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The Greatest Power Shift in Centuries — The End of Western Dominance｜Kishore Mahbubani
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Geopolitics
is the most cruel game in the world
and we are today
in terms of geopolitical shifts of power
experiencing far more geopolitical
shifts of power and I give you some
example than any other time
and it's very important therefore for countries
countries
even nice countries like Canada have got
to understand being that being nice is
not enough. That you got to learn to be
very geopolitically shrewd and cunning
and mark your valiant if you're going to
survive in this world.
>> What you just heard was a stunning
warning from a lecture Professor Kishor
Machbubani delivered in Hong Kong on
August 27th, 2025.
The speaker Kishor Machbubani is not a
theorist. He is a seasoned veteran
diplomat who has presided over the UN
security council and he is globally
renowned for his perspective as one of
Asia's top strategic thinkers.
What he is about to argue is that we are
living through an unprecedented global transformation.
transformation.
A world order dominated by the west for
centuries is now facing a fundamental
and irreversible challenge. Using a
series of irrefutable data points and
insider observations from the halls of
power, he will reveal the great
rebalancing of the east rising and the
west declining.
And he will pose a sharp question to the
west. Are you ready for a world where
you are no longer the undisputed center
of the stage?
This is an analysis of the most profound
shift of our era and its conclusions are
relevant to all of our futures. Let's
listen in. We actually live in an
amazing time of amazing changes around
the world and as a result of that all of
us I think have an obligation to try and
keep up with what's happening and
suggest how we adapt to it and that's
the goal of my remarks today and and and
the point that we have to acknowledge
at the very beginning
is that we are in in 2025 5 celebrating
the 80th anniversary since the end of
And when future historians look at our
time in the last 80 years,
at the end of the day, you have to
acknowledge that we have created
overall a better world for humanity.
A lot of us and certainly be in East
Asia have prospered as a result of a
world order that the west gifted to us
in 1945.
That world order has served us very
well. But the reality is that that world
order is now under threat.
And what I hope to do is to explain to
you where the threat comes from and what
we need to do. uh about it and I'll try
to divide my remarks into three parts.
In part one, I want to explain
how the world has changed so dramatically
dramatically
and this dramatic these dramatic changes
of course mean that we have to change
the world order. And then in part two
I'll explain where the resistance to
this change is coming from.
and then in part three hopefully
suggests why it would be wiser for those
who are resisting this change to avoid
doing so. So let me let me begin with
part one and to talk just just to
illustrate to you with a few statistics
of how much the world has changed fundamentally
fundamentally
especially in terms of the shift of
power as Cheng was saying in his remarks
earlier the shift of power from the west
to the east. Now I give you three
examples which to illustrate how
dramatic the shift of power has been.
First I'll compare
the European Union with China.
In 1980
45 years ago the combined economy of the
EU was 10 times larger than China. 10 times.
times.
Today EU and China are about the same size.
size.
By 2050,
EU will be half the size of China.
I want to emphasize one point.
This kind of massive structural shift in
one human lifetime of 70 years where the
European Union goes from being 10 times
larger to becoming half the size in 70
years. These kinds of structural shifts
don't happen very often. And because
they are happening now, the pressure for
change becomes very real. But let me
give you two other examples.
The second one I'll compare the United
Kingdom and India. And this is a good
comparison to make. Just remember a 100
years ago quite remarkably
100 years ago a 100,000 Englishmen
could effortlessly rule over 300 million Indians.
Indians.
I mean looking back now it's it's quite
stunning that that happened. I mean just
imagine today the British prime minister
sending 100,000 Englishmen to run India
today. They'd be massacred, right?
But that happened 100 years ago. But I
can tell you even as recently as 1990,
35 years ago, the British GDP was still
four times larger than that of India.
Right? But last year, India surpassed
the British to have a larger economy. And
And
by 2050,
India will be four times the size of the British.
British.
Right? Look at that.
In 1980, the British were four times
bigger than India. By 2050, India will
be four times bigger than the UK.
A major fundamental shift. And let me
give you a third example because
everyone knows the China story. Everyone
knows the India story. I'm glad you
mentioned Asean Cheng. But Asean has
also done remarkably well. As recently
as 2000, Germany, which is the
industrial power powerhouse of Europe,
was three times bigger than ASEAN.
In by last year or this year, Germany
and ASEAN about the same size and by
2050, Germany will be half the size of
ASEAN. Again, in barely 50 years,
Germany goes from being three times
bigger to becoming half the size of
ASEAN. So these are you can see
therefore there has been a massive shift
of power in the world. So if when when
when such massive shifts of power happen
the logical thing to do the rational
thing to do is to adapt
our world order adapt international
organizations to deal with the different
world. Unfortunately
that is not happening. So in part two of
my remarks I I hope to speak about where
the resistance is coming from and it's a
deep resistance.
