YouTube Transcript:
Geo-Strategy Update: US-Iran War Incoming

Skip watching entire videos - get the full transcript, search for keywords, and copy with one click.

Video Transcript

Available languages:

View:

Hi. Hi YouTube. Uh this is Professor

Jang again. Um I am in Toronto. I'm

still trying to recover from the jetlack

and the uh time difference. Um

um as everyone knows um it seems this

war in the Middle East is uh blowing up

and it seems like even though the United

States has yet to declare war on Iran

um it will probably happen um in the

next couple of days with the United

States um bombing Iran.

Um so

um today I'm going to share with you my

impressions, my analysis of what's

happened of what's happening in the

Middle East. Um and I hope that um this

discussion will be clarifying

and illuminating for uh many of you.

So, um it's very clear what the US

intention is.

Um because we've seen what the United

States has done to Iraq, Libya, and

Syria. They call it regime change, but

it's really the destruction of the

society. Um the destruction of the

capacity as a people to be a nation to

work collectively. And the most glaring

example of course is Iraq. um in 2003

before the Americans invaded it was a

fairly well functioning society. Yeah. I

mean there were sanctions that

impoverished the people but overall I

mean it was a fairly stable um society

in middle middle east. United States

goes in over for Osam Hussein. And at

that time you had a lot of people who

welcome this uh transition and this

change and they believe that the

Americans will implement democracy which

was a state mission and it will lead to

a more prosperous Iraq. But very soon afterwards

afterwards

the Americans implement a policy called debuffification

debuffification

uh which is to remove anyone from the

Baptist party from government from the

military from the police. And the

problem with this is these are the elite

of society. You remove the elite from

society from the pillars of power

society um ceases to function properly.

And that's exactly what happened. It led

to massive sectarian violence that

continues even today in Iraq. So, um I

can't believe that anyone's stupid to

not know the consequences of this policy

of deaf.

Um and so when Americans say regime

change in the Middle East, think of Iraq

2003 and what happened afterwards.

So um the question now is how will the

Americans move forward? Well the

American strategy in the Middle East um

it's been in place for the past 20 years

and regime change requires three

pillars. Okay. The first pillar is um

um decapitation of the leadership. Just

remove the entire leadership. Okay. Uh

second is um revolutionary um intent and

you do that through economic sabotage,

right? For sanctions by by destroying

infrastructure that allows uh people to

live normal lives which includes water

supply, electricity.

Um and the third pillar of the strategy

is to ferment sectarian violence to

divide and conquer the people to take

advantage of the fact that uh within the

societies there are there are these

minorities of people who have have

traitionally traditionally been

suppressed. You give them a promise of a

better life. So in Iraq 2003 you had the

Kurds but you also had uh the Shia the

Shia the Shiites. um um Iran, there are

tons and tons of minorities who are

discontent with the way things are right

now. So that's the American strategy uh

moving forward. And if we want to

clarify or simplify the strategy, we can

use um a metaphor. Okay, Americans to

win wars in the Middle East, they use

bombs, they use propaganda, and um they

use money. Okay, the bombs is basically

you have these fighter jets going in to

destroy uh any military opposition.

Propaganda is CNN, BBC, New York Times

to create the impression that this is

being done in the name of democracy and

prosperity and and peace. And then uh

money in that you are financing a lot of

the opposition groups. You you're

financing a lot of the internal disscent

uh which will overthrow the regime. So

um this strategy, bombs, propaganda,

money, it's also being implemented right

now in Iran. Um and in fact, you can

make argument that this has been going

on secretly underground for many years now.

now.

Personally, I think the strategy won't

work. Um first of all, bombs don't

really work with the geography of Iran.

Remember Iran, it is a mountainous

terrain. Um, so it's it's a huge huge

country. It's three times the size of

Iraq. So I'm not I'm not um convinced

that um air strikes will do any real

lasting damage to the infrastructure of Iran.

Iran.

propaganda. New York Times, CNN, BBC

have absolutely no credibility today.

