This content explains how to strategically trade the "first green day" phenomenon in stocks, particularly focusing on identifying tradable patterns and understanding the risk-reward dynamics involved, with a specific emphasis on biotech and IPO stocks.
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hello guys team Ducks here welcome to
this video So today we're going to talk
about how to really trade the first
Green Day especially on the recent runners
[Music]
I'm gonna cover the first Green Day on
biotech lkyl and hpx and some of the
patterns has performed exactly the same
especially for non-crowded Traders on
intraday on their first day on the round
other than that pretty much majority of
the first screen they are not tradable
so in this video I'm going to show you
some of the patterns that can be
recognized we also have a new course
that just came out I will link in the
bio and let's get into the video alright
so first one let's go over the most
recent one we had hpx this is an IPO
play we haven't had one of those tickers
for a very long time my first green day
typically what we're dealing with in the
last two months was pretty much all
biotechs right now we do have something
that's not biotechs and stock went from
9 to 15 on really thin volume so I was
tracking a couple levels on the stickers
there's one level starting from the
bottom around 9 to 50 this is
first thing I want to track is how much
did it pull from the first parabolic
typically if you pulled way too much
there's a high chance that the bat
holder wants to get out into the second
bounce this sticker looks very similar
to the ticker that happened recently
which is okyo another one but this is a
biotech sector one thing I want to
emphasize is biotech sector has
completely different I would say fading
percentages the data is completely
different only bound Shore can work on
biotech sectors sometimes even though
I'm sure don't even work that well
because of the weird statistics typical
fading percentage for balancer is 50
typical 13 percentage for uh for biotech
sometimes can be as low as 30 percent so
let's go to February 17th over here we
had another one of the parabolic spike
very similar as hpx trading much more
volume so I did up to more than 50 from
the top on the entire game range is
around 2.47 so in the middle this is the
50 mark I hear it's almost a 70 Mark and
once they faded that much typically the
chart can trap enough people who bought
around seven and under desperate to get
out into your bounce if you think about
the psychology of first green day
typically you don't really have any
resistance that's number one number two
you're pretty much traded based on chart
reactions and also on the level two and
based on different flow and market caps
the spiking percentage on the first
parabolic typically has all kinds of
variations for a billion dollar cap it
can only spec up to 30 for lower cap can
spec up to hundreds of percent and also
depends on the flow so typically for
beginners I do not recommend trying to
top tick on the first parabolic wait
until the stock pulls back and depends
on how far it pulls back you can kind of
make your plan while the stock is
spiking and calculate the pullback
percentages to make sure that your
shorting strategy have a good running
percentage this one came all the way
back testing the 6.1 so which is 15 of
the high when you're sizing around 15
you're taking I'll say a decent risk so
typically when you are shorting around
first during day your risk reward will
not be that great your risky War most of
the time is around one to one so in this
thing okay well typically first Green
Day do not fade all the way back down to
the neutralized area where it spiked so
90 of the time you earn 75 25 sorry
above the neutralized area so if you
look at the neutralized area which you
are starting to count in where the
bottom came in so three times 25 so
that's around four dollar area so the
stock should end around four by Port all
the way back to 3.2 the failing
percentage cannot be tracked into the
average 50 percentage for the first
Green Day same thing goes to hpx let's
do some math around here we had a star
expecting prices around nine into all
the way to 50. the first parabolic Spike
pulled back to 22 so the median range around
around
9.94 to 36 so I'm using 36 minus 9
divided by two that's the 50 Mark you
landed right around 50 Mark respect the
game whenever you are looking at first
Green Day and the stock didn't hold only
post fifty percent so the bad holders
still have hope that the stock will
Spike and they're not likely to sell but
if if it pulls more and then 50 the
stock on the stock is likely to fail on
the bounce so this is one of the small
details uh on the statistics you should
track stock rebricks again to the 36 and
when you did it once you tell a fake
calories found there but hpx is a
different I would say it's considered to
be an IPO main name is because the
volume is way too low it only trade
around the 1.4 million shares throughout
the day so it's not a great as examples
to show
14 percentages will affect into the
second bounce but if you want to compare
okay well to rtda rkda into pretty much
the same thing very similar chart is to
impose more than 50 at the 65 percent
and this one failure all the way back
compared to pretty much the same as okay
like I'll fit it to the neutralized area
maximum fading point should be around
12. 20 to 25 above the neutralized area
so for okay by o should be 3.6 25 should
be four
rkda should be between 11 to 12 dollar
area especially on the selling pressure
on the first Green Day if it tends to
lose its momentum the stock is likely to
fade all the way back down uh I've been
changing the statistics about with that
one as I mentioned on the first screen
the shooting strategies your risk award
typically is not number eight risk
reward ratio is around one to one but if
you look around into the second green
second red day this one winter 34. do
already hit hit the bottom of the
consolidations hpx going all the way
back down to 14 and this if you look at
the uh the overall picture over a
picture for how much stock has scanned
and where is the 75 Mark for multi-tier
runners and this one faded you know only
about 75 markets around here around 22
went all the way down to 17 now the list
is 14 so it's you only landed about five
percent compared to the entire range
that was gained yesterday surely into
the following day on the red day it does
have much better reward compared to the
shorting to the first Green Day so those
are the main statistics that you want to
track for her screen day I do think is
really helpful try not to participate in
the first parabolic Spike always wait
onto the second pull to see how much you
actually pulled if it produces a bounce
after it pulled more than 50 percent
it's worth a try and a balance if it was
less than 50 don't even worry about it
so for politics specifically you have to
be more careful other than that that'll
be a first recap alright guys at the end
of this video thank you very much for
watching uh make sure to check the
course linking below I will see you guys
in the next time foreign
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