Now I I'm going to speak about the West
broadly speaking, but you'll be
surprised that I'm going to give a bit
more emphasis on the European Union
rather than the United States because overall
overall
one of the remarkable things about the
United States is that it has basically
kept the size of his GMPP in the world
relatively constant which is a must say
quite an amazing achievement by the
United states around 2000 it was 25% of
the world's GDP today is still around
25% of the world's GDP so the United
States has been changing adapting
growing in its own as you know unusual
ways and everyone thinks that when you
talk about the world order you must talk
about the threats by posed by President
Donald Trump and his tariffs and so on
so forth and of course all those things
are disrupting the world but at the end
of the Today
it's the structural adjustments that
have to be made that are more important
than the temporary tariffs that you see
problem. You can you can get very
distracted by the issue of Trump and
tariffs but by so doing you're not
paying attention to the deeper
structural challenges that have to be
dealt with. And here in terms of
structural changes
since power has shifted away from Europe
very clearly, it's Europe's resistance
to change in international organizations
that has become in some ways the biggest
problem in terms of adapting to a new
world. And just to give you let me
illustrate that point with two examples.
The first is of course in theory the
world's most powerful uh economic
international economic organization
which is the IMF
and it's interesting that if you go to
the IMF website
and my research assistants found this
and this is what the IMF website says in
the IMF's own fact sheet on how it makes
decision It claims that quote voting
power and decision making at the IMF
reflect its member country's relative
economic position.
Let me repeat that. This is what the IMF
says. Voting power and decision making
at the IMF
reflect its member country's relative
economic position. And then he goes on
to say the IMF works to ensure that its
governance structure keeps pace with
changes in the world economy
including the larger role that emerging
market and developing countries now have
unquote. So it's very clear that the IMF
honestly admits that voting structure
must reflect the new economic balance of
power in the world. Now I already told
you that the EU and China share today of
global GMPP is about the same at 17%.
And therefore the IMF voting share of
the EU should be 17%.
And the IMF voting share of China should
be 17%.
Guess what the numbers are?
The Europe share of IMF voting structure
is 26%
instead of 17%.
and China share is 6%
instead of 17%.
So even though the IMF website says
clearly voting shares reflect a
country's share of global economic power
that's not shown
and the reason why the change doesn't happen
happen
is because the European countries
have done a brilliant job of fighting
this incredible resistance
uh fight creating this incredible
resistance to change in very artful
little ways of ensuring that the voting
shares don't keep up with the new order.
And though that's one example of
resistance of change now, if the IMF is
the uh incidentally uh I'm not the only
person who says this, I came across a
quote recently by a Brazilian uh economist
economist
Paulo Batista Jr. who's by the way a
former executive director at the IMF and
in a re in a recent report he said quote
European resistance to reform is a
longstanding intractable problem at the
root of a large part of the IMF's
increasingly legitimacy problems
Europe's Europe makes at most partial or
even only verbal concessions on these
matters so this European resistance to
change has been noted and documented by
lots of other people too.
Now the second example I was going to
give if I was going to say if the IMAF
is the uh most powerful uh international
economic organization the most powerful
international political organization by
far is the UN security council. uh the
UN security council is the only
international body that has the power to
make decisions that are binding and
mandatory on all member states of the
UN. So in a sense that's where the real
uh power is and for those of you who
have been familiar my writings on the UN
uh you know that I've also discussed the
UN security council at great length and
in theory the UN security council has
got 10 me 15 members the five permanent
member states P5 of US Russia China UK
France and the 10 other elected members
but I can tell you that uh after
Singapore spent two years in the UN
security council and I was the Singapore
ambassador to the UN when I left the UN
security council uh I came to the
conclusion that the UN security council
has got five members and 10 observers
and the 10 observers were treated and by
the way the one of the French
ambassadors was very honest about it uh
when when Singapore tried to propose
some changes in the working methods of
the UN security council to try and
improve the security council. The French
ambassador said, "Why are these tourists
want one trying to change the the
furniture in our living room
which is very honest I must say but
that's that reality is that is the five
permanent members who run the UN
security council. Now what's interesting
about this composition of these five
permanent members is that in theory
uh the the five permanent members are
supposed to represent the great powers
of the day and there's no doubt in 1945
uh the five great powers of the day were
United States then Soviet Union
um China
UK and France but this is 2025
and you've already seen seen how the
British economy has shrunk, how the
French economy has also shrunk relative
to the rest of the world, but they still
remain permanent members of the UN
Security Council uh resisting change.
And this is a story uh I got to know
very well because the UN actually set up
something called the open-ended working
group on UN Security Council reform in
1993, I think. And we are now in 2025.
Uh 32 years have gone by. Nothing has
changed. So someone said let's change
the name of the working group to from
open-ended working group on UN security
council reform to neverending UN security
security
group reform. It's a serious suggestion
and but I can tell you incidentally
unless you've been in the trenches and I
have been actually in the trenches
fighting these issues of trying to
reform international organizations.