Not even among among Western domestic

audiences. Um they they have even less credibility

credibility

um um in Iran. And then you have uh

money and um I don't know how effective

money will be because at the end of the

day what differentiates Iran from say

Libya, Syria and Iraq is the people in

Iran consider consider themselves

Persians. In other words, they consider

themselves heroes to a brilliant

creative uh civilization that's been

around for 5,000 years. And um I can't

overstate enough um the motiv how that

would energize and motivate the people

to resist and to uh unite together.

Also what's really important is um the

Iranians saw exactly what happened to

the Iraqis. this once vibrant,

harmonious, um, brilliant um, nation was

destroyed by American nation by by

American sanctions and American air

strikes. Um, so um, I don't think that

the Americans have a compelling case to

make before the Iranian uh, people. So

um this another way of say another way

of saying this is that even though it

seems the Americans have the military

advantage um they are they are still the

greatest military in human history.

The the problem though is the Iranians

have much more strategic flexibility.

And what I mean by that is the Americans

to overthrow this regime need um to

decap decapitate uh the leadership. They

need to create internal disscent, a

revolution, and they need to rally the

religious minorities against the um the

regime in Tran. Okay. And that's really

um the main strategy moving forward and

really the only Oh, there's my son Chris

by the way. Um and that's the only

um real path to victory for the

Americans, whereas the Iranians have

much more strategic flexibility. Okay.

So um in other words, America and its

allies in the Middle East have major

strategic vulnerabilities.

Um let's for example, let's take Saudi

Arabia. Well, Saudi Arabia has two

vulnerable resources that the American

that the that sorry the Iranians at any

time can strike at through the proxies

uh the Houthies, right? You have the

desalination plants which provides which

is the only source of fresh water for

Saudi Arabia. If you knock out the

salination plants in Saudi Arabia, uh

Saudi Arabia loses all its fresh water

in two weeks time and there's no way of

replenishing that fresh water. Then of

course you have the oil fields which are

extremely vulnerable to rocket attacks.

So um Saudi Arabia, the main US ally of

Arab nations in the Middle East, um um

it's extremely vulnerable to um Iranian

attacks. Then you have the trade of

humus which controls a great deal of the

world's trade. If Iran closes that off

then that cuts off cuts off not just oil

to East Asia uh but it cuts cuts off

revenue for American allies like Oman,

Saudi Arabia, uh the UAE,

um Qatar. Um, and the last strategic

vulnerability is you have all sorts of

American bases uh throughout the Middle

East, especially in Kuwait, um,

especially in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and

these are legitimate military targets if

America declares war on Iran. So, um,

another another way of saying this is

Americans their ability to inflict pain

on Iran. Um, we know it's predictable

and we know that the Iranians can

sustain it because this sanction regime

has been on has been going on for the

past few decades. But the Iranians

ability to inflict pain on American

allies as well as the American military

as well as American consumers

um, well, they're not really

predictable. And ultimately you can make

the argument that because America is not

the Americans people are not in favor of

this war then it's very it's less likely

that uh American consumers will be able

to sustain absorb high oil prices and

inflation that this war would inevitably

cause. So um I would say the main advantage

advantage

um um going into this war just from a

geopolitical uh anecical perspective I

would say it's very much in favor of the

um Iranians. This not this does not mean

that um the Americans and Israelis will

not be able to inflict tremendous damage

on the nation. Um I I mean if America

and Israel continues its bombing

campaign, which I suspect it will for

the next few months, then we will see

tremendous damage um and economic loss

within Iran. Um but ultimately war is

not decided by resources, weapons or

technology. It's not it's really decided

by a people's willingness to fight and

die for what they believe in. And I

think at um when it comes to this

question then I think the Iranians um

have a huge advantage over the

Americans. Also, let's not forget that

the Iranians have been studying Sorry,

sorry, sorry. The Americans have been

studying um the

um American strategy in the Middle East

for the past 20 years. And I'm pretty

sure they developed counter strategies

against an American attack. And I think

the main main um counter strategy is the

idea of decentralization. You've got

these different militias, different

cells embedded in different parts of of

Iran. So even though America and Israel

they may be able to decapitate the

leadership, they may be able to knock

out the central leadership in Tran um

they won't be able to occupy the country

and unless they're able to occupy the

country and install a military regime

that's to their liking then um this war

is not won then then then Iran is still

a functioning um threat to um American

Middle East interests. Okay. Um having

gone through some broad analysis,

let's look at questions that um viewers

have been asking on my discord server.

