. And I would I

normally do these classes based off of

Salana, but let me know uh in the chat

if you have any particular assets that

you would rather look at for perp

trading. But in terms of setting things

up on the indicators, if we go to let's

start with the standard indicators. So,

I always bring up the RSI, which is the

relative strength index, and that really

helps me fine-tune um what mean

reversion signals to pay attention to. I

think uh Thomas was mentioning that.

Then I'll bring up the volume

and that's these volume candles at the

bottom there and VRVP, the visible range

volume profile, which is the historical

trading volume here on the right of your

chart. I have some custom settings on

that already, but I'll go into that in a

minute. Uh, and then I also usually have

the 200 day moving average on all my

charts, which is already on here for

Salana. Most of the time when you're

perp trading, uh, you don't really need

to pay attention to it, but as we're

coming down into that from the overs, we

are at a point where we should be paying

attention to the 200 EMA, uh, and should

be expecting it to play support since

we're approaching it from the overs. And

if it doesn't play support, that would

be uh cause for concern, at least in the

near term. All right, so those are the

main standard indicators I have on my

chart. And honestly, just based off of

trend lines and patterns and technical

analysis, you could accomplish a lot in

trading with just these, but um the IIA

indicators give us a little bit more of

an edge. So let's go into those and I

will bring up the confluence model.

Three instances of that and I'll go into

why three and how to dial those in. Mean

reversion which will be here at the

bottom of our chart. And then I was

using the trend model. Um but I've been

going back to the optimized trend

because I'm seeing that it's actually

pretty nice in terms of how some of the

features are dialed in. and I just

clicked on profit taking instead of

optimized trend. So, let's get that off

of there. Um, and we'll go through

dialing each of these in individually.

So, let me just turn off the trend model

and optimize trend and we can talk about

the benefits and liabilities of each.

But starting at the bottom of the chart

with mean reversion. And I usually put

this above RSI because it's slightly

more important to me. I keep my settings

on this just to the out of the box

neutral noise suppression 30 settings

and I find switching between all the

time frames that tends to work the best

for me. The only time I change this from

neutral is actually right now on the

weekend or if you're getting into a big

market event like FOMC that perhaps has

a bit of uh uncertainty around it.

you'll find that the trading becomes

very muted. And as an example, if we

look here on the 5-minute chart, you can

see that we're just not getting very

many mean reversion signals um that

align with the RSI. So in instances like

this on the weekend, you can change this

and let me move this over to aggressive

or even very aggressive to force some

more signals. And you can see how then

that gives you these entry and exit

signals on the very uh small time

frames. I'm just going to change that

back right now to neutral since we're

starting on the larger time frames and

then we can discuss that as we get back

into things. All right, so mean

reversion default settings. RSI, I also

just stick with the standard uh 14. The

only thing I change on RSI is I turn off

this moving average because it clutters

the chart and I don't really use moving

averages on the RSI, just use trend

lines. So, that's all set there. And

then I'll make the top full screen. For

the visible range volume profile, the

there are a few things that I dial in on

this. And I have it saved as my default.

So, uh, out of the box, you'll notice

that this is at 30.

And let's just go to and see how that

really cuts into the chart at 30. I

changed the width to 15 to keep it off

of the chart.

And that was 150. Let's try again. 15.

All right. There we go. All dialed in.

And I also on the style uh by default

the opacity here is not on I'm sorry,

not on these. Let's go back to I think

that was a 25. Uh on the volume up and

volume down area in the main cluster,

the opacity is not turned down. Uh so I

like to turn the opacity down. So, if

the price action goes underneath the

VRVP, I can still read what's going on

on the candles. Um, but you can change

that to whatever you like. And then I

also dial in the point of control right

here. This is the most traded zone by

default. This is red and it's this line

at 100%. So, I'll just make it a bit

softer color. I'll go with the orange.

And I like to see where the point of

control is, but I'll just keep that

opacity low, so it's more of a

background feature than something that's

taking up all the attention. Uh, and

then on the inputs, I also change the

row size. So, by default, I think this

comes out of the box at about 30 as

well, or maybe it's 50. And it just

gives you these big chunky boxes for the

buys and sells that don't give you as

much nuance. So, you sometimes have to

change this depending on the asset, but

I found that 150 is a good level for me

where you just get a little bit more

detail in the visible range volume

profile. And if you're not familiar with

the visible range volume profile, it's

giving you buy and sell volume in

particular trading um zones. So if we

bring in all the price action say from

January to now uh this will give you the

historical trading volume for everything

we see on the chart. Hence the visible

range volume profile. If we have less of

the trading range visible

that adapts to only what we're currently

seeing. And so if we're really trying to

assess and draw support and resistance,

I want to bring in at least from that

all-time high for this drop. So I see

all the selling volume and our rally up.

And then you can use this to identify

zones where we might find support or

turnaround in the trend. And you can see

I have some faint horizontal blue lines

drawn already. But you can use this.

Okay, here's our most traded zone, our

point of control. We have another little

spike right here that we bounced off of

in the VRVP. And we have a big spike

right here. here. And you can see all

that congestion around that price point.

So, you can use this to identify those

potential zones of resistance. Actually,

we found a little bit there at 236 based

off of that volume cluster. And let's

give ourselves one down below, too.

Right. Uh, we have a bit of an air

pocket. And then support comes in in

this range here where I drew that. I

think I drew a white line there already

at the point of control. Let's draw one

at the top of this range, too, which

aligns with a lot of these previous

peaks. So, we have something under our

price action. So, that's just a quick um

summary of how to read the VRVP and use

it to identify price levels. But then I

like to sharpen all of these up based on

what the candles are actually doing. So,

here, you know, this makes a lot of

sense. Maybe you want to drop it from

where the VRVP is to these previous lows

just to sharpen that up a little bit.

Cuts right through our trading range

here. Well, you know, maybe it was

actually good there. Um, and the point I

wanted to make is to think of these not

as an exact dollar and cent amount. Uh,

and I see the question in the chat

forever new, but I'll get back to that

in one second, but to think of it as a

little bit of a range. So, if we go back

in history, it's like, okay, yes, this

candle bounced exactly from this price

point. So did this candle. I mean, we

can go back probably further uh and see

if um, you know, we had some resistance

from it here. So, some of the candles

interact exactly with it. Some of them

wick below. And just to illustrate what

I mean by range, we can just draw a

little colored rectangle. And I would

say if we're taking those wicks into

account, maybe this is our support range

that we are thinking about for the

current price action. And I'm just going

to keep this on the chart for now um to

see what this shows us as we draw up

more of our diagonal support um as we

get into looking at the TA. Um okay,

Forever Noob, do you use VRVP for entry

and exit points like setting limit

orders at peaks or in a sense? So, um,

forever new, I'm using, um, VRVP to

identify these zones and then I'm

saying, do these horizontal levels align

with what makes sense in the price

action? And this line we're at very much

does. I mean, you know, we can just see

all these previous peaks. This got a

little bit higher, but then we found

support at that point right here.

Support again. So, this has been an

important price zone uh in Salana's

recent trading, but it's not the only

zone that's important. If we're just

going off the price action, you might

make an argument that this level right

here, which isn't necessarily a big

cluster on the VRVP, but at 163, you've

also found some lows and some highs in

this area. And let's just go back in

time. Yeah. And you see all these other

highs. Um, so I if you can identify

things visually with the price action

and the VRVP, um, I think that's

helpful. And I think if we brought in

more of the historical trading range, we

would see more of a VRVP spike here at

163. Um, but then, uh, to your point in

the question, we're trying to buy into

support. So, I always talk about in my

swing trading or my perp trading buying

into clear invalidation zones. Meaning

that you're looking for the charts to be

oversold as you're getting to this

level. So, you're buying with confidence

that if you're oversold and mean

reversion is deviated to the downside,

there's a much higher chance that you're

going to bounce. If you're getting into

one of these support lines and RSI is

dropping but only in the middle of the

range and mean reversion is in the

middle of the range, you're most likely

going to push through that support and

then need you need to look at the next

one down below. But now we're at a point

where the charts are oversold as we got

into this current price action or price

level at around 175. And that increases

the chances of a bounce from this point.

And if we break down, you want to have

your stop set at a reasonable point

below that. And we can sharpen that up

once we really, you know, get into the

current price action. Uh, and then that

lets you get out of a trade with a

smaller loss. And then you can look to

reposition it again at that next

potential bounce point, which if we

break down would probably be around that

165 area. So, hope that helps. Okay. Um,

so those are the settings for VRVP.

You're welcome, Forever Noob. Volume

down here. I don't tweak anything on

these settings. Just briefly on volume,

we're using volume in a couple of ways.

So these whereas VRVP is broken out

between blue for buy orders, uh, yellow

for sell orders. And I think now out of

the box they changed this to like pink

and teal or something. Um, but the

traditional colors are the blue and

yellow. So I always change it back to

that. But these volume candles, these

are aggregate volume candles, meaning

they're accounting for all the buy and

sell volumes. uh volumes, all the buy

and sell volume in that particular

candle. So, since we're on the 4 hour

chart, within that four hours, there was

a really high spike in the volume and

it's tinted red because there was at

least 51% sell volume. Um, and in this

instance with the green candles, at

least 51% buy volume. uh it was probably

more than 51% sell volume, but at least

that to tint it red. And these big

volume spikes, which is actually a good

sign for us right now, generally lead to

uh turnaround points in the trend. And

we can see we had the last big one here

on April 7th. This one here was actually

after that spike up when Trump announced

the strategic crypto reserve. So that

volume spike was a leading indicator to

you that this rally isn't going to last

and could potentially turn around. The

one we saw before that was at our

all-time high. So you can see that we

had a very significant event yesterday

uh from a volume perspective on Salana

as well as on many other assets. Uh now

there is still a chance we could correct

a little bit more. Um which I'll get

into once we get into the charts, but at

least from a volume perspective, things

are looking good. And the other time you

want to see a volume spike is if you

have overhead resistance. Say this is a

price level and we're coming into it and

we hit it and we hit it and we hit it

again and then we finally break through.

At this point here, you generally want

to see a big volume spike to confirm

that as a valid breakout or even a

breakdown. If we break down from a

support and you don't see volume

followrough, more often than not, that

leads to a fake out uh and just a

reversal in the other direction. And

that traps either breakout traders or

people who are going short. And this is

actually a great indicator to give you a

lead on if you're seeing a double

bottom. So, we'll get into this later,

but at here we have a double top, right?

Uh the inverse of that is a double

bottom at uh price finding support. Um

and if that second bottom just goes

slightly lower and then reverses back up

and you don't see any volume. So, I drew

that as at a good point because there

was no volume follow-rough. That's uh

what we call in trading a bear trap

because anybody who had a short set to

trigger underneath that previous low

because they're assuming that we're

coming out of you know price structure

that is making lower low, lower high,

lower low, lower high and is going to

keep breaking down. They would enter

their shorts there only for the price

action to get reversed um and then be on

the losing side of that trade. So volume

is very important to keep you um from

getting burned on some of those moves.

All right, so we've got all those dialed

in and now it's time to look at the

confluence model. So I'm going to turn

off the third instance for now and we'll

just worry about the first two

instances. So the first one I'm going to

set to bullish

and that will move this cloud up. And

then I turn off the back test. Here's

the back test. I don't really use the

back test in my swing trading or perp

trading. I'm mostly relying on RSI and

mean reversion. Some people like to use

the back test just to give them

assurance that their settings are dialed

in in right and that's totally fine. If

I was doing that, I would put it at the

bottom of the chart so it doesn't

interfere with the VRVP.

But the broader point, if you are using

it, it's optimized for the 4 hour and

you want to set your back test date to

the last epoch, meaning the bottom of

the bare market. So for Salana, this

would be November, early November of 22

when FTX crashed. I think it was like

the 6th or the 9th. If this was for the

Tesla chart, that would be early 2023

when we hit that $104 or $106. Um, I

can't recall the date, but it was just

right at the start of 2023. Um, so look

for that and then set your back test to

that particular window. Uh quick inside

tip. I'm um releasing a video right

after this uh with a gentleman named

Kurt in the IIA community who's really

dialed in the rotation model and he has

found that he gets the best results on

that. Just as a quick aside, setting all

his equity back tests to uh April 7th to

the recent bottom because that was over

a 20% correction in markets I think were

21%. So, he's treating that at the as

the recent epoch and he found that that

was giving him the best results. So, um

interesting little aside there. Anyway,

we're going to turn that off for now.

And then on the style, I'm just going to

turn off the buy and sell signals

because I don't want conflicting buy and

sell signals with these multiple instances.

instances.