You have no idea
how brilliant the Europeans are at
fighting change. Brilliant. Because what
they will say up front is that of course
we are for change. Yes, we are for
change. But behind the scenes they know
exactly what to what levers to pull,
what to do to ensure that change doesn't
happen. And so you have this rather
crazy situation whereby you know like uh
UK Europe for example as I mentioned
earlier now has 17% of the global GMPP
but in terms of permanent membership
seats they have 40% because UK and
France make up two-fifths uh of the five
permanent members and that's why I wrote
an article in the uh Financial Times uh
last year and I'm actually genuinely
surprised the Financial Times published
it. It shows you how open-minded the
Financial Times is. I said that you know
clearly I gave you the data already how
India's economy is now larger than the
British. You by 2050 you'll be four
times bigger than the British. So the
British perhaps as a nice act of
atonement for the colonization of India
should voluntarily give up their
permanent membership seat to India.
And uh and and in that's a that's
actually I I'm glad you you laugh
because it is it sounds funny but it is
actually a serious suggestion
because Britain today
represents a country of the past.
India represents a country of the future
and the past must give way
uh to the future. And you know some of
you must have noticed in in a recent column
column
by Martin Wolf on the state of his own
country UK. I never forget the first
line of his column. The first line of
his column said, "The UK has failing politics,
politics,
Failing politics, a failed state, and a
failing economy. So why are you clinging
on to permanent membership? Why not give
away? Right? That's the rational,
logical thing to do. But sadly it is not
happening. So in the five minutes that I
have left, I'm going to try and explain why
why
we should work to persuade the Europeans
that is actually in Europe's interest to
make way for other powers in many of
these key international organizations
organizations
because at the end of the day,
the most important fact that the west
should realize
is that if you look at the world's
population there are 8 billion people in
the world
only 12% live in the west
88% live in the rest
and we are now as as as everyone
understands we live in a small
interdependent shrinking world right in
fact Kofian very aptly
compared it to a global village. Now if
you are living in a small
densely interconnected global village
and you are 12% of the population,
it's in your interest as a minority
to ensure that the village is wellrun,
is stable and not chaotic.
Right? So you want to have a village
council that is functioning well.
And what's interesting is that it is at
the end of the day is the west and
certainly Europe that taught the world
that when you want to have village councils,
councils,
the best village councils are the
democratic village councils
where people vote. And so the village
council must represent the village as a
whole and not represent a minority.
And this is at the end of the day
the biggest paradox about our time
because domestically
the western countries preach the virtues
of democracy.
You know stunningly
democracy is the best way of running a society.
society.
But when it comes to the global village,
please don't speak about democracy.
Don't ask for any allocation of power on
the basis of our share of global
population. We want to keep our
privileged seats and that's you can see
that contradiction there very clearly
and that contradiction also means
that they're laying the seeds for
trouble that is coming.
Because if the global village council
at the end of the day doesn't represent
the views of the majority
of the population of the world, they can
become irrelevant.
And so I've always said having served on
the UN Security Council that the UN
Security Council is going to face a
major dilemma.
And the dilemma is quite simple. You can
keep your composition
with British and French as permanent
members and you lose your credibility.
But if you want to keep your
credibility, then you got to change your composition.
composition.
That's the dilemma. And the obvious
solution is the credibility of the UN
Security Council is much more important
than its composition. So bring in the
new powers and certainly bring in the
powers that are rising.
So I hope that as a result of our
discussion today, we can work together
and try to persuade the west that the
world has changed. Let us all adapt to
So uh thank you Kesha for the wonderful
talk and normally as a commentator or
I'm supposed to disagree but frankly I
don't disagree with anything you say. So
let me push it in a few uh directions.
Um first of all here in Hong Kong we
strongly value the freedom of speech.
But I'm going to ask for one tiny little
constraint because as you know my home
country is Canada and we've been subject
to unprovoked bullying by a large
neighbor to the south. So please don't
mention the name of that political
leader otherwise I might have a panic
attack. So that's the one constraint and
I I'm glad you didn't mention it just
now. So other than that feel free to say anything.
anything. >> Um
>> Um
the first uh I mean on if the security
council is so difficult to reform
um I mean what about alternative
international organizations? I mean
maybe that's where there's more promise.
Could you do you have any ideas about
that? Is it bricks or or which which
would it be? I mean, if the if the
sounds like the security council really
is almost impossible to reform, I mean,
even today, frankly, like there's no
nobody no political representatives from
Europe, you know, or or from North
America. So, I mean, they're not really
open to this sort of suggestion, it
seems to me. So, maybe we need to look
outside that think of alternative
organizations. Could you any ideas about that?
that?
