New Year's resolutions often fail because they contradict the science of sustained behavioral change; success hinges on preparation, self-efficacy, and strategic goal-setting rather than spontaneous desire or external accountability.
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Alrighty, chat. It's that time of year
where maybe you've failed at your New
Year's resolution. So, when the new year
rolls around, everyone makes
resolutions. And if you look at the
science of behavioral change, we run
into something really, really scary,
which is that the way that we make New
Year's resolutions actually runs
contrary to what the science shows us
works for sustained behavioral change.
It's almost like New Year's resolutions
tend to shoot us in the foot. So to
begin with, let's start with a couple of
basic statistics. 77% of people stick
with a New Year's resolution for about 1
week. Okay? So 23% of people don't even
last a week. About 50% of people fail at
the 1 month mark. And only about 20% of
people make it after 1 year or about 2
years. Which means that 80% of people
ultimately fail in their New Year's
resolution. What do we know about the
people who succeed? It turns out that
the way that we make New Year's
resolutions may actually sabotage us
from succeeding in the first place. So,
here's the first big mistake that people
make. They decide to do it with a
friend. So, this is the way that this
kind of thinking goes. Hey, I have
trouble sticking with things. You know
what would be great is if I rope in one
of my friends and we decide to do it
together. I'm gonna find an
accountability partner. So, here's the
subtle psychology that makes that really
hard. Why do you find an accountability
partner? Because you can't do it
yourself. And if I'm finding an
accountability partner to keep me
accountable mentally, where is my
responsibility for my own
accountability? I'm outsourcing my
accountability to a friend. And what we
actually see in New Year's resolutions,
it's kind of like this. This is the
analogy that I sort of like. Imagine I
have two bales of hay that are leaning
against each other, right? So if I take
two pieces of wood or two bales of hay
and I lean them against each other, they
both stand as long as they're both
standing. The problem is that if a
single one falls, then the other one
falls too. And what we see very
practically, and I see this all the time
in addiction psychiatry with sobriety
packs, is like me and my girlfriend, we
both use opiates and we're both going to
get sober together. That sounds great
and sometimes it works, right? Maybe 19%
of the time with New Year's resolutions,
but the real problem is that if one
person fails, the other person fails
with them. Not only are you outsourcing
your accountability, you are opening
yourself up to be dragged down by your
accountability partner. So the research
actually shows that working with someone
having a partner doesn't show any
benefit until after 6 months. And this
is sort of an interesting kind of
statistic that we can kind of tunnel
down more into. The way that I
understand it is that if the two of you
don't screw up for 6 months, then the
two of you can support each other after
that. But the first six months is
actually where we see the largest drop
off in sticking with New Year's
resolutions to begin with. Just because
having an accountability partner doesn't
work doesn't mean that support isn't
useful. Here's a really interesting
study that compared three groups of
people. One group that has no support,
one group that has limited support, and
one group that has extensive support.
The really crazy thing is that the group
with no support and the group with a ton
of support actually have the same
failure rates. The best group is the one
with moderate support. Now, why does
this happen? I think it once again comes
down to the psychology of
accountability. When you have someone
who's working with you, supporting you
for 12 months, you start to become
dependent on that person and it ends up
the the the benefit of that extended
support essentially washes out, right?
So, at what point do you go from getting
supported to becoming dependent? There's
another really great study that sort of
tunnels down into this point because I
think the point of support is a little
bit complicated. There's another study
that really tunnels down into the best
way to provide support. Okay. So, when
you have people who are non-resolvers,
these are people who have failed to
follow their New Year's resolution, it
turns out that periodic telephone calls
may facilitate people from progressing
from thinking about doing something to
actually doing something about it. And
here's what's really fascinating. This
study found that 54%
of their initial pool of non-resolvers
move from contemplation to action within
4 weeks. Right? Right? So within 1 month
54% of people who are not resolved to do
anything moved to actually doing
something within 4 weeks with simply
three telephone calls. When I designed
our coaching program, it was precisely
along these guidelines. It was looking
at the research and understanding that
people don't need help for 12 months. In
fact, helping you for 12 months making
you dependent on your coach isn't
actually helpful. It can become harmful.
Instead, a time-limited weekly
intervention that supports your forward
momentum, but doesn't make you dependent
is what actually leads to the highest
amount of behavioral change. Second big
thing that people with New Year's
resolutions miss. Failure is on the path
to success. So, one study found that for
people who stuck with something for 2
years, they failed an average of 14
times. So, one of the biggest mistakes
that we see in people who make New
Year's resolutions is not that they
screw up, it's that they throw in the
towel when they screw up. So, if you
were trying to make a behavioral change,
give yourself 14 chances before giving
up. That's what the data actually shows.
