The current global geopolitical landscape is characterized by a breakdown of the post-Cold War US-led order, leading to increased national self-interest, escalating conflicts, and a potential for a new World War, driven by shifts in global power and historical patterns of hegemonic decline.
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the darker predictions of yours is that
we are now well on our way to uh World
War II. Um I just wanted to ask uh why
why this is um what are you looking at?
Is this possible triggers? Do you look
at the chain reactions because well as
we saw from the previous two world wars
uh one thing tends to lead to another
and u one gets sucked in and there
doesn't seem to be a a reverse button at
any point. Uh so what is it that you're assessing?
assessing?
>> Okay. So uh my first piece of evidence
is the American national security
strategy which is which was just
published um one or two weeks ago and it
and it and it's very clear in that
America uh maybe four years ago saw uh
the world as possibly being organized
and coordinated by multilateral
organizations. was important was for
America to be the um enforcer or the
police officer to ensure that people
abide by the uh rulesbased national
order and in this document uh Trump is
very clear this order has dissipated
it's gone and so now that the only thing
that matters is n national self-interest
so America needs to protect its own
national self-interest that primarily
means protecting the western hemisphere
what it calls the mineral doctrine there
something called a trump corery to the
mineral doctrine which is to say that
trouble want to enforce minimal
doctrine. Um so um America believes that
Russia and China have been encroaching
too deeply into South America especially
China which has a lot of um trade
investment agreements with South America
to the benefit of the people there. But
America has always always believed that
South America is American territory and
so now it will protect its territory and
that's why we are seeing the escalation
in Venezuela. We're seeing uh 10% of
America's naval assets um um consolidate
in the Caribbean and recently this
escalation um American forces have have
basically stolen a Venezuela oil tanker
and diverted it to Houston, Texas. Um so
America by enforcing doctrine um this
means that America will now come into
conflict with the entire entire South
America because when America is now
threatening Venezuela, Brazil, um
Colombia, Mex Mexico, they all see their
sovereignty being infringed upon. Um so
that's um one piece of evidence. The
second piece of evidence is of course
what's happening between Russia and
Ukraine. This war between Russia and
Ukraine is essentially over. Uh Russia
is storming on the battlefield. The
morale in Ukraine has collapsed. There's
about 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers who
have deserted. There are millions who
have fled abroad. So Ukraine doesn't
have the manpower nor the resources
uh nor the willpower to continue this
fight. At the same time, the Europeans
insist that the the Ukrainians continue
to fight. Um, so there's talk among
Europeans of confiscating, stealing
those 210 billion euros that it has um
from from Russia assets and giving it
directly to Ukraine. They hit up this
idea because they they understand it's
suicidal. And so now they're they
they've um they're about to give Ukraine
100 million euros um in loans and
interest free loans to continue continue
this war. And the reason why is that
Europe needs to needs to enter this war
at some point and it's afraid that if
there's a peace treaty then uh Russia
will will be able to consolidate its
gains and then use Ukrainian resources
to challenge European supremacy. So
that's the second major front. Then of
course what what we're seeing in the
Middle East is a continuing escalation
between Israel and Iran. So there was a
peace treaty signed uh between Israel
and different parties, Hamas, Hezbollah.
It seems as though Israel has no respect
for these treaties. Uh it seems as
though that Israel is planning to attack
Hezbollah in Lebanon in the next two
weeks. um the Hamas peace treaty will
not hold because Hamas will not uh agree
to give up all its arms because if it
does so then it will be it will wipe out
it will be wiped out by these Israeli
proxies. So the middle Middle East will
only flare up. You know, there was this
um shooting in America of this nuclear
physicist and then there was this
tragedy on Bonnie Beach in Sydney in
Australia where 16 uh people died and
Israel is is pinning the blame on Iran
with absolutely no evidence. There are
these MSAD officers who flown to
Australia to participate in the
investigation and we can suspect that um
they will blame Iran in some way for
what has happened. So all around the
world we're seeing the potential for
massive flare ups in 2026.