>> Well, you're you're absolutely right. By
the way, I'm glad you um mentioned
you're from Canada. I should add I'm an
honorary Canadian since I got my
master's degree from Dalhauszi and I
also spent 10 years serving as a
non-resident high commissioner of
Singapore to Canada. So I I've
discovered by the way that uh I'm sure
you many of you know that Canada is one
of the nicest countries in the world and
suddenly Canada discovers that being
nice to your neighbor for 50 60 years
means nothing
and and in some ways I'm glad you raised
that issue
because there's one point I didn't
emphasize at the beginning of my remarks
which is that geopolitics
is the most cruel game in the world
and we are today
in terms of geopolitical shifts of power
experiencing far more geopolitical
shifts of power and I gave you some
example than any other time
and it's very important therefore for countries
countries
even nice countries like Canada
have got to understand being that being
nice is not enough that you got to learn
to be very geopolitically shrewd and
cunning and machave valiant if you're
going to survive in this world and I
would say in terms of our world order
you're absolutely right there are it's
very difficult to adapt the established
top level institutions UN IMF and so on
so forth there are other instit
institutions that are rising in an ad
hoc fashion and clearly among these organizations
organizations
some are sunrise and some are sunset. So
I give you the obvious example. Uh until
recently one of the most powerful organizations
organizations
was the G7 countries, right? Was the
United States and uh six other European
members plus the European Union. And at
one time when the leaders met all the G7
leaders look equally strong. Today when
you watch meetings of G7 leaders, it's
like Snow White and the Seven Dwarfves.
And you know, I'm not even exaggerating.
And I mean I one of the one of the photographs
photographs
that will go down in as one of the
defining moments of the 21st century
is the photograph you saw recently of
President Donald Trump in his white
house sitting at the desk and all the
European leaders were sitting in the
sofa like children in front of their
school teacher. I mean that photograph
was so damning.
And this is the same Europe that says we
will not give up our seats. We are very
powerful. They behave like school
children. And and and but that's an
illustration of how power shifts have
happened. By contrast, if you look at
BRICS, right? Uh Brazil bricks is
Brazil, Russia, India, China, South
Africa. That's clearly a sunrise organization
organization
because a lot of countries are applying
to join, right? It's it's interesting
one uh no one no one's applying to join
the G7 and but it breaks everyone is
rising but that's an example of how
power is also shifting but there are
also another another important
organization which I think right now is
having a rough time which is the G20.
The G20 at the end of the day will
become more significant uh in the
decades uh to come. And the G20 as you
know was formed as a result of a global
financial crisis
and initially the only the um finance
ministers used to meet but after the 200
uh 8 2009 financial crisis uh even
George W. Bush convened a meeting of the
G20 leaders to try and deal with the
global financial crisis. So that's an
example of how there are various forms
of adaptation taking place. But these
forms of adaptation are not enough. So
so it's important therefore for
especially the Asian countries to work
harder to say that their voice must be
represented much much more strongly.
>> Okay, great. Um, one question. The two
huge powers that could pose an
alternative to a kind of west- ccentric
order obviously are China and India and
you know both countries very well and
you're sympathetic to both which is kind
of rare and so and the ties seem to be
improving now. What can they do further
to improve ties to form some sort of G2
again? What what any suggestions along
those lines?
>> Well, I mean the the China India
relationship I think you should all know
is very complicated. uh and right now
well actually until about 3 4 months ago
uh relations between China and India
uh they were not bad
they were very bad
I mean they were not they were not
talking to each other all right I mean
I'm sure you all aware that after the
clash that took place in Galwan in June
2020 China and India ties and in the
nose dive. Uh fortunately in the last
few months, step by step, their ties
have been improving and I think it's
likely that Prime Minister Modi is going
to go to China
uh for the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization meeting I think uh at the
end of this month and that's a big deal.
It's a really big deal that the prime
minister of India is going back to uh
China. But I think for the China uh
India relationship uh to improve
uh a lot more work uh needs to be done
uh by both sides. And here I must say
that uh if if I had been given this talk
here even 4 months ago I would have been
very pessimistic
about China India relations. But we must
thank one gentleman for significantly
improving China India relations and this
is the gentleman he said whose name I
should not mention
but I have to give credit where he's due
and President Donald Trump's decision
to impose a 50%
tariff on India
is one of the biggest shocks that India
has ever got in recent times. times. But
more than that, you know, as you all
aware, India and Pakistan also had a
military clash
uh a month or two ago. And after the
military clash, President Donald Trump
invited the chief of army of Pakistan
for a special white house lunch.
And the Indians saw this as a slap in
the face for them.
And so there is now even as we are speaking
speaking
a tremendous amount of re uh evaluation
going on in Delhi about where India's
place in the world is and yeah we are
now in the midst you're going to watch a
kind of a transition
uh that is that is happening. So on the
China India front hopefully things will
be much better by the end of this year.
>> Great. Thank you. Um, so a few more
minutes left and then we open it to Q&A.
One little question about Hong Kong
since we have many people here from Hong
Kong. I mean as you know the one country
two systems it pulls in opposite
direction or at least seemingly opposite
direction. So my first question is how
can Hong Kong how can Hong Kong
strengthen its commitment its national
identity its commitment to China as a
political identity without weakening the
two systems? Any suggestions along those
lines? Well, I think the one country,
two system is actually a brilliant solution
solution
uh to the the question of how you
integrate uh Hong Kong into uh China.