And then we'll go to the second one. And

while we're here, why not? We'll turn

off the buy and sell signals. And then

we'll go back to the inputs tab. We turn

off the back test.

There we go. No more back test. And for

this one, we are going to make it

bearish. And that gives us the two

instances of the cloud right here. All

right. So then we'll hit okay. And then

the last thing to do is to bring on the

third instance. And I'm using this just

for the buy and sell signal. So uh you

can see when I turn this on, things get

really busy because now it's giving you

three instances of the cloud. So, we'll

go to settings, keep this on neutral,

turn off the back test, and this one is

where it gets different. We keep the

shapes for the buy and sell signals, and

we just turn off the plot, which is the

cloud outline there. So, hit okay. And

now everything is dialed in in terms of

how we read the price action. And I'm

getting a little bit ahead of things

because I wanted to look at the TA

without this on there. But while we're

here, I want to talk about how to read

the price action within the cloud. And I

want you to ignore this chunk of price

action right here because this is one

area on the Salana chart where the price

action interacted with the clouds in a

way that I haven't seen in two years of

tracking this. And it normally you see

it very definitively within one of the

bands. here it was just chopping from

the center to the upper center uh uh

upper back and forth in a point of

indecision. Uh we actually had a massive

wedge pattern here that was a tightening

range too but I think that indecision

was just marked by you know August

seasonality. Bitcoin was cooling off a

little bit but then there was a lot of

bullish sentiment of Salana ETFs coming.

So, it was this bit of a tugofwar

between the bulls and the bears trying

to figure out what the next move was. A

lot of indecision. But if we're taking

that out of the equation, the way we

think about the confluence model and the

way price action interacts with these

clouds is that there is a repeating

narrative playing out that happens time

and time again where we go through the

upper band, center band, lower band,

center band, upper band, center band, uh

you would assume lower band. So the

point is I want you to always assume

that this flow of upper band, center

band, lower band, center band, upper

band, lower band is playing out on

repeat. And when you don't get that

happening, that's giving you an equally

important signal saying that there's

either way more strength in the charts

currently because that rhythm isn't

playing out or in this instance where

we're coming center band, lower band,

center band can't break into the upper

band and reject. That's telling you the

opposite that there's more weakness. We

take one more trip down. Then we get to

the center band uh consolidate and back

into the upper band and back on track

with the normal rhythm. So if you can

assume that base case and then see that

the charts are telling you something

different when that doesn't happen, that

really sets you up for success in your

trades. In this instance, like this is

an area where we'd look for an entry,

get into the upper band and then center

band and you can't break down. You would

assume we'd break down here. Oh, it has

enough strength to go for one more

swing. Um, and this works across most

assets. I haven't tested everything, but

it works with commodities. I looked at

it with someone on an FX chart this

week. FX

interacts in its own way. Um, but for

most, let's say, stocks that you are

trading, um, you can assume or crypto

that this kind of flow works. And right

now we just saw a very similar thing

play out at least here on the 4 hour

where we were in the upper band, center

band or I'm sorry, center band, lower

band, and then we just couldn't break

up. We tried multiple multiple times and

then rejected and now we're back in the

lower band. And the assumption is

because we're on support, we're going to

recover and get back into the center

band and see if we can um kind of get

back on track with this current trend.

So, uh, there's one more thing I want to

say in terms of the swings we take in

those bands. But any general questions

right now before I move on from how to

Okay. Well, I will keep going then. All

right. So now the last thing I'll note

here is that we also want to assume that

when we are in an aggressive uptrend or

downtrend and by that I mean there are

periods where the clouds are moving

horizontally um like we see right there

um you could even see a small bit right

here where they're moving horizontally

where you just anticipate more chop back

and forth. And these zones can often be

the most lucrative to trade because you

can just go long and short, you know,

and really play both sides of the

market. So paying attention to those

horizontal bands is important. But when

price action is increasing and the bands

are expanding to the upside or moving

aggressively to the downside,

we have to assume that price action is

spending some time in those bands. And

I've found back testing this that it

normally takes two or three swings. So

here we have an instance of two swings

before breaking in. Here we have an

instance of three swings before breaking

in. Here we have that instance of two

swings. So by two swings I mean at least

one rejection from the center band. Um

and this was an anomaly that showed you

some weakness where you would assume

we're going to go for another swing and

it just broke down right off the first

one. So you don't see that very often.

Um, and this one here, this was another

one where it showed you actually

short-term strength because you would

assume that's kind of swing one that we

would take one more move and it broke

through rather quickly. But if you can

set your base case to that couple of

swings, two to three, that also helps

you layer in and layer out of trades and

not get out of a position too early or

uh e enter too soon. So, um, in terms of

entries and exits, what we're looking

for, and we're doing the class a bit

backwards today because we haven't even

gotten into the TA, but we're going to

take these off and look at the TA in a

second. Um, so in terms of what we're

looking for here is I'm looking for a to

sell a mean reversion dot that aligns

with the RSI being above the 70 level.

So this zone right here or being below

the 30 level. So this dot right here to

buy. And that helps you avoid all these

other mean reversion signals that you

might get along the way because your

criteria of 30 has not been hit yet at

that particular point. But as it applies

to layering in and layering out of

positions because this can be a great

way to trade, but you can also see some

liability. If you would have gotten into

a trade here based on the signals,

um you might have gotten out here and

back in again. And we can talk about

that in a minute. Um how to determine

that tolerance. But once we really go

into an uptrend, you get a clear exit

signal right here. And I was making the

mistake early on of with these more

extreme spikes, taking profits too early

and then there's still a lot of the move

left. So what I do now is if I'm being

conservative, I um take a little bit of

my position off, you know, maybe 15 to

20%. And then on the next RSI spike with

mean reversion dots on the journey up

because this is swing two, I'll take

about another 30% off. and then I'll

take another 30% off on that third swing

if we get it. Now, if we wouldn't have

gotten it and if we would have broken

right back into the center cloud, that's

when I exit the rest of my trade. Um,

but then I'm at 80% between 20 here, 30,

30, and I'm getting a good average exit.

and then I still have 20% of my trade

hanging on that I can leave as a runner

just in case, you know, sometimes we

chop around and continue higher. Um, but

most of the time if we do break back

into the center cloud, particularly if

we back test it for resistance and

reject, I'll just exit the rest of my

position and then I'll wait for the next

entry signal. Now, the inverse of that

is true to the downside where often I

won't even enter on the first um signal.

Now, this is a one where it would have

made sense to enter because it recovered

quickly, but hindsight's always 2020.

But sometimes I don't even enter and I

just get ready to deploy um on that

first swing because I'm assuming it's

going to take at least one more swing

lower, maybe two. And so in this

instance, if I didn't enter here, I

would have to once we break into the

center cloud and back test it for

support, I would have to chase the move

and realize it's recovering quickly. But

for a scenario where we would get those

two swings, say we had two and then we

broke back in. That would look like

entering about 30% to 40% of my trade

there. And then if we get another swing

down, I would deploy another 30 to 40%.

Um, but if you don't get that, then the

rest of it I usually enter when we break

back into the center cloud just in terms

of, you know, confirmation. And then I

usually try to hold through some of the

sideways chop until we really move into

um an aggressive uptrend uh on the

smaller time frames. The, you know, the

4hour chart is a much different story. So

that's the basics of entries and exit.

Uh George says, "Fib has also made an

approximate retracement of 50% to

current levels from April 25." Yes, very

astute. Uh George, we will look at that.

And fibs are something I use a lot in my

trading. Um and just to sharpen that up

for people who haven't used FIBS. Um if

we just look at the price action here.

here.

Oh, what is that clicking on? I'm

There we go. I just wanted to make that

full screen. All right. So, from that

April 7th bottom, I'll turn off the

confluence mall clouds just so we can

see it. So, the 50% level is very

important in trading. Uh the second tool

down is the fib retracement tool. But if

we're going from the highs here back

down to the lows on April 7th, and you

know what, let me extend this out into

the future. You can see how the 50%

really plays a lot of strong support. We

ultimately broke down from this um when

the US got involved in the Israel Iran

conflict, but for all intents and

purposes that really held well. So

assessing that for uh local zones is

really important for horizontal support

and resistance. But the one thing I'll

say on FIBS um which I go into more

detail on my TA classes, but these don't

carry weight across time as much as the

price-based horizontal levels that we

drew. These white lines, these white

lines 6 months into the future, if we

come back into them from the overside,

could still play support or resistance

if we approach them from the underside.

But this fib range here is now

essentially done and dusted in the sense

that it doesn't carry much weight over

to our current price action.

There we are. Um, if we extended this out,

out,

our fib levels really aren't falling

anywhere meaningfully. What you can do

is you can adjust it for this overall

swing now if you want top to bottom and

you could see if you are getting any

major levels there. So, oh, you could

see, yeah, I think that's the 50% you

were talking about um, right there that

we're coming into. So, that's a major

zone that we're going to be getting into

soon. And we could also see if we take

this last swing up, we are also on the

236 fib level right now where we

bounced. So, we have a couple important

zones um coming up. So, um George, thank

you for flagging that just as a quick

little aside, but fib levels are very um

important in trading. Now, the last

thing I wanted to mention just on RSI

and how how to sharpen this up with mean

reversion and then we'll look at the TA

uh without um IADSS um and then we can

bring both of those together at the end.

But if we bring back up RSI and mean

reversion, at least on the 4hour chart

here, notice how in these uptrends the

4hour RSI never resets back to 30. it

never really gives you an entry even

though you do get some mean reversion

dots in these uptrends that could be

good for playing all these swings. Well,

this varies a little bit from asset to

asset, but for Salana on the 4hour,

while it's in an uptrend, it tends to uh

define kind of a new base for the price

action. And I would say here it's around

42 in this zone right here. For this

next run up, it's maybe a little bit

lower. We would say 38 to 39 for this

next zone here. Um and I skipped one

right there. Uh also at about 38 to 39

right there. So when you're in a strong

uptrend and these generally run for four

to six weeks um you know just in terms

of a ballpark

uh if you are trading these smaller

swings on the 4 hour this becomes your

new 30 level or your oversold level on

the RSI the 1 hour chart will still

generally reset on a lot of these moves

getting below 30 but the daily won't do

it the higher time frames they generally

don't do it in an uptrend so this would

have at least given you in this

particular uptrend one entry and then it

would have given you a couple exits here

on this first swing up in the cloud. So

you're getting an exit here. You are

getting uh you're barely touching there

but really you're getting your main exit

up here. Um, so again, looking at those

three swings in the upper band and then

as you're coming into this zone here and

you're not breaking into the lower

cloud, it's giving you that entry signal

at both these price points, which this

one was actually slightly lower to get

back into the trade in this horizontal

range and then gives you another chance

to exit up here where really you only

get one exit signal and then you break

back into the center cloud. Um so

identifying for the crypto you are

trading how it interacts with the RSI

during uptrends uh is important and you

can see the same thing is playing out

here and in this recent uptrend and now

we've reset twice. So we need to figure

out what is this new level going to be

in our current uptrend. This is

reminiscent of the Israel Iran conflict

which was this downtrend right here

where we actually reset the 4hour RSI a

couple of times uh in that downtrend

before really getting into the next

meaningful move. Um and I guess you

could argue if you're into Elliot wave

that you had an ABC uh correction, but

that's a bit of an aside um that is uh

beyond today's uh discussion. So

yeah, I guess you could argue maybe

we're doing that ABC correction now too

depending on where you know this

eventually uh lands or maybe we have

landed. All right. Uh any

questions on that on RSI levels? Let's

see. I just saw one come up in the chat.

Thank you guys for using the chat.

Thomas, real quick, do you have a name

for the previous confluence pattern?

High, mid, high, mid. Oh, this right

here. I I don't really have a name for

it. I The way I traded this is we had

just a tightening range. So, I was

trading it as a symmetrical triangle.

So, you know, I'm bringing in um outside

of the confluence model, I'm just

bringing in some TA like this. Uh, and

then once we got a break to one side or

the other, then you could do a measured

move target of where that would most

likely land. Um, and then that got us

uh pretty close to our highs. With all

these kind of pattern price targets, you

usually think of them as a range. Um,

and if we have time at the end, we can

look at Salana does a lot of great

patterns for price targets. This double

top played out perfectly for this

bottom. We had an inverse head and

shoulders down here that played out

perfectly for this target. um in terms

of TA salon is really great uh for those

kinds of things. Uh what is the expected

behavior? Robert is asking expected

behavior for Saul for the next two

weeks. Oh, I wish I knew. Uh, Robert. Um,

Um,

so the everything was looking strong and

I would have said if 205 here would have

held, I would have thrown everything I

had at going long on Salana.