>> Well, it seems like uh one of the major
things uh which are changing which you
suggested as well is the the change of
the entire world order though. But
usually new world order would only
consolidate itself after a world war.
That is if you have massive distribution
of power, there's often little ability
of the international system to reform
itself. Usually we need a big war and
then a new status quo can be cemented in
agreements. But this is such a critical
time it seems because the whole world
order after the cold war again the uh
has been based on hedgemony dominance
and now of course that distribution of
power is gone. It is a multipolar
distribution of power. So it's very or
near impossible to transition peacefully
though because uh the old war which was
based on US primacy now needs to find a
whole new system on a balance of power.
I mean this changes absolutely
everything. The rules of the games
change as as you suggested uh I mean why
did the USS now China and Russia can't
be in this backyard but the US of course
can still be in the backyard of Russia
and China. So there there's no
acceptable rules. Uh the institutions
will change the security. Well, I mean
should I still be based only on
deterrence and dominance? If there's now
many centers of power, it doesn't really
make sense. How diplomacy is conducted?
Uh I I just feel like this is very
difficult topics. But no one seemed
willing to accept the reality or even
discuss it. I mean here in Europe um the
the the overall sentiment or narrative
is that all was well and peaceful.
Freedom and democracy was just uh
spreading and then you know evil showed
up and usually has to be personified by
a Putin or a Shiin Ping and um it has to
be confronted must be destroyed and then
peace somehow can return. I mean this is
a very childish way of uh saying that
they want hedgeim money back and um I
guess I say childish because there's no
strategy in terms of what they want to
achieve how they can achieve it means
that's required it's just this emotional
outburst and slogans about what is
unjust and uh as our hedge money was so
virtuous everyone was benefiting uh but
you see this is a problem the inability
of our actual political leaders to
address the critical time we're at and
uh why we we need to essentially find a
new status quo or or is it the inability
to let go of hedgemon is it just that
the rules are changing I mean how can we
explain this
>> yeah I completely agree your assessment
um so before this idea of the liberal
rulesbased natural order it's basically
these western nations uh bullying
exploiting and colonizing the rest of
the world so uh For 20 years, NATO was
expanding um into Russian sphere of
influence. Um and for 20 years, Putin
has been warning uh NATO, you have to
stop, otherwise we have to react. We
have to protect our sovereignty. Um and
NATO refused to listen. Um NATO was
extremely arrogant and that force is put
in his hand. Then China for the longest
time was the um basically the factory to
the world and China agreed to produce
really cheap products to to the world
which increased people centered living
and that made western consumers really
happy. But then came the 2009 financial
crisis when basically because of
circulation because of um uh stupid
policym because of greed the western
economy collapsed and so what happened
was that the western central banks
demand that China um invest in
infrastructure and so for the next 10
years China was digging digging itself
into a hole with all this infrastructure
spending and eventually China decided we
don't have enough resources is to
continue all this um spending on
infrastructure. And now the American
economy has collapsed because the
American consumers have maxed out their
credit cards. The American consumers
have been exploited for the past few
decades and they can no longer uh afford
to spend any more money. So now what
America demands is that Chinese
consumers start spending money. Chinese
consumers start maxing out their credit
cards and that China liberalized its
financial markets and China says we we
will not surrender our sovereignty and
so uh China China is being bullied by
America uh under the first Trump
administration they start to levy all
these terrorists on China um and it's
continued under the um Trump
administration and America insisted on
all these um bullying tactics for
example denying uh China access to
technology to markets. Um re um a few
years ago the Huawei executive uh Mwen
Joel she was arrested transiting in
Vancouver and she was put under
detention for a number of years until
she was finally let go. So um for the
longest time America and his allies were
able to bully the world and over time
Russia and China have stood up and
Europe and America don't like that and
that's that's the world we live in today.
today.
>> Well I feel like we've watched this
movie before to some extent of that is
uh [clears throat] before World War I.