And I think that the important thing is
that I believe China realizes
that Hong Kong is a better asset to China
China
if it actually keeps his differences
rather than dissolving the differences
and becoming just like any other Chinese
town or city. and in fact is the differentiation
differentiation
is therefore becomes an asset uh to
China. So if you can keep up your your British
British
uh uh what they call common law
traditions which is what we have in
Singapore also and you keep that going
and you keep up your modern business
practices and everything you you are
Hong Kong is therefore a bigger asset uh
uh to China but it's important therefore
that the leaders of Hong Kong
communicate that much more strongly.
both domestically
and internationally
because I think that frankly and in my
my sense is that at the end of the day
Beijing wants Hong Kong to succeed. >> Sure.
>> Sure.
>> And part of the reason why Beijing wants
Hong Kong to succeed is because the
United States doesn't want Hong Kong to succeed.
succeed.
I mean I mean it's a fact. I mean it is
I I I told you earlier on that
geopolitics is a cruel business right in
some ways paradoxically incidentally
because President Trump is one of the
least ideological presidents of recent
times he as you know he has doesn't pay
much attention to issues like Hong Kong
and Taiwan but his predecessor did and
so for that reason if if if if If if if
China sees that Hong Kong is under
threat, it's in China's interest to see
the success
>> of Hong Kong. But one last point about
people and I I used this analogy before
in the US China contest, Hong Kong is
going to become a political football.
And if you are going to be caught in a
geopolitical game,
the Hong Kong establishment
must develop geopolitical instincts
and understand the game that is being
played and then understand sometimes
when to dodge, you know, when the arrows
are coming.
>> Great. We're rapidly running out of
time, so let me ask a few quick more
personal questions and also with quick
answers if you don't mind. Um, I loved
your memoirs as you know. Um, and
there's a few things about it that I
want to ask a little bit. Uh, first of
all, you you you mentioned that you're
kind of fond of Karl Marx and also in
your interview with Brian, you also
mentioned that. So, can you go a bit
more detail? Which part of Marx do you
like? Is it theory of alienation of
exploitation? Is it communism as a
higher ideal? What part of Marx do you like?
like?
>> Uh, have you got three hours?
Just one minute, please.
>> Well, I mean, I I I was, you know, I
wrote my basically I wrote my master's thesis
thesis
uh comparing the concepts of freedom and equality
equality
in the writings of u KL Marx and John
RS. John RWS by the way is the greatest
uh American philosopher of the 20th
century. Brilliant guy. And I when I
started my research I thought my
sympathies would be more with John RS
than with KL Marx. I ended up actually
sympathizing with KL Marx more because
at the KL Marx will go down in history
as probably the most brilliant thinker
on social and political issues. So his
whole concept of substructure and superructure.
superructure.
So we all think that the way we think
about our society
is a result of our imagination,
rationality and all that. He said no
what emerges in your society
is a consequence of the economic
distribution of power
and where that economic power is
distributed then decides what kind of
society you will have. And that was one
of the most brilliant insights
and no one else before KL Marx came out
with that and and so when and don't
don't read Dus Capal but if you can read
the earlier essays of KL Marx they are
absolutely brilliant
and and I think even Ross would
acknowledge that about KL Marx.
>> I think we should teach Marks in Hong
Kong schools. Um, so thank you. Maybe
just one last question since we're
running out of time. Um, who is your
favorite political leader? First among
the dead and second among the living. [Laughter]
[Laughter]
>> Well, uh, among among the dead is is
easier, uh, for me. It's, uh, certainly
Lie Kuwanu.
And you see because I
I I had an opportunity one of the
greatest privileges of my life is that
I've shaken hands with world leaders,
you know, dozens of them. And none of
the ones I met actually
actually
were as politically shrewd, frankly, as
politically cunning as Lie Kuanu was.
And I tell you I was in 1999.
I was in a room like this small room but
uh all CEOs and and people like George
HW Bush was there, Henry Kissinger was
there, Zabit New Brzinski was there, uh
Sam Huntington was there, you know,
really formidable meeting and at that
meeting there was David Frost
interviewing George HW Bush. And David
Frost asked George HW Bush, you met so
many world leaders, who's the one world
leader who impressed you the most?
Within a split second, George HW Bush
said, Lee Kuwanu.
So, you know, that that shows you that
uh among the the the he was an amazing
figure for a for a leader of a very
small country, his influence was
outsized. Okay. So that among the now
among the living is very difficult question.
>> My name is Eddie Tam. Thank you very
much. Uh brilliant uh presentation. Uh
I'm very happy also that uh India and
China's relationship seems to be
improving in the recent months. Uh and
you mentioned several times about the
restructuring of the security council. I
think on record if I'm not mistaken
actually uh the US, Russia, UK and
France are in support of uh India's rise
to be accepted into the security council
as permanent member. But I think on the
record actually China is the only one
which stands in the way. Am I correct
that I've just checked that there could
be hints of uh China dropping their
opposition. I I hope that happens. But
so that doesn't seem to drive with your
explanation that it's UK which stands in
the way and they don't want to give up
the seat. Yeah, maybe they don't want to
give up the seat but they they seem to
support the inclusion of India but
whereas China for now I think does not.