Okay, so the first big question is will

nuclear weapons be used in this war at

any point? And my intuition tells me it

won't be okay for many many reasons.

Okay, the first major reason is this is

huge taboo against the use of nuclear

weapons. If America were to detonate a

nuke that America would lose all

credibility, all authority um um among

its allies and among among the world and

we we have to remember like a lot like

this war is being fought to reestablish

American credibility and authority in

the world. Um Putin's invasion of

Ukraine did a great deal of damage to

Americans reputation and fighting this

war in Ukraine is to reestablish the

idea that America is still the global

hedgeimon that is still a unipolar

world. And so by getting a nuke it shows

the desperation, anxiety um and quite

honestly incompetence of the American

military. Okay. So I so for that reason

I don't think America will use nukes.

Also, even though Putin has not publicly

stated um that he will he will retaliate

if America will use a nuke against Iran,

he hasn't done this publicly because

it's not to his advantage to state to

say it publicly. But I'm sure that

through back channels through uh inter

intermediaries uh Putin has made this

very clear to the Americans and Putin

will tolerate an American invasion of

Iran but he will not tolerate

um uh nuclear weapons being used in this

war. So I think we can discount

um the use of nukes in this war. um we

have to we would have to reach a very uh

high point in escalation ladder for even

nukes to be considered in this war.

Okay. So I think like for the purpose

purpose of analysis let's discount the

possibility of nukes.

Second question is um what are unknowns

in going into this war? Okay. Well I

think there are three big unknowns. The

first big unknown is what happens if the

Americans kill the supreme leader of

Iran. this would trigger a sess

cessation crisis. Um his son um is

supposed to

uh take over in the case of the death of

the Ayatollah, but he's extremely

unpopular and he's he's he's not that

competent. So I'm not sure if um the

death of the sup supreme leader, the

assassination of the supreme leader,

what that would do to the dynamic of

this war. But I would assume that this

would be a huge advantage for uh for the

Americans and the Israelis. So I think

that's a big question. Are they will

they be able to assassinate the supreme

leader? Okay, that's the first big

question. Second big question is what

will Putin's response be? Um, and I

think I think as we know Putin has

withdrawn a lot of of his Soviet a lot

of his Russian adviserss from Iran and

Putin has stayed pretty quiet um in the

matter and um so um what he intends

um what he will do we just don't know

right now and I think that's the

intention. I I think Putin um wants to

be the power broker behind the scenes.

Um and I think um in many ways he's

setting up a trap for America because

um there's really one scenario in which

America loses this war. Okay, really

badly. Um if America would send in

ground troops, it would lose this war.

And the reason why is the idea of sunk

cost fallacy. All right. So, so if

America were to send in the Marines and

a ground invasion, we can expect the

American military would just bulldoze

all position. It would establish um uh

beach heads. It would establish um fort

operating bases throughout the interior

of Iran. And at this point, everyone's

like cheering on like look how great the

American military is. There's a surge of

patriotism in America. the American

media, CNN, New York Times, they are

just placing the American military to

the sky. And um it would be it it would

seem a repeat of Operation Desert Storm

in 2003. The problem though is the

American military does not have the

death, the strategic death, the

resources, the supply lines in order to

sustain this attack. And what would

happen very quickly is this massive

blitz crack, shock and all, whatever you

call it, um, in Iran would get bogged

down really quickly. And at this point,

it' be very easy for the underground

militias, these, um, these cell groups

to strike at supply lines for the

Americans. and and it'll become very

quickly almost an almost an impossible

um war to win for the uh uh for the

Americans and um but at the same time

they've invested so much and they're so

close to tan right they're so close to

taking over the capital so they can't

give up it's sunk cost fallacy and saus

fallacy is such a powerful force in

geopolitics and so the um the Americans

are kind of stuck there and then they're

just forced to it's a black hole for

them. They're just forced to throw in resources

resources

um that they don't have and this might

trigger um well this this will

definitely trigger protest across

America which may lead to a civil war.