We saw with the rise of Germany that it
effectively outgrew the British
dominated system. So again a shift of
power the British hedgeimon was
declining Germany as a regional power
inc increased. So in 1871 for example uh
Britain produced twice as much steel as
Germany which was a good indicator of
economic power. And 22 years later by
1893 the German steel production had
already then surpassed the British. And
uh by the time World War I broke out in 1914,
1914,
uh German steel production had doubled
that of Britain. So that's a very short
period of time for the whole
relationship to be put on its head. Now
you know you can say power shifts up and
down. But this is uh this is uh quite
critical because the whole European
security architecture then was still
British dominated. So you have then
Germany producing twice as much steel
yet all its major waterways that is
outside you know internally in Germany
are patrolled and controlled by the
British. It's uh it it doesn't really
make much sense. uh but uh it seems you
know after World War II we saw the same
the Germans outgrew the the the the
regional uh security architecture and um
I was wondering do you see this
historical patterns because
we have a similar thing now I mean the
Chinese economy has been the biggest in
the world in terms of purchasing power
parity since 2014
while in in Russia we had the you know
after co after the cold war we decided
let's develop a European security
architecture where they wouldn't have a
seat at the table because we thought
they're weak. They're only going to get
weaker. We're going to manage their
decline. That that would be the new
Europe. So, another treat essentially.
So, but now we ended up in a situation
where the Russians reversed and now they
have the largest state, this largest
economy, territory, population,
military, yet they're supposed to be the
only country in Europe which doesn't
have a seat at the table. So, all these
red flags should be going up. I feel
that this system is not going to produce
stability but war. But yet again we we
we can't even discuss this. I mean if
you listen to the the
European politicians and uh there's
stenographers in the media it's it's
just well you know we have freedom and
democracy and Russia want empire and
then this is it. It's just a good
oldfashioned good versus evil. I mean
it's quite extraordinary. But do you see
um historical continuity on some other levels?
levels?
Look, I mean, for the past 20 years, um,
Britain, Great Britain has been the
chief instigator of wars throughout the
world. Um, you know, you look, you go
back to World War I, and one of the
great injustices of that war was that
Germany was forced to accept all guilt
for causing a war. Um, when, uh, in
fact, you could argue that Britain had
more to do with the cost of World War I
than than German uh, than Germany did.
Okay? And the reason why is that Britain
subscribes to an idea called the
Mckender Heartland thesis. And the idea
is that Britain is a small country with
very little manpower, but it controls
the seas. So in order to maintain its
hijgemony, it needs to create as much
chaos and conflict within Eurasian
continent as much as possible because if
a major power to arise in the Eurasian
continent, whether it be France or the
Oman Empire or Germany or Russia, then
it would unite the Eurasian continent by
railway and it would negate um sea trade
and so Britain would collapse
economically, militarily, um
demographically and so for the past 20
years u Britain has been sowing as much
chaos as possible throughout the
Eurasian continent. So you go back to
the nepotic wars when Britain sponsored
finance seven major wars against France.
Napoleon had basically conquered the
continent by the by the battle of
Ocelitz. Austrian and Russia were
suddenly defeated. But Britain was still
working behind the scenes financing um
wars because Britain could not afford
for France to consolidate Europe and
create a continental system which is
what Napoleon wanted. And then you fast
forward to Germany in the same same
situation. Um so Britain is cannot allow
any power to emerge in Eurasia. And
today America subscribes to the same
concept where um as you say there's a
parallel between what happened before
war between Britain and Germany and now
between China and America where China is
a manufacturing superpower and it needs
all these resources from South America.
North America has something called the
lithium triangle. Uh Chile, Argentina,
and Bolivia. And that that's about 50%
of the world's lithium, which is crucial
for EVs, for um AI, um for for for the
future basically. And so um China has
been invested heavily in South America
building roads, building infrastructure.
There's this mega port that is building
in Peru to uh facilitate trade. Um and
South America has been very receptive
and welcoming of Chinese investment. But
America cannot allow China to continue
to rise and that's why America is going
to use its sea power to disrupt global
trade. Right? So um we we we've seen
American troops boarding this Venezuela
oil tanker. But you know um there was
also this Chinese ship headed to Iran
and it was boarded as well. So um this
is this blatant piracy. America for the
past 50 years says that we will defend
global trade and now America in order to
defend its empire in order to weaken
China and Russia is now resorting to
global piracy. Basically,
>> what is interesting about the end of
World War I though is uh every historian
or more or less every historian
recognizes that the Treaty of Versailles
put in place at the end of the war set
us on a path to a second world war
because it didn't create a sustainable
place for Germany in the new Europe.