Well, um I I my my first response to you
is uh whenever countries say in public
that they support India, be careful
because it's often the countries that
are supporting you that are the ones
that are best at undermining you. And
I'm I by the way I've seen with my own
eyes okay countries that in public would
say of course we support India's
inclusion but then what you do the way
you the way you prevent reform
is that you introduce what I call poison
pill amendments
and when you put in a poison pill amendment
amendment
you ensure that nobody can accept it and
therefore there can be no reform and
therefore India cannot get in. You know
there are ways and means of uh your real
position is not what your public uh
position is and and so you you you I I
I'm not sure for the record exactly what
China's uh position is. I don't think
China has opposed uh India's uh
admission but I I don't I don't but I
don't know whether or not China has
publicly uh supported also uh any
countries but I I do believe that it is
in China's national interests
to see a different UN security council
and I would say don't listen to what
countries say
observe what is their national interests
and that that will tell you what their
real position will be. Incidentally, in
my book, the great convergence, you'll
find that I have proposed a 777 formula,
seven permanent members, seven
semi-permanent members, and seven uh
elected members. And the reason why I
propose seven semi-permanent members is
because for every country that wants to
get in, there's a neighbor that says why
not me. So India wants to get in,
Pakistan says why not me. Japan wants to
get in, South Korea says why not me.
Brazil wants to get in, Argentina says
why not me. But the most brilliant
ambassador to the UN I remember was the
Italian ambassador. Because in the 1990s
when everybody was pushing for Japan and
Germany to become permanent members, the
Italian ambassador got very upset. He
says, "Why are you pushing only for
Japan and Germany, we Italy, we lost
That's a true story.
Amazing. But I tell that story to tell
you that the opposition to reform
is very deep, very sub subterranean,
very cunning. So don't pay attention to
public statements. Watch what's going on underground.
underground.
>> We we had a question from Professor
Brian Wong. >> Okay.
>> Okay.
>> Okay. Um, thank you very much, Professor
Shaw. I very much appreciate
your time and it's an honor to see you
here in Hong Kong again. Um, I get a lot
of questions from young secondary school
students and university students in Hong
Kong who are bright, ambitious, and want
to contribute towards uh, foreign policy
and want to pursue a career in foreign
policy. But as it stands, I think Hong
Kong youth often struggle with um
entering into the mainland foreign
ministry system and also making a
difference for their own country which
is China. What advice would you give to
Hong Kong youth if they want to pursue a
career oriented around international
affairs and what advice would you give
to uh the government in relation to
cultivating future diplomats on behalf
of China? Thank you.
Well, I think one one lesson I learned
now I mean since I I I I was in the I
was a career diplomat for 33 years and
I've stepped down clearly uh I've now
been independent for 21 years
and you can make a difference on the
global scene by serving as a diplomat
and I enjoyed my 33 years as a diplomat.
I mean that my I learned more from my
two years as being ambassador on the UN
security council than I learned the
previous 30 years because I learned how
how naked power is. Joe when I tell you
that geopolitics is a cruel game.
I can say that with great conviction
because I saw with my own eyes how cruel
it is. I've seen it and but at the same
time you can also make a difference internationally
internationally
and globally through various public uh
fora and and speaking out and so on so
forth. So there are lots of opportunities
opportunities
uh in in terms of speaking out uh in
indentational. I know that you have done
it, Brian. Uh Daniel has done it,
Chungli has done it. And I would say
yeah, there are many opportunities
uh to make a difference because at the
end of the day, if you are able
and I have discovered that in if you
want to change anything internationally,
don't appeal to ideals,
don't appeal to principles,
appeal to the national interests of the countries.
countries.
And so when if you want to try and
change the China India relationship,
I try to explain to my Chinese friends
and to my Indian friends why it is in
their respective national interests to
make the changes not out of high high
principles or ideals because at the end
of the day the real interests matter
much more than all these ideals do. >> Yes.
>> Yes.