Um so remember it's impossible for any

nation in this world to defeat America

just impossible. All right? Right? Even

if the entire world were to get together

and attack America, the world the world

would still lose. The only way to defeat

America is by causing a civil war, a

revolution in America that would damage

the regime so much that America would be

forced to retreat from its obligations

in the world. Okay. So my question then

is does Putin understand this? And he

has set he set up conditions in a way to

create this outcome. And my thinking is

yes, Putin, this is Putin's plan moving

forward and Putin will be working behind

the scenes in order to create a

situation where America is forced to um

uh invade uh Iran with ground forces.

The these ground forces will seem to be

really quickly establish

supremacy in Iran, but they get bogged

down and then Trump the Americans may be

forced to have a draft. Um and this will

lead to Vietnam war protests and

conflicts across uh America which may in

the end trigger an American civil war.

So that's um Putin and Russia and but

again we don't know exactly what they

will do but if I'm right about Putin

then um I think he will very much be the

mass manipulator behind the scenes. The

third great unknown is China. Um, China

and Iran have very strong economic ties.

China gets a third to half its oil from

Iran. If Iran were to fall and America

were to control the oil supply, then the

Chinese economy would be in a lot of

trouble. Geopolitically, this would be

very very bad for China. Um, so that so

China is a great unknown. What what's

what will China's response be?

My prediction is we will not hear from

China in this conflict that much. In

fact, we can sort of discount China from

uh from this war. And there are reasons

why. Okay, the first major reason is

China doesn't really have a grand

geopolitical strategy. It doesn't really

understand its place in the world. It

doesn't have a theory to explain its

place in the world. So remember um

previously I discussed the heartland

thesis, the Mckender thesis where both

America and Britain need to um stop a

hedgemon emerging to unite the Eurasian

continent. Okay? Because if if a land

power would emerge, maybe Germany, maybe

Russia were able to unite Europe and

Asia together, then um that would

destroy America and Britain's capacity

to control global trade, right? You can

have railways connect Eurasia and you

really don't have to trade for the seas

anymore. So that's the um that's how

America and Britain sees the world. Uh

Russia understands that it is extremely

vulnerable to invasions. It been it's

been invaded by uh multiple nations in

its history which has caused tremendous

death and destruction within Russia. So

Russia needs to be on the offensive if

it is to maintain its if if it is to

maintain its territorial integrity.

Okay. But when we go to China, China

doesn't really care about the rest of

the world. Um for China what's important

is to maintain its territorial integrity

by not participating in the world. Uh

China built the great wall and the

purpose of the great wall was to prevent

outsiders from coming to China but also

to prevent insiders from leaving China.

Um so for China its main priority is to

maintain its inter territory integrity

and what it understands is um the only

way for the communist party to fall in

China is if it were to engage itself in

an external geopolitical conflict that

has no way of extruding itself from.

That's why China is not going to get

involved in this war in the Middle East.

And at the end of the day, if the United

States conquers Iran and forces China to

pay twice, three, four times as much for

oil, then China will just absorb the

cost. Uh because for China, what's

really important is to maintain the

stability of the regime. The

geopolitical geopolitics doesn't really

matter. Okay. So, I would say these are

the three big questions moving forward

that we can watch out for. um will the

Americans be able to kill the Supreme

Leader because that is definitely on the

agenda and they're investing a lot of

resources to ensure this possibility and

I'm not sure if it will happen. Um but

if the conse but if it does happen then

consequences for Iran will be quite

dire. Okay. Um another unknown is Russia

what Putin will do. um we

um I think it it it will be all almost

be impossible to truly gauge his

intentions and strategy moving forward.