Now, there's a subtle bit of psychology
there where if you sort of tell
yourself, "Oh my god, like if I have
patients who are addicted to heroin and
they're like, oh, Dr. Okay, are you
telling me that I can relapse 14 times?
Like, oh, I've got 14 misses. Okay, well
then I've got 14 options. Let me go on a
bender this weekend. I'll get my
together next week. And then, oh, I've
got 13 left. Let me go on a bender again
this week. Right. Oh, and oh, Dr. K, by
the way, you said I can screw up 14
times, right? So, if I'm going on a
bender for one weekend, what's the
difference between one weekend and one
week? Right? It still counts as one. So
you have to be a little bit careful
about the way that your mind will take
this information and sort of say, "Okay,
that means I get to screw up." That's
not what I'm intending to tell you. What
the data actually shows is that the
process of behavioral change is fraught
with missteps. That it's the people who
stick with it over time. Those are the
people that really succeed. So don't
give up. And even if you screw up once,
twice, three times, four times, five
times, six times, seven times, eight
times, nine times, 10 times, stick with
it. That's the point of sharing this bit
of data. So now we come to the mediest
part of the research, which is what is
the difference between the 19% of people
who stick with it and the 81% of people
who don't stick with it. So the first is
that people who stick with it prepare to
make a change. They don't spontaneously
make a change. So, [clears throat] it's
not like you wake up on December 31st
and you're like, "Oh tomorrow is
New Year's. Time to make a resolution."
The people who make a change, think
about it ahead of time. And this is the
key thing. They are ready to make a
change. So, there's another bit of data
here which is really interesting. The
desire to make a change has no bearing
on your success to make a change. So,
wanting something, this is insane, I
know, but wanting a New Year's
resolution really bad or wanting to do
something, I really, really want to get
in shape actually does not affect your
chances of success. The question is, are
you ready to get into shape? So, the way
that this looks in addiction psychiatry
is we'll often times designate a quit
date. We're not quitting today. Some
people will go turkey. Addiction science
gets a little bit more complicated
because there's different stuff going on
in the brain. But generally speaking,
setting up a time ahead of time,
designating a quit date correlates with
success with sobriety. So what you
really need to do is think about it
ahead of time and then really ask
yourself, am I ready to pay the price to
make this change? People who focus on
that are more likely to succeed. Second
thing that is really, really, really
important is a belief in self-efficacy.
So once again, it's not how much you
want something. It is your belief and
whether you are capable of achieving it.
This is critical for success in
behavioral change. So this is where
things get a little bit tricky because
often times in New Year's resolutions,
we want to make changes that we want a
lot, but we actually don't have the
faith in ourselves to achieve. So I want
to get a six-pack by the summer. Turns
out that this is actually sabotaging
you. So take a step back from what you
want. Now the way that we want to do
this successfully is by using something
called a smart goal. This is a really
really simple framework, arguably
evidence-based, but it's not super
evidence-based, but I find it to be
really helpful. So a smart goal should
be specific, it should be measurable, it
should be attainable, it should be
relevant, and it should be time bound.
So let's go through this and show you
all examples of what works and what
doesn't work. I want to get in shape.
that is neither specific nor measurable,
right? Instead, what we want to do is
focus on things that we can actually
measure. I want to go to the gym three
times a week for 1 month. I want to go
to the gym three times a week for 2
months. I want to stop eating after 10
p.m. Right? So, these are things that
are specific that you can actually
measure. It becomes very clear whether
you are achieving it or not achieving
it. And then we get to attainable, which
leans into self-efficacy. So, in order
for you to access self-efficacy, it has
to be something that you believe you can
do. So, does three times a week sound
like you can really do that? Instead,
what can be far more successful is for
you to scale back your goal to let me go
to the gym once a week, right? Focus on
things that you can actually succeed in.
And the reason for that is that this is
where we get to some more interesting
psychology. When we look at people who
fail at their goals, often times they
fall short. They experience a lot of
negative emotions. They start to be
overly self-reflective. So, this is
what's really interesting is that
there's a certain amount of
self-reflection that you need, but if
you get too stuck in your head to try to
solve the problem instead of actually
just doing the thing, that correlates
with a greater level of failure. So, we
want things that are attainable. Next
thing is we want things to be relevant.