Thank you. Um, Saluch Chan, if I might
uh switch gear a little bit, just ask a
question about global finance. So, you
talked about the structural change that
we've seen, but the global financial
structure infrastructure is very much
still denominated and anchored in the US
dollar. So global trade, access to
finance very much depend on access to
dollar including in places like Hong
Kong. So how do you see this dollar
dominance and the global financial
infrastructure that's still very much
anchored in a say US- ccentric system
affect the path of globalization or
structural change going forward? How
does that affect dependence on dollar if
I might just ask that? M
>> well you're you're absolutely right. Uh
the dollar is completely indispensable
to the global financial system.
uh the dollar will remain the global
reserve currency for decades to come and
even even if the Chinese economy becomes
bigger than the US economy and I think
it could happen in let's say 10 to 15
years from now the US dollar will still
remain as the global reserve currency
that's a fact but at the same time some
of the recent actions that have been
taken by by the US, by the West have led
to countries questioning their reliance
on the US dollar. So for example, the
seizure of the Russian assets of $300 billion
billion
is clearly illegal under international
law. You can't do it unless the UN
Security Council mandates it. Right? But
that gesture
has led to many countries saying
now we got to hedge our bets. We cannot
put all our reserves in US dollars. So
there's a progressive
very slow process of moving away from
the US dollar in many years. And the d
the other danger that the US dollar
faces is that you you now right now for
example when China exports cars to Argentina,
Argentina,
it gets paid with dollars. Argentina
exports beef to China, it gets paid with
US dollars. Surely you can create
a new mechanism
using blockchain technology and all that
to bypass the US dollar. That hasn't
happened yet.
But the the pressure to look for
alternatives has grown significantly. So
I mean I don't see any substitute for
the US dollar in the near future. But
the reliance on the US dollar will
>> Hi, my name is Alvina. Um historically
you'd see that a nation's naval power is
extremely important to its um country's
power position in the world. So in this
current shift in uh the structural shift
of power, how important is a nation's
naval capabilities and its naval bases
and how does it play a role in terms of
geopolitics and would this actually play
into US interest because its global
naval power in terms of resisting change
that you've mentioned. Thank you.
Uh well I must say that's a very
profound question on the role of navies right
right
um you know I I I'm not a military expert
expert
but I have in in in my book has China
one actually did say that it is now pointless
pointless
for United States to send aircraft carriers
carriers
close to China. Right? Remember that in
the in Bill Clinton's time in 1996
when there was a crisis between China
and Taiwan,
Bill Clinton sent two aircraft carriers.
He didn't actually send them through
Taiwan Straits, but he sent them close
enough to say, I can control the Taiwan
Straits with two aircraft carriers. 1996,
1996, right?
right?
29 years have passed.
tomorrow if there's a crisis with within
China and Taiwan US cannot send two
aircraft carriers because the nowadays
with you know hypersonic missile technology
technology
aircraft carriers have become sitting
ducks in fact it doesn't make sense to
build aircraft carriers because you know
they were supposed to be invincible
now they're not invincible anymore and
so and you can see therefore for
actually again I'm I'm not a military
expert but what's been the most
effective in most of the recent battles drones
drones
small little drones
and they're amazing that they the amount
of damage that can be done by little so
so the nature of warfare is changing but
at the same time I also want to emphasize
emphasize
that even though there are wars in
Ukraine there are wars in Gaza uh
most countries in the world
are coming to accept that wars are stupid
stupid
you know and the good news for the world
is that wars in general are sunset
industry there are some places where
they break out and I you know I I run
something called the Asian peace program
by the way at the national university of
Singapore you can google and look at it
at our website and I assert there that
wars are a result of geopolitical incompetence.
incompetence.
The Ukraine war could have been avoided
if the Europeans had shown some
sensitivity of what are Russia's core
national interests. It doesn't mean that
the Russian invasion of Ukraine is
justified, but you could have prevented
it by acknowledging that Russia has got
legitimate security interests. And in
the same way, the Gaza war could have
been avoided if the West had tried
harder, push harder for two-state
solution between Israel and and
Palestine. And I I and I say this
publicly to my Israeli friends. If I as
a friend see you walking towards a
cliff, do I say stop or do I say keep
walking? I see Israel walking towards a
cliff cuz Israel has alienated global
public opinion. Very unwise, right? So
but the but in in the end of the day if
you want to prevent wars to go back to
my earlier point you got to be very
cunning in geopolitics
understand country's core interests and
work around them.
>> Thank you. We had two questions very
quick. Uh each of you speak on that
table very quickly please.
>> Yeah well thank you. Thank you professor
Mabubani a journalist from the south
media group. I want to ask a question
goes to the uh well you are hailed as a
muse of the Asian century. So how should
China, India, ASEAN and other Asian
countries can coordinate to join the
shape a more inclusive and sustainable
Asia century while based on especially
in global governance, climate response
and maybe uh multilateralism. Thank you.
>> Take the other question as well.
>> Yeah, thank you Ambassador Mubani. So my
name is Leon from Chinese University of
Hong Kong. So my question is about the
idea of multipolar world. The idea of
multipolar global order. So on the one
hand it could be more inclusive, more
diversified and more plural but on the
other hand it could be more fragmented
right more unstable. So I would like to
seek your view about uh this multipolar
global order how it's going to look like
in the coming decades. Thank you.
>> Two small questions with short answers.
>> And Mari says I have two minutes.
Uh, by the way, I should emphasize at
the outset and since you very kindly
called me ambassador up there, I'm no
longer an ambassador. I don't speak for
anybody. I speak only for myself. Uh,
and Singapore doesn't have the trai
American tradition of keeping your ti
title as ambassador. Uh, first question
on the Asian century.