Now, since we've had a structural

breakdown um of key levels, and the

reason I say key levels is we're

continuing in this downtrend with a

lower high and a lower low. Um so, who

knows how long that's going to take to

resolve. Uh this would have given us a

higher low, which would have put us well

on the way to recovery, but we also had

a perfect bump and run pattern here that

overshot the price target. So, a bump

and run pattern. Actually, Salana does

these a lot. What is where you have an uptrend

uptrend

and let me turn off the confluence model

um so we can see this a little better.

All right, so you have an uptrend and

you have the leadin phase which is the

average of the price action. Then you

have the bump phase where it accelerates

and then the run phase where it corrects

back down. And the target for a bump and

run pattern is the middle of the point

of congestion in the leadin phase. So,

this is the lead-in phase. The middle of

that point of congestion is these

previous highs and these previous lows,

which gets us to our next low. And just

to prove that that's not a one-time

event, if we take our next run up, we

can see that the exact same thing plays

out where we have our leadin phase,

the bump, and then the run. And that

gets right to the middle of the point of

congestion there. I drew it a little too

high. Uh this was not as clean a point

of congestion as the last one, but we

can just measure out honestly the 50%

level. Why not for this local range? Uh

and you can see how we landed pretty

much to the middle of that congestion

range. And the one we had just now was

on a little smaller time frame. But the

same principle applies where we have our

trend and once that breaks you have, you

know, the leadin the bump and the point

of congestion would have been right here

by our trend line at 205 which aligns

with the confluence model support on the

4 hour which I have turned off. Perfect.

Um, right there. So, the fact that we

broke down from that now

has the chart in a weaker position and

it has to prove to us um what it wants

to do and that it's going to recover.

But I think we can look back at this

zone in the price action for some clues

on um that recovery happening. So, uh

let's see. Nathan is asking, "Can we see

how you trade Aster and would I trade

it?" Sure. I haven't looked at Aster in

a couple of weeks. Um, let's go to that

after we finish up on Salana here. Um,

because I just want to use the TA really

quickly to help us identify breakdowns

and recoveries. So,

let's just look at this past example

here on the runup. And we had our

underside support holding. Uh, one quick

thing. I'm not drawing off of this low

or the April 7th low because sometimes

crypto has these extreme fear events.

This was when the US got involved in the

Israel Iran conflict. April 7th was a

terow where just the fear of the um I

guess the extreme fear and

overexaggerated selling leads to price

action that is outside of the norm. Um,

and that happens with exuberant blow-off

tops as well. So sometimes with crypto,

you can use some discretion and say,

"Okay, this April 7th bottom was

extreme, and if I try to draw a trend

line off of that, it really doesn't

align well with the rest of the price

action." But if I just go off the next

little valley and draw the trend line

back in, then it provides perfect

support. So, um I don't normally say

that with equities, but with crypto, we can do that. Um just because of the

can do that. Um just because of the nature of how it reacts. And let's look

nature of how it reacts. And let's look at this. So, we obviously had our bump

at this. So, we obviously had our bump and run pattern, but we can have our

and run pattern, but we can have our major trend line. You can also draw

major trend line. You can also draw minor trend lines like this. And when

minor trend lines like this. And when things start breaking down, it just

things start breaking down, it just gives you a lead on the trend turning.

gives you a lead on the trend turning. So, this trend line breaking and back

So, this trend line breaking and back testing for resistance is an early lead

testing for resistance is an early lead of things turning. Then, interestingly

of things turning. Then, interestingly enough, if we're looking at our RSI

enough, if we're looking at our RSI support that held this whole way up on

support that held this whole way up on this dip, even though we found support,

this dip, even though we found support, our RSI deviated.

our RSI deviated. And so, that's an early sign of

And so, that's an early sign of weakness. Tried to recover, ultimately

weakness. Tried to recover, ultimately break broke down again and failed. This

break broke down again and failed. This was when Jerome Pal was more hawkish

was when Jerome Pal was more hawkish during an FOMC meeting. So, we got a

during an FOMC meeting. So, we got a wick below another deviation of the RSI

wick below another deviation of the RSI and ultimately broke down. Um, so you

and ultimately broke down. Um, so you can use these trend lines, you know, for

can use these trend lines, you know, for early leads that things are going to

early leads that things are going to correct more. And if you hadn't already

correct more. And if you hadn't already gotten it out of the trade at this

gotten it out of the trade at this point, this would be a great time to

point, this would be a great time to exit if you were in it, you know, from

exit if you were in it, you know, from the very beginning of the trade. But in

the very beginning of the trade. But in terms of the recovery, you can do the

terms of the recovery, you can do the same thing with overhead resistance

same thing with overhead resistance lines on the recovery. And I think it's

lines on the recovery. And I think it's worthwhile that we do that on our

worthwhile that we do that on our current price action now as well. And so

current price action now as well. And so we would draw our major overhead

we would draw our major overhead resistance right here.

resistance right here. And then we can draw as price action

And then we can draw as price action accelerates and fear comes into the

accelerates and fear comes into the market, you can draw a minor trend line

market, you can draw a minor trend line there. And really, if you want to get

there. And really, if you want to get really close to the market, you could

really close to the market, you could even draw one trend line right here. And

even draw one trend line right here. And the way I'm using these

the way I'm using these uh and you can bring this together with

uh and you can bring this together with the cloud, but we're getting all our

the cloud, but we're getting all our bottoming signals in terms of the 4hour

bottoming signals in terms of the 4hour RSI and a mean reversion dot and

RSI and a mean reversion dot and overcoming this first uh trend line is

overcoming this first uh trend line is just telling you that okay, the selling

just telling you that okay, the selling pressure is subsiding and we're starting

pressure is subsiding and we're starting to recover. Now, breaking above the

to recover. Now, breaking above the second trend line and back testing it

second trend line and back testing it for support is a very strong signal. And

for support is a very strong signal. And the other thing you had right here was

the other thing you had right here was the 200 day moving average. So, seeing a

the 200 day moving average. So, seeing a bounce from this point, if you didn't

bounce from this point, if you didn't already get in here, this would be all

already get in here, this would be all systems go for a trade. And we can just

systems go for a trade. And we can just see where this aligns with the

see where this aligns with the confluence model. Uh, and you know what?

confluence model. Uh, and you know what? It's actually a little bit before you

It's actually a little bit before you break back into the confluence model

break back into the confluence model center band. So, using some TA and trend

center band. So, using some TA and trend lines, we're actually getting in a

lines, we're actually getting in a little bit earlier at 262 as opposed to

little bit earlier at 262 as opposed to 267. So, uh, that can be meaningful in

267. So, uh, that can be meaningful in terms of a perp trade. All right. Um,

terms of a perp trade. All right. Um, and then you have the final overhead

and then you have the final overhead resistance break. You know, we got two

resistance break. You know, we got two candles there uh for eight hours that

candles there uh for eight hours that rejected a little wick down and then

rejected a little wick down and then finally pushed through. So, let's see

finally pushed through. So, let's see what that means for our current price

what that means for our current price action. And before we look at the

action. And before we look at the downtrend, the last thing I want to do

downtrend, the last thing I want to do here is we've been drawing these

here is we've been drawing these underside supports uh you know on each

underside supports uh you know on each of these three major uptrends that we've

of these three major uptrends that we've had since April 7th. So, we drew one

had since April 7th. So, we drew one here, one here, and one here. And I

here, one here, and one here. And I guess you could have drawn one there as

guess you could have drawn one there as well. But now, I think it's time to look

well. But now, I think it's time to look at the bigger picture and say, what's

at the bigger picture and say, what's our overall trend since April 7th? And

our overall trend since April 7th? And what's the line in the sand where we

what's the line in the sand where we might need to get a little bit more

might need to get a little bit more bearish on Salana? And I would put that

bearish on Salana? And I would put that line as being right here between these

line as being right here between these two touch points. And that's coming in

two touch points. And that's coming in right at the 200 day moving average and

right at the 200 day moving average and intersecting our support. So, we have a

intersecting our support. So, we have a ton of confluence of support coming

ton of confluence of support coming together all in one place for Salana.

together all in one place for Salana. And if this fails, we should be on alert

And if this fails, we should be on alert that something's not right in the crypto

that something's not right in the crypto versse. Um, and we should uh

versse. Um, and we should uh unfortunately consider uh hedging or

unfortunately consider uh hedging or exiting some positions uh in my opinion.

exiting some positions uh in my opinion. And if we bring in the confluence model

And if we bring in the confluence model as well on the daily, the confluence

as well on the daily, the confluence model cloud, the center cloud is right

model cloud, the center cloud is right there as well. Look at that. It's coming

there as well. Look at that. It's coming in right smack dab in the middle of that

in right smack dab in the middle of that that's going to intersect. We have our

that's going to intersect. We have our trend line down below. So, you know,

trend line down below. So, you know, little wicks below the 200 day or the

little wicks below the 200 day or the trend line or um the confluence model

trend line or um the confluence model cloud are fine, but if we come down into

cloud are fine, but if we come down into this, we would want to see a clean

this, we would want to see a clean bounce off this trend line um as

bounce off this trend line um as something definitive as opposed to

something definitive as opposed to breaking down from it. So the reason I'm

breaking down from it. So the reason I'm saying in the near- term I think we

saying in the near- term I think we might have just a little bit more

might have just a little bit more correction is twofold. If we look at the

correction is twofold. If we look at the smaller time frames and I guess even the

smaller time frames and I guess even the 1 hour

1 hour when we saw the bottom yesterday for a

when we saw the bottom yesterday for a convincing V-shaped recovery,

convincing V-shaped recovery, we bounced. This was in 8 minutes. We

we bounced. This was in 8 minutes. We had an 18% bounce from 176 to 210. And

had an 18% bounce from 176 to 210. And then we just kept bleeding out from

then we just kept bleeding out from there. When you can't see a V-shaped

there. When you can't see a V-shaped bounce like that hold and build

bounce like that hold and build structure, it usually means that we are

structure, it usually means that we are going to bleed out to test the lows or

going to bleed out to test the lows or drop slightly below them. Uh that

drop slightly below them. Uh that there's just not near-term strength in

there's just not near-term strength in the charts. So that's one reason I think

the charts. So that's one reason I think we're in the near term potentially going

we're in the near term potentially going to dip just a little bit lower. And if

to dip just a little bit lower. And if we're looking at the 4 hour as well in

we're looking at the 4 hour as well in terms of what we've been talking about

terms of what we've been talking about how we interact with the clouds, we

how we interact with the clouds, we might get a near-term bounce. We

might get a near-term bounce. We absolutely could. But if we bounce back

absolutely could. But if we bounce back up to this center cloud, I'm thinking,

up to this center cloud, I'm thinking, gosh, are we going to get one more

gosh, are we going to get one more rejection and take a second swing before

rejection and take a second swing before breaking into the center cloud here on

breaking into the center cloud here on the 4 hour. Um, so I'm really watching

the 4 hour. Um, so I'm really watching that as well. So, anything, you know,

that as well. So, anything, you know, before we break above 193, let's say,

before we break above 193, let's say, uh, to get into that center cloud would

uh, to get into that center cloud would still have some proving to do. Um, so I

still have some proving to do. Um, so I would say, you know, I'm optimistic

would say, you know, I'm optimistic because of all the support below for the

because of all the support below for the midterm, but for the short term, I'm

midterm, but for the short term, I'm still being a little cautious until the

still being a little cautious until the price action can prove a recovery to me.

price action can prove a recovery to me. Uh, and if we're just looking at

Uh, and if we're just looking at overhead resistance now, we can

overhead resistance now, we can obviously from our local high here, we

obviously from our local high here, we can connect the dots, and I'll have to

can connect the dots, and I'll have to extend this out a little bit, uh, to

extend this out a little bit, uh, to what our major overhead resistance would

what our major overhead resistance would now be. uh if we get into that a third

now be. uh if we get into that a third time and then we can extend that out.

time and then we can extend that out. Actually, Salana gave us a nice clean

Actually, Salana gave us a nice clean line there with three touch points. Um

line there with three touch points. Um so, it's giving us a very reliable

so, it's giving us a very reliable overhead resistance here. I don't think

overhead resistance here. I don't think there's really a third trend line to pay

there's really a third trend line to pay attention to. I mean, you could try to

attention to. I mean, you could try to go into the 1 hour, but it seems like,

go into the 1 hour, but it seems like, you know, any with that wick up, we

you know, any with that wick up, we didn't really respect it. But you would

didn't really respect it. But you would say if you drew it there, which I guess

say if you drew it there, which I guess you could, right, based off the 1 hour,

you could, right, based off the 1 hour, we already broke above that, but are

we already broke above that, but are just tracking horizontally. Um, hence

just tracking horizontally. Um, hence not showing that much that much strength

not showing that much that much strength at the moment. But if we're going off

at the moment. But if we're going off these two trend lines, those would be

these two trend lines, those would be the ones that I'm tracking in the near

the ones that I'm tracking in the near term um to help us gauge if we are going

term um to help us gauge if we are going to recover. We have all that support

to recover. We have all that support down below. Um, and we just need to

down below. Um, and we just need to either reclaim one of these trend lines

either reclaim one of these trend lines or the confluence model center cloud. So

or the confluence model center cloud. So that's the near-term. Uh, all right.

that's the near-term. Uh, all right. Uh, so Aster was one of the requests.

