This content outlines a strategy for trading the over/under 2.5 goals market on betting exchanges, emphasizing the identification of value through statistical analysis and in-game observation to manage risk and achieve consistent profits.
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on average the premier league sees just over 2.5 goals per football match although in the
1819 season that topped out at an all-time high of 2.82 goals however there's really value in
backing or laying the 2.5 goals market alone so in this week's upload i'm going to take
you through the strategy and process of trading the 2.5 goals market on betfair's exchange the
three main areas that we're going to focus on are where the value is in the 2.5 goals market
hidden ways to identify value and how you can implement the trading strategy and process for
2.5 goals by the end you'll have a better idea on how to approach 2.5 goals hopefully leaving
you cashing out on a regular basis now this is going to be a very good video in comparison to
normal so make sure you hang around to the end we're also going to do 100 pound cash giveaway
inside this video so stay tuned to see if you've won so where is the value in 2.5 goals obviously
we're looking for situations where there's the least possible risk with the maximum possible
reward the point where there's no financial downside in the marketplace but an increased
chance of a successful trade be it because something's happening on pitch or something that
happens in the marketplace now where is that the answer of course is unique depending on specific
set of variables in that particular situation as we'll get into in just a second but there's
one key theme that runs amongst all of this and that is time because it's not necessarily a case
of where but when something will happen now if you can work out when there's most likely to be a goal
you've found yourself an opportunity to enter the marketplace at minimal risk because in the over
under 2.5 goals market there's only two potential outcomes so historically speaking 30 of premier
league games see a goal in the first 15 minutes and 75 of games see a goal in the first half this
is the kind of data that's extremely useful when it comes to finding your window of opportunity
by the way previously we uploaded a video about premier league prediction and live statistics
in play so if you're interested in that check out the link below we'll put in the description
for that alternate video and where you can find those statistics so on an individual
level per game you need to be looking out for things like when a goal is likely to be scored
if the teams in play are currently performing in line with their recent form
xg can be extremely helpful in particular when it comes to this one and if they have an above
average scoring rate this study that we'll share on screen done by smarkits shows there's a direct
correlation between team strengths and first goals these statistics only paint a basic picture though
so next i want to take a look at the hidden bright spots that will show you where you can find value
in the 2.5 goals betting market now if you're finding this video useful or interesting and
wouldn't mind please take two seconds just to tap the like button down below there really appreciate
that also we've got some interesting football strategy videos coming up in the coming weeks
so don't forget to subscribe to the channel and tap the notification bell to be notified
as soon as they're uploaded but now let's get on with the hidden places where you can find value
in a 2.5 goals market where they are and how you can find them now the problem with finding value
is that instinctively people look in the wrong direction altogether they're looking at the wrong
things they start looking for predicting the overall match result or if there's likely to
be more than 2.5 goals in that particular game when they should be focusing on things like the
average goal time of the chosen teams in the particular match if there's added incentive to
score early or late in this particular match and also if the home team is going to have an easy
time of controlling this particular match now you may have seen last week's both teams score video
where we talked about stuff like that but you see the secret is spotting where the value is at that
particular point in time once you do that you can exploit that value over the short term and lock in
a profit by cashing out now i'd advise looking at situations like this and asking yourself
is there likely to be a goal soon identifying that stalling point in play can be an extremely
valuable thing this is where our football trading strategy around 2.5 goals comes into play because
we need to identify a position within the match and the marketplace for the 2.5 goals market
where there is a natural stalling point there's an imbalance you know between support and resistance
what's actually happening on the pitch and in the marketplace giving us more potential upside
than down so to identify that there's two things that we can take a look at first of all we can see
the in-game action sometimes it's very obvious when the flow of play has completely changed
and secondly we can look at the marketplace because the natural time decay within the market
will stall and slow down as the traders and bettors that are in that 2.5 goals market start
to react and change their betting behavior now i'm going to share with you a few arbitrary pointers
which will help you anticipate and recognize one of these situations ahead of time and clearly see
it for what it is as it actually happens because that point is the key point in time where you want
to strike in the unders and over 2.5 market you want to open your position so the first one is
average goal time so if we're betting in play opening a position trading the match as it's
happening then we want to know what the average goal time is for that particular team we don't
want it to be broad we want to be very specific so i'll share with you a link in description down
below but you can find teams individual specific goal times which will then allow you to understand