Um, as you know, I did publish a book
called The Asian 21st Century. And the
good news about the book was that the
publisher target was 20,000 downloads.
Instead, there have been over 4.1
million downloads of the book in 160
countries. The reason I mention that is
that that's an indicator that the world
is psychologically preparing for an
Asian century. And um but for that to
happen, it's very important that Asia
remains at peace. And it's actually
quite amazing that we in Asia haven't
had a major war. We've had skirmishes,
but no major war uh probably since 1979.
It's quite amazing. And this is a
stunning feature of Asia that no one has
acknowledged. But it's for us for the
Asian century to happen our priority
number one is make sure there's no major
war and even though there'll be
competition there'll be rivalry there'll
be tensions okay we can manage that but
you got to avoid a major war that's
condition number one to ensure that the
Asian century happens because I think
the economic development momentum is
real and will continue now on the
multipolar world. I think the multipolar
world is already here. It has arrived.
But of course, it's fluid because some
of the powers are going up, some of the
powers are are going down. But this
multipolar world uh I think Changi you
quoted uh JD Van saying about how the
multipolar world has come and uh it is
actually good for the world that we are
having a multipolar world instead of
uniolar or bipolar because in a
multipolar world there are more actors
and so there more balancing forces at
play in conflicts and and rivalries.
ries and it creates a multipolar world
creates more opportunities. So for
example, the the the third independent
poll that's going to emerge now clearly
is India because there was a time when
it thought that India might be moving
closer to the US thanks to President
Donald Trump. That's not going to
happen. And so India is going to move
back towards playing a more independent
poll and that creates options for
countries. And so therefore it's it's a
very fluid dynamic changing world but
the result will be a multipolar world.
Great. One very quick 30 seconds. What
Well, I think my next project is quite simply
simply to
to
continue what I said in my remarks today
to try and persuade the West that it is
wiser for them
to create room for other new powers to
emerge cuz that will create a better
world for the West.
Kishor Makbubani has just painted a grand portrait of our era. An
grand portrait of our era. An unprecedented global reshuffleling of
unprecedented global reshuffleling of power using the stunning economic
power using the stunning economic reversals between the EU and China, the
reversals between the EU and China, the UK and India and Germany and ASEAN. He
UK and India and Germany and ASEAN. He has made an irrefutable case that the
has made an irrefutable case that the rise of the east and decline of the West
rise of the east and decline of the West is already a reality. But his sharpest
is already a reality. But his sharpest critique was aimed directly at the West,
critique was aimed directly at the West, particularly Europe, for how it
particularly Europe, for how it systematically resists this new reality
systematically resists this new reality by using its privileged positions and
by using its privileged positions and core international institutions like the
core international institutions like the UN and the IMF.
UN and the IMF. And his most profound warning was this.
And his most profound warning was this. as a 12% minority in the global village.
as a 12% minority in the global village. If the West continues to violate the
If the West continues to violate the very democratic principles it champions
very democratic principles it champions by clinging to power, it will ultimately
by clinging to power, it will ultimately render itself irrelevant and lose all
render itself irrelevant and lose all credibility. This deep analysis of our
credibility. This deep analysis of our great transformation leaves us with
great transformation leaves us with several questions to reflect on. First,
several questions to reflect on. First, when faced with the irrefutable data
when faced with the irrefutable data that Mak Bubani presented, to what
that Mak Bubani presented, to what extent is the Western world genuinely
extent is the Western world genuinely unaware of the depth of this great
unaware of the depth of this great shift, or is it consciously choosing to
shift, or is it consciously choosing to pretend to be asleep? Second, when the
pretend to be asleep? Second, when the West champions the values of democracy,
West champions the values of democracy, representation and fairness at home
representation and fairness at home while defending its disproportionate
while defending its disproportionate privileges on the world stage.
privileges on the world stage. Does this represent a fundamental and
Does this represent a fundamental and unsustainable contradiction?
unsustainable contradiction? And finally, and most critically, in the
And finally, and most critically, in the face of this new world, is the West's
face of this new world, is the West's best survival strategy to continue
best survival strategy to continue resisting change until it is left behind
resisting change until it is left behind by history, as Machbubani warns, or
by history, as Machbubani warns, or should it, as he suggests, proactively
should it, as he suggests, proactively embrace this transformation and find for
embrace this transformation and find for itself a more sustainable and more
itself a more sustainable and more respected new place in a multipolar
respected new place in a multipolar world. We are eager to hear your
world. We are eager to hear your thoughts in the comments below. If you
thoughts in the comments below. If you believe this analysis of the great
believe this analysis of the great transformation of our time has provided
transformation of our time has provided you with a valuable and
you with a valuable and thought-provoking perspective, please
thought-provoking perspective, please like this video and subscribe to our
like this video and subscribe to our channel. Thank you for watching.
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