Uh, so Aster was one of the requests. And then Thomas is asking, can you show

And then Thomas is asking, can you show how you use the 1 minute, 3 minute, and

how you use the 1 minute, 3 minute, and 5 minute for per entry for Salana? Yes.

5 minute for per entry for Salana? Yes. Uh we might want to go back a little bit

Uh we might want to go back a little bit uh just because yesterday was so extreme

uh just because yesterday was so extreme but we can absolutely do that and I mean

but we can absolutely do that and I mean we could even just talk about it in

we could even just talk about it in terms of the 3minut in this

terms of the 3minut in this consolidation range right now because

consolidation range right now because even though it looks like nothing on the

even though it looks like nothing on the chart the price action yesterday was so

chart the price action yesterday was so extreme but you are getting meaningful

extreme but you are getting meaningful swings here um you know from what is

swings here um you know from what is that 180 up to 188 um and We are in a

that 180 up to 188 um and We are in a very horizontal tightening range. Gosh,

very horizontal tightening range. Gosh, you can just see how this is squeezing

you can just see how this is squeezing and getting tighter and tighter. This

and getting tighter and tighter. This would be a little risky to trade now.

would be a little risky to trade now. But uh just let's look at this. So this

But uh just let's look at this. So this is one of these instances where I would

is one of these instances where I would change mean reversion to be uh more

change mean reversion to be uh more aggressive. Uh so I change that to very

aggressive. Uh so I change that to very aggressive there just to get some

aggressive there just to get some signals. And we'll look at this and then

signals. And we'll look at this and then we'll look at some more normal price

we'll look at some more normal price action. Trading view is freezing on me.

action. Trading view is freezing on me. All right. So, uh in terms of uh just

All right. So, uh in terms of uh just trading this right here, we let's see

trading this right here, we let's see where was our last entry signal. So, we

where was our last entry signal. So, we would have uh it didn't really nail that

would have uh it didn't really nail that big bounce up, which is interesting that

big bounce up, which is interesting that it did not nail that on the 3minut for

it did not nail that on the 3minut for an exit. I wonder if it just happened

an exit. I wonder if it just happened far too quickly. Um but this would have

far too quickly. Um but this would have had you entering here and exiting on

had you entering here and exiting on this spike, which is not nearly as good.

this spike, which is not nearly as good. I wonder if the one minute gave us a

I wonder if the one minute gave us a better entry, but this was crazy

better entry, but this was crazy yesterday. So, let's maybe just start

yesterday. So, let's maybe just start here where you're getting an exit

here where you're getting an exit signal, uh, an entry signal, and then

signal, uh, an entry signal, and then your next exit signal is on this peak

your next exit signal is on this peak right here. Um, so again, I'm just

right here. Um, so again, I'm just looking for mean reversion dots and RSI

looking for mean reversion dots and RSI to get above those current levels. And

to get above those current levels. And now you can just see we're very neutral.

now you can just see we're very neutral. This isn't a great trading environment

This isn't a great trading environment right now. Um, because it's very

right now. Um, because it's very indecisive on the small time frames, but

indecisive on the small time frames, but let's go back in time a little bit to

let's go back in time a little bit to see something a bit more normal. And

see something a bit more normal. And really even in this downtrend um you can

really even in this downtrend um you can see how you could trade the uh five

see how you could trade the uh five minute uh let's see if it's given yeah

minute uh let's see if it's given yeah it's just barely giving you these

it's just barely giving you these entries and exits. So you have an exit

entries and exits. So you have an exit up here an entry just before down here

up here an entry just before down here entry exit points up here above 70. Here

entry exit points up here above 70. Here are your entry points again. Then it's

are your entry points again. Then it's just touching 70 here giving you your

just touching 70 here giving you your exit points. Entry points again. exit

exit points. Entry points again. exit points. Uh giving you the entry points a

points. Uh giving you the entry points a little bit early here and then giving

little bit early here and then giving you your exit points here. Another entry

you your exit points here. Another entry point uh below 30 there and then an exit

point uh below 30 there and then an exit point uh before that big crash. Now,

point uh before that big crash. Now, these extreme downtrends, if you've been

these extreme downtrends, if you've been trading this this whole time, this is

trading this this whole time, this is where things get tricky because you're

where things get tricky because you're starting to get entry points and the

starting to get entry points and the price action keeps turning against you.

price action keeps turning against you. So this is why stops are important uh

So this is why stops are important uh for an event like yesterday where you

for an event like yesterday where you would have gotten a good entry here

would have gotten a good entry here after this and it might look like some

after this and it might look like some of this is going to continue and it

of this is going to continue and it bounces for a few minutes but then

bounces for a few minutes but then breaks down below. So having those stop

breaks down below. So having those stop losses in play just telling you to cool

losses in play just telling you to cool your jets and wait for the next

your jets and wait for the next potential bottom and then you get

potential bottom and then you get another entry signal down here which

another entry signal down here which makes more sense again and then that

makes more sense again and then that next exit signal. this big spike. This

next exit signal. this big spike. This is uh something I wonder if the one

is uh something I wonder if the one minute chart would have helped you

minute chart would have helped you capitalize on that. But even that would

capitalize on that. But even that would have been it took 8 minutes for that 18%

have been it took 8 minutes for that 18% jump. I haven't seen anything like that

jump. I haven't seen anything like that on Salana in quite some time. Um but

on Salana in quite some time. Um but yeah, in this instance, the one minute

yeah, in this instance, the one minute chart definitely nailed it between the

chart definitely nailed it between the entry signals uh and then the exit right

entry signals uh and then the exit right up here uh as you were getting that mean

up here uh as you were getting that mean reversion spike and you were rejecting

reversion spike and you were rejecting from uh the confluence model center

from uh the confluence model center cloud there. So, uh, and you know, the

cloud there. So, uh, and you know, the one minute, uh, can give you a little

one minute, uh, can give you a little bit more, uh, nuance, you know, just to

bit more, uh, nuance, you know, just to trade each of these swings if, uh,

trade each of these swings if, uh, you're so inclined, but sometimes the

you're so inclined, but sometimes the one minute's a little too noisy, um, for

one minute's a little too noisy, um, for some assets. Um, so you just have to

some assets. Um, so you just have to test it. I normally default to the

test it. I normally default to the 3minut personally.

3minut personally. So, Thomas, I hope that was helpful. But

So, Thomas, I hope that was helpful. But really, I mean, you could trade on the

really, I mean, you could trade on the one minute here, similar to how we were

one minute here, similar to how we were looking at the 3minut chart.

looking at the 3minut chart. Okay. Uh, so let's see. Want to look at

Okay. Uh, so let's see. Want to look at Aster and I'm happy to pull up any other

Aster and I'm happy to pull up any other assets um and then answer any other

assets um and then answer any other questions. Um, because we've been

questions. Um, because we've been actually breezing through this uh

actually breezing through this uh relatively quickly. Normally, we're

relatively quickly. Normally, we're already at the at the 90 minute mark at

already at the at the 90 minute mark at this point. So,

all right, I'll just bring up the per chart and

chart and start on the 4 hour. The 4 hour is just

start on the 4 hour. The 4 hour is just starting to get mean reversion. So, this

starting to get mean reversion. So, this might be too

might be too large a time frame

large a time frame uh to trade Asteron still. And I don't

uh to trade Asteron still. And I don't know

know if this is giving me the price action

if this is giving me the price action from its inception or not. We can look

from its inception or not. We can look at a couple other charts just to see if

at a couple other charts just to see if we can get any more history because

we can get any more history because right now with the drop I would want to

right now with the drop I would want to get as much that looks similar on MEXC

get as much that looks similar on MEXC as much information as possible. Yeah,

as much information as possible. Yeah, that doesn't have enough um

do you look at the 4hour trend along with the three minute chart for per

with the three minute chart for per entry? Uh yes, Thomas. I'll touch on

entry? Uh yes, Thomas. I'll touch on that in one second. Let me just see if

that in one second. Let me just see if Yeah, it seemed like one of those first

Yeah, it seemed like one of those first ones we were on

ones we were on was giving us the the most um history

was giving us the the most um history here. So, uh Thomas is asking if I look

here. So, uh Thomas is asking if I look at the 4hour trend along with trading

at the 4hour trend along with trading the three-minute charts. And yes,

the three-minute charts. And yes, absolutely. And we should do that. Let

absolutely. And we should do that. Let I'll go back to Salana in one second. Um

I'll go back to Salana in one second. Um just to talk about when I sit down to

just to talk about when I sit down to trade in the morning. That's that's

trade in the morning. That's that's Thank you for bringing that up actually.

Thank you for bringing that up actually. Um, I don't just look at the small time

Um, I don't just look at the small time frames and say, am I going long or

frames and say, am I going long or short? I look at the large time frames

short? I look at the large time frames for context and say, what's the price

for context and say, what's the price action doing? Am I bullish? Am I

action doing? Am I bullish? Am I bearish? Am I neutral? Um, you know, am

bearish? Am I neutral? Um, you know, am I just cautious because it's an

I just cautious because it's an uncertain trend? And then that impacts

uncertain trend? And then that impacts my thinking on the smaller time frames

my thinking on the smaller time frames and I kind of swim upstream from the

and I kind of swim upstream from the daily to the 4 hour, 1 hour, 30 minute

daily to the 4 hour, 1 hour, 30 minute down to the small time frames that I'm

down to the small time frames that I'm actually trading. But let's just wrap up

actually trading. But let's just wrap up here on Aster really quickly. So, I wish

here on Aster really quickly. So, I wish I knew when this coin actually was

I knew when this coin actually was created um and what price point it

created um and what price point it launched at. I suppose we could look on

launched at. I suppose we could look on the internet. Um but it would be

the internet. Um but it would be interesting to see that launch price so

interesting to see that launch price so you could draw some accurate fib levels.

you could draw some accurate fib levels. You know, are they here? Um we just

You know, are they here? Um we just don't have that history and I think

don't have that history and I think drawing it off of this wick down might

drawing it off of this wick down might not be the most accurate. Um, but if I'm

not be the most accurate. Um, but if I'm looking at this on the 4 hour and just

looking at this on the 4 hour and just looking at the price action in terms of

looking at the price action in terms of uh lower low, lower high, lower low.

uh lower low, lower high, lower low. Now, presumably we might get a lower

Now, presumably we might get a lower high. What are we going to do? Um, we

high. What are we going to do? Um, we are in the lower band and we're just

are in the lower band and we're just starting to get the confluence small

starting to get the confluence small clouds. So, I would assume this is going

clouds. So, I would assume this is going to take another swing lower. Um, and it

to take another swing lower. Um, and it could bleed back out to that dollar mark

could bleed back out to that dollar mark where it was. Um, I would just, you

where it was. Um, I would just, you know, be careful with all these right

know, be careful with all these right now to just see what they're doing. The

now to just see what they're doing. The 1 hour chart, I guess you could argue

1 hour chart, I guess you could argue this is the second swing and is it going

this is the second swing and is it going to recover here or is it going to take

to recover here or is it going to take one more swing lower? Um, but the chart

one more swing lower? Um, but the chart still looks a a little bit weak. But

still looks a a little bit weak. But let's go back to Saul

let's go back to Saul and I see the other question in there.

and I see the other question in there. Um,

Um, really quickly, Jupusd Thomas is

really quickly, Jupusd Thomas is interested in. Yeah, we can do that. Um,

interested in. Yeah, we can do that. Um, but let's just talk about the multi-time

but let's just talk about the multi-time frame thing really quickly just to

frame thing really quickly just to sharpen up how we bring all that

sharpen up how we bring all that together. So, if you really wanted to

together. So, if you really wanted to get crazy, and you don't have to do this

get crazy, and you don't have to do this all the time, but you could at least,

all the time, but you could at least, you know, once a month or so, start on

you know, once a month or so, start on the weekly and say, how are things

the weekly and say, how are things looking here? And I'm going to hide mean

looking here? And I'm going to hide mean reversion and RSI for this exercise just

reversion and RSI for this exercise just so we are purely focused on the price

so we are purely focused on the price action the confluence small clouds. And

action the confluence small clouds. And on the weekly we had taken our couple

on the weekly we had taken our couple swings through the upper band and then

swings through the upper band and then we broke down and we were climbing in

we broke down and we were climbing in the neutral band and we just broke back

the neutral band and we just broke back above and really holding here. Where

above and really holding here. Where does that come in? That comes in at our

does that come in? That comes in at our 205 level on the confluence moncloud.