when you see this change of play on pitch and you see the market sentiment change where you know
the time decay no longer wants to continue it's very typical of the situation there's an increased
chance of a goal and therefore you can find yourself that in balanced situation that we're
looking for the second one is their current form so are they playing in line with their current
form obviously we've got xg ratings if they've recently been playing to a certain xg and they're
performing in line with that right now coupled up with the average goal time then you can be more
and more confident and clear about what you're actually doing in terms of opening the position
or leaving a position open for a little bit longer or even close that out if that's not transpiring
on the pitch so they're really important pointers and then finally the exchange market activity is
often very reflective of the likely chance so it's not unusual to see situations we'll share one on
screen now where the price completely stalls for a substantial amount of time offering you know very
little downside if you're to go against the price action just to reiterate here we're not looking
to make a monster profit on a one-off short-term situation we're looking to find situations where
there's an imbalance where statistically over the longer period of time we're going to emerge on top
so we're limiting our risk the whole time that is the main objective now if this is making sense to
you logically and helping out take a second just to tap the like button down below i also want
to announce this week's competition winner paul harrison he's just 100 pound cash for commenting
on one of our previous videos and subscribing to this channel so if you want to be on the chance
of winning in the future hit the subscribe button down the bottom below now and also leave a comment
on this video about what you thought provide us a little bit feedback so we can tailor future
content now the last thing i want to move on to is implementing your strategy for trading at 2.5
goals market seeing what we're actually gonna do so 2.5 goals is an extremely popular marketplace
there's a lot of liquidity a lot of volume passes through it and it can be highly attractive because
you can get large stakes matched however with there only been two possible outcomes to the
overs and unders market it's important to have a structured systematic way that you approach every
single market over and over again managing your position effectively so with that in mind here
are a few pointers first of all you want to do some pre-game research touching on those previous
points i've already mentioned average goal times current xg if teams currently performing in line
with its potential because when it comes to opening a position in play things are going to
happen quite quickly emotions can become engaged quite easily but you want to manage your position
as effectively as possible and the best way to do that and understand where you should be opening
your position is by knowing what you expect to see now part of that planning can also be the second
point i want to make which is breaking up stakes because as i've already previously mentioned it's
not necessarily a case of where but when so you can't always choose when a goal is going to go in
when the flow of play is going to change you can observe and react to that which is a large
part of trading in place successfully but if you break up your stakes so that it's logical
and you can offset your position potentially maybe opening sort of the first third of your trade at
one specific point in time when you see what is happening that you expect from your pre-game
research then staking up a little bit further you know five minutes afterwards coming towards
the end of the first half that's highly advisable too because it gives you you know the best average
position you can have if a goal goes in in that mean time then you're obviously going to be in a
positive position anyway so i'd advise uh breaking up your stakes and averaging out that position
what that shouldn't be confused with though is the complete opposite of risk management
which is doubling up stakes because you're losing you need to do this with a conscious reason which
is logical and beneficial to your overall position still managing your risk all the while so the next
point in managing your position has to be managing the what ifs and it's important to realize that
you should know the answer to this before the game even starts before your trade is open before you
are engaged in that trading position so what are you going to do if a goal goes in straight away
and the trade travels in your favor are you going to lock out the profit indefinitely and walk away
from it hedging up completely are you going to close out your net position and let it run as
a free bet further into the game are you going to offset your position so that you're managing your
risk but you still believe the trade is going to move positively in your favor or not you know if
this doesn't happen in game then how long is it going to be until you exit the trade have you
already picked a predefined exit point considering that you know it may be a losing trade be it on
time or activity in game it's absolutely crucial that you understand all these different variables
how the trade is going to plan out as well as what you expect to see on pitch before you even
open the trade to manage your position effectively so when it comes to trading 2.5 goals markets on
the betting exchanges it's really important that you look at statistics the information
available to you you have some kind of trading plan and you're looking for that imbalance in the
market that's going to favor you over a longer period of trades even if this particular trade
doesn't go in your favor so do your homework know your stats and understand where those bright spots
are likely to be before the match even begins as i mentioned in a previous upload last month about
premier league prediction check out the end screen it's been one of our most popular videos today
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