Now known as China will China

participate in this uh conflict on the

side of Iran.

Um my guess my prediction is if there is

participation it'll be much more it'll

be very limited. So China will supply

supplies uh armaments but it will not um

intervene on behalf of Iran um to the

degree that Iran would would really

want. Okay. So um um one last thing I

want to talk about is some of you have

been curious as to how I've been able to

so accurately predict um the contours of

this war. And so the quick answer to

this is I use a new analytical model

called game theory. And um game theory

is something that I will discuss in

greater detail um over the next few

months as I analyze this war even more.

Um and um game theory is not a secret. I

mean it's it is not something that's

impossible to learn. Uh my hope as we

move along is to teach everyone the

ability to use game theory to analyze

geopolitics in order to anticipate

events and to prepare for events. Um so

um that's it for my first analysis of

this war. I'm hoping to make more more

more updates as this war progresses. Um,

and um, so there's lots of things I

could I can't really talk about on

YouTube because I'll be banned or I'll

be censored. So, as some of you know, I

had a German video. I I I I made a um

video on the history of Germany and

that's been banned in Germany by by

YouTube because it was flagged by

certain users who found some material

within the video extremely

controversial. Um, so, um, so I need to

be really careful about what I say in

order to avoid YouTube censorship. I'll

probably at some point, uh, move to

Rumble where I'll be more free to

discuss what I really think about the

world. Um, um, so um, please watch out

for that. I'll make an announcement if I

move on to Rumble. Okay. But, uh, the

big announcement is I've set I set up a

Discord server. As some of you know,

this Discord server will allow us to

engage as a community. And what I'm

hoping to do at some point is set up um

a time for where we can have question

answer where you can like ask me

anything and I'll tell you how I um how

how my thought process works and and and

guide you through the process of

developing a game theory mindset. So you

can for yourself analyze global events

using uh game theory. So um the link to

my discord server called predictive

history it's it's in it's in the

description. Uh so please click on that

and please join uh the server the

discord server and um very quickly we'll

set up like an hour uh live stream where

I'll answer some questions that you have

posted on the discord server. I

apologize if I'm if I'm not responding

to your messages. Um I have two young

boys who are running around the park

right now and I have to watch them and

um they're very active. Um and they're

suffering from jet lag. So I'm taking

out I'm taking them out on strolls to

the parks every single day. So I'm

usually not at home. I don't have

internet access um outside uh my my

parents house. So I apologize if I'm

responding to you um in in real time to

your queries and to your message. Um I

am extremely faith thankful and grateful

for the community that we we're

developing right now and I hope to uh

build on on this community because as

some of you have pointed out the world

is moving to a very dark place and the

only way to sur survive and to

anticipate and to prepare for the chaos

that this new world will bring about is

to come together as community and to

help each other out and to have

solidarity. Okay. So, please join the

the Discord server and uh I will see

Click on any text or timestamp to jump to that moment in the video

Most transcripts ready in under 5 seconds

One-Click Copy125+ LanguagesSearch ContentJump to Timestamps

Paste YouTube URL

Enter any YouTube video link to get the full transcript

Most transcripts ready in under 5 seconds

Get Our Chrome Extension

Get transcripts instantly without leaving YouTube. Install our Chrome extension for one-click access to any video's transcript directly on the watch page.

Add to Chrome — Free

Works with YouTube, Coursera, Udemy and more educational platforms

Get Instant Transcripts: Just Edit the Domain in Your Address Bar!

YouTube

←

→

↻

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc

YoutubeToText

←

→

↻

https://youtubetotext.net/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc

YouTube Transcript:Geo-Strategy Update: US-Iran War Incoming

Video Transcript

Paste YouTube URL

Transcript Extraction Form

Get Our Chrome Extension

Get Instant Transcripts: Just Edit the Domain in Your Address Bar!

YouTube Transcript:
Geo-Strategy Update: US-Iran War Incoming