205 level on the confluence moncloud. can't make this stuff up. That would

can't make this stuff up. That would have been a good sign of strength here.

have been a good sign of strength here. Um, now we're in a little weaker

Um, now we're in a little weaker position and we have to imagine if we

position and we have to imagine if we climb back up that 205 is going to give

climb back up that 205 is going to give us a bit of resistance here on the

us a bit of resistance here on the weekly. So, ask me a week ago, I would

weekly. So, ask me a week ago, I would have been bullish on the weekly. I would

have been bullish on the weekly. I would have thought uh you know that this would

have thought uh you know that this would have gotten to a point, sorry,

have gotten to a point, sorry, where the clouds could begin expanding

where the clouds could begin expanding and we could start moving into another

and we could start moving into another weekly uptrend. Now, I'm just a little

weekly uptrend. Now, I'm just a little bit more cautious on the weekly. You

bit more cautious on the weekly. You know, our structure from this uptrend

know, our structure from this uptrend hasn't broken down yet. Um but if we

hasn't broken down yet. Um but if we break this trend line, we do have to be

break this trend line, we do have to be more cautious. But right now, I'm just

more cautious. But right now, I'm just saying, okay, this has to prove to me

saying, okay, this has to prove to me that it can get back above that 205

that it can get back above that 205 level to show me strength. Um, here at

level to show me strength. Um, here at least on the weekly, if we go to the

least on the weekly, if we go to the daily,

there we are. The daily uh is I mean it did break down here at 220. So the daily

did break down here at 220. So the daily has taken a similar you know trip where

has taken a similar you know trip where we had our three swings in the upper

we had our three swings in the upper band broke down and it was showing us

band broke down and it was showing us more strength. If it would have bounced

more strength. If it would have bounced from 320 we would have thought oh the

from 320 we would have thought oh the uptrend is going to continue. Now it

uptrend is going to continue. Now it just has a little bit more proving to do

just has a little bit more proving to do and maybe it needs to chop for a bit. Uh

and maybe it needs to chop for a bit. Uh we do have that strong support below. So

we do have that strong support below. So I'm thinking we're close to support on

I'm thinking we're close to support on the daily but we're probably going to

the daily but we're probably going to chop a bit and then hopefully can break

chop a bit and then hopefully can break back to the upside. But it seems like

back to the upside. But it seems like that is going to take a couple weeks now

that is going to take a couple weeks now um based on this correction to do that.

um based on this correction to do that. So near support cautiously optimistic on

So near support cautiously optimistic on the daily. If we're looking to the 4

the daily. If we're looking to the 4 hour

hour we're just in that lower band. So, we

we're just in that lower band. So, we are thinking, you know, if you're

are thinking, you know, if you're trading the small time frames right now,

trading the small time frames right now, there is absolutely a world in which

there is absolutely a world in which because you just got these signals that

because you just got these signals that this could start to bounce and could go

this could start to bounce and could go all the way up to, you know, that 196

all the way up to, you know, that 196 197 before having another swing down or

197 before having another swing down or maybe it just breaks through right

maybe it just breaks through right there. That would be the best sign of

there. That would be the best sign of strength. But, you know, you're uh

strength. But, you know, you're uh seeing clearly on the 4 hour that we're

seeing clearly on the 4 hour that we're in the lower band. It could take another

in the lower band. It could take another swing, but a bounce almost seems more

swing, but a bounce almost seems more likely based on where this price action

likely based on where this price action is right now. Then we go down to the 1

is right now. Then we go down to the 1 hour. See if we learn anything different

hour. See if we learn anything different there. Similar picture on the 1 hour, 30

there. Similar picture on the 1 hour, 30 minute. Similar picture on the 30

minute. Similar picture on the 30 minute. We're just about to get into

minute. We're just about to get into resistance. So, it's going to have a

resistance. So, it's going to have a deciding moment if it's going to break

deciding moment if it's going to break down or break up. And then 15-minute is

down or break up. And then 15-minute is the first chart that's showing you just

the first chart that's showing you just a little bit of strength and underside

a little bit of strength and underside support because it broke back into the

support because it broke back into the center cloud. So now we have a little

center cloud. So now we have a little bit of dynamic moving average support

bit of dynamic moving average support right underneath at $180. If we break

right underneath at $180. If we break down below that, get ready for some

down below that, get ready for some lower prices and testing maybe the 200

lower prices and testing maybe the 200 day moving average or this 176 level

day moving average or this 176 level again. And if we hold this, then assume

again. And if we hold this, then assume that a bounce is the most likely

that a bounce is the most likely scenario.

scenario. And the five minute, oh my god,

And the five minute, oh my god, the five minute is just really getting

the five minute is just really getting into a tightening range. And whenever

into a tightening range. And whenever these bands squeeze, that tells you that

these bands squeeze, that tells you that some kind of volatile move is incoming.

some kind of volatile move is incoming. And this squeezing is really tight. Um,

And this squeezing is really tight. Um, so something's going to happen here in

so something's going to happen here in the next few hours, I suspect. And

the next few hours, I suspect. And anytime the bands squeeze um as you can

anytime the bands squeeze um as you can see here, normally it means some kind of

see here, normally it means some kind of volatility is uh coming into the price

volatility is uh coming into the price action. Uh even right here squeezing and

action. Uh even right here squeezing and then a bit more of a move to the upside.

then a bit more of a move to the upside. So something to pay attention to just

So something to pay attention to just that squeezing price action. Uh and then

that squeezing price action. Uh and then you could really get into the three

you could really get into the three minute or one minute, but I I don't

minute or one minute, but I I don't think they're giving you much more info

think they're giving you much more info just based on the clouds uh than you

just based on the clouds uh than you were already getting by the five minute.

were already getting by the five minute. So, I hope that answers the question of,

So, I hope that answers the question of, you know, how to assess moving down all

you know, how to assess moving down all the time frames. Um, and you know, we

the time frames. Um, and you know, we can be bullish, uh, if we see a break up

can be bullish, uh, if we see a break up here for the next several hours, but

here for the next several hours, but still be cautious on the larger time

still be cautious on the larger time frames.

frames. Uh, all right. Let's see.

Say you're in, uh, Victor saying, say you're in a long position and find your

you're in a long position and find your exit. Do you switch and open a short? Um

exit. Do you switch and open a short? Um it depends Victor

it depends Victor on the uptrend. So you know if we get

on the uptrend. So you know if we get into a new uptrend now it is something

into a new uptrend now it is something that could run for several weeks and in

that could run for several weeks and in the market environment we have been in.

the market environment we have been in. We have to see if that persists. It was

We have to see if that persists. It was just so strong that I have a harder time

just so strong that I have a harder time opening shorts right away because price

opening shorts right away because price action has run

action has run beyond some of those targets a bit

beyond some of those targets a bit irrationally. The only time I really

irrationally. The only time I really open shorts is when a trend line breaks.

open shorts is when a trend line breaks. Um like we had this trend line here and

Um like we had this trend line here and this was a beautiful short just in terms

this was a beautiful short just in terms of trend line break back test for

of trend line break back test for resistance and then resolve to the

resistance and then resolve to the downside. And I also had one short right

downside. And I also had one short right here. We might have to get into the

here. We might have to get into the smaller time frames. But there was was

smaller time frames. But there was was it here or there? Anyway, there was I

it here or there? Anyway, there was I think it was yeah it was just right

think it was yeah it was just right here. uh this uptrend we were in and as

here. uh this uptrend we were in and as soon as we broke and back tested that uh

soon as we broke and back tested that uh I thought we were gonna drop uh and I

I thought we were gonna drop uh and I ultimately ended up getting stopped out

ultimately ended up getting stopped out of this just because it chopped around.

of this just because it chopped around. But those trend line breaks is something

But those trend line breaks is something I'll trade short. Um or if the clouds

I'll trade short. Um or if the clouds are very neutral tracking sideways and

are very neutral tracking sideways and we're chopping around as opposed to

we're chopping around as opposed to clearly in the upper or lower band then

clearly in the upper or lower band then I'll trade long and short a little bit

I'll trade long and short a little bit more uh consistently.

more uh consistently. All right,

All right, Thomas. Uh, JUP USD on the 15minute. I'm

Thomas. Uh, JUP USD on the 15minute. I'm seeing mean reversion minus 6 RSI minus

seeing mean reversion minus 6 RSI minus 10 on Jupusd, but feel like the

10 on Jupusd, but feel like the unpredictable price action invalidates

unpredictable price action invalidates those signals for me to uh act on. This

those signals for me to uh act on. This could apply to an uh any asset. Okay,

could apply to an uh any asset. Okay, let's look.

let's look. It's been a while since I've looked at

It's been a while since I've looked at Jupiter. I think the chart is fairly

Jupiter. I think the chart is fairly weak. Oh my gosh, that one really took a

weak. Oh my gosh, that one really took a flogging yesterday.

flogging yesterday. That was like um what's it called? Uh

That was like um what's it called? Uh XRP was down 50%.

XRP was down 50%. Fartcoin dropped 84%. Trumpcoin dropped

Fartcoin dropped 84%. Trumpcoin dropped 80 some odd percent.

87% yesterday on that drop. That is insane.

insane. Um I Yeah. Uh

Um I Yeah. Uh Naven is saying he got liquidated on

Naven is saying he got liquidated on Jupiter. That makes sense with an 87%

Jupiter. That makes sense with an 87% drop in a day. That's I really haven't

drop in a day. That's I really haven't seen price action like this since some

seen price action like this since some of the uh bad news in 2022.

of the uh bad news in 2022. I mean, uh, Thomas, if we're just

I mean, uh, Thomas, if we're just looking at Jupiter, I think you're

looking at Jupiter, I think you're fighting a bit of an uphill battle with

fighting a bit of an uphill battle with this one because we're at this our

this one because we're at this our current stage in the bull run. And since

current stage in the bull run. And since March of 24, it's been making macro

March of 24, it's been making macro lower highs and lower lows. Um, and it

lower highs and lower lows. Um, and it just feels like with a chart like this,

just feels like with a chart like this, you're fighting against the trend. We

you're fighting against the trend. We can look at it on the 15-minute and

can look at it on the 15-minute and maybe there's a bounce play to be had,

maybe there's a bounce play to be had, but I think you could have an easier

but I think you could have an easier time if you can identify a chart that

time if you can identify a chart that looks more like this. Um, as opposed to

looks more like this. Um, as opposed to what this is doing, which

what this is doing, which right now is this. Um, and I don't know

right now is this. Um, and I don't know if that's how it's going to resolve. Um,

if that's how it's going to resolve. Um, that would be negative price action.

that would be negative price action. Uh, okay. Man, if there were some people

Uh, okay. Man, if there were some people that had like low limit orders set

that had like low limit orders set yesterday, you probably just made out uh

yesterday, you probably just made out uh like a bandit. Uh if any of those

like a bandit. Uh if any of those filled. Um but let's look at it really

filled. Um but let's look at it really quickly. So daily, we broke clearly way

quickly. So daily, we broke clearly way to the downside. 4 hour, same thing.

to the downside. 4 hour, same thing. 1 hour starting to recover a little bit.

1 hour starting to recover a little bit. And we'll bring up mean reversion.

And we'll bring up mean reversion. Yeah, mean reversion obviously on all

Yeah, mean reversion obviously on all these. I think probably even on the

these. I think probably even on the daily. Yeah, it's going to be

daily. Yeah, it's going to be overextended. Weekly,

overextended. Weekly, not yet on the weekly. All right.