However, if you would say that Germany
was provoked to start World War II, then
you're a Nazi sympathizer. So, so it's
it's very strange, you know, it's more
or less the same thing, but I think it
speaks to the I to the mentality that if
you if you recognize something, you
acknowledge it, then you legitimize it.
It just feels like we're a little bit
back there at the moment because this
the Russian invasion, it couldn't
possibly be more in the provoked. This
was provoked in every way, but uh and
you can easily prove this, but you're
not allowed to say it because then
you're legitimizing the invasion. And of
course uh you have to be cancelled
immediately. But um I I thought the
Eurasian heartland comment was
interesting though as you said it deres
to some extent from the Napoleonic
system where they wanted to consolidate
Europe, cut off the British as a
maritime power and then that that that
would destroy them. So this kind of made
the British convinced that you just have
to keep the European powers divided. Of
course, 120 years ago, this came into a
more cohesive theory in terms of
machiner. But uh but in the 19th
century, the British were fighting
Russia as a potential hedgeimon of
Eurasia. And in the 20th century, the
American security strategists also refer
to the heartland theory because they saw
uh yeah, they also saw them as the
maritime power versus the Russian land
power. But today though, Eurasia is not
hegemonic. And while the goal in the
past was primarily to split the Russians
from the Germans, you know, always to
push them out to Asia. This is why we
did the Crimean War against the Russians
as well in the mid-9th century. But now
when you push Russia into Asia, it
doesn't push it into an economic
backwaters. It pushes it straight into
the arms of the most the largest
industrial power and technological power
now in the world, which is China, at
least one of the two. So uh it's it's a
very different setting. So how do you
assess this new new eur new Eurasia? I
mean one shouldn't overestimate the
ability of them to harmonize their
interest and work cohesively. But there
is a commonality though the Russians,
the Chinese, the Indians, I mean
Iranians, many of them have competing
interests. But none but none of them
wants to be dominated by uh by a
maritime power anymore. So how do you
see this impacting or does it impact
this path to World War II?
>> Yeah, I mean exactly. So um you know the
Mckender Haven thesis is is something
that's ascribed to both by the American
Empire as well as the British Empire.
And so what's happening is that because
of American aggression because this
system the final system where the US
dollar is the world's reserve currency
which gives America exorbitant privilege
which is say you can print as $30
trillion and not have to suffer anything
and the rest of the world has to absorb
this debt. Um it's driving uh the Brits
countries uh and in Iran into each
other's arms. So the great nightmare for
the Anglo-American Empire is an alliance
between Russia, Iran and China. And of
course India will also um come into this
alliance eventually at some point
because it benefits India and this
creates the Eurasian trade continental
system, right? And and Iran is the key
because Iran's the pivot. It's the
center of the world. Um all these trade
alliances run through Iran. So uh the
Europeans have something called EMAC uh
the European uh India Middle East
corridor. Uh Russia has something called
the north south corridor. China of
course has a has a B and road
initiative. So Iran is a key um and
that's why America is intent on regime
change in Iran. Um America cannot afford
for this alliance to take shape to
manifest itself because then America
would lose uh trade access in the
Eurasian continent. China, Russia and
Iran can just trade amongst themselves
and then provide um energy and food and
manufactured goods to uh the Middle East
to Africa uh to Europe and so and then
America is stuck with $30 trillion in
debt and the America Ponzi scheme would
collapse. So for this this is a life
this this is a life and death struggle
for America. So what it needs to do is
go into Iran and make sure this alliance
cannot take shape. um it doesn't have to
win the war, but it needs to create as
much chaos as as possible. And that's
why I think in 2026 2026, we'll see an
escalation in rhetoric and conflict
between America and Iran with with
Israel as of course as a pit dog for the
American Empire.