So it has to be like relevant to you
here and now. There should be some the
way that I sort of think about it is
when I'm working with a a coaching
client, one question that I'll ask is
I'll ask them, okay, what's your goal
for today's session? And they'll say, my
goal is to figure out what I'm going to
do in my relationship. And then I say,
okay, fine. Then the next question that
I ask, which is really, really
important, is why is this goal relevant
for you to solve today? something about
asking that question, making it relevant
to you here and now shapes your
motivational circuitry in a positive way
because goals that we have that are not
relevant to us here and now. These goals
like oh I want to like write a book one
day. The problem is when that goal is
very far away. If I have a goal that
takes 5 years to do, what's the harm in
delaying a week? There's 274 weeks left
to finish. Like I can absolutely delay.
So make it relevant to the here and now.
And the last thing is make it timebound.
So this is where we get to another
principle of behavioral change which is
not focusing on how much you want
something but focusing on
implementation. So when, where, and how.
Those are the questions that you need to
ask yourself for a New Year's
resolution. So it's not just I want to
go to the gym once a week. On what day
are you going to go? Are you going to go
in the morning? Are you going to go when
you're coming back from work? when,
where, and how are you going to
accomplish the thing? The last point is
that the goal that you're choosing may
actually sabotage you. So, we know that
there are two kinds of goals. There are
approachoriented goals and there are
avoidance goals. So, this is a little
bit different from once again addiction
psychiatry because in addiction
psychiatry sometimes the goal is more
avoidant. But what we know from the
science of behavioral change is that we
basically want to choose approach goals.
And a lot of times in New Year's
resolutions, we pick avoidance goals. So
what's the difference? It's basically,
are you moving towards something or are
you moving away from something? So
here's an example of an avoidance goal.
I want to stop eating fried food. I want
to cut out sugar. I want to stop doing
this. Avoid doing this. I want to stop
feeling a particular way. I'm not going
to feel anxious anymore. I'm going to
stop being lonely. I'm going to stop
being a shut in. So these are avoidance
goals where you're basically moving away
from something. An approach goal is when
you are moving towards something. So an
approach goal is I want to go to the gym
once a week. I want to make a point to
socialize for lunch once a week. So one
goal that I had when I was a freshman in
college and I didn't know anyone is I
had a goal where I was not going to have
lunch with the same person more than
once a week. So this ensured that I was
meeting lots of different people,
distributing my time, not putting all my
eggs in one basket. So an approach goal
is moving towards something. Now, why is
this important? The psychology behind
this is fascinating. We're not 100% sure
about this, but this is what I've seen
just working with people for the last 11
years. Okay, an avoidance goal is
stimulated by a negative emotion. So if
I say, "Okay, I'm not going to be
lonely. I'm not going to be a shutin.
I'm going to leave the house." It may
sound like it's an approach goal, but
it's actually an avoidance goal. So
here's the problem. That goal is
motivated by a negative emotion. Which
means as the loneliness rises, it
crosses a certain threshold and then I
act. Then what happens is once I leave
the house, then my loneliness decreases
and then my motivation disappears. And
if my motivation disappears, I slide
back towards the house. Okay, this is
the problem with avoidance goals is that
they basically trigger action only when
you're failing at the goal. And when you
succeed, now the driver that motivates
you is gone and then you don't do it
anymore. Right? So, oh, thank God I left
the house. Now I'm no longer lonely. And
so you kind of slide back towards being
at the house. Approach goals are the
opposite. When you succeed in an
approach goal, it's not moving from 100
to zero, which is what a lot of
avoidance goals are, right? So, I'm
trying to get rid of something bad. And
once I get rid of something bad, then
I'm just sitting at neutral. approach
goals are different because I'm moving
from zero to 100. I am actively doing
something. I'm going to the gym. I chose
to go to the gym. It's not about losing
weight. It's about becoming stronger.
Okay? It's about exercising more,
improving my health because when I
achieve that thing that is rewarding.
Now I'm trying to do something that
gives me a reward and when I get a
reward that will reinforce the behavior.
And literally what we see is that people
who select approach goals, this is all
about the selection of what you're
doing, are more successful at sticking
with it than avoidance goals. We all
want to make changes in our life and you
should understand the science behind
behavioral change to optimize your
chances for success. And one of the best
things that you can do if you can't
manage it on your own or if you want to
increase your chances of success is work
with someone else. And that's exactly
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