It's it's just getting into resistance on the 30 minute. So, this will tell you

on the 30 minute. So, this will tell you a lot if it's going to drop more um or

a lot if it's going to drop more um or if it's going to recover.

if it's going to recover. And 15 minute, it's making a little

And 15 minute, it's making a little recovery. But it's just it's tracking so

recovery. But it's just it's tracking so horizontally that really price action

horizontally that really price action like this is a little different and you

like this is a little different and you don't see it too often. But you could

don't see it too often. But you could just draw what the little range is doing

just draw what the little range is doing here. And as soon as you break to one

here. And as soon as you break to one side or the other of that range, it

side or the other of that range, it almost feels like that's the safer play

almost feels like that's the safer play to hey, maybe I should go short if it

to hey, maybe I should go short if it drops to the downside or go long if it

drops to the downside or go long if it drops to the upside. But I think you

drops to the upside. But I think you could find other assets that might um

could find other assets that might um offer you some better opportunities uh

offer you some better opportunities uh than this one. All right. Um

than this one. All right. Um Felix is asking, "Is it possible to use

Felix is asking, "Is it possible to use MEES or MNQ

MEES or MNQ uh futures 1 minute or 5 minute?" I

uh futures 1 minute or 5 minute?" I don't know. Um for for this strategy,

don't know. Um for for this strategy, Felix, is that what you're asking?

Yeah, let's just look at it uh and see if it applies.

uh and see if it applies. All right, so we're on MES here. Uh and

All right, so we're on MES here. Uh and it it seems like it's a very volatile

it it seems like it's a very volatile chart. Um

chart. Um seems like the uptrends persist a little

seems like the uptrends persist a little longer. Uh, for something like this, you

longer. Uh, for something like this, you might have to see how the uptrends run.

might have to see how the uptrends run. I mean, we clearly have the two swing

I mean, we clearly have the two swing theory down here. I guess you could

theory down here. I guess you could argue that maybe that's the three swings

argue that maybe that's the three swings there, but um, yeah, I guess you could

there, but um, yeah, I guess you could argue two swings and then you back test

argue two swings and then you back test this, you don't break down. This I would

this, you don't break down. This I would consider neutral. And then you have one,

consider neutral. And then you have one, two, three breakdown. I'm I'm just

two, three breakdown. I'm I'm just thinking through this live. Um, so same

thinking through this live. Um, so same thing here.

thing here. One, two, three. I guess just one there

One, two, three. I guess just one there and one and I guess a very large two.

and one and I guess a very large two. Yeah. So, I mean the uptrends persist a

Yeah. So, I mean the uptrends persist a little bit longer, but it seems like

little bit longer, but it seems like here's your neutral consolidation coming

here's your neutral consolidation coming out of a downtrend here, I'm assuming.

out of a downtrend here, I'm assuming. Yeah. Where you have your two can't

Yeah. Where you have your two can't mount a recovery, another two, can't

mount a recovery, another two, can't mount a recovery, another one, and into

mount a recovery, another one, and into the consolidation. Yeah, it seems seems

the consolidation. Yeah, it seems seems okay. it uh bounces a lot more in these

okay. it uh bounces a lot more in these uptrends. Um before the confluence model

uptrends. Um before the confluence model um

um yep I am on uh daily. What should I be

yep I am on uh daily. What should I be on for this? I uh never really look at

on for this? I uh never really look at these charts. Is 4hour better.

Felix, what what chart are you normally Oh, you said five minutes. I'm paying

Oh, you said five minutes. I'm paying attention. Sorry.

attention. Sorry. All right, let's let me just turn off

All right, let's let me just turn off the Where's the background color for the

the Where's the background color for the after hours

anyway? Okay, I'll ignore it for now. All right, five minute.

All right. And we'll bring up mean reversion and RSI.

reversion and RSI. Yeah. And I mean it seems like mean

Yeah. And I mean it seems like mean reversion RSI entry not really an exit.

reversion RSI entry not really an exit. I mean it's just tickling it there. I

I mean it's just tickling it there. I guess it's 70 getting another entry and

guess it's 70 getting another entry and then some exits up here.

So uh yeah I I mean I would back test it but that was a good entry and exit.

but that was a good entry and exit. Didn't quite get the entry signal there,

Didn't quite get the entry signal there, but you got one down here and then exits

but you got one down here and then exits up in this range. So, it seems to be

up in this range. So, it seems to be okay. Um, we could even look at the one

okay. Um, we could even look at the one minute if that's what you're trading.

Yeah, the one minute it's getting you a little a few of these. Well, I guess

little a few of these. Well, I guess that makes sense because this trend it's

that makes sense because this trend it's giving you the entries here. It's having

giving you the entries here. It's having you exit here. So you could just apply

you exit here. So you could just apply the same thing of the two or three

the same thing of the two or three swings, right? Maybe not get out of all

swings, right? Maybe not get out of all of it because you get a couple signals

of it because you get a couple signals on the way and then you get another

on the way and then you get another entry, another exit. So yeah, I think it

entry, another exit. So yeah, I think it uh just at a glance it seems like it

uh just at a glance it seems like it could give you an edge on the one or the

could give you an edge on the one or the five minute. Um or as kind of the

five minute. Um or as kind of the hybrid, I usually like the three minute.

hybrid, I usually like the three minute. Um so yeah, it doesn't at least with the

Um so yeah, it doesn't at least with the recent history, it doesn't seem bad at a

recent history, it doesn't seem bad at a glance.

glance. All right.

All right. Uh, any other questions or charts you

Uh, any other questions or charts you guys want to look at

guys want to look at or really anything else? We could uh

or really anything else? We could uh dive into

dive into a bit more of the TA um or look at other

a bit more of the TA um or look at other assets.

How do we keep things simple? There are so many signals. Yes. Um, so I know

so many signals. Yes. Um, so I know there are a lot of on these small time

there are a lot of on these small time frames especially, there are so many

frames especially, there are so many mean reversion dots. Um, and I I think I

mean reversion dots. Um, and I I think I still have this set to aggressive. So

still have this set to aggressive. So maybe let's

maybe let's do that first.

do that first. Yes.

Yes. All right. So, we'll go more neutral,

All right. So, we'll go more neutral, which well didn't take a ton of them

which well didn't take a ton of them off. But really, I think if you're

off. But really, I think if you're looking at three things, um, Naven, it's

looking at three things, um, Naven, it's are we above 70? Do I have a mean

are we above 70? Do I have a mean reversion dot? Great. Time to sell. And

reversion dot? Great. Time to sell. And are we a couple swings in to the upper

are we a couple swings in to the upper band? Uh, if you didn't act there, act

band? Uh, if you didn't act there, act in the center band. And then, are we

in the center band. And then, are we below 30? Are we getting a mean

below 30? Are we getting a mean reversion dot? Great. Uh, you know, are

reversion dot? Great. Uh, you know, are you down in the lower band? Uh, and just

you down in the lower band? Uh, and just paying attention to those kinds of

paying attention to those kinds of signals where here it's telling you to

signals where here it's telling you to exit, here it's telling you to enter

exit, here it's telling you to enter where the RSI and mean reversion are

where the RSI and mean reversion are coming together. I I know there's a lot

coming together. I I know there's a lot going on the chart and for some people

going on the chart and for some people who aren't um, you know, we all our

who aren't um, you know, we all our minds are wired differently. I'm a very

minds are wired differently. I'm a very visual person so I'm able to

visual person so I'm able to deal with all these signals but for

deal with all these signals but for other people you know it becomes a bit

other people you know it becomes a bit overwhelming. Um but I would say

overwhelming. Um but I would say practice and you'll learn to recognize

practice and you'll learn to recognize the patterns and look uh know what

the patterns and look uh know what things to look for. Um or you know what

things to look for. Um or you know what let me just add one more thing uh before

let me just add one more thing uh before I and I see the hype and Robert's saying

I and I see the hype and Robert's saying sarcastic RSI. Yes, thank you for the

sarcastic RSI. Yes, thank you for the reminder Robert. Um, one thing you can

reminder Robert. Um, one thing you can do just to keep things simple and let's

do just to keep things simple and let's go back to the

go back to the and I know I've been talking about,

and I know I've been talking about, you know, all this nuance and trying to

you know, all this nuance and trying to get really close uh to the trend flips

get really close uh to the trend flips and uh trade at the right moments. But

and uh trade at the right moments. But James has often mentioned that there are

James has often mentioned that there are a lot of people in the community that

a lot of people in the community that just trade off of the optimized trend

just trade off of the optimized trend model. And

model. And let me just go to the colors there. I

let me just go to the colors there. I normally have my transparency turned

normally have my transparency turned down on the optimized trend. Um, so I

down on the optimized trend. Um, so I can see the candles and the price

can see the candles and the price action. But honestly, you could ignore

action. But honestly, you could ignore all of this. And if you really wanted to

all of this. And if you really wanted to simplify things, you wouldn't want to do

simplify things, you wouldn't want to do this on small time frames because

this on small time frames because there'd be too many signals. But you

there'd be too many signals. But you could really just be very binary and

could really just be very binary and say, "Is the trend blue? I'm going long.

say, "Is the trend blue? I'm going long. Is the trend orange? I'm going short.

Is the trend orange? I'm going short. blue, I'm going long, orange, I'm going

blue, I'm going long, orange, I'm going short. Now, this was that period of

short. Now, this was that period of funky price action that I talked about,

funky price action that I talked about, which had a lot of flipping back and

which had a lot of flipping back and forth. Um, and you have some little

forth. Um, and you have some little deviations like this to worry about, uh,

deviations like this to worry about, uh, and this right here, but generally

and this right here, but generally speaking, um, yeah, I guess on the 4

speaking, um, yeah, I guess on the 4 hour there are some decent uh,

hour there are some decent uh, deviations, but it at least keeps you on

deviations, but it at least keeps you on the right side of the trade uh, using

the right side of the trade uh, using something like this. So, if you want to

something like this. So, if you want to simplify things, there's no harm in

simplify things, there's no harm in trading with the optimized trend, and a

trading with the optimized trend, and a lot of people do so very successfully.

All right. Uh, let's see. Hype and stochastic RSI. You know what? While I'm

stochastic RSI. You know what? While I'm here, I'll pull up hype in a second.

here, I'll pull up hype in a second. Let's just look at stoastic RSI. Uh, so

Let's just look at stoastic RSI. Uh, so that is,

and as the name would suggest, stochastic RSI is a bit random.

stochastic RSI is a bit random. um and it oscillates from the top of the

um and it oscillates from the top of the range to the bottom of the range. I

range to the bottom of the range. I don't really use it on the larger time

don't really use it on the larger time frames, but if I'm trying to get very

frames, but if I'm trying to get very close to an entry on the one minute

close to an entry on the one minute chart, I will often look at the

chart, I will often look at the stochastic RSI. So, um I have to change

stochastic RSI. So, um I have to change our settings again here to make sure we

our settings again here to make sure we are getting our signals. And where did I

are getting our signals. And where did I put normal RSI? All right. So, on the

put normal RSI? All right. So, on the one minute chart, we got our signal mean

one minute chart, we got our signal mean reversion dot. And this is an instance

reversion dot. And this is an instance where it would make sense to enter

where it would make sense to enter because the stochastic RSI is at the

because the stochastic RSI is at the bottom of the range and the blue is just

bottom of the range and the blue is just crossing above the orange, meaning there

crossing above the orange, meaning there should be more upward momentum.

should be more upward momentum. And then when it starts crossing down,

And then when it starts crossing down, those are all signs to be cautious. And

those are all signs to be cautious. And then finally here, it ultimately breaks

then finally here, it ultimately breaks down. So, it's not an exact signal, but

down. So, it's not an exact signal, but I want to try to find an instance where

I want to try to find an instance where it could help you fine-tune an entry a

it could help you fine-tune an entry a little bit just by being a bit patient.

little bit just by being a bit patient. Um, and the point where I find it's

Um, and the point where I find it's often really helpful on the one minute

often really helpful on the one minute is when you're getting into the

is when you're getting into the confluence model band here. So, see how

confluence model band here. So, see how we're testing it for resistance here and

we're testing it for resistance here and here. If this was happening and the

here. If this was happening and the stochastic RSI was coming up and was

stochastic RSI was coming up and was just in the middle of the range, you

just in the middle of the range, you would often break through. Uh, and a

would often break through. Uh, and a better example of that is, well, I guess

better example of that is, well, I guess this one was pretty close to the top of

this one was pretty close to the top of the range, too. Um, but I'm just always

the range, too. Um, but I'm just always a little cautious to chase a move if

a little cautious to chase a move if we're getting into a dynamic moving

we're getting into a dynamic moving average like that, and then I wait for

average like that, and then I wait for it to reset before trying to enter again

it to reset before trying to enter again um, on the small time frames. So, you

um, on the small time frames. So, you can also use this. Some people use it on

can also use this. Some people use it on the slightly larger time frames. I

the slightly larger time frames. I wouldn't go too high with it. But at a

wouldn't go too high with it. But at a point like right now where you're on

point like right now where you're on support

support and we're very neutral on the RSI,

and we're very neutral on the RSI, you're not really getting any signals.

you're not really getting any signals. You can use stochastic RSI as a guide to

You can use stochastic RSI as a guide to say, okay, it feels like we're about to

say, okay, it feels like we're about to cross over or you can wait for this to

cross over or you can wait for this to cross over and then on the 5minute you

cross over and then on the 5minute you would assume you have, you know, 20 to

would assume you have, you know, 20 to 30 minutes of positive momentum in the

30 minutes of positive momentum in the other direction. So, it could be helpful

other direction. So, it could be helpful in instances like this too where price

in instances like this too where price action is a little bit more muted and we

action is a little bit more muted and we should just be seeing this crossover,

should just be seeing this crossover, but we're not going to sit here for 10

but we're not going to sit here for 10 minutes uh to have two candles confirm,

minutes uh to have two candles confirm, but I can keep that on in the

but I can keep that on in the background. Um, okay, we want to look at

background. Um, okay, we want to look at hype. And then Thomas is asking, do you

hype. And then Thomas is asking, do you use optimized trend or trend model for

use optimized trend or trend model for the 4hour daily trends? Which is uh

the 4hour daily trends? Which is uh which one is better? I was using just

which one is better? I was using just the trend model. Um, now I've switched

the trend model. Um, now I've switched to the optimized trend just to see if

to the optimized trend just to see if it's confirming the thesis of the price

it's confirming the thesis of the price action. Uh, the trend model I found can

action. Uh, the trend model I found can be useful on the small time frames in a

be useful on the small time frames in a different way. Uh, in that when you're

different way. Uh, in that when you're in a small downtrend or an uptrend, oh,

in a small downtrend or an uptrend, oh, I made it too. Now we can't see the

I made it too. Now we can't see the candles at all. Let's find a happy

candles at all. Let's find a happy medium here. We'll go 75. Why not?