It's funny when the complexity of this
geopolitics has to be sold to the
public. it's uh sold in the most uh
absurd ways such as well we want to have
more women rights in Ukra sorry women
rights in uh in Iran like this is
apparently what drives the great power
rivalry uh but to what ex sorry no I
mean like you look at this pony beach um
tragedy where 16 people were killed and
we know that the person who committed
the crime was an Islamic state sympathizer
sympathizer
Um, and already they're putting the
blame on Iran. Why is Mossad involved in
this sign the police investigation? I I
mean, it seems as though they're looking
for every single pretext to create
public anger at Iran.
Yeah. Well,
a key problem as well. If you look at
the all the previous two world wars, if
you're going to look towards the well,
hopefully not the third one coming, uh
uh it's also been the assumption that
the wars could be limited. Again, by
definition, they had this uh chain
reaction that uh you know, one thing led
to another. I mean I remember when at
university when I was teaching um uh
causality I would use world one as an
example this leads to this this you know
nobody wanted to go down this path but
much of it seems to be based on the
premise that they're able to limit the
wars in other words it's this illusion
of escalation control uh you know we see
some indications of this in Europe today
that is the Europeans say oh we can send
some troops to Ukraine the idea is we
can just tip the scales a bit towards
Ukraine's favor to re rebalance it and
then uh and then stabilize the front
lines so we can keep it the war going.
But uh
but but it's it's um it seems like the
delusion the fact that they will be able
to control this and somehow that the
Russian responses to Europeans entering
the battlefield and then let's just
contain the war to Ukraine and Russia.
Uh you know Europe should not be be a
part of this war. we're just sending
troops and weapons and uh you know the
targeting but how how do you see this in
a wider historical context and and what
what we're seeing in the world today though
though
>> I know that's a very big question
>> why look look yeah I mean but it's a
common pattern in history where all wars
started out as limited wars where one
party is trying to trying to achieve
certain strategic objectives and it
always escalates into a full-scale war
uh beyond anyone's control there's the
idea of mission creeps. So think about
Vietnam where at first um America was
just sending in some advisors or
trainers into um Vietnam to bolster the
South Vietnamese regime and eventually
escalated to the point where you know
the entire American military was
involved in a full-scale war in Vietnam.
Um so I think one major flash point that
we should look at is Venezuela right
because Trump is very clear. Trump is
saying that you know I'm not going to
declare war. This is just a uh operation
to destroy drug cartels because Maduro
he is a drug kingping kingping and we
will we will we will uh make we are
trying to save as many American lives as
possible. Okay. So that's just the
rhetoric for public consumption. We all
know that Venezuela has the world's
largest proven oil reserves and um Trump
is trying to um create uh make
Venezuelan into an economic vessel.
Okay. So, you would think that this war
would be only limited to Venezuela and
and America, but this war has a
potential to escalate very quickly
because um Cuba and Nikuaga would be on
the on the next hit list after
Venezuela. Also, if you're Brazil, you
would think that your real the real
target is you because what happened was
that um before the trade war between
China and America, America was providing
China's um soybeans. uh China imports a
third of its food and it gets it used to
get most of its so soybeans from
American farmers and because of the
trade war China started to import uh soy
beans from Brazil and um ever since then
the economic relationship between Brazil
and China has only improved dramatically
and so u China right now is uh Brazil's
biggest trade partner and this is and
this is true for for every nation in
South America so um if You're a South
African nation. First of all, you're
outraged of the fact that um Trump is
trying to conduct regime change in
Venezuela. You don't like the Yankees.
Uh you've had this long history where
the CIA plots coups in your in your
nation, killing millions of people. Um
you also want to maintain good trade
relations with China because China
actually gives puts real uh investment
in your country. They build roads. Uh
they build good infrastructure. Uh they
contribute to the livelihood of your
ordinary citizens and America wants
wants wants to take that take that away.
So um this war could escalate to a point
where okay maybe American ground troops
in Venezuela but Brazil and other
nations covertly send troops to
reinforce the Venezuelan regime because
they know that if Venezuela falls, they
all fall together. So um it's it's it's
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