75. Great. All right. Um Gosh, you still can't see them enough.

And let's go 50/50. Okay. Um in a downtrend, often these

Okay. Um in a downtrend, often these wicks up, which maybe I need to make

wicks up, which maybe I need to make that a little bit bigger, but they often

that a little bit bigger, but they often find a little bit of resistance at the

find a little bit of resistance at the cloud or on the way up the cloud. These

cloud or on the way up the cloud. These aren't perfect examples, but sometimes

aren't perfect examples, but sometimes plays a bit of support. So, you can use

plays a bit of support. So, you can use the trend model for that. I really don't

the trend model for that. I really don't use either one of them too much in my

use either one of them too much in my trading, but I've been I was on the

trading, but I've been I was on the trend model more. Now, I'm back on the

trend model more. Now, I'm back on the optimized trend. You don't have to use

optimized trend. You don't have to use them. Um, but um yeah, it's more just of

them. Um, but um yeah, it's more just of an option. Okay. uh hype,

an option. Okay. uh hype, which if um Aster is bleeding out,

which if um Aster is bleeding out, then hype should be doing better

then hype should be doing better presumably. Let's see. And we got to

presumably. Let's see. And we got to look at it on the larger time frames.

look at it on the larger time frames. This Oh, that had a big pretty big drop

This Oh, that had a big pretty big drop as well. But

as well. But let's see how we're looking here. What

let's see how we're looking here. What did we drop down to? 21 cents. Um, we're

did we drop down to? 21 cents. Um, we're finding some support right now at the

finding some support right now at the 200 day moving average, which just

200 day moving average, which just formed. We obviously rejected from this

formed. We obviously rejected from this trend line after the breakdown. We broke

trend line after the breakdown. We broke down from this one. Um,

down from this one. Um, yeah, we can just scroll through the

yeah, we can just scroll through the time frames. A lot of these just look so

time frames. A lot of these just look so weak. I guess that's above the 200 day

weak. I guess that's above the 200 day moving average is a decent sign. The RSI

moving average is a decent sign. The RSI is almost bottomed out. We had a recent

is almost bottomed out. We had a recent mean reversion dot right there. So,

mean reversion dot right there. So, where are we on the 4 hour?

where are we on the 4 hour? We are almost oversold on the 4 hour.

We are almost oversold on the 4 hour. We're drifting down a little bit,

trying to recover on the 1 hour. It's still looking like a lot of the other

still looking like a lot of the other ones right now. It's unfortunately most

ones right now. It's unfortunately most of these aren't giving a clear signal on

of these aren't giving a clear signal on what to do, but they're

what to do, but they're in this same tightening range. This one

in this same tightening range. This one has had actually a little bit more

has had actually a little bit more volatility than some of the other names

volatility than some of the other names we looked at. Uh on the 15-minute you

we looked at. Uh on the 15-minute you are getting one decent sign on this

are getting one decent sign on this broken to the 15-minute and you're

broken to the 15-minute and you're finding support. Um so if the rest of

finding support. Um so if the rest of the market gets a little bit of a bounce

the market gets a little bit of a bounce on right now as we've which could be

on right now as we've which could be with that volatility we've seen loading

with that volatility we've seen loading this could be a decent entry if you're

this could be a decent entry if you're not in it to at least play a little bit

not in it to at least play a little bit of the bounce. Uh and then if we break

of the bounce. Uh and then if we break down from that confluence model center

down from that confluence model center cloud in that range, you would know to

cloud in that range, you would know to get out of it. The stochastic RSI is

get out of it. The stochastic RSI is starting to point down a little bit, but

starting to point down a little bit, but this can chop around, you know, at the

this can chop around, you know, at the top of the range for a little while. And

top of the range for a little while. And the fivem minute already went into a

the fivem minute already went into a secondary downtrend

secondary downtrend and is testing resistance right now. So,

and is testing resistance right now. So, if this can break through, yeah, um I

if this can break through, yeah, um I wish there was a more clear road map for

wish there was a more clear road map for a lot of these. I'm personally just

a lot of these. I'm personally just sitting today out to let the dust dust

sitting today out to let the dust dust settle and then if we start seeing some

settle and then if we start seeing some more positive signs leading into the

more positive signs leading into the weekly close tomorrow, um then I'll

weekly close tomorrow, um then I'll consider trading a little bit more. Uh

consider trading a little bit more. Uh do you use optimized trend? Okay, we

do you use optimized trend? Okay, we already covered that one.

already covered that one. Uh trend and optimize trend. So, Lewis

Uh trend and optimize trend. So, Lewis is asking the difference. So the trend

is asking the difference. So the trend tends to hug the price action a bit more

tends to hug the price action a bit more closely like that. And the optimized

closely like that. And the optimized trend is not as close to the price

trend is not as close to the price action. We're on the 3minut. We should

action. We're on the 3minut. We should really go to the daily to see this. And

really go to the daily to see this. And oh actually

oh actually well optimized trend on hype hugs the

well optimized trend on hype hugs the price action quite closely. Uh oh do I

price action quite closely. Uh oh do I have both of them on? No.

interesting. Uh it doesn't do this for all assets. Normally, it's pulled away

all assets. Normally, it's pulled away from the price action a little bit more,

from the price action a little bit more, but it really nails the trend flip um a

but it really nails the trend flip um a bit more precisely, I would say, on the

bit more precisely, I would say, on the optimized uh trend model. See if we can

optimized uh trend model. See if we can find

find a different asset.

a different asset. There we go. That That's how I'm used to

There we go. That That's how I'm used to seeing it. See how it is pulled away

seeing it. See how it is pulled away from the price action a little bit? Um

from the price action a little bit? Um but it tends to nail those trend flips.

but it tends to nail those trend flips. And then if we have it off and we bring

And then if we have it off and we bring on the normal trend model, see normal

on the normal trend model, see normal trend model hugs the price action and

trend model hugs the price action and then optimized trend is pulled away a

then optimized trend is pulled away a little bit. Um but really it's once the

little bit. Um but really it's once the optimized trend flips, it's a bit more

optimized trend flips, it's a bit more certain. Okay. Uh I was unable to buy

certain. Okay. Uh I was unable to buy more when it dropped yesterday. Yes. Uh

more when it dropped yesterday. Yes. Uh Forever Noob, that was a tough one. I

Forever Noob, that was a tough one. I know a couple people who had they call

know a couple people who had they call them stink orders where it's just like

them stink orders where it's just like you set these bids uh at very low prices

you set these bids uh at very low prices and sometimes you get lucky and they

and sometimes you get lucky and they fill on liquidation flushes like this.

fill on liquidation flushes like this. Um but in the middle of it while it's

Um but in the middle of it while it's happening especially if things wick down

happening especially if things wick down just for a fraction of a second you you

just for a fraction of a second you you won't always get those fills. So

won't always get those fills. So I'm yeah as far as uh just the general

I'm yeah as far as uh just the general strategy how to read mean reversion and

strategy how to read mean reversion and RSI and use the clouds um you know for

RSI and use the clouds um you know for perpet trading and really you can do

perpet trading and really you can do this on any time frame and most any

this on any time frame and most any asset. Um you can see Tesla right here

asset. Um you can see Tesla right here on the daily is taking the first swing

on the daily is taking the first swing in the upper band. If we pull back more

in the upper band. If we pull back more we have to assume at around 395 we might

we have to assume at around 395 we might get a bounce and continue a little

get a bounce and continue a little higher but time will tell. uh if it

higher but time will tell. uh if it breaks right back down, you know, that's

breaks right back down, you know, that's a sign of weakness. But even an asset

a sign of weakness. But even an asset like Tesla is following this same

like Tesla is following this same general rhythm of couple swings in the

general rhythm of couple swings in the upper cloud, break back in, couple

upper cloud, break back in, couple swings in the lower cloud, neutral

swings in the lower cloud, neutral consolidation for months, playing out

consolidation for months, playing out over a long time, and now we're just

over a long time, and now we're just getting into the upper band again. So

getting into the upper band again. So the question is, is this going to

the question is, is this going to continue for two maybe three swings?

continue for two maybe three swings? Time will tell. And if we break back

Time will tell. And if we break back down, then that's telling us that

down, then that's telling us that there's near-term weakness in the charts

there's near-term weakness in the charts and we just have to expect some more

and we just have to expect some more consolidation.

consolidation. All right, let me look at my notes just

All right, let me look at my notes just to make sure we didn't miss anything.

to make sure we didn't miss anything. Mean reversion, stoastic RSI. Oh, um I

Mean reversion, stoastic RSI. Oh, um I have one note at the end uh to let the

have one note at the end uh to let the trade come to you. So, uh, what I mean

trade come to you. So, uh, what I mean by that is, you know, in the mornings

by that is, you know, in the mornings when I look at the charts and I swim

when I look at the charts and I swim upstream through the, uh, time frames,

upstream through the, uh, time frames, if it's not a good setup or it's in the

if it's not a good setup or it's in the middle of correcting, I won't trade.

middle of correcting, I won't trade. I'll just wait for the setup to get

I'll just wait for the setup to get better, that trade to come to me. Um,

better, that trade to come to me. Um, and that also connects in the next thing

and that also connects in the next thing of not overtrading and just trying to be

of not overtrading and just trying to be a little bit more selective with your

a little bit more selective with your setups, I think, will help you over the

setups, I think, will help you over the long time horizon. don't always have to

long time horizon. don't always have to be in a trade. So, know when to sit out

be in a trade. So, know when to sit out a session uh and identify those right

a session uh and identify those right times uh to be in the market.

times uh to be in the market. All right, that is all I've got. Any

All right, that is all I've got. Any other questions before we call it a day?

No. All right. Well, if there aren't any

All right. Well, if there aren't any other questions

other questions Oh, what's my setup checklist? Oh, it

Oh, what's my setup checklist? Oh, it depends. Now the questions are coming.

depends. Now the questions are coming. Um, so setup checklist is,

Um, so setup checklist is, you know, right now we have the 4hour

you know, right now we have the 4hour reset and if we can get a bounce on

reset and if we can get a bounce on that's telling me that presumably we

that's telling me that presumably we should be in a general uptrend for the

should be in a general uptrend for the next couple of weeks. So I am first in

next couple of weeks. So I am first in that um, you know, 4hour trade and then

that um, you know, 4hour trade and then if I get out of it then I'm looking you

if I get out of it then I'm looking you know for the 4hour RSI to reset or at

know for the 4hour RSI to reset or at least the 1 hour. Um, but I I guess

least the 1 hour. Um, but I I guess really it's whatever time frame I'm

really it's whatever time frame I'm trading, you know, be aware of the

trading, you know, be aware of the larger time frames and what the bigger

larger time frames and what the bigger trends doing. And then are we in the

trends doing. And then are we in the lower band? Do we have RSI

lower band? Do we have RSI uh deviated below 30? Are we getting

uh deviated below 30? Are we getting those mean reversion dots? Uh those are

those mean reversion dots? Uh those are all the things that are the main

all the things that are the main checklist. And you can either enter then

checklist. And you can either enter then or you can wait for the trend to turn

or you can wait for the trend to turn meaning are we starting to build

meaning are we starting to build positive structure? Are we breaking into

positive structure? Are we breaking into the center cloud getting higher highs,

the center cloud getting higher highs, higher lows? Um, all of that is helpful.

higher lows? Um, all of that is helpful. Uh, do you ever set stop losses by

Uh, do you ever set stop losses by percent? Uh, Michael, no, I don't go by

percent? Uh, Michael, no, I don't go by percent too much. I will look at recent

percent too much. I will look at recent price action, which is hard to do right

price action, which is hard to do right now with the big drop we had yesterday.

now with the big drop we had yesterday. But let's go back to Saul.

And during this uptrend was a period where I was trading

where I was trading where we can just

see the the percentage moves. Um, and so if say on a on a small time frame, you

if say on a on a small time frame, you would have had a 15-minute entry here.

would have had a 15-minute entry here. And maybe it makes more sense to look on

And maybe it makes more sense to look on the 15 for these little choppy swings.

the 15 for these little choppy swings. Um, where you have mean reversion dots,

Um, where you have mean reversion dots, you're just touching 30 on this swing

you're just touching 30 on this swing here and you're bouncing. So for

here and you're bouncing. So for something like this, in terms of a

something like this, in terms of a stop-loss, you would set your stop loss,

stop-loss, you would set your stop loss, you know, below this recent price

you know, below this recent price action, below your entry. me use the

action, below your entry. me use the marker tool. Um, and then as price

marker tool. Um, and then as price action moves away, ideally you are

action moves away, ideally you are moving your stop loss above that. But

moving your stop loss above that. But say this was forming more of a flag

say this was forming more of a flag pattern and you wanted to give yourself

pattern and you wanted to give yourself a little bit more room to run. I usually

a little bit more room to run. I usually just look to the left of the chart and

just look to the left of the chart and it's like, okay, we have structural

it's like, okay, we have structural support right here and right here. So

support right here and right here. So going below one of these levels at 225,

going below one of these levels at 225, yeah, 225 and then below here 223 would

yeah, 225 and then below here 223 would be really safe. Um, and you know that if

be really safe. Um, and you know that if you're breaking down below that, then

you're breaking down below that, then we're starting to enter a downtrend

we're starting to enter a downtrend because you're making lower lows. So, I

because you're making lower lows. So, I usually just look to the left of the

usually just look to the left of the chart to try to identify um key levels

chart to try to identify um key levels to base the stop losses off of.

to base the stop losses off of. All right.

All right. Uh, do you use AI when trading? Uh, no.

Uh, do you use AI when trading? Uh, no. Um, I don't. Uh I know there are some

Um, I don't. Uh I know there are some things being integrated but um if you

things being integrated but um if you want to speak up on the mic um you can

want to speak up on the mic um you can let us know uh what kind of AI you are

let us know uh what kind of AI you are integrating. Um and I know some people

integrating. Um and I know some people use liquidation levels a lot. I don't

use liquidation levels a lot. I don't check them too much. Um sometimes on the

check them too much. Um sometimes on the one minute I'll you know keep an eye on

one minute I'll you know keep an eye on them just to see where that liquidity is

them just to see where that liquidity is sitting to see where the motivations lie

sitting to see where the motivations lie in the market to drive the price up or

in the market to drive the price up or down.

down. >> Yeah. I mean like I'm pretty new to this

>> Yeah. I mean like I'm pretty new to this so like I'm just asking the AI like how

so like I'm just asking the AI like how are things looking right now? Um is it

are things looking right now? Um is it like a good time to enter stuff like

like a good time to enter stuff like that? Just like confirmations.

that? Just like confirmations. >> Yeah. Um

>> Yeah. Um h how do you mean like enter Saul

h how do you mean like enter Saul specifically or just is it still safe to

specifically or just is it still safe to trade or are we going to get disrupted

trade or are we going to get disrupted by AI bots trading that kind of thing or

by AI bots trading that kind of thing or do you mean something else?

do you mean something else? >> Um more like is now like a good price to

>> Um more like is now like a good price to enter. Are we like overbought and stuff

enter. Are we like overbought and stuff like that or is it like oversold?

like that or is it like oversold? >> Yeah, Chacht.

>> Yeah, Chacht. >> Yeah, in in the in the crypto world, um,

>> Yeah, in in the in the crypto world, um, you know, I would say that was

you know, I would say that was definitely a meaningful flush. I would

definitely a meaningful flush. I would personally let the dust settle a little

personally let the dust settle a little bit because of how violent an event it

bit because of how violent an event it was. Um but a lot of altcoins are at

was. Um but a lot of altcoins are at prices that we haven't seen for months

prices that we haven't seen for months or years on some of them uh based off

or years on some of them uh based off the drop yesterday. For equities um you

the drop yesterday. For equities um you know those could come down a little bit

know those could come down a little bit more um in this correction and we could

more um in this correction and we could see another two to three weeks of

see another two to three weeks of bumpiness ahead for equities. I I think

bumpiness ahead for equities. I I think the speed of the recovery next week is

the speed of the recovery next week is really going to tell us a lot. And for

really going to tell us a lot. And for crypto, I would feel much more confident

crypto, I would feel much more confident for the near-term if Bitcoin can close

for the near-term if Bitcoin can close the weekly candle above um 114.7,000

or 114,700, which is the 50% of the high to the drop

which is the 50% of the high to the drop yesterday. Just to put it in the

yesterday. Just to put it in the stronger half of the range and point

stronger half of the range and point towards um quicker near-term recovery.

towards um quicker near-term recovery. All right. Um, Lewis is asking, "Can I

All right. Um, Lewis is asking, "Can I go over using the three confluence

go over using the three confluence models together and why?" Um, yeah,

models together and why?" Um, yeah, Lewis, what specifically? Because I feel

Lewis, what specifically? Because I feel like we've been talking about the double

like we've been talking about the double cloud a fair bit. Um,

but maybe you can expand on that a little bit.

little bit. So, we have the bullish and the bearish

So, we have the bullish and the bearish instance of the confluence model. So

instance of the confluence model. So there's the bullish cloud, the bearish

there's the bullish cloud, the bearish instance. And so that just gives us

instance. And so that just gives us these multiple sets of dynamic moving

these multiple sets of dynamic moving averages. And we see the price action

averages. And we see the price action playing out that narrative between the

playing out that narrative between the three. And then the third one is just

three. And then the third one is just for the buy and sell signals, which I

for the buy and sell signals, which I personally don't pay too much attention

personally don't pay too much attention to because there are lots of entries and

to because there are lots of entries and exits outside of those, but it's icing

exits outside of those, but it's icing on the cake whenever you get those just

on the cake whenever you get those just to confirm uh the thesis. But let me

to confirm uh the thesis. But let me know if you had another question there,

know if you had another question there, Lewis.

Okay, Thomas Thomas has to drop off. Happy trading to you as well, Thomas.

Happy trading to you as well, Thomas. All right, well, if there are no other

All right, well, if there are no other questions, we're um at 90 minutes. I'm

questions, we're um at 90 minutes. I'm happy to stick around if there is

happy to stick around if there is another one. Uh but if not, I wish you

another one. Uh but if not, I wish you all a great weekend.

all a great weekend. >> Can I ask one more question?

>> Can I ask one more question? >> Yeah, of course.

>> Yeah, of course. >> Yeah. So, I'm just wondering like like

>> Yeah. So, I'm just wondering like like who would you recommend prep trading to

who would you recommend prep trading to and like who would you like not

and like who would you like not recommend it to or just like stick to

recommend it to or just like stick to stocks and options? At least for me,

stocks and options? At least for me, I've had like a lot more success with

I've had like a lot more success with like

like >> options. It seems a bit more like going

>> options. It seems a bit more like going with the trend and more predictable.

with the trend and more predictable. >> Yeah. And and it generally is because

>> Yeah. And and it generally is because the um equity market is less volatile

the um equity market is less volatile and with options you give yourself a

and with options you give yourself a little bit more time. Perp trading is I

little bit more time. Perp trading is I would say the riskiest kind of trading

would say the riskiest kind of trading you can do. I would say it's like buying

you can do. I would say it's like buying and selling spot or shares. Uh pair

and selling spot or shares. Uh pair trading then simple calls or puts. Um

trading then simple calls or puts. Um did I say pair trading already? Yeah,

did I say pair trading already? Yeah, pair trading. Simple calls or puts. More

pair trading. Simple calls or puts. More advanced options like beyond that, you

advanced options like beyond that, you know, uh straddles, three-legged stools.

know, uh straddles, three-legged stools. Um and then there's a wide chasm before

Um and then there's a wide chasm before we get to trading. It's, you know, not a

we get to trading. It's, you know, not a bad skill to learn because there are

bad skill to learn because there are times in the market where, uh, it can be

times in the market where, uh, it can be beneficial to say hedge your crypto

beneficial to say hedge your crypto position or something like that. Um, but

position or something like that. Um, but it's not something you have to do. Um,

it's not something you have to do. Um, and if you just want to practice, you

and if you just want to practice, you know, with small amounts, um, you can do

know, with small amounts, um, you can do that. But I I agree. I have some of my

that. But I I agree. I have some of my best returns off of swing trading with

best returns off of swing trading with options. Um

options. Um and perp trading is just you know uh

and perp trading is just you know uh something to do for sport on the side uh

something to do for sport on the side uh to generate cash flow. But one thing

to generate cash flow. But one thing since you are newer that I would

since you are newer that I would recommend doing uh and I still try to do

recommend doing uh and I still try to do once a week is uh I just use the replay

once a week is uh I just use the replay tool on whatever time frame I'm trading.

tool on whatever time frame I'm trading. And uh you click here

And uh you click here and you go back in time on the chart

and let's bring up the price action. And then you can just hit play quickly and

then you can just hit play quickly and you can say, okay, what should I be

you can say, okay, what should I be doing in this instance? And we pulled it

doing in this instance? And we pulled it back to a point where it seems like

back to a point where it seems like we're into a resistance point uh and we

we're into a resistance point uh and we should probably be selling or be close

should probably be selling or be close to selling. uh you know and so you can

to selling. uh you know and so you can just paper trade here and put in your

just paper trade here and put in your buys and sells uh and hit play and then

buys and sells uh and hit play and then this will go forward through time and

this will go forward through time and we'll give you a sense of okay maybe I

we'll give you a sense of okay maybe I should be selling again and we're

should be selling again and we're dropping down and figure out when to

dropping down and figure out when to buy. It's like okay do I get into a

buy. It's like okay do I get into a trade here? Is that a good entry or are

trade here? Is that a good entry or are we going to take another swing? Maybe we

we going to take another swing? Maybe we wait. Okay, second swing. Time to buy.

wait. Okay, second swing. Time to buy. buy again.

buy again. And then let's see what we do. And we

And then let's see what we do. And we Oh, we rejected. I was a little too slow

Oh, we rejected. I was a little too slow there. Should have sold right there

there. Should have sold right there because we rejected and we got both our

because we rejected and we got both our signals. Whenever you reject from the

signals. Whenever you reject from the cloud, so missed that sell, but that

cloud, so missed that sell, but that should have been a sell. Um, and you can

should have been a sell. Um, and you can slow this down. And then now we drop

slow this down. And then now we drop lower and we're going to get another

lower and we're going to get another buy. And now I'm cheating because I have

buy. And now I'm cheating because I have our trend line in. Um, but you know,

our trend line in. Um, but you know, maybe go back a year or so. So, you're

maybe go back a year or so. So, you're not familiar with the price action, but

not familiar with the price action, but I'm a big advocate and fan of using the

I'm a big advocate and fan of using the replay tool. And then you can just

replay tool. And then you can just practice to say, am I winning at least

practice to say, am I winning at least 60% of the time? Ideally, 70 to 80% of

60% of the time? Ideally, 70 to 80% of the time.

the time. Okay. You're welcome. Cool. All right.

Okay. You're welcome. Cool. All right. Well, have a lovely weekend everybody.

Well, have a lovely weekend everybody. It was good seeing you all there uh all

It was good seeing you all there uh all here. And uh couple familiar faces from

here. And uh couple familiar faces from Patreon, too. Thank you guys uh for the

Patreon, too. Thank you guys uh for the support over there. I really appreciate

support over there. I really appreciate it.

it. All right. Bye everybody.

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YouTube Transcript:Perp Trading Class - Oct 11, 2025